local research, definitely

That's a good point gardensnake. If people have specific knowledge of a local riding that looks like it might swing, then that should be their guide.

Another close-to-home example is Saanich Gulf Islands, where the Liberal is no longer the leading opposition candidate despite what the site says -- according to the polls it's Elizabeth May, and that campaign would be a fine candidate for strategic donation.

If a person was looking to donate and *didn't* have specific knowledge to go by, I'd suggest that looking at the results of the last election is a much-better-than-nothing way to spot places the Conservatives are vulnerable. That's what's on offer at the site.

Just vote the guy out!

Harper is slowly dismantling Canada. If it continues, Canada will become a country we "won't recognize anymore."

1) "Why The Harper Government Mismanages The Economy" (article)
2) "Harper Government Stifles Freedom of Speech" (article)
3) "Harper Government: Privatize Medicare" (article) and more..

My federal politics blog: clearpolitics.wordpress dot com

(Click "About" re reading posts, or on my picture.)
@Rolf_Auer

Welcome to the fray!

Hey Mitchell,
I love Swing 33 and give you full credit for this unique idea.
I am working with the Catch 22 campaign that is complimentary to your initiative. We have been registered with Elections Canada and are organizing in many of the same ridings you list.
Good Luck!

Better idea!

When it comes to donating money, I trust nobody!

If you want to see fairness, then support proportional representation!

Here's a good example how

Here's a good example how and why the conservative/fascists are winning and why they want to do away with the public support of parties:

During the last elections, in our Cariboo-Prince George riding, the useless, perennial Reform/Conservative seatwarmer, Dick Harris spent $73,476 and gained 55%, the NDP spent $14,990 and got 25%, Liberals spent $5,010. Greens $10.

In four union towns, with the good unionists voting for a party with the policy intention to wipe out unions...............

Ed Deak.

Great Article But......

Get out and vote. Recent polls show that the cons are pulling ahead, yet various articles indicate that 2 out of three voters will NOT vote conservative. Strange then that the popular media is suggesting that the cons will win a majority, I mean seriously folks do they really want that?, Most everyday folks do not want Harper in a majority and on the flip side voters are tired of the dysfunctional government we have in place now. Both the Liberals and the NDP have strong accountable platforms and serve Canadians better than the Conservative plan(s), do we really all want more corporate welfare, rich tax giveaways that help almost no one and a government that cares very little about social programs, health care etc?. Although elections are somewhat tiresome to an already fatigued electorate it is our system and voters need to understand why it's important to vote. Voter apathy is an issue but it's one the cons are counting on. I like Iggy's plan, although it's somewhat a re-hash of some previous ideas it's affordable and do able.

"Conservative donors now

"Conservative donors now outnumber Liberal contributors almost three to one..."

It helps when many Conservative voters are already used to donating a portion of their income to their church and through coersion and fearmongering they are encouraged to be generous.

Polls

Expect the mainstream media which is corporate owned to present all kinds of polling numbers showing Harper leading. Why would they not. Jim 1966 is right. Conservatives will be voting. It is up to the rest of us and it will do no good to make excuses about proportional representation and all that other stuff. If Harper wins a majority, there won't be much in Canada worth voting for.

Today's Nanos Tracking Poll for BC

With change from 2008 result in brackets:

CPC: 49.7% (+5.7%)
Lib: 23.4% (+4.4%)
NDP: 20.6% (-4.4%)
Green: 5% (-5%)

If these numbers hold on election day, the Cons will gain seats and get its majority here in BC, the Liberals will keep what they have, and the NDP will lose half its seats.

Fine journalism

Excellent, unbiased and balanced coverage from the Tyee, as usual.

What About The Undecided Percentage

Cool Hand, thanks for these polling stats, have you got some numbers for the undecided that were polled?

cheers
jim1966

Harper is Canada's scary prime minister

I don't know of another politician that scares people the way Harper's government does.
Canadians talk about a Conservative majority like it was the end of the world. And Harper winning a minority like the return of Jayson from "Friday 13". Harper has plenty of cash because he strokes the rich folks. Harper gives plenty of tax breaks, and corporate give aways, while business breaks all the rules.
It is little doubt the rich and their media don't want anyone interfering in their game.
Especially a government representative of the people where business would pay its own way instead of burdening the tax payer with further debt.

