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Charting the Votes for Gary Lunn
Can Tory keep Saanich-Gulf Islands after New Dem quit?
Charting the Votes: Canada's Federal Election '08
- Charting the Votes for Gary Lunn
- Charting the Vote for Grits in BC
- Charting When NDP Votes Rise
- Charting the Votes where Tories are Strongest
- Charting the Vote for Incumbents
- Charting the Votes for Hedy Fry
- Charting the Votes of Visible Minority Members
- Charting May's Chances against MacKay
- Charting the Votes for a Rural Showdown
- Charting the Votes in Nanaimo-Cowichan
[Editor's note: This is the first of a new feature on The Tyee through election day: Charting the Votes. In clearly presented charts and prose, veteran political analyst Will McMartin breaks down the important factors in key B.C. races.]
Centre-left parties have captured the riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands exactly twice over the past 18 federal general elections. The Liberal party did so once, in 1968, and the New Democratic Party scored its lone victory in 1988. Every other contest in the last half-century has gone to a centre-right party.
From the 1950s through to the 1980s, the Progressive Conservatives were predominant; more recently, over the last five general elections, the Reform party (twice), the Canadian Alliance (once) and the Conservatives (twice) have topped the polls.
Still, optimism reigns supreme on the centre-left, with each new election providing candidates and their parties the opportunity to hope -- and pundits and the news media to loudly proclaim -- that this time it will be different.
Gary Lunn, the incumbent MP, has won election four times over the last decade in Saanich-Gulf Islands. He triumphed as a Reform candidate in 1997, was re-elected representing the Canadian Alliance in 2000, and then won again as a Conservative in 2004 and 2006.
His margins of victory have been impressive: more than 6,500 votes in the first contest, 6,400 in the second, nearly 5,000 in the third, and almost 7,000* the last time out.
Moreover, as the chart above illustrates, Lunn's vote-getting has been within a fairly consistent band during his term in office, ranging between 22,000 and 25,400 ballots. The Tory appears to have a solid and substantial base of support in Saanich-Gulf Islands.
So, too, does the Liberal Party, as Grit candidates have consistently finished with between 17,000 and 19,000 votes in each of the last four federal general elections. That level of achievement, however, was sufficient only for runner-up status in 1997, 2000 and 2004; then, two years ago, the party slipped to third place.
NDP's resurgence in riding
The federal New Democratic Party did poorly in Saanich-Gulf Islands -- as it did elsewhere in B.C. through the 1990s -- so long as the provincial NDP was in power in Victoria. After unexpectedly taking the seat in 1988, the New Democrats fell to just 13,200 votes in 1993, slipped further to 8,000 in 1997, and finally collapsed to an abysmal 4,700 in 2000.
But in 2004 -- three years after the Clark-Dosanjh New Democrats were thrown out of office -- the party climbed to nearly 13,800 votes, and in 2006 jumped to a second-place finish with 17,400.
So, the Tories and Grits (each with a sizeable voter base) and the New Democrats (on an upward trajectory) had cause for optimism in Saanich-Gulf Islands in the early days of the current election campaign. Even the fledgling Greens -- who soared to nearly 10,700 votes in 2004 before dipping to a still-respectable 6,500 in 2006 -- could dream of a positive bounce and possible victory after their party head, Elizabeth May, was belatedly invited to participate in the televised leaders' debates.
Everything changed in the third week of the campaign when the NDP candidate, Julian West, admitted to past indiscretions and withdrew his candidacy.
The Dion dilution
Given that West's resignation occurred after candidate nominations had closed, and the New Democrats cannot replace him in the riding, the question now is, what will historic NDP supporters in Saanich-Gulf Islands do on Oct. 14?
Many, no doubt, will cast their ballots for one of the centre-left alternatives, the Liberals or the Greens. Some might vote for West, because his withdrawal occurred too late to remove his name from the ballot. A few, ignoring his party and respecting his service, could even back Lunn, their veteran MP, while others will opt to stay home on election day.
The options for New Democratic Party supporters in Saanich-Gulf Islands are many and numerous, but that has not stopped some Liberals -- and even a few pundits -- from concluding that West's departure paves the way for a certain Grit victory. More objective observers, however, might want to keep a couple of points in mind.
First, Liberal leader Stephane Dion's enduring low popularity in British Columbia (and elsewhere in Canada) is a manifest deterrent to the Grits winning-over voters from other parties. Indeed, public opinion polls strongly suggest that many traditional Liberal supporters are currently looking elsewhere because of disaffection with Dion.
In the same vein, a strong performance by May in the televised leaders' debate could well attract voters from other parties, and especially the New Democrats and Liberals, to the Greens.
Simply, it is not at all evident that West's resignation will cause NDP supporters in Saanich-Gulf Islands to move in sufficient numbers to enable the Liberals to surpass Lunn and the Conservatives.
Second, the chart above shows that when the New Democratic Party vote in Saanich-Gulf Islands hit rock-bottom in 1997 and 2000, Lunn still managed to rack-up sizeable victories over his Liberal rivals. Clearly, Lunn was able to win the riding with a negligible NDP vote in the past, and it is not clear that he cannot do so again in the current election -- especially with current public opinion polls showing the Tories with strong support in B.C.
