NDP Has History on Its Side, But Not Smart Messaging
In BC races, diving economies usually turf governments.
Bennett's Socreds were only governing party to gain seats in bad times -- 26 years ago.
If history is a guide to the future, the current economic downturn means that B.C. will have a new government on May 12. That's because the time B.C. governments most often are defeated at the polls is when a general election and an economic downturn coincide.
Since 1903, when political parties made their first official appearance in provincial tilts, eight B.C. governments have been turfed from office. Those losses occurred in 1916, 1928, 1933, 1952, 1972, 1975, 1991 and 2001. (Actually, the governments doomed to defeat in 1933 and 1952 disintegrated on the eve of facing the electorate.)
On three occasions -- 1928, 1952 and 1972 -- the overthrown governments had been in power for more than a decade and were seen by many voters as long-in-the-tooth and out-of-touch. And each, to varying degrees, was wracked by internal dissent. Simply, B.C. voters believed it was time for a change.
But the other five times that B.C. governments were kicked to the curb, the province (or Canada, or our largest trading partner, the United States) was either on the cusp of, or deep in the midst of, an economic recession.
This is not to say that the economy was the sole issue in any of these five general elections -- in 1916, 1933, 1975, 1991 and 2001 -- but it was an important factor in each. Dire economic circumstances exacerbated the electoral challenges facing already beleaguered governments.
Why Liberals need rare bit of luck
We can look at the situation another way: have any B.C. governments won re-election when the province has been hit, or is about to be, by an economic downturn? Just three administrations meet this criteria: the Liberals in 1920 and 1937, and Social Credit in 1983.
Yet a closer look shows that in the first two tilts, the government was returned with a much-reduced majority over a divided opposition. In 1920, John Oliver's Liberals lost 11 seats and saw their 26-seat majority cut to just three. Liberal Premier Duff Pattullo was re-elected in 1937, but his government lost three seats and his legislative majority was reduced from 22 to 14.
Just once, when Bill Bennett's Social Credit party won re-election in 1983, has a government been returned with an enhanced legislative majority during an economic downturn. In that election, Bennett's Socreds picked up four new seats, which boosted their majority in the House from five to 13.
In sum, on eight occasions, B.C. governments have faced voters during difficult economic times. Five times the administration was defeated, and twice more won re-election with a much-reduced majority. Just once, in 1983, has a government increased its legislative majority.
It is that latter, sole example in 1983 that the B.C. Liberals -- as well as their supporters, plus many members of the news media -- point to as the paradigm for their re-election in 2009. History suggests that such a feat is akin to drawing to an inside straight: not impossible, but very rare.
Bill Bennett redux?
As the foregoing examples from 1920 and 1937 illustrate, it's possible for a sitting government to lose seats but still be returned to power. Thanks to redistribution, such a scenario in 2009 appears to be almost out of reach for the B.C. Liberals.
Four years ago, Campbell's Liberals won 46 of the legislative assembly's 79 seats. Then, in a by-election last October, the government lost Vancouver-Burrard, which cut their seat total at dissolution to 45.
For the general election now underway, six new ridings have been added to the electoral map. To win a majority, a party must capture at least 43 of 85 seats.
Because Gordon Campbell and the B.C. Liberals held 45 seats at dissolution, and must retain a minimum of 43 to maintain their legislative majority, it follows that the Campbell government can afford to lose no more than two seats they currently hold if they are to remain in office.
In this light, the Campbell Liberals' enthusiasm for Social Credit's electoral success in 1983 is understandable. Simply, nearly the only scenario by which the B.C. Liberals can retain power is to replicate what Bill Bennett did 26 years ago: pick up new government seats in the teeth of a severe economic downturn.
Flood of red ink
So, the current economic climate should assist Carole James and her New Democrats in their quest to defeat the Campbell Liberals, right? Well, most political pundits disagree, with one -- television reporter Keith Baldrey -- going so far as to opine that the NDP during the election "want[s] to talk about anything other than the economy."
How can that be? In March, the number of unemployed British Columbians jumped up to 173,000, the highest number in six years. The unemployment rate, as low as 4.2 per cent in the spring of 2008, has exploded to 7.4 per cent. The number of British Columbians receiving Employment Insurance benefits in January was 56,100 -- up 47.7 per cent from a year earlier.
Bankruptcies are shooting skyward, and a variety of industries -- notably construction, forestry, mining, real estate and tourism -- are struggling for survival. And, remarkably, the deficit-averse Campbell government this spring amended its balanced-budget legislation so as to run deficits in the current and next fiscal years.
Don't B.C. voters believe that it's time for a change? The answer, if current public opinion polls are accurate, is, no.
NDP's silver platter
So, how to explain James's New Democrats' lack of credibility on economic issues? Here are three examples.
First, consider the party's 2005 election platform, prepared under James's direction. Ten of 73 pages were devoted to the economy, but the section eschewed new ideas or innovative thinking, and instead reiterated age-old NDP nostrums -- resolving Aboriginal land claims, restricting raw-log exports, increasing the minimum wage and strengthening the agricultural land reserve -- and restated criticisms of the Campbell government.
Second, three years ago, James surveyed her caucus and decided that Jenny Kwan was the best candidate to serve as economic-development critic. The Vancouver-Mount Pleasant MLA may well have credibility on many issues, but B.C.'s economy is not one of them. (Any who disagree may peruse Hansard and post below examples of Kwan's economic acumen.)
Third, last October, the NDP leader appeared on province-wide television to rebut Gordon Campbell's earlier TV address on the worsening global economy. The event gave James yet another opportunity to display a firm grasp of economic issues and offer some innovative ideas.
She failed to do either, mostly repeating her party's opposition to the Campbell government's pay increases for senior bureaucrats, criticizing cost overruns at the Vancouver convention centre, and insisting the government reduce its advertising budget. And, again, there was a recitation of long-standing NDP promises: curtailment of raw log exports, expansion of grants for post-secondary students, and increased funding for public transit.