Saanich Gulf Islands

I think you must be crazy to say that the Liberals are the choice to beat Gary Lunn in Saanich Gulf Islands. A fully funded campaign and nationally known party leader running in a riding poled to be the most willing to elect a Green, especially the leader of the Green Party, and specifically Elizabeth May, who is found to pole neck and neck with Gary Lunn ought to be reasons to pick the Green Party as the party able to beat Gary Lunn.

Briony Penn was an ex-Green who garnered and increased her vote due to her environmental reputation. But she was not credible and carried herself poorly on camera and in interviews. In sum, she was a very unskilled politician. Elizabeth May may not be the most skilled politician but she defiantly has the experience and the smart wit to give Gary the biggest run for his money.

Please do justify the reasoning for saying that the Liberals are the choice for this ridding.

RE: gardensnake

I am also in this riding and confirm what gardensnake has said 100%. Randall Garrison has beat Troy DeSouza before, and he is the best hope for winning. If this site doesn't do some local research, it could have the complete opposite effect of its intention.

Catch 22 Harper Conservatives

There actually isn't a whole lot of substantive information provided in the Swing 33 campaign as to why voters should follow the recommendations.
Indeed, some of the recommendations contradict current polling information regarding candidates including the strength of parties in the ridings. A better researched grass roots campaign is Catch 22 Harper Conservatives. I would suggest browsing that site and coming to a decision. Case in point, voting for the liberal candidate in Saanich Gulf Islands ensures the vote is split between the liberals and the greens thus ensuring another Gary Lunn conservative victory. I will be making a contribution to one or more candidates but they will not be based on the haphazard and scant information provided by Swing 33.

Swing away

This concept will turn our opposition-based politics on its head. Politicians no longer need a party affiliation to fund campaigns when individuals can vote for and fund the person, not the party, based on their platform. Opposition politics do not serve the public, the future of Canadian politics lies in collaboration of independent representatives who are accountable to their voters. Good job!

whats next

Is harpo mimicking campbell or was it the other way around??
Which ever way it went they are clones.
BC told scampbell what they think we can do it to harpo as well
Harpo wasted billions of dollars on ?
while he voted no when the question of getting rid child poverty
HOW About
concern for the voters / taxpayers
tax dollars into the health care system
less waste of money
less giving to the rich and big business
Did you see Utube harpo insulting John Lennon's imagine

New Westminster--Coquitlam

swing33.ca shows New Westminster--Coquitlam as being a swing riding because the NDP won by only 3% in the 2008 election. However, there was a by-election held in 2009 that the NDP won by nearly 14% over the Conservatives. While this one could be closer than the 2009 by-election, I don't think it's going to be as close as 3%. Judging from the lawn sign war, this one's a shoe-in for Donnelly and the NDP.

Saanich and the Islands

adamsaab was right when he talks about Elizabeth May being the alternative that can beat Gary Lunn in Saanich and the Islands. However, he is wrong about the reasons that Briony Penn lost last time. The NDP candidate had withdrawn after the ballots were printed, but the night before the election hundreds - perhaps thousands - of people (including myself) got robocalls from someone purporting to be from the NDP, urging them to get out and vote NDP. The calls couldn't be traced to Lunn, but one wonders. The NDP vote plus the liberal vote combined were more than Lunn's vote. Environmentalists are very strong in this riding, which is why Brionny did well. Elizabeth May has much more chance than the Liberal of beating Lunn - please do some local investigation!

Democracy = go and vote

I think this is a very good start as this gives out some more information on the weekspots that needs attention.

However,I'm not sure how much this is going to influence the young voters as more likely they won't have money to shed out to support a political party. Perhaps they need to be encouraged in a different way to get involved (twitter? facebook? is the most likely places for them to hang out?)

