Paul Nettleton?

.

Interesting stuff, Bill. Now I wish you'd add a bit about what brought the most honourable of BC Liberals back into the fold, now that Gordo is almost gone, and in support of Christy Clark.

I've said that it doesn't matter a damn WHO (of the Gordo Gang) takes over the BC premier's chair. I've called our newby "WhoeverItIsDoesn'tMatter"

But suppose, by some miracle, it had been Paul Nettleton, former BC Liberal MLA for Prince George Omeneca?

I have enormous respect for Paul Nettleton and will never forget his courage in standing -- alone -- to defend BC Hydro and then BC Rail. Such public service got him booted out of the Gordo Gang, but Nettleton continued on as an Independent MLA. Then was defeated ...

In my view, it must have been an immense new change within BC Liberalism which brought such a person back into the toxic world of partisan BC politics. But what?

Nettleton came out early and specifically in support of Christy Clark. I can't figure that out.

Bill, can you tell us more about it?

Not a Real Democracy?!??!

"We no longer have a real functioning democracy and the prospects of re-invigorating it are slim at best." GWest

What's happening here?! Even Old GWest is stepping outside the hereto box of his "liberal" societal and world view? Sehr interessant.

A pretty radical statement from G. Don't go too far G. :-)

Though I would say that we have NEVER really lived in a fully functioning democracy. It has only ever been an illusion particular to a time and level of understanding, AND level of socio-economic development. This bourgeois limited parliamentary democracy was only ever, and still is really, but a modest improvement on the old feudal Divine Right of Kings political model. A temporary historical kind of way station in the more all encompassing development of democracy, awaiting the further development in the level of understanding of the masses, and the material/technological means to facilitate their full inclusion in it... and to make the final breakthrough, to extend it into the economic realm... the last great democratic frontier. (For it is in the economy that the really fundamental and important means of development and power reside... even more than in the secondary institutions of politics... Which is not to exclude the importance of politics either.) To which historical and development point we MAY be finally arriving, if not yet in the third world, then in the more relatively "advanced" countries at least... Which oddly, is more or less how Marx thought it would go, and was thought wrong, even by much of the Left.

In any case, we may be witnessing progress for old G too. 8-D lol Welcome to the "serious Left" brother. 8-D (Though expect Frank to be ragging on your ass.)

Love, Peace and Revolution
Jerry
http://coyotetimesca.blogspot.com/

more of the same thing

Quote from Garth West

“We no longer have a real functioning democracy and the prospects of re-invigorating it are slim at best.”

There is not, nor has there ever been, a real functioning democracy in Canada. Never will be with this FPTP nonsense still around. This is the least democratic of all voting systems in the entire world.

True democracy is the elevation of minority rights to equal status. Now if one thinks beyond that statement we all know that true democracy would paralyze the entire country until we decided upon equal rights for every single minority group including the left- handed red- heads of the world.

This event last weekend simply demonstrates that our society here in BC is full of lemonheads that know shit about where we are headed.

"Politics is the business of getting power and privilege without possessing merit.

http://freedomkeys.com/collectivism.htm

coyote

"(Though expect Frank to be ragging on your ass.)"

Feel like stirring the pot this morning eh? You're forgetting there's been no more vocal supporter of electoral and parliamentary reform on this forum over the last 7 years than me.

The problem is that the people keep saying no to it. C'est la vie.

By the way, I find it interesting that one of the biggest proponents of the current system is the author of this article. Just something to keep in mind when you read it.

Striking Parallels

After three straight election wins, a premier steps down amidst high unpopularity levels in a very unpopular government.

One was Bill Bennett. The other was Gordon Campbell.

A leadership race begins and one candidate stands out from the crowd in terms of:

a) A former cabinet minister;
b) Considered an outsider;
c) Had previoulsy had a failed run at the Vancouver maoyoral chair;
d) Had minimal caucus support;
e) Considered to have charisma and good communication skills;
f) Highest ratings in opinion polls;

One was Bill Vander Zalm. The other was Christy Clark.

After their victories the media begin to fawn all over the new premier-designates and creates momentum in their favour.

That's where the similarities end. The Zalm was a right-wing social conservative that would make Stephen Harper blush, which would later result in his demise.

Clark, OTOH, is a more centrist Liberal the most centrist premier of the incumbent governing centre-right party ever elected in BC compared to WAC Bennett, Bill Bennett, and Gordon Campbell.

I will defer to Vaughn Palmer who stated on Global TV on Saturday night:

"I knew Bill Vander Zalm and Christy Clark is no Bill Vander Zalm".

The federal NDP in BC attracts ~25% of the vote while the provincial NDP attracts ~42% of the vote. Why? The additional 17% comprises mainly federal Liberal voters.

The Campbell government was seen as too right-wing for those 17% federal Liberals and that's also the reason behind the large female gender gap in favour of the provincial NDP.

That dynamic will now likely change with that 17% beginning to bleed over to the BC Libs. That dynamic will be further enhanced with the NDP electing a more left-wing leader in Dix. Of course some right-wing Libs will also bleed over to the BC Cons.

