Charting the Vote for Incumbents
Four or five will lose their jobs, if this election is true to form.
Charting the Votes: Canada's Federal Election '08
- Charting the Votes for Gary Lunn
- Charting the Vote for Grits in BC
- Charting When NDP Votes Rise
- Charting the Votes where Tories are Strongest
- Charting the Vote for Incumbents
- Charting the Votes for Hedy Fry
- Charting the Votes of Visible Minority Members
- Charting May's Chances against MacKay
- Charting the Votes for a Rural Showdown
- Charting the Votes in Nanaimo-Cowichan
[Editor's note: This is the latest of a new feature on The Tyee through election day: Charting the Votes. In charts and prose, veteran political analyst Will McMartin breaks down the important factors in key B.C. races.]
If the past is a reliable guide, four or five of B.C.'s incumbent MPs will be defeated on Oct. 14. I'll share the math that suggests so further down. But first, who might be those unfortunate souls?
Currently the Conservatives have a significant lead in provincial polls, but Nina Grewal (in Fleetwood-Port Kells) and Gary Lunn (Saanich-Gulf Islands) look to be in tough contests. The New Democrats also enjoy growing popular support, but Catherine Bell (Vancouver Island North) and Alex Atamanenko (B.C. Southern Interior) must do their best to win re-election.
The Liberals at present seem to be losing altitude in B.C. polls, so Sukh Dhaliwal (Newton-North Delta), Keith Martin (Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca), Raymond Chan (Richmond) and Don Bell (North Vancouver) will be hard-pressed to persevere.
Blair Wilson, who won West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country in 2006 as a Liberal, left the party caucus amid allegations of improper election spending and now represents the Green Party. He appears doomed.
History's equations
Canada has had 10 federal general elections since 1972. In B.C. over those 10 contests, sitting members of parliament have offered themselves for re-election a total of 241 times.
And in those 241 contests, incumbents retained their seats 185 times -- or 76.7 per cent of the total.
On average, then, each B.C. MP seeking re-election has about a three-in-four chance of doing so.
(This analysis considers only those MPs who won their seat in the preceding federal general election and therefore served a full term in office; it does not include those who served only for a brief period in Ottawa after winning a mid-term byelection.)
Actually, the odds look to be even better than three-in-four. Of the 56 drubbings administered to sitting MPs by B.C. voters through the last 10 federal general elections, a whopping 22 occurred in a single year -- 1993. That was when the insurgent Reform Party made a stunning breakthrough to capture 24 of the province's 32 House of Commons seats.
As illustrated by the chart above, that year stands out as exceptional. Of two-dozen incumbents who re-offered themselves to voters, just two won re-election; the remainder were unceremoniously tossed out of office.
If 1993 is removed from our calculations, the number of incumbent MPs who were triumphant in recent decades is 183 out of 217 -- or 84.3 per cent.
Generally, then, a B.C. member of Parliament who seeks to hold his or her seat has a better than four-in-five chance of doing so.
Interestingly, each of the last 10 federal general elections has seen the defeat of at least one sitting B.C. MP. A single incumbent lost in 1997; two failed to hold their seats in each of the 2000 and 2004 contests; three were rejected in 2006; four felt the voters' wrath in 1984; five were kicked to the curb in 1979 and 1980; and six underwent a public firing in both 1974 and 1988.
Currently, 32 B.C. MPs who were victorious in 2006 are running to retain their seats in the 2008 federal general election. Four others opted for voluntary retirement.
The retirees include Betty Hinton, a Conservative from Kamloops; Penny Priddy, a New Democrat in Surrey North; and David Emerson, who after winning election as a Liberal in Vancouver-Kingsway, decided to keep his chauffeur-driven limousine and other ministerial prerequisites by joining the Conservative government.
The fourth is Stephen Owen, the former Liberal MP in Vancouver Quadra, who resigned his office in 2007. He was succeeded in a byelection by Joyce Murray, also a Liberal, six months ago.
Thus, if past elections are a guide to the future, we should expect that about 15 per cent of B.C.'s 32 incumbents -- that is, approximately four or five -- to be defeated on Oct. 14.
When British Columbians were twice as mad
A footnote: B.C. voters were doubly grieved in 1993. Most were angry with the federal Progressive Conservatives after nine years under Prime Minister Brian Mulroney (and a few extra months under Kim Campbell). Many more were fed up with the provincial government led by New Democratic Party Premier Mike Harcourt.
The federal general election that year saw all seven Tory MPs from B.C. who were seeking re-election go down in defeat: Ross Belsher, Campbell, Mary Collins, Al Horning, Tom Siddon, Stan Wilbee and Dave Worthy.
A stunning 15 of 17 NDP incumbents were rejected by B.C. voters: Dave Barrett, Dawn Black, John Brewin, Brian Gardiner, Lynn Hunter, Jim Karpoff, Joy Langan, Lyle MacWilliam, Margaret Mitchell, Sid Parker, Bob Skelly, Ray Skelly, Dave Stupich, Ian Waddell and Jack Whittaker.
The two B.C. incumbents who held their seats in 1993 were New Democrats Nelson Riis and Svend Robinson. ![]()





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politico
3 years ago
OK So....
McMartin points out that 4-5 seats COULD change.
I agree and here are my predictions:
1) Lunn will lose
2) Catherine Bell will lose
3) Keith Martin will win
4) Raymond Chan will lose
5) Atamenko may lose
So, here in BC, where the NDP polls the strongest and where the pundits point to the polling numbers to prove that Jack is going to be the leader of the official opposition, it seems apparent that the NDP will actually come out of the election with less seats than they started with.
