Day four of the Copenhagen Summitt and 11,000 participants have already registered for COP15 at Bella Centre in Copenhagen. To register, participants have to have been previously approved by the UN. Next week, world leaders will make their appearance. There is room for 15,000 in the Bella Centre, yet this isn't the only place in Copenhagen where climate action is on the books. Tens of thousands of people concerned about climate change and global warming are converging in Copenhagen for discussions outside COP15. Some reports estimate 40,000 visitors to Copenhagen for activities related to the summit.
Today, Kumi Nadoo, TckTckTck campaign organizer and Executive Director of Greenpeace International, in a session sponsored by ICLEI -- an international organization of cities working for sustainability, predicted a turn out of 50,000 people two days from now in the COP15 host city. The message to be delivered from this and the 5,000 events scheduled around the world on Saturday December 12th is straightforward: "The World Wants a Real Deal."
In the conference centre, intensely focused TckTckTck organizers are mounting the campaign from their wireless laptops.
Youth are highly visible here. Today there were 1,000 young people in orange t-shirts with "Don't Bracket Our Future" blazoned across the front, supporting small island states and offering commentary.
A daily media highlight for the summit are the Fossil of the Day awards given by the Climate Action Network to "countries that do their best to block progress." The lead Fossil on day four is Poland, winning for blocking the EU's emissions reduction target upgrade to 30 per cent from 20 per cent. Canada made the list the first day (and twice since) and now is tied for the most Fossil points.
Also outside of the formal proceedings, the World Wide Views on Global Warming project today laid out policy recommendations "from the world's citizens to the climate policy makers." Co-ordinated by the Danish Board of Technology, the recommendations were generated in daylong meetings held September 26, 2009 by 4,000 citizens in 38 countries. Recommendations include a deal in Copenhagen rather than waiting untill later and a global temperature increase kept below two degrees Celsius. Also recommended are commitments from developed countries for 25 to 40 per cent reductions by 2020 and emissions targets for low-income developing countries. Citizens in the project felt there should be punishment for countries that do not meet their commitments.
In the meantime today's issue of the Earth Negotiations Bulletin reports that Tuvalu --the southwest Pacific Ocean country formerly known as Ellice Islands -- and the world's fourth smallest country with a total area of 10 square miles, caused buzzing in the corridors yesterday with a call for a new legally-binding document. The Bulletin reports that "Tuvalu’s call for a new legally binding instrument has roused significant civil society backing. When returning to the plenary in the afternoon, delegates had to pass through a vocal crowd shouting their support for the proposal." Tuvalu called for a suspension of the plenary, which was granted for informal discussions.
Charley Beresford, executive director of the Columbia Institute, arrived in Copenhagen December 9th, where she is observing the climate change discussions at COP15. Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have met annually since the establishment of the UNFCCC in Rio de Janero in 1992. The meetings are called a Conference of the Parties and the Copenhagen meeting is the 15th . From December 7th through 18th, the world is focused on COP 15 in Denmark, looking for a global deal on climate change following the KYOTO agreement, which runs out in 2012.
Possible outcomes from the Copenhagen summit:
-- a comprehensive deal with all loose ends tied up
-- a deal agreeing the "big picture", but with lots of details remaining to be thrashed out over the coming months or years
-- adjournment of the COP, probably until midway through 2010
-- breakdown
A number of developed countries and blocs have set targets for cutting their emissions, some of which depend on what other countries do. The EU, for example, will cut emissions by 20 per cent from 1990 levels -- but if there is a global deal, that will rise to 30 per cent. Some developing nations have also pledged to reduce the rate at which their emissions are growing. If implemented, are these curbs enough to keep the global average temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius - the target adopted by G8, the EU and a number of major developing countries?
Based on commitments made so far, probably not, according to the European Climate Foundation and others.
