Opinion

Iran, Canada and the Petro State

ENERGY & EQUITY: Nikiforuk on how oil lubricates bellicose statecraft.

By Andrew Nikiforuk, 5 Mar 2012, TheTyee.ca

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: Power flows from price of oil.

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Whenever North Americans fill up their vehicles with gasoline these days they should reflect on their ongoing contribution to the dysfunctional status of petro states and the Islamic Republic of Iran in particular.

Iran's civilian nuclear power ambitions, of course, have set off a grand political tiff with the United States and Israel. Both suspect the nation wants to make atomic weapons too.

The United States, which pioneered the globe's oil addiction, has imposed trade sanctions while pundits have begun to beat war drums. Israel, which has quietly eliminated a few Iranian nuclear engineers, has hinted about pre-emptive strikes.

As a consequence, North American motorists, whose driving habits and penchant for cheap oil transformed Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia into bona fide petro states decades ago, are now paying a higher price at the pumps for the most volatile of global commodities.

It seems that the masters of oil can't make a move these days without jinxing their motorized slaves even when the cheapness is gone.

In this oily drama, Canada has a supersized ethical problem. Both Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad share an uncanny fondness for the totalitarian and corrupt Chinese state. Both men, professing devout religiosity, also share the grand ambition of becoming major energy superpowers. (One might add that Harper is as pro-Israel as Ahmadinejad is against it.)

The two nations' happy Chinese bond is nothing but unseemly. National oil companies such as Sinopec, Petro China and the Chinese National Petroleum Corp have poured nearly $20 billion into the oil sands. In the process, they have flouted Alberta's labour laws and even acquired the right to veto bitumen upgrading in Canada. These same companies have also poured billions into Iran's aging oil fields and now back up Syria's murderous regime.

Nevertheless, Canada's foreign minister John Baird recently invoked the Holocaust and Mein Kampf while talking about Iran's petro politicians. His wild rhetoric helps to keep the price of oil high, a driver of costly bitumen production. (A portion of Baird's salary, of course, comes from Ottawa's bitumen revenue stream.)

It is instructive that Baird has not denounced Sinopec's human rights violations in Sudan; its bloody investments in Syria; its links to terrorist supporting governments; its dark intrigues in Myanmar and Angola; or its charges of abuse of temporary workers in Alberta.

By now most Canadians know why Baird's invective is so selective. According to the prime minister's ethical oil office, every communist or gangster investor becomes as white as snow when they buy a cheap chunk of Canada's oil patch. By this reasoning, it is truly Iran's great misfortune not to have invested in the tar sands months ago and taken advantage of its miraculous diplomatic upgrading process.)

Iran's squandering of oil wealth

But Iran's story is not as simpleminded as Baird's rhetoric or that of the war-mongering media. Sadly, Iran's predicament illustrates the corrosive influence of the world's master resource on a nation's culture.

In 2006, for example, U.S. geographer and oil analyst Roger Stern argued that Iran's nuclear ambitions largely arose from the mismanagement of the nation's state-owned oil resources and not just from some rogue desire to blow things up. Thanks to energy subsidies, crappy oil field management and a dumbed down economy, declines in oil production and revenues forced the regime to turn to nuclear power to make up for the energy shortfall, he argued.

It was a pretty smart analysis then and still highly relevant today. Petro states, whether we are talking about Canada or Iran, share similar views and institutional arrangements regardless of their geography or culture. In general their dependence on oil revenue tends to centralize power, neutralize public bureaucracies, discourage innovation, diminish statecraft and hollow out the economy. Petro states, more over, live mostly in a state of denial about this political shape-shifting.

Once a government gets addicted to petro dollars, it doesn't care much for representation by taxation or the will of the people either. (Iranians generally hate their government.) Alberta, Louisiana, Texas, and Russia are also members of this incompetent and largely authoritarian club to varying degrees.

Iran, however, has been a contested petroleum honey pot longer than most. The British first siphoned off the nation's oil profits in the 1920s and '30s. When Iranian prime minister Mohammed Mossadeq tried to do something better for his people by nationalizing oil resources, a British-supported CIA coup changed the regime in 1953.

That intervention put the Shah of Iran in the driver's seat. He remained there for 26 years until his secret police (Savak) and corruption sparked a bloody uprising in 1979 leading to the creation of an Islamic republic. (If the average motorist knew what mayhem the fueling of their machines demanded, the majority would not only walk away but perhaps take up walking. Or maybe not.)

The great Polish journalist Ryszard Kapuscinski chronicled petroleum's impact on Iran, once a highly cultured place, in Shah of Shahs. (Petro states invariably collapse as suddenly as a drop in oil prices and often in tandem.)

