News

BC Key to Harper's Dream of Majority

Five tight battleground ridings are poised to tip towards Tories.

By Monte Paulsen, 16 Sep 2009, TheTyee.ca

Stephen Harper and Gordon Campbell

For Harper, friendly territory

Related

British Columbia is poised to push Prime Minister Stephen Harper to the cusp of a majority in the next federal election, provided that certain 2008 voting patterns continue.

Conservatives won 22 of B.C.'s 36 seats in the House of Commons in October of 2008. That was a gain of five seats over the 2006 election, and helped lift Harper to within 12 seats of a majority.

With Harper running well ahead in national polls and election rumours falling like maple leaves over Ottawa, Conservative political strategists are focusing their sights not on the seats Harper won in 2008, but on the five B.C. ridings in which his team racked up significant second-place finishes.

Conservative candidates came within 22 votes of winning South Vancouver last year, and within 68 votes of carrying a suburban Victoria electoral district. Altogether, a shift of as few as five percentage points in the Conservatives' favour would have awarded Harper another five B.C. ridings in 2008.

These five ridings are destined to be among the hottest battlegrounds in the next federal election, whenever it comes. And if Harper's Conservatives can pick up five seats in B.C., pick off another seven in Ontario, and somehow hold on to most of his 10 in Quebec -- then the election after next could be a long time coming.

Five ridings within five points

Conservative Party candidates came within about five percentage points of winning five B.C. electoral districts in 2008. Winning the following ridings will be near the top of the Tory to-do list in the next election:

In Vancouver South, Conservative Wai Young came within 22 votes of toppling Liberal MP (and former premier) Ujjal Dosanjh. Watch for the Tories to build on their recent success among immigrants in this Fraser River riding, where Chinese-Canadians comprise 45 per cent of the population, and Indo-Canadians another 13 per cent.

In Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Troy DeSouza came within 68 votes of beating Liberal MP Keith Martin. There were 67 disputed ballots. (DeSouza, a lawyer, called off a recount after it became apparent that even if he won the dispute, he'd lose the race.) Like Vancouver South, this suburban Victoria riding will likely emerge as a battlefield in the proxy war between Ignatieff and Harper.

In Burnaby-Douglas, Conservative Ronald Leung finished only 798 votes behind New Democratic Party MP Bill Siksay. That's a difference of less than two per cent.

In New Westminster-Coquitlam, Yonah Martin lost to NDP incumbent Dawn Black by 1,488 votes, or about three per cent. Martin was appointed to the Senate in January. Black subsequently moved to provincial politics, which could level the playing field for the next campaign.

And in Newton-North Delta Conservative candidate Sandeep Pandher lost to veteran Liberal MP Sukh Dhaliwal by 2,493 votes -- a margin of five per cent. NDP candidate Teresa Townsley finished less than four points behind Pandher, increasing the likelihood of yet another hard-fought three-way contest in this suburban swing riding.

Burnaby has historically been an NDP stronghold regarded as out-of-reach for the Conservatives because New Dems are far less likely than Grits to occasionally vote Tory. But Metro Vancouver's real estate boom has altered the demographics of these fast-growing suburban ridings.

As a Conservative Party insider put it during an interview with The Hill Times: "I'd be looking at anything that's even remotely close, even if it's not a historic Conservative seat."

No such easy pickings for the Grits

Five Tight Ridings

What Tories lost by last time:

Vancouver South: 22 votes

Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca: 68 votes

Burnaby-Douglas: 798 votes

New West-Coquitlam: 3 per cent

Newton-North Delta: 5 per cent

Federal New Democrats hold nine seats in British Columbia. In addition to defending those ridings, the NDP have two second-place finishes of their own to build upon:

In Surrey North, NDP candidate Rachid Arab finished only three per cent behind Conservative MP Dona Cadman, the widow of former Independent MP Chuck Cadman.

And in Vancouver Island North, NDP candidate Catherine Bell finished just 4 per cent behind Conservative MP John Duncan.

The Liberals hold only five B.C. seats in the House of Commons. And there was not one riding in the province where in 2008 the Liberal Party of Canada finished within striking distance of the victor.

Saanich-Gulf Islands was the Liberals' best second place finish. Liberal activist Briony Penn finished only four points behind Minister Gary Lunn. But that statistic gap belies the unique nature of that coastal riding, which has repeatedly pitted a Liberal, a New Democrat and an unusually strong Green candidate against Lunn; and repeatedly reelected a right-wing MP formerly known as "30 per cent Gary."

