VANCOUVER - No sooner had Canada dodged a summer election than the political rumor mill began churning out predictions of a September showdown leading to a federal election in November. But Hamish Marshall, who until recently served as a top pollster to Prime Minister Stephen Harper, offered a more sanguine election prediction.
“I think Ignatieff is fairly risk-adverse, watching what has happened in the last few days,” said Marshall, who now directs research for Vancouver polling firm Angus Reid Strategies.
“I would not expect him to force an election until the Liberals are ahead by five or six points on average, for about three months,” he said.
Recent polls have shown Ignatieff’s Liberals tied with – or two points ahead of – Harper’s Tories, but only for about a month.
Marshall attributed the Grits’ recent rise in fortunes primarily to discontent with the struggling economy: “There is dissatisfaction with the economy in Ontario, which is driving the Conservative numbers down.”
The former PMO insider’s comments came as part of a Thursday morning briefing by Angus Reid Strategies, which surveys a panel of 7,000 Canadians every three months on attitudes toward provincial and federal governments.
The June briefing presented analysis of the BC Liberals victory in the May provincial election, and offered a look at Canadian and U.S. attitudes toward the 2010 Winter Games. (Canadians as a whole were more enthusiastic about the Olympics than British Columbians, while only 30 per cent of Americans could identify B.C. on a map.)
Marshall emphasized that his observation was not a prediction.
“Anything could happen,” he said. “Ottawa gets into its own bubble, right?”
Monte Paulsen reports for The Tyee.
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Rod Smelser
2 years ago
I beat him to it
“I would not expect him to force an election until the Liberals are ahead by five or six points on average, for about three months,”
That's the same criteria I used in the last Parliament, and it worked. Until Harper called it himself, presumably because the Bank of Canada and the Finance Dept had given him some advance warning of last Fall's meltdown.
Ignatieff will never get to the specified point. Each time he takes the situation to the brink, then reaches a negotiated settlement to avoid an immediate election, he'll be cementing an image of himself in the minds of BC and Ontario "play the winner" swing voters, an image of weakness, of all talk, no action. These swing voters, brought up on a diet of TV infotainment, are totally unrealistic in their expectations.
They actually expect some Leadership Strong Man to simply push aside the pillars with a great roar and take over in a landslide, cheered on by crowds of thousands. When anything less than that materializes they are disappointed, it's a major downer for them.
Look for pollsters and pundits by Xmas to be saying that data shows these voters have come to view Michael Ignatieff the same way they did Stephane Dion, as a wimp, a nerd, a loser.
Luke Skywalker
2 years ago
Budd Campbell...
The same guy who also opined that the federal NDP was gonna capture 37% of the BC vote, which was off the chart by any empirical measure. ;)
Le Devoir is also reporting today that the federal Libs have sent out notices to party members alerting them to be prepared for an election commencing the week of October 5th.
http://www.ledevoir.com/2009/06/18/255597.html
Well... at least Jack Layton will get his never-ending wish for perpetual elections. This time 'round it kinda looks like he's gonna get crushed according to current political trends at 308.com:
G West
2 years ago
Oh well, doesn't really matter
Ignatieff and Harper are birds of a feather anyway - doesn't matter a damn who holds the reins of power .
THe Liberals had a chance to bring down the Harperites and Ignatieff backed down.
We could have a decent coalition government in this country now - instead we just lurch from crisis to crisis with the same idiots in charge.
Instead of a govenment backed by the majority of Canadians we have one that governs in the interests of Bay Street and Howe Street.
Nothing new about that.
The working people who generate the actual wealth of the country are still being screwed.
Same old same old....
Dan the socialist
2 years ago
Wow just watched Iggy on
Wow just watched Iggy on TV... wow what a ding bat..I am sure he is going to drop in the polls now. He got nothing. He is terrible. He also looks like a total shyster.
I had high hopes he would of been better than Dion but that is not the case. They sure are their own worst enemy.
How does this 3 1/2 month 'discussion' 'panel' do anything to help unemployment?
I noticed he had MP's around him but what is telling was the MP's that were not behind/beside him during his press conference..
I am just speechless..I sure in hell do not want this guy as PM..I could of lived with it before but not anymore.
Conservatives and Liberals seem to be the same 'party'...
Wow Iggy is a total joke in my opinion.
Yet did not Iggy claim:
** “I'm telling you straight and I'm telling you clear: I cannot continue to make Parliament work unless we get substantive EI reform before this Parliament rises in June.” **
Dan the socialist
2 years ago
NDP Gov next time?
I really am starting to believe Iggy may not be able to beat Harper now.
If Libs lose support to the NDP, con supporters who view Harper as being a 'socialist' and not 'being conservative enough' stay home, Quebecer's start viewing Iggy being just like Harper and the BQ sweeps Quebec or wins 68-70 seats and if the vote happens in the right areas with a combo of Lib and con people staying home, some liberal vote going to the NDP and just the right vote splitting, we could have an NDP government and if they only got a minority, the BQ are left wing too so I am sure they would support the NDP for a couple years at least.
I feel real good about the next election, I believe the NDP will surprise many with the increased support they will get at the ballot box. I think people are slowly realizing the cons and libs are the same even with Iggy, so in order to get change, the NDP will pull an upset.
Rod Smelser
2 years ago
Next best thing to the "official truth"
I mentioned the other day the adolescent fascination that paid propagandists have with the "official truth". The next best thing is a new, undocumented website controlled by party operatives which pretends to be for some other purpose.
In the last federal election we saw an example of this, the Voteforenviroment.ca site operated by Liberal Kevin Grandia, and of course there's Grandia and fellow Liberal Richard Littlemore's DeSmogBlog.com site.
And now there's 308.com. When I visited that site yesterday none of its links worked and there was no explanation of who was behind it.
Luke Skywalker
2 years ago
Rod Smelser...
That sorta lingo is usually utilized by the Marxist hard-left. But I digress. ;)
I dunno why ya always wanna be disingenuous. That's also the typical trait of a "party man".
The national print and television media often refer to the site for its non-political federal analysis.
http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/
Wilfred Laurier
2 years ago
Sure.....
"NDP Gov next time?"
Sure, man, that will happen as soon as the Tooth Fairy and the Easter Bunny join forces with Smilin' Jack as cabinet ministers.