The current economic downturn has been delivered to the NDP on a silver platter. In the event that James and her New Democrats fail to win the May 12 general election, they'll have no one to blame but themselves.
Related Tyee stories:
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BC Liberals hold more safe seats, but 'green suburban swingers' could lift New Dems into power. - Horrors, says Hansen, imagine NDP's James presiding over Olympics
- Bill Bennett Reconsidered
Reviewed: Bill Bennett: A Mandarin's View
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74
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Frank
2 years ago
The last line is wrong Will
"In March, the number of unemployed British Columbians jumped up to 173,000, the highest number in six years. The unemployment rate, as low as 4.2 per cent in the spring of 2008, has exploded to 7.4 per cent. The number of British Columbians receiving Employment Insurance benefits in January was 56,100 -- up 47.7 per cent from a year earlier."
So if I understand this correctly, James is "weak" on the economy and Campbell, in spite of the above numbers, is "strong"?
That's like saying Campbell is "strong" on homelessness and child poverty.
If the Liberals win re-election the people of BC have no one to blame but themselves.
realisticman
2 years ago
Perspective
British Columbia is actually doing better than many places. Something must be going right. Looking around at our neighbours and elsewhere it's quite easy to see that BC is a bit better than, Average.
" 7.9 per cent European Union average "
4/14/2009
Source ::: FINANCIAL TIMES
http://tiny.cc/IhKHh
"Alberta employment figures fall further and faster than other provinces.
When it comes to employment, new figures from Statistics Canada show that Alberta has fallen further and faster over the past six months than any other province."
http://tiny.cc/yEFT9
"Washington state reports its March jobs data on Tuesday. It had an unemployment rate of 8.4 percent in February."
http://tiny.cc/YcIs3
"Oregon’s unemployment rate jumps from 10.7% to 12.1% in only one month!"
http://www.examiner.com/x-6323-Portland-Top-News-Examiner~y2009m4d13-Oregons-unemployment-rate-jumps-from-107-to-121-in-only-one-month
"According to a press release this week from the Oregon State Employment Division, the Oregon unemployment rate rose almost 2% from February to March, at a steady incline since 9 months ago when June reported 5.9%. The United States as a whole has seen a dramatic increase as well, but is currently holding steady at 8.5%."
All the above examples quoted are from this week. Everywhere in the world is the same. Perhaps Frank can cite some examples of places that show no increased unemployment numbers and tell us why.
weasel
2 years ago
I remember 1983
It's true that the Socreds won in 1983. However they won by ignoring Solidarity to their peril. What are the Liberals slash Socreds ignoring that will ultimately defeat them? And as for imagining Carole James as Premier, I remember a very effective ad from the Conservatives in the election before last that had a little kid repeating, "Prime Minister Stephen Harper". So, how about "Premier Carole James?" How about it?
realisticman
2 years ago
The Good Old Days
Remember those good old days, when the Environment was a major issue and the NDP was there for the planet? Pollution was bad and CO2 emissions were to blame for Global Climate Change. We were told that gas was too cheap and we should drive less and in smaller vehicles. Heck, even if the tiny 2.4 cents a litre Liberal tax on gasoline were 50 times as much, adding $1.20 to each and every litre, we would only then be approaching what people pay for gas in Europe!
The environmentalists that have criticized the NDP on their promised canceling of the Campbell Liberals Carbon Tax should be praised for their integrity. Atr least they have principles. They knew that many NDP supporters would scream bloody murder at them for accepting the fact that Gordon Campbell and the Liberals have faced the reality and decided to do something about GHG emissions. The public wanted that from their government. That's what government is supposed to do; listen to what the people want and show leadership.
Many in the NDP must have lost some faith in the party now. The environment used be a top issue Opposing just to oppose is proving to be old-style politics that are not wanted.
http://tiny.cc/gK6rv
Frank
2 years ago
realisticman
"Perhaps Frank can cite some examples of places that show no increased unemployment numbers and tell us why."
Sure old bean, all you have to do is ask politely and I grant you your wish.
StatsCan :
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/subjects-sujets/labour-travail/lfs-epa/lfs-epa-eng.htm
Apparently BC is doing the worst of all 10 provinces. Oregon, as you may or may not be aware, isn't part of Canada however much they wish to be, whereas places like PEI, Newfoundland, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are. And in those provinces the declines were either negligible (Sask and Man) or there were no losses at all (PEI and Nfld).
I realize we've all heard about how terrible it is in Ontario and how this is the fault of overpaid auto workers but the fact is BC is doing worse.
Now why would BC be leading Canada in unemployment? Its a question BC'ers such as yourself should be asking themselves.
Frank
2 years ago
BC is the worst performer in Canada
The following are notable quotes from the StatsCan article linked above :
"Employment fell in several provinces in March, with the largest declines in British Columbia (-23,000), Alberta (-15,000) and Ontario (-11,000).
Since October, these three provinces also had the fastest rate of employment decreases.British Columbia's employment fell by 23,000 in March.
British Columbia's employment fell by 23,000 in March. This brings total employment losses to 69,000 (-3.0%) since October 2008, largely driven by decreases in construction and manufacturing. Over the same period, British Columbia has seen its unemployment rate climb 2.2 percentage points to 7.4% in March.
Following a large decline in February, employment in Alberta fell a further 15,000 in March, pushing the unemployment rate up to 5.8%. Since October, employment losses have totalled 48,000 (-2.4%), mainly in the goods-producing sector.
Manitoba's employment also fell in March (-4,000), bringing the unemployment rate up 0.3 percentage points to 5.1%.
In March, employment in Saskatchewan declined by 3,000. Despite the loss in March, employment in this province is unchanged compared with October 2008. The unemployment rate, at 4.7% in March, has increased by 0.8 percentage points since October.