One only needs to look back to the typical provincial election results of the 1960's to see the dynamic in voting patterns of a more centrist centre-right party and a more left-wing NDP:

Socred: 45%
Liberal: 20%
NDP: 33%

Clark is a centrist...

...and Bill Vander Zalm is not? You must be joking. Bill Vander Zalm was all over the spectrum as his position on the HST would show. Christy is Bill Vander Zalm without the charisma that he once had. Christy is just opinionated and mouthy without substance as we will soon see.

You're wrong Luke

The federal NDP in BC attracts ~25% of the "vote"

The federal NDP attracts more voters in BC than does the federal Liberals. And as you say, most federal Liberals that there are support the NDP provincially.

Ergo, the BC Liberals are a Conservative party, albeit misnamed.

Therefore the nonsense that is constantly spouted, the "centre-right" coalition, is a misnomer, the only coalition is of the centre and left.

Lastly, polls that were done with Christy as hypothetical leader of the BC Liberals did not show a huge increase in Liberal support. What they showed was a level of support only marginally better than the other Liberal candidates and that was against a leaderless NDP which no doubt will enjoy a little bounce of its own when Mike wins.

Still, I have to admire your optimism in spite of the facts.

Frank

Several fallacies in your argument.

The latest weighted BC federal vote intentions from 308.com, based upon a plethora of recent opinion polls, is as follows:

Con - 38%
Lib - 26%
NDP - 21%
Green - 12%

Again, I will definitely wager that the provincial 42% BC NDP vote will now drift downward toward the 33% level.

Previous hypothetical polls don't have much credence - just like in 1986. It was AFTER the Zalm won and was sworn in as premier where the big positive MO started to kick in - in his favour.

FWIW, the Zalm and the Socreds reached 58% two months after his swearing in.

Clark just won. Another two weeks until she's sworn in. The media fawning has just begun. ;)

BTW, the NDP membership went from ~13,000 to 25,000. The existing NDP base was already quite left-wing (as opposed to the avg. NDP voter). Dix is a natural fit for that constituency.

Furthermore, the majority of the new NDP memberships were from the Indo-Canadian and Filipino communities - big Dix backers. Just simple math and deduction with OMOV.

Finally, Baldrey has previously confirmed that senior NDP insiders have basically conceded that Dix has won the thing due to the existing base and Dix's massive sign-ups.

There you have it from the horse's mouth.

Frank, Polls done with Christy

as hypothetical leader as "so last week". You watch, the media will drive Christy to stratospheric approval levels in the next few months. Sure, whover wins the NDP leadership might experience a slight bump, but the public of this province are going to drool all over Christy for at least the next couple of years. We get the government we deserve. The BC public were quite happy for the government to give away the province, until the HST hit and they will buy in to whatever Christy offers, lock, stock and barrel.

Luke

You're all over the map, you can't claim one recent federal poll with a miniscule BC sample size proves this or that while at the same time building your case on historical precedent.

Its one or the other. If you want to go with a recent poll as the backbone of your argument fine, but then you can throw out all the history about Vander Zalm and federal Liberals voting NDP and so on.

Over the last two decades the NDP have drawn greater support federally in BC than the Liberals. Over that same time frame the provincial NDP have won a couple of elections and established themselves as the only opposition to the government in the province. And they did that by drawing federal Liberal support.

Maybe what you say is true and Christy Clark will now make everyone in BC a Liberal. No more will the Cons take almost half the federal vote, no more will the NDP get more than 5 seats provincially. Everyone will become a Liberal. That possibility has no facts behind it, no history but I will concede its possible the Right and the Left are all going to become centrists.

I just don't think it will happen.

JPR

One problem with that, Christy was already in government and the public didn't drool over her.

She ran for mayor and lost because of the lack of drooling.

In government and on the radio she made it pretty clear, she's not a consensus builder.

I think her story will play out similar to Vander Zalm's.

Huh!

I have a 'liberal' world view?

Don't think so coyote. I'm every bit as radical as you are my friend...I just happen to believe that simply tearing things down because they're NOT perfect might yield a result which is less satisfactory in the end than the fucked-up version we're living with now.

As for that other quibble - the one from p/rex - who claims we've never had a 'real' functioning democracy in this country - well, I'd simply respond that Canadian democracy was far more 'real' a generation and a half ago than it is now.

And, simply because someone doesn't believe in representative government doesn't in any way make the case that representative government can't be a decent system of democratic governance...

My contention is that there is a fundamental difference between the way government ran and democracy functioned in this country thirty years ago than the way it is 'working' today.

Furthermore, although I'm with Frank when it comes to decrying first past the post, I'm not naive enough to pretend that simply switching to some form of proportional representation is going to turn Canada into Sweden or Denmark. In BC, in fact, it might even turn it into Israel.

The problem today isn't so much the democratic deficit as it is the simple fact that whatever elected government this country (and province) has, the real decisive power relationships are 'independent' of any democratic control or direction.

