Opinion

A Tyee Series

Charting When NDP Votes Rise

Layton's team may be lucky New Dems aren't running BC or Ontario.

By Will McMartin, 1 Oct 2008, TheTyee.ca

Graph of NDP electoral results

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Also in this series:
Charting the Votes: Canada's Federal Election '08

[Editor's note: This is the latest of a new feature on The Tyee through election day: Charting the Votes. In charts and prose, veteran political analyst Will McMartin breaks down the important factors in key B.C. races.]

In the federal election campaign now underway, the good news for federal New Democrats in B.C. and Ontario is that the two provincial wings are confined to the opposition benches. Moreover, as is suggested by the above chart, the party appears to be on a slight upward trajectory in both provinces.

Why does it matter who is running the provinces where the NDP is hoping to pick up big gains? Going into a fight -- or an election -- with one hand tied behind your back usually has negative consequences. And that's just the situation in which the federal New Democratic Party found itself in the early 1970s and the 1990s in British Columbia, and in the early 1990s in Ontario.

Federal New Democrats in those two provinces were handicapped by the fact that their provincial cousins had formed governments. The chart above illustrates that when provincial NDPers hold power in B.C. or Ontario, federal New Democratic Party MPs and candidates have been severely punished for their brethren's unpopularity.

The chart shows that the NDP garnered about one-third -- 32.7 per cent and 35 per cent -- of the popular vote in British Columbia in the 1968 and 1972 federal general elections.

In the latter year, however, the provincial New Democratic Party led by Dave Barrett won election to government. Over time, the Barrett administration became increasingly unpopular.

In 1974, disenchanted British Columbia voters were given an opportunity to vent their frustrations on the federal NDP. After taking one-in-three votes in the previous two contests, the federal wing collapsed to just 23 per cent of the vote, and their B.C. seat total fell from 11 to just two.

The Barrett government was turfed from office the following year, and the NDP's federal wing slowly recovered lost ground in the Pacific province. In the four federal general elections between 1979 and 1988, the New Democratic Party in B.C. garnered 31.9 per cent, 35.3 per cent, 35.1 per cent and 37 per cent of the vote -- the latter figure representing an historic high.

The party's seat total also soared, as the NDP elected eight, 12, eight and 19 B.C. MPs in those same four federal contests.

A BC decline in the 1990s

Misfortune reappeared, however, with the election in 1991 of a NDP government led by Mike Harcourt, and the re-election in 1996 of its successor under Glen Clark.

In the three federal general elections held in 1993, 1997 and 2000, the NDP's share of the vote in B.C. plummeted to anemic, all-time lows -- 15.5 per cent, 18.2 per cent and 11.3 per cent. The party's B.C. caucus also shrunk dramatically, to just two, then three, and finally to two again.

The chart above shows that the federal New Democratic Party began to regain their strength with the defeat of the provincial NDP government in 2001. The party climbed to 26.6 per cent of the vote in 2004, and then 28.5 per cent in 2006. The New Democrats elected five MPs in B.C. four years ago, and then 10 in the last contest.

The chart also shows that federal NDP strength in Ontario was fairly consistent over the two-decade period from 1968 to 1988, with support from slightly more than one-in-five voters.

That changed dramatically after the election in 1990 of a provincial NDP government led by Bob Rae. Cursed with a severe economic recession and unpopular policies, the Rae government lasted just a single term in office, and was defeated by Mike Harris's Tories in 1995.

In the 1993 federal general election, the NDP collapsed to just 6 per cent of the popular vote, or less than a third of their two-decade average. And after electing 10 Ontario MPs in 1988, the New Democrats failed to hold a single seat.

The recovery proved to be long and painful. In the 1997 federal general election -- two years after the Rae government's defeat -- the NDP in Ontario took just 10.7 per cent of the vote, and again failed to elect even a single MP. The results in 2000 were about the same, 8.3 per cent of the vote, but this time the New Democrats actually elected one lone member of Parliament.

Yet the last two federal general elections have seen a marked improvement for the Ontario NDP, as they captured 18.1 per cent and 19.4 per cent of the vote in 2004 and 2006 respectively. Even better for them, the NDP won seven seats, and then 12, over the same two contests. [Tyee]

Veteran political analyst Will McMartin is a Tyee contributing editor.

