What’s Next for the Parties. And the Public

Two years ago, BC NDP Leader David Eby described the party’s narrow win in the October election as a “political near-death experience.”

On Saturday he took it a step further, as the snap election call proved a disastrous blunder.

Eby’s leadership is over, NDP support has plummeted, and the Conservative Party of BC has a strong majority government for the next four years.

The NDP went from 47 seats to 27 and the Conservatives from 29 to 64, with the Greens staying at two.

The election call ran into a perfect storm. It was sleazy, designed opportunistically to send voters to the polls when the Conservatives had no leader. Eby and the NDP could never come up with a convincing reason the election was needed.

And the government’s record under Eby did not impress voters. The NDP could point to few genuine achievements, and most problems — from health-care gaps to affordability to jobs to deficits — seemed worse.

The Conservatives, after two years of chaos, clown shows and confusion, managed to unite quickly around Lorne Doerkson, who projected stability and common sense. The alternatives — CentreBC and the cringe OneBC — posed no vote-split threat, each taking less than two per cent of the vote. CentreBC Leader Elenore Sturko came fourth in her riding of Surrey South with 10.1 per cent of the vote. OneBC’s Dallas Brodie finished fifth in Vancouver-Quilchena with four per cent of the vote.

Emily Lowan and some strong Green candidates performed well during the campaign but still won only two seats.

And voters who had held their noses and voted NDP as the least-bad alternative in past elections were unwilling to do it again. The NDP’s desperate late-campaign pleas that people not vote Green rang hollow, since the NDP had created the situation with the unnecessary call.

The result was the best showing of the Conservatives — or their previous centre-right incarnations — since the 2001 election, with 48 per cent of the popular vote. And the worst for the NDP with 37 per cent support. The Greens, at 11 per cent, improved on their 2024 share but didn’t make a breakthrough.

There’s another important and alarming number. Turnout was 48 per cent, down from 59 per cent in 2024 and a record low. More than half the eligible voters looked at the options and decided to skip this election.

Now what?

The NDP has not had a real leadership competition since 2011 when Adrian Dix won. John Horgan was acclaimed in 2014 after Mike Farnworth dropped out of the race, and Eby was acclaimed in 2022 after the party disqualified Anjali Appadurai, his only competitor.

It’s an important moment. The NDP has lost touch with many progressive voters — as shown by the desperate effort to stop people voting Green, low turnout and dismal results.

The leadership race will be an important chance to ensure the party stands for something and bring in new members and new ideas.

The Greens have a chance to build on their success. Lowan proved an effective leader and the party held its two seats. And the Green movement could be much helped if Pete Fry proves an effective mayor in Vancouver.

The big questions are what Doerkson will do with his large majority over the next four years and whether he can hold the party together.

The Conservatives’ large majority makes the latter task much easier. Premiers — unlike opposition leaders — have lots of carrots and sticks at their disposal to keep MLAs in line. Between cabinet ministers and parliamentary secretaries and committee chairs, there are some 40 positions with extra pay and prestige to hand out. Being on the premier’s good side can result in benefits for an MLA’s riding. And there is much more to lose for an MLA who goes rogue when their party is in power, especially with a large majority.

Plus, Doerkson seems to be genuinely liked by the MLAs he has worked with over the last six years.

How he will govern is a harder question. The Conservatives appear to have shed their extreme social conservative members, but the party base remains unpredictable. The first test will be to amend the party’s constitution, which now bars Doerkson, as an interim leader, from taking the top job.

Beyond that, it’s uncertain. The Conservatives have vowed to repeal the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous People Act but haven’t been clear how they will deal with Indigenous rights without getting tangled in court cases. They’ve promised tax cuts but haven’t offered any credible plan for offsetting expense reductions. SOGI 123, optional school learning materials on LGBTQ2S+ issues, is on the Conservative chopping block, but their overall approach to rights is unclear.

Doerkson and company have a clear mandate. What they will do with it remains uncertain.