Books

Reading Stephane Dion

On big questions like national unity, Dion's writings reveal a fierce wonk.

By Richard Warnica, 12 Oct 2006, TheTyee.ca

Stephane Dion

Dion: academic rigor

  • Straight Talk: Speeches and Writings on Canadian Unity
  • Stephane Dion
  • McGill-Queens University Press (1998)

Even after a decade in politics, Stephane Dion, former professor, cabinet minister and now contender for the leadership of federal Liberal party, remains, in the public imagination, a bookish wonk. The former University of Montreal academic certainly looks the part. Tall, slim and awkward with a stiff, jerky stance, it often seems as if Dion would be more at home in a book-lined office than in front of a political rally.

But while profiles and analyses almost invariably mention his academic past, Dion's actual output during that period remains largely invisible. Despite having authored more than 10 books and heaps of scholarly articles, Dion's writing remains mostly hidden, at least in English Canada.

Language barrier

It seems odd. If a man spends the first phase of his life writing about liberal democracies, you'd think that writing might be relevant when he decides he wants to lead one.

That has certainly been the case for the race's other professor. Michael Ignatieff had his books well pawed over by the Canadian press even before he officially entered Canadian politics. So what's the difference?

For one, language. Dion's work is mostly in French. And most, as far as I can tell, hasn't been translated.

Tone is another. Ignatieff is a Booker-nominated novelist. Content aside, the former Harvard man's writing is smooth and easily accessible. Dion, on the other hand, was no public intellectual. His work was academic, written for journals and aimed at an audience of experts. Even his translated writing is peppered with multi-syllabic jargon worked into complicated sentences and overlong paragraphs. It's hard to make sense of and harder still to quote effectively.

Consider this excerpt from an article, "The Voting Behavior of Bureaucrats," written with fellow scholars Andre Blais and Donald Blake:

The evidence of a sectoral cleavage in voting behavior, therefore, does not unequivocally demonstrate the validity of the budget-maximizing bureaucrat model. It is simply consistent with it and tends to support it. Whether the pattern uncovered here is best explained by interests or values is a more difficult question and requires a close examination of specific elections, of the issues involved, and of the party stands on these issues.

The subject -- do bureaucrats vote for big government parties more than their private-sector counterparts? -- is pretty interesting. But the format, unless you have a PhD in political science -- or maybe boring writing -- is decidedly not. That's not to condemn Dion. He wrote like an academic because he was one. But it does go some way towards explaining why so little has been written about his pre-government work.

What's more, an academic investigation of voting patterns, unlike, say, an essay on torture, doesn't say much about what kind of leader Dion would make. How he went about writing it though, speaks volumes.

The idea of the budget-maximizing bureaucrat was around for years before Dion and company wrote the piece quoted above. It was pretty well accepted wisdom that, because they had a vested interest in big budgets, bureaucrats voted left. But it wasn't until Dion et al arrived that anybody actually tried to prove it one way or the other. The article indicates a pattern that became more visible as Dion's public prominence grew.

Sovereignty and truth

As an academic and later a politician, Dion's writing was characterized by rigorous interrogations of perceived truth. Never was this more visible than in the lead up to the second sovereignty referendum in the early 1990s.

Dion had flirted with sovereignty as a young man. But by the time he was established as a professor at the University of Montreal, he was a firm federalist. As the referendum loomed, Dion was more and more in the public eye, attacking what he saw as the myths and mistruths of the sovereignty movement.

In this excerpt, from "The Dynamic of Secessions: Scenarios after a Pro-Separatist Vote in a Quebec Referendum," published in the Canadian Journal of Political Science just weeks before the 1995 referendum, Dion says that even a yes vote does not guarantee sovereignty:

With a thin referendum majority, something below 55 per cent, and a No majority in crucial regions like Montreal and the Outaouais, the Quebec government will find itself in a very uncertain situation. Editorialists will question the legitimacy of such a slim margin of victory. Jacques Parizeau will have won because he will have convinced many voters that secession may be implemented smoothly and without difficulties. As his assurance is demonstrated to be false, the support for sovereignty will rapidly decrease to well below the 50 per cent threshold in the polls. It is very likely that federalist forces in Quebec will agitate for a new referendum, or that the federal government will use this opportunity to call an election. The separatist electoral defeat will nullify the referendum victory.

This is the scenario of the impossible secession, not of an inevitable one. I do not believe in the feasibility of secession under democratic rule unless it is based on a consensus. It is unwise for a society to engage itself in secession upon the authority of a thin majority. This being said, I certainly do not dismiss all credibility of Young's scenario. [Robert Young, the author of one of the books under review, argued that secession would inevitably follow a Yes vote, likely within six months of the vote.] Things may become so bad that a quick split may impose itself as the least costly solution. Ironically enough, that it the only feasible argument for secession that one may find in these five books. Things might become so bad as to lead to secession: what a good reason to vote Yes!

