History... And Public Opinion Is a Good Indicator...

After you resigned as the Socred MLA for Kamloops in late 1980, do you recall how the economy went into the tank in late 1981 and BC suffered a recession/mini-depression thereafter?

And then the May 5, 1983 election came along whereby the Socreds increased their popular vote and seat count at the expense of the NDP???

That's how silly and irrelevant the NDP in BC has now become. Fer instance... last year the NDP was haranguing the Libs for not having an expensive new roof in place for BC Place Stadium in time for the Olympics. Priorities, priorities.

Today, a year later the NDP is lambasting the Libs for the announcement and cost of a new roof for BC Place stadium post-2010. Wottttttt? :)

In any event, BC's penultimate [IMHO :)] pollster, Mustel, continues to confirm that the "Top Issue of Concern in BC" is the economy at ~42%. the next highest issue is waaayyyy back, the environment, at ~9%.

http://www.mustelgroup.com/top_issues.html

And Ipsos, back in November, again confirmed this finding:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=4177

That's a 22% spread in favour of the Libs on the economic issue.

And back in November ARS also confirmed the same finding regarding "Who Can Manage the Economy Effectively":

http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/polls-analysis/opinion-polls/angus-reid-poll-bc-ndp-has-five-point-lead-over-governing-bc-liberals

That's a 23% spread in favour of the Libs akin to the Ipsos numbers. I can't see that huge margin ever becoming overcome concerning the issue that is #1 on voter's minds. And forget about even bringing up the 1990's.

History... And Public Opinion Is a Good Indicator... #2

As for the current standings in political party preferences by Mustel:

http://www.mustelgroup.com/pdf/20090119.pdf

That's a phenomenal 14% spread in favour of the Libs, a dramatic turnaround from December, 2004 when the NDP was leading by a margin of 3% heading into the May, 2005 election. A 17% turnaround, as a matter of fact.

And based upon these same Mustel numbers, political prognosticator Bernard Schulmann had this analysis:

http://www.publiceyeonline.com/archives/003077.html

And again Bernard Schulmann had this further analysis just last week:

http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.com/2009/02/lay-of-land-for-may-2009-election.html

It's all in the same relative ballpark... a Lib landslide any way ya cut it.

BTW, that 33% standing by the NDP in the latest Mustel poll is what the BC NDP last achieved ~40 years ago at the ballot box in 1969 and pre-1969. [2001 being the exception, of course]

Rafe, I have no idea how you come to your conclusions in a reasonable and analytical manner. The tea leaves just ain't that hard to read. :)

There is only one accurate poll.....

Here it is

http://www.angus-reid.com/uppdf/2008.11.15_BCPolitics_1.PDF

80% of BCers believe Campbell is not trustworthy or honest,that will be the decider

Here is what a BC Liberal says...

Is going to win the election

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/
story/RTGAM.200901216.wcogibson17/BNStory/
specialComment/BritishColumbia/

Gord Gibson can read the tea leaves

messed up that link

I try again.....Gord Gibson says the NDP are Gonna win the election

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/
story/RTGAM.20090116.wcogibson17/BNStory/
specialComment/BritishColumbia/

Chickent nine: Sitting on the Fence

Mr. Mair, with all due respect, don't you think it is time for you to truly declare your support for the NDP? Everyone wants to be a pundit and there comes a time when we all must put forward our "best foot" and truly get involved with the party we have pledged to support.

If politics in BC is truly a "blood sport", why wouldn't you help Carol James win the next election, instead of continually criticizing her leadership.

Rubes. Suckers. Chumps. and Hicks.

The NDP should have a lot of fun with the big media spin that Campbell and his gang have some sort of business sense. Campbell himself is a school teacher, the current finance minister has a political science degree, the last finance minister was a photo journalist, the first finance minister alternately was a restaurant waiter and taught folks how to fly small airplanes, the industry minister sold real estate, the last energy minister used to sell used cars, Minister of Housing is a real estate agent that used to be a traffic cop etc etc.

By the time the May election rolls around, this gang of thugs will have committed taxpayers to somewhere around 60 billion dollars in power purchases at costs up to 12 cents a kwh, 2 to 3 times what it would cost BCHydro to develop it. BCHydro will be forced to buy the power at 12 cents a kwh when it peaks in the spring when we don't need it anyway and sell it on the export market competing with 2 cent a kwh nuclear. These are almost 100% capital cost projects with private hedge fund money coming in at 15% per annum and BCHydro's at 4% hence the 2 to 3 times Hydro cost.

Forecasts from Atomic Energy Canada for generation 3.5 nuclear are coming in at less than 3 cents a kwh with Hyperion's small nukes scheduled for 2011 deliveries at 2 cents a kwh and Paul Allen's small scale fusion technology at .5 cents.

