politico

EDITED FOR PERSONAL SPARRING -- TYEE MODERATOR

"Almost every poll released shows a Liberal decline within the margin of error for polling."

Last election the Liberals got 30.23% of the vote. No polls have been showing them that high. When all polls have consistently shown them to be below that figure its wishful thinking to still claim that's what they'll get.

The Cons last election got 36.27% of the vote. Pretty much the same as they'll get this election in spite of the National Post and the Globe declaring Conservative support to be rising almost daily.

The NDP got 17.48%

So the NDP and the Greens have risen at the expense of the Libs.

The narrative over the last few years from the right-wing press has been that the NDP would be wiped out this election. Squeezed between the Libs and Greens. I see no evidence that is happening.

Nice Try

EDITED FOR PERSONAL INSULTS - TYEE MODERATOR

1) The debate has been about polling you chose to respond with actual votes garnered. That is called comparing apples and oranges. Nice try.

2) This whole notion that a few percentage points is going to deliver a stampede of new seats based on your 2% spin is interesting but, you and I know, that those percentages need to be focused in certain ridings to deliver those results and the ingredients for that this time around is simply not there. In fact, in BC the Libs will probably gain a seat in Saanich - Gulf Islands and Catherine Bell could very well lose a seat.

I do not disagree that the Libs will have trouble maintaining their percentage of the vote and may even lose seats. As I said Layton and Harper have worked well togethor to destroy the leadership capacity of Stephen Dion and the media has served well as the echo chamber to their effort which will result in diminished numbers.

What you fail to answer is to what end?

You also neglect to acknowledge that the greens have been the main beneficiary of the Liberal sag, which proves that speaking in realistic terms while supporting the Liberals to prevent the Conservative lock on power is a more effective strategy than making the delusional claim that the NDP is going to form government while slagging the Liberals.

Finally "the narrative" you disclose was yesterdays spin. Today's narrative is not about the NDP getting pinched by the green and the Libs but the Libs being surpassed by the NDP. An even more fictional tale, especially given the consistency of the 19% polling figures delivering 30 seats not once but twice in our electoral history.

I agree the Cons are not experiencing the groundswell the media portrays, but nor is the NDP.

In the end, We will have to be happy with the almost inevitable result of little if any change accept the ratcheting up of the rhetoric after the election. Which will only serve the Cons.

politico

"1) The debate has been about polling you chose to respond with actual votes garnered. That is called comparing apples and oranges. Nice try."

In other words, you don't like comparing the historical record with the polls in spite of the fact you cheered Luke's doing the same.

"What you fail to answer is to what end?"

Gaining more seats. What other end is there?

"You also neglect to acknowledge that the greens have been the main beneficiary of the Liberal sag"

Really, if you look back over the comments you'll find I'm the one that mentioned it. You'll find it in my 5th post, 2nd paragraph, from 2 hours ago. Are you now claiming my words as your own?

"which proves that speaking in realistic terms while supporting the Liberals to prevent the Conservative lock on power is a more effective strategy than making the delusional claim that the NDP is going to form government while slagging the Liberals"

So you believe that the rise in Green support has been effective at stopping the Conservatives? I'd love to hear more about why that is since most people would believe the opposite.

"Finally "the narrative" you disclose was yesterdays spin. Today's narrative is not about the NDP getting pinched by the green and the Libs but the Libs being surpassed by the NDP."

And yesterday's spin is being put to bed. Its a spin that even commentor's here have put forward over the last few months, including by Luke. As I said in an earlier post, I see no evidence of it.

"An even more fictional tale, especially given the consistency of the 19% polling figures delivering 30 seats not once but twice in our electoral history."

Please try to understand that it depends on the strength of the Liberals as to how many seats a given popular vote garners.

"In the end, We will have to be happy with the almost inevitable result of little if any change accept the ratcheting up of the rhetoric after the election. Which will only serve the Cons."

Speak for yourself, I'll be happy with the increase in votes and seats. As for the rhetoric, how does that serve the Cons?

GWest

"How many times?"

43

G West

Do you take particular pleasure for knocking your own fluff balls out of the park?

On leadership. Had Layton moved to fill the leadership void, as you suggest, versus spending two years creating it by attacking Stephan Dion along with Harper your observation might have merit.

In fact had Layton actually filled the void over the last two years by working with the opposition parties to stop the conservatives we might actually see a change this election instead of more of the same.

The only willful blindness of note is those that cannot see the nominal movement in the polls for the NDP as a direct result of their failed strategy. To continually attack the Liberals and in particular Dion only shores up the conservatives while alienating the New Democrat base. Mark my words, this strategy may attract votes from those interested in maintaining the status-quo and propping up the conservatives but at the very real cost of alienating the base.

politico

Layton attacks Harper, Dion attacks Layton (as he did on Cross Country Checkup last Sunday with Rex Murphy).