The yes side in the referendum lost, if barely. And soon after Dion was off to Ottawa, recruited by Jean Chrétien to serve as his general in the war on sovereignty.

Demolishing Bouchard

It was in his early years in government that Dion wrote what became his most widely cited works. In three short letters to then-leaders of the Parti Quebequois (all of which are included in Straight Talk: Speeches and Writings On Canadian Unity, published by McGill-Queens University Press in 1999), Dion dismantled much of the legal thinking that justified the sovereignty movement.

The first letter, addressed to Lucien Bouchard and published on August 11, 1997, set about to correct the Quebec premier's public claims about Quebec's right to separate:

Your argument is based on three rules that you claim are universally accepted: that a unilateral declaration of independence is supported by international law; that a majority of "50% plus one" is a sufficient threshold for secession; and that international law rejects any changes to the borders of the entity attempting to secede. We are convinced that such assertions are contradicted by international law and state practice.

Dion, in what became a recognizable style, set about demolishing Bouchard's contentions.

On a unilateral declaration of independence:

There is no democratic country in the world where the government of a province or other constituent entity has been allowed to determine these procedures [for secession] unilaterally.

The vast majority of international law experts...believe that the right to declare secession unilaterally does not belong to constituent entities of a democratic country such as Canada.

On the "clear majority":

If I had enough space, I would cite a series of examples from other countries in which a referendum verdict that was too uncertain was not acted on, for decisions much less important than the break-up of a country. But let us confine ourselves to your secession project...You yourself acknowledged on June 15, 1994, that an attempt at sovereignty with a slim majority would adversely affect "the political cohesion of Quebec." And on September 12, 1992, in the case of a simple constitutional referendum (on the Charlottetown Accord), Mr. Bernard Landry [then the deputy premier] linked the legitimacy of a "yes" vote to obtaining a substantial majority in Quebec.

On territorial integrity:

There is neither a paragraph nor a line in international law that protects Quebec's territory but not Canada's. International experience demonstrates that the borders of the entity seeking independence can be called into question, sometimes for reasons based on democracy. For example, you are no doubt aware that France insisted on portioning the island of Mayotte form the Comoros at the time the latter gained independence because the residents of Mayotte unequivocally expressed their desire to maintain their link with France.

It was that last line, with its casual reference to an obscure moment in international law, which was most indicative of the Dion style. And nowhere was that style more visible than in the last letter in the series.

Writes a mean letter

In August of 1997, Bernard Landry publicly questioned Dion's knowledge of international law, calling his assertion that "no country had been admitted to the United Nations without the approval of the predecessor state" a "fundamental historical error."

Dion, all pretences to courtesy abandoned, responded with this:

You claimed that, "to use one example out of fifty," Germany recognized Slovenia as an independent state within hours of its declaration of independence. Here are the actual facts on Slovenia...Despite the almost unanimous support of its population, Slovenia had to wait until the international community had determined that the dissolution of the Yugoslav federation was irreversible before obtaining international recognition.

The case of Slovenia shows how difficult it is to obtain international recognition. Our fellow citizens have the right to know that.

I am at your disposal to talk about the forty-nine other cases of international recognition you had in mind.

It is ironic, maybe, that the author of more than 10 books is best known for three letters, none of which is more than a handful of pages long. Should Dion overcome his current unenviable position and become Liberal leader, that might change. Who knows, if Dion ever comes up against Stephen Harper in an election, probably no more than a year away, "La dimension temporelle de l'action partisane : l'étude d'un cas : le débat au sein du Parti Québécois sur les modalités d'accession à l'indépendance" and other early Dion gems could become required reading for the Ottawa press corps.

Richard Warnica is a senior editor at The Tyee.  [Tyee]

43  Comments:

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  • G West

    5 years ago

    Comments on "Reading Stephane Dion"

    Judging by the interest in this thread, Dion has NO chance.

  • cosmo

    5 years ago

    As a non-liberal, I think Dion is the best hope as far as they are concerned.

    Bob Rae will Alienate Ontario
    Gerard Kennedy wont get much in Quebec
    Ignatieff will insult humanity

    Dion will do well in ontario, ok in quebec, and would not really offend anyone except the sepearists..

    He also would make Harper look like the freaky cowboy wannabe that he is. Dion would also expose Harper's actually foolish ignorance when it comes to both constitutional affairs and international affairs. This is a much better alternative than Ignatieff

  • Frank

    5 years ago

    I think non-Liberals like Dion more than Liberals do. If I was Liberal I'd vote for Dion.

  • G West

    5 years ago

    Have to say I'm in more or less complete agreement with Frank. Dion will become, like Stanfield, one of the 'better' prime ministers we've never had.