I find it still very puzzling that the majority don't understand how much politics influence their lives and their livehood. And it doesn't matter how much their vote can change things it still counts and may change some things.

Look at the rich and well off - they go and vote. And they vote for a government that is willing to support them like the Conservatives did. The rich did not experience tax increase and joblessness in teh last 3 years, or did they? Corporations got huge tax cuts. Of course they will go and vote and support the party.

And what do the majority do? They stay home because ??? ... not interested? ... or feel sorry for themselves that nothing is changing?
Well, sitting home won't change anything. It will only give more power to those who shouldn't have any at all.

I don't know about you but in my opinion anyone who is not interested to vote basically is not interested in his/her life.

Like it or not politics do influence your life and your livehood.

If you don't get it I would suggest to all the non-voters to move to Lybia and experience the struggle that comes with democracy.

Does anybody have a rational

Does anybody have a rational explanation why unionists in union towns are constantly voting Reform/Conservative ?

I'm not a Liberal voter, but looking at the body language of the leaders, I predict that Iggy will wipe the floor with Harpo in the TV debate.

Elizabeth May was the best in the last debate, but Harpo won, for all practical purposes, with a perennial sarcastic grin on his face, because the two major opponents have been very poor debaters.

We'll also see the resignation of two present party leaders after the elections.

Ed Deak,

The current polls for BC and Ontario

Just for information purposes..

Leger
Cons 40
NDP 28
Libs 19
Grn 12

Nanos
Cons 50
Libs 23
NDP 21
Grn 5

Ekos
Cons 38
Libs 24
NDP 20
Grn 14

For Ontario

Leger
Cons 39
Libs 34
NDP 17
Grn 10

Nanos
Cons 43
Libs 38
NDP 16
Grn 3

Ekos
Cons 42
Libs 32
NDP 16
Grn 8

Thanks Frank

Obviously, there's something seriously wrong with those polls.

I think it's way too early to start placing bets.

For one thing, those polls

For one thing, those polls shouldn't be allowed during elections, as many people vote for the leaders in the polls, because they have no clue and believe that others must know who is best.

In any case, they can be warped by the locations of the phone numbers.

Ed Deak.

GWest

There is indeed. When you have one pollster saying the Cons have 38% support and another saying they have 50% support, well, only one of them can be right.

Fiat Lux

The Leger poll has 3 times the sample size of the Nanos poll.

Also, the Leger poll is done online, Nanos makes phone calls.

Up to us to decide who's more credible. I'll take Leger.

jim1966

I don't know what the level of undecideds was in the Nanos poll but Leger says 3,112 out of 3,549 people were "decided".

Democracy = go and vote

Democracy = go and vote

Democracy = go and vote

Democracy = go and vote

This is the real message and where it counts at the polls not assuming as some are noticeably doing.

jim1966

My last post was less than accurate. The number 400+ that didn't answer were "I don't know"s.

43% of those that selected a party also said they may change their vote before election day.

So really only 1,556 people answering that poll were solid in their decision.

Polls

Several months ago I was curious about who these Conservative voters are. I found a site that described them, typically (but, not exclusively, of course) as
- male.
- elderly (no definition of elderly 55+ 65+?).
- high school education on average.
(And I must add, I have known blue-collar workers and public servants who vote Conservative and are proud of it!.... sigh).
The same site said that Greens tend to be under 25. Everyone else, including women and people with higher education, tend to float around. The younger the person, the less likely they are to have a landline (negating phone polls in this respect)and even access to email as they tend towards the social media sites. I remember the "At Issue" group (CBC) discussing how polls have not been as accurate as they once were. I hope that is true given the results shown in these comments.

As a resident of Esquimalt

As a resident of Esquimalt Juan de Fuca, I know that Gardensnake is absolutely right.

