The first public poll of the May 12 election campaign suggests the B.C. Liberals have a 17-point lead on the New Democrats.
The poll, from the Mustel Group, has the Liberals with 52 per cent of decided voters and the NDP at 35 per cent. That’s virtually unchanged since the last Mustel poll in February.
The Green party had the support of 12 per cent of decided voters. One per cent named other parties.
On March 25, an Angus Reid Strategies poll gave the Liberals a six point lead, with 43 per cent of decided voters compared to 37 per cent for the NDP. Reid gave the Greens 13 per cent and the B.C. Conservatives four per cent.
An Ipsos poll that came out March 24 gave the Liberals an 11-point lead with 46 per cent to the New Democrats’ 35 per cent and the Green party’s 15 per cent.
Today’s Mustel poll suggests that both the Liberals and NDP enjoy firm support from their followers. Among Liberal supporters, 78 per cent described their support as either “very strong” (24 per cent) or “somewhat strong” (54 per cent).
Among NDP supporters, 82 per cent said their support was either “very strong” (21 per cent) or “somewhat strong” (61 per cent).
“B.C. Liberal voters primarily are drawn by the party’s economic policies and by their past performance,” the pollster said in a statement accompanying the results. “NDP supporters are attracted by the party’s social, health and education policies, and general support for the ‘working class.’ ”
One finding that will be sure to cheer up Liberal supporters relates to voters’ top issues. The Liberals were rated as the best party for handling the two top issues, crime and the economy. The economy was named by 39 per cent of respondents as the top issue; 12 per cent named crime.
Almost two-thirds – 63 per cent – of all respondents said the Liberals were the best party to handle the economy. Almost half – 49 per cent – said the Liberals were the best party to handle crime. Only 25 per cent named the NDP as the best party to handle crime.
As well, 53 per cent said the Liberals were the best party to handle government spending.
The NDP were rated the best party when it came to dealing with housing and homelessness (51 per cent), health (45 per cent) and education (45 per cent).
Neither of the big parties scored well on the environment. Despite their aggressive and controversial climate change strategy, the Liberals were the choice of only 16 per cent when respondents were asked which party would do the best job on the environment. The NDP were chosen by 21 per cent and the Green party was the overwhelming favourite at 57 per cent.
Only seven per cent of respondents rated the environment as their top issue.
Fewer than one per cent of respondents named “fuel cost” as the most important issue. Last summer, when the NDP was using a wave of high gas prices to push an anti-carbon tax campaign, fuel cost was the top issue.
Approval ratings for the two main party leaders showed little change since the last Mustel poll.
Today’s poll was conducted from April 1 to 7. It was based on interviews with 483 eligible B.C. voters. A sample of this size is said to have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Tom Barrett reports for The Tyee.
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pkelly
2 years ago
unbelievable
I simply do not believe the Mustel numbers. At 52%, they lead in every region in the province. But here on the island, if you identified yourself as a Liberal supporter, you'd risk being punched out...they are hated here.
There is something really off side with the way Mustel calculates their results.
KevinC
2 years ago
Let it go and consider the bigger picture
I really wish the NDP would just concede the Carbon Tax. The sooner they take that piece off the board, the better. Then they can concentrate on all of the nasty stuff that the Liberals have done that is currently being obscured by this nonsense debate. Why lose any more votes than you have to, especially when, if these figures are anything to go by, the CT is not a make-or-break issue for most voters?
Campbellwearsatutu
2 years ago
Mustel polls
Joan Mcyntire ---BC Liberal MLA --Mustel was her business,her partner owns it,but the connection is there.
Pkelly...Yea,Mustel is wonky,Angus Reid poll has the NDP with a 20 point lead on Vancouver island.
Unfortunately Mustel poll doesn`t breakdown the region,male,female,nothing,a blank cheque........
I have no doubt the phone dialers came up with that result.......
The question is......Who supplied the phone number list,where did the list come from?
What will be interesting is how will Mustel polling do in future business when their polls are found to be ass backwards after may 12th election......
Cheers
G West
2 years ago
Personally
I'm perfectly sanguine for Mustel to keep on posting their phony polls - there is simply no way that their results are accurate and, as happens every time I get called - which is surprisingly often - I always identify myself as a Campbell supporter.
Do you suppose that's why they keep calling my number?
I want the Liberals to be comfortable and complacent - they'll get the comeuppance they deserve on May 12 - in the meantime, let them think this is going to be a cakewalk.
Campbellwearsatutu
2 years ago
@KevinC
Kevin....Is the carbon/gas tax---Is it 600 million a year in goverment revenue ? Or is it 600 million a year in goverment tax breaks?
Please explain what the carbon tax means to you,are you driving less? Consuming less?
Have you traded in your SUV and bought a smart car?
Does the carbon/gas tax reduce emissions?
Could you explain why,since the carbon tax was implemented there are 90 thousand more cars on the road(ICBC numbers not mine)
The Carbon/gas tax,at the current price brings in 600 million dollars--well BC has 4 million people,that works out to .....
150.00$ per person,are you getting a 150.00$ tax cut back?
Marc Jaccard,the author of Campbell`s carbon tax states "for a carbon tax to be effective it has to be 10 to 20 times what our carbon tax is"
So even Marc Jaccard says our BC carbon tax is useless.
Would you be happy if the NDP listened to Marc Jaccard and raised the price of gas to 1.80$ per liter?
pkelly
2 years ago
polling
I tend to have a little more faith in Angus Reid. His firm polls about 10,000 people in web-based polling, then selects a random sample from that. He and a lesser known independent pollster, Glen Robbins, predicted that Bush would win in 2004 - and everyone laughed...when they were proved correct, no one was laughing anymore.