Analysts project that if no further action is taken on emissions, man-made warming will go beyond the relative safety of two degrees above pre-industrial levels. To hit that two degree target, global emissions in 2020 need to be capped at 44 gigatonnes -- 17 gigatonnes lower than they would be under a "business as usual" path. Pledges as of December 4 could reduce emissions by 49 to 54 gigatonnes a year. This leaves a potential gap of between five and 10 gigatonnes in 2020 (that's five to 10 billion tonnes). If emissions hit 44 gigatonnes in 2020, pegging climate change to two degrees Celsius is not certain. If emissions are higher, the chances of achieving this target are lower.
Charley Beresford, executive director of the Columbia Institute, arrived in Copenhagen December 9th, where she is observing the climate change discussions at COP15. Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have met annually since the establishment of the UNFCCC in Rio de Janero in 1992. The meetings are called a Conference of the Parties and the Copenhagen meeting is the 15th . From December 7th through 18th, the world is focused on COP 15 in Denmark, looking for a global deal on climate change following the KYOTO agreement, which runs out in 2012.
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Janie Jones
2 years ago
The Truth about Tuvalu
The Truth about Tuvalu:
http://nzclimatescience.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=14&Itemid=1
Chris de Freitas: Tuvalu floods, but it's not sinking
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/environment/news/article.cfm?c_id=39&objectid=10498927&pnum=1
For a look at how Tuvaluans treat their environment:
http://clemmiesconch.files.wordpress.com/2009/04/banners-kids-tuvalu2.jpg
max von smartt
2 years ago
editoral slant
I notice all the articles posted by the Tyee support the anthropogenic global warming theory which is trumpeted as beyond dispute and that skeptics are branded as climate deniars by the true believers no matter what the facts.
Indeed there is much scientific doubt that CO2 is the demon it is made out to be and that solar activity is the real driver of climatic variation, which currently is entering a cooling phase. Promoting energy efficiency, clean renewable sources (careful on the biofuels though), reduced consumption to begin with, and more equitable global development are themselves laudable goals.
The tricky business of carbon trading is likely another means for Wall Street and London to make a financial killing; witness billionare Soros in attendance.
Colleen K
2 years ago
Max
You are mistaken. There is broad scientific agreement that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are driving global warming.
The solar flare hypothesis is just that -- a hypothesis, and one that carries little weight in the scientific community.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11650
NASA (who's closer to the sun than NASA?) two years ago concluded that human-made greenhouse gas emissions were bringing the planet close to a tipping point.
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20070530/
My editorial slant is to report information from accurate and reliable sources.
Janie Jones
2 years ago
Editorial Slant
Your editorial slant reminds me of the time back in the old timber war days when the editor of the Squamish Chief wouldn't publish a letter I'd written to him as it was "slanderous" to the forest industry because the Canadian Parliamentary Library Information and Research Service was "not a credible source."
May I remind you of the Canadian Association of Journalists Statement of Principles regarding Diversity:
"Our stories will capture the rich and diverse values, viewpoints and lives of the people in our communities. We need to understand how our own beliefs and biases can interfere with our ability to see and report fairly and courageously."
Colleen K
2 years ago
Janie
A credible source in science is one that has been widely peer reviewed and replicated. This is what the solar flare argument lacks.
Janie Jones
2 years ago
Climategate
According the whistleblown emails, that is what the East Anglia CRU also lacks.
Colleen K
2 years ago
According to the emails you didn't read?
Once the hullabaloo died down and people had time to actually read, reflect and analyze, the tide of reporting shifted to show that -- while the emails may have shed light on the politicization of climate change -- they didn't compromise the body of research on it.
You might have a hard time finding them now. They are stolen property and therefore its illegal to post them. But you can check out these reports.
http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/dec2009/2009-12-05-01.asp
http://www.newsweek.com/id/225778
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/677-e2-wire/71715-dems-say-climate-change-deniers-like-teabaggers-swiftboaters-and-people-who-dont-believe-smoking-causes-cancer
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/Hacking-the-debate/551765
Colleen K
2 years ago
signing off...
...on this thread but I'll be writing more about this issue on The Tyee next week. Thanks for your comments.
Janie Jones
2 years ago
Damage Control
"You might have a hard time finding them now. They are stolen property and therefore its illegal to post them . . ."