    He is far too invisible in the west to have much of a chance. At one point I thought Ignatieff's intellect might make him a good choice but his personal foibles - the way he treated his brother when they were young and the way he's dumped his first wife in order to make another chameleon-like change in his 'direction' as well as his reluctance to commit to Canada if he doesn't win - among other things - have convinced me he'd be a bad choice for the country.

    Rae will win - although I'm not at all convinced he can beat Harper. As someone of the left I’m of mixed mind about his even running. Never been a fan of turncoats since the days of Hazen Argue and Ross Thatcher.

  • ModernSerf

    5 years ago

    Let's hope that Dion will be able to barter his support for a significant role in a new liberal government, in the event that leadership eludes him.

    I must say the liberals are looking good with these four options, hopefully whoever gets in will be able to make good use of their collective talents and the visibility they have all gained with the Canadian public.

    I have often wondered why there is not more emphasis on the top cabinet ministers during a campaign, like there is in the U.S for top White House staff. If it is as I suspect, and due to the lack of national visibility then perhaps this may be an excellent election for the Liberals to try it.

    And G, as much as I agree with almost everything you write, I must respectively disagree in the labelling of Rae as a turncoat, as he never crossed the floor but rather ended his relationship with one party and began a new one with another, something many Canadian have done through the years. I also do not think Rae will win.

    Does anyone have any thoughts of what role Bob Rae will play in the next federal election if he does not win the leadership race?

  • Working Man

    5 years ago

    I am a Liberal and I think that Don is the best chance we have to get Herr Harper out of Ottawa. The Liberal party has a long tradtion of Francophone-Anglophone-Frankophone for its leaders and I think it will uphold it. Party leadership conventions are often upsets. Remember Joe Clark?

  • G West

    5 years ago

    No I don't working man, what did you want to say about him? Joe Clark, I mean.

    Did you think telling us that you're a Liberal would impress anyone. Given what’s gone on in this country and the mess that Liberal greed, self-absorption and incompetence have wrought by creating the conditions where pee wee could actually get elected, learning you’re a Liberal is about as flattering as wearing a red “A” on your tunic was in 16th century New England.

    No wonder you've been trying so hard to convince readers of Tyee that Paul Martin and Jean Chretien weren't responsible for the destruction of the late Government.

    It would be so much easier for a 'Liberal' to take if it could just be blamed on someone else. Someone like Jack Layton. Well, it won’t wash, everyone knows the real truth no matter how much raving you do. I think I'll let hannibal know about the kind of company he's keeping.

    Guess you didn't realize he's a Liberal too, eh?

  • Jack's

    5 years ago

    Dion is certainly, definitely, emphatically my favourite over all the political leaders in Canada today.

  • nightbloom

    5 years ago

    Dion represents to lowest risk option. He's stable, effective, ideologically "neutral" (to "middle Canadian" sensibilities) and well connected to the mainstream policy & public admin. intelligentsia. He's more likely to steady the ship than rock the boat. He's also the least likely to tease separatism back to life by doing backroom power deals...and much less likely to attempt academic or ideological experiments on the Canadian public, which I perceive to be a danger with Ignatieff. This is someone who put Canada's interests first irrespective of the esteem it cost him in his home province. And here's the issue: will Dion's leadership mean or return to the Chretien pattern in which the governing party was severely underrepresented in Quebec.

  • The brain

    5 years ago

    Personally, I like Dion and Dryden. Always have! To me, both men can lead the Libs to a majority in the next election and that is the question Liberals will have to ask when they choose their leader. Who has the best chance of giving Canada a Liberal majority?

    What I liked about Dion is the reality that Canadian parks almost literally doubled in size, especially important watersheds, while Dion was the minister of the environment. His patriotism is also genuine, as is Drydens.

    What I see unfolding in the up and coming leadership convention is a partnership developing between Dion and Dryden with their supporters. I like what Rae has to say, but I don't like his two directorships. To me, it means Rae can be corporately bought, and it is a red flag that the Cons might address in the election. I can't see Rae drumming up clear support in Ontario either, where the Libs must clearly win to form the next government. To that end, I see Dion doing better than Rae in Ontario.

    Ignietieff is the the big question mark. He has the most support for now, it seems, and he is making headlines with his Israel/Lebanon stance. Clearly, Harper has gaffed huge in painting the entire Liberal party as anti Israeli... but I don't think it will hurt his core support much, in other words, his core support hates all things liberal, so the truth doesn't matter here.

    Kennedy is too unknown to me... Rae has two directorships, and that is more than enough for me to not support him. Iglieatieff is too... confusing? And I didn't appreciate his stance of walking into Iraq with the U.S. This would have been a major blunder to any leader who would have done such a thing. Certainly Harper would have. But I must say, Iglieatieff has impressed me this last to days. Does his comments mean however, that he is fit to lead this nation?