25 Comments:

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  • Luke Skywalker

    3 years ago

    BC NDP Vote

    Quote:
    between 1979 and 1988, the New Democratic Party in B.C. garnered 31.9 per cent, 35.3 per cent, 35.1 per cent and 37 per cent of the vote -- the latter figure representing an historic high.

    And it's likely that they won't achieve 30% federally in BC again for the foreseeable future.

    The Liberals in BC, or western Canada for that matter, were dead from the late 1970's through the 1980's.

    A legacy of the much hated PET, being perceived as "Quebec's" national party, their indifference to western Canada, and the one-finger Trudeau salute in Salmon Arm to round it off.

    BC was strictly a PC-NDP battle during this period.

    The Liberals were able to maintain a beachhead in Vancouver Centre in 1979 (Art Phillips) and Vancouver Quadra in '84/'88 (the John Turner/national leader sympathy vote).

    For the past 15 years during 1993 and thereafter though, the Liberals have cemented themeselves within the City of Vancouver (additionally drawing from old Progressive Conservative voters and moderate new Democrats).

    That's one reason why the NDP has never been able to regain the riding of Vancouver Kingsway subsequent to the 1988 election, for example. And it will be the same this time around.

  • murdock

    3 years ago

    Communication...or lack therof

    Mr Dion may be a very nice person, I think he is reasonably articulate in French, if a bit of a 'wind bag' running on at the mouth. This lack of brevity is why his 'quotes' are not often used on the nightly news broadcast, even in Quebec.

    In English, Mr Dion is a complete failure.

    Cretien may have muddled words, but he was good at brevity and had a 'common man' approach.

    Dion has nothing to 'fall back' on. When his lack of easy communication fails, so does he.

    With the 'nightly news' so concentrated on the illusion of 'leadership', then the need to have an effective communicator is paramount. Since money will come into the party with more votes I can see that the NDP decision to take this election as a possible launch pad is a good one...since their main competitor, the Liberals are going to crash and burn in so many places, this may be the right election to see if they can 'steal' more seats.

    Layton can at least communicate in English, I am not so certain of his French, but then as long as the BLOQ takes more seats in PQ than the Conservatives this point is moot.

    Frankly, outside of BC, I am surprised that the NDP is not faring better in the Maritimes.

  • Budd Campbell

    3 years ago

    Vancouver Kingsway will elect Don Davies

    That's one reason why the NDP has never been able to regain the riding of Vancouver Kingsway subsequent to the 1988 election, for example. And it will be the same this time around.

    Dead wrong, Luke.

    Without party in power status the Liberals will most likely lose all of their four City of Vancouver seats. The Vancouver Quadra byelection proved that months ago, and labour lawyer Don Davies will be the new MP for Vancouver Kingsway. (Admit it Luke, ... it really pisses you off that he's a labour lawyer, doesn't it?)

    Without the aphrodisiac aroma of raw power, the Grits have no attractant capabilities left with either the young, fashion-dependent, urbane sophisticates, nor with immigrant communities. The urbane sophisticates just want to vote for a winner, and with the Red party languishing in opposition they are simply no longer interested. Immigrant communities have more concrete needs, access to offialdom that overcomes language and cultural barriers, and their leaders will be carefully counselling them on the need to now consider the Blue party.

    The Liberals are struggling madly to save Ujjal Dosanjh, making him the voice and face of all their regional radio and TV spots, and I must admit there's a small chance they could keep him above the waterline with a Herculian effort, provided the CBC extends its usual level of assistance. But that would involve an early decision to completely abandon any voter contact work elsewhere in the City in order to throw all available volunteer and paid help into Vancouver South. Even then, the odds are against them.

    It'll be nice to see Ujjal go down. If only there were a chance that Toronto Centre would terminate Bob Rae's annoying pretentions.

  • politico

    3 years ago

    T'is true

    I agree with McMartin in this instance.

    Clearly the hatred for the BC Liberals should spill over in a big way and threaten all of the Federal Liberal seats.

    Keith Martin will struggle as will Ujjal and Fry. Certainly Richmond is up for grabs.

    Especially as Jack and Harper continue fighting yesterdays battles and attacking Dion as if he were the guy calling the shots.

    In S-GI however Briony will buck the trend and take down a controversial mini-cabinet minister.

