Opinion

A Tyee Series

Charting the Votes for Hedy Fry

Vancouver Centre's Grit incumbent faces strong foes -- and the Dion factor.

By Will McMartin, 6 Oct 2008, TheTyee.ca

Graph of Van Centre Electoral Results

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Also in this series:
Charting the Votes: Canada's Federal Election '08

[Editor's note: This is the latest of a new feature on The Tyee through election day: Charting the Votes. In charts and prose, veteran political analyst Will McMartin breaks down the important factors in key B.C. races.]

It's just one of 36 federal ridings in British Columbia, yet Vancouver Centre usually gets an inordinate amount of news-media attention in general election campaigns.

In part that's due to the high-profile, politically or socially prominent candidates who frequently contest the riding. And that is especially true in the 2008 general election, as at least three well-known challengers have come forward with bids to knock off the five-term incumbent, Liberal MP Hedy Fry.

Fry's rivals in the current campaign include Lorne Mayencourt, formerly the B.C. Liberal MLA for Vancouver-Burrard, who resigned his provincial seat to run federally as a Conservative; Michael Byers, a University of B.C. political science professor representing the New Democrats; and Adriane Carr, the Green gadabout who is making her fourth bid in seven years for a provincial or federal seat.

Fry ran strong in past four elections

Despite having what might charitably be described as a mediocre record in office, Fry -- a physician and one-time president of the B.C. Medical Association -- has enjoyed a virtual lock on Vancouver Centre since 1993. That was the year she upset Kim Campbell, the riding's incumbent Progressive Conservative MP and then Canada's first female prime minister.

The newcomer got 20,095 votes in that contest, almost 4,000 ahead of runner-up Campbell. Fry's share of the popular vote was just under one in three, although that low figure can be explained by the 13-candidate field that featured relatively strong showings by the Liberal (31.1 per cent), Progressive Conservative (25.2 per cent), Reform (17.4 per cent), NDP (15.2 per cent) and National Party (8 per cent) candidates.

Over the last four general elections, Fry has garnered votes from better than two of every five Vancouver Centre voters: 40.8 per cent in 1997, 42.3 per cent in 2000, 40.3 per cent in 2004, and 43.8 per cent in 2006.

Her smallest margin of victory, 4,230 votes, was in 2004; the other contests saw her twice finish ahead of her rivals by more than 9,300 votes, and once by over 8,600.

Interestingly, no single party over the last decade and a half has provided Fry's greatest competition. After Campbell, the Progressive Conservative leader, finished second in 1993, the closet challenger four years later was a Reform candidate, engineer Richard Farbridge. (Bill Siksay, now a NDP MP in Burnaby-Douglas, finished third in the 1997 contest.)

A Canadian Alliance candidate, businessman John Mortimer, was runner-up in 2000, a New Democrat, SFU Prof. Kennedy Stewart, got support from nearly one-in-three Vancouver Centre voters in 2004.

Two years ago, Fry handily trounced Svend Robinson, the veteran NDP parliamentarian, by more than 15 percentage points.

Down to the wire

Given her successful track record over the last 15 years, Fry must be favoured to retain the seat in the current general election. However, she faces the possibility of being dragged down by the Liberals' feeble national campaign and under-whelming performance of party leader Stephane Dion. Fry could probably win with anything greater than 35 per cent of the vote; any less and her seat is in jeopardy.

Over the last two general elections, the NDP vote-share in Vancouver Centre has averaged about 30 per cent, the Conservatives have held roughly 20 per cent, and the Greens have garnered less than seven percent.

Should Fry's vote-share tumble into the low 30s, the New Democrats appear best positioned to win the riding. However, with recent public opinion polls showing Tory strength on the upswing in B.C., it's possible that the Conservatives could prevail in a tight three-cornered contest. A Green victory, to put it kindly, is a longshot.

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Veteran political analyst Will McMartin is a Tyee contributing editor.

12 Comments:

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  • Luke Skywalker

    3 years ago

    Vancouver Centre...

    1. Has historically been held by either a Liberal or a "Progressive" Conservative.

    2. Was the last Liberal bastion west of Winnipeg during the 1979 election as the Liberals only hold (Art Phillips).

    The current incarnation of the federal Conservatives is "Reform" tinged and it's somewhat of an anethma for Vancouverites to vote for the current "version" of the Reforma-Tories in socially liberal City of Vancouver.

    That "Reform" Conservative tinge also propelled Liberal wins in neighbouring Richmond, the North Shore, and "almost" in the Burnaby-Douglas riding in 2004 and 2006.

    Yes the "Tories" came close in the Vancouver Quadra by-election, likely due to Liberal complacency with the huge Liberal winning margin in 2006 in conjunction with a lousy candidate.

    As for Vancouver Centre, the NDP came closest in 1988 when it obtained its highest vote share ever in BC, placing first at 37% but still no cigar.

    More importantly, the demographics in the riding are continually changing in favour of the centre/ centre-right with the owner-occupier condo towers in Coal Harbour/Yaletown/North False Creek/ Broadway areas.

    The NDP's Mike Byers recent statement that the Alberta oil sands should be shut down was somewhat bizarre and seemed out in left field and certainly didn't help his candidacy with the middle-of-the-road voter.

    Prediction: Liberal hold with the NDP again obtaining 2nd place.