In North Vancouver, Liberal MP Don Bell lost to Conservative challenger Andrew Saxton by only five per cent. Bell, a former North Vancouver mayor, had held the seat for four years. But prior to Bell's tenure, the riding had spent 30 years in Reform, Alliance and Conservative hands.

And in Vancouver Kingsway, Liberal challenger Wendy Yuan finished six per cent behind New Democrat Don Davies, and about two points ahead of Conservative challenger Salomon Rayek. But the curse of David Emerson continues to inspire visceral anger all along Kingsway. (Emerson, who never lived in the area, was parachuted into the once-safe seat by Prime Minister Paul Martin in 2004, but defected to the Conservative Party immediately after Harper was elected in 2006.)

To put Liberal Party prospects in perspective, consider this: A shift of as few as 4,875 key votes would have awarded Harper five more seats in 2008. It would have required almost twice as many votes for the Liberals to gain even these three seats.

Harper holds 18 safe seats

While Metro Vancouver and the Victoria suburbs play host to the majority of B.C. battlegrounds, much of rest of the province remains firmly in Tory control.

Fully 18 of the 22 seats currently held by Conservative candidates are virtually unassailable. In 2008, the Tories carried more than half the popular vote in 13 ridings, and won by safe margins of more than 10 per cent in another five.

Federal New Democrats hold only five such "safe seats" in B.C., with only one riding (Vancouver East) won by more than half the vote.

And the federal Liberal Party failed to win even one B.C. riding by a safe margin of 10 per cent in 2008. Veteran MP Hedy Fry came the closest, winning a four-way race in Vancouver Center by a 9 per cent margin.

"The Conservatives have a number of ridings where they rack up so much support that it's ridiculous," observed Dennis Pilon, a political scientist at the University of Victoria.

Pilon noted that the Conservative's cushion of safe seats could allow the party to shift more resources to a short list of swing ridings, while the competition would be forced to spread equally capped resources across a much greater area.

Voter fatigue favours Harper

No one supposes that a 2009 or 2010 federal election would mimic the 2008 contest. But with three of four party leaders unchanged -- and Ignatieff sagging in the polls -- it's not hard to see why Stephen Harper would be eager for the next election. His poll number are good, his war chest is full, and his trend line is pointed up: In British Columbia, the Conservatives went from 17 seats in 2006 to 22 in 2008. Nationally, he went from 124 to 143.

"The question 'Can Harper do it in B.C.?' assumes the rest of the country will stand still," Pilon said. "And that is the interesting question."

Strategist Andrew Steele recently made the case for a Harper majority. Writing in his Globe and Mail blog, Steele counted up to 13 vulnerable NDP and Liberal ridings in Ontario. Assuming that Harper could hold his support in Atlantic Canada and the Prairies, Steele argued for Harper's chances of picking up 12 seats between B.C. and Ontario.

"It is not a sure thing that Harper would be wiped out in Quebec for running an anti-separatist campaign," Steele concluded. "If Harper comes out of English Canada clearly positioned to form another government, he may be able to appeal to enough Quebecers wishing to back the winner to hold some of his Quebec seats and form a majority."

And as election rumours fly out of Ottawa this week, it's worth bearing in mind that the palpable public distaste for another Federal election this fall -- the fourth in five years -- works to Stephen Harper's advantage, while at the same time working at the expense of whatever party is perceived as having triggered the next election.

"There's two ways to win an election. One is to re-divide the pie as it stands. Another is to make the pie bigger or smaller," explained Pilon.

"Harper's success is partly due to the fact that his style of politicking has driven a lot of people away from politics. A lot of people don't like the mean, confrontational approach of the Conservative party. But instead of voting against it, they just give up on politics altogether," the University of Victoria professor continued.

'Oh, whatever...'

Indeed, voter turnout in 2008 was the lowest in Canadian history. Only 59 per cent of eligible Canadians cast a ballot. But while the Tories and the Bloc each lost about 170,000 votes between 2006 and 2008, the Liberals lost some 850,000 supporters.

"And of course that's what Harper and his bunch are hoping for," Pilon continued.

"They orchestrate a lot of photo-ops in which Harper looks Prime Ministerial. And they run their off-election smear campaign against the other leaders," Pilon said. "They're hoping that, come election day, people say, 'Oh, whatever, let's just put them in and be done with it.'"  [Tyee]

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  • Matt T.

    2 years ago

    BC Has Big Problems

    The last poll published by the Hook was by Ipsos.

    http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/Federal-Politics/2009/09/14/CanwestIpsos/#article_comments

    And for BC, the results were:

    Con - 39% [5% less than the 2008 election]

    Lieberal - 30% [11% more than 2008 election]

    It appears that the Cons are losing some support to the Lieberals while the Lieberals are taking even more support from the NDP.