    The Greens stand to rake in more cash but no seats, the NDP unfortunately will enjoy only nominal gains and the cons of course will pretend it all means we love them and their agenda.

  • Luke Skywalker

    3 years ago

    This Budd's For You ...

    Quote:
    Without party in power status the Liberals will most likely lose all of their four City of Vancouver seats. The Vancouver Quadra byelection proved that months ago, and labour lawyer Don Davies will be the new MP for Vancouver Kingsway.

    Wrong again Budd.

    The Liberal's BC strength lies within the City of Vancouver and when the tide goes out it encompasses Richmond, Burnaby, and the North Shore.

    The NDP's strength is spread thinner all over and across BC.

    That said, Vancouver Kingsway has a high concentration of Chinese Canadians and the Liberals have a Chinese Canadian candidate in that regard.

    The NDP selected wrong in choosing a Caucasian, "labour lawyer". Wrong fit for the riding.

    BTW, Democratic Space predicted the BC seats virtually bang on in 2006, inclusive of the estimated percentage of popular vote for each candidate in each riding.

    Currently, Democratic Space has all four City of Vancouver seats (Quadra, Centre, Kingsway, and South) as relatively safe Liberal holds.

    As for Vancouver Kingsway, the current estimated percentages for each candidate:

    Lib - 35% - 39%
    NDP - 27% - 31%
    Con - 20% - 23%

    Quote:
    (Admit it Luke, ... it really pisses you off that he's a labour lawyer, doesn't it?)

    Why??? Most of my family and friends are union folk and Davies seems to be a moderate Teamsters fella. I just don't have time for the looney left leadership in the BCTF. :)

  • de Falla

    3 years ago

    Projected outcomes aside

    McMartin provides one of the commonly offered arguments for a divorce of the provincial and national wings of the NDP.

    It will be interesting to see if other arguments come to light in the post-mortem of this election.

  • Budd Campbell

    3 years ago

    Democratic Space = Liberal Strategic Voting Scams

    Currently, Democratic Space has all four City of Vancouver seats (Quadra, Centre, Kingsway, and South) as relatively safe Liberal holds.

    Democratic Space is run by a Liberal Party worshipper and is part of the Liberal Party's overall "vote strategic" scam, starring {b}Buzz Hargrove, Bob Rae, Ujjal Dosanjh{/b], etc. Its pretense to objectivity is a complete and total joke, and its list of strategic voting opportunities is an intentional fraud.

    It claims to screen input. It does. It accepts whatever drivel it's fed by Liberal operatives, while ignoring previous election results where they don't fit the approved script.

  • Luke Skywalker

    3 years ago

    Budd... Wrong Again

    You are referring to self-described Liberal "Milton Chan" of the Election Prediction Project with input from anyone, anywhere.

    Not Democratic Space. There is NO input on that site. BTW, did ya know that Greg Morrow of Democratic Space voted NDP in 2006???

  • Frank

    3 years ago

    Luke

    Democratic Space is an amateur operation.

    As said on babble.ca he is swayed by whoever he talked to last. Anyone looking to vote strategically would be better off throwing darts at pictures on a wall than going to Democratic Space.

  • Budd Campbell

    3 years ago

    Democratic Space makes cagey recommendations

    BTW, did ya know that Greg Morrow of Democratic Space voted NDP in 2006???

    I find that very, very difficult to believe. His site doesn't list obvious cases where Liberals should vote strategically for the NDP if their one and only object is to defeat the Tories.

  • Luke Skywalker

    3 years ago

    Democratic Space

    Methinks you guys are making some silly partisan statements against the website Democratic Space because ya don't like the numbers. :)

    IMHO, that's not how to be objective and analytical in determining outcomes... in anything.

    Here's Democratic Space's riding by riding prediction for BC in 2006 (inclusive of % for each candidate) and comparing the actual result. 95% bang on!

    http://democraticspace.com/canada/2005election/analysis-BC.pdf

    Show me somethin' better. You can't.

    Budd:

    Quote:
    BTW, did ya know that Greg Morrow of Democratic Space voted NDP in 2006???

    I find that very, very difficult to believe.

