The NDP came to question period today armed with an economist's report that concluded the 2009-2010 budget released last week grossly underestimated the likely deficit.
“A deficit of $1 to $1.5 billion or 0.6 percent of GDP in 2009/10 is the more likely outcome due to revenue shortfalls,” said the Central 1 Credit Union report.
That's two to three times the $495 million deficit in the budget documents Finance Minister Colin Hansen presented Feb. 17.
Helmut Pastrick is the credit union's chief economist and an author of the report. He also sits on the 12-member Economic Forecast Council that advises the government.
Asked about the difference between the deficit he predicts and the budget's prediction, Pastrick said, “You'd have to ask them. I just look at the numbers, and that's what I found.”
The seven-page report argues that the budget's assumption of a 0.9 percent drop in Gross Domestic Product is overly optimistic and revenues will likely be lower than predicted. “Revenue in 2009/10 is not likely to be realized, particularly in the personal income, social service, and property transfer lines.”
The report notes that the government dropped the forecast allowance from the budget. Last year the allowance was $750 million.
"During an economic recession with many possible downside risks and high uncertainty, the need for a budget cushion is greater than during a normal or strong economic growth phase," the report said. "The buffer in Budget 2009 is among the smallest in recent years and is especially small when situated in the weakest economy in many years."
Pastrick said he did not, however, add a forecast allowance onto his deficit projection. Doing so would push his prediction to between $1.75 and $2.25 billion.
“This budget is based on sand,” said NDP leader Carole James in question period. “The experts don't believe the government's numbers, why should the public?”
The economic forecast was averaged from the predictions of independent advisers, responded Hansen, and the budget was written by professional civil servants. It is not a deliberate misrepresentation, he said. “In this government we do not do that.”
Pastrick said it is hard to make predictions with economic conditions deteriorating rapidly. “Events continue to overtake these assumptions,” he said. “Forecasters and policy makers are in catch up mode.”
The government will have to bring forward updated budget figures with its quarterly reports, he said.
Of course the first quarterly report for the 2009-2010 budget won't come forward until September, several months after the May 12 election.
The Tyee's Will McMartin last week dissected the budget and concluded "Expenditures have been artificially dampened, revenues boosted heavenward and a fiscal shock-absorber eliminated, all to create the illusion of a fiscal shortfall that is probably just one-quarter to one-fifth of its actual size."
Andrew MacLeod is The Tyee’s Legislative Bureau Chief in Victoria. Reach him here.


Andrew Macleod
The budget is a con job,the 1996 budget was suspect but the comic,well.......
It is a load of crap......
There will be a september surprise,no,I stand corrected,there will be a may 12th surprise.
Todays supplimentary debates are a disgusting display by Kevin Kreuger---"Not one dime without debate!"
Kreuger has been muzzled--God-bye BC Liberals/ your sunk Campbell/ towns won`t fall for Campbell`s dribble of cash!
Lies and deceit
Yes. One of his comments in 2001 - "I will not tear up collective agreements." Well we know what he did right after. Kicked 7000+ out of work for the multinationals to come in.
I will not sell BC Rail. Mmhmm.
Building 5000 long term care beds. Right.
The list continues.
This government is the worst this province has ever had. I can't imagine what will happen after May 12 if they get in. Heaven help all of us as they then tell us the truth about how bad the situation really is!
This budget is a farce.
They don't know how to be honest. Hide and play with the numbers just like with the Olympic numbers (i.e. the Sea-to-sky is not for the Olympics). What we need is a forensic accounting of the government books and the sooner the better.
"The economic forecast was
"The economic forecast was averaged from the predictions of independent advisers, responded Hansen, and the budget was written by professional civil servants. "
The minister could clear things up for us by releasing the predictions of these "independent" advisors. Surely, these advisors would be willing to sign off on their predictions, right?
Helmut Pastrick and CUCBC...
IMHO, the most respected economic forecaster out there.