So tell me again how borrowing 18.5 million dollars to undermine the credibility of one Liberal politician and pretend you are going to replace him is a sound strategy?
Ultimately the "collapsing" Liberals will pick up S-GI and defeat a Natural resources Minister, but will lose Richmond to the cons so there count will shrink as well.
So the great strategists of BC in the both the NDP and Liberal Paries, namely Brad Lavigne and Mark Marrisen with the ears of their respective leaders have done nothing but bring them to their knees.
Good work! Keep it up and Harper won't need Tom Flanagan to deliver his Majority as he can simply rely on guys Lavigne and Marrisen.
Frank
3 years ago
politico
And what was the NDP supposed to do? Not run any candidates? Should incumbent NDP MPs have resigned before the election to save money?
G West
3 years ago
In the end
Liberals are no different than Conservatives.
If you want change you have to vote for it.
politico
3 years ago
Frank
I would not recommend either strategy, but both would have yielded better results.
politico
3 years ago
G West
While invoking the nostalgia of Tommy Douglas with such notional rhetoric, you do him a significant disservice by not recognizing the obvious.
The behind the scenes manipulators have their stock in Harper and his cronies.
They clearly are not invested in the Dion Liberals.
Albeit the liberals are chalk a block full of the manipulative moles we have grown to detest but they are easily identifiable as the ones currently attacking their own party as well as Dion.
A Dion victory would actually be one that goes against the grain of the true power brokers you are referring to and would be an upset of their agenda.
It could also give the Liberal Party an opportunity to purge these deceptive dupes and realign itself with the people.
Had the NDP spent the last two years working with Dion on a strategy designed to do this instead of working with Harper to destroy the Liberals both the NDP and Liberals would have benefited as well as the country. This strategy would have also had the added bonus of actually undermining the dreadful agenda of the Harper conservatives versus propping it up.
bilbo2
3 years ago
Vote Strategically
We can bypass all this churn over how the majority non-Conservative vote will split, giving the Conservatives a majority. Check out voteforenvironment.ca to make your strategic vote count.
Frank
3 years ago
politico
"I would not recommend either strategy, but both would have yielded better results."
No NDP seats and more Liberals is a better result? Strange how people collecting a salary as NDP strategists wouldn't have suggested that.
Why would the NDP work with Dion? How many times has Dion gone out of his way to say no, never, he will not work with the NDP in any manner because we are idiots that can't do math.
Frank
3 years ago
bilbo2
Why bother voting "strategically" for Liberals when they have flatly rejected any coalition or deal with the NDP?
At best you'll be voting for a Liberal-Conservative coalition. They agree on more with each other than either does with the NDP.
politico
3 years ago
Frank
Your debating abilities are remarkable, they are particularly astounding when you are entangled in debating your own points.
EDITED FOR PERSONAL INSULTS.
STICK TO SUBSTANTIVE COMMENTS PLEASE. -- TYEE MODERATOR
The second Marissen and his back room buddies pushed Dion to the front of the parade, both Harper and Layton pulled out the knives, along with all the other usual suspects that we typically define as the enemy.
Even you must see that it is difficult to work with someone whose very clear agenda from the get go was your imminent demise.
You will remember when Layton did reach out to the opposition and garnered support for his private members bill on the environment. That was a fine example of leadership and even though Harper and his thugs ignored it, had they kept up that kind of pressure they would have altered the dynamics of parliament and ultimately filled the leadership void and delivered better electoral results.
Instead the strategy chosen has harmed the Country, alienated the base and, as we sill see, has also broke the bank. Takes a lot bake sales to raise 18.5 million dollars plus interest.....
politico
3 years ago
Biblo2
Precisely the point.
The strategy has dug the NDP in deep and even makes the future dismal with respect to loosening the minority government's lock on power.
Frank
3 years ago
Another view of strategic voting
http://www.punditsguide.ca/2008/09/think-twice-about-voting-strategically.php
Frank
3 years ago
politico
"Even you must see that it is difficult to work with someone whose very clear agenda from the get go was your imminent demise."
Did you not watch Dion's acceptance speech when he won the Liberal leadership? He said right in the speech on national tv that NDPers don't understand economics.
Pretty hard for Dion to have discovered that Layton was undermining him somewhere between winning the leadership and making his speech.
Your entire argument is built on one single thing, that the Liberals and NDP are pretty much the same, that Dion wants to work with us but Layton won't allow it.
Unfortunately there is no evidence for what you believe yet you keep repeating it.
Dion and Harper voted the same way on most issues. They both support the $50 billion in tax cuts to corporations which will leave the treasury too starved of funds to deliver any social program the NDP might want to see. Which means it would be just as useful for the NDP to form a coalition with the Cons as with the Libs, in both cases they would get nothing in return.
"I noticed some other people here point out your self serving style as both lacking and mundane, not to mention without any substance or other purpose than propping up your own ego."
You're my #1 fan.
The brain
3 years ago
LOL!
Liberals are no different than Conservatives. - G West
Are you going to suggest to the crowd that there is no difference between the Libs and Cons on:
- the environment
- the economy
- Afghanistan
- regulations
- CWB
- social spending
- the arts
- crime
and on... and on... and on...
