Polling gap

Strange that according to the latest Decima the Cons have a 15% lead over the Libs whereas according to the latest Nanos the lead has been narrowed to 5%.

Since that's way outside of the margin of error one of them must be wrong.

Astute observation, Frank

Considering motives of the Asper/Woodbridge media entities (CTV Globemedia, G & M, Can West) who contract Decima/Harris, Strategic Council and the totally out to lunch Angus Reid (Can West) online voluntary polls to cook the numbers in heavy favor of Conservatives followed by heavily biased opinion pieces in favor of a majority to privatize the CBC (its called Propaganda, folks)... and with Quebecor in Chapter 11, if Quebecor and CBC go down and Asper/Woodbridge buy out market share of the void left behind, we are looking at just two families controlling over 95% of Canada's mainstream media. Only the Star would stand solo against them.

But you already knew that! ;-)

Below is a list of candidates listed on CBC Canada votes Ridings/candidates from 4 weeks ago when it was first up and running. It is dated and doesn't have all the candidates up obviously, but offers a backgrounder.

BC

270 Abbotsford (Con Stronghold, Ed Fast Encumband, won by 4:1 margin
Con Ed Fast (Lawyer)
Lib Lionel Traverse (good profile, Pediatrician)

271 Southern Interior (had 49% of vote in last election, NDP stronghold)
Alex Atamenko (Incumbent) NDP

272 Burnaby Douglas (less than 2.6% between them in previous 2 elections)
Bill Siksay (Incumbant) NDP
Bill Cunningham Lib

273 Burnaby New Westminister (won by Peter Julian in last 2 elections, NDP stronghold)
Peter Julian, NDP (incumbant)
Carrie-Anne McLaren, Green
Sam Rakhra, Con (no profile)

274 Cariboo, Prince George (Dick Harris Con stronghold, winning by 8,000+ votes last 2 elections)
Con Dick Harris (incumbant)
Bev Collins (Canada Action Party)

275 Chilliwack, Fraser Canyon (Chuck Strahl ownes this riding, Con stronghold)
Con Chuck Strahl (incumbant)
(no other profiles)

276 Delta, Richmond East (won this riding by 15,000+ votes, likely to repeat, another Con stronghold)
John Cummins (Con)
Dana Miller (Lib)

277 Esquimalt - Juan De Fuca (Keith Martin won this riding by 2,500 votes, in a tight three way race)
Troy Desouza, Con
Brian Gordon, Green
Keith Martin, Lib (incumbant)
Jennifer Burgis, NDP

278 Fleetwood, Port Kells (This will be a tight race. Nina Grewal is unlikely to repeat. This is 22% East Indian riding, with the NDP running an East Indian candidate, as is Nina. Nina won by a squeaker over Brenda. I like Brenda to upset in this riding)

Nina Grewal, Con (Incumbant)
Brenda Lock, Lib
Nao Fernando, NDP

279 Kamloops - Thompson - Cariboo (Betty Zane Smith won previous 2 elections for Cons, isn't running again. Ken or Micheal should win this riding)
Donovan Cavers, Green
Ken Summerfield, Lib
Micheal Crawford, NDP

280 Kelowna, Lake Country (Conservative Stronghold, Ron took 50% of votes last time out)
Ron Canaan, Con (Inc)
Grant Baudais (Canada Action Party)
Kevin Hagglund (NDP
Diana Cabott (Lib) (no profile)

281 Kootenay Columbia (Jim Abbott owns this riding winning previous 4 elections)
Jim Abbott, Con (Inc)
Leon Pendleton (NDP)

282 Langley (Conservative stronghold, Mark won by 2 to one margin last time out)
Mark Warawa, Con (Inc)
Patric Meyer, Green
Jake Gray, Lib

283 Nanaimo/Alberni (Conservative stronghold, Gary Lunney won election last time by a 9% margin, faces tougher competition... no Liberal candidate?)
Gary Lunney, Con (Inc)
John St. John, CAP
John Fryer, Green
Zenaida Maartman, NDP

284 Nanaimo, Cowichan (NDP won last time round by 6,000 votes. Cons are running former MP Reform bapist minister)
Reed Elley, Con (former Incumbant)
Christina Knighton, Green
Brian Scott, Lib
Jean Crowder, NDP (Inc)

