Charting When NDP Votes Rise
Layton's team may be lucky New Dems aren't running BC or Ontario.
[Editor's note: This is the latest of a new feature on The Tyee through election day: Charting the Votes. In charts and prose, veteran political analyst Will McMartin breaks down the important factors in key B.C. races.]
In the federal election campaign now underway, the good news for federal New Democrats in B.C. and Ontario is that the two provincial wings are confined to the opposition benches. Moreover, as is suggested by the above chart, the party appears to be on a slight upward trajectory in both provinces.
Why does it matter who is running the provinces where the NDP is hoping to pick up big gains? Going into a fight -- or an election -- with one hand tied behind your back usually has negative consequences. And that's just the situation in which the federal New Democratic Party found itself in the early 1970s and the 1990s in British Columbia, and in the early 1990s in Ontario.
Federal New Democrats in those two provinces were handicapped by the fact that their provincial cousins had formed governments. The chart above illustrates that when provincial NDPers hold power in B.C. or Ontario, federal New Democratic Party MPs and candidates have been severely punished for their brethren's unpopularity.
The chart shows that the NDP garnered about one-third -- 32.7 per cent and 35 per cent -- of the popular vote in British Columbia in the 1968 and 1972 federal general elections.
In the latter year, however, the provincial New Democratic Party led by Dave Barrett won election to government. Over time, the Barrett administration became increasingly unpopular.
In 1974, disenchanted British Columbia voters were given an opportunity to vent their frustrations on the federal NDP. After taking one-in-three votes in the previous two contests, the federal wing collapsed to just 23 per cent of the vote, and their B.C. seat total fell from 11 to just two.
The Barrett government was turfed from office the following year, and the NDP's federal wing slowly recovered lost ground in the Pacific province. In the four federal general elections between 1979 and 1988, the New Democratic Party in B.C. garnered 31.9 per cent, 35.3 per cent, 35.1 per cent and 37 per cent of the vote -- the latter figure representing an historic high.
The party's seat total also soared, as the NDP elected eight, 12, eight and 19 B.C. MPs in those same four federal contests.
A BC decline in the 1990s
Misfortune reappeared, however, with the election in 1991 of a NDP government led by Mike Harcourt, and the re-election in 1996 of its successor under Glen Clark.
In the three federal general elections held in 1993, 1997 and 2000, the NDP's share of the vote in B.C. plummeted to anemic, all-time lows -- 15.5 per cent, 18.2 per cent and 11.3 per cent. The party's B.C. caucus also shrunk dramatically, to just two, then three, and finally to two again.
The chart above shows that the federal New Democratic Party began to regain their strength with the defeat of the provincial NDP government in 2001. The party climbed to 26.6 per cent of the vote in 2004, and then 28.5 per cent in 2006. The New Democrats elected five MPs in B.C. four years ago, and then 10 in the last contest.
The chart also shows that federal NDP strength in Ontario was fairly consistent over the two-decade period from 1968 to 1988, with support from slightly more than one-in-five voters.
That changed dramatically after the election in 1990 of a provincial NDP government led by Bob Rae. Cursed with a severe economic recession and unpopular policies, the Rae government lasted just a single term in office, and was defeated by Mike Harris's Tories in 1995.
In the 1993 federal general election, the NDP collapsed to just 6 per cent of the popular vote, or less than a third of their two-decade average. And after electing 10 Ontario MPs in 1988, the New Democrats failed to hold a single seat.
The recovery proved to be long and painful. In the 1997 federal general election -- two years after the Rae government's defeat -- the NDP in Ontario took just 10.7 per cent of the vote, and again failed to elect even a single MP. The results in 2000 were about the same, 8.3 per cent of the vote, but this time the New Democrats actually elected one lone member of Parliament.
Yet the last two federal general elections have seen a marked improvement for the Ontario NDP, as they captured 18.1 per cent and 19.4 per cent of the vote in 2004 and 2006 respectively. Even better for them, the NDP won seven seats, and then 12, over the same two contests. ![[Tyee]](http://thetyee.cachefly.net/ui/img/ico_fishie.png){kind=small}
Luke Skywalker
30-09-2008
BC NDP Vote
And it's likely that they won't achieve 30% federally in BC again for the foreseeable future.
The Liberals in BC, or western Canada for that matter, were dead from the late 1970's through the 1980's.
A legacy of the much hated PET, being perceived as "Quebec's" national party, their indifference to western Canada, and the one-finger Trudeau salute in Salmon Arm to round it off.
BC was strictly a PC-NDP battle during this period.
The Liberals were able to maintain a beachhead in Vancouver Centre in 1979 (Art Phillips) and Vancouver Quadra in '84/'88 (the John Turner/national leader sympathy vote).
For the past 15 years during 1993 and thereafter though, the Liberals have cemented themeselves within the City of Vancouver (additionally drawing from old Progressive Conservative voters and moderate new Democrats).
That's one reason why the NDP has never been able to regain the riding of Vancouver Kingsway subsequent to the 1988 election, for example. And it will be the same this time around.
murdock
30-09-2008
Communication...or lack therof
Mr Dion may be a very nice person, I think he is reasonably articulate in French, if a bit of a 'wind bag' running on at the mouth. This lack of brevity is why his 'quotes' are not often used on the nightly news broadcast, even in Quebec.
In English, Mr Dion is a complete failure.
Cretien may have muddled words, but he was good at brevity and had a 'common man' approach.
Dion has nothing to 'fall back' on. When his lack of easy communication fails, so does he.
With the 'nightly news' so concentrated on the illusion of 'leadership', then the need to have an effective communicator is paramount. Since money will come into the party with more votes I can see that the NDP decision to take this election as a possible launch pad is a good one...since their main competitor, the Liberals are going to crash and burn in so many places, this may be the right election to see if they can 'steal' more seats.
Layton can at least communicate in English, I am not so certain of his French, but then as long as the BLOQ takes more seats in PQ than the Conservatives this point is moot.
Frankly, outside of BC, I am surprised that the NDP is not faring better in the Maritimes.
Budd Campbell
30-09-2008
Vancouver Kingsway will elect Don Davies
That's one reason why the NDP has never been able to regain the riding of Vancouver Kingsway subsequent to the 1988 election, for example. And it will be the same this time around.
Dead wrong, Luke.
Without party in power status the Liberals will most likely lose all of their four City of Vancouver seats. The Vancouver Quadra byelection proved that months ago, and labour lawyer Don Davies will be the new MP for Vancouver Kingsway. (Admit it Luke, ... it really pisses you off that he's a labour lawyer, doesn't it?)
Without the aphrodisiac aroma of raw power, the Grits have no attractant capabilities left with either the young, fashion-dependent, urbane sophisticates, nor with immigrant communities. The urbane sophisticates just want to vote for a winner, and with the Red party languishing in opposition they are simply no longer interested. Immigrant communities have more concrete needs, access to offialdom that overcomes language and cultural barriers, and their leaders will be carefully counselling them on the need to now consider the Blue party.
The Liberals are struggling madly to save Ujjal Dosanjh, making him the voice and face of all their regional radio and TV spots, and I must admit there's a small chance they could keep him above the waterline with a Herculian effort, provided the CBC extends its usual level of assistance. But that would involve an early decision to completely abandon any voter contact work elsewhere in the City in order to throw all available volunteer and paid help into Vancouver South. Even then, the odds are against them.
It'll be nice to see Ujjal go down. If only there were a chance that Toronto Centre would terminate Bob Rae's annoying pretentions.