A new B.C. election poll from the Mustel Group gives the Liberals a nine-percentage-point lead over the New Democratic Party.
The poll, which is based on a considerably larger sample than a mid-April Mustel poll that gave the Liberals a 17-point lead, suggests the Liberals have the support of 47 per cent of decided voters.
Another 38 per cent of decided respondents said they intend to vote for the NDP in Tuesday’s election.
The Green party was supported by 12 per cent of respondents and the B.C. Conservative party by three per cent.
Other polls during this campaign have indicated the two main parties have been as close as three points.
Today’s Mustel poll of 852 eligible B.C. voters was conducted between April 29 and May 6th, a period that includes Sunday’s leaders debate.
The poll also found a lack of support for the BC-STV electoral system. Some 43 per cent said they will vote for the existing First Past the Post system; 33 per cent said they intend to vote for BC-STV. Another 24 per cent were undecided.
Mustel also found British Columbians split on the carbon tax: 44 per cent said they support it and 41 per cent said they oppose it. A further 15 per cent were undecided.
When asked how firm their support was for their preferred party, 84 per cent of Liberal supporters and 81 per cent of NDP supporters said their support was very or somewhat firm.
Green supporters were less certain – only 70 per cent said they were very or somewhat firm. This fits a historical pattern of Green party supporters “parking” their votes with the Greens while they make up their minds.
The Green supporters were “more or less equally divided between the two leading parties” when asked about their second choices, while Liberal supporters were equally likely to name either the NDP or Greens as their second choice.
NDP supporters were more likely to name the Greens as their second choice.
More than two-thirds – 36 per cent – of Liberal supporters said they had no second choice, compared to 19 per cent for NDP supporters and 27 per cent for Green supporters.
Some 84 per cent of eligible voters said they intend to vote. Actual turnout, however, tends to be considerably lower than that – in the last provincial election, only 58 per cent of eligible voters cast ballots. This gap between voters’ intents and their actions makes getting out the vote crucial in most elections.
A poll of this type and size has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The mid-April Mustel poll had a sample size of 483 eligible voters, which is associated with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20. These figures are for all respondents – results for smaller groups, such as decided voters, will carry higher margins of error.
Tom Barrett reports for The Tyee.
26
Login or register to post comments
telus employee
3 years ago
Things must be bad...
If the BC Liberal polling Machine Mustel is only predicting 9 point lead.
Frank
3 years ago
Wow!
So in Mustel-land the NDP went from 17 points back to just 9 in a month?
I like that trend!
ROBBINS Sce Research
3 years ago
Have a real good look at the
Have a real good look at the BC Green of 12%
secret cove
3 years ago
An interesting note.........
With very limited details on this Mustel poll.........
The big item in this poll.....
A quote from Mustel......
"The BC Conservative party is polling at 7% in Kamloops and the southern interior"
Cheers-Eyes Wide Open
offended
3 years ago
Another poll tonite
With a spread of a lot less than 9% (Harris Decima Canadian Press I believe)
secret cove
3 years ago
CTV NEWS......
The 6.00 pm news(Bill Good hour)there will be a .......
Angus Reid poll released--Rumour has it...
A 3 point lead for Carole James.
Wilfred Laurier
3 years ago
Give us some facts, Quarry
"Angus Reid poll released--Rumour has it..."
Give me some facts, Quarry. Gordon Campbell is on his way to a comfortable majority, more that the 13 seats he had before.
The outcome was never in doubt regardless of leftie squealing and character assassination.
secret cove
3 years ago
Figure it out......
Yourself Wilfred.........
Mustel states that the BC Conservative party is polling at 7% in Kamloops and the southern interior.......
That is a huge number,big trouble for Campbell........
Read the details yourself Wilf,according to Mustel polling,the only place Campbell is leading is in the outskirt suburbs....
The only one squealing is you Wilfred,now I wait patiently for Kennedy Stewart to change his prediction (Again)
Wilfred Laurier
3 years ago
We'll see, Quarry
Quarry, if I have listened to NDPers prognosticate victory at every election and they have been soundly beaten in all but three and only then when the Free Enterprise vote was split. I am confident in a comfortable majority for Premier Campbell Tuesday night. I will leave you with the same wager Garth would not take:
NDP win: I will never post again.
Liberal win: You never post again.
Since you think it is a 100% certainty that Ken and Carole will form the next government in a landslide, this should be an easy wager for you.
Wilfred Laurier
3 years ago
And I may add
The Mustel poll was bang on in 2005 and is almost identical to the Environics poll.
The NDP is toast. Liberal support is very firm and has been for several years, at 47-48%.
http://bc2009.com/polls/
realisticman
3 years ago
?
Are these guys reliable?
http://www.trendlines.ca/electbc.htm
offended
3 years ago
Liberal support?
Liberal support has been up and down the last two years. That's according to the link from Wilfred Laurie gave us. Oops.
offended
3 years ago
Liberal support?
Liberal support has been up and down the last two years. That's according to the link Wilfred Laurier gave us. Oops.
Van Isle
3 years ago
The surprising things about
The surprising things about these polls is that they tell stats about the decided voters. Well, what about the undecided voters and the voters who normally don't vote? There were a million voters who didn't show up in the '05 election so these numbers are hay-wire. My wife and I have had a few telephone polls done by the Liberals and NDP, asking us for our support. We just give the answer that the pollster wants to hear. They never bug you again.
