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Tyee's Climate Change Crash Course: Part 8

How much reduction in fossil fuel use is needed to avert disaster?

By Eric Nadal, 1 Feb 2013, TheTyee.ca

Global warming resources

Horizontal blue bars indicate the warming potential of burning the remaining global reserves of various fossil-fuel types; the red bar shows what would happen if all were burned. The vertical red line indicates how much average temperatures have already risen as a result of human carbon emissions. (Creative Commons)

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[Editor's note: Welcome to final day of this course, including here a quiz you can take to test your knowledge. Pass it and you can download a certificate affirming your graduation. You can find the previous seven installments of this course and catch up by going here.]

Part 8: The Math of Carbon

The CO2 we've let loose in the atmosphere is changing our climate, and everything that relies on it, from water to food to industry and wildlife. We can ignore the risks. We can panic. Or we can stop, collect ourselves, and do what our parents might have told us to do any other time we found that we had overextended ourselves. That is to say, we can make a budget.

The goal can't be to completely eliminate any and all climate change. It's too late for that, and in any event climate will change on its own. Rather, we need to stop turning fossil fuels into atmospheric CO2 as quickly as we can, to limit further climate forcing and keep the resulting changes to a pace that we and other species can hope to adapt to.

The forcing we're feeling now resulted from the approximately 500 billion tons -- 500 gigatons (GT) -- of carbon we have released into the atmosphere so far. There are roughly 5,000 GT of carbon left in proven fossil fuel resources around the planet. We're releasing about 10 GT of that into the air every year now, and our emissions are growing. If fossil fuel consumption continues to rise we could release another 1,000-2,000 GT over the next 90 years.

Most of the 5,000 remaining gigatons of carbon is in the form of coal. If we rapidly phase out coal-fired power plants for generating electricity (instead using solar, geothermal, biomass and wind power for example), we will limit our other carbon "spending" to at most 1,200 GT. That's still probably enough however to melt the near-surface permafrost and release its own 200-400 GT of susceptible carbon. The total amount of carbon released would therefore be closer to 1,400-1,600 GT.

That is the amount projected to turn nearly a third of our farmland into desert, extinguish most species, and destabilize the entire biosphere.

Thus, while phasing out coal is necessary to change our trajectory, it's not enough.

To cut our carbon further, we can abstain from developing so-called "unconventional" oil and gas, such as oil sands, shale oil and shale gas, instead running our vehicles on, say, a combination of biofuels and electric batteries. That would cut our emissions by another 700 GT and cap our future carbon spending at 500 GT -- roughly corresponding to the remaining "conventional" oil and gas resources.

That could be enough to avoid melting the tundra.

Of course, any more forcing of the climate -- even by under 500 additional gigatons of carbon -- will be damaging and dangerous. But by limiting ourselves to conventional oil and gas, and using as little of those as possible, we can avoid carbon concentrations expected to produce extreme global drought and mass extinction.

Doing that would also give us a chance to prevent the CO2 level from peaking (very far) above 450 ppm, and therefore also a reasonable hope of bringing it back below the ~350 ppm range one day, say within a century. That in turn could be enough to prevent ice sheets from disintegrating at both poles, and sea levels from rising beyond all our ability to influence.

That doesn't ask a really tough thing of us. We're talking here about how we produce electricity, heat buildings and power our machines, not whether we should do these things. Safer, carbon-free forms of energy exist and are being deployed on a large scale already -- just not yet on anything like the massive scale at which we're currently using fossil energy.  [Tyee]

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  • rangerkim

    15 weeks ago

    that other "S" word ...

    Not "sustainable" but "sacrifice".
    We are well past that time when we could have talked about which particular policy would suffice to sustain our lifestyles. We are in the time of sacrifice. We need to reduce CO2 by about 80%; that means giving up your car and your fresh veggies in the winter. We have too many people by a factor of 3; that means no children except for about 10% of us, or maybe no immigration and let the bastards die off in their millions (billions?). Consumption as a way of life has to go; no more cheap grain fed beef, no more electronics toys in every house, shoe collectors will be seen for the deviant fetishists they are and profits and economic growth will be a quaint artifact from the past.
    Sounds impropable, if not downright impossible to me.
    So ... it's the science experiment in the petri dish ... catastrophic collapse.
    It'a a tough prognosis but pretty hard to deny.

  • Booker

    15 weeks ago

    rest of the world

    One hopes that the rest of the world doesn't have as many morons in high places as Canada and the U.S. Europe has made significant strides in transitioning away from the old energy economy. The technology exists now to make that transition, but the big economies have to get to work, and they certainly can't wait for the magic hand of the market to make the change. Unfortunately, we are going to need some hardcore regulations to make this work. Canada is politically in a terrible position to make progress on this issue.

  • NickS

    15 weeks ago

    Never mind it is total nonsense

    You WILL get poorer. You WILL reduce your living space and the amount and type of food you eat.
    After the planned collapse, the "sustainable" world planned for us will be far more like North Korea or China. Rangerkim just gave the game away when he substituted "sacrifice" for "sustainable".