Kapuscinski, a wonderful reporter, described oil as "the temptation of ease, wealth, strength, fortune, power." He viewed petro states as weird concoctions with a peculiar sense of exceptionality:

"Oil creates the illusion of a completely changed life, life without work, life for free. Oil is a resource that anesthetizes thought, blurs vision, corrupts. People from poor countries go around thinking: God, if only we had oil! The concept of oil expresses perfectly the eternal human dream of wealth achieved through lucky accident, through a kiss of fortune and not by sweat, anguish, hard work. In this sense oil is a fairy tale, and like every fairy tale, a bit of a lie. Oil fills us with such arrogance that we begin believing we can easily overcome such unyielding obstacles as time. With oil, the last Shah used to say, 'I will create a second America in a generation!' He never created it."

Ever since then, Iran has struggled to pump oil. Under the Shah, a petro politician as arrogant as Harper, production reached five million barrels a day, but today the nation barely manages but 3.7 million barrels. Without $200 billion in investments and technological upgrades, oil production could decline by 11 per cent a year and drop to some three million barrels a day by 2016.

That represents a huge loss of income for the petro state. Oil and gas now account for roughly 25 per cent of Iran's economy and 50 per cent of all government revenues. To complicate things, Iran's 70 million car-happy citizens gobble nearly half of the nation's oil. The rest goes to China, Japan, India and South Korea, Italy and France, or did until recent embargoes and UN trade sanctions.

Why Iran wants to go nuclear

Based on Iranian data provided by confidential sources, Stern predicted in 2006 that Iran would not be able to maintain its oil exports. But he miscalculated. With Chinese help Iran has injected lots of natural gas into some aging fields and kept the wolf from the door. "A dramatic rise in oil prices has also kept their heads above water," adds Stern. The country is also mining its vast natural gas reserves.

But a combination of sanctions and mismanagement still point to declining revenues and rising political instability over time.

"The regime has been incapable of maximizing profit, minimizing cost or constraining explosive demand for subsidized petroleum products," noted Stern in 2006.

This petroleum crisis has been the primary motive behind Iran's Russian-blessed nuclear program. It's an attempt to create more power to free up more oil for export and all to keep government coffers full of easy cash. Petro states, after all, are in the business of selling oil.

America's unwillingness to ponder the sheer incompetence and negligence of oil addled states (and it's a hallmark of Mexico, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia too) stems from another problem well documented by Stern.

In 2010, he calculated that U.S. deployment of aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf to keep the Strait of Hormuz open amounted to $7.3 trillion between 1976 to 2008. (The cost of the oil added up to another $3 trillion for the U.S. economy.)

But this projection of force, based entirely on fears of an interrupted oil supply, is counterproductive. "Oil weapon fear" actively stokes the fires of high oil prices and conveniently ignores an old problem: OPEC's oil market power. Concludes Stern in another clear-minded 2006 study: "Only forceful market intervention seems capable of interrupting the syndrome we describe."

Lowering oil demand would do that. Conservation, improved fuel efficiency and higher energy taxes might not only drive oil prices down but erode the power of petro states (and their oil companies) around the world. Unfortunately American drivers are not savers nor terribly fond of taxes. Yet conservation, the bold path not taken, still remains, says Stern, who calls that path "aggressive yet peaceful, less risky than war, more forceful than sanctions."

It's also the kind of diplomatic recommendation you'll never hear from a petro state. Canada, like Iran, is now in the oil business, and its jingoistic politicians will ratchet up tensions to keep those prices rising.

Oil seemingly has become the master of political instability in the world while motorists remain its most obedient servants.

[Tags: Energy, Politics.]  [Tyee]

15  Comments:

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  • Midships

    1 year ago

    Sssssmokin"!

    You are smoking crack.

  • LaughingMan3000

    1 year ago

    Who Watches The Watchmen?

    Our government has failed us! Not only the Conservatives but the NDP and Liberals! It's time Canadians take Canada back! Shout out for changes in the government! Changes that will put the power back in the hands of the people! We need laws that allow us to force referendums on the politicians when they get out of hand and laws to punish the politicians for when they go to far! The first politician we should hold accountable is Vic Toews. Just in case you forgot what you did, Mr. Toews, you are a liar! You lied to the people of this country, now you should pay the price.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ia54A5B7auY

    www.cananon.info

    http://www.youtube.com/user/OperationVicTory

  • Fiat lux

    1 year ago

    It is interesting how blindly

    It is interesting how blindly religious and blindly capitalist governments are licking the boots of anti religious and anti capitalist communist dictatorships to be blessed by imaginary monetary figures.

    We were in England in 1953, during the Mossadeq crisis, who was also a nut case, bursting into crying while making speeches, and can remember the panic, ready to go to war, when he nationalized the oil fields.

    If politicians and our miseducated, so called "economists", had any brains they would have figured it out by now that the present economic system, built on waste and the destruction of the environment and humanity, like their idiotic GDP figures, are not sustainable, but basically a form of alcoholism and drug addiction.

    But then, the only thing they are concerned about are the next quarter's profits, to keep the imaginary values of the stock markets and its gamblers happy, regardless who gets hurt, or what gets destroyed, blessed by stupid and bought politicians.

    They haven't figured it out yet, on either side, that sustainable economic systems can not be based, and built, on imaginary monetary figures and when this fraudulent system collapses, as it will, their present "saviour" , China, will be the biggest loser, most likely destroyed by revolutions.