Krispy
3 years ago
I'll see your poll...
Interesting CP story today that was picked up by the Globe and a few other publications -- a new poll by Harris/Decima Research that showed a high mistrust level of Gordon Campbell.
The interesting part is the paragraph that is buried half way down the story:
"Like another recent poll, the Harris-Decima poll also concluded that the Liberals and the NDP are in a neck and neck race, but there is a huge swath - some 28 per cent - of respondents who said they were still undecided with only six days to go before voting day."
Neck and neck. Doesn't sound like a 9 point lead for the Libs. But my question is, why would CP not report the actual numbers on voter preference? Is this not the key piece of information that their readers would want to know?
This may be a CP story, but the reporters likely work for CanWest -- in qhich case, their editors likely excised this information before filing the story with CP.
The corporate media are trying desperately to downplay the NDP's chances of winning the election, as a way to drive down the vote and turnout for the party.
Meanwhile, Mustel has deep ties to the BC Libs, so I think it likely that their polling data could be affected by a 'tweaked' methodology. Wouldn't be the first time.
frenchy mcswede
3 years ago
I now predict an NDP victory,
having just watched the Angus Reid Poll on ctv. This new poll, conducted online, rather than with problematic telephone landlines is also more accurate, because rather than focusing on party leaders,it focused on each riding with individual polls done in each riding, and asked,"based on the candidates in your riding, who would you vote for?"
The results show 44% for the liberals 42% for the ndp, and 10% support for the greens. BUT wait, it's even better for the ndp than it sounds because james' personal approval rating now matches campbell's at 36% each. MOREOVER THIS A 9% INCREASE FOR JAMES AND A 0% INCREASE FOR CAMPBELL. THEREFORE, JAMES HAS THE FORWARD MOMENTUM, CAMPBELL HAS NEGATIVE MOMENTUM.
The only important thing now is for ndp supporters not to grow complacent, keep fighting all out, let's get as big a majority as possible...By the by, I just went down to my advance voting station and voted. You do NOT need an excuse such as being out of town, sick, disabled or anything else...that's the law in bc, the addresses where the advance polling can be done is written on the yellow card confirmed voting list voters get from canada post, advance voting is at a high, which also favors the ndp...
WHAT
3 years ago
Thanks offended Thanks
Thanks offended
Thanks secret cove
Not bad predictions at all, just had the pleasure of viewing CTV BC...
Luke Skywalker
3 years ago
Ya Can Bank on These Numbers....
In 2005, Mustel was spot on with their roughly 4% spread in favour of the Libs (actual election outcome was also roughly 4%).
In 2009, that Lib spread has increased by another 5% to 9%.
Right now we are still looking at a 55-60 seat Lib majority to 25-30 seats for the NDP.
In FPTP, the wider the spread, the more magnified the seat count for the victor.
Don't believe me? Let's post next Wednesday morning.
driftwolf
3 years ago
I can only hope that those
I can only hope that those who don't want to see ANOTHER Liberal majority get off their lazy asses and go vote.
Me, I'm routing for a minority government. Then the parties involved actually have to start thinking about the voters rather than just ramming things through at the whim of the elected parliamentary dictator.
Frank
3 years ago
2005???
In 2008 Angus Reid was the pollster that got the closest to the actual results.
Frank
3 years ago
Mustel
In 2005, they understated NDP strength by 1.5% and overstated Green strength by 3%.
In their last poll they had the Liberals ahead by 17%, now they've decided they were wrong and changed it to 9%.
Luke Skywalker
3 years ago
Frank...
I know that you are angling for a political strategist career... but a lesson in politics 101 might be in order: :D
Angus Reid Strategies:
Saskatchewan (Federal Election)
Con: 40%
NDP: 35%
http://www.newstalk650.com/files/news-talk-angus-reid-federal-election-poll-oct-10.pdf
Damn that's close with a 5% spread!
Actual Federal Election Result:
Con: 54%
NDP: 26%
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/map/2008/#
Oooppppsss... a 28% spread!
I understand how these online panels work and man they can really be outta whack. ;)
Frank
3 years ago
Luke
I know that you are angling for a career at a call centre where you can repeat the same thing over and over again and get paid for it but let's get serious.
You posted your anti-ARS stuff during the federal election. yes, we know, they can be wrong too. But then some of us never set our watches by pollsters anyway.
You on the other hand... well, let's just say, live by the poll, die by the poll...
Luke Skywalker
3 years ago
Frank...
Speaking of polls ... ummmm.... Ya know what?
Methinks I'm gonna haul out my fishin' pole for the long weekend. :D
Dan the socialist
3 years ago
If the NDP would of listened
If the NDP would of listened to me last fall and asked Ms. James to step down and have a leadership convention, the NDP could of won this election easily.
Think about all the shenanigans (so many to list, but we all know what they are) with Campbell and the Libs and then explain to me why the NDP is noy up by 12-15% in the polling?
There is only one reason for that and some of us NDP supporters have figured it out but many have not....
Frank
3 years ago
Dan
"and then explain to me why the NDP is noy up by 12-15% in the polling?"
Because we live in a very right-wing province where kicking the disadvantaged is considered a sport.
The NDP has brought up the Campbell record repeatedly and apparently that's called "being negative".
By all means keep hoping for Gregor Robertson to ride to the rescue next time but it'll be a cold day in hell before I vote for that guy.