The Hook

Hopefully a couple other

Hopefully a couple other polls verify this, until then I really believe this is a rogue poll.

There is the real poll.......

So much for the bogus Mustel and Ipsos polls....

And wait until the public hears about 1500 acres of land and 300 million dollars the Squamish and Lilloette indian bands got for supporting the Olympic bids.

Yet not one dollar for the Cambie merchants who had their store fronts torn up for over 3 years.......

This election is over

NDP 49 seats

Liberals 35 seats

Independent 1 seat

@ Dan

What do you care,you have been slagging the Carole James for a year now,the band wagon is full,the only rogue poll is Mustel and Canwest`s Ipsos poll.

Here is another accurate poll

Like I said,Mustel and Ipsos are gonna have some explaining to do on may 13th

http://www.robbinssceresearch.com/polls/poll_582.html

secret cove....

Damn you are good. :)

I sure hope that Robbins SCE Research has patented that "secret formula" with the U.S. patent office.

Must be worth $millions$. ;)

And when the truth comes out about Van Dongen...

............the Libs may drop another 5 points in the polls.

@Luke

Hey listen up Luke,Campbell has been running a polling ponzi scheme,Mustel polls are bird cage material,Ipsos,one should check their so-called CALL LIST

The Green vote will decrease,it always does and those votes will go to the NDP.

Just wait until the backlash erupts over the 1500 acres and 300 million 2 first nations bands for supporting the games.

Angus Reid was the most accurate of all pollers in the last federal election.

Campbell was greeted by a empty street today in Kimberly.

BC Rail hearings start next week,minimum wage,hydro increases,Run of River sell out to Plutonic,Patrick Kinsella and this polling was done before the collasps of....

John Van Dongen,Marc Dalton,Laura Mcdiarmid,the drunk driver on the island and.........
Drum roll please........

Bill Bennett getting his back-side slapped by elections BC for offering up free beer and a lesson on how to vote in east Kooteney.

Double or nothing?

Could it be methodology....

Given that A. Reid is an on-line poll?

Is this a case where there is a skewing away from old fogies who answer their land lines?

.

@Ross

Angus reid is the most accurate of all pollers in the last federal election....

And what makes you think seniors are Campbell voters?

Seniors are concerned with care beds,hospitals,hydro rates and they want higher wages(minimum wage) for their grandchildren and they DON`T LIKE THE CARBON TAX on the home heating or GAS or PROPANE for their 5th wheel!

RossK...

LOL

Just like ARS was bang-on with their similar 800 sample size poll in Saskatchewan in 2008, JUST before the election:

Con: 40%
NDP: 35%

Damn, that's a close 5% spread.

http://www.newstalk650.com/files/news-talk-angus-reid-federal-election-poll-oct-10.pdf

BUT.... on election night... OOOOOOPPSSS:

Con: 54%
NDP: 26%

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/map/2008/#

The actual election result was a 28% spread. Oooooopppsss again.

That change in spreads is the differential between a close election and a landslide.

And then the ARS poll in Alberta's election:

PC: 43%
Lib: 28%

A 15% spread.

http://www.legermarketing.com/documents/POL/080304ENG.pdf

BUT the actual Alberta election results:

PC: 53%
Lib: 26%

A 27% spread. And ARS came in last positon out of 4 pollsters in terms of accuracy.

Caveat Emptor! :D

And for the reasonable folk out there...

If the current spread was really 3% as ARS states, the Libs would be placing negative attack ads against the NDP.

But no... they still have their Gordo "fluff" ads. Why?

Both the Lib and NDP internal tracking polls are more in line with both Mustel and Ipsos and they know what's really going on.

secret cove

I agree re: the potential accuracy of their methodology.

Now, I was being kinda snarky about the fogies, but....the argument about age bias has been made before.

All joking aside, have you seen the gender breakdown in the poll (female NDP; male LINO)...given that it would be very interesting to see the age breakdown.

Please don't yell at me - I'm not trolling here...My true intent was to point out that the methodological differences between pollsters might explain the so-called 'volatility' of the electorate.

.

@Ross

No problem,seniors are at hospitals every other day,it`s a major concern......

The "methadology" or lack thereof.

Remember about mustel---Joan Mcyntire

Remember about Ipsos--

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2838

I have about as much faith in those companies as I do with Greg Lyle and the "Innovative group"

Campbell and the Liberals were running a polling ponzi scheme in a attempt to de-moralize NDP voters......