    So its back to Dion and Dryden. Both men are clear patriots, clear defenders of Canadian sovereignty and in an age where the U.S. wants to own more and more of us, including the markets we treasure as unique and cost effective to the consumer, healthcare, insurance and banks being the big three in Canada that the U.S. corps want to own and run... well, we need a leader that is a sovereigntist, the opposite of Harper. The times are calling for it. The need is there.

  • G West

    5 years ago

    Agreed, generally, The brain. You too nightbloom - which is kind of nice for a change.

    My problem with Ignatieff is his personal life. I was mildly impressed with the way he drills into problems and actually tries to understand things in a deep way. The profile in the G&M put me off, as did his interview with Anna-Maria Tremonte on the Current.

    He couldn't seem to get his mind around the concept that, in speaking to a national radio audience, he wasn't just being heard by die-hard Liberal supporters. I don't want a PM who thinks the sun rises and sets - and always has - with Liberal ideas.

    The fact that many popular concepts and ideas that make Canada what it is and what it can best be actually come from either the right (Air Canada, the CBC etc) or the left (pensions, health care etc) seems to have no resonance for him - he pretends they are all the 'creation' of his Liberal predecessors.

    That's not the kind of thing I want in a Prime Minister: It sounds too much like Harper in the end; which, in a way, explains how the two of them have ended up bashing on each other over who possesses the Jewish vote.

    I hope Dion wins but I think it will be Rae.

  • G West

    5 years ago

    Should quickly add that I much like Dryden too. Just can't see him with a snowball's chance sans French.

  • The brain

    5 years ago

    G West:

    I can't see Dryden winning either... Its not so much whether Dryden will have a chance to win the leadership, as much as it is who Dryden will support, or Dion for that matter, if or when both hopefuls realize that there is no chance to win.

    Either way, there is one final Liberal leadership debate on Sunday, one that all Liberals should watch closely unless they have found legitamite excuses (of which NFL gameday likely doesn't count).

    To any political junkie, even a Conservative one, this leadership election by the Liberal party is a must watch. On election day, alliances and grudges will be formed with the winners and losers alike. Just as Belinda and Stephen were clearly not going to get along, so too, could the same scenerio present itself here... but I doubt that it will publicly happen. In other words, the Liberal party will at least publicly, become more united, more dedicated to their leader of choice, and more distanced from the party of old with new life breed into old but undying principles... the principles of equality, of minority rights, and the defence of a strong, centralized federal power, the opposite counter to Harpers goal of weakening federal powers to facilitate more power to the provinces and with it, a greater chance of separation from the country of Canada.

    I will say too, that Micheal Ignieateff has blown my mind these past two days with his stance on Israel/Lebanon. He is the only leader hopeful so far, who has stated that war crimes were committed on both sides of the war, which I believe to be true. He is also wrong, I think to paint Hezbollah as an instigator of this war. History tells a tit for tat story of kidnappings by Israel and Lebanon but more particularly by Israel over the last 20 years or so, as well as Israels previous occupation of Lebanon and its aftermath. The main reason for the war wasn't Hezbollah's kidnapping and killing of several Israeli soldiers and civilians... but the change in leadership from Sharone to Ehmud Ohbert, an appointed leader in a democratic nation who has in my view, clearly been responsible for war crimes as the result of his extreme reaction to Hezbollah's own war crime.

    The main difference between the two leaders and their war crimes, of course, is that Hezbollah's leadership and organization isn't political or elected (even though its populist), while Israels government aside from its current leader, is a political party that has been elected and this changes the way the two organizations should be dealt with. And to that end, procecution of such war crimes and crimes in general against humanity should be more local for Hezbollah and more international for Ehmud Ohburt... in a perfect world.

    And while I try to give criticizm where its due, I try to give credit where its due as well. Nightblooms offerings also make sense to me. While harmony is one thing I to, strive for, and while I am often found wanting to look for anything that I can agree with at all from some posters on this site including Nightbloom, it is refreshing when its there.

  • nightbloom

    5 years ago

    Just a sidenote on Rae - I think he has cultivate the image of "elder stateman" but that this is largely smoke & mirrors. His record in elected office is disasterous - he lacks political instinct, is an opportunist with shallow roots, and he will play as an ineffectual anglo poppinjay in Quebec and in the West. I don't see him coming out on top in a campaign to the death against Harper, whereas Dion at the helm of the Liberals would ensure that Harper is locking horns with a bona fide heavyweight in the next election.

    Rae can't do it, and will only ensure that the Liberals remain in opposition. The Ontario unions (especially the teachers) have still not forgiven him for his "Rae Days" (unpaid pre-scheduled closures across the public sector). His premiership was a disaster that practically handed Mike Harris his first landslide.