Despite increases in their unemployment rates, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Alberta continue to have the lowest unemployment rates in the country.
Employment in Ontario edged down by 11,000 in March. Since October, declines have totalled 171,000 (-2.5%), mostly in full-time work. Although the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.7% in March, it has risen 2.0 percentage points since October, an increase similar to that of British Columbia and Alberta.
In Quebec, although employment was little changed in March, the unemployment rate increased 0.4 percentage points to 8.3%, as more people entered the labour market. Employment has decreased by 55,000 (-1.4%) since October, and the unemployment rate has increased by 1.1 percentage points.
The only other province with a notable employment decline in March was Nova Scotia, down 3,000.
Frank
2 years ago
Enviros
"... for accepting the fact that Gordon Campbell and the Liberals have faced the reality and decided to do something about GHG emissions."
Lacking balance as always I see.
So how much have GHG emissions been reduced under Gordon "Green" Campbell's tenure?
And please provide a real source.
jimmy_laroux
2 years ago
@ realisticman
BC has has the greatest increase in unemployment rate of any province over the last 4 months, according to Statistics Canada:
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/090409/dq090409a-eng.htm
http://tiny.cc/E6VwU
daveallen
2 years ago
MediaWatch Bias Scorecard LIB-1 NDP-2
This one is interesting but in my opinion shows a sight bias for the Liberals.
I have today made a commitment to follow The TYEE "BC election reporting" up until the election on May 12.
My bias scorecard will be clearly a simple record of the read articles and their bias in a LIB vs NDP format as per the subject of this message.
This scoring is based on my opinion and does not reflect the opinion of anyone in my family, my company or the organizations which I belong to.
If anyone wants or needs to comment to me directly I am
Spam accepted, although not preferred.
G West
2 years ago
I don't understand your scoring daveallen
Please clarify.
Van Isle
2 years ago
Dave Allen, is that the same
Dave Allen, is that the same Dave Allen the Irish comedian who use to do his routine with 2 barstools, 1 for himself to sit on, and the other where he set out his ashtray, lighter, cigaretts, and a pint of beer. His routine was to just to tell jokes all night and I thought the man was brilliant cuz he made you think. Are you the same man, sir?
Frank
2 years ago
Bias in the media
Of course, dave is looking for bias in a website rather than the big media.
CKNW : Bill Good, Cristy Clark, and that guy from Winnipeg. Very Pro-Liberal
The Province : Editors and Michael Smyth would rather choke than write anything positive about the NDP. Bias : they make realisticman look like a socialist.
The Sun : Editors, ex-Fraser Institute boys, Palmer, Enchin and the premier's brother. Off the charts in favour of the Liberals.
Overall : Can't wait for Can-West to go bankrupt.
realisticman
2 years ago
Frank
Re. your question, "Gordon "Green" Campbell". It's all here Frank. I'm busy but you can do the math.
B.C.'s scrappage plan really works
Jeremy Cato, 01/04/09
"Toyota Canada managing director Stephen Beatty says they can if designed correctly. He points to the B.C. Scrap-it program in British Columbia (http://www.scrapit.ca/) as an approach that gets it right on the environmental front AND the economic one.
Dennis Ragoza, CEO of the program, certainly agrees that the $300 incentive is a non-starter with the public; it's just not enough. He should know. B.C. Scrap-it administers the $300 federal scheme and since it was introduced on January 30 of this year, exactly two people have taken the money in B.C.
On the other hands, B.C. Scrap-it, a provincial program, has been overwhelmed with interest. Why? That's simple. The B.C. program offers up to $2,250 for polluting clunkers that are crushed and taken off the road.
The key point is that the payouts are based on the size of the greenhouse gas benefit. That is, the worst polluters are worth the most to owners who scrap them. If your old car, when scrapped, offers a fairly low greenhouse gas reduction, then you get $750 applied to the purchase of a new vehicle. Medium benefit, $1,250 and high greenhouse gas benefit, $2,250. "
http://tiny.cc/htCvY
realisticman
2 years ago
Frank
You must have posted the wrong study. I said, "Perhaps Frank can cite some examples of places that show no increased unemployment numbers and tell us why.". The key point Frank is 'no' increases. What you posted confirms my point, that all places are experiencing job losses and that BC has not suffered as much as most.
Yes, it's cute to remind me that Oregon is not in Canada Frank but in this world we we in BC are dependent on export markets for the sale of our largest export - lumber, we cannot stick our heads in the sand and pretend that we exist in a bubble. Oregon and Washington not only constitute our market for our earnings which help pay for our social programmes but they also have substantial lumber industries too.
realisticman
2 years ago
jimmy
Yes Jimmy there have been large job losses but get a perspective; BC had record-low unemployment numbers under the Campbell Liberals until Wall Street and the rest of world melted down. Fortunately, under the Liberals the economy has diversified somewhat and the unemployment numbers today are not as bad as all of Europe and the USA.
Cheer up!
Frank
2 years ago
realisticman
"The key point Frank is 'no' increases. What you posted confirms my point, that all places are experiencing job losses"
Ah, when you studied Canadian provinces in school you must have heard we have 10 of them? Some provinces are experiencing very little or no job losses, unlike BC.
"and that BC has not suffered as much as most"
I've heard basic math skills are a real problem at the Public Affairs Bureau.
Because according to StatsCan, BC has suffered the worst. If you disagree with their study by all means forward your concerns on to them and let us know how that goes. I think it'll go the same way as your lawsuit against reality but that's just me.
Frank
2 years ago
realisticman
Still waiting for you to provide the numbers showing greenhouse gas emissions declined under Gordon "Green" Campbell.
G West
2 years ago
Sorry R/Man
YOU missed the point.
