Where's Our Global Warming Protest?
Americans are marching on their capital today. Canadians, have a donut.
In US, a more militant movement is growing.
"Oh shit..."
Those words nicely sum up the latest scientific assessment of climate change. "We are basically looking now at a future climate that is beyond anything that we've considered seriously in climate policy," announced Dr. Chris Field at the American Association for the Advancement of Science conference in Chicago this month.
Professor Field was a lead author of the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment that just two years ago projected temperature increases this century of up to 6.4 degrees Celsius. Those worst-case scenarios now seem mild in light of recent climate change research from around the world.
Massive emissions from new coal fired plants in China and India are largely to blame, blowing the ceiling off even the most pessimistic assumptions of carbon increases this decade.
Recent data shows that greenhouse gas emissions had ballooned 3.5 per cent a year from 2000 to 2007 -- more than three times the growth rate in the 1990s and "far more rapid than we expected" said Field.
In turn, these vast increases in atmospheric carbon are opening a Pandora's box of melting arctic tundra that could unleash an ancient store of frozen carbon that would dwarf industrial emissions.
The total amount of CO2 released since the start of the Industrial Revolution more than 200 years ago is about 350 billion tonnes. How much carbon could be released by melting permafrost? About 1,000 billion tonnes -- almost three times that much. Scientists believe our warming atmosphere has already begun that dangerous process.
Worse yet, these frozen soils also contain vast amounts of methane -- 23 times as powerful a greenhouse gas as CO2. A recent report from the UN warned:
"The potential consequences of large amounts of methane entering the atmosphere, from thawing permafrost or destabilized ocean hydrates, would lead to abrupt changes in the climate that would likely be irreversible. We must not cross that threshold. Reversing current human induced warming will help us avoid such outcomes entirely."
Here come the wildfires
Sorry folks, but that's not all the bad news. It turns out that our warming world is drying out tropical forests, making them susceptible to wildfires for the first time in history. Not only would that be a biological catastrophe, it would lead to massive additional releases of carbon into the atmosphere.
"Tropical forests are essentially inflammable. You couldn't get a fire to burn there if you tried. But if they dry out a little, the result can be very large and destructive wildfires," warned Dr. Field.
"It is increasingly clear that as you produce a warmer world, lots of forest areas that had been acting a carbon sinks could be converted to carbon sources."
Maybe this global warming thing wasn't such a hot idea after all. It is becoming clear that if we go any farther down this dangerous road, we are unleashing forces that will vastly accelerate global warming, whether we reduce emissions or not.
The fork in this road of course is current carbon emissions. "Without effective action, climate change is going to be larger and more difficult to deal with than we thought," said Dr. Field.
No shit.
Canada's pathetic apathy
So what has been the response of the Canadian public to this five alarm planetary emergency? Not much. While our American counterparts have been planning a massive demonstration of civil disobedience in Washington to mount pressure on the already climate-friendly Obama Administration, Canadians have remained polite and calm.
Prime Minister Harper is no dummy and you can bet that if he felt this job was on the line due to public outrage over his awful record on climate action, he might take this file more seriously. Instead carbon emissions in Canada continue to climb, even in spite of the economic downturn. Our country has one of the worst records in the world on reducing our oil addiction and remains number seven worldwide in absolute emissions.
Consider this: Obama is investing five times as much per capita in green energy stimulus as Ottawa. While Canadians have enjoyed a sense of smug superiority to our American neighbors, those days appear to be long gone.
The reason: Canada is saddled with the tar sands -- the carbon equivalent of a drinking problem. While there continues an oil boom in Alberta, no rational discussion of this bitumen boondoggle seems possible. Remember the National Energy Program? Virtually every Albertan does. Even newly minted leader Michael Ignatieff felt the need to come to the defence of the dirtiest oil on Earth this week in an effort to build his political support in the West.
Must Obama save Canadians from ourselves?
Bizarrely, the one man who can put the brakes on the tar sands isn't even Canadian. If Obama chooses to limit purchases of filthy oil from the tar sands, this project is in big trouble. There is no infrastructure to deliver synthetic crude anywhere but the U.S. Declining oil prices and global credit crisis have already put the squeeze on once-booming Alberta. If their market also dries up due to a credible cap and trade system in the U.S., the party is over.
Canada, the once proud global leader on such principled issues as fighting apartheid, land mines, and pioneering peacekeeping, now finds itself hoping that it can develop the dirtiest oil on the planet. The United States may well decline to buy it for ethical reasons. Talk about being on the wrong side of history.