  • nightbloom

    5 years ago

    ...Incidentally, according to a leaked memo written by the Conservative Party national campaign chief, Bob Rae is the preferred Liberal leadership candidate among Conservative strategists.

    Memo shows Tories fear Ignatieff most
    Would prefer taking on Bob Rae
    Document rates Liberal hopefuls
    http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1159393811656&call_pageid=968332188492&col=968793972154&t=TS_Home

    Here's more on the "Rae Days"
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rae_Days

  • The brain

    5 years ago

    Credit where its due once again, Nightbloom, you are on the mark. Bob Rae's past should have been more than enough to bury him politically. His two directorships is proof enough that he's gorged from the corporate trough and will highly likely do it again, telling me right away that he has too much baggage, never mind the debt he ran up as spend free premier of Ontario. Bob Rae is, in my view, definitely not our man. There are simply better candidates running, than Bob Rae, and I completely agree with you on the fact that Rae would hurt more than help, the chances of the Liberals gaining a majority in this country. Canadians, especially Canadians in Ontario, would have an easier time voting for Ignietieff, Dion, Dryden, even Kennedy, than they would for Bob Rae.

    Rae's experience as a poitician is of the worst kind, and thinking ahead, the Conservatives could easily smear Bob Rae if an election were held soon with Bob's old failed Ontario premier track record, I can see it now. I can't see Ontario embracing Bob Rae and thats where the Liberals most need the votes.

    The Liberals must win Ontario decisively, if they are to form the next government, likely a minority unless Quebec falls over the Libs instead of the PQ. To that end, Iglieateff, Dryden and possibly Dion have the best chances of forming a majority government with strong Ontario support and possible seats in the teens in Quebec. It will be very interesting to see where the alliances will form as the leader hopefuls eventually fall out. It will also be quite interesting to look for any last minute endorsements from liberal MP's and supporters and what, if any, difference it will make, but the focus for the moment, will be tommarrows last debate between the leadership hopefuls. I'm looking for body english between the candidates in terms of alliances, as well as overall performance with this one.

  • sickofrel

    5 years ago

    "Even his translated writing is peppered with multi-syllabic jargon worked into complicated sentences and overlong paragraphs. It's hard to make sense of and harder still to quote effectively."

    Waah! Turn the idiot box off, open a dictionary, and, maybe (gasp!), an encyclopedia, and perhaps you could understand what he is talking about.

    Or is that too much trouble?

  • The brain

    5 years ago

    One final note on Dion. Does anyone think Ambrose, in comparison to Dion as minister of the environment, could be considered to run the country? When comparing the open transparency Dion offered, to the closed, clandestine secrecy of the Harper/Ambrose government, which party, policies and overall general way of doing things is better for this country? None of the environmental groups of this country that don't already agree with the "Republican view" have any ears or ties to the will of the Conservative government, a complete reversal to Dions tenure in Government. The comparison in terms of how both parties do things could not be more contrasted.

    I'm personally appalled at the complete lack of transparency with the Conservative government. The public has the right to know what our elected politicians are thinking... or hiding from the public eye... and currently, our Conservative government is keeping the public out of the loop in terms of input or feedback. Its draconian.

  • Jack's

    5 years ago

    Brain wrote...
    (Ignietieff is the the big question mark. He has the most support for now, it seems, and he is making headlines with his Israel/Lebanon stance. Clearly, Harper has gaffed huge in painting the entire Liberal party as anti Israeli... but I don't think it will hurt his core support much, in other words, his core support hates all things liberal, so the truth doesn't matter here.)

    It is rather humorous to see Iggy and Harper tripping over themselves to not alienate the Jewish influence - which, if alienated, is a death sentence to anyone in politics. Bob Rae was quick to absolve himself of any anti-Israel leanings by declaring that his wife and children are Jewish...as if to say, if you are Jewish you are obligated to support Israel - which may, or may not, be true.

  • hannibal

    5 years ago

    Fact is,is that the Liberal party is rebounding big time in Quebec they have a 5,point lead over the neo-Nazi's at the moment .
    Of course the Parti Qubecois is the front runner with 44 % .
    They will lose the ten seats they gained in the last election as none of those ministers has managed to cobble together a compelling profile in Quebec and the yallowed Herr Harpo to slash programs dear to the hearts of Quiebers .
    Literacy and cuts included for social housing and a court challenges program used to advance minority rights for groups like gays and lesbians. "Most of those cuts are designed to appeal to the Conservative base. They've taken the axe to programs they've long regarded as slush funds for left-leaning groups that don't vote Conservative ... all this means the socially conservative government is getting even."
    Yea, etting even alright these bastards are dead meat in the next election and I donlt care who leads the party .

  • cosmo

    5 years ago

    Some are missing a big point here.