    Agenda 21 is the action plan for total control of the world's population.

    "This plan is a whole life plan. It involves the educational system, the energy market, the transportation system, the governmental system, the health care system, food production, and more. The plan is to restrict your choices, limit your funds, narrow your freedoms, and take away your voice. One of the ways is by using the Delphi Technique to 'manufacture consensus.' Another is to infiltrate community groups or actually start neighborhood associations with hand-picked 'leaders'. Another is to groom and train future candidates for local offices. Another is to sponsor non-governmental groups that go into schools and train children. Another is to offer federal and private grants and funding for city programs that further the agenda. Another is to educate a new generation of land use planners to require New Urbanism. Another is to convert factories to other uses, introduce energy measures that penalize manufacturing, and set energy consumption goals to pre-1985 levels. (In the United States), another is to allow unregulated immigration in order to lower standards of living and drain local resources.

    All of this sounds unbelievable until you have had direct experience with it. You probably have, but unless you resisted it you won't know it's happening."
    http://www.democratsagainstunagenda21.com

  • allatlast

    15 weeks ago

  • NickS

    15 weeks ago

    Don't let reality get in the way

    Inconvenient truth: Sea level rise is decelerating
    "A paper published in the Journal of Coastal Research finds that sea level rise around mainland Australia decelerated from 1940 to 2000. According to the latest NOAA sea level budget, global sea levels rose at only 1.1 - 1.3 mm/year from 2005-2012, which is less than half of the rate claimed by the IPCC [3.1 mm/yr] and is equivalent to less than 5 inches per century. Contrary to alarmist claims, sea level rise decelerated over the 20th century, has also decelerated since 2005, and there is no evidence of any human influence on sea levels."
    " The analysis reveals a consistent trend of weak deceleration at each of these gauge sites throughout Australasia over the period from 1940 to 2000. Short period trends of acceleration in mean sea level after 1990 are evident at each site, although these are not abnormal or higher than other short-term rates measured throughout the historical record."

    So while you wait for the sea flood that never comes, a smart meter controls all your appliances and spies on you.
    http://www.nbcnews.com/id/45946984/ns/technology_and_science-security/#.UQwTGVeC_h0

    The control grid planned for us is all based on the lie that CO2 controls climate.

  • Birch

    15 weeks ago

    Thank you.

    This has been an exceptionally clear and well-organized series. Well done.

    As for those who continue to resist, there is no arguing with a nut.

    One of your most telling observations is that it is unlikely that the same scientific methods that brought us antibiotics, computer chips, space travel, and so on have suddenly gone wildly astray.

    Can we get the whole series in one document (including links)?

  • NickS

    15 weeks ago

    "As for those who continue to resist"

    We know the difference between "scientific methods that brought us antibiotics, computer chips, space travel" and the pseudoscience of climate models based on a false value for the effect of atmospheric CO2 and the reality that there has been no warming for 15-17 years.

    This graph illustrates just how far the various Warmist models diverge from real life.

    "The NASA/Hansen Climate Model Predictions Vs Reality, Major Fail"
    http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c017ee7d9e743970d-pi

    When you have absorbed that, look at the rest of Science Vs Pseudoscience data.
    http://www.c3headlines.com/modern-temperatures-chartsgraphs.html

    Then remember the meaningless "sacrifice" you are being asked to make.

  • ireckon

    15 weeks ago

    Consensus

    "Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you're being had."
    Michael Crichton

  • Booker

    15 weeks ago

    Lie with Statistics: C3 Headlines edition

    NickS's right-wing blogger is typical of the blatant dishonesty of, not just the denialists, but of the contemporary Conservative Movement generally.

    http://thesnufkin.blogspot.ca/2011/03/how-to-cook-data-set.html

    They have no shame, and for the most part, seem completely impervious to rational argument. It is a movement of trolls.

  • Hakuin

    15 weeks ago

    hey nick

    tell us about the black helicopters

  • Hakuin

    15 weeks ago

    irec:

    there is scientific consensus gravity works. What are they REALLY planning?

  • Hakuin

    15 weeks ago

  • NickS

    15 weeks ago

    I've already shown that the the Cons go along with this

    and have already siphoned off $400 Million of our money to the Bankster Climate Cabal.
    http://unfccc.int/files/adaptation/application/pdf/fast_start_finance_progress_report_canada_-_final.pdf

    This is a Globalist plan, and Harper is nothing, if not a Globalist.
    Agenda 21 is the basic plan to standardize everything to Globalist specifications, crowd people into cities and remove freedom of choice about almost everything.

    GLOBALIZATION IS THE STANDARDIZATION OF SYSTEMS THROUGH INVENTORY, MONITORING, AND CONTROL.
    Rosa Koire was interviewed by Joan Herron on Malaspina Radio recently, exposing how it is being implemented here in Canada.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=bdHohf1Le6U#!
    Rosa Koire- Behind The Green Mask

    Rosa is a Liberal Democrat Lesbian. How politically correct is that

  • Hakuin

    15 weeks ago

  • Hakuin

    15 weeks ago

    liberal democratic lesbians oh my!

    nicky, is there ANYONE you don't piss off?

