Why warming the atmosphere doesn't just cause weather to get hotter.
[Editor's note: Welcome to this daily course launched on The Tyee last Thursday, which carries through to this Friday. You can find previous instalments and catch up by going here. Scientifically trained writer Eric Nadal has created a nine-part series made up of eight short, straightforward, simple to understand classes in climate change, followed by a quiz you will be able to take -- with a certificate to hang on your wall if you pass. Climate Cadet? Gaia Geek? Smarty Boots of Atmospheric Science? Graduates are invited to put whatever they wish on their next job applications. And the planet will thank you.]
Part 4: CO2 and Weather
Climate, it's said, is what you expect; weather is what you get. What that means, is that climate is the long-run probability of a particular kind of weather: gray and wet in November, dry and sunny in August (in Vancouver, anyway). Weather is what happens on any given day -- which may be different from the long-run likelihood, like a cool damp day in August or a sunny one in November. But when climate changes, it also changes the likelihood of our getting certain kinds of weather, or of that weather arriving when we've come to expect it.
Warmer air can now hold more water. And it can also let go of more water at any one time. The result is bigger bursts of precipitation (either rain or snow, depending on season and location) and often flooding as a result. A warmer atmosphere and all that extra water (which releases more heat as it condenses from vapour into rain or snow) also fuel stronger, more violent storms.
Over the last century, the U.S. has experienced a 14 per cent increase in "heavy" precipitation (in the top 5 percentile of events), and a 20 per cent increase in "very heavy" precipitation (top one percentile of all events), even while total precipitation has not increased much. In just the last two years, historic floods struck from Tennessee to Pakistan to Australia. Superstorm Sandy that devastated the U.S. northeast, exemplified how storms, both inside and outside the tropics, have become more intense.
Counter-intuitively, while our climate forcing produces both more heavy downpours and flooding in some regions, it also dries out much of the planet's land surface. That's because the net effect of the extra heat we've introduced is to shift familiar climate zones toward the two poles at a speed even faster than models have predicted. Since 1975, roughly when CO2 overtook other forcing influences, global climate zones have shifted poleward by about 40 km per decade on average. They're moving even faster over land in the Northern Hemisphere, by as much as 60 to 100 km each decade.
Gardeners use plant hardiness zones to know what will grow in their climate. Areas in the pink bands above have moved up by more than one warmth ranking; the red areas by two or more. Click to see an animation of the change. (U.S. Arbor Day Foundation).
In response, the world's high-altitude jet streams, which run loosely along boundaries between climate zones, are also shifting their tracks toward the poles. That in turn is expanding the dry subtropics that include northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. By contrast Canada, further north, is getting about 12 per cent more precipitation than half a century ago -- and 20 more "rain days" a year. So while the atmosphere is now wetter overall, more of that water is squeezed into a smaller area of the globe. To make matters worse, the extra heat at the surface means that soil in already water-deprived areas loses more of whatever precipitation it does receive to evaporation. Between 1950 and 2008, the portion of the Earth subject to at least moderate drought rose significantly, from around 15 per cent of all global land area to around 25 per cent.
And just as wild downpours are becoming more common even while overall precipitation stays about the same, "average" changes in global or regional temperatures obscure a host of unpleasant changes in daily weather. In most latitudes, heat waves are becoming longer and hotter, at the same time as cool summer nights and cold days in winter are becoming rarer.
A couple of things are particularly alarming in all of this. First, we are already seeing a dramatic response from the climate even though a great deal of the additional heat trapped by the extra greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has been soaked up by the oceans, which are very slow to warm up in response. The "thermal inertia" of the oceans' water creates a decades-long lag between the time a forcing influence begins, and the climate's full response. That tells us that we haven't yet seen the full impact of the CO2 in the atmosphere already: that will take decades more to fully emerge.