That being said, there is no doubt that Saanich-Gulf Islands will be one of the most exciting contests to watch on election night. Maybe this time it really will be different.
*Corrected at 8:25 a.m., Sept. 29.
Related Tyee stories:
- Conservation Voters defend Liberal choice to beat Lunn
- Tory Resources Minister Battles Three Shades of Green
Trio of opponents may split vote against Conservative Gary Lunn. - Harper's Fearless 'Dirty Gary'
MP Gary Lunn is pro-nukes, oil sands, mega-tankers -- and his riding is one of BC's greenest.





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G West
3 years ago
For NDP voters, this seems highly unlikely
A few, ignoring his party and respecting his service, could even back Lunn, their veteran MP, while others will opt to stay home on election day.
Even many conservatives in the riding, the ones I've talked to, are highly unimpressed with Lunn's record as a minister.
There is a cache of former Albertans - particularly in the northern part of the Saanich Peninsula and especially in locales like Dean Park and Deep Cove - who would vote for a conservative - even an incompetent like Lunn - come hell or high water.
Traditional NDP voters would, and may, stay home - they will NEVER vote for the clown.
ZoeBlunt
3 years ago
The other candidate
Great graph, but the analysis is missing someone. I'll bet that Briony Penn is poised to scoop up the NDP voters - and possibly many of the Green Party voters - along with Liberals. She could actually beat Lunn. Why? She is incredibly well-known in the region, she is a former Green, she is articulate and well-liked, and her environmental policy record is outstanding. Meanwhile, grassroots groups are highlighting Lunn's dismal record on the tanker moratorium and other issues. A shift toward strategic voting to defeat Lunn would likely sweep her into office.
The brain
3 years ago
I'll echo ZoeBlunt's statement!
Ditto to what you said, Zoe.
Like I said on a previous post, there are four things to consider here and they are all integrated.
- leader
- brand
- candidates
- record
Its pretty hard to speak of a riding without mentioning who's running there. Briony is highly educated and outgoing. Her profile is by far and away the best of them all.
See for yourselves:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/riding/294/candidate.html
Lunn's record is dismal as a cabinet minister. His firing of Linda Keen at midnight before she was to testify at a hearing over the Chalk River shutdown didn't pass the smell test. Nor did his denial of responsibility over his lie about not hearing about isotope shortages sooner. Folks... c'mon... Lunn did know and if he didn't know, he was supposed to know and that makes him incompetant.
And then there is his treating shareholders with taxpayers dollars over JDS Uniphase shares with share holders in his riding. Y'all forget about that one? Some didn't. All that dirt will give Gary that dirt nap in politics he deserves.
The only hope Gary Lunn has, is the fact that the riding is one of the four oldest. Its full of seniors. Hard to say how all that "lets lock up 14 year olds for life" tough on crime Republican babble will play but there is this.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/riding/294/06results.html
Lunn got 37% of the vote last time out. Its not enough. Brionny is a strong candidate and did anyone watch CPAC? She's hip too! And Gary Lunn with those two female protesters... Lunn is done, folks. Libs pick this one up with close to 50% of the vote. ;-)
G West
3 years ago
Ney Lorne
I think you're right - Lunn is probably going to lose - as long as the turnout is high.
If it's not - in other words if the NDP vote falls off (the party's organizers are moving into other ridings after all) then Penn will have a tough time winning.
Also, she claims to be 'close' to Dion and that's not a positive in this district.
I think the Liberals in BC are in for a major drubbing - the question just is - who will deliver it....
G West
3 years ago
that's meant to be
Hey Lorne-
it's early, sorry~
crh
3 years ago
this NDP'er
would have to hold my nose to vote Liberal. Their track record shows that they are more centre-right. They seemed to be the do-nothing party for the citizens of Canada. I have listened to Briony on several occasions, and I think she stumbles all over herself when speaking. Seems to have trouble getting the message out. I do agree that the NDP vote will not go to the Cons. No way, not ever. On the Green front, I simply cannot afford the 24 cent a litre proposed gas tax. My only choice is stay home or still mark my x for NDP.
Budd Campbell
3 years ago
The need to punish cowardly and dishonest aggression
Thanks to Will Martin for an excellent article, well researched and logical. Its conclusion that Lunn still has an upper hand may be annoying to some, but given the nature of what's happened in this race people need to be realistic.
For NDP supporters in Saanich-Gulf Islands there is only one issue, the need to punish cowardly and dishonest aggression.
There is no question as to which party dragged up the 1996 nude swimming story. Neither is there any doubt which party carefully arranged for some late breaking enhancements to that story. That party has publicly identified itself by its cheeky celebration of the idea that it will benefit from West's demise.
If the story told by West's accusers were even a rought approximation of the truth, why would they have waited a full seventeen (17) months after West got the NDP's nomination, wait to the very day that official nominations were about to close before finally "breaking their silence", and "coming forward"? Clearly, it's just all politics, all the time.
Only complete suckers for silly-bugger McDworkinite psycho-babble would voluntarily swallow this transparent scam. That's not to say there aren't academics at SFU who still haven't apologized for backing Rachel Marsden and publicly demanding Liam Donnelly's firing and the total destruction of his career even after it had been proven Marsden's story was complete and quite intentional fraud. There are arrogant, irresponsible and dishonest people like that, even among tenured professors. One can only hope that they are a small and weak minority in any group, including voters in Saanich-Gulf Islands.