  • NickS

    15 weeks ago

    Yeah, and Rachel Maddow isn't a MSM mouthpiece

    keeping the false Left/Right paradigm alive.

    Maybe, just maybe, heads will be withdrawn from sand/asses in time to stop the tide of the New Feudalism.
    http://www.plyrics.com/lyrics/jellobiafra/newfeudalism.html

  • the crucible

    15 weeks ago

    My summary

    This has been a very interesting and well laid out series. I agree with all the basic science fully, although like any skeptic I have a certain reserve about details in the modeled projections.

    The facts of the matter are that there is a problem. We are facing climate change. It doesn't matter if the causes are primarily man made, somewhat man made, or if man's contribution is minor (the uncertainly factor). We have to address it.

    Climatology models are getting very good, but they aren't perfect. Lack of perfection, doesn't mean you are justified in ignoring them. Like any statistics based model, they are a projection of "if this goes on", but based on a massive amount of variables and the "this" can change in midstream. They should be treated as warning signs, not hidebound fate.

    With this in mind, the recommendations in this series are spot on. We must reduce our footprint.

    But that isn't enough. The forces in play already will adversely affect our future, even if we do everything recommended very quickly.

    We need to find tools and mechanisms to reverse the global trends. An example I pointed out earlier in the series, is a "solar powered CO2 scrubber" in development. See:

    http://www.diginfo.tv/v/12-0223-r-en.php

    In addition, we need to look at our current infrastructure and plan for the chance we will fail. In the spirit of the "realist" who plans for the worst but hopes for the best.

  • Booker

    15 weeks ago

    Stupid Party

    You know things might be changing when Bobby Jindal, creationist, right-wing, kook and (naturally) Governor of Louisiana, says the Republican Party has to stop being the "Stupid Party".

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/13/bobby-jindal-gop_n_2121511.html

    Slowly, ever so slowly, reality is getting under the brim of their tin foil hats.

  • ireckon

    15 weeks ago

    Focus

    So while we're busy trying not to exhale what is our govenment doin? Anyone notice our military is helping the French prop up a military dictatorship in Mali? We are bombing people in mud huts with fighter jets and the NDP, Liberals and Greens all support the mission. The French get access to cheap uranium for their "green" economy and we get the gold. Everyone OK with that? Tyee talkin about it?

  • JordanRoszmann

    15 weeks ago

    Worth every penny

    This series is exactly why I became a "Tyee Builder." Thank you Eric for the best climate journalism I have read.

    I understood the thermodynamics of climate change pretty well already, but I have learned more this week.

    The comments have been entertaining as well. Thank you particularly to Hakuin and crucible for babysitting the trolls.

  • Hakuin

    15 weeks ago

  • Story

    15 weeks ago

    So, what have we learned?

    Okay, now we've run the course. What have we learned?

    Paul Craig Roberts contends . . .

    " In my 35 years of experience in journalism, I have found that most readers read in order to confirm what they already think and believe. It is the same for the right-wing and the left-wing. They cannot escape their ideological boxes and are creatures of their biases. They want their prejudices vindicated and their beliefs supported. A writer who tells them something that they do not want to hear receives abuse. These readers cannot benefit from facts and new information and change their minds. They already know everything and only want information that supports their beliefs and advances their agendas. ” Paul Craig Roberts, January 03, 2013."

    . . . is he right? What have we learned?

    I lived in Mexico City for two years in the late '90's. The city's reputation for air pollution was unimpeachable. It was not unusual for me to awaken in the middle of the night with a clogged nose, coughing. Schools closed when the IMECA reading exceeded 200: as it often did!

    Despite that AGW was unheard of. Among my friends, academics and professional colleagues there was no mention of global-warming but lots of talk about air pollution.

    IMECA today, 0800 hrs, reads . . .

    http://www.calidadaire.df.gob.mx/calidadaire/index.php

    . . . Mala @ 109 with many areas of the city at considerably less.

    Chilangos are doing something right!

    So what to make of this hysterical exercise we have just gone through?

    "What have we learned?".

    Well . . .

    We have an abundance of gullible people ready to believe anything: and pay for it.

    Some are extraordinarily malleable when pecuniary benefits accrue.

    We have learned that anecdotal evidence refuses to comply: air temperatures are unusually low.

    I live on the waterfront, I have sailed the Salish Sea, with great joy, for ten years, and I see no evidence of a rising levels.

    Judging by today's responses then what have we learned?

    Absolutely nothing!

  • Booker

    15 weeks ago

    Really?

    I live on the waterfront, I have sailed the Salish Sea, with great joy, for ten years, and I see no evidence of a rising levels.

    Seriously? That's your data? Sigh.

  • Story

    15 weeks ago

    How many years before we start to glow then?

    Well . . . errrrr . . . yes Booker.

