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Please Advise! Measuring the NDP’s Chances

On the cusp of a new leader, a New Dem MP joins the Liberals. Prognosis, Dr. Steve?

Steve Burgess 12 Mar 2026The Tyee

Steve Burgess writes about politics and culture for The Tyee. Read his previous articles.

[Editor’s note: Steve Burgess is an accredited spin doctor with a PhD in Centrifugal Rhetoric from the University of SASE, situated on the lovely campus of PO Box 7650, Cayman Islands. In this space he dispenses PR advice to politicians, the rich and famous, the troubled and well-heeled, the wealthy and gullible.]

Dear Dr. Steve,

There was another floor-crossing this week, and this time from the NDP caucus. Shortly after giving a speech in praise of NDP leadership hopeful Avi Lewis, Nunavut MP Lori Idlout revealed that she had joined Mark Carney's Liberals, pushing them that much closer to a majority government.

What does it mean for the federal NDP, Dr. Steve?

Signed,

Left Behind

Dear LB,

You probably shouldn't blame Idlout for wanting to leave the NDP. It's tempting to join a real party, sort of like Pinocchio wanting to be a real boy. As a Liberal you get official party status, which comes with electricity and indoor plumbing. The NDP lost official party status in the last election. Now the NDP caucus is like an episode of Survivor — every morning somebody has to make fire, and they're down to the final six.

Talk about soaking up spills. Mark Carney works better than the leading brand of paper towel. Conservatives, New Democrats — if the People's Party had any MPs, Carney would probably absorb them too. The Liberals are becoming the Pokemon Party — they catch ’em all.

While it's true the Conservatives have lost three floor-crossing MPs, it has to feel worse for the NDP — they just saw their caucus reduced by 14.29 per cent. Worse still, Nunavut represents roughly 21 per cent of the Canadian land mass. This is a territorial loss to rival what Czar Nicholas II frittered away. Is Idlout putting the “end” in NDP?

In a written statement, Idlout said her move was the result of “pressures on the well-being of people throughout the North.” Nothing about free Netflix or a caucus lounge omelette bar, so perhaps that wasn't it. Perhaps she was concerned about the growing influence of Conservative MPs and realized that, as of now, the best place to debate them is within the Liberal caucus.

The defection certainly casts a pall over the NDP leadership race, which is currently tallying votes. Avi Lewis is believed to be the front-runner, despite having failed in two attempts to get elected to Parliament. That former negative might now become a positive for Lewis. Since he doesn't have a seat, at least there's no chance he'll cross the floor. On the other hand, leadership candidate Heather McPherson is a sitting MP. That's dangerous. These days, any opposition MP is like a swimmer who suddenly hears the Jaws theme.

Carney has been working Parliament like a filter feeder, cruising through the water, sweeping up plankton. But in a stunning turn of events, the Liberals might actually resort to the ballot box. Three April 13 byelections could put the party into a majority position, with only two victories needed to lock it down. It's a novel method of enlarging your caucus, which is traditionally accomplished with free snacks and a rocking Christmas party. But hey, it seems Carney will try anything once.

Meanwhile interim NDP leader Don Davies said he was “very disappointed” in Idlout's defection and added he was “increasingly concerned by the way that Mr. Carney is trying to stitch together a majority government in this country.”

Wait, Dr. Steve is having a déjà vu here. Who does Davies sound like? No, not Ed Broadbent; not Jack Layton; oh yeah, Pierre Poilievre. The Conservative leader just accused Carney of “backroom deals” to “seize a costly majority that voters rejected.”

This is kind of sweet, actually. Davies and Poilievre could form a brand new version of the Blues Brothers, crying into their beer and harmonizing on “Nobody Knows You When You're Down and Out.” Drinks are on Pierre, though. Davies doesn't have the budget.  [Tyee]

Read more: Federal Politics

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