He did also make some other observations of note:
Bullshit.........
Helmut Pastrick was ignored,his predictions were ignored,central credit union is calling for a 1.5 billion dollar deficit!
This comic book budget is laughable,almost as funny as Luke using the name of someone who is calling Hansen`s budget bullshit!
Luke,this is why your spin is NOT BELIEVABLE--income tax up-400 million,sales tax up,booze revenue up,gambling revenue up,every revenue up,get off your horse LUKE, just admit it,it`s a toxic fudge budget,that will be Campbell`s down fall,he can`t stop lying,Hansen can`t stop lying,Oppal is lying,everyone of them is lying,......
I know so many Liberals(ex liberals) that are in disgust with Campbell,they can`t stand liars.
Campbell has been lying for 7 years/10 months, well let him enjoy his last 2 months of lying,Campbell is so gone,Campbell will be lucky to 25 seats!
quarry bay...
Well, it gets even better under the NDP. ;)
1. The NDP will forego the $600 million in annual revenue from the carbon tax;
2. The NDP will introduce the annual $1 billion in James Bonds - 007 Series;
3. The NDP has been squawking about increasing annual funding in 2009/10... health care, education, you name it... another conservative $1 billion;
Add it all up and you have a rough additional $2.5 billion deficit under the NDP... and add it to whatever you believe the 2009/10 deficit will be.
Politically, that's gonna be dynamite with the electorate. Again, if the BC NDP could only learn from the successful neo-liberal Manitoba New Deomcrats under Premier Gary Doer.
But they never will.
Get real........
Three hydro increases last year,two more increases already this year --1.6% from cabinet and another 14% over 2 years, on top of the 11% in december/2008/on top of the 2 tier rate in october /2008/ on top of the 15% increase in april/2008.
Liquor rates announced going up again,and a 200.00 per car,per year levy in july from ICBC for Translink,
Go spin your crap/carbon tax elsewhere/ the carbon tax isn`t a tax cut,it hurts jobs,it hurts BC/ money in money out,.......
Ya got it,THE CARBON TAX ISN~T A TAX CUT.
More fees,more taxes,more Campbell lies/
http://www.vancouversun.com/Hike+booze+prices+have+British+Columbians+crying+beer/1321423/story.html
http://www.vancouversun.com/cabinet+orders+cent+Hydro+rate+hike/1321307/story.html
More taxes,more charges,more fees, what damn good is a phoney Campbell gas tax refund and Campbell invents taxes and fees left,right,and center.
ABC Anyone But Campbell
The Bonds don`t add debt
We are building infrastructure,bonds are a volentary buy,get real,Campbell will kill what`s left of this province by nickel and diming everyone.
Gordon Campbell A proven LAWBREAKER, A PROVEN LIAR, the biggest BC provincial debtor goverment in history.
More taxes brought in under Campbell than any other BC goverment
BC Hydro rates have tripled under Campbell
MSP premiums have doubled
GAS TAXES tripled under CAMPBELL
PARK FEES--RECYCLING FEES going into general revenue
ICBC rates doubled under CAmpbell
transit fares DOUBLED UNDER CAMPBELL
I hope your getting paid a big bonus LUKE,if I was you,I would ask for my bonus before the election,because you won`t get it after the election because,
CAMPBELL`S CHECK WRITING AUTHORITY IS BEING TAKEN AWAY
neo - liberal?
Luke you've been beaten up about this before neoliberal and neocon are the same thing. Whatever the Manitoba's NDP government is it is not neo liberal.
The 600 million in carbon tax was spent in tax cuts to big corporations in exchange for Liberal Party campaign donations. Tens of billions could be repatriated by taxing them back.
Oh and you seem to have forgotten the 60 to 75 billion in taxpayer commitments to Gordo's big campaign donators in exchange for lucrative 15% rate of return private public partnerships. Build them ourselves 4% borrowing cost let the New York hedge funds do it - yes 4 times the cost. Except if the taxpayer owned the project those commitments would show up on the books as debt - can't have that.
