Two of the twelve members of B.C.'s Economic Forecast Council are predicting negative growth for at least part of 2009.

On average, as presented in a finance ministry table, the economists from various banks and financial planning companies figured growth would be 1.3 percent in 2008, down slightly from earlier predictions, and 0.6 percent in 2009.

But the TD Bank's vice president, Derek Burleton, was at the more pessimistic end of the spectrum, predicting the provincial economy will shrink by 0.2 percent next year. Based in Toronto, he could not be reached for comment Friday afternoon.

The chief economist for the Central 1 Credit Union, Helmut Pastrick, is predicting zero percent growth for 2009. “At my zero number, that's for the entire year,” he said. “Even in my number it could entail a negative quarter or two . . . It's possible we'll have a quarter or two of contraction.”

Many of the factors are external to the province, he said. They include the weakness of the United States' economy, the global financial crisis which has increased the cost to borrow money and the slowing housing market. He expects the employment rate will drop, he said, especially with most of the Olympic-related construction already winding down.

On the positive side, he said, the price of energy is down, mortgage rates were recently cut and the Bank of Canada interest rate is expected to be cut soon.

It will be easier to tell in hindsight whether the province has gone into recession, he said. “Either way '09 is going to be one of the poorest years we've had in quite a while, probably since 2001, for the B.C. economy.”

The next B.C. election is scheduled for May 12, 2009. Voting when the economy is weak is generally thought to favour opposition parties. In B.C., premier Gordon Campbell has repeatedly argued his government's policies have been responsible for the boom.

The external forces slowing the provincial economy are largely beyond the control of the provincial, and even the federal, government, Pastrick said. “Often politicians take too much credit for the good times and too much blame for the bad times.”

The Economic Forecast Council, on average, anticipated a bounce back to 2.7 percent growth in 2010.

Andrew MacLeod is The Tyee’s Legislative Bureau Chief in Victoria. Reach him here.