Please Advise! How New Is Nenshi?

[Editor’s note: Steve Burgess is an accredited spin doctor with a PhD in Centrifugal Rhetoric from the University of SASE, situated on the lovely campus of PO Box 7650, Cayman Islands. In this space he dispenses PR advice to politicians, the rich and famous, the troubled and well-heeled, the wealthy and gullible.]

Dear Dr. Steve,

Last week Naheed Nenshi was elected as the new Alberta NDP leader. Were you surprised?

Signed,

Flaming Red

Dear Red,

Surprised? Is Dr. Steve shocked when geese defecate on the sidewalk? Is Dr. Steve amazed every time a character in a Lifetime movie realizes there's more to life than climbing the corporate ladder?

No, Dr. Steve was not surprised by the result of the NDP leadership race. Episodes of PAW Patrol have more dramatic tension. The star has to survive — when you see Tom Hanks hitting the beach in the opening scene of the war flick, you don't waste time worrying, “Gosh, I hope poor Tom doesn't stop a bullet in the first 15 minutes.” For the filmmakers, the real battle was getting Tom's name on a contract. Same with the Alberta NDP — getting Nenshi into the game was a coup. He was not likely to get bumped off before you even get your popcorn.

But those Hallmark movies never show you what comes after the honeymoon. And Tom doesn't always make it through the entire film. For Nenshi, too, the big fights are yet to come.

Life is not easy for the Alberta NDP. Cartoonist Ruben Bolling once created a superhero-supervillain combo: Particularly-Good-at-Archery-Man and his nemesis — “The one enemy I can’t defeat!” — Barely-Competent-with-a-Machine-Gun-Man. For Dr. Steve, that neatly describes the Alberta NDP and the United Conservative Party.

Being NDP leader in Alberta is like being a mole rat in a beauty pageant, a sea lamprey at a pie-eating contest, a squirrel in the NBA. You're at a basic disadvantage. UCP Leader Danielle Smith could start the campaign by saying getting cancer is your own damn fault, recommending “neutrality” on Ukraine, and starting the Second World War on D-Day, and still cruise past you like it's the Indy 500 and you're riding a purple Schwinn with tassels and a basket.

Alberta elections are like a sack race where only one competitor has to wear a sack, and that sack features a picture of Satan.

After, of course, the UCP will congratulate themselves on their stunning victory. As former Texas governor Ann Richards once said of George Herbert Walker Bush, “He was born on third base and thinks he hit a triple.”

Perhaps more to the point, a traditional New Democrat in Alberta is like a dentist at Halloween. The NDP's usual themes of environmental responsibility do not go over well in a province where even the NHL team names involve extraction and combustion. As Homer Simpson once said, “You don't make friends with salad,” and going green doesn't get you elected premier of Alberta, either.

That's why Nenshi says his first order of business is a divorce from the national NDP. He clearly figures he can't win unless he has the freedom to stand up publicly and tell Jagmeet Singh to go get stuffed. Which he is likely to do, pronto — even now, Nenshi is probably doing special exercises to limber up those middle fingers.

Nenshi may not echo Smith's loopy conspiratorial rhetoric and random quackery, but he is likely to copy one page from the premier's playbook: the us-against-them stance vis-a-vis Ottawa. Even if Smith's quasi-separatist drivel is avoided, the basic message will remain — Nenshi too will pledge to protect Alberta resource jobs from the hippies and bleeding hearts.

Being a star does help. There is a pure, unalloyed power in celebrity that can override particular policy issues. Nenshi's leadership will offer a name-recognition boost, and there is always the chance that at least some Albertans will get tired of anticipatory cringing whenever Smith opens her mouth. Will voters choose fame, or notoriety? We have come to know, as surely as Hillary's emails, that the result is not always predictable.