In addition, in the last election, NDP ran an extremely weak candidate, and I know that many normal NDPers voted for the Liberal Keith Martin (who also had a large personal following) strategically. The neophyte replacing Martin will not have his coat-tails (including from old reformers who supported him from the get-go). Let's also remember that Randall Garrison was runner up in the two previous elections.

I also agree with adamsaab about the Saanich Gulf-Islands Campaign. So do the Swing33 folks, whose website indicates that this constituency is an exception to their extremely limited numerical criterion.

At a more general level, do Swing33 mean to insult our intelligence by promoting their simple numerical criterion without providing additional relevant information and analysis? They obviously expect us to follow like sheep. A responsible shepherd tshould identify the most likely candidate to defeat Harper, not just what happened in ONE election a few years ago

Finally, another flea in my ear. Why pay so much attention to tiny-sample polls of the whole province. What counts is individual constituencies.

Elizabeth May neck and neck 32% vs 34% cons

URGENT! the star Liberal candidate Brionny Penn who almost unseated Gary Lunn - Conservative in the Saanich/Gulf Islands is NOT running again. The Liberals have put forward a very nice person with NO CHANCE of winning. Thet have switched their resources to other ridings... wisely. May is the one to back here. The latest McCallister poll is 34% Lunn, 32% May,17% Lib and 17% NDP. May is just around the corner. and history in the making as a Green wins first seat ever.

Harris-Decima

HD released their new poll today. It was done over 2 weeks, Half the sample one week and half the next.

In the first week the Cons had a double digit lead on the Libs. The second week however showed big Liberal gains.

National currently
Cons 35
Libs 28
NDP 17
Grns 8

Ontario over a 2 week polling period
Cons 41
Libs 33
NDP 17
Grn 8

BC over a 2 week polling period
Cons 34
NDP 28
Libs 23
Grn 13

So Leger and Harris-Decima both put the NDP solidly in second place in BC.

Please note that Leger polls over 3,000 people and HD over 2,000 whereas Nanos polls 400 a night. With Nanos we're getting lots of ups and downs.

Still Alot Of People Are Undecided

Or so it seems. I guess the leaders debates coming up on April 12/11 & April 14/11 will hopefully present us all with a more clearer picture of who or what party platform we want. Looking at the Harris Decima poll released today (National) the cons are leading only by 7% which can be overtaken by the Libs or the NDP, bottom line for me though is what Harper & Co have done and not done while they have been in office. Too much alleged corruption, the backing of the HST in BC should not be forgotten either as this I think is a major election issue. Mr Harper to me is arrogant, uncaring and solely for the elite class, big business and the like. I am proud to be a Canadian and I am just as proud that as a citizen I can vote freely for whomever I wish. I think that in essence that is what I and other voters are encouraging people to do. (Many posts here prove that!)Of course most people understand that a poll is really just a snapshot of that particular moment and nothing more, just as when we all vote it's a snapshot of what we all want. I applaud the students in eastern Canada today that not only will vote but encourage young people to get out and vote as well. That is a HUGE step forward. If students or young people voted and the other million or so low income folks voted any party could win a majority in Canada. Thank heavens that we have the Tyee to express that right.

we're loving the input

Thanks to everybody who has pointed out weak spots in our historico-mathematical analysis. Especially with regards to Saanich Gulf Islands -- we've made a clear note of that. New Westminster--Coquitlam is also on our minds, along with a couple of others.

catch22campaign.ca is a recommended site for a different kind of analysis and call to action. We like those folks very much, and suggest you check them out forthwith. They go much deeper.

Vote vote vote. Well, actually only once, and in your own riding. And that doesn't stop you from donating donating donating, preferably where it counts. We're trying to figure that one out.

Help defeat Harper, Vote!