Politics does not happen in a vacuum -- it flows from public opinion and action. The science on climate change is not just clear, it is terrifying. How will our nation respond?
Have another donut Canada.
Related Tyee stories:
- It's the Tar Sands, Stupid
Canada home to global warming's new ground zero. - Oilsands 'change everything' says Ignatieff
- In Canada, a Push for Obama-style Green Stimulus
PM to get plan backed by 850,000 group members.
![[Tyee]](http://thetyee.cachefly.net/ui/img/ico_fishie.png){kind=small}
jimmy_laroux
02-03-2009
Northern Gateway pipeline
Maybe not yet, but the Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline is planned, and its
http://www2.canada.com/vancouversun/news/business/story.html?id=480d1db9-0216-4c11-97eb-067ffbf2eff7
The project website:
http://www.northerngateway.ca/
Illahie
02-03-2009
How shrill can they get
The IPCC climate change "scientists" are getting more and more shrill. I hope they don't pop a gasket. While they become more and more vocal, the earth continues on its cooling trend.
puppyg
02-03-2009
We are apathetic as a nation
We are apathetic as a nation because our government has consistently lied to us about climate change and the impact of hydrocarbon combustion on global warming.
First there was blanket denial that global warming existed. Federal scientists were harangued, their findings suppressed and their reports censored.
Then there was the closed-door dealing with the Bush administration that traded the promise of tar sands developed for the promise of political support - will we ever know the terms of that deal with the Devil?
Even now, my encounters with professionals in Alberta's oil patch reveal the same wide-held belief there, that global warming is a myth (or that, if it is real, then, it's part of nature or even "... well, China does it too!".
Rex Murphy on CBC just did a rant in defense of tars sands and attacking National Geographic for its tar sands expose. How grateful we should all be, he contends, for this glorious economic engine that has employed so many and uplifted the nation!
And so we proceed, headlong into disaster.
Harper is to global warming what Ronald Reagan was to AIDS research... that will be the legacy.
carfreed
02-03-2009
where's our protest?
It went out with Dion.
Now we have the Libs and Conservatives supporting more carbon.
Fish-counter
02-03-2009
Washington listens; Ottawa is deaf.
Why protest when the premier is as deaf as Stephen Harper? It is a bad day when the Canadian premier is more right wing than the U.S. president. Stephen Harper and Gordon Campbell should get married; they may be nominally at opposite political poles but they are perfect bedfellows on the environment.
I have worked for 15 years in Nanaimo to restore local streams with high school students under the Work Experience Program. The program was cancelled at the provincial level two years ago, owing to the funding crunch. The school districts find it more expedient to keep small schools open and keep parents happy than to fund their programs.
Having worked with over 500 high school students, I can safely say that in any given year, a good number of them - about 10% - are motivated to do environmental restoration work.
They need to connect their enthusiasm with action, or they quickly become apathetic and cynical. Local eco-programs bring enormous benefits to the local community, but it all just got canned.
Marching and protesting in the streets was never every effective anyway. A sharp object, well-placed, might stop the heartbeat of our negligent government but a few banners will have no effect. I would rather reach for my shovel than a poster.
superjudge
02-03-2009
Smoke and Mirrors...
A group of Japanese scientists from the Japan Society of Energy and Resources has just put out a report arguing against anthropogenic causes of climate change. Climate change issue is really about political posturing, politics of fear, and social control. Things are going to change no matter what...
freebear
02-03-2009
No 'Our' just 'Me's' !!!
There is no 'our' in Canada it seems. Just a collection of me's (not discounting those that are indeed 'We's' and 'Ours').
Burbibg carbon seems to be what humans do best; its just that there are too many of us or me's burning all the carbon we can get our hands on!
While 'we' keep fiddlin!
alive
02-03-2009
Apathetic, period!
puppyg
correction: we are apathetic, period!
As a nation we allow ourselves to be used and abused; we never voice a concern as long as the "leaders" get a decent rating in the media!
Thinking for ourselves is not happening and every election proves that fact!
Rob_
02-03-2009
it is happening right now in Surrey
it is happening right now in Surrey
blockading our equivelient of coal plants - the Gateway Program
see: http://www.gatewaysucks.org/
Rod Smelser
02-03-2009
it is happening right now in Surrey
Rob_
The photo shows six people holding placards, with two more that have the backs turned to the camera. If those two are included, the total comes to eight.