285 Newton - North Delta (Sukh Dahliwal won this riding for the first time for the Libs by a thousand votes and beat the Con candidate by 2,000 votes. Sandeep Pandeer is a qualified candidate for the Cons, but... I'll give the edge to Sukh as the NDP won't factor in as heavily and NDP votes should go Liberal)
Sandeep Pandeer, Con
Sukh Dahliwal, Lib (Inc)
Teresa Townsley, NDP

286 New West Minister, Coquitlam (Really like the level of candidates running in this riding. Dawn Black has the incumbancy edge, but she's up against qualified opponents. Libs could take this one with momentum, but I'm giving it to Dawn)
Dawn Black, NDP (Inc)
Yonah Martin, Con
Marshall Smith, Green
Michelle Hassen

287 North Vancouver (Don Bell won it last couple times out, last time as a squeaker against the Con candidate. Andrew Saxon appears to be another David Emerson)
Don Bell, Lib (Inc)
Andrew Marshall, CAP
Andrew Saxon, CON

288 Okanagan, Coquilhalla (Con Stronghold held by Stockwell Day, should win easily again, even though Libs and NDP have qualified candidates)
Stockwell Day, Con (Inc)
Al Webster, CAP
Valerie Hallford, Lib
Ralph Poynting, NDP

289 Okanagan/Shuswap (Con stronghold, won by Colin Hayes last time 'round by 20% and should win again although the Libs have a better candidate this time)
Darren Seymour, CAP
Colin Mayes, Con (Inc)
Hugette Beaudin-Allen, Green
Janna Francis, Lib
Alice Brown, NDP

290 Pitt Meadows - Maple Ridge (Con stronghold, won by 6% over Bockering in '06 in tight race against Bockering. Bockering could win depending on whether NDP finds good candidate or not)
Randy Kamp, Con (Inc)
Mike Bockering, Lib

291 Port Moody - Westwood - Port Coquitlam (James Moore won by 11% margin (6,000 votes) over the Lib candidate last couple elections, should repeat though Lib candidate looks better)
James Moore, Con (Inc)
Ron Mckinnon, Lib

292 Prince George, Peace River (Jay Hill Con stronghold with 60% of the vote)
Jay Hill, Con (Inc)
Betty Bekkering, NDP

293 Richmond (Raymond Chan won last couple elections, faces Alice Wong who he defeated in 2004
Raymond Chan, Lib (Inc)
Alice Wong, Con

294 Sannich, Gulf Islands ( Gary Lunn has held his seat since 97', splitting NDP/Lib votes by 7,000 votes or 11%. He faces two teachers, one a Lib U of Vic professor. Andrew Lewis took 10% last time 'round )
Gary Lunn, Con (Inc)
Briony Penn, Lib (star candidate!)
Julian West, NDP
Andrew Lewis, Green

295 Skeena - Bulkley Valley ( Jason Cullen took the last two elections and should threepeat)
Jason Cullen, NDP (Inc)
Pauline Friesen, CAP
Rod Taylor, CHP
Sharon Smith, Con
Hondo Arendt, Green
Corrina Morhart, Lib

296 South Surrey - White Rock - Cloverdale (Con stronghold, won with 47%, led the Lib candidate by 17%. Its worth noting the 2004 election with the Liberal candidate Judy there, was much closer withh 6% spread between them)
Peter Prontzos, NDP
Russ Hiebert, Con (Inc)
Judy Higginbotham, Lib

297 Surrey North (Cadman's old riding. Dona is riding for Cons and could win)
Dona Cadman, Con (Inc)
Kevin Pielak, CHP

298 Vancouver Centre (Lib stronghold Hedy Fry country. Hedy won easily with 15% over NDP's challenger, Hedy should win again although her competition is much stiffer this time)
Hedy Fry, Lib (Inc)
Lorne Mayencourt, Con
Adrianne Carr, Green
Micheal Byers, NDP

299 Vancouver East (NDP stronghold, Libby Davies took 56% of vote last two elections)
Libby Davies, NDP (Inc)
Ryan Wawara, Con
Ken Low, Lib