Positive and worthwhile scrap-it programs offer cash for taking a car off the road and NOT going to the CEO's friends in the New Car Dealers Association of BC to buy a new one -
Furthermore, the BC Scrap-it program requires that the scrapped cars be driven to Surrey from the rest of the province - great idea that...and then, presto changeo, the company that is contracted to dispose of the cars for scrap is on Vancouver Island.
I'm surprised they haven't gotten the ICBC dept of phony write-offs involved too.
Care to discuss how much those little numbers contribute to greenhouse gases...
As for the export market and the softwood lumber deal, I suggest you re-visit Campbell and Emerson's statements about peace across the border and take them to the provinces which were hit by another demand for duties last week from the US.
Lately (in fact for the last several years), the forest industry hasn't been contributing dick to social programs in this province. Please, don't forget that corporations only pay taxes when they make a profit....and actually employ people.
The downturn in BC is just starting - and it'll be longer and hit harder than in the rest of Canada - even Alberta has a more responsible budget forecast that BC has.
Perhaps you missed this criticism of cash for cars programs last summer while you were on a world tour:
http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/08/08/no-cash-for-clunkers/?pagemode=print
Frank
2 years ago
From George Monbiot
http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2009/03/10/scrap-it/
"So prepare yourselves, ladies and gentlemen, for the worst scam of all. It’s another reward for failure, but this one offers no prospect of rescuing the economy. Thanks to its cunning disguise as an environmental measure, we seem willing to be conned. I want to show you why we should resist it.
I’m talking about the scrappage payments being proposed by almost everyone linked to the motor industry: the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders(1), most of the big car firms(2), the AA(3) and the unions."
"A paper published in 2000 by the journal Transportation Research comes to even grimmer conclusions: that replacing old cars with new ones increases carbon pollution(12). Because between 15 and 20% of a car’s emissions are produced during its manufacture, the optimal age for a car, the paper says, is 19 years."
Ergo : Campbell can add one more failure to his long list.
realisticman
2 years ago
Frank
You get cuter and cuter, or is that more cute and then more cute even more? I can understand your difficulty in providing data showing even one place that has recently had increased employment. I also appreciate that you would like to see the environment file played with into arcane trivia and my salient points pushed further up the thread.
I know, there's a war on now and you're gonna fight with all the tools you got. Common sense says that the people of British Columbia deserve a reasonable discussion of the points. They should also be allowed a perspective on where they are and how they compare to the rest of the world.
Do you think that Gordon Campbell personally directed BC Hydro to become involved in this Green initiative? Some say he runs everything.
"City and B.C. Hydro to test 'car of the future'
By Ian Austin, The Province April 7, 2009
Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson piloted a green machine in a brilliant red hue to a press conference yesterday.
Robertson was behind the wheel of a right-hand-drive Mitsubishi iMiEV that he called another innovation in Vancouver's quest to become the world's greenest city.
"It's very exciting to be here today," said Robertson. "In the City of Vancouver, less than 10 per cent of our trips are greater than 30 kilometres.
"We see great potential and great promise."
Yesterday's fanfare announced that the City of Vancouver and B.C. Hydro will each test one of the plug-in electric vehicles..."
http://www.theprovince.com/Technology/Mayor+plugs+plug/1471758/story.html
realisticman
2 years ago
Nevertheless
Don't forget to read this front page story:
"...a group of environmentalists called a news conference yesterday to effectively endorse the Liberals' climate-change agenda, their strategy was to paint the New Democrats as job killers."
http://tiny.cc/c3kWS
Frank
2 years ago
realisticman
"You get cuter and cuter, or is that more cute and then more cute even more?"
Aw shucks, I'm blushing.
"I can understand your difficulty in providing data showing even one place that has recently had increased employment."
Isn't Newfoundland part of Canada? They joined back in 1949 or something, it was in all the papers.
They lost roughly 2,000 jobs from March of last year to March of this year but actually gained jobs from last month to this month. That's right, GAINED. While BC lost the most in Canada.
Same with PEI, they lost a few jobs year over year but actually GAINED jobs in March versus the month before. And PEI has been a province since 1873 so I think they count.
"I also appreciate that you would like to see the environment file played with into arcane trivia and my salient points pushed further up the thread"
Not at all, I enjoy your giving me the chance to post the truth about Campbell's environmental record. In fact, I think some might think we're a team with you being my set up guy.
"They should also be allowed a perspective on where they are and how they compare to the rest of the world."
But you'd rather BC wasn't compared with other provinces, any of them, and I can understand why.
Frank
2 years ago
Thank you
"Don't forget to read this front page story:"
I welcome the attacks on the NDP by Campbell-supporting enviros. Gives me lots of ammo for the next 4 years as those same enviros have to continue to defend their favourite premier.
Frank
2 years ago
Other provinces doing well
From March of last year to March of this year :
Nova Scotia saw 0.2% job growth.
Manitoba saw 0.5% job growth
Saskatchewan saw 0.9% job growth
Ontario suffered 2.5% job losses
BC suffered 4.7% job losses
seth
2 years ago
19 billion in IPP losses as of today
Go to bloomberg.com and look at spot energy trades - 2 cents a kwh.
Despite this BC Hydro has signed us up for approx 40 billion so far in Pirate power at 12 cents a kwh. No doubt if they are reelected that number inflates to 80 billion.
At BC hydro's long term borrowing rates the current 40 billion can be financed by a 20 billion bond ie BC's debt is understated by 20 billion.
Now BC Hydro has a bunch of contracts on hand that says it must buy about 10 gigawatt hours of power annual every springtime at 12 cents a kwh. With the current spot rate at 2 cents how much would BCHydro be able to sell those contracts for. Answer any stock analyst could give you would be about 1 billion dollars. If BCHydro tried to cash out its existing contracts today the market would hand BCHydro and us taxpayers almost a 100% loss.