NDP supporters in that electoral district have four valid options in declining order of appeal:
1. Vote for Julian West, NDP, no matter what.
2. Vote for Andrew Lewis, an honest Green.
3. Vote for Gary Lunn as the most violent weapon available with which to assualt the aggressor in retaliation for their unprecedented machinations.
4. Stay home.
There are no circumstances whatsoever in which an NDP supporter should even consider supporting the Liberal candidate. To do so would do nothing to help the environment. It would simply serve to reward political aggression.
G West
3 years ago
That's a valid argument Budd
Taking a principled stand is certainly an option - therefore stay home.
Voting for Lunn seems to me every bit as bad - if not worse - than voting for Penn and I only suggested that traditional NDP voters do it with their nostrils plugged...
In a case where two bad choices seem to be the only ones available I don't think there's a 'right' option available.
I certainly agree that the 'political' management here smells to high heaven and harkens back to the bad old days of the spiderman and his crew...
But there's no way Bornmann, Marrisen and Co are any worse than Lunn and his lackeys.
Maybe this is a case where a write in of a few thousand 'none of the above' would get the better message across.
Budd Campbell
3 years ago
Hate to Disagree, West, but you're not seeing the real issue.
G West, you're just not seeing the real issue here. It has nothing at all, nothing whatsoever to do with the environment.
It has to do with good government and the soundness of the political process, in particular the role of commercial mass media who will agree to be gamed by cynical spin doctors working for parties approved of by their owners and major advertisers, and the kinds of parties that will employ the most aggressive and unscrupulous strategists.
Voting for Lunn, who represents a business oriented party that has cut corporate taxes from 22% to 15%, for no apparent reason other than to curry favour with business at the expense of workers and consumers, would be a less than palatable option, to put the matter as kindly as possible.
It would, however, have one solitary merit. It would directly and very conspicuously punish the very party that is trying to steal this election by underhanded means.
Voting for Penn is truly unconscionable, an option which no one should consider for even a split second. Her supposed fine stands on environmental issues are no longer of any consequence at all in this election and cannot be used to argue in her favour.
Suppose that a distinguished legal scholar were running, someone with great ideas on how to reform the justice system. And suppose their party used dirty tricks to advance that candidacy. Would you think it preferable to vote for this supposed scholar, instead of someone whose opinions you found irresponsible and backward, but who had at least played the electoral game by the rules? That's how Lunn comes in as a better option than staying at home, and a far better option than Penn, who is simply off the meter.
Rewarding aggression is the most expensive luxury there is because of its dangerous, long-term consequences, and there's no way New Democrats or anyone else who genuinely care for the future of this country should do that.
BrianWhite
3 years ago
vote NDP in Saanich, less chance of ndp in minority government!
I am sure the Lunn campaign would have dragged up the past (on the last day if necessary) if West had a lead on lunn (or was fairly close to Lunn in second place).
So he NEVER stood a chance of winning a seat. He and the NDP made a mistake in him being nominated.
He would have made a great backroom guy because he is very smart.
Any chance of a political career as an MP was destroyed years ago. OK?
On the last day, if keith martin is the leading challenger to the conservative in my riding, I will hold my nose and vote for him. I do not want to because he wants to continue pumping fertilizer (sewage) into the sea and I hate the practice.
But if he is the leading challenger, I will do it.
Basically this time round there is conservative and there is everything else.
You vote NDP in saanich gulf islands, and you reduce the chance of the NDP participating in a minority government.
You really want to help the conservatives?
You might as well just vote for Lunn.
G West
3 years ago
The environment
Who said anything about the environment - all I know is Lunn isn't good for the country?
I'm suggesting that it IS an option to vote against Lunn - you're suggesting it's an option to vote FOR him.
As I wrote above, I think they're both BAD choices but one less member for Harper is a marginally better outcome.
I'd hold my nose and vote for a Liberal for the first time in my life - and hope it's not a mortal sin.
Luke Skywalker
3 years ago
SGI
During the 2006 election, the Cons dumped their candidate in BC Southern Interior and the Liberals dumped their candidate in Abbotsford.
As in SGI, both continued to have their names on the ballots in 2006 yet they received 19.3% and 12.7% respectively on election day.
Since the NDP received 26.6% in SGI during 2006, I'd expect the NDP to receive ~15% in 2008 with the other ~11.6% dispersing between the Liberals and Greens.
More importantly, the overall provincial trends will dictate the winner of SGI.
The Cons seem to be 3% - 5% ahead of their 2006 BC totals, the NDP down 4% - 5% and the Liberals down 6% - 7%. A final poll by Mustel in the last week of the campaign will put that to rest.
SGI prediction: Con hold.
Budd Campbell
3 years ago
I count it differently
Sure it's an option to vote against, or at least not for Lunn.
It's not an option to vote for someone whose party has deliberately attempted to succeed by unprovoked and dishonourable aggression, that has been aided by a compliant media who see this episode, along with the two in Vancouver, as an opportunity to skewer the NDP and Layton ("poor vetting"). There's some truth to that charge, the vetting wasn't fully adequate, but how does any party vet candidates against material they don't have?