Let me guess, next you'll suggest that ONLY the NDP is different. And they most certainly do stand separate from the pack (when Layton isn't making backroom deals to get or keep Harper in power). They want to pull out of NATO. They want to rip up NAFTA and heavily risk forcing a trade war with the next U.S. president. They want to clamp down on Bank user fees at a time when they will be facing major challenges to their balance sheets. They want to raise corporate taxes at the edge of a recession that will hurt investment, hurt banks when they seriously need our help, (good rhetoric a year and a half ago, get tough on banks and oil companies, just dated today) and while imposing an immediate $35 dollar a tonne carbon tax on oil companies with a "cap and trade" that has no detail. Talk about double whammies!
Sorry, G but Canadian corporations aren't our enemy. When it comes to expanding taxbase, its the foreign ones that pay no taxes here. Its funny how Jack never takes the time to spell out the difference. Yup, lets hobble our Canadian banks of which 40% of people older than 30 own shares of through RRSP's and Mutuals. Most unions understand this much, G, cripple your employer, and everyone is out of work. I just wish the NDP would figure that one out for a change.
And then there's the difference in leadership... three out of five have integrity and don't bully. Layton and Harper isn't one of them. Don't even get me started on the thinking department or the "motives" behind all that fake sincerity. I had to laugh when Layton tried to explain "intensity targets" but couldn't. Duceppe had to explain it for the average Canadian.
Remember when the question of nationalizing our energy came up? The NDP of old took credit for Trudeau's NEP back in the day. Not today, though. The Bloc and the Greens stand alone with that one, while the Libs are backing IT's and the Cons want it all owned by foreigners but Jack's stance? Raise taxes on our Can corps and hit 'em with an immediate $35 bucks a carbon tonne and stunt their growth. Some energy plan. The apple, G, has fallen far from the tree.
Its always the same old same O with Jack. "Make the banks and oil companies pay!" says Jack. He just forgot to mention they were Canadian and drive our economy/GDP that pays for all those social programs we have in this nation. Heaven forbid, if Jacks old worn out line "when I become PM" ever actually had the chance of becoming true, I'd be voting ABNDP.
Otherwise, its easy for me to say this. Strategically vote ABC! Vote for the best Candidate in your riding that isn't Conservative. Vote colorblind, or vote like a fool.
The brain
3 years ago
Why bother... (snickers)
Why bother voting "strategically" for Liberals when they have flatly rejected any coalition or deal with the NDP? - Frank
I dunno... cause Harper's policies are a giant wrecking ball to our nation and economy? Because its pretty hard to be buddies with someone who wants your extinction?
"At best you'll be voting for a Liberal-Conservative coalition. They agree on more with each other than either does with the NDP. " - Frank
Just about spilled my coffee with that one, Frank! How easily you forget the Bloc and what could be a few Greens and Indies. My, how easily you forget them and pay absolutely no attention to how Dion and Gilles have been getting along.
For whatever reason Frank, you miserably fail to note the advantages the Bloc has in working with Dion instead of against him. For the Bloc to seriously succeed in its goal as an independent Quebec, the Bloc needs a strong Canada. If Canada is seriously weakened by Quebec separation or western separation for that matter, the immediate danger of Canada becoming balkanized and later absorbed by the U.S. is very real. If Canada becomes balkanized and the pieces are slowly absorbed by the U.S., Quebec will stand alone and it is likely that some U.S. nutter president down the road will view Quebec as just another state and the tanks will roll.
Seriously, for Quebec to become a sovreign nation, it must keep the rest of Canada strong and for that to occur, the free flow of goods, services and people must happen. The same dollar would have to be used in much the same way the Euro is used in Europe. Quebec would have to treat with compassion, its own people of all languages including English and minorities.
Quebec has matured, Frank. Their politics has matured. Is a coalition possible with Dion, May and Duceppe as leaders? You betcha! As crazy as that sounds, we are entering a new age in politics. NDP'ers and Cons, if they thought they would make a breakthrough in Quebec... they can think again. Quebec will go at least 70 seats Bloc and Lib out of 76 in this next election, mark my words. Layton was born there, but Quebecers know their own. Just wait til' Nanostradamus numbers reaffirm what I already know.
If the NDP is only one of two options as a balance of power should the Libs form a minority government, I can tell you straight off that they won't be considered as a preferred allie to pass confidence bills unless the NDP introduces bills that Dion will accept.
That's the future anyhow, as I see it.
The brain
3 years ago
Wups, forgot a point!
Why bother voting "strategically" for Liberals when they have flatly rejected any coalition or deal with the NDP? - Frank
Because the quality of candidates counts too, Frank. Geez, its as if the party brand is all we need to know. Talk about a dumbed down paradigm in terms of how to vote. "Do you know who's running in your riding?" "Nope! Frank says its ok not to know, the party name is enough or some color, just vote orange."
Sorry about putting words in your mouth Frank, but I can still read lips. You've got me musing now about what Layton said recently about bragging up NDP budgets. Of course, when the Ontario NDP record came up Layton said the NDP said the party never had anything to do with those, it was all Bob Rae's fault. I thought that was a rather interesting double standard.
Lets not get lazy, people!!! Vote strategic, vote ABC and that means load up on the best candidate who isn't representing dark heart Harper!!
You can find your riding here:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/ridings/
Lets get active, educate and vote and erase the disgrace! :-)
G West
3 years ago
Working with Liberals
C'mon politico, you know better than that.
Every time the NDP works with Liberals they lose - I hope you noticed the Nanos post debate Poll...