Whistleblowers are actually protected by law and there is a good deal of speculation that Climategate is the work of one and not a hacker.
The work of a publicly funded body is not private property but open to the public through FOI requests that the East Anglia CRU actually destroyed data to avoid.
Looking forward to more of your biased reporting next week.
salty dog
2 years ago
@Colleen K
Besides being rude,your religion is just that "Your Religion"
You have made up your mind,so go have a discussion with yourself in the bathroom mirror,I`m sure you two will have a lot in common...
Peer reviewed..Marc Jaccard is a phony,Jaccard stumped for Gordon Campbell during the election,Jaccard warned the public against the NDP going after gas flaring, Jaccard was at THAT time against cap n trade and against going after gas flarers and big polluters..But Jaccard was told by Campbell what to say and do...and Berman...and Suzuki were all bought and paid for (peer reviewed) political stumpers!
But since you know everything Colleen...Perhaps you can explain to me why there was a mini ice age a few hundred years ago...And explain why the ice sheets covered half of north America and please explain why the for north was a warm balmy tropic environment in the not too distant past?
Oh yes indeed..Carbon(peer reviewed) offsets..Dumping fertilizer in the ocean to create carbon absorbing algea blooms......Paying chief Atleo to not cut down forests?.......Paying companies to NOT OPEN UP for BUSINESS?.....Carbon taxes(peer reviewed)....Carbon offsets(peer reviewed)....cap n trade(peer reviewed).....peer reviewed(group think)....Like the economic meltdown that was never going to happen/HST is good/no recession or deficits for canada or bc/housing will never go down in bc/....
So you know what you can do with your peer reviewed group think,and your mouthy bad attitude...No..I won`t be reading any dribble you write Colleen.
I`ll stick to the sunday comics!
Cheers
max von smartt
2 years ago
Global Research Climate Change
Dossier: Detailed Analysis and Review of Global Warming
Date: Friday, December 11, 2009 11:43 AM
http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va'>http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va'>http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va
some more meat to chew on from the sceptics camp.
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max von smartt
2 years ago
i dare you to look at this:
here is a slightly different version of link to a cornucopia of shocking alternative information with a scientific background
http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=newsHighlights&newsId=24
Janie Jones
2 years ago
Thanks von smartt
Just for you Colleen:
Emails originating from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia
Access to Email data bank
- by eastangliaemails.com - 2009-11-29
http://www.eastangliaemails.com/index.php
That was easy.
Janie Jones
2 years ago
Emails now in public domain.
Wow. I just randomly selected one of the emails and opened it. This is some of the stuff I found:
() The A1B scenario as generated with IMAGE also show a decline rather than the secondary emissions peak, but I can't say for sure which is most likely to be "realistic".
()
Also - relevant to your statement A1B-AR4 runs show potential for a distinct lack of warming in the early 21st C, which I'm sure skeptics would love to see replicated in the real world... (See the attached plot for illustration but please don't circulate this any further as these are results in progress, not yet shared with other ENSEMBLES partners let alone published).
()
Are there any new estimates yet? Pareticularly, will there be a revision in time for the 2010 forecast?
()
In any case, if the sulfate hypothesis is right, then your prediction of warming might end up being wrong. I think we have been too readily explaining the slow changes over past decade as a result of variability--that explanation is wearing thin. I would just suggest, as a backup to your prediction, that you also do some checking on the sulfate issue, just so you might have a quantified explanation in case the prediction is wrong. Otherwise, the Skeptics will be all over us--the world is really cooling, the models are no good, etc. And all this just as the US is about ready to get serious on the issue.
We all, and you all in particular, need to be prepared.
http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=947&filename=1231166089.txt
Progressive Pathos
2 years ago
a regular reader in support of the tyee's editorial position
thanks for the great links colleen. i thought the "climategate" believers stuck to the intellectual ghettos of fox news. I was also under the impression that after right wing bastions like the National Post admit the stolen emails hype amounted to a lot of hot air his issue would be put to rest. I commend your patience and grace in dealing with some rather rude fossils.