When a candidate tells you their version of a past episode, and it's judged to be not so bad as to disqualify them, and they are in the public domain as your candidate for 17 months before "alternative" versions are suddenly offered up in cleverly lawyered press releases, a reasonable person is not going to have any real doubt as to what is going on or who is the intended beneficiary.
If you want to encourage and endorse and reward that kind of conduct, vote Liberal in Saanich-Gulf Islands. If you don't want to reward that kind of aggression, do not vote for Briony Penn, no matter what. Do anything else but.
Frank
3 years ago
NDP numbers
The NDP candidate problems has cost them about 5% in the polls in BC. The benefactor has been the Cons. The Liberals can't even gain with their usual dirty campaigns.
Budd Campbell
3 years ago
Who said 5%
Frank:
The NDP candidate problems has cost them about 5% in the polls in BC.
What's the source for this 5% estimate?
Frank
3 years ago
Budd
I saw it in the Star, 8th paragraph.
http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/507990
North of Hope
3 years ago
Questions?
Budd Campbell, you make some interesting points about West's candidacy. If he ran for the Greens in past elections, why did this issue not come up then and who organized the environmental field trip?
Budd Campbell
3 years ago
North of Hope: Good Question
A good question for which I don't have the insider's answer, only the outsider's answer. The stakes got higher this time, so the going got rougher.
This episode was used against West for several years within the Green Party, not because anyone really cared about the episode or about West himself. He was just collateral damage. The game was to get rid of the then leader, Stuart Parker, and since West was associated with Parker, talking about West's inappropriate moment was a way of embarassing Parker.
Budd Campbell
3 years ago
Thanks Frank
I hadn't seen that piece. It looks like the Liberals managed to harm the NDP, without helping themselves. But then, there whole strategy long term is to give the Conservatives a boost if need be to keep the NDP in check.
DPL
3 years ago
Lunn, the plumber will be looking for a job
In my view with a number of folks living in the riding, and all solid NDP members, they will not vote Green and not even consider the clown now holding down the seat. I'm pretty sure Dr. Briony will be getting their votes. Her major concerns affect the locals quite a lot. Being endorsed, along with Denise Savoie( NDP, Victoria)by the enviroment groups will certianly convince folks which way to go. Both women should be the Mp's after Oct. 14
Budd Campbell
3 years ago
I'm pretty sure Dr. Briony will be getting their votes
DPL, I am sure that Briony, Brad Zubyk and Mark Marissen share your feelings.
I don't.
crh
3 years ago
SGI could make history
by all voting for a yet-to-named NDP MP. Imagine the papers and radio stations if we're able to pull it off....Elections canada said the vote will count if marked by your x.
carfreed
3 years ago
lunn
Lunn will lose by a few votes or more to Briony Penn.Greens will shift at last minute and many NDP are supporting her.
She is infectious!
frank2
3 years ago
Lunn must go
It is essential that Lunn be rusticated. Any vote which doesn't fulfil that is wasted. The implication is obvious (even if it means Greens and NDPers holding their noses).
RickW
3 years ago
No-Neck Lunn Must Go!
As much as I dislike the Liberals, I feel I must vote the Briony ticket this time around, if only just to get rid of Lunn. He's got enough time in, and his "pension" (I use the word lightly) will be substantial. And maybe, just maybe, we'll get someone in Briony who will do something constructive.
vegguy
3 years ago
Hope springs eternal
The greatest contribution that the NDP may make to this federal election, albeit unintentional, might be the withdrawal of Julian West. The riding is increasing green minded and sensitive to the environment. Lunn is still a reformer and it is only in his ministerial tenure that he has demonstrated his disdain for the environment and his Harper worshiper stance , firmly in favour of offshore drilling, ignoring the environmental travesty's of the oil patch,advocating for increased nuclear power and cutting the DNR funding for urban trees to nothing. Bought & paid for by big oil, he will lose support in this riding this election.
Brionny Penn, the Liberal candidate is well known as an environmental advocate. She saw Dion's offer as best opportunity, but she could have moved a little bit right and received the Green nomination or a little bit left and received the NDP nod. All three would have happily had her as a candidate. She's not a great fit as a Liberal but she is a great fit for this riding and if she wins, she'll be in Ottawa representing the environment. One hopes that Liberals, NDPs and Greens (Sorry Andrew) will swing behind Brionny and defeat Gary Lunn. That would be a gift to the planet.
G West
3 years ago
Oh really!
The riding is increasing green minded and sensitive to the environment.
The graph McMartin provides doesn't seem to reflect that.
politico
3 years ago
Shun Lunn
This article fails to mention the campaigns in the riding that have included the green party pushing their candidate to stand down and the Shun Lunn movement.
It also fails to give any weight to the fact that many of the voters in S-GI are completely disillusioned with the Harper/Lunn agenda on:
1) A Nuclear Powered Tar Sands
2) Tanker Traffic Moratorium
3) Nuclear Waste Management
Not to mention the Isotopo Insanity and the Linda Keen affair.
Quite frankly the tables have turned considerably in favour of defeating Lunn and, regardless of the charts and national campaign trends, LUNN IS DONE!
A big reason why is because in S-GI a Penn victory is less a Liberal Victory than it is a Conservative defeat.