Despite the slick bookkeeping what pundits have missed so far is the 15 billion increase of overall debt over the ten years of the NDP government, is the the same debt increase predicted if the Liberals can last to 10 years at 2011. And the Liberals ruled over the biggest economic boom in history while the NDP went thru the Asian flu.
How you guys can continue to get away with the Liberals are great businessman schtick with this record is incredible.
Watching question period
Watching question period today was a indication of how Hansen's mind works. All is great, the NDP were awful and a independent company checked the estimates. Most folks know it's Bs but the folks supporting Gordo figure its great
A sad sick pathetic repulsive nauseating .....
Gordon Campbell
http://www.bclocalnews.com/bc_north/terracestandard/opinion/letters/39676954.html
seth...
I always chuckle when posters here state that the Manitoba NDP is not neo-liberal.
Face it, the BC NDP doesn't want BC'ers to know what Gary Doer's New Democrats public policy decisions are in order to protect their left-wing vote flank.
Manitoba Hydro, under the Manitoba NDP, engaging in private power IPP's is good... but here in BC it's bad. Come on.. lol
If ya follow Manitoba politics, every political columnist as well as former New Democrats there agree that Gary Doer operates as a neo-liberal.
Fer instance:
http://canadiandimension.com/articles/2007/06/28/1190/
Now most people in Manitoba and Canada would refer to Gary Doer's policies as neo-liberal.
Only on the Tyee do posters call those policies as "social democratic" ;)
Heck, these days...
Any budget projections are sucker plays. It doesn't matter if you're Warren Buffet, George Soros, the Sheik of Arabia or the BCNDP, it's all a gamble.
They might as well go see Robbie.
...You know, I think I'm gonna go down to Madam X
And let her read my mind
She said "That Voodoo stuff don't do nothing for me."
I'm a man with a clear destination
I'm a man with a broad imagination
You fog the mind, you stir the soul
I can't find, ... no control
Catch the blue train
To places never been before
Look for me
Somewhere down the crazy river
Somewhere down the crazy river
Catch the blue train
All the way to Kokomo
You can find me
Somewhere down the crazy river
Somewhere down the crazy river
Wait, did you hear that
Oh this is sure stirring up some ghosts for me
She said "There's one thing you've got to learn
Is not to be afraid of it."
I said "No, I like it, I like it, it's good."
She said "You like it now
But you'll learn to love it later." "
Somewhere Down The Crazy River
by J.R.Robertson.
To Put Things Into Further Perspective...
El Gordo decreased the BC tax structure by ~$2 billion after coming into office in 2001.
Manitoba has less than 25% of BC's population. Ergo, with BC's population base, Gary Doer would have cut a quasi-equivalent amount of ~$3.2 billion in taxes in Manitoba.
New Democrat Premier Gary Doer out did El Gordo in tax cuts. Imagine that!
Only at the TYEE........
Would Luke Skywalker mention child poverty about another province when BC has led CANADA in CHILD POVERTY for 6 STRAIGHT YEARS.......
ONLY at the TYEE would LUKE SKYWALKER mention low wages about another province when BC has over 300.000 thousand people making 8.00 per hour and BC under Gordon Campbell is the only province with a 6.00 per hour minimum wage!
Thank the lord,thank god,thank you everyone who is voting CAMPBELL DOWN THE RIVER.
May 12/ The big cleansing.....ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC ......Anyone but Campbell....Anyone but CAMPBELL
Nobody but the unimformed......
Believes a word about Campbell being a tax cutter,because the opposite is true......
Remember this fact-finding tour?
http://thetyee.ca/Views/2004/10/22/RecordSalesTaxesThisYr/
poor luke
A neo liberal is is basically a libertarian like Ron Paul - governments can't
do anything right. Steven Harper's thoroughly discredited person Chicago School along with its Nothern Bible branch - the Uuniversity of Calgary are neoliberal institutions. None of above applies to Gary Doer's NDP government.