If Carole James can't show Gordo and gang to be the most incompetent economic manager in any western democracy in history she needs to get a new job.
realisticman
2 years ago
Frank
You'll have to argue this with Jimmy. Here are some figures from his reference:
"Manitoba's employment also fell in March (-4,000), bringing the unemployment rate up 0.3 percentage points to 5.1%.
In March, employment in Saskatchewan declined by 3,000.
The only other province with a notable employment decline in March was Nova Scotia, down 3,000."
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/090409/dq090409a-eng.htm
Frank
2 years ago
realisticman
http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/labr66i-eng.htm
Look at the figures yourself, click on the province you want to look at and off you go.
BC is the worst performing province no matter which way you measure it.
The truth hurts, I feel your considerable pain.
Name
2 years ago
Depressing but true...
Will is absolutely right. The NDP so far looks positively musty, it's so stale - definitely not yet ready for prime time. What is there to vote FOR?
Campbell has absolutely nothing on his side this time... and to watch the NDP blowing it so badly in the early going is really depressing. They're even giving him the green vote on a platter! The GREEN vote! It's insane!
Sadly, I think a lot of people will just sit this election out if this is the best they can offer. The only thing worse than another Campbell victory would be to elect a bumbling NDP for a disastrous single term and then turn BC into a single-party dictatorship for the next 3 decades.
f00bar
2 years ago
The reality is...
... that the NDP has a mountain to climb to regain credibility on the economy after the Clark years.
No amount of complaining about how evil Gordo is is going to get past that. So far, the platform that the NDP has laid out is doing nothing to make the public feel confident that a return to NDP govt won't be a return to the 90's. Fair/unfair doesn't matter, that's the reality.
That's why the NDP platform is such a disappointment. It completely overlooks the issue of regaining credibility, and just returns to the same old tired rhetoric.
And then, to piss off the environmental lobby with their anti-carbon-tax policy is quite stupid. Again, it doesn't matter that quietly in the background there's a cap-and-trade thingy, what's front and centre in the campaign is that carbon tax is bad. What ordinary people will take from this is that the NDP is really serious about fighting climate change.
Really, if you can't even run a campaign competently, how can you run the govt? People in BC have a lot to fear in the next few years, because neither party inspires any confidence in their ability to manage the issues we face.
Frank
2 years ago
foobar
Did you read that the NDP created more jobs in BC during their years than the Liberals have? The NDP has nothing to apologize for in the 1990s.
But in the end the people of BC will get the government they want, and if they're happy with Campbell's record on jobs, homelessness, poverty and the environment then they should happily vote for him.
G West
2 years ago
F00bar
Pease, tell me what's good about the Campbell Tax?
Just curious.
If the environmental 'lobby' (whatever that is) can't discern that the Campbell Tax is nothing more than a money Wurlitzer then why would anyone court their opinion?
Please, tell me?
Campbell has to run on his record and it's not pretty - here, let me show you:
1. Worst rate in Canada of child poverty, five years running.
2. Lowering the minimum wage to $6 per hour - yes, $6 an hour. Do a little research on your own to see how the ‘training’ wage is being used to keep costs down for Gordo’s friends in the hospitality and tourism industry.
3. Tearing up of union contracts, ordering workers back and reducing their wages by 15 per cent. Do a little research here too – and don’t forget to look at what the Supreme Court of Canada has to say….
4. Giving Gordon Campbell a 54 per cent salary increase and MLAs a 29 per cent increase.
5. Export of raw logs up 1,600 per cent in 10 years; mills shutting down, mill workers by the thousands unemployed.
6. The 2010 Olympics, $4-6 billion, $900,000,000.00 for security alone for a 17-day party for Vancouver- Whistler.
7. No B.C. shipyards were even permitted to bid on the building of new ferries. A total of $542 million went to a German shipbuilding firm with 10-15 more on order in the next 10 years. They have a problem with vibration and heavy fuel consumption – you can confirm this yourself too. Over 2,000 direct jobs were lost and 3,500 indirect. Not to mention the excise tax payable on the transactions.
8. The sale of B.C. Rail (breaking his own promise) and that little issue of an ongoing criminal trial surrounding that sale.
9. And this is the worst, remember Paul Nettleton exposing Campbell`s plans to sell off B.C. Hydro and Campbell`s denial. You might want to look into that a little further as well.
10. And of course, health care, seniors care, homelessness, increasing poverty and serial problems in Murray Coel’s little ministry.
You want more?
It’s available – or are you stuck in the past like the PAB?
Skywalker
2 years ago
Hey fOObar
".. that the NDP has a mountain to climb to regain credibility on the economy after the Clark years."
You obviously have not read Bill Tielmann's piece today. The 90's were pretty good compared to Campbell's new era of give-aways to friends. The shares of the media that created the myth you believe in are now worthless. Tell you something?
f00bar
2 years ago
The reality is...
... you're all preaching to the choir here. Nobody who hangs out at The Tyee is going to vote for Gordo. That's not the issue. As the article points out, the NDP is not doing a very good job with its message to convince the majority of the province that doesn't hang out at The Tyee that they're worth a shot.
You really don't need to recite the litany of things that Gordo has done wrong. Or the analysis of Bill Tieleman that things weren't so bad in the 90's. The perception in the general population is that they WERE bad, and it's the NDP's fault. People remember fast ferries, not the convention centre.
If the NDP wants to win, it has to climb that mountain. It's message should be aimed at that. If they can't persuade regular people that they CAN actually manage the economy well, they're not going to win. Telling everyone how evil Gordo is is not a winning campaign message. Everyone knows that already.
Pissing off the environmentally inclined by slagging on the carbon tax is also not helpful. You can question Gordo's motives, but not the concept of the tax, unless you intend to make people question your own motives.
That's all I'm saying. Don't shoot me. It would be really silly if the NDP loses this election because it doesn't want to recognize what the issues are that it has to fight on.
Frank
2 years ago
foobar
The NDP can't get its message out unfiltered except door to door and in tv commercials.