It will deliver a blow directly to the heart of Harper's Cabinet. It will discredit his environmental and energy agenda and it will prove they are not as infallible as the mainstream will have you believe.
The only wild card is how well the green candidate will and if he can split the vote enough for Gary to squeek in another victory. But if he continues on his trend of losing half of his support in between elections then there is no hope for a green resurgence and the potential for the vote split is diminished.
Visit: http://members.shaw.ca/shunlunn/
orhttp://members.shaw.ca/shunlunn/blunders.htm
Or just Google Shunlunn for details
asher
3 years ago
the instution vs the individual
I think the following from Chomsky hits the nail on the head and explains why some New Democrats would not vote for Brionny Penn as a Liberal...
"You want to distinguish between the institution and the individual. So slavery, for example, is inherently monstrous but the individuals participating in this institution may be the nicest guys you can imagine: benevolent, friendly, nice to their children, even nice to their slaves, caring about other people. But in their instiutional roles they are monsters because the institution is monstrous."
It doesn't matter if Penn is a nice person, the Liberal Party is a monstrous institution when it comes to social issues.
For example, how about Chretein's promise to "do the heavy lifting" in Afghanistan? Brionny Penn is going to vote to continue to send young men and women from her country to their deaths in Afghanistan, instead of bringing them home now, because she is now a servant of the war machine monster. Oil soaked beaches pale in comparison to blood soaked fields.
Budd Campbell
3 years ago
WHAT'S MORE IMPORTANT - ENVIRONMENT OR POLITICAL ETHICS?
What's more important? Voting for someone with intellectual expertise in the environmental field, such as Penn? Or making sure that a minimum standard of political ethics is maintained.
Everyone knows that the West story was dead until the Liberals revived it. Only a political innocent would believe they didn't arrange for the added material that appeared the day before official nominations closed. And the fact that Penn has said she sympathizes with West (why would she sympathize with him if she honestly believed his accusers were telling the truth?) and instead put all blame on Layton, clearly a bit of additional partisan bootstrapping.
If people want to reward dirty politics, they know very well who to vote for. carfreed, frank1, RickW, and vegguy keep pushing the pitch that Penn is some kind of environmental hero who must be supported, no matter what. Do ethics count for nothing with you people?
I sincerely hope Penn places fourth. She's earned it.
grumpy dog
3 years ago
Liberal Dirty Tricks tar Penn, sad but true
There is a lot of wishful thinking in these comments. Penn supporters somehow thinking voters won't see through the Liberal drive-by smear.
Penn is getting in deeper with an organization that wouldn't know ethics if they were bit by them on the behind. Unfortunate but true.
Green and NDP insiders know the truth. Lobbyists Marrisen, Zubyk set this up. The truth is coming out and Penn is the "deer in the headlights".
G West
3 years ago
You've convinced me Budd
Penn should disavow her Liberal handlers and run as an independent...it's the moral thing to do.
And it has nothing to do with the environment.
But don't hold your breath....
politico
3 years ago
Huh?
I am as amused with Penn's new found sympathy for West as the next guy, but you have to admit that the culprit who brought West down on the eve of the deadline is more a New Democrat insider than a Liberal one.
Let's look at Zubyk's track record:
1) Managed Corky's Leadership Bid
2) Managed Rob Flemming's Affairs
3) Managed Gregor Roberston's Bid for Mayor
4) Managged Rick Kasper's last campaign
Former Title
1) Communications Director NDP Caucus
SOooooooo
To suggest the "Liberal insiders" are undertaking some unethical smear campaign is thin gruel.
Tis typical NDP insider malfeasance methinks.
Budd Campbell
3 years ago
politico, you have a point. Up to a point.
NDP strategists have always been distressed by Zubyk's decision to work for the Liberals on federal campaigns.
But in past elections there were never episode like the recent machinations in Saanich, which for all I know went well beyond anything Zubyk had in mind and may well have involved some green operatives arranging for certain colourful things to appear.
I would be very surprised if Zubyk ever works on any BC NDP campaign or other peacetime activity again after this. As long as he is attached to Robertson, Ladner's chances of winning in November are increased. Unless he can prove he had nothing to do with the West affair, Zubyk is going to have to dedicate himself to the Liberal party alone.
lynn
3 years ago
Well said, asher.
Well said, asher.
rouge+chartreuse
3 years ago
West should have never been a candidate
The only one who did in Julian West is Julian West by exposing his erection to children. The NDP dropped the ball by not vetting the candidate. There is no political party in the world that would not have used this information on an opposing candidate if they had it, including the NDP. Anyone who is howling about underhanded politics here is being naive at best.
And for those claiming foul, you are still pretending, as West did, that this was some minor trumped up skinny-dipping incident. It was not, it was sexual harassment and it was a very serious error on his part. Enough of an error that any political party that choose him as their candidate was setting themselves up for trouble eventually. And West is lucky he didn't get charged.
Say West had magically won the election, - even though everyone knows that the best he could do was to further split the vote - but let's just say he had won. Do the howlers think that West's past wouldn't have been used against him by some future political opponent?