    Ten years and no tangible evidence: what the hell else do you need?

    You're out of bricks kid!

  • Talon

    15 weeks ago

    Muchas gracias amigos.

    Thank you Tyee for a really well written course on Climate Change from Mr. Nadal. I know that the human journey will continue and face serious consequences for allowing Hollywood et al to convince us that we can keep on living an unsustainable dream forever. But now that we are aware of our circumstances let us each and every one of us do what we can each day to participate in human recovery programs. None of us individually can stop the growing problem, but collectively we can move mountains. For Canadians, get out there and stand with the First Nations in protest to Omnibus bills C31 and C45 which remove all ecological safeguards on Canada's river, streams and lakes. Be Idle No More Canada. If we don't fight for our planet the capitalists will definitely destroy it with the likes of Harper, Kent, Baird, Moore et al. As Michael Moore famously said, "The capitalists will sell you the rope you will hang him with if he can make a profit on the transaction." So take a piece of rope and carry it with you and every time you meet a capitalist, show him the rope you will hang him with. It will take some time but every vast journey begins with the first step. Start walking Canada.

  • Fiat lux

    15 weeks ago

    The Salt Lake Tribune:

    The Salt Lake Tribune: Climate Change: The next Civil Rights battle.

    http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/opinion/55693599-82/climate-civil-rights-battle.html.csp

  • Booker

    15 weeks ago

    Story

    Ten years and no tangible evidence: what the hell else do you need?

    Have you read this series? Have you read any of the science? Sailing in the Salish Sea looking at the shoreline is not generally considered an accurate means of detecting small rises in global ocean levels. The data are easily accessible to anyone interested, so if you want the info, do some reading. Just try to avoid the pseudoscience spread by the Heartland Institute and Koch Industries.

    Amazing. And sadly typical.

  • Story

    15 weeks ago

    "Sigh. And sadly typical."

    Oh dear Booker, you are in a bad way.

    I was an AGE-ista when I believed what my prof said. Then I started to look a little closer: that was four or fice years ago and I'm not at all sad.

    Let's start with your friend posting his phoney hald-graph and look a the real one . . .

    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

    . . . and . . .

    http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html

    Stop being sad Booker. Learn grow: it's never too late!

  • Story

    15 weeks ago

    Correction . . .

    AGW-ista!

  • Story

    15 weeks ago

    Sorry Tyee, here's the corrections . . .

    "Sigh. And sadly typical." Oh dear Booker, you are in a bad way.

    I was an AGW-ista when I believed what my prof told me. Then I started to look a little closer: that was four or five years ago: now I'm not at all sad.

    Let's start with your friend posting his phony half-graph and look at the real one . . .

    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

    . . . and . . .

    http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html

    Stop being sad Booker. Learn! Grow! It's never too late!

  • Booker

    15 weeks ago

    thanks Story

    Story -- thanks! You are so sweet!

    I'm glad you are not at all sad, and that the professor is not bothering you any more. Those professors think they are so smart!

  • ModestyBlaise

    15 weeks ago

    Question

    "To cut our carbon further, we can abstain from developing so-called "unconventional" oil and gas, such as oil sands, shale oil and shale gas, instead running our vehicles on, say, a combination of biofuels and electric batteries. "

    The mania for biofuels has caused the price of maize to double over the past five years. This causes increased poverty for hundreds of millions in Latin America that use corn as their food staple. Wealthy north Americans buy ethanol fuel to ease them from their fossil fuel guilt as Latin American children go even hungrier than ever. The call for more biomass power, that also uses sugar and corn as a base, further compounds the tragedy.

    Andrew Nikiforuk said it. This change in attitude is faith driven. The question is whether the faith is a blind one. Has well reasoned intellectual consideration led to an ideology that is driving this massive shift in resources? Is the simple hatred of petroleum and expanded and globalized consumerism driving a faith based cabal of agitators to force this hardship of increased food costs on these people? Why take food from their mouths to run your cars instead of developing nuclear energy? Are we entering a time of a new faith based society?

  • ireckon

    15 weeks ago

    News Flash

    All c02 haters, please go to the Tyee's crash course climate quiz and get your diploma. You will easily become a "qualified settler of arguments with climate change deniers." With this powerfull tool of science you can quickly put an end to this foolish debate.

  • Hakuin

    15 weeks ago

    The same pople who distort the energy markets

    For their profit also distort that of food

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2008/jan/28/whyishempoffthebiofuelme

  • tamikenn57

    15 weeks ago

    Unconventional Source Estimates

    Do the unconventional oil and gas include the Green River oil shale and known methyl hydrate sources respectively? Both of which are using some very large resource estimates.

  • freewilly

    15 weeks ago

    I can accept...

    I can accept global warming as a real consequence of man putting excessive amounts of co2 into the atmosphere.
    What I have difficulty with are the proposed solutions to reduce greenhouse gases.
    How do you stop mass consumption and our addiction to junk?
    Will our current economic system allow for the needed changes, do we really 'trust' the system and our leaders?