The Conservatives won because the public was apathetic and resulted in low voter turn out. It is the polls that are the real turn-off with stories of a Harper win.
Harper is quite the Prime Minister. He can't stay out of the dark-light as Carson, Harper's former aide confirms Harper's office knew of his "5" different fraud charges before being taken on as Harper's top aide.
As Carson is privileged to sit in the inner circle of the prime ministers office.
Harper passes a bill where fraudsters get no time served to protect the public while murders can get to strike up a deal. And how is this protecting Canadians from fraudsters by giving one access to all Canadians private information? We know Carson's special skills, a fraudster no doubt but what use was Harper going to make of these very special skills? Harper said "He knows nothing". This is despite the aide being privileged to very confidential information. This is the same government that you have to pry any information out because it could hurt the country.(because it could hurt Harper)

BINGO

Here's the difference my fine young friends.
The difference between you socialists and the rest of us is that we don't want other people to be forced to make our political contributions for us.
We make them ourself and often contribute the max.
You people, on the other hand, want to lie there and wait for someone to do it for you.

Nice to hear of those big

Nice to hear of those big donations by the faithful, so Harpo can afford to buy lots of signs to put around the borders with :

"COUNTRY FOR SALE ! "
"COME AND GET IT AT COMPETITIVE PRICES !"
"NO OFFERS REFUSED !"
"COMMUNIST CADRES MOST WELCOME!"

Ed Deak.

John Corman

'you socialist' and 'the rest of us'
????
So anybody who doesn't want to sell the country is a 'socialist' and the 'rest of us' is a conservative?

Wow!!!...what a twisted mind.

No one was talking about forcing people into political contribution. You should learn to read between the lines.

And don't you think that it is strange that a political party with just a minority can rake up so much money? Smell like cheating to me.

I will be happy to see your sorry a$$es to be kicked out of Parliament.

Rednecks

One more thing, John Corman, I forgot to mention ...

Your 'rest of us' party starts to sound like a bunch of rednecks.

Let me translated that for you:
bigoted, loutish, and opposed to modern ways.

Who are the Con voters?

Ed and a couple of others asked who the Conservative voters are, and many imply they are allied with "rich folks". I'm not so sure.

As I review my taxes, I see that the wife and I have each crossed into that uncharted territory (at least by StatsCan's 2008 list) which shows we're now in the richest 20%! Whee! We're rich!

http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/FAMIL105A-eng.htm

Well, perhaps not. And neither of us have any intention of voting conservative. She, the church-going small-c conservative has always hated his attack ads running "for years now", as she says, and she may not know jets from jails, but she knows a mean and smarmy face when she sees one. Me.... well enough about me, except I'm searching for an ABC place to park my vote.

(Do I need to spell it out? Anybody But Conservative)

And we're not alone. Our peer group is much in the same boat, and we can count the number of declared Conservative supporters on the fingers of just one of our hands. Ah well, I guess we church-going bolshies have a pretty small circle, eh? Must be why we don't get invited to any of those big wingdings where they auction off Rolls Royces or trips to Bora Bora for children's charities.

Ed, I'm pretty sure if you look at your average Conservative supporter, "he" (and I'm sure the majority are) is a hard-of-thinking stereotypical Horatio-Alger-wannabe who thinks "he" got where "he" is by hoisting the straps of "his" own boots, no thanks to anyone who looked sideways at "him", whether the kindergarten teacher, the bully down the street, his first boss, his driving examiner, his first brush with the law, or the faceless bureaucrat behind every desk when "he" goes to purchase a service "he" needs to use. Might makes right in his world, and when it don't, Foghorn Leghorn is all too ready to trumpet "Injustice!" from the rooftops.

Which is what makes it so nice when you meet so many people who don't fit the stereotype, and actually care for their neighbours in a more substantial way than with their voices on an open-mouth radio show.

John Corman

Looking again at my taxes, I see the wife and I jointly gave $18,000 of income we didn't currently have a use for, to registered charities at home and overseas so that people will be fed or trained to grow their own food, clean water provided, women sponsored to operate their own businesses, children educated, and the homeless here fed and sheltered. Oh, yeah, the CCPA got a bit too, despite the wife's thin lips.

Somehow, politicians didn't make it onto our list of priorities. Not needy enough. Besides, I figure Harper stole enough from the poor by cancelling overseas funding for a variety of organizations that are doing good work with local "boots on the ground" that the politicians can damn-well share the smaller pot that comes with their self-interested sense of privilege.