Sort of like making the NDPers doubt their own beliefs,trying to get people to think it must be me,everyone is voting Liberals!

I sent the poll off to CKNW Newsroom, If it was a Mustel poll or Ipsos poll it would be "Breaking news" -As it stands I don`t expect CKNW to report it.

@Lord Jim

"the band wagon is full"

LOL, that's my vote for the comment of the year.

@Luke

Lord Jim is right, Angus Reid was the most accurate pollster federally as I know you recall because we discussed it post-election.

As for their provincial screw-ups, hey, he doesn't make up the numbers, he just reports them :-)

Online Panel Polls

ARS conducts all of its polling through "on-line" panels. The panel selects the pollster, not the other way around.

BTW, Ipsos is also involved in "online panels". But they understand that that process can be flawed in terms of the "party preference question".

In fact, Ipsos released a first time BC "on-line poll" on Friday.

But again, they refused to ask the "party preference question" in that "online poll" ... even though Gordo led Carole by a 44% to 30% margin as to "Who Would Make the Best Premier of BC".

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=4358

And unlike ARS, Ipsos makes the following proper disclaimer:

For those that don't know, telephone opinion surveys include the following mix:

1. Landlines;
2. Cell phones;
3. VoIP phones;

@Luke

Campbell has his deciples running attack ads--Phil hocstein ran their attack ad on CKNW about 300 times today.....

Plutonic power are running ads denouncing the NDP.

And Campbell has been running attack ads,the little office talk ads,like the one where he lies -Saying "it took 7 years to get rid of the NDP operating debt"

And Campbell has Bill(no)Good-Palmer-Baldrey-Michael campbell-Michael Levy-Christie Clark-The Sun-Province-Victoria times-Global-Voice of BC--Marc Jaccard-David Suzuki-Jane Sterk-Tzeporah Berman-All pimping for Campbell!

And you say there are no attack ads! Well? Or do attack hacks don`t count.......

Fast ferries,Convention center lovefest,and now your complaining about a handful of ads from Cope/BCTF.......

Typical whinny BC Liberals,wasn`t the 10 million in corpotate donations enough? Campbell can`t afford ads.....

I look forward to Campbell attack ads,bring em on!

Liberals only cheat....

When they can`t win

http://www.publiceyeonline.com/archives/003848.html

And don't forget.............

............ Did Dongen cause an acciden? FROM THE COURTS: "10-Jan-2008 MVA - 127(1)(a)(iii) Failing to yield to vehicle on green light". Dongen's next appearance in court is listed as "Richmond Provincial Court 30-Jun-2009 09:30 AM". If you want to see this for yourself, the website for Court Services Online is located at
https://eservice.ag.gov.bc.ca/cso/esearch/criminal/partySearch.do

You can just enter his name to find the records, or use the file number from the site - 28738815 (the court location which is Richmond).

http://www.robbinssceresearch

http://www.robbinssceresearch.com/polls/poll_582.html

originally published April 24, 2009

ROBBINS Rodeo Round-up

Angus Reid/ROBBINS Sce Research (1998)

like Gordie Howe and Bobby Orr///-
Wayne Gretzky and Sidney Crosby

-Duke--how'd you know about the money?

numbers are virtually identical--overall

Who will be correct---Reid ROBBINS (close race) or Ipsos Mustel (huge win BCL)?

ROBBINS Sce Research...

Dude... will ya let us all in on this golden nugget:

Man, that's gonna be a world-wide game changer in terms of statistics and probability!

Statisticians world-wide are now probably worshipping at your feet, n'est pas? :D

Duke Flywalker

You should do your homework Duke--check out some of the rationales from the some of the best stats folks in the U.S. relating to the last U.S. election. ROBBINS Sce Research finds Barack Obama in front in January 08---everyone else--top pollster and Universities--have Clinton up by 12-20%. One week later--everyone follows ROBBINS Rogue poll.

Vision Vancouver nomination by basis points--basis points for a nomination.

Top economists-from every Canadian bank say it isn't the science its the art.

The statistics of a poll is one standard formula based on sample size. It isn't complicated. Anyone who has never conducted a poll--and any pollster would know this--really doesn't have a clue how this stuff actually works.

Alot of the standards have been designed historically to ensure the means of production of this type of business is kept in a few hands.

The reason ROBBINS has been so accurate--is all about balance of probability and averaging.