Given that almost all of our forecasted needs can be met up to 10 years in the future, just by repatriating the Columbia treaty rights, changing demand forecasts or unforeseen nuclear power costs increases can be met by run of the river projects with a year or two lead time. A school girl running a lemonade stand would advise against this insane 60 billion commitment.

No doubt this is why Ralph Sultan P.Eng Electrical Phd former CEO of RBC Securities sits on the back bench while some ex BCTel cable puller with a high school diploma is the energy minister foolishly wasting tens of billions in taxpayer funds.

Forty billion dollars in waste compared to 400 million on fast ferries. As Bill Tieleman puts it, the Gordo and his gang of crackerjack business gurus have turned out to be Marks. Rubes. Suckers. Chumps. and Hicks.

quarry bay...

Yeah, but Gibson also refers to an old, out-of-date Mustel poll...

And he also states that STV will win approval in 2009. Now, the BC election results of 1996 (with the Libs winning the popular vote, but losing to the NDP) and the subsequent 2001 election whereby the Libs had a 77-2 majority was certainly influential in the 2005 STV referendum outcome.

And just prior to 2005, the Citizen's Assembly received wide media exposure regarding its recommended selection of STV.

Since then, and four years later, I'd reckon that, aside from political junkies, most people would equate STV with another television channel.

Seriously, people here don't think that STV will be passed in 2009, or do they? :)

And back to public opinion polls... whether that relates to political party preferences or changing the voting system such as STV. Former NDP political strategist Bill Tieleman acknowledges and says it best:

Did you hear Kevin Falcon....

on the Sean Leslie show today(sunday 4.00pm)

There was a very smart,cagey caller who made Falcon squirm,back track and fib.

The caller named Brian called at 4.20 pm,the caller was right,Falcon put both feet in his mouth,especially the part about Macquarie being a big part of the sea to sky highway consortium(Falcon said he wasn`t sure if they were,part of the consortium)
Falcon also waffled about the hundred million a year for Macquarie to maintasin the road to whistler.

listen to the CKNW audio vault,cue up 4.00 pm sundayfebuary 8th,fast forward to about 4.20 pm

http://cknwam.corusradionetwork.com/emmis/AudioVault.cfm

Falcon was lying.....fibbing.....

Falcon said,which was hilarious,"he was 99% sure that Macquarie isn`t part of the sea to sky highway consortium"

Falcon is the transportation minister,and he isn`t sure? lol lol

What is he hiding,what is Falcon afraid of,the truth about Macquarie will get out.

Perhaps these 2 stories might JOG FALCON`s memory about Macquarie being part of the sea to sky consortium.

http://www.roadtraffic-technology.com/projects/seatosky/

or this one

http://www.th.gov.ca/seatosky/documents/2005/061005_InfoBulletin.pdf

Falcon squirmed allright,everything falcon said contradicted his own words,the caller definatley out classed Falcon.

There is another chiken.............

..........that will come home to roost and that is the 'Trudeau' style one finger salute, Campbell and Falcon gave to valley taxpayers.

Campbell new monument to himself, the 10 lane (soon to be renamed Gordon Campbell Bridge), will cost at least $1.8 billion more than the original twinned bridge. All this, while the shaky Puttallo Bridge rogers on and on and on. The Puttallo needs replacing and Campbell & Co. will have nothing to do with it, but there is more.

Valley residents and politicians are waking up to the fact that they are being stiffed with taxes, paying for deluxe metros in Vancouver (SkyTrain & RAV), they want 'rail' transit too and for a fraction of the sum of SkyTrain, can have a Vancouver to Chilliwack interurban.

The $1.8 billion difference between 'old' twinned bridge and '10 lane' bridge would fund not just a Vancouver to Chilliwack interurban but separate LRT lines in Surrey, Langley, and Abbotsford!

http://railforthevalley.wordpress.com/2009/02/06/premier-campbell-kevin-falcon-flips-the-bird-to-the-valley/

Getting back to the issue;

Getting back to the issue; Did you hear Gordo'd explanation for the high unemployment last Friday? It was classic baffle-gabb, would have done any politian proud, but the average BC citizen is getting frightened and they'll be willing to deal with the devil they know. When the election gets into full swing just watch Gordo's professional liars go into full swing and the average voter will forgive the Liberals and vote the buggers back in. Another reason they'll get back in is because a good portion of the voter's are cynical of the whole mess and will just stay at home, which again suits the liberals. Prediction; 55% voter turn out.

BC Rail ... "Some chicken. Some neck."

Rafe has it right, in my view. But I keep wondering what a new government can do in these dire circumstances to put British Columbia back on track (so to speak).

And BC Rail is the first big fat chicken coming home to roost. You forgot that, Rafe?

How should a new government meet that particular challenge when the 5th anniversary of the signing of that secret deal rolls around on July 12, 2009 and the whole panoply of further secret gifts becomes apparent??