The NDP spent the last parliament opposing the Conservatives, the Liberals spent the last parliament supporting the Conservatives.

That's why most Canadians think the NDP would be a better official opposition than the Liberals.

Your facts don't exist, your observations have never been seen, your argument lacks substance.

It's About the BC Political Scene

Nanos (BC) compared to 2006:

CPC: 39% (+2%)
Lib: 27% (-2%)
NDP: 23% (-6%)
Grn: 10% (+5%)

Again, the Liberals goin' down, the NDP goin' further down.

The Cons goin' up, the Greens goin' further up.

The Con net spread over the Liberals is +4% from 2006 and +8% over the NDP from 2006.

As for current seat holdings, the Liberals and NDP respectively (so far) can kiss these seats good-bye to the Cons:

1. West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-SKS (Lib)
2. Newton-North Delta (Lib)
3. Vancouver Island North (NDP)
4. Surrey North (NDP)

Luke

We have actual election figures from 2006 Luke.

Frank

I find the minutia of your nuanced spin pointless and it serves little if any purpose but to prop up your own ego.

The facts are clear.

19% is exactly the same polling percentage the NDP had at the time of 2006 Vote.

For the first time in history the NDP has borrowed 18.5 dollars to execute a mindless strategy that does little but serve the conservative agenda.

This is proven because, to date, they continue to poll at an average of 19% nationally and based on your own benchmarks, this suggests they will garner little more votes or seats.

In fact seats in BC on Vancouver Island are in jeopardy, in particular, Catherine Bell's - regardless of the so-called "surge" in the NDP numbers here in BC.

You tend to want to believe the Liberals are crashing and burning yet it seems like they will pick up a seat in S-GI and take out a Cabinet Minister. I see no no new seats in the cards for New Democrats here in BC. Although Emerson's riding has potential, but I certainly do not see any NDPr's replacing conservatives.

The greens have increased their polling numbers considerably. We have both acknowledged that, but it was only I who acknowledged them being the main beneficiary to the apparent Liberal demise. This suggests to me, that May's strategy of pushing back against the Conservative agenda by supporting the opposition has played out better than Layton's delusional spin of attaining government while attacking the opposition.

Politico

How many times my friend?

How many times did Stephane publically acknowledge his own leadership shortcomings by absenting himself and/or his caucus and failing to show ANY leadership. Layton and the NDP showed up for those votes and the people of Canada noticed.

The man is a cipher. A nice enough cipher but as a leader he's underwhelming - the only hope for the Liberals now is their obviously insincere and face-saving 'team' approach.

As others here have commented, the Liberals are a spent force - particularly in British Columbia.

Why would any NDP leader work with the Liberal party?

The history of the Liberal Party in this country is one of co-opting ideas from the left. Cooperating with such snakes is a mug's game.

Layton was absolutely right to treat the Liberals as the snakes they are.

Perhaps you missed Ignatieff's statement the other day.

Further, as Frank observed here earlier, your case is weakened by the ad hominem style. A lot like the Liberals' campaign and not too dissimilar from Harper's efforts as well.

Saanich Gulf Island

One's pleasure at seeing the end of Lunn is tempered by the fact that the engineering of that win (which is in no way certain) was another example of the typical vote mau-mauing of 'liberal' politics which has been characteristic of the only kind of thing BC Liberals are really good at.

A carry over from the David Anderson years as cloned by the backroom boys that brought hero Dion to power - as always by playing on the lowest common denominator of politics.

Frank

The ad hominem style you tend to default to is a depiction of your imagination and only obfuscate the very real issues I am forwarding that will damage the NDP.

Your other default of continually demonizing the Liberals is boring and without substance.

They are the opposition, as are we, and unless you support the governing agenda you work to oppose no matter what your historic experience has been. Of course, if you go further back in history you will discover that we have worked well with liberals on issues that play to our common base.

Finally, the tired and relentless spin that somehow not accepting Harper and Layton's hollow threats that every vote is a "confidence vote" that forces an unwanted election translates into support for Harper is truly an insult to the intelligence of any remotely astute observer.

Green

May certainly has made 'her' preference known. IN her interview with Mansbridge she acknowledged precisely that she's in Dion's corner.

Is that the kind of 'leadership' you're looking for?

G west

Dion is no hero and Marrisen is as slimy as they come but suggesting the S-GI takeout is "liberal" business as usual is ignoring the fact that the dude who did it has more of a NDP track record than a Liberal one.

What is with you guys, you all get the same talking points?

Tell me, when you guys get your check for sitting on these blogs all day long does Harper actually sign it or does he just send it through the NDP apparatus?

G West

Actually Mays transcending petty partisan politics and frank recognition of who the real enemy is not only refreshing but does embody some of the bold, new leadership we desperately require, now that you mention it.