Heat drives our climate. Warming the atmosphere and oceans is like pushing down on the gas, fueling extreme weather. Click to see an animation of the warming world. (Union of Concerned Scientists)
What else makes our human-induced climate forcing radical is the speed at which it's occurring. We are introducing additional energy into the climate system hundreds of times faster than the forcings that triggered the ice age cycles of the last million years, and tens of thousands of times faster than the long-term CO2 fluctuations that have shaped Earth's geological history.
The fact that we've adapted to earlier, slower changes in climate is no basis for thinking we can handle the changes our current forcing will unleash. That would be like your car taking a sharp corner much faster than you've ever attempted before. Just because you didn't lose control before at 50 km/h, doesn't mean you're safe this time if you take the corner at 150 km/h. Taking it hundreds or thousands of times faster than normal is something you would never attempt.
Congrats, you are halfway through the course!
Tomorrow: Forces trending towards a drought-ridden planet by 2100. Find the entire series so far here.
![[Tyee]](http://thetyee.cachefly.net/ui/img/ico_fishie.png)
Eric Nadal is a Vancouver-based writer and UBC graduate with degrees spanning physics, planetary science, ethics and the philosophy of science. He became motivated to write about climate change when he saw how little time the media had spent talking about the actual physical phenomena and science at the heart of the century's biggest issue. Drawing on his background in both science and philosophy, Eric seeks to equip readers with a fresh and more sharply honed understanding of the problem.
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mememine69
16 weeks ago
Ah the Reefer Madness of Climate Blame
27 years of needless CO2 panic and climate hell death threats to billions of helpless children was a war crime and you lazy copy and paste journalists and news editors have done to journalism and science what abusive priests did for religion.
snert
16 weeks ago
Of course we'll adapt.
"The fact that we've adapted to earlier, slower changes in climate is no basis for thinking we can handle the changes our current forcing will unleash."
'We' will just become fewer in number.
Hakuin
16 weeks ago
Yeah, the thermal inertia
Is what scares me. I suspect we may have passed the tipping point long before we started talking about it. Do you suppose that the only ultimate good that might come out of this is at least a trace of our miserable species getting off this rock? If we hadn't shit in our own nest our stupid complacency would have almost certainly kept us smugly ignoring the next inevitable asteroid strike. "Nah! Couldn't happen to US! We're SPECIAL!" Heh! I can almost hear all the successful species snickering about the special needs hairless apes two galaxies over. Will that be our legacy? A poor ethnic joke?
mememine69
16 weeks ago
Forme climate blame believers are better planet lovers:
*Occupywallstreet does not even mention CO2 in its list of
demands because of the bank-funded carbon trading stock markets ruled by
corporations and trustworthy politicians
*Canada killed Y2Kyoto with a freely elected climate change
denying prime minister and nobody cared, especially the millions of scientists
warning us of unstoppable warming (a comet hit).
*Obama has not mentioned the crisis in the last two State of
the Unions addresses.
*In all of the debates Obama hadn’t planned to mention climate
change once.
Find me one, just ONE single IPCC warning that says a crisis
will actually happen, not just might and could happen. Not one of the IPCC
warnings are without “maybes” and 27 years of "maybe" means it
"won't be" a crisis.
FatherTheo
16 weeks ago
No crisis, you say.
Mememine69 says the IPCC hasn't predicted a crisis. Well, they've predicted widespread extinctions, floods, superstorms, sea level rise, killer heat waves, crop failures, desertification, and the real possibility that parts of the planet will become uninhabitable for human life. Sort of sounds like a crisis to me....
Birch
16 weeks ago
A great visual joke:
A climate change denier rises to his feet at a conference featuring signs and banners promoting a safer, more socially just world to suggest that since climate change does not exist such efforts would be pointless.
NIce work on these articles, by the way. Perhaps you or The Tyee could make them all available over the web as a package at the end of the series.
Illahie
16 weeks ago
I sure wish that I could be a warmist
Then I would be able to say anything I want and not have to worry about the facts.
Hakuin
16 weeks ago
Our you could say something new
Or just shut up altogether.
mememine69
16 weeks ago
Father Theo
So as you say: "widespread extinctions, floods, superstorms, sea level rise, killer heat waves, crop failures, desertification, and the real possibility that parts of the planet will become uninhabitable for human life..."