G West
3 years ago
And politico
It's you who invoked Tommy Douglas - not me.
Right now it's Jack Layton who's pushing real change...unlike Marissen's puppet Stephane Dion - who's pretty much same old, same old.
G West
3 years ago
Yep, that's what I'm saying Lorne
There is practially no difference between the Liberals and the Conservatives in this country.
Evidence:
Emerson....AND...Stronach
I could have cited Garth Turner too, but I know he's bit of a hero or yours so we'll say he's just a maverick - something like John McCain.
G West
3 years ago
By the way
My understanding of the NDP policy on NAFTA is that they, like Barack Obama, would like to renegotiate the pig in a poke we got from Mulroney's love affair with Ronnie Reagan.
...An NDP government would fight to reopen the North American Free Trade Agreement to beef up protection for Canadian jobs, NDP Leader Jack Layton said Monday.
“We want a new NAFTA. We want a North American fair trade agreement,” Layton told a crowd of about 100 supporters. “We want a fair deal, not a sellout.”
With the prospect of the next U.S. president reopening NAFTA, Layton also said his New Democrats, among other things, would fight to add “meaningful” labour and environmental standards to the deal, reform the energy provisions, which require the export of fossil fuels to the United States even when there are shortages in Canada.
He said the NDP would also fight to remove the deal’s contentious provision that permits foreign investors to legally challenge Canadian policies.
Clear enough for you?
Frank
3 years ago
Lorne
"And they most certainly do stand separate from the pack"
Thanks for agreeing with that.
"(when Layton isn't making backroom deals to get or keep Harper in power)"
An unsubstantiated charge you keep making. No evidence except in your head.
"And then there's the difference in leadership... three out of five have integrity and don't bully. Layton and Harper isn't one of them."
So why are you saying NDPers should vote Liberal since you clearly believe as much as I do that we have nothing in common?
"Otherwise, its easy for me to say this. Strategically vote ABC!"
Why ABC? Why not "Anybody But Layton?" You hate him more than Harper.
"Because its pretty hard to be buddies with someone who wants your extinction?"
Yes, and you're not trying to get rid of the Cons, you're trying to get rid of the NDP.
Reading your posts its obvious even you Liberals believe you and the NDP are very different. You should tell this to politico.
Frank
3 years ago
You're idiots but we want you to join us!
According to Lorne the Liberal, the NDP doesn't understand banks, corporations, or economics in general. We will destroy Canada's economy with a trade war. We actively work with Harper and the Conservatives in secret backroom deals. We don't understand Quebec or NATO and we not only have a bully for a leader we also run lousy candidates.
But in spite of all that we should vote Liberal and ignore the fact of the Liberal leader saying he would never work with us.
And what do we gain from destroying our own party to keep the Liberals in power? We get the Green Shift, which the provincial NDP is fighting here.
Frank
3 years ago
Liberal math
Canadians need to support their banks. We need not only to pay the existing user fees but perhaps hold bottle drives as well. Maybe even mandated donations as well because gov't handouts aren't enough. The word is Bono is trying to get a Bank Aid concert going at the behest of Dion.
We also need to support our corporations by making their taxes the lowest in the world. The money we thus no longer receive will be the reason we can't keep any of our social program promises that we've been making since the original moon landing.
But not to worry, a healthy Canadian branch plant is more important than our promise 20 years ago to reduce child poverty.
alive
3 years ago
Really
"Yup, lets hobble our Canadian banks"
Are you referring to those institutions that make a record profit every quarter?
realisticman
3 years ago
Ice Station Beaver
Guns and bullets, and aeroplanes up north.
Yee Ha! Jack.
"Ben O'Hara-Byrne, Canwest News Service/Global National
Published: Friday, October 03, 2008
IQALUIT, Nunavut - NDP Leader Jack Layton pledged Friday to beef up Canada's presence in the Arctic in order to protect Canadian sovereignty near the North Pole as he unveiled new elements of his party's plan for the region.
The proposal would include an increase in the number of northern surveillance flights and an expansion in emergency exercises for several government bodies and departments, such as the Canadian Coast Guard, Environment Canada and the Canadian Forces."
G West
3 years ago
A great idea
It'd provide a wonderful cooling off period for all the Canadian Forces personnel coming home from kicking Taliban butt in Afghanistan.
And a lot less costly to the exchequer too.
I hope you noted yesterday's statement from the head of British Airways realisticman.
realisticman
3 years ago
Steerage in the Air
It is so tiresome. It's all going down-market. The cheapos are booming. Time to go back to steamers.
Low-cost British rival Ryanair PLC, meanwhile, said passenger rose 20% in September to 5.23 million, while its load factor was down one percentage point to 84%. The carrier said it expected "a continuing exodus" of passengers to lower fares.
(RTTNews) -10/3/2008 WestJet Airlines (WJA.TO: News ) announced an 11% increase in Traffic, expressed in revenue passenger miles to 1.069 billion compared to 0.963 billion last year. Load Factor or occupancy declined by 3.2 percentage points to 75.5%. In the prior year, the company reported a load factor of 78.7%. Available seat miles or capacity for the month of September were up 15.8% at 1.417 billion compared to 1.224 billion a year ago.
For the third quarter, WestJet recorded a 17.5% increase in traffic to 3.705 billion from 3.152 billion a year ago. Load Factor was down 1.8 percentage points at 81.4%, while in the prior year the company reported a load factor of 83.2%. Capacity increased 20.1% to 4.551 billion from 3.789 billion in the previous year.