Politico

I disagree - I think she came across as a Liberal lover who's ditched her former Conservative bagman Brian Mulroney.

As for Zubyk, he's a sleaze - he was a sleaze when he worked for the NDP and his statement about the work-up on West was pathetic.

We definitely do need some decent leadership in the Liberal party - but, truth to tell, I hope they stick with Dion - he's not much of a threat.

Still with the personal remarks I see - doesn't bode well for your point of view.

There is very little difference between the Conservative enemy and the Liberal one - just ask David Emerson.

politico

"The facts are clear.. 19% is exactly the same polling percentage the NDP had at the time of 2006 Vote."

No it isn't. The NDP got 17% in the election as the figures I gave you showed. Where did you get 19% for the 2006 election?

"This is proven because, to date, they continue to poll at an average of 19% nationally and based on your own benchmarks, this suggests they will garner little more votes or seats."

A 2% in crease between 2004 and 2006 produced a roughly 50% gain in seats.

"The greens have increased their polling numbers considerably. We have both acknowledged that, but it was only I who acknowledged them being the main beneficiary to the apparent Liberal demise."

Again, my 5th post, demonstrates otherwise. Not that it matters.

"This suggests to me, that May's strategy of pushing back against the Conservative agenda by supporting the opposition has played out better than Layton's delusional spin of attaining government while attacking the opposition."

What opposition did May support? The only opposition to the Conservatives was the NDP.

politico

"The ad hominem style you tend to default to is a depiction of your imagination and only obfuscate the very real issues I am forwarding that will damage the NDP."

My style? Ya, whatever.

"Your other default of continually demonizing the Liberals is boring and without substance."

Unlike your demonizing of the NDP?

"They are the opposition"

Only officially, but in fact, they don't oppose.

"Finally, the tired and relentless spin that somehow not accepting Harper and Layton's hollow threats that every vote is a "confidence vote" that forces an unwanted election translates into support for Harper is truly an insult to the intelligence of any remotely astute observer."

Since Harper did declare them confidence votes it made it even easier to defeat them. But the Liberals weren't interested.

politico

As for E. May, if you're impressed with her then by all means you should vote for her. I think everyone should vote for something instead of against something.

What happened to the bolding, quotation and other devices?

Despite the fact a lot of people didn't know how to use them, being able to access HTML code easily was a strong feature of Tyee comments..

Why change?

By the way,

I'm still waiting for some hard evidence of this:

Layton and Harper have worked well togethor to destroy the leadership capacity of Stephen Dion

When can I expect delivery?

Luke

By the way, you said

"1. West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-SKS (Lib)"

But actually that seat is Green.

Brain Farts... :)

Frank:

What's the dif??? They elected a Liberal last time around and it's still a Con-Liberal contest. The Greens are third place (ahead of the NDP) in that riding.

G West:

Hmmmm... maybe ya better ask former New Democrat premiers Bob Rae (Ontario) and Ujjal Dosanjh (BC).

You know, the moderate wing within their respective provincial parties? :)

And currently the over-riding concern of Canadians relates to the economy.

And tonight from Strategic Counsel, here's Canadians view of the respective political parties ability to deal with the issue:

"Which party is best able to handle the negative consequences of the U.S. financial crisis on the Canadian economy?"

Conservatives: 41 per cent
Liberals 23 per cent
NDP 8 per cent
Green Party: 2 per cent
Bloc Quebecois: 1 per cent

That's certainly a ringing endorsement for the NDP, n'est pas? ;)

Luke

"You know, the moderate wing within their respective provincial parties?"

But you're a Paul Martin Liberal, so is the moderate wing of the liberals the side that's closest to the NDP or is it your side? The side closest to the Cons?

"That's certainly a ringing endorsement for the NDP, n'est pas?"

Pretty bad for the Libs too. So much for wrestling the deficit in the 1990's eh? People don't even give you any credit for that apparently. Even Liberal supporters say the Cons would be better.

New Math

There are lies, damn lies and statistics.

Sadly for the Lieberals this time around they have a dead albatross trying to lead them.

Dion's communications skills are deplorable, the fact that the debate will be on the same night as the VP debate in the US may actually help the Lieberals, less people in Canada will hear him.

Given that, provincially, the NDP are not in government there is a better than even chance that the NDP will grab a larger vote share than ever before...mostly due to a total melt-down in the Lieberal campaign. They are invisible here...the local candidate has been running back from his night classes to put up home-made signs on white painted clapboard.

The Lieberals have become a joke, here at least, and ultimately have not served enough time in the 'penalty box' for their collective indiscretions last time they were hip deep in the public trough.