Correct, they condemn billions of children to "extinctions" and crop failures and...THE END OF THE WORLD! Do you see the millions of good and honest people in the global scientific community ACTING like they condemned their kids as well to a CO2 hell? The exaggeration of "CRISIS" is astounding and all evidence points to it.
If you love the planet, you should be glad, not disappointed a crisis wasn't real after all. Did you want this misery to have been real for my kids? How dare you!!!!
mememine69
16 weeks ago
You climate changers are the real NEOCONS of fear mongering
To you remaining fear mongers; none of you spineless climate cowards would still be shooting your mouths off like this still if there were real legal consequences in a real civilized society for issuing your CO2 death threats to billions of helpless children to your Reefer Madness of climate blame.
NickS
16 weeks ago
Everybody stop breathing!
The average adult expels 44,000 ppm of CO2 with every breath.
That is outrageous. We cause drought and floods simultaneously with every nasty exhale.
The poor oceans, getting so acid that they are still basic and absorbing all that heat from the air and storing in the bottom where nobody can find it, and then releasing it when nobody is looking to produce blizzards in the East and Europe. Everybody knows that if you put warm water on your stove it will turn to ice cubes in no time.
Maybe all that aluminum and barium that's being spread every day up in the sky will help if it doesn't kill us first.
http://www.canadaskywatch.com/articles/lecture/2012/12_03_law_professor_speaks_about_chemtrails.html
woodworker
16 weeks ago
Hardiness zone chart.
This article clearly points out that for Canada Global warming would be a truly good thing. Our one crop areas would become two, and a whole mass of land would now be able to grow crops. Our trees would grow back faster. Really don't think you are right but if you are it should really be good for Canada and all the Northern countries.
the crucible
16 weeks ago
hardiness zone.
"it should really be good for Canada and all the Northern countries."
To a large extent this is true. But it isn't a clear line of "everything just gets warmer nice and evenly". The gradient also gets sharper. Remember the differences between hours of sunlight during summer and winter at the polar ends of the planet. The arctic will actually be better than the antarctic because of the water that will retain/release heat.
Heat is energy. When you add all that extra energy to the atmosphere, storms become larger and more powerful. More H2O in the atmosphere means precipitation will generally be bigger quantities.
It won't help us much if we end up with a 2nd growing belt, and the first one continually gets flooded out by massive rain storms.
The bottom line is we just don't know enough to predict with accuracy the end results. All we do know, is "things will be different".
Sidney Ball
16 weeks ago
I sure with that I could be a denier...
Then I could ignore science, observation and the real world and live in a cozy blanket of lies and oil industry propaganda. A shame I'd be too angry and stupid to enjoy it, though.
Feverish
16 weeks ago
mememine69
Making the world more livable & just for everyone's children is more important than anything, really. I see positive net benefit in becoming more self-sufficient, less polluting, less consumptive of finite resources.
A seeming desire to burn through what the earth provides, as quickly as possible, appears unjust for all inhabitants of the planet.
NickS
16 weeks ago
Sid, you are a "denier"
You deny that there are natural cycles in climate and try to pretend that a beneficial trace gas does it all by itself.
That is delusional.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/07/rise-of-the-natural-climate-cycle-deniers/
Hakuin
16 weeks ago
so woodworker
ever fed belt ammo for a machine gun? Because if our hardiness zone moves north you can bet the southern practical limit of agriculture will too. We're going to need you at the border, it's hard work cutting down millions of starving refugees. Or did you think they would share?
the crucible
16 weeks ago
@NickS
You are attacking the messenger instead of the the message again.
Try saying something about the science. Take individual points and refute them, or add additional science observations that are both relevant and counter the observations made here.
NickS
16 weeks ago
Come cruc, that's all I've been doing here
Unlike some, I back up what I say, whereas I've noticed your tendency to bloviate and like Hak, make stuff up as you go along.