So, this Mustel pollster puts out a rogue poll that shows a 17 point lead...that's fine...I'll wait for a more scientifically accurate one comes out before I read anything significant out of it.
rac
2 years ago
Axe Axe the Tax
The NDP's focus on the Carbon Tax really brings their competence into question. Not only are they losing votes from people that care about the environment, as the poll shows, the Carbon Tax just isn't a big issue for people anymore. If this is the case, why make it the central point of the campaign. It just doesn't make any sense.
G West
2 years ago
rac
It's called strategy - everybody hates the Campbell tax because it's unfair; ineffective and costly to administer - it does absolutely nothing to help the environment, spins more money to Gordon Campbell's friends (check out Marc Lee if you don't believe me) than it does to the poor and working poor and ignores two of the biggest polluters entirely (Airlines and cruise ships).
Why would anyone, let alone someone who professes to care about the planet, defend it?
Frank
2 years ago
Carbon tax
If the NDP were to embrace the carbon tax's attack on the poor it would mean selling out every principle of theirs going back to the days of Tommy Douglas.
On the other hand, the enviros have sold out their principles and the environment itself for a bag of gold showing where their priorities lie.
kl
2 years ago
With a +-4.5 error margin
Why even post the results of a poll of 483 eligible voters with a +-4.5% error rate?
With such an error rate the results couls just as easily be:
Liberals: 47.5%
NDP 39.5%
Which brings us to only an 8 point lead which could easily be surmounted with an aggressive campaign by the NDP.
On the flip side the results could have been:
Liberal: 56.5%
NDP 30.5%
Which gives the Liberals a 26 point lead which is assinine. And no way possible.
In other words, this Mustel poll is a joke.
Where was it taken? A tradtional Liberal stronghold?
KevinC
2 years ago
you are kidding me
The NDP should make life and the election that much harder for themselves by taking a stand on the carbon tax of all things? It's called picking your battles. Or do you really think the NDP should be principled to the extent of losing the election?
BTW I am a former BC boy but live in Germany now. I do not have a car; I travel everywhere by bike and transit. People seem to like to raise this country as a positive example of small, fuel efficient vehicles and cost-effective transit. I think this state of affairs is certainly in part due to the high price of fuel here, of which various taxes currently comprise around 3/4 of the price at the pump. Everyone pays these taxes, of course, including the poor. Funny though, I haven't heard anyone complaining about it being an attack on the poor. Probably because the welfare system here is so much better than the downward slide that's been happening back home. Speaking of which ... how about making decent welfare the issue instead of the red herring carbon tax?
Grumpy
2 years ago
I see from the Liberal trolls................
...........that the Carbon/gas tax is a sore point.
In fact, the Carbon/gas tax is completely ineffective as even Liberal shill and promoter of the Carbon/gas tax Marc Jaccard has stated that to be effective it needed to be 20 times higher!
Well, well, well another phony tax adding to the taxpayer's burden and for the Mustell poll, it doesn't surprise me, like everything else in this province, it is nothing but BS.
Frank
2 years ago
KevinC
"The NDP should make life and the election that much harder for themselves by taking a stand on the carbon tax of all things?"
And if it was called the "keep the poor off our roads tax" the NDP should still support it I suppose?
"Or do you really think the NDP should be principled to the extent of losing the election?"
Yes. We live in a very right-wing province where the NDP lose almost all elections. Better to keep your dignity and laugh at all the idiots who are willing to throw the poor, the environment, welfare, health care etc under the bus at the first opportunity and who then then cry later over the state of the world.
"I haven't heard anyone complaining about it being an attack on the poor. Probably because the welfare system here is so much better than the downward slide that's been happening back home."
And here there is no great welfare system so the poor are worse off and more at the mercy of market forces.
"how about making decent welfare the issue instead of the red herring carbon tax?"
The media would rather that the issue was fought on the gas tax going from 17 cents a litre to 25 cents a litre.
Frank
2 years ago
By the way
The NDP abandoned their principles under Dosanhj, how did that work out for them? 2 seats I think it was. if they want a repeat of that they should follow your advice.
realisticman
2 years ago
Go for it Frank
Stand firm on your principles and promise that if elected you will return that 2.4¢ back to the people. The people should be able to buy an SUV if that's what they want! The NDP will make gas cheaper again.
Oh, by the way, will you want that $100 rebate back or can we keep it?
Frank
2 years ago
realisticman
"Oh, by the way, will you want that $100 rebate back or can we keep it?"
I never claimed it. I assume you did?
DPL
2 years ago
100 dollar rebate, once,
100 dollar rebate, once, does little toward paying for gas for any car. The gas tax under Campbell will continue to rise,as will oil to heat ones house, Public transit is not available in all parts of the province. The poll is bogus.
brg61
2 years ago
Mustel poll
This Mustel poll is almost identical to
their March poll. Both put the BCliberal
support at 52% and the ndp around 35%.
No other polls in Mar. gave the libs this
much of a lead. Why isn't a regional and
demographic assessment included?
Also, Mustel's poll is already old as it
was conducted between Apr.1st-7th.
I think most polls come close (at least
within their error margin), but Mustel
issues old data without proper explanation
of whom they polled and from where.
The sample size and error margin isn't
enough to give credibility to the rest
of this data.
It is typical that t.v. news anchors all
reported this poll as if it was conducted
days(not weeks) ago. This lazy reporting
will continue for 28 more days either by
design or ignorance.