    Yes, Rae will alienate too many in Ontario, and that will help the Conservatives win.

    But Ignatieff also is a divisive candidate, who's own record can't be trusted. He claims to have taught a course on the laws of war but if, so, his own actions condemn him.

    Nobody with a clear understanding of international humanitarian law - and international law generally - could have taken the positions Ignatieff did.

    The Iraq war was as illegal as they come.
    The US uses cluster bombs, landminds, chemical weapons, and turture.

    Ignatieff is a dangerous liability, and some Liberals would go NDP.
    Ignatieff was 4th in BC.

    In this context, Stephan Dion is the only liberal candidate with the intellectual rigour to expose Harper as the fool he is, and get elected. Despite his low profile, he has that Chretienesque 'nice Canadian dude' thing that people can get behind.

    He could take on Harper, and draw support from left-leaning soft-sovereigntists in Quebec. That would leave the sovereigntist movement to the racist nationalist rednecks who wouldn't stand a chance.

  • hannibal

    5 years ago

    Nah, Ontarians are much more likely to remember with distaste the 'Harris Revolution' than they are 'Rae Days'
    I donlt think it will matter one iota .
    Both these gys are intellectual heavy weights with the capacity to eviscerate Herr Harpo on any subject .
    All Harpo has done and is doing is preaching to the choir .
    He is not expanding his electorate .
    "On the contrary, even as the minority government is bombing its own Quebec beachhead, it is also failing to make up for the ground it sacrifices in that province with gains in Ontario. And that, no matter how you look at it, makes Harper's current approach a self-defeating strategy."

  • cosmo

    5 years ago

    I'm not sure Rae is as strong on policy as you think.

    I think he would put politics over principle on international affairs, like Iggy.

  • hannibal

    5 years ago

    Tine will tell .
    Air India inquiry was created by Bob Rae as was the negotiated treaty at Burnt Church . He has worked closely on the SLA file .
    I like his chances as he is a non-ideoloiuge .

  • hannibal

    5 years ago

    In the greater scheme of things Cosmo it matters not what I think but the vast majority of Canadians of the Liberal persuasion .
    All I know is that Herr Harpo's crew got less than one in fourr votes the last election 36.4% and they will lose about 10, points in the next election .
    They may even lose status as official opposition .
    Depends on how it plays out in Quebec .

  • cosmo

    5 years ago

    Yah, I guess you're right.

    And the bottom line is that in BC there is almost a de facto Liberal/NDP coalition, with the NDP getting the rural areas (and Libby and Surry), and the Libs get the urban capuccino crowd.

    I don't think the Conservatives will make gains in B.C.

  • lynn

    5 years ago

    "In this context, Stephan Dion is the only liberal candidate with the intellectual rigour to expose Harper as the fool he is, and get elected. Despite his low profile, he has that Chretienesque 'nice Canadian dude' thing that people can get behind. cosmo"

    Well said, cosmo. I agree with your assessment of Dion and Ignatieff. I've always liked Dion. He is much more forthright, passionate in his beliefs, and most important... strong on sovereignty

    I also agree with the brain and nightbloom's assessment of Rae as well...not surprising at all that Conservatives would want to see Rae win the Liberal leadership.

    Now I'm going to reveal myself as much more cynical than I would like to admit. I was amazed to discover that Mark Marrissen, (Christie Clark's husband) was in charge of Dion's campaign. I think all along "they" have known the power of Dion to win this race...and well, let's just say I think his campaign is being "managed " so he does not get the top job. I hope I am wrong.

  • hannibal

    5 years ago

    Actually Lynn that neo-Nazi document was a plant from Harpo's braintrust(?) .
    They have said from the beginning that they want to face off against Ignatieff as they have him supporting the Afghanistan adventure and he was all for Iraq as well .
    On that issue there is not much difference between the two .
    This was just Nazi mischief released to one French and one Englsih newspaper the day before 'Super' weekend .
    In fact they are terrified of Bob Rae ss he is an elder statesman and his baggage is ancient .
    Ignatieff has no experience in the house and is prone to gaffs .
    Dion is as intelligent as Rae and he tore Bouchard apart with a few sentences in regards to soverignty .
    I like Dion a lot I just can't get over his wall flower appearance . I know that sounds shallow . But ?

  • lynn

    5 years ago

    Thanks hannibal, I didn't realize the leaked document was a plant from Harpo's mini-brain trust....should have guessed that one. :-) I still think Iggy is icky...and I have to be honest, like the brain, I just think Rae is too temptible towards co-option by the corporate world. But hmmm...I like flowers... and dancing ....so I'm going for a whirl with the Dionesque wallflower with a passion for Canada.
    ;-)

  • hannibal

    5 years ago

    Kool Lynn. Gotta admit I am leaning towards Dion more and more everyday .
    I guess he ,really,caught fire today at the Roy Thom[pson Hall debate in TO.
    Guess he blasted both Rae and Iggy .
    To tell the truth I am ;ikeing Dion more and more .
    After all it is what is under the hood that counts .