How a majority not voting Harper ='s a Harper phony majority l

Both the author and poster note "Two out of three Canadians do not want to see another Stephen Harper-led government", however the risk is real that Harper could be rewarded with a phony majority of the seats with even under 40% popular support.

Here's how, and how to stop it.

Our single-mark ballot system -- often called a first-past-the-post process -- is extremely vulnerable to vote-splitting. Vote-splits divide the voice of a majority and are easily orchestrated to produce victorious candidates. Consider a clear majority of five out of nine voters dividing their ballots in a three-candidate election between the two similar candidates. Candidate A gets 2 votes and B gets 3, while C, not approved by the majority, receives 4 votes and is declared elected.

Electorates have the right and the power to be pro-active in the democratic process, seizing the initiative from the political class and reducing the risk of vote-splitting inherent in FPTP/single mark voting systems, currently run and administrated to the direct advantage of the ruling class. Ideally, we should have no minority supported elected representatives in our respective governments. Specific to Canada's 2008 election resulted in 64% of the electoral districts (198 out of 308) returning an MP with minority support, where the majority went home without their candidate elected. Seven MPs were elected with less than one in five citizens voting for them!

A pre-emptive preferential vote123 ballot, conducted by the electorate itself prior to election day, would show who are the candidates A, B, C... and then permit effective tactical voting in every district on voting day, eliminating the risk of minority supported candidates being returned.

I started such a project during the 2008 election. An outline of the methodology using a paper secret ballot is available at: http://www.eduardhiebert.com/ereform/v123p.htm

For the 2011 election I am in process of developing an online version to do the voting online securely. In the days ahead that will be at www.vote123.ca

Karen D.

"It helps when many Conservative voters are already used to donating a portion of their income to their church and through coersion and fearmongering they are encouraged to be generous."

It seems that this was also true of Catholics voting Liberal for decades, at least up until the last election. There are questions about whether this support is firm, or whether Catholics will return to the Liberal fold in this election.

http://www.catholicregister.org/canada/catholic-vote-turns-tide-conservative-way

I don't see Evangelical support for Harper as iron-clad, although it is substantial, and church-going support for Harper as a blanket rule is probably against him by the same margin as the last election. Don't forget the large number of mainline and evangelical churches with social gospel roots that Harper is doing his damnedest to marginalize.

Zalm.... My question really

Zalm.... My question really was, why would unionists in union towns vote Reform, since they've raised their pathetic heads ?

I'm a private enterpriser and never been in a union, so I've been wondering about this for many years. Neither have I ever voted Socred, or anything close to "conservative" in reality, fascist.

And I should know what fascism and its mentality are about, because I grew up and was educated as a fascist in a fascist
environment, but never could imagine ever to see it in Canada, growing by the day since Mulroney.

Ed Deak.

strategic voting leads to strategic donations

Wow, most impressive effort.
I hope your site helps.
That said, it is sad that 'democracy' has come to this, strategic voting was bad enough.
IMO, 'democracy' should "revise the ballot" for the positive change needed:
http://www.standupfor2013.com/RevisetheBallot.html

Ed

"Zalm.... My question really was, why would unionists in union towns vote Reform, since they've raised their pathetic heads ?"

Ummmm... because they're hard of thinking? Was this a trick question? You of all people would know the Goebbels tactic works anywhere greed raises its ugly head....

PEOPLE JUST GET OUT AND VOTE....

PEOPLE JUST GET OUT AND VOTE. CAST YOUR VOTE AND MAKE A DIFFERENCE.

FORGET THE POLLS, BODY LANGUAGE AND FACE READING.

TRUST YOUR INSTINCTS. IF THE POLITICIAN IS NOT THINKING ABOUT THE CANADIAN ECONOMY THEN DO NOT VOTE FOR HIM OR HER.