Some large airlines are cutting back but WestJet, on the other hand, pledged to push ahead with an expansion plan that included a code-share agreement with Dallas-based Southwest Airlines Co. and the delivery of 10 additional Boeing 737s next year.
Luke Skywalker
3 years ago
Musings...
Will McMartin:
The seat is a slam dunk for the NDP. The western part (South Okanagan Valley and Similkameen Valley) is blue Tory country bu the more populous West Kootenays is NDP country, an aberation in BC's interior.
Frank:
Ahhhh the evil corporations. You know, the ones owned by moms and pops, through their mutual funds, and union pension funds.
Laying the economic foundation for a healthier economy is somethin' that the NDP "left" doesn't seem to understand. Gary Doer's centrist Manitoba New Democrats do ... they've been cutting corporate taxes.
Ohhh, I forgot, the federal NDP wants to also rip up the Softwood Lumber Agreement - even BC provincial NDP forestry critic Bob Simpson calls it a dumb idea. An overnight doubling of duties at the border and a potential for thousands of more lost forestry jobs. Brilliant!
And the NDP's Vancouver Centre candidate Mike Byers wants to "shutdown" the Alberta oil sands. Brilliant!
Way out of tune with most Canadians.
G West:
It wasn't Nanos, it was an "online" Ipsos poll.
As for Nanos, yesterday's Leadership Index Score:
Stephen Harper 79 (-16)
Stephane Dion 71 (+40)
Jack Layton 48 (-12)
Elizabeth May 15 (-3)
Gilles Duceppe 11 (-3)
If Dion is bad, then Layton must be even worse according to that indicator.
G West
3 years ago
Thanks Luke, you're right
It was Ipsos - the current ubiquity of useless polls tends to make me glaze over - the distinctions between them being far less significant than their commonalities
The link is as follows:
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=4106
One thing about this election, it has given the 'perpetually undecided' voter more attention than they certainly deserve.
The thought that there is a rump of people so ill-considered and vague about their political leanings that they seem capable of voting in any of five different ways at this stage of the campaign does say something rather critical about some of the Canadian electorate.
Frank
3 years ago
Luke
"Laying the economic foundation for a healthier economy is somethin' that the NDP "left" doesn't seem to understand."
Yet you want our votes and tell us over and over on here that we're the same. You and brain and politico keep making my arguments for me.
By the way, you've been in power for most of the last 141 years, let us know when you've finished laying that groundwork and all those promises finally come to fruition k?
"Ohhh, I forgot, the federal NDP wants to also rip up the Softwood Lumber Agreement - even BC provincial NDP forestry critic Bob Simpson calls it a dumb idea."
Strange, because politico, you and brain keep telling me we're all the same and we have to stop Harper. Sounds more like you guys all want to stop Layton.
"And the NDP's Vancouver Centre candidate Mike Byers wants to "shutdown" the Alberta oil sands. Brilliant!"
If you don't like us then by all means vote Liberal and I'll vote NDP.
"Way out of tune with most Canadians."
82% of Canadians out of tune with the NDP, excellent. Just like the 76% of Canadians that are out of tune with the Liberals.
We're both minorities, enjoy.
G West
3 years ago
And, on the softwood deal and NAFTA
Did you not notice that Barack Obama thinks NAFTA could use a little overhaul too?
Given the fact that NDP governments have done a better job - under more difficult circumstances (and that includes Ontario) than either the Federal or any of the provincial Liberals or Conservative governments I've witnessed or studied I don't think Layton has to apologize for anything.
I guess you've forgotten both Grant Devine and Ross Thatcher Lorne. Would it be unfair of me to mention them?
And I can think of a couple of Ontario Premiers who had some trouble with the books too...remember?
OH, and by the way, since nobody in the press seems to have noticed, what do you think of the re-emergence of the doctrinaire neo-con Harper in the English debate?
You know the one, who responded to the question from Steve Paikin about whether he'd EVER raise taxes with a definite NO.
Sounds awfully like and amalgam of R B Bennett and George Bush to me.
Frank
3 years ago
Learning by rote?
"Ahhhh the evil corporations. You know, the ones owned by moms and pops, through their mutual funds, and union pension funds."
By the way Luke, you may recall we argued this point long ago over several days. My point was how little average Canadians actually own through their tiny investments. You denied it over and over until we dug up the actual numbers. You seem to have forgotten that lesson.
Frank
3 years ago
Liberal paradises
Here you go, a list of tax havens around the world that will make any Liberal happy. Canada is already on the list but you can read the notes for yourself.
http://www.zyra.org.uk/taxhaven.htm
Strangely, most of those countries have very little in the way of social programs or industry.
bontano
3 years ago
Emerson's perks
Whether Emerson had any prerequisites is perhaps debatable, but as a minister he would certainly have had many perquisites.
lynn
3 years ago
Foolish
Quote:
politico said:
"Albeit the liberals are chalk a block full of the manipulative moles we have grown to detest but they are easily identifiable as the ones currently attacking their own party as well as Dion."
I agree....but what does that say about Dion as a leader that he allows or does not even notice that his own backroom boys are "playing on both teams".... and intentionally de-railing his campaign? Is he that easily manipulated and controlled? How can he not see what is clearly going on ? We can.
So where is the consolation or hope for our country in that?....that he is a man so easily fooled?
politico
3 years ago
Lynn
Nowhere did I suggest that Dion did not notice what was happening nor did I suggest that his people were playing him.