NDP partisans in SG-I who will refuse to cast a vote for Penn to get Lunn fired are doing damage to the riding by ensuring that Lunn will win again. Doing this out of some sense of aggrieved ethics is just silly. I hope they enjoy the view of oil tankers sailing through the Gulf Islands, bringing tar sands oil to Asia, all brought to you by the Honourable Gary Lunn.
I won't enjoy casting a vote for the Liberal Party, the party that I have seriously disagreed with for decades. But Briony Penn would be a good fit for the riding, and I would really enjoy it if on election night, that vote were to deny Gary Lunn his job and also prevent one more riding from adding to a Stephen Harper majority government.
G West
3 years ago
rouge+chartreuse
I tend to agree with you in general - as you'll have seen above.
However, not to put too fine a point on it, the actions of the Liberals (and especially Zubyk's crowing and preening about it) have a distinctly sour odour and stage managed air about them - the kind of odour that has infected federal Liberal politics in BC for years - going back to David Anderson and his acolytes.
Zubyk has certainly found his fit and, while I'd be happy to see the back of Lunn, putting a positive spin on the story is difficult.
This is just the same old sleazy Liberal politics - practiced by a new bunch of operatives. The Basi boyZ being out of commission, someone had to take over.
seth
3 years ago
strategy
Checking out www.voteforenvironment.ca I find they are recommending liberal party candidate Briony Penn. Check out your riding and find where the anybody but Harper people should put their vote. Let's hope the site goes viral.
emmryss
3 years ago
wrong riding
The only trouble with Mr McMartin's analysis is that Saanich-Gulf Islands wasn't Saanich-Gulf Islands for all of the past 18 elections. Here on Salt Spring we used to be part of Malahat-The Islands. That's when we elected an NDP MP -- a really good one, by the way, Jim Manly.
Mooney
3 years ago
Briony
This NDPer will be voting Briony. I think she's the best choice, for all the reasons stated above. Also, I don't think Dion is quite the Yankee doodle suck up, that Mulrooney's protoge Stephen Harper is.
"Anything But Conservative" here.
off-the-radar
3 years ago
ABC
Anybody but Conservative.
I'll be voting for Briony Penn and I have never voted Liberal (or Conservative) in my life. She is a good fit for the riding.
Julian West should never have run as a candidate. His actions were completely inappropriate and were way beyond "skinny dipping" as the two young women testified on the record. Yes, we all make mistakes and learn and grow and move on but his mistake precludes him from public office.
As for the back room machniations? I don't really care. I am voting strategically.
A Harper majority government would be disastrous for Canada.
Like Danny Williams said---ABC.
Hopefully many other smart, caring, thoughtful Canadians agree and we'll have a fighting chance to get through the next decade as an intact society and not sold down the river in a vain attempt to prop up a collapsing American empire.
Budd Campbell
3 years ago
No one can believe this
rouge + chartreuse:
The only one who did in Julian West is Julian West by exposing his erection to children.
off-the-radar
Julian West should never have run as a candidate. His actions were completely inappropriate and were way beyond "skinny dipping" as the two young women testified on the record.
I think both of you know very well that these are, at best, unproved allegations. And it's an intentional falsehood to use the word "testified". No one testified to anything. Rather, two people of completely unknown reliability signed a carefully lawyered, professionally drafted press release claiming to be outraged victims. They took this action 17 months after West was nominated by his party and started to publicly campaign, but just hours before official nominations closed. The sincerity level couldn't possibly be more obvious, and in any other context wouldn't pass either the laugh or smell tests.
It was falsely stated in some news reports that these allegations were mailed to Jack Layton the week before. In fact it went on Sunday Sept 21st. One of the two press release signatories then gave an additional quote to the press questioning Laytons' committment to women's rights because he hadn't yet replied to her, carefully echoing Briony Penn's Liberal media talking points.
No one can believe this, including the posters who say they take it at face value. It's just all politics, all the time, and they know it. In fact, it's the phoniest scam since Rachel Marsden's days at SFU.
G West
3 years ago
Budd
Thanks for that. You've convinced me.
As you can see from the above, I think you're absolutely correct - this was a typical Liberal smear campaign - engineered from the beginning to achieve the desired result...
Even if Briony Penn wasn't complicit in this sleaze campaign, she certainly appears to be so.
Perhaps that's why her public appearances in recent days seem to be so ineffectual and tongue tied.
We disagree on lots of things - not this one.
It's hard to sleep with the pigs and not get dirty.
Lunn's better gone - but the smell that comes along with Penn as an MP will be same that emanated from David Emerson during the last Parliament.
rouge+chartreuse
3 years ago
It's interesting that those
It's interesting that those who are accusing the girls of being Liberal agents and questioning their story, accusing them of making unsubstantiated allegations are then willing to go ahead in the next breath and make unsubstantiated allegations as to Ms. Penn's involvement in the worst kind of political smear. It's interesting how eager partisans of all stripes can so easily justify whatever means are necessary to push their candidates.
So some people are willing to stand up and accuse 12 young women of publicly accusing someone of sexual harassment, even though nothing occurred, only to help a Liberal campaign that has a slim hope of winning at best? And I guess if there was no truth to it, Mr. West just decided he would leave those allegations unanswered and withdraw quietly from the race? And even though they have damaged his reputation with their false allegations, West won't sue these 12 women for libel?
If the allegations are fiction, then why doesn't West speak up for himself?