300 Vancouver Island North ( Within 400 votes between Duncan and Bell in previous two elections. Poor candidate profiles running in this riding. This one is up for grabs)
Catherine Bell, NDP (Inc)
Geoff Fleischer , Lib
John Duncan, Con

301 Vancouver Kingsway (Emerson's old riding. Wendy Yuan should win this one handily as its 42% chinese riding and she has an excellent profile, community standing)
Wendy Yuan, Lib
Don Davies, NDP
Salomon Rayek, Con

302 Vancouver Quadra (Joyce Murray won late by-election by a squeaker against Meredith with half the voter turnout of 2006)
Joyce Murray, Lib (Inc)
Deborah Meredith, Con
Daniel Grice, Green
John Turner, HRI

303 Vancouver South (Liberal stronghold, although 42% of vote is asian and Cons have asian candidate running, although his profile is lacking)
Wai Young, Con
Ujjal Dosanjh, Lib (Inc)

304 Victoria (should be a race between the Lib and NDP candidates. Former Lib stronghold)
Denise Savoie, NDP (Inc)
Jack McClintock, Con
Anne Park Shannon, Lib
Jeremy Arney, CAP

305 West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast - Sea to Sky country (Blair Wilson's riding. Should be a race between Con and Green)
John Weston, Con
Blair Wilson, Green (Inc)
Dana Larsen

Safe Con seats: 11 Safe NDP seats: 6

270 Ed Fast 271 Alex Atamenko

274 Dick Harris 273 Peter Julian
275 Chuck Strahl 284 Jean Crowder
276 John Cummins 295 Nathan Cullen
299 Libby Davies
281 Jim Abbott 304 Denise Savoie
282 Mark Wawara
288 Stockwell Day
289 Colin Mayes
291 James Moore
292 Jay Hill
297 Dona Cadman

Safe Liberal seats: 4
298 Hedy Fry
301 Wendy Yuan
293 Raymond Chan
303 Ujjal Dosanjh

Up for grabs:

15 seats are up for grabs out of 36

272 NDP/Lib Siksay/Cunningham
273 NDP/Lib Julian/Lenoski
277 Lib/NDP Martin/Burgis
278 Lib Brenda Locke
279 NDP Sommerfield
280 Con Canaan
283 Con Gary Lunney
285 Lib Dhaliwal
286 NDP/Lib Black/Hassen
287 Lib/Con Bell/Saxxon
290 NDP Mike Bocking
294 Lib Brionny Penn
296 Con/Lib Hiebert/Higginbotham
300 NDP Catherine Bell
302 Lib/NDP/Con Murray/Caplan/Meredith
305 Con John Weston

Seat breakdown: Cons 15 seats. NDP 10 seats. Libs 11 seats.

Keep in mind that the candidates listed were an old list from over 3 weeks ago so they don't include all the candidates running currently.

What else has changed since then? Lets see...

Dion showed some leadership in the debates and that means all bets are off with safe urban seats from all other parties in BC.

273 has a Liberal contender now against NDP Peter Julian. This riding is 52% immigrants... Peter could be in trouble here. This seat is definitely in play and will be too close to pick 'em at this point.

280 I had considered Ron Canaan's seat to be safe from his performance in 2006 election, but... he's facing a Lib contender here in Diana Cabott and Angela Reid is due for double digit support. I think this seat is in play for the Libs.

287... Folks, we've got a Conservative corporate raider here. I don't want this corporate lobbyist elected at all costs. His profile oozes of another David Emerson! Andrew Saxxon has got "sellout" written all over him. I like the Green running here, but load up on Don Bell. Don's got savy as well. Get Don in there one more time.

294 Gary Lunn is done with the NDP candidate dropping out. Brionny Penn looks strong here.

296 I like Liberal chances here with the riding Lib candidate being given a boost by Dion in the debates.

300 This riding could have an indie dark horse. Thats the thing with not watching candidate debates or knowing whats happening on the ground... tough to predict, but I'm giving this riding back to the NDP (was Con with Duncan) I'm leaning that way because Duncan, like so many other Cons, boycotted the debates!!

302 Joyce Murray won a close byelection not long ago against her Con opponent. She faces a tougher NDP candidate this time as well. This is a very hard riding to pick because of the NDP candidate possibly splitting the vote for a Con win, but I'm going with Joyce here.