I am pretty confident he is well aware of the circumstances within his party.
I don't believe he is easily fooled.
I think we have been fooled by the campaign to discredit him.
A closer look at Dion reveals more than the Harper/Layton "not a leader" frame.
A closer look at the green shift also reveals what might truly be the target.
The Green shift is both a measured re-distribution of wealth and a progressive approach to the overriding environmental concerns of the day. Two very significant policy positions that both the Cons and the NDP are currently lacking.
politico
3 years ago
G west
G West claims:
C'mon politico, you know better than that.
Every time the NDP works with Liberals they lose -
Dude this is just simply false.
G West
3 years ago
No it's not
Perhaps you can explain why you don't think that's the case.
To me it's self-evident - Liberals take all the credit for virtually every decent social program in this country - every one of them a CCF or NDP invention.
murdock
3 years ago
Interesting...
Will is prepared to 'ignore' the effect of the Reform party from 1993, yet seems equally willing to ignore the potential of the Greens in 2008.
While I agree the general polling data is not showing much of a blip, one may need to look at the polls prior to 1993 to get a handle on what the Reformers were doing in polls back before that 1993 election.
I seem to recall a general malaise that the Reform party would not ammount to much at all...
I think that enough Canadians may have reached the point that they may not be willing to 'hold their noses' and vote for any of the big parties.
There is a new vitality coming from Greens and Independant candidates.
One might even hope for more than one of each to get a seat.
I know that is a long-shot, but then we can always hope that the Canadian sheeple could break out of their pens and do more than bleat a little.
Grumpy
3 years ago
The problem with the NDP is.............
.........they are beholden to many fringe and special interest groups that has now excluded the mainstream voter. I think the NDP would do a lot better is they dropped a lot of baggage and get on with the 21st century.
The Greens today are what the reform of yesterday were, a party of protest. For those who believe we must vote and yet the those 3 mainstream parties do not reflect me, the Green party is a natural choice.
I'll wager that 90% of the people voting Green, haven't a clue about their platform, nor do they care because they want to send a message to the NDP. Libs. and the Cons. that there is an alternative.
I'm voting Green because they will get $1.45 in Federal funding and we need more diverse opposition in Ottawa and not the tired "old boys/girls club" we now have.
Mind you, my riding, Richmond/South Delta and our MP John Cummins is 'dead cert' and makes voting Green easier.
politico
3 years ago
Grumpy
"I'm voting Green because they will get $1.45 in Federal funding...."
Wow, so the greens bought your vote for a $1.45? Nice to see the value you place on your vote. What do ya think the country is worth? A couple grand?
politico
3 years ago
G West
The most recent example I will forward in Lib/NDP cooperation with results would be the so called NDP Budget passed under Martin Liberals in 2005:
The NDP budget…
* is balanced
* pays down debt
* contains tax cut for small business
* does not raise one penny in taxes
* and cancels Paul Martin’s $4.6 billion corporate tax break and instead invests that money in people.
$1.6 billion for affordable housing
$1.5 billion in reducing tuition fees
$900 million for environment & energy efficiency
$500 million for foreign aid
$100 million to protect wages in bankruptcy
Totalling
$4.6 billion
Of course I could have just sent ya to the party's website that boasts about it......
http://www.ndp.ca/budget
G West
3 years ago
But politico - you've made my point for me
What good did it do them?
When it came time, in late 2005, for Paul Martin to put up and actually support the NDP program the Liberals were offered - which would also have brought a real childcare program AND ensured the Kelowna accord, (among other things) and which would have permitted Mr. Martin's minority government to survive and not go to the people in January - Martin refused to go along because he was confident he hadn't been harmed much by the stench of Gomery and the sponsorship scandal...
Of course that calculus was wrong and the people threw out Paul Martin's government. In the end, his budget and the Kelowna Accord and Child Care didn't mean diddley squat to him when he thought he could finesse the Canadian people and get another mandate.
That's the kind of thing the Liberals always do...and then, in their inimitable style, they blame the NDP for the 'defeat' of their government.
Please, don't waste my time. You cannot do business on any kind of a rational and reasonable level with people who have no affinity for the truth.
The NDP should offer to enter a coalition with the Liberals...but only in terms of a signed, notarized and witnessed deal that gives them:
a) Cabinet ministers;
b) an agreed legislative program including tax reform to implement the recommendations of the 'Progressive Conservative' sponsored Carter Royal Commission on Taxation.
c) a real approach to re-building the infrastructure of Canada's cities;
d) an immediate withdrawal from Afghanistan;
e) among other things.
When you and Dion are ready to play that kind of game - I'm all for it.
Until then, don't fool yourself - the Liberals WILL NOT cooperate.
lynn
3 years ago
Same old , same old wrecking crew
Quote:
"I am pretty confident he is well aware of the circumstances within his party.
I don't believe he is easily fooled."
If that was the case, he would have different people running his campaign.
One only has to remember how Herb Dhaliwal's re-election was sabotaged.
Budd Campbell
3 years ago
McMartin Underestimating Changes
I have no quarrel with Will McMartin's review of history, or his treatment of the widespread losses of 1993 and a clearly exceptional year. But I think he's mistaken in projecting 2008 as an average year rather than another exceptional year.
The Liberal meltdown is going to accelerate in the final days as power-oriented voters do an about face, leaving the Red side of the Red/Blue duopoly for the Blue side. This was clearly the trend in the Vancouver Quadra byelection. Liberal pressure on voters not to go to the NDP is largely misdirected. Their biggest and least stoppable hemmorhage is to the Conservatives.