    Greg Morrow:

    Quote:
    In 2006, I proudly cast my vote for the NDP on principle.

    http://democraticspace.com/blog/2008/09/dear-jack-strength-is-more-than-a-slogan/#comments

  • Frank

    3 years ago

    Luke

    I think you like Democratic Space because it agrees with you, that people should vote Liberal even in seats held by the NDP.

    Which was pointed out to Mr Morrow on babble, he then went and changed some of the most glaring riding issues.

    But if you want to believe its accurate and scientific and all that rubbish feel free.

  • Luke Skywalker

    3 years ago

    Frank

    Quote:
    I think you like Democratic Space because it agrees with you, that people should vote Liberal even in seats held by the NDP.

    I have absolutely NO idea how you reach that conclusion.

    Show mean one BC riding... just ONE seat, that is projected to go Liberal that is currently held by the NDP in BC on DM.

    You can't because there ain't.

  • Frank

    3 years ago

    Luke

    From babble :

    "On democraticspace.com the prediction for St. John’s East suggests a Liberal edge while there are few doubts in St. John’s that this riding will be an NDP pick-up for popular former NDP Newfoundland and Labrador leader Jack Harris. A local poll here actually confirms that Harris is way out ahead."

    "I think Democratic Space does a much better job these days. EP seems to be more swayed by the flooding of predictions. Trinity-Spadina is said to be TCTC because a lot of Liberal hacks want people to believe it."

    And in reaction to the above comments

    "FYI, DemocraticSPACE has moved St. John's East into the NDP column."

    Then a reaction from Greg himself on his methodology

    "I cannot speak for others but I can say that we at DS do know what's happening on the ground in ridings. Take a look at the projections riding-by-riding and that should become clear, since many ridings simply don't follow the shifts in party support. FYI, we don't use national polls at all. We only use regional polling data. But we also keep close tabs on things happening at the local level, making adjustments for local candidates. We don't always get it right, but we're typically 92-94% right; keep in mind, aggregate polling data always has a margin of error, so ridings that are within 3% really are too close to call and depend entirely on a given campaign's GOTV efforts. Where we are wrong, it is usually in those too close to call ridings.

    We collect information, both quantitative and qualitative, from all sources. So if you've got info that might be relevant, feel free to send it."

    Later someone posted this

    "It seems that democratic space usually moves some riding to the ndp list of ridings only after there is a huge outcry from posters at places such at babble."

    As I said above, believe in Democratic Space all you like, I just don't see what your agenda is for pushing it.

  • Frank

    3 years ago

    By the way

    Democratic Space is predicting the Liberals will lose 21 seats and the NDP will gain 6.

    And that the Cons will fail to get a majority.

  • Frank

    3 years ago

    And...

    Before the election Nanos was your favourite national pollster. Kept saying how they were "bang on" last election. Now, you never mention them.

  • Luke Skywalker

    3 years ago

    Frank...

    Quote:
    Before the election Nanos was your favourite national pollster. Kept saying how they were "bang on" last election.

    Being the political junkie that I am, read Nano's poll tracking press releases every day!

    Quote:
    Democratic Space is predicting the Liberals will lose 21 seats and the NDP will gain 6. And that the Cons will fail to get a majority.

    Ahhhhh, but they have not yet incorporated today's numbers from Quebec's "gold standard" of polling - CROP (and differentiation from 2006 in brackets).

    BQ - 31% (-11%)
    CPC - 30% (+5%)
    NDP - 16% (+8.5%)
    Libs - 16% (-5%)
    Greens - 8%

    I'm now more than convinced than ever that the Cons have their majority... additional seats from BC, from the GTA's 905 belt, and from rural/exurban bleu Quebec, the heartland of the old conservative Union Nationale/Social Creditistes.

    BTW, an important lesson to view junk regional sub-samples from Quebec (or BC for that matter), such as Strategic Counsel's from yesterday, with a grain of salt:

    BQ: 45%
    Con: 24% per cent
    Lib: 18%
    NDP: 12%
    Green: 1%

  • G West

    3 years ago

    Not after that 'performance' in French

    The man looked to fairly squirm out of his skin - practically Uriah Heep-like in his feigned and phony humility.

    Duceppe was superb and Dion a disaster.

    Jack's French was colloquial and conversational - Quebecers will have been impressed.

    May won't be gaining anything in French Canada - but she certainly made little Steve look uncomfortable....

