Charting the Votes for Gary Lunn

[Editor's note: This is the first of a new feature on The Tyee through election day: Charting the Votes. In clearly presented charts and prose, veteran political analyst Will McMartin breaks down the important factors in key B.C. races.]

Centre-left parties have captured the riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands exactly twice over the past 18 federal general elections. The Liberal party did so once, in 1968, and the New Democratic Party scored its lone victory in 1988. Every other contest in the last half-century has gone to a centre-right party.

From the 1950s through to the 1980s, the Progressive Conservatives were predominant; more recently, over the last five general elections, the Reform party (twice), the Canadian Alliance (once) and the Conservatives (twice) have topped the polls.

Still, optimism reigns supreme on the centre-left, with each new election providing candidates and their parties the opportunity to hope -- and pundits and the news media to loudly proclaim -- that this time it will be different.

Gary Lunn, the incumbent MP, has won election four times over the last decade in Saanich-Gulf Islands. He triumphed as a Reform candidate in 1997, was re-elected representing the Canadian Alliance in 2000, and then won again as a Conservative in 2004 and 2006.

His margins of victory have been impressive: more than 6,500 votes in the first contest, 6,400 in the second, nearly 5,000 in the third, and almost 7,000* the last time out.

Moreover, as the chart above illustrates, Lunn's vote-getting has been within a fairly consistent band during his term in office, ranging between 22,000 and 25,400 ballots. The Tory appears to have a solid and substantial base of support in Saanich-Gulf Islands.

So, too, does the Liberal Party, as Grit candidates have consistently finished with between 17,000 and 19,000 votes in each of the last four federal general elections. That level of achievement, however, was sufficient only for runner-up status in 1997, 2000 and 2004; then, two years ago, the party slipped to third place.

NDP's resurgence in riding

The federal New Democratic Party did poorly in Saanich-Gulf Islands -- as it did elsewhere in B.C. through the 1990s -- so long as the provincial NDP was in power in Victoria. After unexpectedly taking the seat in 1988, the New Democrats fell to just 13,200 votes in 1993, slipped further to 8,000 in 1997, and finally collapsed to an abysmal 4,700 in 2000.

But in 2004 -- three years after the Clark-Dosanjh New Democrats were thrown out of office -- the party climbed to nearly 13,800 votes, and in 2006 jumped to a second-place finish with 17,400.

So, the Tories and Grits (each with a sizeable voter base) and the New Democrats (on an upward trajectory) had cause for optimism in Saanich-Gulf Islands in the early days of the current election campaign. Even the fledgling Greens -- who soared to nearly 10,700 votes in 2004 before dipping to a still-respectable 6,500 in 2006 -- could dream of a positive bounce and possible victory after their party head, Elizabeth May, was belatedly invited to participate in the televised leaders' debates.

Everything changed in the third week of the campaign when the NDP candidate, Julian West, admitted to past indiscretions and withdrew his candidacy.

The Dion dilution

Given that West's resignation occurred after candidate nominations had closed, and the New Democrats cannot replace him in the riding, the question now is, what will historic NDP supporters in Saanich-Gulf Islands do on Oct. 14?

Many, no doubt, will cast their ballots for one of the centre-left alternatives, the Liberals or the Greens. Some might vote for West, because his withdrawal occurred too late to remove his name from the ballot. A few, ignoring his party and respecting his service, could even back Lunn, their veteran MP, while others will opt to stay home on election day.

The options for New Democratic Party supporters in Saanich-Gulf Islands are many and numerous, but that has not stopped some Liberals -- and even a few pundits -- from concluding that West's departure paves the way for a certain Grit victory. More objective observers, however, might want to keep a couple of points in mind.

First, Liberal leader Stephane Dion's enduring low popularity in British Columbia (and elsewhere in Canada) is a manifest deterrent to the Grits winning-over voters from other parties. Indeed, public opinion polls strongly suggest that many traditional Liberal supporters are currently looking elsewhere because of disaffection with Dion.

In the same vein, a strong performance by May in the televised leaders' debate could well attract voters from other parties, and especially the New Democrats and Liberals, to the Greens.

Simply, it is not at all evident that West's resignation will cause NDP supporters in Saanich-Gulf Islands to move in sufficient numbers to enable the Liberals to surpass Lunn and the Conservatives.

Second, the chart above shows that when the New Democratic Party vote in Saanich-Gulf Islands hit rock-bottom in 1997 and 2000, Lunn still managed to rack-up sizeable victories over his Liberal rivals. Clearly, Lunn was able to win the riding with a negligible NDP vote in the past, and it is not clear that he cannot do so again in the current election -- especially with current public opinion polls showing the Tories with strong support in B.C.

That being said, there is no doubt that Saanich-Gulf Islands will be one of the most exciting contests to watch on election night. Maybe this time it really will be different.

*Corrected at 8:25 a.m., Sept. 29.

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