WE NEED JOBS, NOT A WAR MACHINES. LOOK WHAT HAPPENED TO OUR SOUTHERLY NEIGHBOUR 70 BILLION IN DEBT AND A POOR COUNTRY FOR IT.

LETS TAKE CARE OF CANADA AND GO OUT AND MAKE NEW FRIENDS WITH THE OVER 150 COUNTRIES WORLD WIDE.

ITS JUST THAT SIMPLE THINK LOCALLY AND EXPAND YOUR MARKETS TO THE WORLD.

CANADA IS ONE OF THE RICHES COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD BUT WE ARE MISMANAGED BY OUR CONTEMPORARY PARTY SYSTEMS.

WE NEED TO RETHINK HOW WE VOTE AND WHO WE VOTE FOR.

Topdown promoted strategic voting often leads to error & mistake

Why was my post from last nite removed?

Gardensnake is correct in pointing out strategic voting (when top-down) can and does lead to error.

Genuined democratic grassroots up strategic voting lets the people deside through a people conducted runoff vote prior to May 2 as to who the best alternative really is.

Here is the vote-split hole defined and how in this election we can mitigate the problem.

Our single-mark ballot system -- often called a first-past-the-post process -- is extremely vulnerable to vote-splitting. Vote-splits divide the voice of a majority and are easily orchestrated to produce victorious candidates. Consider a clear majority of five out of nine voters dividing their ballots in a three-candidate election between the two similar candidates. Candidate A gets 2 votes and B gets 3, while C, not approved by the majority, receives 4 votes and is declared elected.

Electorates have the right and the power to be pro-active in the democratic process, seizing the initiative from the political class and reducing the risk of vote-splitting inherent in FPTP/single mark voting systems, currently run and administrated to the direct advantage of the ruling class. Ideally, we should have no minority supported elected representatives in our respective governments. Specific to Canada's 2008 election resulted in 64% of the electoral districts (198 out of 308) returning an MP with minority support, where the majority went home without their candidate elected. Seven MPs were elected with less than one in five citizens voting for them!

A pre-emptive preferential vote123 ballot, conducted by the electorate itself prior to election day, would show who are the candidates A, B, C... and then permit effective tactical voting in every district on voting day, eliminating the risk of minority supported candidates being returned.

I started such a project during the 2008 election. An outline of the methodology using a paper secret ballot is available at: http://www.eduardhiebert.com/ereform/v123p.htm

For the 2011 election I am in process of developing an online version to do the voting online securely. In the days ahead that will be at www.vote123.ca and I would invite your collaborative, co-participative pro-democracy involvement.

Oops!

After turning the "all" button on, do not know why the search button could not find my first post but now its there. Not at all sure how this came about, but my apology for my error.

Regarding all strategic voting comments, I underline frank2's comments as being right on, even more so his conclusion "Finally, another flea in my ear. Why pay so much attention to tiny-sample polls of the whole province. What counts is individual constituencies."

Thanks Frank!

Eduard

Vote smart by voting for democracy

The only campaign to financially support for real change in Parliament is supporting Elizabeth May in Saanich-Gulf Islands. A Liberal minority could be feasible if the NDP fully focussed on getting Harper out and attacking the Tories. We should not give the Bloc more than the regional representation that they advocate for and will never form government or be in a functional governing position. Much like the UK and Australia, who both formed coalitions after their previous fed elections did not determine a PM, to form gov't (this is Harper's worst nightmare for a reason). A few NDP and Green in cabinet would be welcomed over the exclusion of the majority under status quo Harper Gov't by most Libs. Let's sweep out the rhetoric and focus on the issues by taking aim at Harper and his entourage to bring our inclusive and responsible democracy back once and for all. Will your representing MP truly represent you in the HofC? Something to ask before you mark the x this time.

Coalition fear

Harper and his cronies keep raising the spectre of "the coalition" because they are truly afraid of it. After all, they should know from the traitorous takeover by their Reform/Alliance of the former PC party. Most of those "red Tories" are now gone, except the architect of that takeover, now defense minister and proponent for those expensive and soon to be obsolete, F 35s.