    Is climate change the most important issue we face? I still dont think so. Judging from some of the comments and reponses, climate change is a religion to some, while its a conspiracy to others. I'd say mental illness is more pressing.

    The first distinction climate scientists make is manmade vs natural causes of extra CO2. Are we not natural? Its in our nature to alter the environment towards our own needs and goals, but we are rare in that ability for sure.
    In North America we are all aboute waste.
    waste water, wasted lives, wasteful existences, wasted opportunities, waste garbage, waste line, wasted (stoned) etc...
    Our nature has been hijacked by a free market neo con economic system, (Ed talks about it)
    My parents grew up in a world where you couldn't waste anything. I have a book somewhere issued by the british government on how to manage you rations of beef, how to cook and what you can get away with. (I think this is where head cheese came from)
    That was during the 2nd world war when we wasted lives.
    Its also been part of our nature to be creative, to conserve, to be frugal, fruitful and fair.
    I can fill my mind with facts and information, and thanks for this series, but we knew long ago we should have been weened off of fossil fuels long ago (Procrastination).

    When a new source of energy which is clean abundant and available to all, we will have to deal with 'power' or loss of, another part of our nature.

  • NickS

    15 weeks ago

    Why, freewilly?

    "but we knew long ago we should have been weened off of fossil fuels long ago (Procrastination)."

    I can understand not wanting the real pollution associated with petroleum and natural gas development. but technology to handle development safely, exists. We also know that the whole "CO2 controls the climate" business is totally nonsensical.

    So, leaving out the Climate Meme, what else is there for denying people cheap reliable energy and the jobs that go with it.

    Also, why do few people point out the undeniable evidence of the massive geo-engineering program which blocked out today's beautiful sunshine.
    That is the real man-made climate change.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdO8I3p6zJ4&feature=player_embedded

    BTW, head cheese dates to at least the Middle Ages and multiple variations on the basic recipe exist throughout Europe.

  • Fiat lux

    15 weeks ago

    Head cheese has been very

    Head cheese has been very common all across Europe for ever. My family loved it, I could never stand the damn thing. Or any fish.

    As far garbage is concerned, we never had any in my 17 years in Hungary, 3 years in Austria and 7 years in England. The cities had some pickups, but in rural areas people had some hole in the backyard for sweepings etc. Everything else was used up one way, or another.

    The first time we had any garbage, even then just very little, for 3 families in the same house, when we moved to Vancouver in 1955.

    Now we live in a small acreage community of about 300 people with a garbage dump close to the size of what Vancouver's was for a million in the '50s and '60s.

    The whole world is now being covered under garbage as the benefit of "gloalization" .

    I have to take a truckload to the dump from 2 old people, every few months.

    Ed Deak

  • Hakuin

    15 weeks ago

  • the crucible

    15 weeks ago

    @willy

    You have pretty well hit the nail on the head.

    We are the only "natural" causes of CO2 (and others) that have any measure of control over our effects, locally or globally. This isn't so much about climate change, it's about mankind and a stable global society. I doubt very much we will "destroy the earth" through climate change, but we can shift it in such a way that man, or at least modern society, is no longer viable.

    This is a multi generational issue. We are dealing with issues such that only the "old people" (like lux, myself, and others) can see the localized effects in our lifetimes. But the problem does exist.

    The need for energy resources is constantly growing, The "action plan" has been to ramp up extraction on existing energy resources. This meets the immediate short term need, but increases the environmental change rate in many ways (by an uncertain factor).
    There are also a lot of dollar signs being seen by those that own or control those existing resources.

    The obvious alternative is to turn to new energy sources, preferably ones that have a markedly lower environmental impact. Solar, wind, wave, or even nuclear - preferably fusion. The problem is the economics of these sources are worse than even the high prices we are seeing in the existing energy resources. All of these will need long term investment to become viable (scale, innovation, or just pure science). But then we come back to an investor choosing between short term high gains through existing resource extraction, and the longer term required for these kinds of projects.

    Another alternative is to reduce the emissions during extraction and use of existing resources. This is being done, but still not enough to keep pace, especially with the increased extraction rates required by modern society.

    One more alternative I don't see discussed very often, is using technology to reduce the effects on a wider scale. Like the "Solar CO2 scrubber" I mentioned earlier. These kinds of technologies not only reduce impact, they lead to us being able to influence "natural" sources of environmental change.

    And here we are arguing if such a problem even "exists". If you don't want to believe the science, just ask the 60 or 70 year olds. Or you can wait until you reach that age - but that will be way, way, too late.

    So what can we do about it? Lots of things. EG:

    For starters, how about "tax incentives" for all the above, while removing the current ones in place for existing resources. It will drive prices higher, but that will go to shifting the economic balance the other way.

    I haven't seen much investment in clean fusion research in a long time. The word "nuclear" scares way too many people whose understanding stops at fission.

    And interesting little technologies like that "CO2 scrubber" I pointed out.

  • freewilly

    15 weeks ago

    Head cheese

    Head cheese with some good marketing, will be a big hit again! We will find culinary uses for insects and love it.