  • G West

    5 years ago

    Chantal Hebert says Ignatieff is doing very well in Quebec doesn't she hannibal?

    She also says Harper has completely blown his chances at a majority and the the BQ may very well pull the plug on the Conmen early in the new year.

    Do you think the Liberals with a new leader would be ready too?

    I see Rae's big advantage is organizational - I think his ties all across the country are likely stronger than the other two top prospects who will need more time to get the feel of the country. If the Libs think there's going to be an early election I think the party mandarins may well put their weight behind Rae.

  • G West

    5 years ago

    Also, don't you see pee wee's attack on Ignatieff over Israel as an indication that they'd do anything not to have to face him in a general election? Silly question, Harper's not capable of being that subtle.

  • nightbloom

    5 years ago

    Chantal Hébert is a good analyst. What does she say about Dion's stock in Quebec these days?

  • G West

    5 years ago

    This is from her October 13 column:

    But it will take more than one defection to turn the tables on Ignatieff on the core concept of electability. On that terrain, each of his main opponents is still less advantaged than he is.

    Thus, on the basis of electability, many Liberals are staunchly determined to block the ascent of Bob Rae and only one in 10 outside Quebec supports Stéphane Dion.

    The first are convinced that Rae's baggage as former NDP premier will put many Ontario seats at risk in the next election; the second do not think they will do as well as they could under another Quebec leader.

    Self-interest also dictates that few Quebec Liberals will consider the French-challenged Gerard Kennedy as a second choice.

    Regardless of what informal arrangements the candidates make among themselves in the lead-up to the Montreal convention, most delegates will be guided by their own sense of who is the most electable. In Quebec, that sense has already brought Ignatieff the most support. And while his appearance on Radio-Canada's Tout le monde en parle last weekend is producing its share of imprudent controversy, it has also consolidated his position. The million-plus audience that tunes in weekly for the Sunday talk show is not made up of international law specialists. When Ignatieff referred to the accidental killing of civilians in Lebanon as a war crime, many understood him to mean that those deaths were an abomination. Few — including the show host — took his statement to be a legal indictment of Israel.

    Judging from the positive reviews of his overall performance, many viewers came away from the program thinking that they could consider voting for a Liberal party led by Ignatieff.

    It may be that the best way to catch up to Ignatieff between now and the convention would be to turn his Quebec support into a liability in the rest of Canada. That could potentially be achieved by using his sense that the Constitution should recognize Quebec's national character against him, by predicting that he would lead the country into a unity disaster.

    But it is a path that is fraught with peril.

    Next week, the Quebec wing of the party will be asked to formally endorse the concept that Quebec is a nation and commit a future Liberal government to look into steps to have it recognized.

    If the resolution is adopted, federal Liberals from Quebec will endorse a concept that is already a matter of consensus among the province's political parties.

    In Quebec, Ignatieff's overtures are widely seen as the sign of an open mind rather than as a signal that he would quickly convene a constitutional round. Such a round could not take place without the active support of the federalist premier of Quebec who would never venture down that road without the relative certainty that the effort would be successful.

    Given the growing unease over Conservative policies, the Liberals can reasonably hope for gains in Quebec in the next federal election.

    Going after Ignatieff for his overtures to Quebec may be the surest way to overtake him on the way to the top.

    But the price for winning the leadership on that divisive basis could be defeat in the next election.

    A shootout to the finish between Liberals on Quebec would also be doing Prime Minister Stephen Harper's work for him. If Harper had to go to the barricades to fight the notion that Quebec is a nation, it would be the kiss of death of his own election prospects in that province.

  • G West

    5 years ago

    And this, from her Oct 14 column:

    If this keeps up, Stephen Harper can kiss his hopes for a majority in the next election goodbye and, with them, his dream of turning the Conservatives into Canada's natural governing party.

    It would be bad enough for the minority government if today's EKOS poll only confirmed its failure to thrive in voting intentions. At the national level, the Conservative score of 36 per cent basically mirrors the results of the last election.

    That's despite the fact that the Prime Minister has had the stage almost exclusively to himself all summer and that he has been pounding away at new policy announcements since the return of Parliament.

    It's also despite the fact that the Liberals are still leaderless and that their campaign, according to the same poll, has failed to engage one in two voters and to produce a popular front-runner.

    On that particular score, the poll results are at best a mixed bag. The Liberals may be having a four-way race to the top but for the Canadian public, their campaign is primarily a two-way contest between Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff, with Gerard Kennedy and Stéphane Dion making up a somewhat distant second tier.