How much general support would they have, if it's discovered that a new BC government might be able to exercise an option to re-possess the BCR operation?

Will there be even a loonie left, with which to hire the lawyers or conduct the buy-backs?

The whole set-up (and I mean, set-up) looks awesomely abysmal to me.

It was Winston Churchill who said it ...

Churchill addressed the Canadian House of Commons at the worst period of WWII when he was Prime Minister of Britain and Adolf Hitler riding high had promised the world that he would deal with Britain by wringing its neck like a chicken.

"Some chicken," said Churchill to an appreciative rumble from the assembled Canadian MPs. Dramatic pause. Then "Some neck!" to a mighty roar of approval.

At university, I also learned that "Some neck!" carries an overt meaning.

Which goes to show that it's important to pay attention to what the pols say, now and then. And to analyse what they say. Things like "I will sell BC Rail" which became "I will not sell BC Rail" which covertly became not-a-sale-but-999-year-lease, but which could still revert to public ownership and people will say "Some railway, that BC Rail. Some people, those British Columbians."

Why not? Are we more helpless than the British were -- broke, hungry, blockaded, with no allies and threatened by a Nazi invasion -- at the worst period of World War Two?

Carole James is the weak

Carole James is the weak link. If the NDP had a strong leader and a better communicator the NDP could of won in May, now I predict unfortunately El Gordo will do quite well.

You mean ... ?

Dan,

Tell me you don't mean that yes, British Columbia is indeed more helpless than Britain was, at the worst of World War Two?

And that, if facing a similar threat (which, in my view, we are), we'd just say "Oh, it's the NDP's fault" ... sigh ... and reach for another chocolate while watching Fox news?

Carol James

First of all, Carol James isn't a weak leader. I'll admit she started off a little shakey, but she has become a much better leader in her eight years in opposition.

Even if she can't agree that she is a strong leader, why would you vote for Campbell again? Campbell's agenda is clear and its very scary.

Gordo's a fool / liar / criminal or d (all of the above)

Great article Rafe! Missed many more chickens, but its a start. Consider at least 10 percent of gordo's gang have quit, most of them because of involvement with unsavory characters. Five years of waiting, The "Raid on the Ledge", is a crime in itself. It is time for him to go! Give us back our province.

Rafe

Good article Rafe although you missed lots of chickens, obvious ones such as driving drunk and not so obvious ones such as ignoring the report as to why abused kids don't receive the help they need.

But as you know from your radio days, Campbell's base is the half the province that votes for Manning-Day-Harper and they don't care about any of the problems you mention. All they want to hear is that their taxes will be low, that what they do pay more than comes back to them and that none of it goes to kids that aren't theirs. On that score Campbell is indeed their man.

Questions

I am still upset about the NDP rule about giving female candidates an advantage!

Maybe next we will be required to replace a female leader with another female leader as well?

What is wrong with a level playing field?

What is wrong with allowing the local members to decide who seem the most competent candidate.

CampBull's Chicken Soup

The main chicken: Mere months ago both the Campbell and Harper governments, conjoined twins that they are, declared all was valley girl reallllllly, realllllly, rosy when it came to the economic future of both BC and Canada..

And it isn't that they and their cohorts were not able to foresee the recession....(foresee?....that's giving them much too much credit). No, it was that they and those they reallllly reallllly represent are the ones that have caused this grand economic mess.... through their own so-called "policies". Running-on empty policies based on nothing more than sheer self-interest. Arrogant policies and policies completely bereft of foresight or compassion.....that basically amount to what Frank summed up in this way:

Quote:

"they don't care about any of the problems you mention. All they want to hear is that their taxes will be low, that what they do pay more than comes back to them and that none of it goes to kids that aren't theirs."

They ( Harper, Campbell, Bush.... and The Company They Keep) built this recession/depression....brick by brick.

They built it intentionally top-heavy.... in their own self-interest...and into an unstable, dangerously leaning tower of greed.

Now like the characterless and cowardly architects that they are, they are trying to disassociate themselves from the pathetic monster of their own creation.... just as it is about to keel over.

Unnecessary sewage treatment in Victoria is another chicken!

No doubt about it, but that $1.2 billion mega-sewage scheme planned to ruin Victoria is another chicken coming home to roost - and goodness knows what else! Only reason why Campbell and Penner are ignoring science and informed public opinion about the issue is that their business buddies wanna make nice with the Yankee tourist promoters. Responsible Sewage Treatment Victoria (www.rstv.ca) has done extensive reporting of scientists and public health officials against the sewage mega-scheme. Now, even those who support the stupid scheme should know that Penner is bypassing the need for a sound environmental impact assessment (BCEAA-level) and going for a sham process under the Municipal sewage regs. What a joke!