Fry, Chan, and Murray are all in a hopeless situation, as is Wendy Yuan. Vancouver City, for several years the major source of Liberal seats in BC, will soon be bereft of Liberals, with the likely (emphasize, likely, not certain) exception of Dosanjh in Vancouver South. There two, the potential for an about face simply cannot be ruled out.
Beyond Vancouver, incumbents Keith Martin and Sukh Dhaliwal face ever increasing challenges, and will probably loose as well. In addition, Conservative Randy Kamp can no longer appeal to his riding's fundamental anti-government sentiment.
Adding these names to that of Blair Wilson yields about 7 incumbents headed for early retirement.
politico
3 years ago
Lynn
Who exactly is running his campaign?
I think people are going to be surprised by what actually happens in this election.
The Libs will be the surprise in this election, largely due to the lowered expectations the Harper/Layton "not a leader" frame has brought about.
politico
3 years ago
GWest
Sorry to waste your precious time.
You clearly are busy given the amount of posts you have here alone.
I have to point out that your list of demands is pretty steep.
You clearly don't grasp the reality of the NDP position in parliament and historical role in our political system.
That you dismiss the NDP budget I pointed out for you well reflects this.
When was the last time a party with approximately 7% of the seats in the legislative assembly authored the budget?
You really need to get a grip on reality.
I will not respond to anymore of your unsubstantiated missives in a humble attempt to no longer waste your time.
Pardon me for the intrusion on your busy schedule.
realisticman
3 years ago
The Sympathy Vote
Dion may well pick up quite a few votes from those that feel a bit sorry for him and his earnest demeanor.
Would be interesting to see the look on Bob Rae's face if Dion looses by just a smidgen. Might be less easy to just boot him. Very interesting too if Dion maintains his momentum and squeaks in. Be sure that if Dion looks like he might make it then Québec will swing to the Liberals big-time. They love being on the winning team. Buckle up.
G West
3 years ago
Did I miss something?
Dion ≠ Momentum
Luke Skywalker
3 years ago
Dion
Who I will admit is a dud... lol... is now gaining momentum after the leadership debates... for the first time since the election was called.
Better late than never I guess.
For the first time, Dion is ahead/tied with Layton nationally in terms of the "best prime minister" and "leadership index" in today's Nanos poll.
http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC-Nanos-October-5-2008E.pdf
And Jack is running to become "Prime Minister".
Go figure.
G West
3 years ago
It's not Dion who's gaining
It's Harper whose support is falling apart...as noted here:
http://thechronicleherald.ca/Opinion/1082740.html
...under Harper, Canada’s reputation in the world has been trashed, along with that of the U.S. The assault on Kyoto, our unco-operative mood at the UN, our abandonment of peacekeeping in favour of a red-clawed militarism, support for U.S. torture policies (which no other government did), the abandonment of an even-handed approach in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and a string of other things have left our erstwhile allies bewildered. This screams out for a reversal.
On domestic policy, the issue of poverty is suddenly up as well, as is the question of day care and childhood development – with the figures showing Canada lagging increasingly behind in literacy and education. And we haven’t even mentioned the environment. The Harper Conservatives have basically nothing to say about social policy, except to cut taxes. Give people an extra hundred bucks off their taxes, as the ideology prescribes, and they’ll work it out for themselves.
Alas, with deficits looming, perhaps catastrophically so, not to mention other mayhem, the era of tax cuts is over, no matter what the parties promise, either here or in the U.S. Furthermore, the utopian right-wing presumption that private action alone solves everything is also over – the U.S. bailout of the failed money creed putting paid to that. The fact is that we will now need wise government action to guide us through the shoals ahead.
The Harper government doesn’t believe in public action, wise or not. That’s a problem, but we may not know how much of a problem until after the election when government action is increasingly called for, but the Harper government, virtually alone in the world, is ideologically opposed to it.
realisticman
3 years ago
Whatever
Fact is Dion is now fave for PM in the far-East, Québec and Ontario, and he's passed Jack. If the Libs pull this off he might well have virtually no-one from the Manitoba border west for Cabinet. He'll either send parachutes (the same way he was brought into Cabinet) or Canada will have a seriously divided country - again.
G West
3 years ago
Hmmm?
AGAIN
You must be kidding.
realisticman
3 years ago
Perhaps...
...you're too young to remember the phrase, "THE WEST WANTS IN".
If there's a Liberal win with all the seats east of Thunder Bay...
G West
3 years ago
I'm from the West I remember it and it's bull shit
The west was NEVER out - and once-nearly bankrupt Alberta and Saskatchewan wouldn't even 'exist' without central Canada.
The fact is that people who come here from other countries really haven't got a clue about Canadian history...
The irony in all of this is that Alberta is one of the main reasons there is an equalization program in the first place.
During the Great Depression, the governments of Alberta and Saskatchewan flirted with bankruptcy. Their hardship led to the creation of the Royal Commission on Dominion-Provincial Relations, also known as the Rowell-Sirois Commission, which put federalism under scrutiny. In its 1940 report, the Commission noted that:
The quality of education and welfare services is no longer a matter of purely provincial and local concern. In Canada today, freedom of movement and equality of opportunity are more important than ever before, and these depend in part on the maintenance of at least minimum national standards for education, public health and care of the indigent. The most economically distressed areas are the ones least capable of supporting these services, and yet are also the ones in which the needs are likely to be greatest.
