This Is Not the Election David Eby Wanted

This isn’t the campaign David Eby and the BC NDP election team wanted.

They expected a pleasant victory march, talking about Donald Trump as Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s Conservative Party of BC self-destructed. There would be wacko fringe candidates to mock, spectacular own goals by Findlay’s incompetent team and a divided right to split the vote.

Then Findlay quit and the centre-right quickly coalesced under Conservative interim leader Lorne Doerkson. The Conservatives still provide a home to plenty of candidates with extreme views, as BC NDP press releases regularly point out. But hopes of a campaign primarily focused on the weaknesses and craziness of the other guys have vanished.

Which, as David Eby showed last week, is a problem for the NDP.

Eby unveiled a reasonable measure to control grocery prices Friday as part of an affordability package. Products such as milk, eggs, cheese, butter and poultry have wholesale prices set by marketing boards. The government proposes to allow a fixed markup by retailers, theoretically lowering prices.

It could work, and it recognizes a role for government in protecting people from unaffordable food.

But the reporters quickly noted the NDP had promised a $1,000 payment per family to help with food costs during the last election campaign and then never delivered. Which was also a reminder to voters the promise came just two years ago, highlighting the fact this was an opportunistic, unnecessary election.

For the NDP, running on their record is a lot more difficult than attacking the Conservatives.

And so far, the Conservatives haven’t given the New Democrats much to attack.

Doerkson is the well-respected MLA for Cariboo-Chilcotin, first elected in 2020. He’s a former community newspaper publisher and rode broncs in local rodeos. He seems a throwback to the old Social Credit MLAs, known and respected in their communities. (Look for a Steve Burgess profile of Doerkson later this week.)

Last week he revealed the party’s campaign position on taxation, promising no new taxes and no increases.

It’s bad policy. The economy is constantly changing and there are opportunities for smart taxes that increase fairness.

But Doerkson’s pledge isn’t scary. Iain Black, for example, who unsuccessfully ran for the Conservative leadership, promised a 20 per cent personal income tax cut, which would increase this year’s deficit — forecast to be a record $13.8 billion — by $3.8 billion, or 28 per cent.

A big tax-cut promise would have let Eby ask what services the Conservatives would cut to make up for the lost revenue. Doerkson took away that opportunity.

The NDP also had every reason to be happily anticipating vote splitting on the centre-right. Four days before the election call, eight former MLAs had patched over, as biker gangs say, and joined CentreBC. If they had stayed, CentreBC and the Conservatives would be competing in key ridings, handing wins to the New Democrats.

But their membership pledges were apparently written in disappearing ink, and once the election was called seven of them scampered back to the Conservatives.

MLA Elenore Sturko stayed to lead CentreBC into the election, running in Surrey South. That should give the NDP a chance at the seat.

Elections BC closed candidate registrations Sunday. The Conservatives are fielding a full slate of 93, the NDP 92, the Greens 73, CentreBC 35, and OneBC 33. (The NDP couldn’t field a candidate in Peace River North, where Independent incumbent Jordan Kealy, facing sexual assault charges, will run against Conservative Curtis Whitford.)

OneBC, the fringe social conservative party led by Dallas Brodie, will field 33 mostly irrelevant candidates. Brodie’s presence in the Vancouver-Quilchena race could give the NDP an outside shot there.

And the Greens’ slate includes former chief coroner Lisa Lapointe, running in Saanich South, an NDP stronghold until Lana Popham retired this year.

The first half of the campaign has been very good for the Conservatives. A new Ipsos poll finds the NDP and Conservatives effectively tied at about 40 per cent support of decided and leaning voters.

That’s a seven-point jump for the Conservatives since Ipsos released a pre-election poll and a five-point drop for the NDP, likely in part because of Eby’s inability to justify his snap election call. The Greens are at 10 per cent, with OneBC and CentreBC at two per cent each.

The first two weeks of the campaign have been kind to the Conservatives. The NDP has barely three weeks to change the momentum.