Domestic Violence

Premier raises his salary by 54%. MLA's get a 29% raise. Senior bureaucrats up to 45% lift.

HEU members see their contracts ripped up illegally, 15% salary reduction ... the Supreme Court sides with the union ... but what came out of that?

Minimum wage has been frozen since 2001.
Child poverty the worse in the country.

Olympic costs skyrocketing. Convention Center is double the original estimates.

And the Libs are ahead in the polls.

" Even though he hits me from time to time I know deep down he really loves me."

Excellent commentary Rafe

Thanks Rafe for a clear and fair outline of the dangerous situation our province faces; oblivious to the enormous scale and pace of our fiscal decline voters deserve a honest report that leads them to grasp the perils ahead.

Possibly the most positive result of fixed election dates is allowing voters much more time to gather information essential toward a more comfortable decision. Too often we regret votes made in haste or what we percieve as the lesser evil.

The public has more time to exploit a dazzling choice in the method and source of media providing them more depth on more issues.

It is amusing to find partisans pointing to stale polls in early feb. to convince
us of a liberal landslide. Reminds me of "mission accomplished" and a failed presidency.

For you, Stump

Jimmy Pattison finished high school and was a college dropout.

Carole James, like Jimmy Pattison, finished high school.

George Bush attended Ivy League Universities: BA-History, Yale; MBA, Harvard.

Campbell, like Bush attended an Ivy League school: BA-English, Dartmouth, He attended UBC law school and dropped out. He then went to Simon Fraser - took 3 years to complete an MBA.

St Mary's Hospital and more

A few more chickens....

St Mary's Hospital....

Just a big hole in the ground now. Has been for years. Did thousands of procedures a year. Once it closed down Royal Columbian and Surrey Memorial started having emergency room overload problems even worse than before.

Now the tax payers are paying for a new hospital in Surrey Green Timbers, supposed to be nature preserve area, which would not have been needed if St Mary's had not been destroyed by the Campbell government, despite all the protests of people from both sides of the Fraser. This Liberal government, does not listen and just wastes our money.

And cancelled daycare programs, cancelled PNE relocation to North Surrey, and cancelled Photo Radar - lots more speed racing murders in the news these days it seems, and cutbacks to hospital workers wages, and social welfare cutbacks - so desperate people get more desperate - and petty crimes jump up stealing copper wire, ministry of families cut backs, ALR losses, cancelled Translink accountability, etc., etc., etc.

The Liberals took away so much and then make huge announcements when giving a bit back like they are doing something brilliant, but we are so far behind from where we were. It will be years to catch up. But there is all kinds of money for their salaries for doing what because legislature keeps getting cancelled.... and lots of money to build freeways that will destroy our environment, and harm people's health, cost us decades of tolls, send taxpayers money to profits for banks from other countries but barely any for transit - which most people want.

Do the liberals think people are going to forget? These are flocks of chickens coming home to roost.

Carol James is great when

Carol James is great when she shows passion, and absolutely dismal as, at the last two BC Fed conventions, she reads from a script.

Puzzling that absolutely no one on this thread mentioned the Liberals presiding over the decline of the forest industry despite a booming economy. That seems like a nice easy line for the NDP to use.

still to come....

We still have a few more years of spiraling tax increases on gasoline which is set to reach its fruition in 2012.

In light of current economic crisis, Campbell’s gas tax “for the environment” turns out to be even more of an asinine move in that it’s not only an added tax burden, but also inflationary. That’s all we need is higher taxes - especially those which ultimately raise the cost of living.

Turkeys disguised as chickens

Living in the northeast has produced more large chickens(trukeys) coming home to roost as well as the others mentioned above. Not necessarily in order of importance. Give-away of BC Rail= no trailer on flat car service or any other service for that matter which kept construction costs competitive on every major project since tracks were laid into the Peace.
The almost $Billion giveaway in so-called royalty credit incentives(subsidies) to hugely profitable natural gas producers, without some sort of link to BC employment.
Removal of wiegh scales from border locations in the NOrtheast and de-staffing of others while building a new $26 Million scale between Prince George and Quesnel, allowing severe non-compliance by out of province traffic and job losses for BC carriers.
Dokie Wind farm in CCAA and no effort by BC hydro to take over and complete, even though through BCTC the taxpayer/ratepayer will be on the hook for a $19 MIllion dollar swithing facility.
No effort to repair South Taylor Hill on the Alaska HIghway which will end up at the bottom of the valley soon.
Adoption of an outsiders rule policy as far as any oil and gas issues go. Can't we choose our own destiny on resource management.
Complete bungling of landowner issues as they pertain to oil and gas access.
Lack of enforcement of PST payments by "visiting" job poachers.Important one would think for a cash strapped government.
Time constraints prevent continuing, but you get the idea.