Topic
Will politicians vying to lead BC forthrightly address two key fears?
Premier Clark explaining to the Business Council of BC province's plans to sell liquified natural gas to China.
Blasting shale rock with toxic fluid can release riches in natural gas, but threatens critical water supplies.
I am a lawyer, not a scientist or an engineer. My task is to ask questions. Today's questions should be dealt with by the two leading contending B.C. parties before the May election but my guess is that they will trust the public to remain basically uninformed thus unable to provoke any political issues.
Revenues to our government largely come from our resources. Fish are in the dumper and forestry, a big player, is subject in large measure to exports, largely to the United States, whose appetite depends on housing starts which in turn depend upon consumers having enough money to build houses. If you believe that the U.S. faces worsening financial problems, you are forced to imagine a less than rosy picture for lumber markets below the line.
Regardless of what I've noted so far, the cash cow for the B.C. government has been, and hopefully will be, natural gas.
Risk one: What if boom goes bust?
But the volatile price commanded for natural gas makes planning problematic, to say the least.
Finance Minister Michael de Jong, at a recent press conference stated, "Government will need to find $241 million in 2012-13, $389 million in 2013-14 and $483 million in 2014-15 to manage the natural gas market impact on royalty revenues. Government is committed to implementing measures to mitigate the impacts of declining natural gas revenues and deliver a balanced budget in 2013-14 as required by law."
My obvious first questions are, "Can we find these revenues and, considering the questions I'm about to raise, how and where from?"
The new kid on the block is fracking where one drills vertically through shale then horizontally and using water laced with chemicals, drives the gas up drill holes to be captured and piped.
B.C. has two major shale gas plays, one at Montney, near Fort St John, and another at Horn River in the northeast corner of the province.
As I see it, normally these finds would be great news -- if not for the fact that these reservoirs are being discovered all over the world. Indeed, reserves exist right across Canada and in the United States.
The gas game has and will be hugely altered -- Bazhenov, in Russia, is a humungous shale oil and gas reserve, and China itself has huge reserves.
To put it mildly, cheaper natural gas found by fracking is driving world prices down to where B.C. can likely expect fewer customers for less of their natural gas. If the price goes too low, it may keep companies from investing further in the costs of production.
Risk two: Fracking's impacts
Now some questions for Premier Clark and NDP Leader Adrian Dix.
Before we get into monetary questions, what are the water requirements to accomplish the fracking process? We know that huge quantities of water are required. Where will it come from?
Considering the amount of chemicals put into this water, where will it go?
What about the link researchers are finding between fracking and earth tremors?
None of these questions have been answered and common sense tells us that the answers to these questions should be required before any drilling approvals.
Demand answers
Back to the obvious monetary question. With market-skewing matters happening so quickly around the world, will we have any viable reservoirs ourselves when our overseas customers either have their own gas or reservoirs much closer than we are?
How will Finance Minister de Jong deal with proposed gas revenues in his upcoming budget?
After the fraudulent 2009 election budget which fell $1.2 billion short, how can Minister de Jong assure us that despite falling gas prices he's still going to present a balanced budget?
Is it just barely possible -- I know that this is a naive question -- that the BC Liberal government will evaluate the situation, speak frankly and truthfully to the public, saying that we're in trouble, and then lay out a plan to make the best of it?
We the public are entitled to know the answers to these questions.
Alas, I fear that Christy Clark and Adrian Dix will prefer to see these and other allied questions slither past the May election.
It will be the task of the media -- all of it -- to hold the government's feet to the fire and extract the truth, in detail, and not try to finesse the matter past voting day. ![[Tyee]](http://thetyee.cachefly.net/ui/img/ico_fishie.png){kind=small}
Read more: Energy, Politics, Labour + Industry, BC Politics, BC Election 2013,
15
Login or register to post comments
Hugh
16 weeks ago
Fracking for natural gas
Fracking for natural gas pollutes and wastes fresh water. Converting the gas to LNG wastes precious renewable, non-CO2-emitting hydro power.
LNG projects would need Site C, which would flood agricultural land, and cost BC Hydro (the public) an estimated $8 billion.