Eventually, the Rowell-Sirois Commission's work was put in place, including the launch of the equalization program in 1957. In the early years, Alberta was a recipient province, and arguably federal supports helped shape today's Alberta.
Would you care for some further ‘history’ lessons?
The current Prime Minister doesn't tell the truth, doesn't keep his promises and is buttoned up and dysfunctional as a leader than he's seen his popularity trend downwards from almost 40% two weeks ago to, what is it this morning? Oh yeah, 34%.
The only truth Canadians ought to remember is that, if this plagiarist manages to eke out a win, he will NOT be supported by more than 60% of the Canadian public.
realisticman
3 years ago
Thanks, West
I note that in 1940 the commission you cite noted;
"In Canada today, freedom of movement and equality of opportunity are more important than ever before, and these depend in part on the maintenance of at least minimum national standards for education, public health and care of the indigent."
Sounds reasonable to me and that's why I've never grasped why some people are opposed to TILMA, which addresses this issue.
Returning to the West Wants In, what thinkest thou about this?:
"In his essay on the Socialist Party of Canada, published in the first issue of Labour/Le Travailleur in 1976, Gerald Friesen summarized the nature of this regional identity:
The time and pace of development, and the economy created by the national policies of the federal government, produced peculiar labour-management relations. Thus, the boom-bust character of the hinterland, the proprietary attitude toward the labour force in many industries, and the rough, unstable character of the new communities were causes of western unrest."
Friesen concludes with the observation: "Implicit in this analysis is an emphasis upon the influence of regional consciousness within the western labour movement.... Two generations of Canadian experience had fostered images of a new society in the West, whether radical, hospitable, or merely separate, and thus created a belief in western community."
"What the West wanted, how its aspirations could be fulfilled within the federal framework, and how fulfilling them would change Canada itself came to dominate the Reform Party's public agenda before its transformation into the Canadian Alliance in 2000.
In many respects, the Reform Party was simply the latest in a long line of regional protests emanating from the prairies over the past hundred years. The agrarian movement before World War I, the Progressive Party of the 1920s, the rise of Social Credit and the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation during the Great Depression, the Canada West Foundation established in the 1970s, and Ralph Klein's re-invigoration (if not re-invention) of the Alberta Conservative Party as the vanguard of neo-liberalism, are all part of a western revolt against the centre."
G West
3 years ago
And the Reform movement failed
And the 'Reform' movement failed because it was, like all right-wing movements, too focused on individuals and not enough cognizant of the importance of community.
Canada as a nation has never, virtually never, had the kind of leadership at the federal level which could mobilize the energy, resources and intelligence of the whole country.
TILMA is little more than a sop to neo-con business principles - it cares little or nothing about local strong and vital communities. And that's why municipalities all across the country have rejected it..
As for Klein, please, he was the progenitor of the idea that his province was being treated badly by confederation.
In fact, the dependence on oil royalties for 40% or more of that province's revenues has hamstrung it and made it stupid. Klein was just the penultimate proof of that fact - the current Premier is version 2.0.
In fiscal 2004/05, Alberta government received just shy of $10 billion in resource royalties – enough to pay for a full 40 per cent of Alberta's budget expenditures. Not many people (even in Alberta) know that sans resource royalties the $5 billion budget surplus would turn into a $5 billion deficit.
Unlike other provinces, Alberta has not needed to institute a provincial sales tax – and resource revenue has turned the once almost bankrupt province into the very incarnation of the neo-con dream of a flat tax.
Alberta is continuing to play "beggar-thy-neighbour" on tax relative to the whole country because, as Alberta lowers taxes other provinces must follow, so that businesses are not lured away to the oil patch.
The problem is, and Harper and his policies make this worse, it that the rest of the country rushes to the bottom to remain "competitive" at the same time that somewhat important things like affordable housing and decent public services are collapsing. Things which pee wee has said are the purview of charities.
But resource royalties, given the fact that they are not part of the federal revenue base makes them a major source of fiscal imbalance and regional tension. As Dalton McGuinty rightly complains, under the current formula an increase in the size of equalization would have to be financed in large part by Ontario – the same place which has suffered most from the high commodity prices that enrich the exchequer in Edomonton.
This isn’t about being anti-Alberta or anti-western.
Sharing the wealth made sense decades ago when Alberta was on its knees.
realisticman
3 years ago
GWest
quote:
"TILMA is little more than a sop to neo-con business principles - it cares little or nothing about local strong and vital communities. And that's why municipalities all across the country have rejected it."
My understanding is that certain aspects are successfully being implemented, that Ontario and Québec have signed on and Newfoundland will administer some of the professional accreditations. The aim is to increase mobility for qualified professionals, as is the case in much of Europe. Why is that so bad?
GWest, quote:
"As for Klein, please, he was the progenitor of the idea that his province was being treated badly by confederation."
I'm surprised you poo-poo the essay by David Bright for the Canadian Committee on Labour History. I though it would be right up your alley.
G West
3 years ago
I might not pooh-pooh it
I haven't read it.
Klein is an idiot. Lougheed, at least - both then and now - had some idea of a greater Canada. Klein was never more than a kind of Alberta-centric fascist - promoting a kind 'Little England' philosophy in his prairie kingdom.
You ought to know something about the parallels, given your background.
The aim of TILMA is far more than making professional mobility a walk in the park - you ought to investigate what its effects will be on the smaller interior communities that are fighting it so hard.