By the way, what is the difference between a coalition and an alliance? Too bad Iggy and Jack can't get together on this one.

Forget the polls except where strategic voting really could make a difference. ABC.

Vote, yes. But get out and volunteer and get your friends to do likewise. Your time and effort will be more effective than money.

To my surprise I've actually convinced some former Harper Conservative supporters to look deeper and possibly change their vote. A few of these are now concerned about what a Harper majority would look like. Gotta shift them one or two at a time.

But I still feel pessimistic on this one and I'd be happy with another minority.

If all those people who could but didn't vote, had picked one party, say the Greens, we'd have our first elected female Prime Minister.

Zalm - Say goodbye to that $18k

You're obviously a very generous man as well as a successful one. You say that you and your wife gave $18,000 to charities last year. I did some number crunching based on one income earner having $18k extra.
So, consider this. To have that amount of money, as you put it , "not having a use for" would imply earnings of about $130,000.
The reason that you would have this $18,000 is because of our current reasonable income tax rates. If this was 1996 the NDP and the feds would have taken all of that $18k. Mind you, as you say, you didn't have any use for it anyway so, go ahead, vote NDP.

John Corman

You really are 'unbelievable'.

You haven't got a clue why zalm and his wife had 18G to give to charity and your 'calculation' is total bullshit - what he donates to charity doesn't 'imply' anything about his earnings...which was obvious from zalm's words.

You also, clearly, don't know a thing about the tax system either.

Keep on keeping on though - you do provide a laugh now and then.

Informative and sound posts as usual, Zalm

For several generations the Catholic Church, in Quebec, directed their congregations how to vote. That was then the Liberal strategy; however, for the past 30 years the PQ and then the Bloc convinced their citizens to vote for Quebec's best financial interest. We all know how that has turned out.

Today in our neck of the woods, many corporations guide their employees how to vote. In several quasi-union organizations, workers are overtly or covertly advised to vote for the so-called pro-business party, otherwise the economy will dry up and their jobs will go elsewhere.

As far as tax brackets are concerned, Mulroney initiated the reduction from 9 levels down to 5. Since you are now in the top bracket, along the other 20% of the populace, your tax rate won't be going any higher.

Your humanitarian approach to life shows that you don't object to paying more taxes for the betterment of society. Unfortunately, less can be said about the others in the highest tax bracket. They seem to be locked-up in the mantra that "Greed is Good". As the wealthy move up the food chain, many have the opportunity to write-off both legal and illegal expenses. With more deregulation, this pattern will exacerbate.

Sorry John Corman

You've already proved you don't know squat about math, so I can't accept a single one of your preposterous conclusions. When Gordo gave us that first tax cut in 2001, my take-home pay went down by $0.10 that period! And the ones following, until he instituted the second part of that tax cut when my take-home pay went up by $18 every two weeks. It totalled about $100 for that year, and a couple hundred more for each year after that.

For which I got lousier service in the medical system, along with long lists of excluded procedures, such as opthalmology, that I now have to pay full freight for. Add that to the list of other things I'm paying more for, and my "tax cut" looks more like the kind of "democracy" George Bush gave Iraq.

You could benefit from a little more study of Kantian philosphy - your mind is going to waste while your mouth roars arguments that can't be supported by the facts.

Swing ridings

I live in one - Simcoe-Grey, Ontario.

A 3-way race: Guergis/outgoing cabinet minister now running as an 'Independent Conservative' - then Kellie Leitch, fly-in candidate to the riding, professional, the official Conservative nominee - then Alex Smardenka, local Boston Pizza business owner and first-time running for anything, Liberals. There are a couple of others coming up behind but essentially a 3-way race.

Guergis, local loyalties, family well-known in county but may be damaged goods.

Leitch, true blue tried and true and my grandfather voted that way so god....m it, I'm voting that way.

Smardenka, immigrant family, worked his buns off in the restaurant business, employs 300 in the local area.

If any of this resonates, make your donation.