Luke is noted for a singularly unique interpretation of political and economic matters that no doubt stems from his inability to understand even basic English.
Luke Vader
"Politically, that's gonna be dynamite with the electorate. Again, if the BC NDP could only learn from the successful neo-liberal Manitoba New Deomcrats under Premier Gary Doer."
Too bad you haven't learned from the previous 15 times you and your penchant for unattributed quotes have been taken behind the woodshed and proven wrong about Doer. But instead you run away when challenged on the facts and then pop up again a month later repeating the same lies.
The fact is you've never lived in Manitoba, never lived under either Doer or Romanow yet you try and pass yourself off as some sort of expert on the prairie NDP.
But its obvious to us all why you do it, you can't defend Campbell and would rather spend your time attacking the NDP.
Liberals everywhere
Ontario Liberals are just like BC Liberals apparently, they let kids die and then try and cover it up.
"Why did 90 children die?
Ontario's child advocate was appalled to learn how many in the province's welfare system die each year and is equally shocked at how difficult it is to get answers"
http://www.parentcentral.ca/parent/article/591523
More Manitoba
BC loses 60,000 jobs last month under Campbell. Manitoba on the other hand loses only 1900 (600 of them full-time).
http://www.winnipegsun.com/money/2009/02/06/8290906.html
But then the NDP in Manitoba (and in Sask until a year ago) had lower unemployment than the Liberals in either BC or Ontario.
I see public unions like Doer too because of the way he defends public healthcare unlike Campbell. In fact, he's to the left of the 1990's BC NDP when it comes to healthcare.
http://www.nupge.ca/news_2005/n22de05b.htm
The increase in health care spending was almost 8%
The BC Libs raised tuition, in Manitoba they cut tuition and increased bursaries.
"The budget continues the NDP government's tuition freeze at Manitoba's post-secondary institutions
Average funding to the provinces' universities and colleges will increase seven per cent"
Imagine that, a tuition freeze and an increase in funding.
In BC the Vancouver Sun said on its front page, when referring to the Campbell tax cuts "Wow!". In Manitoba the same newspaper chain called Doer's tax cuts "modest" and seemed to back the opposition Conservative view of the cuts being "insufficient".
How modest were the cuts for 2008?
" * A single person earning $40,000 would save $46.
* A senior couple earning $40,000 through private pension income and old age security pension would save $43.
* A family of four with one earner making $60,000 would save $194.
* A family of four with two earners making $100,000 a year would save $127."
"The government also increased the education property tax credit to $525 from $400. The farmland education tax rebate was also increased by five percentage points to 65 per cent.
The province will also invest more than $14 million in child care to backfill a withdrawal of funds that were expected to come through a program of the former Liberal federal government, which was killed by the Conservative government."
In BC, Campbell tries to fix the environment by gutting the ministry and increasing the gasoline tax. In Manitoba Doer brings in Hydro loans of up to $20,000 for people to put in geothermal systems.
In BC Campbell hands the producing of power to the private sector and lets them sell it to the US. In Doer's Manitoba, no chance.
Campbell likes to kick the poor
This blurb from the CCPA is also quite interesting :
"The federal government says that it is working with the provinces, territories and First Nations to reduce child poverty. To achieve that goal, Ottawa and most of the provinces and territories have agreed that the supplementary funds paid out by the federal government may be clawed back out of the welfare benefits of families and reinvested by the provinces and territories in other children's programs. This means that the only families that saw their incomes rise in 2000 as a result of the NCBS were in Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick and, to a lesser extent, Manitoba; they were joined in 2001 by Nova Scotia, Manitoba for families with children under the age of seven, and Quebec. The other provinces and territories used a variety of methods for clawing back this money: some deducted it from welfare cheques, some deducted it from the provincial family allowance."
Notice how BC is one of those where the poor didn't gain from the federal program because Campbell clawed the Federal money back?