You can't pretend any more that CO2 has enough effect on temperature to change weather. Just look at the evidence
IPCC's 'Gold Standard' Temperature Dataset Authenticates Global Cooling Over Last 15 Years
http://www.c3headlines.com/2013/01/ipccs-gold-standard-temperature-dataset-authenticates-global-cooling-over-last-15-years.html
Latest Empirical Evidence: The Abysmal Prediction Failure Of Taxpayer Funded CO2-Based Climate Models
Taxpayers have spent billions on CO2-driven climate model "science," which the empirical evidence now suggests was like pouring money down a rat-hole....the abysmal prediction failure of CO2-centric models is simply fact - are there actual scientific models that can replace this current wasteland of biased AGW climate research?"
http://www.c3headlines.com/2013/01/empirical-evidence-abysmal-prediction-failure-taxpayer-funded-co2-based-climate-models.html
The data proves that the climate hysteria is wrong....but don't let that stop you from calling people who point that out "deniers".
the crucible
16 weeks ago
@mememine69
Science doesn't care what laws you pass..
Read the preceding articles in the series. Pay special attention to the reproducible (by anyone) test results of CO2 heat retention. Think carefully about the feedback loop and the amplification of heat retention by additional H2O concentrations caused by a minor amount of CO2 retention.
Climate change is happening. Anybody still denying this is simply not paying attention.
The outstanding question not clear in climate models, is how much human activities are contributing to this change. It can't be zero, but it might be negligible or it might be major, or something between these extremes. The only way to find out, is more scientific measurements and larger lab testing.
But in the meantime, while waiting for the final results, it would certainly be prudent to reduce or mitigate the effects of human activity, as much as possible. Because of the feedback loops and long term results, waiting until it is happening would be much too late.
Think of it this way, you have just been diagnosed with an unknown disease. It seems to be correlated with your consumption of coffee, but the amount of correlation is unknown. More testing is needed, and more analysis. We already know there is no quick cure. Do you continue to drink your coffee until the test results are complete?
Hakuin
16 weeks ago
your posts are like the articles Cruc,
very lucid and logical exposition. They help educate and encourage proper process of thought in those that actually read them, a public service indeed.
That IS why you are making them I trust, you seem above the crude baiting I entertain myself with.
Okanagan Orchardist
16 weeks ago
Here's a quotation that I may have added someplace else..
From a speech by Dr. Guy McPherson:
"The ubiquity of apocalypse in recent decades has led to a banalization of the concept -- it is seen as normal, expected, in a sense [as] comfortable."
"...increased awareness of environmental crisis will not likely translate into a more ecological lifestyle."
So, once again, I would request the names and addresses of all of those people on this site who continue to deny climate variation, so that my children or grandchildren, if there are any left, can piss on your graves. In exchange, I will give you my address so that if I am wrong, you or your offspring can reciprocate.
Hakuin
16 weeks ago
:) I like how you think, OO
I too believe in justice. I've often said that all those who opposed stem cell research should have their names registered and be denied any treatments developed from it.
NickS
16 weeks ago
When in doubt, psychologize!
The last act of a desperate meme pusher is to explain the truth teller as having some kind of psychological fault.
First, OO. my position is that climate change is entirely natural and climate changes have always happened and always will.
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/146138/100-reasons-why-climate-change-is-natural
So you set up a straw man, "those people on this site who continue to deny climate variation",
and I knocked it down, so excuse me while I take a leak!
Story
16 weeks ago
Hakuin, you are a fool
http://theintelhub.com/2013/01/28/a-14-trillion-extortion-for-a-global-warming-scam/
the crucible
16 weeks ago
@NickS
Do you know what the differences are between reproducible laboratory tests, and measurement data sets? The first is science fact, the second is statistics. Both are valid tools in the scientific process, but the first is fundamental and the second is interpretive. In large systems, the second is often used to lead to discoveries in the first.
You seem to be denying the validity of the lab tests, based on interpretation of measurement sets. Sorry, it doesn't work that way.