Simple putting a different person (viz: Christy Clark for Gordon Campbell) into the catbird seat won't make a pennyworth of difference until the real source of power - corporate might - is brought to heel.

Run Bill Run

against Clark.

Quote: That's where the

Clark, OTOH, is a more centrist Liberal the most centrist premier of the incumbent governing centre-right party ever elected in BC compared to WAC Bennett, Bill Bennett, and Gordon Campbell.

How exactly do you mesh this arguement with the fact that Gwyn Morgan, possibly the most right-wing "media celebrity" in BC is running Christy's transition?

Sorry CH - your examples just don't work.

Good analysis, Bill!

I think you are right on, and as someone who thinks it's time for the NDP to take over for a while, Clark worries me. I agree with all you points with a couple of provisos:

2. Scandals mean jack squat. Scandals do matter if the person can be tied directly to the scandal... if there is a smoking gun. I don't think there is in this case, and people are willing to give Clark the benefit of the doubt. But if you can tie her directly to the scandal...

3. Big business doesn't matter. Only in that Big business doesn't really care who is premier as long as that person has "business friendly" policies. Nothing in Clark's record indicates that she'll betray business -- that is raise the corporate tax rates, oppose the HST (she probably has a better chance of convincing people to keep the HST than Falcon would). She will repeal the training wage and raise the minimum, but that affects smaller businesses in the main... anyway the minimum wage is so low relatively few adults are on it -- it mostly screws the kids working while in school.

Frank

I will re-iterate that the following BC federal result from 308.com is based upon an amalgam of numerous opinion polls (BC federal results) with a sample size of several thousand:

Con - 38%
Lib - 26%
NDP - 21%
Green - 12%

Just a few hours ago, Ipsos released their national poll with these BC federal results and a smaller sample size:

CPC - 48%
Lib - 21%
NDP - 22%
Green - 8%

Not really.

1993: Lib - 28.1% NDP - 15.5%
1997: Lib - 28.8% NDP - 18.2%
2000: Lib - 27.7% NDP - 11.3%
2004: Lib - 28.6% NDP - 26.6%
2006: Lib - 27.6% NDP - 28.6%
2008: Lib - 19.3% NDP - 25%

Of course, the fed Lib anomaly in 2008 was the "no one could understand" Dion + the "Green Shift" when the carbon tax was already hated here in BC.

I'm also talking about the history of the 7 provincial elections during the '50's and '60's when the NDP only achieved between 28% and 33% when the NDP was more left-wing.

With the left-wing, "un"populist, uncharismatic, Glen Clark/false memo tainted Dix at the NDP helm and a more centrist Clark at the Lib helm, we could potentially see some dynamic shifts politically.

Right-wing Campbell is now gone and that opens up a large opportunity for Clark in terms of the gender gap. Female voters never liked Campbell.

While the last ARS poll shows the Libs now ahead 41% - 38% for the NDP, a huge gender gap still remains. With female voters, the NDP still leads 43% to 34% for the Libs.

I suggest that female gender gap will reverse over the next few months in favour of Clark, the centrist "hockey mom".

What I further see happening is a post Labour-day election and, with a more centrist Clark at the Lib helm and a more left-wing Dix at the NDP helm, the following potential result:

Lib: 45% (-1%)
NDP: 33% (-9%)
Con: 10% (+8%)
Green: 10% (+2%)
Other: 2%

With such a 12% spread, the Libs would take 60 - 65 seats v. 20 - 25 for the NDP.

Remember that many centre-left federal Libs belonging to/part of Vision Vancouver worked on the Clark campaign, such as Brad Zubyk (who has always worked NDP provincially), Greg Wilson, and Don Millar. The same federal Liberals that voted NDP provincially.

Luke

I have 308 bookmarked, I check it regularly.

"I'm also talking about the history of the 7 provincial elections during the '50's and '60's when the NDP only achieved between 28% and 33% when the NDP was more left-wing."

That dog won't hunt. The whole country was in many ways more left-wing back then (not socially). Wacky Bennett would look like a left-winger to right-wingers nowadays. The electoral history of the 50's bears no relation to now. Most of the people that voted back then are dead. The issues are different. Your view would suggest that there is no change in society.

Adrien Dix is tainted but Christy Clark isn't? Surely to god you're joking. Ever hear of BC Rail? Christy wears a bigger stone around her neck than Dix ever did. Not to mention the fact Dix is a heavyweight and Clark is a lightweight in the grasp of the issues department.

I can just as easily say that with the intelligent, informed Adrien Dix at the helm of the NDP and the bubble-headed perennial quitter running the Liberals the next election could turn out pretty nicely for the NDP.

I think 43% is Clark's high point. If she can't do better than 43% after winning the Liberal leadership and in the general euphoria of Campbell being gone and up against a leaderless NDP that just dumped their leader, she's done like dinner.

I can see on the NDP-Liberal popular vote thing I was wrong, you got me there.