Manitoba Hydro
"Manitoba Hydro, under the Manitoba NDP, engaging in private power IPP's is good... but here in BC it's bad. Come on.. lol"
LOL is right. You must have missed the fact that your favourite little P3 wind farm in Manitoba represents less than a tiny fraction of Manitoba'a power, has to sell its power to Hydro and that a referendum has to be held if the gov't tries to copy Campbell and privatize even part of Hydro.
Your Doer fantasy just doesn't align with the reality but that's not surprising since if you lived in Sask or Manitoba you wouldn't vote NDP regardless fo Doer or anyone else, you'd vote for the most right-wing party available, just as you do here.
Ontario Liberals
In their very first year in office McGuinty increased taxes and introduced health care premiums.
Here in BC, Campbell cut taxes for the rich and increased them for everyone else.
I guess they should talk to each other more and make sure Liberal governments bring in the exact same policies because they seem to disagree with each other a lot.
BC Liberals = Reform Party
In the 2008 federal election the NDP got 26.1% of the vote. The Liberals got 19.3%. The Greens got 9.4% and the Cons got 44.4%.
Obviously most Liberals vote NDP provincially and only a small amount vote with their Reform Party buddies for Campbell. (The Green vote in the 2005 provincial election and the 2008 federal election was in both cases around 9%)
The numbers are close to the same in Manitoba where Liberals also vote in large numbers for the NDP provincially.
Of course the Liberal party in Manitoba (and Saskatchewan) is pretty much dead. And the BC Liberal party is obviously misnamed since its actually a provincial version of the Reform Party.
In the Canadian West the NDP is the only alternative to the Reform Party and real Liberals know it.
BC NDP = ????
BC Federal Results:
C - 45%
L - 19%
N - 26%
With Mustel having the NDP between 33% and 36% in their last two polls, the federal NDP vote of 26% + (7% - 10%) of the federal Liberal vote equates to their provincial standing.
That 7% - 10% does not equate to the 19% federal Liberal vote.
To further complicate matters, in BC's interior the switchers are predominantly federal CPC ---> provincial NDP.
Frank...
Ya still don't get the facts straight...
The Manitoba Hydro IPP St. Leon Wind Farm is the largest in Canada and would equate to ~400 MW of electrical generation in BC based upon population.
Furthermore, Manitoba Hydro put out this RFP:
That 300 MW would equate to ~1,200 MW of electrical generation in BC based upon population.
That's a comparative total of 1,600 MW.
BC Hydro's $6 billion proposed Site C dam will only have 900 MW capacity.
Artificial facts
"The Manitoba Hydro IPP St. Leon Wind Farm is the largest in Canada and would equate to ~400 MW of electrical generation in BC based upon population."
You're puffing up the size of the wind farm by adjusting for population differences? So in other words, not a fact, not the actual percentage of the wind farm to Manitoba's overall power production, nor the actual output, instead you create an artificial fact. That's lame.
Here's a real fact, note the difference with your artificial one.
"Starting in 2005, a wind farm was built near St. Leon, Manitoba. Power generated by this privately constructed plant is purchased by Manitoba Hydro for distribution on its network. The capacity of this installation is 99.9 MW, comprising 63 wind turbines of 1.65 MW each. This is the first privately owned grid-connected generation to be constructed in Manitoba in nearly fifty years. Energy produced by this facility will is subsidized by the Canadian Government's Wind Power Production Incentive, though over the life of the project tax revenue will exceed the value of the initial subsidy."
Luke Manning
"With Mustel having the NDP between 33% and 36% in their last two polls"
Polls? I used actual election results, not fluctuating Mustel polls.
Actual election results show most Liberals vote NDP in BC, Sask and Manitoba.
The NDP is the natural home of federal Liberals in all 3 provinces because the NDP draws from both the Left and the Centre.
You on the other hand vote for the provincial version of the Reform Party just like all of Harper's supporters.