Climate change is happening. The arctic summer ice is shrinking, along with many other external indicators (data sets) supporting this.
So look for explanations. Fundamental science supplies some of the clues, but we need to extrapolate to a global scale. For that we need climatology.
Climate models can (and do) project these changes forward. They aren't perfect. But they are pretty good for a system with this many variables (feedback loops and dampers and chaos theory). One thing it that cannot do, is estimate the relative effects of recent human activities on the overall climate model. We have no real idea if it is a negligible or major contributor to the changes the data sets are showing.
So what do you do? Deny the validity of the fundamental science? When any competent physics student can prove it? Deny the measurements in the data sets? Or look for narrower data sets? Or alternate interpretations of the data sets?
I'm still not quite sure "what" you are denying. Are you denying the fundamental science? Or that the arctic summer ice is shrinking? Or that man's activities have at least some contribution to the changes? It might help if you were more specific. I promise to listen, if you stop attacking the messenger.
NickS
16 weeks ago
The Crucible, no the Bloviator-In-Chief, maybe!
Bugger denial!
I positively suggest that climate change is natural, but weather modification is REAL!
http://www.globalresearch.ca/weather-warfare-beware-the-us-military-s-experiments-with-climatic-warfare/7561
Hakuin
16 weeks ago
Ok nick
The Pentagon is using weather to make war on America's enemies.... like all those American states hit by hurricane, tornado, drought and forest fires.
There, everyone agrees with you. Now, why are you posting in an article about anthropogenic climate change? Did you get tossed out of the chemtrails forums for calling people names and endlessly reposting the same stuff?
Maybe you should take a breath and reconsider your social interaction techniques. I mean, have you ever once convinced anyone to come around to your way of thinking? That IS why you do this, right?
Hakuin
16 weeks ago
And you, Story,
Are a big poo-poo head! :)
NickS
16 weeks ago
Yeah, they make war on their own too
That's hardly surprising when one reviews the experiments done on the US population over the years, especially by the military.
How about this for instance
http://climate-connections.org/2012/09/24/breaking-news-secret-us-military-testing-of-radiological-materials-on-poor-and-minority-communities/
Just because it is "unthinkable" doesn't mean it hasn't been done or is being done.
snert
16 weeks ago
C'mon Tyee
Don't you think it's about time you quit preaching to your rabid choir and started putting out articles on how we should adapt for the future?
You could start by suggesting that all new buildings in Ditchmond have the first two floors able to withstand 100% submersion at high tide. That way when the water comes up they could change the name to Venice-of-the-Americas. Think of what that would do property values. I'm not too sure how they would handle the canal names though. Can you mix Italian and Mandarin?
Hakuin
16 weeks ago
People who suggest others do things
Should lead by example. As I understand it, the Tyee will consider any worthy content submitted. I am quite confident Mr. Beers is at his happiest when he takes home a large stack of manuscripts to fill his forlorn, empty weekends. Really, you'd be doing him a favour.
NickS
16 weeks ago
Great idea Snert
Too bad sea levels are not cooperating.
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/01/28/sea-level-falling-outside-suzukis-window/
freewilly
16 weeks ago
Im a beleiver
Ive been looking at rain data in our village on the westcoast of Vancouver Island over a period of 10 years. I really cant see any pattern that would suggest rainfall has increased, but thats a pretty small time frame. What I beleive has changed, are the times we would normally expect heavy rainfalls.
The dry periods (which are few) may have shifted slightly.
Last year was of concern as summer extended itself into the period when salmon would migrate into the local rivers.
The tree frogs that normally show up on mass in the spring didn't show (well not many) last year
Climate change? CO2? Cant say. the science sounds good in theory, the math is great but its still too far away from freaking mayhem yet.
Until we have an event like the dustbowl in the 30s when climate change had a direct relationship to what humans were doing to the earth (farming practices destroying native species of grass, defoliation etc , even the most enlightened and educated wont get it. Just too abstract. Sorry scientists and enviro folk, your marketing campaign sucks. And Im a beleiver!