    'I can understand not wanting the real pollution associated with petroleum and natural gas development. but technology to handle development safely, exists.'

    Sure no doubt all sorts of technology exists and will be developed. Like Cruc's panasonic photosynthesis scrubber which will end up cleaning up factory emissions if nothing more , But it could be much more.
    Techology will never address our insatiable need to want more. More what? energy no, just crap and consumer junk.

    Doesnt it seem wierd we have made so many leaps in technology, yet when it comes to energy creation we havent even come up with a decent battery. Excuse is always...well it should be on the market in anther 5 years

    'So, leaving out the Climate Meme, what else is there for denying people cheap reliable energy and the jobs that go with it.'

    Maybe its running out? Maybe its becoming more difficult and expensive to obtain? If we dont develop a clean, cheap 'star trekky' kind of energy people will suffer the ecolgy will suffer, and/or we will be paying much more for everything.

    Big oil corporations stand to make a fortune wether GHG predictions are true or not. I bet like the tobacco companies they are more aware of the problem than we are. Maybe these corportions are really framing the issue for us peons.

  • Story

    15 weeks ago

  • Hakuin

    15 weeks ago

  • Story

    15 weeks ago

    http://whatreallyhappened.com

    http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/climategate.php

    God help us! "poop head". Childish! Tyee editors must hang their heads in shame.

    Can't you come up with something more adult than that?

    QED

  • Hakuin

    15 weeks ago

  • Hakuin

    15 weeks ago

  • freewilly

    15 weeks ago

    re An allegory

    The aliens wont destroy us quite yet, but they arent going to intervene and give us assistance as that would amount to intergalactic welfare.

    And they are definitely not going to eat us, ( not North Americans) we have too many toxic drugs in our bodies, cancer drugs, THC, nicctine and tar, anti-depressants etc...

  • freewilly

    15 weeks ago

    oops

    last responce was to the Fox News story....

  • freewilly

    15 weeks ago

    under the influence

    CBC's 'under the influence' has to be one of the most interesting programs I've listened to. I highly reccomend it. They go into depth on how marketeers capture peoples attention.
    How is this related to climate change? Well as a marketing strategy Max Burgers from Sweden have tied their products to climate change and the environment. By asking consumers to eat less they have become more popular than Mcdonalds (in Sweden)

    http://www.maxburgers.com/sustainability/Carbon-offsetting/

    Part of the solution? maybe....

  • ModestyBlaise

    15 weeks ago

    Whatever Happened To...

    ...the good doctor (unlucky 13) Viner?

    "According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".

    Heavy snow will return occasionally, says Dr Viner, but when it does we will be unprepared. "We're really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time," he said."

    Thirteen years later he's probably retired. To someplace nice and warm. Ten to one he didn't throw away his boots and gloves.

    Weather Forecast: UK

    "Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

    Strong winds and wintry showers on Tuesday. Cold on Wednesday with wintry showers and bitterly cold northerly winds. Fewer showers on Thursday with bright spells, but still cold.

    Updated: 1525 on Sun 3 Feb 2013.

    LATE NEWS.
    We found him:
    "he was appointed “global director” at The British Council, advising on its climate change programme. Now he has just walked into a cushy job at the £1 billion global consultancy Mott MacDonald as “principal advisor for Climate Change,” where presumably he'll be among the beneficiaries of Britain's vast and pointless DFID budget."

    It's a business.

  • the crucible

    15 weeks ago

    Yes, but...

    I have been following this "debate" for over 25 years, closer to 30.

    Although the spectrum of responses has widened somewhat, the same questions and issues are still there. The biggest difference is that we now have answers, at least some of them, and these answers all point to there being a very real problem. Whether we are looking at a global 2 degree rise by 2100, or 4 degree, or perhaps 5-7 is still up in the air, but the fact is we will be dealing with the effects of climate change.

    In the spectrum of responses, the ones that totally deny the science, and the ones that shrilly push the panic button might have opinions, but neither contributes to finding workable solutions.

    If we ignore those extremes, we are left with a relative "center" of people that recognize the issues, and are looking for workable answers. Even this spectrum is wide enough for heated debate.

    The comments I find the most telling about human nature, are the ones that admit there is a problem, but take a position of "yes, but think of the economy". Sometimes in derivative ways like food, water, education, or aid. I really have to wonder what kind of future they envision for their grandchildren. Do they really think "money" will magically solve these problems somewhere in the next 87 years?

    With all respect to industries that have done work to reduce their impact, and continue to do so, it is simply not enough to keep pace with the problem.
    From a business perspective, what do you do with a division that constantly loses money? No matter how much you tweak it? Would you continue to "invest" in such a division for 87 years, until it bleeds the company dry? When do you start firmly restricting it's "budget"? When do you start investing in alternatives?

    Historically, we (mankind, society) should really have started "doing something" about this in the 20th and 19th, and even 18th, century. Pushing for steam powered, rather than petroleum, cars is one small example. To some extent, our ancestors can be forgiven because they "didn't know". The same will NOT be true when our descendants look back at us. Remember that as you look in the mirror.