The rabble/babble NDP partisan discussion forum was all over this issue several days ago, with a few of the more rabid partisans clinging to the idea that West did nothing more than skinny dipping. By the end of the detailed discussions most came to the conclusion that there is little chance this wasn't a credible story.
http://tinyurl.com/babble-discussion
Look, NDP partisans, your party f--ed up and nominated an oddball. A few Liberals, Conservatives or maybe even Greens, may have pushed it for political gain, as any partisan would have done in a similar situation, but that is no reason to go off the deep end and accuse 12 women of engineering a massive conspiracy on behalf of the Liberal party.
All that's being lost in this airing of partisan grudges is that the Honourable Gary Lunn is more able to once again split the vote in Saanich Gulf-Islands and claim another riding towards his master Steve's glorious majority.
The brain
3 years ago
I concur, rouge+chartreuse
Shouldn't have to echo why, you've nailed it nicely
G West
3 years ago
Ummm
And what about the Liberal failure to vet their candidate in Winnipeg for her anti-Jewish sentiments about 9/11? Who’s going to win that riding now?
I think I'd be a little careful where one treads when it comes to vetting - I could cite several other examples… and from ‘every’ side of the street – including the Green.
I think I was the very first person here at Tyee who said that West should pull out - you can check that out in the archives.
However, to pretend that Zubyk and Penn (there's no way she didn't know what was going on) are innocent in this little soap opera is nonsense.
There are no moral absolutes in politics and lot of lying, cheating and plagiarizing.
Those who think it's okay to ignore that kind of thing, no matter who's doing it, are the ones with the problem - in my view.
I wouldn't have voted for Penn as the best candidate even if West had withdrawn immediately - it would only have been as an effort to defeat Lunn. Given the tactics and the excuses made since then, you guys aren't making it any easier. And besides, as the record shows, there isn't a lot of difference (once enshrined on Sussex Drive) between pee wee and 'his' personal party and whomever is the current Liberal flavour of the week.
Frank
3 years ago
rouge
So let's say I saw someone abuse a kid 12 years ago. Then they get nominated as a Liberal in the riding, but I wait 17 months until the day after nominations close to speak up and say what I saw.
What West did was wrong and he never should have been a candidate but I can't see how anyone doesn't see the usual Liberal politics in this.
Budd Campbell
3 years ago
Babble? It's revealing you would point there rouge + chartreuse
So some people are willing to stand up and accuse 12 young women of publicly accusing someone of sexual harassment, even though nothing occurred, ...
False. Twelve (12) people did not say any such thing, as you well know rouge.
Two (2) people signed a carefully lawyered, professionally drafted press release, not an affadavit. A third person apparently spoke to the media. In most cases the reporters never met any of the three in person. All contact was phone, fax or Email.
In the case of one Vancouver Island paper, the quotes from one of these three people were inserted into the story after it left the reporter's desk, even though the reporter's byline stayed on the entire, expanded text.
... And I guess if there was no truth to it, Mr. West just decided he would leave those allegations unanswered and withdraw quietly from the race? And even though they have damaged his reputation with their false allegations, West won't sue these 12 women for libel?
You're right, rouge. There is damage to West's reputation that will undoubtedly affect his career as a mathematics instructor, just as you Liberals intended. I pointed this out to one of the reporters for the major media, and he just brushed it off, saying if the guy has been teaching for years and his employer has no problem with him, he can just keep on teaching as though nothing had happened. There was no acknowledgement whatsoever that stories like these would make it very awkward to appear in class, with an audience in their teens and twenties snickering and making snide remarks, and with students who are feminists refusing to take his classes, or taking his classes and then laying complaints in the hope of obtaining financial or other rewards.
The rabble/babble NDP partisan discussion forum was all over this issue several days ago, with a few of the more rabid partisans clinging to the idea that West did nothing more than skinny dipping. By the end of the detailed discussions most came to the conclusion that there is little chance this wasn't a credible story.
http://tinyurl.com/babble-discussion
LOL. Babble is NOT an NDP discussion board. The policy of babble is officially non-partisan, which is a total joke. It's largest source of funds is Liberal Buzz Hargrove, and its real stance is one of relentlessly baiting the NDP from both the communist left and the power-hungry Liberal "centre". Watching the head moderator Michelle savagely scolding the NDP while claiming to be a supporter is one of the funniest schticks around.
It's revealing that you would point to babble, rouge. Very revealing. Obviously you know it's a Liberal bucket-shop.
Budd Campbell
3 years ago
IF he did it, Frank. IF he did it.
What West did was wrong and he never should have been a candidate but I can't see how anyone doesn't see the usual Liberal politics in this.
Frank, under what circumstances are unproven allegations facts? Because any two people say so? Or just any two women? Joe McCarthy never had a problem getting two or three witnesses to tell him what he wanted to hear.
If West did what was described in the professionally drafted, skillfully lawyered press release, it would in most people's minds qualify as quite revolting conduct. If he did it.
But whether or not it would be an offence under the law isn't clear. The lawyers who vetted the press release were very, very careful in their choice of words. They did not allege any illegality, only conduct that was "grossly inappropriate" and "of a sexual nature". Notice that the key word here is "innappropriate", the same word the RCMP used 12 years earlier.