Hakuin
16 weeks ago
No they're not
http://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise-intermediate.htm
Hakuin
16 weeks ago
It's not a scientist's marketing campaign
It's a planetary intelligence test. So far we are failing.
Sask Resident
16 weeks ago
The article is incorrect
Sunlight then water vapour are still the primary forcing influences on the climate with CO2 far down the list. Many models hint that land use changes (reflectance changes) are a greater influence than CO2 on the regional and wold climate.
Hakuin
16 weeks ago
citation,
sask?
mememine69
16 weeks ago
Reefer Madness
Now we have the arm chair amateur wanna-be climatologists in the debate.
Hakuin
16 weeks ago
here's mine sask;
http://www.skepticalscience.com/CO2-is-not-the-only-driver-of-climate.htm
Kulshan
16 weeks ago
More data refutes 'Climate Change' canard
'Global warming less extreme than feared?'
[Policymakers are attempting to contain global warming at less than 2°C. New estimates from a Norwegian project on climate calculations indicate this target may be more attainable than many experts have feared.]
http://tinyurl.com/adboboe
NickS
16 weeks ago
Pathetic reference
"Even the name of the “Skeptical” “Science” blog is a lie. The blog is neither skeptical nor scientific. It is a malicious, paid propaganda platform for rude, infantile, untruthful, and often libelous attacks on anyone who dares to question whether global warming is a global crisis.
"That poisonous blog has recently attacked 129 climate researchers, of whom I am one, for having dared to write an open letter to the U.N. Secretary-General asking him not to attribute tropical storm Sandy to global warming that has not occurred for 16 years.
"The following are among the blog’s numerous falsehoods and libels:"
see the 12 falsehoods and libels here
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/04/skeptical-science-gets-it-all-wrong-yet-again/
The article ends with:
"One day, the useless “Skeptical” “Science” blog may perhaps have a curiosity value to historians studying the relentless, lavishly-funded deviousness and malice of the tiny clique who briefly fooled the world by presenting themselves as a near-unanimous “consensus” (as if consensus had anything to do with science) and mercilessly bullied anyone with the courage and independence of mind to question their barmy but transiently fashionable beliefs. The blog’s falsehoods have made no serious contribution to the scientific debate that we who are genuinely skeptical and truly scientific have by our patient endurance now largely won."
Hakuin
16 weeks ago
kul, read you rown article
Climate issues must be dealt with
Terje Berntsen emphasises that his project’s findings must not be construed as an excuse for complacency in addressing human-induced global warming. The results do indicate, however, that it may be more within our reach to achieve global climate targets than previously thought.
Regardless, the fight cannot be won without implementing substantial climate measures within the next few years.
Hakuin
16 weeks ago
:) oh nick
more flies with honey!
Hakuin
16 weeks ago
aheh hehe heh!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Monckton,_3rd_Viscount_Monckton_of_Brenchley
Hakuin
16 weeks ago
you couldn't write this stuff!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lm-tKEpJs7I
great source nicky! Think he could cure me?
OwlRol
16 weeks ago
Crucible Snert & HAARP
Kinda fun to read the comments here and previous, then again...
Crucible, I think your analysis is better than most. no point in trying to debate Nick S. though, bin down that road before. Won't change.
As to Nick's reference to Prof. Michel Chosudofski (an economist, not a climate scientist), and his HAARP article, it's essentially a red herring.
Yes, it exists in Alaska and it has military applications in terms of detection and disruption of electronic signals, (far less significant than solar flare effects, but important in space warfare). Weather manipulation is an important but remote physics and political possibility, but climate change, hardly. Nukes would get launched.
So why did the CIA & the US DofD release it to Raytheon Corporation? These are the same guys that promoted Reagan's Star Wars program.
Very little real detail in the article. The molecularly very thin ionosphere is a long way up from the troposphere and lower stratosphere where weather and climate events occur, and these separated by the mesosphere.