305 John Weston will likely win this riding due to a vote split.

Ok, so final predictions:
Safe seats: Cons 11 NDP 6 Libs 4
Probable picks: Libs 3 NDP 3 Con 3
Pick 'em: 7! (note: Libs are contenders in all 7)

At the moment overall picks:
Cons: 15 NDP: 10 Libs 11

I'm basing predictions on strength coming back to Liberal brand due to Dion success combined with Harper failure's in debates, as well as downturn in economy and other factors like Plagurism of Harper speeches. Early Nanos 3 day tracking polls indicate a "pop" in support of Dions leadership capabilities. Keep in mind that Nanos polls should be considered far more reliable than the rest (especially if the Libs are leading or gaining). This poll only has one of three post French debate numbers in Nano's 3 day tracking polls and look at the change. My overall hunch is that the Cons will dive while the Libs ascend from now til' the election itself. There are surprises coming, such as the Con platform yet to be revealled and likely big money promised for Quebec, but they won't roll over. The debates will truly prove themselves to be the defining turning point of this election.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC-Nanos-October-3-2008E.pdf

Latest national average is CP 35%, LP 30%, NDP 18%, Bloc 10%, Greens 9%.

One other thing:

I just wanted to add that the overall quality of candidates has improved over 2006. This election could suprise people in the sense that the Libs could do better in this province. When one truly looks at the profiles, one will see why that is. Cons will still be strong in the interior but the lower mainland and the Islands should go the Libs/NDP's way.

There is one other thing that should be mentioned. Gordon Campbell's Liberal brand is much more akin to the Harper Conservative brand. Its not only visible with policy, but with the reality that there are 4 (maybe even 5) former Campbell MLA's running for the Cons. Joyce Murray is the only former Campbell MLA running for the Liberals and she has distanced herself from Campbell for a few years now. This should help her fortunes but I doubt that it will help the fortunes of former Campbell MLA's running for the Cons.

All in all, the analysis was done with demographics, historical voting patterns, quality of candidates and their competition and what is happening nationally with the campaigns in mind. All in all, this province should decide who forms the next government and by what margins including the balance of power in a minority situation, so... it should be exciting to watch! :-)

But Lorne

To suggest that, you have to ignore the malign influence of Mark Marrisen and Co - whose presence in both camps in BC is epidemic - You'll notice Campbell hasn't gotten into the Carbon Tax debate with pee wee at all.

Maybe you should ask yourself why not.

You'd think he'd be out there defending Dion round the clock - after all, Dion's given him lots of chances to speak up.

Instead, Campbell is busy removing tolls from the Coquihalla...LOL And, it's hard to ignore the impact of Liberal Cons like this getting ready for the upcoming provincual bye elections.

Or maybe you didn't notice Dr Margaret MacDairmid - the Campbell candidate in Vancouver Fairview.

Face it, the neo-cons are all mixed up - they don't really know who they are...

The Brain... I'm Gonna Have Another Brain Fart :)

Worst incumbent BC MP but Con hold. Provincially, the two seats are Liberal and federal Liberals tide in BC is falling back into the City of Vancouver.

Nope. Con hold. The riding represents the overall BC federal popular vote. (when it wasn't a Nelson Riis seat.)

Nope. Con's this time. Cons overall popular vote up in BC and the Libs are down. This isn't 2004 or 2006.

Agree, but could be a Con retake considering it extends out further into the 'burbs.

Mike Bocking is the NDP candidate! But Con hold.

Should be an NDP hold but they picked an unknown no-name candidate. The "Cadman" name is what might make this a Con take with their overall popular vote up in BC, and the NDP down, with the Libs further down.

Van Isle North

"300 Vancouver Island North ( Within 400 votes between Duncan and Bell in previous two elections. Poor candidate profiles running in this riding. This one is up for grabs)
Catherine Bell, NDP (Inc)
Geoff Fleischer , Lib
John Duncan, Con"

Yes Mr Duncan has not participated in at least one of the debates, though Ms Bell managed to stick her foot in her mouth at least three times during two different appearances.

During one she was present up until her part was done, then left before the Q&A or chat opportunity afterwards. She got her photo op then bugged out, it was sad.