    The system collapsed in 1929, still under the gold standard, so its collapse based on deregulated, imaginary monetary computer figures is certain.

    Sooner, or later, humanity will find out that the only way to sustainability are physical realities and locally based economic systems. Hopefully before more millions starve to death under "wealth creation".

    And that will be the end of the oil economy.

    Of course we need, and shall need, oil and other resources, but not at the present destructive, alcoholic, drug addict levels.

    Ed Deak

  • coop

    1 year ago

    More profits for the greedy one percent

    Thank you once again Tyee and Andrew for this excellent analysis of the dismal oil soaked political situation we are stuck with here in Canada with a government hell bent to beef up the profits for the greedy one percent as they lay waste to our democracy. And there will no end in sight to these escalating problems until the opposition parties agree to work together to oust Herr Harper.

  • Waterberry

    1 year ago

    Want to lower oil demand?

    Consider the following illuminative series:

    http://thetyee.ca/Series/2012/02/15/A-Convenience-Truth/

    "Greater than the tread of mighty armies is an idea whose time has come" - Victor Hugo

  • Luck

    1 year ago

    OH CANADA

    GREAT ARTICLE TO TELL US WHAT IS HAPPENING UNDER OUR NOSES.

    WE WANT CHANGE TO THE BETTER,

    BUT UNFORTUNATELY WE ALL CAN NOT AGREE ON ONE PARTY TO SUPPORT IF ALL CAN'T BE TRUSTED RIGHT.

    SO THE 1% IS ORGANIZED AND THE 99% AINT ORGANIZED. PITY.

    IF WE DON'T CHANGE WE WILL BE IN ANOTHER WAR JUST FOR THE HELL OF IT ACCORDING TO ALL THE BULLSHIT FLYING AROUND.

    OH YOU FORGOT TO MENTION RUSSIA NEW PREZ PUTIN IN POWER AND CHINA AND MAYBE INDIA.

    THEY SIT BACK TO SPLIT THE WAR SPOILS.

    GUESS WE AINT LEARNED A DAMN THING OVER 500 YEARS

  • Fiat lux

    1 year ago

    Make that 50,000

    Make that 50,000 years.

    History is the chronicle of incredible human stupidity through the ages.

    And always because of "faith that conquers all" Especially simple logic.

    Ed Deak.

  • jimmmmy

    1 year ago

    great article

    top notch reporting, beautifully expressed.

  • Skywalker

    1 year ago

    Andrew

    Great article again!

  • zalm

    1 year ago

    Basic geography

    I keep looking at the map of the Middle East, and seeing Iran, with a nuclear-armed Pakistan on the east, a nuclear-armed Russia to the north with an unstable megalomaniac for a leader having just stolen another "election", American nukes in a devastated Iraq to the west, and more American nukes in the psychotic Bahraini kingdom to the south....

    I'm not surprised Iran wants nukes. Not so sure I want the to HAVE them, but I'm not so surprised they WANT them. Unfortunately, as the example of India and Pakistan shows, nuclear parity generally leads to an increase in tensions, rather than a reduction.

    Witness the psychotic posturing of Israel to see how that's true.

  • emwatcher

    1 year ago

    naming

    Chinese oil companies "have flaunted Alberta's labour laws"?

    What for, and to whom? Surely even Alberta's labour laws are, as written, enough to embarrass a Chinese firm. Mind you, it wouldn't surprise me to see even weak labour safeguards flouted.

    Note to zalm: Another Middle Eastern country, west of Iran (and Iraq), is also reported to have nuclear weapons.

  • jimmmmy

    1 year ago

    zalm

    as far as the situation in india pakistan i think your analysys is off by a few degrees but not wrong. without nukes there would have been a massive war between them and pakistan wouldn't exist today i agree with you on irans position on nukes it"s the governments responsibility to protect it's citizens. after whats happened in iraq and libya. iran would be negligent if it did not aquire a few nukes

  • jimmmmy

    1 year ago

    emwatcher

    so the broke-ass american owners of alta. oil are using labor violations to attack chinese tar sand aquisitions, to funny. good point on israel.

  • zalm

    1 year ago

    jimmmmy

    No offense meant, but there was a massive war between the two in 1965 - one of several. There's still a state of war between the two, although nowadays it's more typified by the daily Wagah border closing ceremony, a farce that is doubtless the subject of what must be thousands of Youtube videos.

    Biggest tank battles since WWII, more than a million military mobilized on both sides, seven thousand combat deaths and countless civilian deaths too. Things settled down for a while when India got nukes, but now that Pakistan's got 'em too, the proxy war has been heating up for half a dozen years.

    Of course, I understand, lately Pakistan's been preoccupied....

  • jimmmmy

    1 year ago

    zalm

    depends how you define massive, i was thinking thousands as opposed to millions. without the threat of mutual distruction they would have been at each other over kashmir alone sometime ago. the several skirmishes from 65 on are small potatos compared to the million dead [ according to the lancet] iraqis who were to corrupt to protect their citizens from the yanks.

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