    And while Rae emerges as the favourite for Liberal leader, it is Ignatieff whom poll respondents find more likely to bring the Liberals to victory in an election. Those contradictory findings could be a sign that when respondents of all political persuasions select their preferred choice, they sometimes do so on the basis of their own partisan interest, by looking for the leader least likely, at least in their minds, to do their own party damage, rather than with an eye to the best chances of the Liberals.

    But if the Liberals, based on the tepid public response to their leadership campaign, are not holding the Conservatives back, then it follows that the government is failing to build efficiently on its gains from the last election through its own actions or lack of them.

    Indeed, even with the same score as last January, the Conservatives are probably further from their goal of a majority than they were on the morning after the last election, and certainly more removed from it than at the peak of their honeymoon last spring.

    In Quebec, the bottom is falling out from under Harper. His party has now dropped to third place, well behind the Bloc Québécois (44 per cent) and four points behind the Liberals (21 per cent).

  • hannibal

    5 years ago

    High G :
    Yea, I agree with Chantal's assessment . Harpo is toast is Quebec and they may have already given up any hopee of forming a majority .
    As I said they will be lucky to hang on to the status of official opposition at this rate .
    Like I said he is flailing about in all directions like a drowning man and he has smelled the ill wind that is going to blow his facist house down . Thank Giod !
    Yea, Stupid,stupid moron sticking his nose into Liberal business .
    Conventional wisdom says when your opposition is imploding and getting bad press you shut the phuque up .
    He did more damage to his cause than to the Liverals as this country knows the Liberal's and knows this is not a oart of their play book .
    Now Danny Williams NFL/LB has read Harpo the riot act over transfer payments and fallow field legislation .
    Williams threatened that the Nazi's wouldn't get one seat if he goes against the wishes of his Province . I love it . And Williams is a conservative ?!

  • hannibal

    5 years ago

    Now that Gilles Duceppe has put his guns on the table or pointed it at Harpos head,your choice Harpo is all done .
    No longer can he threaten a confidence vote over every issue .
    I read that the Senate reform had become an issue. I don't believe that for a second.
    No way areCanadians going to allow this shyte head the opportunity to re-open the Constitution .

  • G West

    5 years ago

    you're right about Danny Williams, hannibal - Pee Wee got a real spanking in St John's. And he should have kept his mouth shut about Ignatieff's minor gaff - I don't think there's any way that the solid support for the Liberals in the GTA is going to be influenced by anything he says at this point.

    More and more I think people realize what a dictator and dissembler the guy is.

    Slowly they are coming to the conclusion that the Liberals, corrupt and complacent as they were, have a better understanding of this country than a man whose primary intellectual preoccupation is Christianist prejudice ...
    This is not the country Harper thought it was: Even his pandering to Chinese voters won't likely do him much good in the end - the urban vote everywhere but the prairies seems solidly Liberal/NDP.

    I just hate hearing the news when another soldier buys the farm for his greed, megalomania and NCC propaganda. The sooner he’s gone the better. Letting him even tough the constitiurion would be a terrible idea.

  • hannibal

    5 years ago

    I know G . I am a grown man and every time I see anothe flag draped casket I shed a tear . It is tearing me up inside .
    I have it on good authority that should Kennedy not do well on the second ballot he will be tossing his ducats to Rae . Which may be enough to put him over the top .
    Yea, Herr Harpo's suck holing to the immigrant community is straight out of Straussian theory as we have both read and know as a fact .
    It took all of an hour for Herr Harpo to tear off his mask of conceit thay they are the Progressive Conservative party to reveal to Canadians that this crew is all guided by and driven by Alliance/Reform .]
    It is just the same old shyte that Ipso Presto Manning has been peddaling for years .
    We must redefine our mission in Afghanistan before too many more good Canadian lads are killed for nothing .

  • freebear

    5 years ago

    My problem with Dionne and was re-confirmed on the weekend during the leadership debate was that he still thinks the Liberal governmnet of 13 years did a good job when it came to the environment!!!!!

    Running on his record!

    Yet what did he do amongst the corruption and scandal? Not a peep!

  • G West

    5 years ago

    hannibal
    2 more interesting pieces on the weekend in the Star - I'll post them in the other place.

  • Alcibiades

    5 years ago

    Haven't seen you around much lately nightbloom. I did see a post or two on this thread at the weekend so I hope you'll stumble across this.

    It's a piece from the latest Foreign Affairs on the increasing role of 'religion' in American public life.

    Thought you might be interested:
    http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20060901faessay85504/walter-russell-mead/god-s-country.html

  • Orchard

    5 years ago

    Nice work on this article.

    I was hoping that someone might do a little probing into Dion's platform and what he is proposing. I think that there is a general "understanding gap" between what he is proposing and what people know.

    Thanks,

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