The modus operandi of the professionally drafted press release was to take an old story and cosmetically ramp it up so the commercial media could destroy West's candidacy, and then lay blame on the NDP for inadequate vetting. They did this by using accelerated adjectives such as "grossly" and "sexual" and by adding the word "erection".
The outraged victims were not able to agree from one news item to the next whether or not it was a "partial" erection (Frank, ... tell me, ... in your own personal experience, what the Hell is a partial erection?) or a full erection. But they were sure there was an erection.
And Frank, if you were in West's position, how would you go about proving that you did not have an erection 12 years ago? Any thoughts on that one?
Frank
3 years ago
Budd
"And Frank, if you were in West's position, how would you go about proving that you did not have an erection 12 years ago? Any thoughts on that one?"
No idea at all. But regardless of whether West was innocent, guilty, erect or whatever, its said that the the Greens had already promised the "girls involved" not to run him as a candidate. The NDP should have been told by someone who knew about this (Greens? people involved?) after he had been nominated 17 months earlier.
So my point is that from here, I can't comment on West's actions, I wasn't there,, I can only comment on how he was brought down the day after nominations closed.
rouge+chartreuse
3 years ago
Hey Budd
I clearly don't spend a lot of time here, so I didn't know I was debating with someone who is prone to ranting about completely baseless accusations. Your manner of argumentation undermines any points you might make.
I'm not a Liberal, as you assert. As I said in my earlier post I've never voted for them before, but I will this time to unseat Lunn. I've voted NDP and twice Green both federally and provincially for over 30 years. I was prepared to vote for West before this came up, even though I knew that the vote would be split. Now I believe there is a chance Lunn could be fired.
I don't post on Babble, but I read it a lot. Your conspiracy theory about it being a Liberal operation is quite laughable. Maybe I should join just so I can alert them to your accusations. I'm sure some of the Babblers who speak openly about their NDP party positions and affiliations would be rather amused.
Look, if West has been unjustly tarred by this massive conspiracy you are asserting, then he should be suing a lot of people for libel.
12 women according to this story:http://tinyurl.com/julian-west-story
Blame the victim seems to be typical of those who have worked against the rights of women in the past. It's sad to see it come from someone who claims to support a progressive party.
rouge+chartreuse
3 years ago
. . . and Budd
based on your manner of flinging conspiratorial accusations about, how are we to know you secretly aren't an operative for the Conservatives, convincing people to not vote for the only chance to kick Lunn out of his Parliament seat?
Budd Campbell
3 years ago
rouge: your link leads nowhere
rouge:
Your link doesn't work.
There were NOT twelve (12) women who made statements. Two (2) signed a press release, and another was quoted in some stories. Those stories made reference to a group of 12 people, aged 14 to 17 in 1996, but 12 people have not made statements, only two in writing and a third orally.
rouge+chartreuse
3 years ago
Budd,
I didn't leave a space before the URL last time: http://tinyurl.com/julian-west-story
The story indicates that the 2 women were willing to publicly speak for the group of 12.
Again, if the allegations are a slanderous conspiracy, as you assert, why isn't West suing them for libel, instead of resigning?
Meanwhile, the Honourable Gary Lunn appreciates your help in my riding.
Budd Campbell
3 years ago
rouge+chartreuse: Who did this reporter talk to???
I saw that story last week.
It makes reference to 12 people. But that's a claim made by 2 people. There's a difference, and any reasonable person know's that. In any other context, it would be clear that 2 people claiming to speak for 10 others are padding their argument for political purposes, nothing more.
Unfortunately, people who have become used to accepting a certain brand of psycho-babble will swallow this kind of thing, and be upset if anyone else calls BS. It would be interesting to see their reactions if this kind of thing were pulled on them.
Perhaps you could communicate with the reporter who prepared this story and ask her if she actually spoke to any of these supposed 12 people? Or would that run the risk of undermining your whole story line?
rouge+chartreuse
3 years ago
OK Budd,
I'll admit that I don't *know* whether the reporter spoke with more than 2 or 3 people. I assumed that normal journalistic ethics might apply, especially in the face of a publication's legal liabilities. But I'll grant you that minor point.
My "whole story line" doesn't rely on that detail. On the other hand your whole story line precisely relies on your unsupported-by-fact intuition that this whole issue is no more than some kind of Liberal slime job. It's really only a vague conspiracy theory. I suppose they paid the RCMP to investigate it 1996 too?
You can call BS all you like, but it doesn't mean anything if you are just making things up based on your partisan stance. And you are willing to slime Briony Penn with this as well, simply because she chose to run for the Liberals rather than another party that you might find more acceptable. Where is your supporting evidence?
And why don't you give that evidence to Julian West so he can sue these young women for what, according to you, is obvious libel? If your imaginings are true then that's what he should be doing, no?
And why are you attempting to dissuade people in my riding who for once have the chance to vote for a real human being that has a chance to beat out one of Harper's army of soulless right-wingers? Based on nothing more than your brand of innuendo.
You are doing exactly than what you accuse the Liberals of doing. Truthfully, if the tables were reversed and you had some kind of smearable info on Penn or even Lewis that you could use, you would indulge in exactly the kind of smear job that you accuse the Liberals of, wouldn't you?