Wasting water, wasting public money, wasting renewable energy and flooding agricultural land - makes no sense.
igbymac
16 weeks ago
No, it is not possible, RM
You guys are complete suckers for punishment, aren't you? How many times does someone or the government lie to you and you still believe them? The state is not your child in trouble with the law. You don't have to keep supporting it or keep thinking there is hope it shall change and start telling the truth about matters. It won't.
Not this government. And nor will any government put into power under the Party system operating in our capitalist-democratic model.
Feverish
16 weeks ago
Rafe?!
You are sounding all too hopeful. Big media will not hold anyone to account, that will be left up to smaller players and individuals. We are talking pensions prestige and the premiership so getting elected is the goal, not making radical change that will alienate a comfortable majority in the voting 'consumer class.'
As far as the fracking fouling and felching of our land, it has got to be exposed, halted and replaced with something sustainable - just like our electoral financial and monetary systems.
Fracking is poisoning the land and water - it cannot be considered sustainable or 'clean' and should be made illegal! Any projects requiring a new pipeline in this province (including run of river hydro) should be banned immediately. Let's start with fracking in 2013.
http://www.gaslandthemovie.com/
Hughes
16 weeks ago
Conspiring, colluding and coniving
"It will be the task of the media -- all of it -- to hold the government's feet to the fire and extract the truth, in detail, and not try to finesse the matter past voting day."
With the MSM and the BC Scoundrel Party conspiring, colluding, and coniving to maintain their tenous grip on power and relevance - they so deserve each other - I'm hopeful the alternative news sources will prevail.
gilbert marks
16 weeks ago
Wrong
"cheaper natural gas found by fracking are driving world prices"
Only in North American and here only because Big Oil is massively dumping it to force a coal to natural gas conversion.
The cost of fracked gas is 3 times the current North American selling price and producers are dropping like flies.
Here's the experts at Forbes on the subject.
"8-natural-gas-were-right-on-schedule"
To add to overseas fracking developments, we need to keep in mind that Japan will be firing up all its nukes over the next 2 years and building new ones, and China and India are starting massive nuke build programs.
China has also started its penny a kwh pebble bed machine for 2017 service with 70% of its output dedicated to synfuel production estimated at 25 cents a liter for cement plant based diesel/jet/methanol and propane like zero carbon ammonia. Add 40 cents a liter for carbon neutral seawater based diesel/jet.
So North American prices tripling and world prices dropping likely meeting in the middle at $10/mcf as predicted by Forbes.
No need for LNG export by 2020.
Frank
16 weeks ago
I don't get it
NG is simply not that valuable and entails costs that most reasonable people wouldn't want to pay.
Its just another way of the 0.01% enriching themselves from a public resource and leaving us with the mess.
Fiat lux
16 weeks ago
China may have huge reserves
China may have huge reserves of natural gas, as have many countries, but where is the water going to come from for their fracking idiocies, when they, and virtually the whole world is already running short of water even for drinking?
Another question is, for what is that natural gas supposed to be used for? More energy waste to produce more garbage that already is choking the world ?
Our politicians and the priesthood of so called "economists" are still living in history's traditional dream world of faith based idiocies and we can only hope that humanity may just wake up one day and get rid of them to save lives and whatever is left of our so called "civilization"
Ed Deak.
Skywalker
16 weeks ago
Maybe it is all about getting ...
...the quick bucks before the market collapses. It wouldn't be the first time the public paid for a scheme like that.
I guess every candidate should be asked this question and if you get a boilerplate answer go elsewhere.
virimpig
16 weeks ago
LNG
I thought the Liquified Natural Gas marker is already weakening and will bust in a few short years?
Fiat lux
16 weeks ago
Just watched a bit, the news
Just watched a bit, the news had nothing else, of Obama's inauguration parade and was very proud to hear the the Canadian embassy was giving out thousands of "Canada mittens"
We must to sell our resources at any cost so we can buy "Canada mittens", "Made in China" for our great politicians to give away.
Ed Deak.
cyberclark
16 weeks ago
LNG exports is a farce.