    Mankind has come a long way in the last 300 years. Technology has given us the tools to thrive and expand to all areas of the planet. We have started to expand into space. But there is a cost, and lessons to be learned.

    "With great power, comes great responsibility."

  • Hakuin

    15 weeks ago

    so cruc,

    what should we be backing? Space elevator? L-5 colonies? Lunar colonies? Asteroid deflection? Asteroid mining? Orion type drives? Mars colony? Asteroid colonies?

  • the crucible

    15 weeks ago

    Priority

    Your list isn't anywhere near long enough, but I'll address what you have.

    Asteroid mining and asteroid deflection are 2 sides of the same coin. Both are just in reach of current technology.

    Orion drives are pretty crude in the big picture. I'd rather see ion drives, not only more efficient and cleaner but the tech is more generalized and can be adapted to other materials easier. Both are rudimentary in current tech, lost of room for development.

    Lunar colonies are possible today, but very expensive. And there are a lot of lessons to be learned.

    L5/L4 colonies would only be viable as an adjunct to asteroid mining. This might happen anyway.

    Materials science is good enough for a space elevator on/off the moon today. Mars might be possible. We have a ways to go before we can do it for Earth.

    Mars, and asteroid, colonies are a long ways away. The materials are there, most of the tech is there, but the ROI isn't - yet. Remember your history on why "colonies" get founded.

    Dreamer..

  • Hakuin

    15 weeks ago

    why colonies get founded...

    various reasons, not the least of which the last place got/was ruined.

  • Hakuin

    15 weeks ago

  • the crucible

    15 weeks ago

    why colonies get founded...

    If you are looking for an escape hatch;

    I'd recommend a combination of asteroid and comet mining, moon colony, L4/L5, and a lunar-space elevator. Anything less wouldn't have enough diversity to be long term viable.

    I'd also recommend a heavy investment in nanotechnology, tele-operations, and closed ecology research.
    This isn't like a vacation where you can run out and buy something you forgot. If you forget something long term critical, you're toast.

  • freewilly

    15 weeks ago

    radio telescope

    So l4/l5 are 'pockets' within the oribiting bodies of the moon and earth where a space station might be located without any drift?
    Cool!, lets stick our future space stations there!
    There was a news item about the dominion observitory near penticiton upgrading their equipment looking for dark matter?. Making maps and so forth
    I have been up there a few times 30+ years ago when vacationing in the okanogan. That place has been around a long time and quite the drive back in the day. Quite cool canadians are on top of this sort of science

  • Trevor Cooper

    15 weeks ago

    I think humans are horrible

    I think humans are horrible at getting on the same page - especially on a global scale. We need to on climate change, but we'll probably continue to drag our feet. That's why we need game-changing technologies to overcome our human nature.
    It's too bad nuclear is so hated -- it's actually very clean, safe, and efficient (but it is considered a toxic pariah and it is seen as too economically painful upfront).
    Nuclear and geoengineering might be some of our most effective options, among the millions of smaller renewables and efficiency measures we can and are adopting. Unfortunately, electric cars are only as clean as the grid they run off of.
    Don't turn away from technology. It got us into this mess, certainly, but it will require further technology to get us out. We can accomplish it, but we need to innovate, and we need to take some risks (like risking messing with geoengineering to remove CO2 and reduce warming, or risk possible, but low-likelihood nuclear disasters to avoid otherwise inevitable mass-extinctions.)

  • Hakuin

    15 weeks ago

    Nuclear would be fine

    IF there were scienists instead of businessmen and politicians running it.

  • ModestyBlaise

    15 weeks ago

    Apocalypse Not

    WIRED Magazine studied the science and raises some important facts.

    http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/08/ff_apocalypsenot/all/

    (By the way, 4.5k readers 'liked' this to their Facebook account.)

  • the crucible

    15 weeks ago

    Lagrange points

    These are effectively points where the gravity of 2 bodies equalizes in the orbit. There are 5 Lagrange points (L1-L5), but the L1-L3 points are closer to "points" and any drift (effects from other bodies) will get greater and greater. L4-L5 points are nestled into a "pocket" as you state, and orbital dynamics tend to keep things inside that "pocket".

    The most stable L4/L5 points in the solar system are the Sun-Jupiter points, which contain a collection of asteroids (leading and trailing Trojans).

    There is also a L4/L5 for the Sun-Earth relationship. It is actually more stable than the Earth-Moon L4/L5 points, but obviously farther away and follow a solar orbit instead of a lunar one.

    The James Webb telescope will be situated at the Sun-Earth L2 point (joining 2 others already there), on a direct line between the Sun and Earth, but almost a million miles further out.

  • Hakuin

    15 weeks ago

    At least 4500 stupid people on Facebook?

    Really?!

    http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/culturelab/2010/06/matt-ridley-comments.html

  • freewilly

    15 weeks ago

    @trevor

    'That's why we need game-changing technologies to overcome our human nature.'