Statisticians worldwide are probably trying to figure out what's gone so wrong for themselves. They likely don't want to think about this.

With the world broke--governments generally recognized as inept---and no-one to ascribe credibility--we are left to the proof being in the pudding--and for ROBBINS--the proof is there--every poll is published through conventional methods CP AP--worldwide.

You also have to be good to be lucky as they say--.

If you spend enough time with the numbers---think about the information available--plus polling--if you ask the right questions create baselines within baselines---create new percentages from new information--you end up pursuing manufactured algorithms and averages from all types of internal calculations.

That is the art of the polling---and frankly I am mostly surprised that someone who actually understands polling--
the statisticians--haven't simply admitted this rather than make like it's some complicated exercise--it isn't.

It's alot of work. Same as anything else if you want to be the best--and create new methods--for success. Numbers are still numbers whether its 5, 101 or pi

By the way--do you mind me asking--what is your real name?

glen

ROBBINS Sce Research

I must admit that you are also quite the clairvoyant:

But this tidbit is my all time favourite:

http://www.robbinssceresearch.com/polls/poll_437.html

1. "22,680" phone numbers????

2. "5,400 random contacts"??? (a REAL BC pollster typically only utilizes between a 500 - 800 sample size)

3. "Perfected with HUMAN BEINGS"??? Granted, the old Stanley Park Zoo certainly had a fair amount of chimpanzees;

4. The White Pages??? I'm used to the blue pages myself but they also include phone numbers from Timbuktu;

Very entertaining stuff.

Certainly Yuk Yuk's comedy club material!!! :D

Tired of Both

Can't they just both lose.

This is like a backward race. Seems like neither party wants to win.

Where are all the yard signs?

Has anyone else noticed how few election signs appear on the lawns of BC voters compared with previous elections? It appears many are playing their cards close to their chests this time around. What might this indicate?

Considering Liberal policies around property assessment and the loophole allowing for renovictions, you'd think there would be a lot more Liberal signs. Could it be that two terms of government scandal, law-breaking, hypocrisy, broken promises and idiotic mistakes have caused many voters to turn away from the Liberals?

As Socrates and Plato have

As Socrates and Plato have in the past--Duke 'invisible person' permit my explanation. Admittedly, on my site counter there are government around the world--privy council--institutions news agencies everywhere looking at our very early prediction of an NDP win--the criteria you are seeing employed by others was used here---after a fall session. (See Vaughn Palmer for comments about Opposition bumps after fall sessions).

Our first polls in 1999 and 2000 all respondents received an 8 x 11 sheet--we were conducting 4,000 to 5,000 at a pop--I would send the boxes to Christie Jung--with numbers blacked out--and he provided them for the press to see--film etc.

It was at that time--that I began to my first theory that outcomes at the 600 to 650 level were little different than 1,000 etc. We spent $100,000 in start up for these polls---the expensive big sample polls--provides you with strategic contacts--differing from random sample polls--ie respondent 1234 bc liberal jan 1, year 1---1234 bc liberal aug 1, year 1, 1234 bc liberal undecided nov 1, year 1

The human beings was meant to be sarcasm--
White pages--not voters list--white and blue as you say--isn't very funny.

The huge samples in the federal election preceded the Conservatives winning---and that and a national radio interview three months ahead of time--placed us in the position of suggesting you can --all things being relatively equal predict a win early---particularly in circumstances where the government is weakening and the opposition charging.

In the face of this Duke----there is much to be learned---and I hope ROBBINS has brought you forward on this. With a positive attitude and hard work you too can lay claim to some excitement in your life--and one day will be proud to use your real name in public discourse--like the real players do---unless--unless

you are actually Gordon Campbell

@SCE RESEARCH

Ignore Duke,your commentary and explanation is plausible,I am a little more simple.

I say,who`s ox hasn`t been gored by Campbell?

Seniors,children,public sector,hydro users,transit users,ferry users,.....

Campbell has insulted people`s intelligence over a useless gas tax(calling it a planet saver) massive pay raises,cost over runs,broken promises,corruption,corruption,did I mention corruption.

And lastly,people are SICK and TIRED od seeing,hearing Campbell,even BC Liberals are sick and tired of Campbell.

This election is turning,the NDP were at low tide,the water stopped going out and it is now flooding,flooding towards the NDP.
Campbell is desperate,he sounds desperate,looks desperate,and the biggest factor in this election......
80% of the people in this province DON`T TRUST GORDON CAMPBELL