Not as sad as the 'vote geoff' hand made signs that are falling down everywhere. They look like bad garage sale signs. Then about a week ago someone must have felt sorry for this high-school, ahem university student that is coming out to 'stump' during weekends and when there is a big enough break in class (on the lower mainland). The Liberal candidate is a joke...without a punchline.

Mr Draper, the independant you could not identify, handled questions very well up north and has been busy in the Comox Valley and Campbell River areas raising money and awareness. I think he was also at one of the other debates, but since there was no Conservative to actually snipe at the Q&A was really tame...sad actually.

The Green candidate has been mostly invisible to my searches, I heard that they were at the north island debate, but not too much has come out from the press up there about the event. Again I think it was the lack of all of them being present that is limiting the press.

As far as some not going to this or that debate...it has next to no effect on the 'core' supporters of either camp, NDP or Conservative, they will both get out large numbers of voters and even the advance polls have been busy.

Flip a coin for which one takes VI North, I would like to think that the Independant stands a chance, but the huge core bases for the main camps of NDP and Conservative make that next to impossible...unless a really big tide comes from the 'mushy middle' voters and they actually come out to the polls on the Tuesday after Thanksgiving.

Hi, Lukeskywalker

Yeah, I'm holding firm on Liberal picks in the ridings you've outlined. Thanks for pointing out the Mike Bocking mistake, but I have Mike to win in that riding in my final calculations.

G West...

You continue to unimpress me with your candid NDP bias preventing you from seeing the truth.

"To suggest that, you have to ignore the malign influence of Mark Marrisen and Co - whose presence in both camps in BC is epidemic - You'll notice Campbell hasn't gotten into the Carbon Tax debate with pee wee at all." - G West

Gordon Campbell is a Conservative under a Liberal banner and everyone knows it, it seem, except you. If you would take the time to look into former BC MLA's running, you would easily see that 4 out of 5 former BC MLA's are running as Conservative candidates. The lone holdout is Joyce Murray who hasn't worked for Campbell for 4 years or more.

BC voters aren't stupid, G. They'll see through the difference between the BC Liberal brand and the Federal Liberal brand. Its apples and buicks.

"Maybe you should ask yourself why not." - G West

Again, maybe you should do the same.

"You'd think he'd be out there defending Dion round the clock - after all, Dion's given him lots of chances to speak up." - G West

Answer already given.

"Instead, Campbell is busy removing tolls from the Coquihalla...LOL And, it's hard to ignore the impact of Liberal Cons like this getting ready for the upcoming provincual bye elections." - G West

Tell me something I don't know.

"Or maybe you didn't notice Dr Margaret MacDairmid - the Campbell candidate in Vancouver Fairview.

Face it, the neo-cons are all mixed up - they don't really know who they are..." - G West.

Voters know G and they know federally as well where the chips fall as well.

There's a clear trend building in the polls. Notice the widening gap between the one pollster that can be trusted, Nano's, compared to the rest:

http://www.thestar.com/federalelection/article/419595

Nano's polling is continuing to widen from the pack and I have to tell you, this reeks of media propaganda coming from the rest of the pack.

Latest Nanos 3 day tracking poll (Oct 4th):
CP 34, LP 30, NDP 19, BQ 10, GP 7

Look at that link one more time and tell me what you see.

Lorne

The only real discrepancy between Nanos and the others is the Liberal/Green strengths. Greens are stronger in other polls, whereas the Liberals are stronger in Nanos polls.

The Cons, Bloc and NDP strengths are basically the same in Nanos, Ekos or Decima.

But Lorne

The fact of the matter is that you and I fundamentally disagree.

You think the Liberals and the Conservatives are different - I think they're pretty much the same.

And the fact that a guy like Marissen and a gal like Christy Clark are busy supporting both Campbell and Dion makes me pretty convinced that the provincial Campbell Party is pretty tightly connected to the Federal Liberal Party too.

I think there is a trend building in the polls too, especially here in BC and that trend is away from Campbell and away from Dion.

And Dion's version of the hated Campbell Tax isn't helping.

BTW, there's a rumour going round the provincial capital that Campbell may be reconsidering the whole thing [he'll use concern about the economy as an excuse, it's suggested] and is close to deciding to dump it before the election....