I, would not be in the least surprised to see a PC majority (very slim), with the BLOQ as the 'loyal' opposition, and the NDP and Libs sharing an equal number of seats. A long-shot might even be to see the Libs reduced to a rump...anyone remember the PC's under Campbell...party of 2?

Luke

Just to be non-partisan for a moment, that poll about Conservatives being great on the economy demonstrates the effect that the pro-Conservatives media have had on people.

The reality of Brian Mulroney, Mike Harris, Grant Devine et al has shown the Conservatives to be pretty bad stewards of the economy, or at least no better than anyone else.

However, regardless of that old saw that people are too intelligent to be taken in by what they read, that's obviously not true, the federal Liberal record in the 1990's and the NDP record in Sask and Manitoba are ignored.

Which of course is why Canada needs more balance in its media instead of all-pro-corporate all the time.

Farts is right, Luke Skywalker!

Hmmmm... maybe ya better ask former New Democrat premiers Bob Rae (Ontario) and Ujjal Dosanjh (BC).

Believe me, Luke Skywalker I mention those two laughable farts every chance I get. Is Ujjal still holding Liberal recruitment sessions on a "warm, furry carpet"? Is he still tying to pick up Grewal? Is he the one who told Brad to hit the dirt road and hit it hard?

As for Rae, I think he's getting cranky and irritable as he gets older. How else do you explain his silly, sophomoric rant about plagiarism. Rae obviously thinks the House of Commons is just an extension of one's years at Upper Canada College. And the fact that he's taking it upon himself to go after the PMO, rather than the External Affairs Minister which is his assigned critic post, shows he's already dreaming ahead.

Liberals in free fall

The latest CTV poll has the Libs down to 24% nationally

Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey

Frank, is this the story you were refering to:

The Canadian Press OTTAWA -- A new poll suggests the Bloc Quebecois is continuing to regain ground that slipped away in mid-campaign, while the Conservative lead over the Liberals has risen to 12 points.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey puts the Tories at 36 per cent, with the Liberals off slightly at 24 per cent.

The NDP is at 17 per cent - off a percentage point - while the Greens are steady at 11 and the Bloc is up a point at 10.

If so, it suggests that the Liberal game plan, the basis of the May-Dion pact, is backfiring badly. It looks like the Greens are sucking away Liberal votes, leaving the NDP alone. That wasn't quite the idea, but it is what happened in the Vancouver Quadra byelection.

It's nice to see some smart operators getting caught in their own trap, isn't it?

Here's the link I got it from

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080929/election2008_national_poll_080930/20080930?s_name=election2008

Nanos has had the NDP at 20% now for the last couple of days. Libs at 25%/26% and the Cons down a bit to 36%. Greens are hanging on at 9%.

"It looks like the Greens are sucking away Liberal votes, leaving the NDP alone. That wasn't quite the idea"

This was exactly what I was saying yesterday to politico, that the pundits and our own friend Luke were calling for the NDP to be squeezed between the Libs and Greens. Instead its the Libs shedding supporters to the Greens.

NDP NOT ABLE TO HAND FINANCIAL CRISIS

It's interesting in your link that only 8% see the NDP as best able to handle the financial crises in the US. Jack Layton needs to spend more time talking about the value of people's RRSPs and the need for effective federal regulation of all financial institutions and markets. If he does that, he will get traction, because most provincial governments argue for provincial regulation. Any issue that gets some fed vs prov conflict going is bound to get coverage and therefore have some real impact on voters.

Budd

Yep, regardless of the NDP doing the best job on balanced budgets (according to StatsCan) the popular view aligns with the media's view, which is that Conservatives are genetically coded to better handle financial issues.

Its a crock but I don't think the NDP (or the Libs) can overcome that media inspired belief.

They can try

"Its a crock but I don't think the NDP (or the Libs) can overcome that media inspired belief"

Well, Frank, I think that's the standard assumption of most campaign planners and strategists. I don't happen to believe that's necessarily the case in all circumstances.

I think that when you have events as large as those occuring in the American markets, a window is opened, a "teachable moment" if you will. At that time a few statements that make sense on the subject at hand can alter long-standing assumptions and opinions in a short time. They should at least give it a try.

Budd

I agree they should try, can't hurt to give it a go. Harper should be attacked on his perceived strength.

No mention of CPP losses during election

Canadians have lost more than eighty billion dollars in retirement savings since March 31.

How come nobody is hitting Harper or Dion or Layton on this?

Harper recently allowed the Bank of Canada to prop up Wall St. by allowing short term loans for these crooks. How much is that going to cost us, Billions of dollars is my guess.

In the last 6 quarters the Canadian Pension Plan has made money only on its increased revenue from our paycheques. They haven't made a dollar from the stock market with all the "Safe Investments" that Investment houses hold of our money. How safe do you think it is having Investment houses trading in derivatives with CPP money?

Thank the Liberals when you go to retire.