When the price of gas was over 15.00 per gj we were told it was too expensive to export; that we needed it all.
In Alberta gas was shut in; wells not allowed to produce because the gas ws need for the Oil Sands productions.
Its hard to see what is real!
Oil lately said they could make money on gas that was priced at 3.45 gj. This, providing they did not have to pay for any of the infrastructure.
Last week Cushing Texas sitting on the Ocean and a new find of natural gas that dwarfs Alberta and BC combined, finds it cannot sell the stuff. No markets. Indonesia and the Philippians seems to have the market covered.
Christie is just making noises like she is busy and full of great ideas I don't buy any of it!
cyberclark
16 weeks ago
LNG exports a farce. PS
One last thing.
We are in the high winter demands now and gas barley hitting 3.45 and that only occasionally.
Gas is expected to drop to 2.50 or less over the summer. As I said above I don't buy any of it.
It could be a gambit to build a gas pipline to the coast then, ship oil in it.
Jeff Munroe
16 weeks ago
Mini-Me Harper, Clarke is
It's easy to see why cynicism can be so easily found when looking at Clark. First of all, she doesn't care about using expenses for flying, for wasting it on useless ads promoting an industry that frankly has plenty of money of its' own and doesn't need her spending millions on campaigns to convince people who aren't capable of grasping the one simple thought that burning any fossil fuel or related gas pollutes, and the words 'cleaner burning' is akin to declaring that using a sharper knife to cut your wrist won't hurt as much when you kill yourself slowly.
Clark is using virtually a word-for-word script out of Harper's 'professional politician' manual, and it has to be patently obvious to even the least astute person. She is only interested in one thing, and it's keeping her job. That's it.
Natural Gas is not 'tomorrow's energy', it's last century's tech. 'Tomorrow's energy' is far less polluting, far more innovative, and she's counting on BC's version of the tarsands to win her support.
And yet, with a provincial push to actually create greener options, she could create just as many jobs if not more, since we do have one of the best schools in the world in the U of BC, and stop exporting our brains, our ideas, and our jobs and stop importing slaves from other countries to work in mines and building pipelines for half-wages that nobody wants in the first place.
And the only reason why Chinese workers even want to come here is because they can temporarily make a fortune compared to what they would normally make, and go back to China and spend it there in their southern provinces.
Otherwise, they'd move up to the cities in Inner Mongolia similar to the Northern BC climate and live/work there in brand-new cities that are primarily empty (just Google 'Ghost Cities of China' for context on that story).
Incidently, that last story is also what many economists call the 'canary in the coalmine' as to why we shouldn't count on China for exports. Or the US, given our dollar and Obama's view on climate change.
rangerkim
16 weeks ago
critical thinking
You are forgiven Rafe, for your lack of scientific and economic expertise because you are a lawyer, and not well-trained in such fields. However you are trained to not just "ask questions" but to critically evaluate the answers and to derive rational conclusions. Neither of which is on great display here, sorry to say; I am a great fan of yours Rafe.
There is absolutly no virtuous justification for this generation taking this resource and spending the generated wealth on it's own corporeal wants and needs. This discussion is yet another dialectic that ignores, and indeed even promotes the theft of resources that should and could be for the benefit of all peoples, extant and yet to come. Our blind greed for more and better entertainment, bigger and faster private transportation, bigger and more convenient Starbucks allows for the largest share of this wealth to go to the 1%; this is a problem for sure. The greater issue surely is the giant rip-off of future generations.
This is not merely a theoretical discussion either. Witness Norway, notably but even Alaska or any number of other jurisdictions, for rational intergenerational fairness of a petroleum resource. Even witness FDR's New Deal for intergenerational fairness in our own time in our own culture.
Rafe, this is the kind of analysis that I expect from you. My poor scribblings and incoherent analysis does not do justice to this issue but this focus on the rewards in the here and now makes me despair.
Hakuin
16 weeks ago
Pillars of integrity
http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/energy-resources/Griffiths+Energy+million+fine+bribing/7856378/story.html?__lsa=2cb0-11ff