Rob_
02-03-2009
size
Yes, it is not massive but it does show that people are willing to committ civil disobedience here as well. It was a small quickly organized event.
The larger protest will probably happen on April 26th at Burns Bog.
anarcho
02-03-2009
Put your money where your mouth is!
I have a suggestion for the climate change denier crowd. If you are so sure of your beliefs put your money where your mouth is. Let's start a list to which all deniers volunteer to append their name. Should they be victims of any disaster related to climate change, they will be refused aid. But I am sure just like the "free enterprize" types who clamour for government assistance when the economy goes in the toilet, our climate change deniers would otherwise be first in line crying for help. I say to hell with you. Your actions have helped to hold back any attempts at rectification, so you ought to pay the consequences when the time comes.
Des
02-03-2009
Global Warming
is real, is imminent, and is dangerous. The repercussions are already happening. Deniers are either delusional (not their fault) or paid (shame on them).
Name goes here
02-03-2009
Since when is science politics?
Climate science has become political science, and that's not a good thing. I'm quoting Thomas Friedman here, and he argues that scientists are generally afraid of being advocates, because scientists are generally cautious, tentative and careful, advocates are not afraid of being scientists.
Why can't we trust our scientists? Why do we believe our politicians?
snert
03-03-2009
Anachro
As a Canadian you are globally insignificant and here is why. The results below are generated by multiplying the population by the per capita tonnes of CO2 produced divided by the surface area, in square miles, of each country. The result is the tonnes per square mile we produce.
As a country we go from one of the worst producers to one of the best. Canada's biosphere may even be able to absorb a significant portion our own production.
Canada
33,570,000 x 5.6 / 3854085 = 4.88
US
305,905,000 x 6.0 / 3794066 = 483.8 [99.1 times higher]
China
1,321,851,888 x 1.3 / 3704427 = 463.9 [95.1 times higher]
India
1,147,995,904 x .3 / 1269210 = 271.3 [55.1 times higher]
Australia
21,585,178 x 5.2 / 2967909 = 4.5 [.9 times higher]
Japan
127,433,494 x 3.0 / 145883 = 262.1 [53.7 times higher]
There is no need for protests, just some common sense thinking on how to reduce our dependency on GHG producing fuels.
I think you should take your rant to China or India before unloading on Canadians. Don't forget to tell them you don't think they should get any aid for climate change disasters either.
Because we keep our population density low our burden on the planet is significantly less than that of the majority of the countries. Canada and Canadians are not the problem.
Disclaimer: The numbers used above are not precise and may vary depending on just which data set is used but the variation should not significantly alter the end results.
Dr Alexander
03-03-2009
Canadians are not having donuts....
We are having doughnuts, and beavertails.
Buy the way, I am having a doughnut to stimulate the economy.
snert
03-03-2009
OOPS!
I found a different source and was running the same formula for a new batch of countries and I discovered a couple of significant errors. Canada does not come out looking as good as in the original post but the new numbers still show the gist of what I am trying to put across.
Canada
33,570,000 x 5.6 / 3854085 = 48.77
US
305,905,000 x 6 / 3794066 = 483.8 [9.9 times higher]
China
1,321,851,888 x 1.3 / 3704427 = 463.9 [9.5 times higher]
India
1,147,995,904 x .3 / 1269210 = 271.3 [5.6 times higher]
Australia
21,585,178 x 5.2 / 2967909 = 37.81 [.76 of Canada]
Japan
127,433,494 x 3 / 145883 = 2620.5 [53.7 times higher]
These are corrected numbers from the original set. I had some trouble wrapping my head around the figures for Japan but it seems consistent for small heavily industrialised island nations. Great Britain and Germany are in the 1500/1600 tonnes/sq mi range.
Des
03-03-2009
Global Warming
Snert - It's still true that figures can lie and liars can figure. But what's your point in guesstimating CO2tonnes/sq.mile?
All that does is indicate that production of CO2 varies very considerably by country. Which only gives me more evidence for the variability of temperature and associated weather around the world. Which accounts nicely for drought and fire in Australia and unprecedented floods in Europe and sustained sleet storms along the east coast of North America and melting icecaps around the North/South Poles and...
Once the global (not local) warming trend is acknowledged it is not difficult to make the anthropocentric connection. Except for the contrarians amongst us, who would just as quickly dispute the fact the sky appears blue, arguing that sunrise and sunset proves it is really red.