    Still, best marks to Duceppe.

  • greengreen

    3 years ago

    Saskatchewan

    Can anyone explain what has happened in Saskatchewan for years: provincial NDP governments but not one federal MP?. I have always found this hard to fathom. (ie., no relationship between provincial/federal political voting, as pointed out in this article).

  • Frank

    3 years ago

    greengreen

    Just my opinion here, but when I lived there, rural Saskatchewan supported the Conservatives regardless of how many of them went to jail, regardless of how they spent the Heritage Fund and took us from a balanced budget to massively in debt. It didn't matter what Devine did, he was considered god in "corduroy road" land.

    I lived with a few other guys from rural Sask while going to school and they were also very anti-NDP because they connected the NDP with urban folk. The NDP was anti-gun, pro-gay, anti-farm and all that. The Conservatives they connected with as being more individualistic, more understanding of farm life.

    The NDP provincially does get kicked out of office now and then which I think is healthy, wouldn't be any good for Sask to turn into a left-wing version of Alberta. But when Brad Wall does the usual Conservative bit of leaving the province broke the NDP will get voted back in to fix the finances.

    This time however, the Conservatives have inherited lots of oil money. So we'll see how that goes.

  • Frank

    3 years ago

    also

    Federally the seats were set up so that Saskatoon, for example, was split into parts so that lots of farm areas were added to different parts of the city. So instead of having two Saskatoon ridings you had Saskatoon-Humboldt, Saskatoon-Rosetown etc. Kind of like a "Gracie's finger" situation out here in BC. The result of course was lots of Conservative voters added to seats that otherwise wouldn't have gone that way.

  • G West

    3 years ago

    Saskatchewan - the rural problem

    Interesting.

    Some quick points to add about the 'wheat' province.

    Certainly the split is rural/urban now - and has been for some time. At least part of the reason is the depopulation of rural farming communities and the end of the family farm.

    The place where I grew up - and my brother still farms - had a township population of several thousands until the mid-1920s. With the Depression that population started to shrink and while there was a up-blip after the war, the overall provincial population kept shrinking for decades - but especially outside the cities.

    Towns that once had 500 - 600 people in them now have a couple of dozen. The schools have closed and the only farmers left, in most cases, are corporate giants...and they don't vote NDP.

    Even lately, much of the growth (virtually all of it in the cities) has been in-migration to places like Saskatoon and Regina.

    It's only in the last decade or so that the total provincial population is again reaching the levels of the first third of the 20th century.

    The families of many of the folks who built the CCF on the prairies are now living in British Columbia...and voting NDP here.

    Rural Saskatchewan, sadly, is a lonely, bitter and racist place....much of it.

    And, in terms of the Federal situation, the Diefenbaker effect can't be ignored. In the minds of a lot of Federal conservatives, it's still 1958 - fond memories.

    Generally, I find that most people who actually pay attention to politics and care about the principles involved do not change their votes - even over a lifetime. That's been especially true in rural Saskatchewan.

    In fact, I don’t really think it’s all that much different in the rest of the country. Most people vote the same ticket (often the same one their parents did) all their lives.

    Many elections are settled by the small percentage of swing voters who can’t seem to make up their minds….this election won’t be much different – my view.

    In fact, I think the swing voters are naïve to think what they do will make for a ‘positive’ or selfish gain for themselves. It won’t. The only gainers are, long term, the party insiders. I'll keep voting for the outsiders - realizing that only if they come to power federally will change actually happen.

    And of course, I'll keep working on the Liberals and Conservatives - without much hope of being very successful.

  • Budd Campbell

    3 years ago

    NDP PRESS TROUBLES

    The provincial NDP Govt's became grossly unpopular not because of what they did, but because of the media coverage they got.

    The got bad media coverage because the reporters hated them. Working level reporters got none of the information officer patronage posts, those all went to NDP and union staffers. So the reporters got even, and the rest is history.

    At the federal level the NDP gets a bad press, including the CBC, because it has no patronage to distribute in the first place.

    Reporters aren't stupid, you know.

  • ME2

    3 years ago

    Insightful, Budd

    That makes sense, Budd. I hope you pass that bit of useful info up to the hierarchy, Frank.

  • Frank

    3 years ago

    ME2

    Hierarchy?

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