    Hey Im on exactly the same page myself as are many others. We need a plan, a big freaking plan to get out of the dark ages.
    I'm into Fusion, dont undertand it all but I have to trust my instincts and very smart people on this, the holy grail of energy (well for the next few hundred years), we should go for it and support all efforts as a nation. Many have already committed the doe. We backed out of ITER

  • Hakuin

    15 weeks ago

  • the crucible

    15 weeks ago

    Apocalypse Not

    Remember that article, reread to refresh my mind. It's amazing what different people take away. Here's a couple of quotes:

    "Over the past half century, none of our threatened eco-pocalypses have played out as predicted. Some came partly true; some were averted by action; some were wholly chimerical."

    "So, should we worry or not about the warming climate? It is far too binary a question. The lesson of failed past predictions of ecological apocalypse is not that nothing was happening but that the middle-ground possibilities were too frequently excluded from consideration."

    ...

    So what would you consider as a valid "middle ground" temperature rise by 2100? 1 degree? 2? 4?
    Or are you trying to use this article as a reference basis for total denial? If so, you didn't read it completely.

  • Hakuin

    15 weeks ago

    Sounds like a bleedin' toff

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Ridley

    And I think the banking record shows something significant. Like that other upper class twit with the secret magic cure for HIV, I suspect a prviledged upbringing led to magic "thinking".

  • Hakuin

    15 weeks ago

    They keep chipping away willy

    Chipping away

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/01/130131095316.htm

  • ModestyBlaise

    15 weeks ago

    cruc

    In your Magic Circle world it is either one or the other. That's your world where It can never be neither, nor. You believe; full stop. No further discussion required. A Pilgrim seeking a new land free from persecution and ignorance. Interplanetary is probably what you should concentrate on. The Church of Planet New-and-Improved Gaia II leaving on spaceship Mayflower II, real soon. I'll contribute if you direct me to the increasingly ubiquitous 'donate' button. You accept no onus because you have been trained to throw onus onto those that differ from your opinion. Clever, ping pong but not discussion.

  • the crucible

    15 weeks ago

    @Modesty

    I ask questions about your "beliefs" and stated opinions. There are 2 of them in the above comment, preceded by quotes from the article link you supplied.
    You haven't answered either of them.

    I'll let others judge the veracity of how you *did* respond.

    I haven't been formally trained, but I will admit to having been around a few years. My "style" is one that I find leads to true discussion - when engaged in by both sides. Opinions need to be backed by thoughtful analysis and understanding, the "onus" as you state.
    Google searches might be useful, but understanding of what you found is critical.

    You need to understand that, like Richard Muller, I used to be a skeptic. I am also someone that has a strong general science background and digs deeply into the topics.
    From that background I realized that the data had become irrefutable.
    I then looked around at the remaining skeptic arguments (and individuals) and realized that they fell into 2 generalized categories, the ignorant and the wilful (often paid). They were no better than the panic button extreme. If that means I take sharper aim at the remaining skeptics, so be it.

    To be skeptical is a good trait. To ignore the mounting data is no longer skepticism, it's blind belief.

    The data is there, *all* of it. Dig into it, understand it. Base your arguments on that understanding, not the result of superficial search engine results.

    I do have a strong interest and understanding of a variety of scientific fields, and can extrapolate from their current state. That such a background causes you to discount my opinions is more telling about you, than me.

  • Hakuin

    15 weeks ago

    Heh heh!

    It's like watching you pin an eel to a board, the head and tail are firmly tacked but Modest keeps gamely trying to snake the belly back and forth to avoid the inevitable.

  • the crucible

    15 weeks ago

    @Hakuin

    There are times when your verbal imagery can be subtly disturbing - as well as mildly humorous.

    I certainly don't have any conscious desire to pin anyone to a board and watch them squirm. I really can't speak for my subconscious, but am willing to consider the thought when pointed out.

    I'd much rather engage in real give and take discussion that increases understanding, of the topic and the individuals. I honestly try to see past the attack vitriol, and to the point being made. Still, when assessments of my personality are made, I occasionally do respond in kind.

  • Hakuin

    15 weeks ago

    If you want a garden

    Sometimes you have to weed

  • freewilly

    15 weeks ago

    chipping away

    good description, in the future turning matter into energy may be like sculpture and craft. Even more exciting is energy into matter possible but not practical.

    I find it interesting that there are scientists interested in 'fire' and then there are scientists equally interested in super cooling matter, similar and different results, all very promising, yet how do you contain these reactions? How do you build the ultimate woodstove or cooler, its never been done. Yet they are getting closer....

  • Eric Nadal

    14 weeks ago

    Re: Unconventional Source Estimates

    @tamikenn57:
    Good question, and sorry for the lag in responding. The unconventional oil/gas estimates are cited by the IPCC and (as seems to be the norm) they do not include methane hydrate deposits, which they note could number in the thousands of gigatons of carbon. They do include shale oil estimates.

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