  • David Huntley

    3 years ago

    Read Byers' "Intent for a Nation"

    Everyone should read Michael Byers' book "Intent for a Nation". He is clearly passionate about Canada and directing the country on a course which we should all be in favour of, and that the rest of the world would admire and respect us for.
    Then one will vote for him as the kind of person we want to direct the future of Canada.
    (This has nothing to do with the party he is running for).

  • Budd Campbell

    3 years ago

    Luke Skywalker: What about Vance Campbell???

    Luke:

    As you well know, businessman, tobacco advocate and Funcouver spokesman Vance Campbell has been a visible and influential Fry supporter in past elections. He has now gone over to Lorne Mayencourt. What effect does this have on Fry's chances? Is Campbell's move a singular one, or did a lot of other entertainment business types leave with him?

  • Luke Skywalker

    3 years ago

    Budd...

    Perhaps Vance and Mayencourt have a personal relationship. Who knows. In that same vein, former Vancouver mayor Phillip Owen is Fry's campaign chair and he has always been identified with the old PC's.

    And then Mary Woo Sims, 2006 NDP candidate for Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam has also publicly come out in support of Fry.

    BTW, Sherry Shaghaghi, 2006 NDP candidate for North Vancouver, has also publicly come out in support of Liberal Don Bell.

    Politics makes strange bedfellows.

  • Dave2

    3 years ago

    Ok, if we're going to use

    Ok, if we're going to use words like "historically", then it's not true that only _Progressive_ Conservatives have won in Vancouver Centre...H.H. Stevens jumps to mind.

    >As for Vancouver Centre, the NDP came closest in 1988

    The CCF took it once, in 1948. Yes, a long time ago, but '48 is about as relevent to '08 as '88 is. Not much.

  • Budd Campbell

    3 years ago

    Woo-Sims

    And then Mary Woo Sims, 2006 NDP candidate for Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam has also publicly come out in support of Fry.

    When did this happen? What's your source on this development?

  • Luke Skywalker

    3 years ago

    Budd...

    From Fry's own campaign website:

    Quote:
    Hedy is a personal friend of mine and I think she's done a fabulous job. Her constituents must feel that way too since they've re-elected her time after time."
    - Mary-Woo Sims, Social Justice Activist and former Chief Commissioner of the British Columbia Human Rights Commission

  • Budd Campbell

    3 years ago

    Woo-Sims did NOT say vote for a "sorry-ass MP"

    Luke, I saw this statement myself on the Fry site. If you actually read it, instead of doing the usual campaign pass-it-on routine, you'll see it's not a "vote for" or "I support" type of endorsement.

    It recognizes Fry's string of past wins, true enough, and describes her as a friend. But there's nothing more, no recommendation for October 14th.

    Actually, it's this kind of political over-reaching which has been one of Fry's weak points over the years, although never enough to cause her to loose. Till this year. My relative, an accomplished young female professional living in Coal Harbour, somewhat uncharitably describes Fry as a "sorry ass MP". This kind of old fashioned trickery isn't going to help with that kind of image problem.

    Maybe Fry is going to have to dig deep and bring back Vance Campbell and the Funcouver crowd? After all, it must have been a very, very major body blow to the team's morale when Campbell announced his departure to the Mayencourt camp.

  • Luke Skywalker

    3 years ago

    Budd...

    Sims statement is on the "endorsement" page. Ya better get on the horn to Sims to get rid of it then! That aside, I'm no fan of Fry either and for that matter... Byers (arrogant with silly personal policy statements), Carr (flakey), and Mayencourt (flakey).

    Don Davies would have made a much better fit for the NDP in Van Centre. (both Byers and Davies don't live in the riding although that's not too important).

    It wouldn't matter much anyway as the Liberal brand is still very strong and resilient within the City of Vancouver.

    As for your relative in Coal Harbour... I also know a young, single female, lower-middle income, who is a CAW member living on Grandview Slopes. Perfect NDP demographics you'd think?? She voted Con in the advanced polling last Friday. I was floored.

  • murdock

    3 years ago

    Anyone else, please.

    Hedy Fry has achieved nothing.

    Nothing as an MP.

    Please, any other candidate will do.

    Will it happen?

    I think not.

    For some reason the electorate of Vancouver Centre 'like' her.

    I'll not understand why for she has had nothing of great account to achieve...perhaps that is what they want...more nothing.

  • Budd Campbell

    3 years ago

    WHAT? The "Liberal brand"? What year was that?

    It wouldn't matter much anyway as the Liberal brand is still very strong and resilient within the City of Vancouver.

    I heard the same malarkey about Quadra prior to the byelection. Since then this is the first time anyone has said this.

  • Geof

    3 years ago

    Copyright Reform

    To their great credit, both Mr Byers and the Green Party (as a party) have committed to thoughtful copyright reform. With their lately-introduced platform, the Conservatives have announced their intention to bull ahead with their ill-considered bill, which was roundly criticized by artists, innovators, and tens of thousands of Canadians. I would hope Ms Fry would also take the pledge (especially since culture is her field).

    Here is what Mr Byers and the Greens support:

    . . . a balanced approach to copyright reform that reflects the views of all Canadians by pledging:

    1. To respect the rights of creators and consumers.

    2. Not to support any copyright bill that undermines or weakens the Copyright Act’s users rights.

    3. To fully consult with Canadians before introducing any copyright reform bill and to conduct inclusive, national hearings on any tabled bill.

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