What you're saying is that somehow the NDP talking through a hostile media is going to convince people that everything that same media has already told them is wrong? There's no way of that happening.
As for the environmentally inclined, they weren't NDP supporters anyway, their only decision is Green or Liberal and always has been as polls show.
If the NDP want to lose the election all they need to do is tick off their own supporters by bowing to the demands of people on the Right (including enviros) who won't support them anyway.
Which they tried before and that's how you get reduced to 2 seats.
G West
2 years ago
F00bar
No one wants to shoot you - I just listened to Gerry Scott try to debate with Martyn Brown on CBC Almanac.
Brown is incapable of answering a question with anything but PAB boilerplate.
I expect people to behave intelligently and make up their own minds on the merits; I know that's too much to ask from a lot of stupid people, but I expect nominally progressive folks like youself to be something other than passive defeatists.
IF you don't think Carole James will be a better premier than the CEO, that's fine - say so - as for the concept of the tax - it can't be separated from its reality - and that reality is a LIE.
realisticman
2 years ago
Frank
"If the NDP want to lose the election all they need to do is tick off their own supporters by bowing to the demands of people on the Right (including enviros) who won't support them anyway."
So that's your opinion Frank. Or is it a fact? Enviros are Right wing nuts?
"The NDP Platform: A Step Backwards for Climate Action
Between 2005 and 2009 British Columbia's climate change policies have gone from "poor" to "the best" relative to the rest of Canada. The carbon tax is the core policy advance that puts British Columbia on the forefront of climate action in North Parched EarthAmerica and around the world. The NDP election platform announced April 2009 eliminates the foundation of the existing British Columbia climate plan without offering an equivalent or improved replacement. "
http://bc.pembina.org/
Frank
2 years ago
realisticman
If you believe that and you consider yourself an enviro then by all means vote Liberal, I'm sure you won't be disappointed considering how low your standards are.
Luke Skywalker Redux
2 years ago
A Logical Caveat...
A logical caveat undermines that argument... from the electorate's viewing lens.
Todays' Mustel poll, fer instance.
Top Issues of Concern
1. Economy: 39%
2. Crime: 12%
"Who Would Do the Best Job on Those Issues?"
1. Economy:
Lib: 63%
NDP: 23%
2. Crime:
Lib: 49%
NDP: 25%
Those are staggering spreads (40% and 24% respectively) and in politics public perception is reality. But public perception does not apparently equate to Tyee poster perception. ;)
Interestingly enough, on this date preceeding the 2005 election (April 14, 2005), Mustel showed the Libs with a 8% gap (actual election result was a 4% gap).
And health care was the Number 1 Issue of concern in 2005 - the issue, in which, the electorate believes that the NDP is better positioned.
That health care issue and Campbell's -13% disapproval rating (today it stands at +11%) assisted the NDP in narrowing the 2005 gap by 4% in 2005.
Otherwise, right up to election day in 2005 both Mustel and Ipsos had relatively stable party preference figures and Mustel was bang-on with its final projection with a 4.7% spread (actual was 4.3%).
And the horse race is on....
Frank
2 years ago
Luke
"public perception is reality."
No it isn't, its still just perception. But you can try and sue reality if you want to.
"And the horse race is on...."
Actually its about setting the priorities in this province for the next 4 years. if you want to see a horse race there are facilities that cater to that.
Fiat lux
2 years ago
The BCLibs belong to the
The BCLibs belong to the same twisted ideological gang who caused the present worldwide economic collapse. Not a recession, but the collapse of a fraudulent theory that brought on the biggest crime wave in human history and will cause far more before being wiped off by a more enlightened human society.
Yet, it is most amazing how their brainwash departments could still sell the idea to the public that these incompetent losers are the best to cure the terrible mess and suffering they have caused.
At the same time, I fully agree that the downfall of the NDP has always been the total lack of communications skills.
Ed Deak.
Rod Smelser
2 years ago
Wow
Luke Skywalker Redux
And the horse race is on....
Wow.
To some, that's what it is alright, nothing more.
G West
2 years ago
Luke
So your sojurn in purgatory is over!
Nice to see you back dude, I've missed that 'same old same old' all the time.
By the way, you asked for a definition of 'mailing it in', remember?
I'm pleased to be able to provide it:
mailing it in
1. Slang for doing the least amount of work possible or slacking off.
"He's really been mailing it in lately, he hasnt finished any of his projects."
2. To call out a co-worker for being lazy as if it were their last day.
"Luke you have really been mailing it in for ages, how about you actually come up with something you haven't cribbed from a poll?"
morechatter
2 years ago
Economic Plans for the Future
What could Carol James do that would be advantageous for the future of BC's economic climate without getting an honest look at the books and the true picture of BC's true state of affairs? Cut the Carbon Tax from doing any further damage during economic recession as tourisum takes a financial beating along with BC's Lumber industry and other business in BC to remain competitive.
And isn't making money what business does best? And you don't have to worry about business its going to get its two cents in there.
Campbell's been making billions for the province? Where is it? Its not circulating in the economy all he has been good at is creating extreme poverty with extreme riches for a few as CEO's and staff beat down the injured worker and enjoy the spoils along with ICBC who leave many an injured driver feeling like they have been run over and left for dead. Along with the homeless who get beat down by workers and a system hell bent on their demise as another crippled homeless man is murdered in the school yard who was homeless as government adamant about not giving the disablied enough to live so they could die on the streets or be murdered.
Tax breaks for the rich how does that help the economy? They don't like to spend as its more like they like getting people to work for nothing while they make unbelievable returns on their money or so they thought. And so this province must be just booming with all them rich folks you would think as their fortunes are allowed to mulipy as Campbell ensures they get all the tax breaks while tearing apart Families and Childrens and despite knowing kids and disabled as are not safe under his governments care as excessive cuts are being just put through to ensure these kids are left in dire need with out any hope for their futures along with the disablied and elderly.