I noticed the LIDAR item on the map. Very cool technology, even personal portability. Had the privilege to see it used during the 2010 winter Olympics, the one that had to have snow trucked up to Cypress Bowl in February for the events to take place :-)
As I said, HAARP is a red herring, at least until the "AF 2025 Final Report". For now about as scary as Hydro's smart meters.
Good point, Snert, but patience, I'm sure that adaptation and remediation will be the topics of the last couple of pieces.
We are very lucky here, as evidenced last summer (and to a lesser extent previously) across the continent. In the meantime, if I could afford it, I wouldn't buy, long term, in Richmond, Penticton, Red Deer, etc. Water, water.
New agricultural regions further north, hardly. Such can only produce along river valleys. (dams, fracking, etc.?)
The Boreal forest has leached, acidic, nutrient poor Podzols, nothing like the prairie rich, dark Chernozems that take thousands of years to develop, but only a couple of days to blow away, as during the Dust Bowl. As to permafrost...
Better to preserve what we've got than risk our future on a roll of the global casino dice.
NickS
16 weeks ago
Monckton was an invalid and now he isn't
So what ever he used obviously worked.
He has devoted an enormous amount of time and effort, at the age of over 60, to what for many people requires years of study when they are less than half Monckton’s age. Sorry, but Monckton does not a villain make. He is a professional journalist who gets up the noses of the Climateers.
Now let's contemplate a real villain who admitted changing the 1995 IPCC Report when interviewed by Jesse Ventura. The story is commented on by heroic Chris Monckton, which ought to get up your nose,Hak.
http://www.infowars.com/exclusive-lead-author-admits-deleting-inconvenient-opinions-from-ipcc-report/
Hakuin
16 weeks ago
and there is the nub of it
"Monckton was an invalid and now he isn't
So what ever he used obviously worked."
work on that nick, work on that :)
NickS
16 weeks ago
Straining at gnats and passing camels
You manage to ignore the real tipping point in Climate Science. It went off the rails when Santer changed the report all on his own and claimed a "human fingerprint" on climate was found, when in fact the 5 committees whose statements he deleted had said there was no human connection.
The Climateers been passing camels ever since.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/22/madrid-1995-was-this-the-tipping-point-in-the-corruption-of-climate-science/
the crucible
16 weeks ago
@Sask
An astute comment. Atmospheric H2O is indeed the major active forcing agent. But as discussed in the first 2 articles, H2O content is localized, and highly variable. In contrast, CO2 sticks around, and nudges the temperature up slightly, which in turn allows higher H2O concentrations, which nudge it higher, which allows more H2O, and so forth. It only takes a localized temp drop to reduce that H2O content back down into it's "lower" levels. CO2 is unaffected by that same temp drop. The presence of CO2 moves the "lower" H2O level up a notch, which starts the H2O feedback loop off at a higher, and faster, level.
It's not the CO2 that directly causes the predicted warming (although it does), it's the effect that the CO2 has on the lower end of the H2O content cycles.
Your comment about sunlight and land use/condition is also interesting. It too has an effect on our climate. It's also part of the climate models. It's one of the many factors that makes it so difficult to estimate or predict the exact effect things like human contributed CO2 have on the overall picture.
One interesting thing about these climate models, is that they allow us to set the "data" to a point in the past, and run the "predictions" forward to the present. Match them up with real results to see how the model does. 10 years ago they weren't very good, but they are getting much better.
Another thing they allow us to do is "tune" for various variables, like volcanoes, strong/weak ninos, land use scenarios, various chemicals, etc. For the most part these are "what if" scenarios, but when you have a relatively good model you can do the same kind of "time set" backwards and run forward with different combinations. See what "would have happened without". One of the things that jumps out of these runs, is the effects higher CO2 has/had on the long terms results.
What isn't known, in fact it has scientific term called "uncertainty" (which has a more precise and slight different meaning when used this way) is the effects human produced CO2 has in the overall picture.
wiley
16 weeks ago
"...it's far, far worse"
http://tinyurl.com/b75gyle