So whats the message starve a kid save a buck,diddle a child who cares, leave the vunerable on the streets to die or be killed to save another buck.
Like is this all the big time economic platform where Campbell's government spends valuable resources beating down societies less fortunate citizens? Dosen't sound like a whole lot of money but one thing for sure starve a kid get a tax break just about sums up the BC Liberal platform and its Liberal supporters as apparently beating down the poor is big business in British Columbian
as its poor are the poorest in the country and getting poorer so I imagine British Columbians will just have to live with the financial blow as their most valuable resources dries up as BC's poor are left penniless leaving the rich poorer and the middle class impoverised as fellow humans live in squaller right next door as there is no way to get that stench of poverty out as it reeks of death and dispare all becomes the BC experience something most can live without.
morechatter
2 years ago
Realistman
Why even go there the Liberals are doing the environment they are not helping the environment as money goes to harm environment not help? How by spending hundreds of millions on add campagins to get everyone on board? Well they are off board and BC wasn't even mentioned when it came to being environmentaly friendly in Canada as PEI and Calgary along with other cities in Canada but BC was not one of them. Along with a ride on any train which thanks to the many empty seats you can catch a ride without worrying where to sit almost anytime of the day and night as often you can have a train to yourself along with 100 local police officers. Which is insane especially when people are losing their jobs and never mind gas what about food and catching a ride on public transit so you can get to work or find a job? Foolishman.
morechatter
2 years ago
Thats right!
Thats probably it! All those people losing their jobs aren't taking the train, or car or bus because who can afford it? I thought it was strange the trains being so empty but noted the high cost of park and ride and fares which add up to a $20 with a coffee for the ride.
jimmy_laroux
2 years ago
@ realisticman
Haha! Really?
Not far behind and rising rapidly. Faster than anywhere else in the country, in fact...
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/fp/leads+jobs+lost+across+Canada+March/1481892/story.html
DPL
2 years ago
Gordo was on all the TV
Gordo was on all the TV stations here in Victoria today. says we must be careful not to let the NDP back and ruin all the good things he has done in the last eight years. Well buried in the local paper was a article about how unemployment in BC is getting worse. If he ramins in powere , who knows just how bad things can get. I enjoyed the poster above saying that anyone on the Tyee wouldn't vote Liberal so why do the Gordo apologists show up here to comment about how bad the NDP were in the 90's?
daveallen
2 years ago
Great Article Will, Thanks
Nice to see both sides of an issue covered.
Frank
2 years ago
Bias
Actually it was an anti-NDP article from a former Socred but hey, who cares.
Skywalker
2 years ago
daveallen
What makes you think you would recognize both sides of an issue from your perspective. You phoney impartiality does not work here.
michael maser
2 years ago
"lack of communication skills" ??
Ed Deak writes: " the downfall of the NDP has always been the total lack of communications skills."
Well, knock me over with a feather. Ed, I truly thought you had more neurological horse power than to say something like this.
How about a lack of integrity, how about being just as ideologically driven as the right-wing "menaces"? How about a premier's office under GC that was as duplicitous and covert as anything the liberals devised, all the while assuring the public they supported "more transparent government"? Can you name an NDP cabinet minister from the '90s who emerged with his/her integrity totally intact after 9 years in office? I'll pick John Cashore but I can't think of another one.
The NDP are a bankrupt force, as is the right wing. But to listen to the cat-calling here, I'd think there were only two choices in this election. That's not true.
There's the Green Party (totally ignored by the Tyee comrades) running as well. I vote for them, contribute to policy develop, donate to them, and consider them an excellent option.
I encourage Ed, to park your horse and buggy and your vitriol and stop deluding yourself.
Rod Smelser
2 years ago
Michael Maser: Can you name any NDP cabinet minister ...
Michael Maser
... How about a premier's office under GC that was as duplicitous and covert as anything the liberals devised, all the while assuring the public they supported "more transparent government"? Can you name an NDP cabinet minister from the '90s who emerged with his/her integrity totally intact after 9 years in office? I'll pick John Cashore but I can't think of another one.
Michael, I am NDP supporter and have been since 1968 so I guess my opinion is biased. I was just wondering if you can name any NDP Cabinet Ministers from the 1990s whose personal integrity was compromised. I can't think of one.
Frank
2 years ago
Integrity
I can think of two non-elected Greens that haven't even been elected and have already lost their integrity.
David Suzuki and Tzeporah Berman.
Wilfred Laurier
2 years ago
Irony
The real irony is the David Suzuki was an NDP icon for years and has left the party and said party is trying to make him some sort of a pariah, as the above post shows.
The writer correct to state the NDP has to broaden its message to include more voters that would not have normally voted for them and that Ms James missed a golden opportunity to do that with her rebuttal on the economic statement. Instead she stuck to her one plank platform
The Liberals are 17 points ahead on the election call. They need 5% to win comfortably.
http://www.mustelgroup.com/pdf/20090414.pdf
But of course, if you do not agree with a poll, it is "not an accurate representation of the electorate."
Frank
2 years ago
Suzuki
I remember a man named David Emerson who left the Liberals and joined the Conservatives. Funnily enough the writer above didn't appreciate Mr Emerson any more.
Wilfred Laurier
2 years ago
Huh?
"I remember a man named David Emerson who left the Liberals and joined the Conservative"
If I recall Emmerson was a federal politician. Does this have anything to do with the provincial election?
Frank
2 years ago
Politics is politics
You'd prefer I mentioned Paul Nettleton instead?
The fact is, there's a long list of people that have left the Liberals, provincially and federally.
Wilfred Laurier
2 years ago
True
"The fact is, there's a long list of people that have left the Liberals, provincially and federally."
Same for the NDP. Gregor Robertson and Devid Chudnovsky immediately come to mind. Both were "star candidates" in 2005.
Frank
2 years ago
So...
Gregor and David didn't leave the party and join rival parties. That would be like me saying Trudeau and Chretien left the Liberals. But whatever.
Glad we're agreed on the fact people leave parties.
Wilfred Laurier
2 years ago
Apples and Oranges
I believe the topic of the article was the provincial election. As usual, I will leave you to have the last word, Frank.
Frank
2 years ago
The topic
But of course you chose to change the topic until you found your point indefensible.
Being the cheery sort I am... by all means.
Luke Skywalker Redux
2 years ago
Best Line of The Election So Far ...
BC Liberals - Reasonably competent people you don’t really like.
NDP - Completely incompetent people you don’t really like.
Greens - Presumably incompetent people who don’t like you.
BC Conservative Party - What? There’s a BC Conservative Party? Yes, barely.
Frank
2 years ago
Luke
Did you write that? Or is that Michael Walker's brand of humour?
G West
2 years ago
Luke
You're getting as bad as the R/man with uncited sources and quotes from unknown people.
Still mailing it in I guess - not that that's surprising when you support a completely corrupt and bankrupt regime.
Wilfred Laurier
2 years ago
Garth
"not that that's surprising when you support a completely corrupt and bankrupt regime"
Then Garth you have to find a way to get your party enough votes to get elected. That might mean new policies that are more inclusive. Can you make that leap?
G West
2 years ago
Not my job Wilf
Further, I don't want your sort to support the Opposition - it would just turn them into a group equally as corrupt as the gang we have now.
I know you can't make the leap to actually believing in democratic institutions that apply to the majority instead of creating a cynosure just for the CEO's business friends and ‘neocon’ hangers on.
I'm perfectly prepared to take a cut in my standard of living in order to better my fellow citizens; happy to pay higher taxes if that’s what it takes to raise the minimum wage and get homeless people off the streets.
If you want to change that's up to you - but don't expect me to adopt what I abhor.
I don't mind having your enmity, in fact, it's the hatred of folks like you that keeps me working for a better future. It constantly reminds me what I’m fighting for.
I know you can’t make that leap and besides, you’re probably too old to change now anyway. Sometimes progress has no choice but to leave some folks behind I guess.
G West
2 years ago
Besides
I guess you didn't notice the remark of mine you quoted back to me wasn't directed at you anyway.
Did you not notice the word 'luke'?
Frank
2 years ago
G
Wilf thinks others should undergo Maoist re-education camps so as to change their values to be more like his own, but never gives any thought to re-thinking his.
realisticman
2 years ago
Talking about...
I wonder which horse Ujjal Dosanjh is backing in this election?
Romeogolf
2 years ago
Lesser of Two Evils?
Nah. I'm voting STV so that the strategic voting soul selling can end.
Rod Smelser
2 years ago
Wilfred: This is really incredible
Wilfred Laurier
If I recall Emmerson was a federal politician. Does this have anything to do with the provincial election?
Wow. This is really incredible.
David Emerson was a Deputy Minister in Victoria for several years under the Socred Govt's, who are now doing business as "The BC Liberals". He's as interchangable as between Victoria and Ottawa as Carole Taylor.
Rod Smelser
2 years ago
Damn good question
realisticman
I wonder which horse Ujjal Dosanjh is backing in this election?
That's a damn good question. But the answer is obvious. The BC Liberals.
And where is Brad Zubyk, too. Is he getting ready to "vet" any candidates with twelve year old, unsubstantiated and unbelievable allegations?
BC Boy
2 years ago
Forgot 1979, Will.
Will, you didn't include 1979 in your excellent analysis. In that election, Social Credit almost lost the election because of inattention to the electorate, plus some contentious policies that were brought in at the time (There was a large increase in ferry fares - the line at the time was directed at Pat McGeer - "in your ear, McGeer"), plus I think the insurance rates for ICBC went up too.
The Socreds won a majority of seats, but I believe just barely. They lost a few seats including two in Burnaby alone.
It was the first election where the Social Credit policies could correctly be compared to those of the NDP's 1972-1975 term (the comparisions and reflections by the BC Liberals now of the NDP's term 1991-2001 is silly since the NDP was last in power in April, 2001, and there's been little or no comparative to the BC Liberals first term 2001-2005).
The result in 1983 was manifested in other ways. As a result of the near loss of the 1979 election, Bill Bennett brought in a few from Ontario's Big Blue Machine (one of those was the now infamous Patrick Kinsella who told an opposition member to shut up when Kinsella was in The House on his first visit there).
The party was also re-invented to be more dynamic and more focused to the volunteers (unlike the BC Liberals are now) and there
was much for volunteers to get into party wise (again unlike the BC Liberals).
The 1983 win was also manifested with the error made by Barrett when he stated that if elected the NDP would remove the Restraint programme. That happened about half way through the election. it turned the election around, and make Bill Bennett look more like a leader.
The 1983 election was one for the books. Lessons were learned from that election in 1979.
Rod Smelser
2 years ago
Was the lesson "restraint"?
BC Boy
The 1983 election was one for the books. Lessons were learned from that election in 1979.
BC Boy, you're right about the importation of Kinsella and Jerry Lampert from the Ontario Big Blue Machine. The Insurance Man from Ingersoll as he was once portrayed by Warren Davis in a CBC drama is having just as big an impact in BC as he once did in Ontario.
One would hope that the real lesson from the 1983 election is the post-election result - the Bennett "restraint" plan. Voters in BC today need to recall that the last time the re-elected a right wing government in a recession the results was a radical pro-cyclical fiscal policy that lengthened and deepened the recession, and which cynically used the economic situation as excuse for backsliding on civil and labour rights and progressive laws and regulations.
With the kind of media we have in BC, including some of the shills at The Tyee, the notion that policy rather than pollsters figures will be analyzed is kind of remote.