    BC is in a BIG mess!

  • zalm

    2 years ago

    Wai Young made it close, eh?

    I guess people don't know about her conservative religious nutbar side. I think it's just about time that story was told.

  • bluerev

    2 years ago

    Sad for democracy

    I wish this article focused on the Harper strategy in getting elected instead of why he could be elected with a majority. The message I hope Canadians hear is that Harper does not want you to go to the poles, because his supports will come out, and others won't. To me this is all the more reason we need to oust the conservatives. If a party (of any stripes, beliefs, ideologies) is hoping for a low voter turn out to get into power, that is a government that should never be in power in a Democracy.

  • kavic

    2 years ago

    Please report on the Canadian system of election, not the US

    "this ... riding will likely emerge as a battlefield in the proxy war between Ignatieff and Harper"

    We cannot keep voting as if we are electing a President, and our news should not encourage it. The Canadian system is meant to elect people, not parties, and to work on a local level. A voter should vote for the person who best represents his/her values, and has the backbone to vote that way.

    The news media has been pushing our election system to mirror the US; an election is always represented as between party leaders, and allowing the PM to represent himself as a President. It ain't so, folks! A party can (and has) replaced the PM by electing a sitting member of the House to the leadership of the party. Let's not let that little fact fade away from our memory so that the Conservatives can claim that it's "unconstitutional", just like they had never heard of a coalition government.

    We don't have a President for a good reason. Stephen Harper might like to think that we need one -- but most Canadians prefer to live in Canada. Let's keep it that way.

  • crankypants

    2 years ago

    HST

    If Harper and his MPs think that they can gain ground in BC, then they are totally mistaken. They are as complicit as the BC Liberals with respect to the proposed HST. No matter how much the sitting Conservative MPs insist that the implementation of the HST rides solely on the BC Liberals the anti HST movement will expose this fallacy. We may be considered laid back here in lotus land, but once we get our knickers in a knot, look out. Just ask the Socreds in 1991 or the NDP in 2001 how quickly the tide can turn out here.

    I say bring it on. The message we send to Ottawa will be a wake up call to our provincial government.

  • Dan the socialist

    2 years ago

    Harper is only running well

    Harper is only running well ahead in one poll. The Canwest/Ipso's poll. Their last two polls have Harper well ahead of the rest as usual with their push polls, unlike all the other polls that have a 2-4% difference.

    The west has more con support to skew the numbers but a lot fewer seats, so is Harper going to be able to make up seats he will lose next time in Quebec and Ontario? I doubt it. There is not enough that will go his way out here plus not enough overall seats anyway to make up the difference. So Harper being up 2-5% means nothing if he can not make gains in Ontario and elsewhere and the seats he will lose in Quebec.

    Harper will get a minority at best, as would Iggy. If he wins.

  • alive

    2 years ago

    Compromise

    Much as I would like to see Harper dumped, I agree with Layton that an election is bad news!

    We would wind up with a very low voter turn-out and the results likely not much different from what we have now.

    It is time that we all realize that minority governments are OK and the politicians simply have to learn to compromise.

  • Dr Alexander

    2 years ago

    Kavic, I do thank you for the reminder

    It also illustrates the ignorance of the Parliamentary system that we have in which a coalition which was proposed by Dion is par for the course of many national parliaments.

    Your pointing out of the difference between our system and "theirs" also completely underpins why I am so p**sed at my local MP. Before the last election she came knocking on my door telling me that she was going to work for me in Ottawa if she got elected.

    That is exactly the way it is supposed to work.

    Well, she got elected. I had some issues in which I told her to tell PM Harper that I wanted action on this and action on that... and all I got from her was more of the PMO's talking points and propaganda.

    She is not working for me, she is working for Harper. It completely amazed me how a woman who was clearly a successful self-starting and intelligent business individual in private life, would totally park her brain and become so completely servile to her political master.

    I quite pity her.

  • frances

    2 years ago

    ethnic voting

    It's unfortunate that in Vancouver South riding, the voters of east asian origin choose to vote along ethnic lines rather than on the merits of the candidate or party platform. This weakens the democratic process and increases cynicism among voters in general. But when someone brings attention to this elephant in the room, they are shouted down as racist.

  • freebear

    2 years ago

    Psssst! I've got the wool pulled over their eyes!

    One gangster said to the other....!

  • MichaelT

    2 years ago

    one man's dream

    is a civilization's nightmare.

  • runner

    2 years ago

    HST

    crankypants raised a good point regarding the HST, that Harper's influence in implementing that here in BC could thwart his attempts to gain stronger representation. Hopefully this will be apparent to the federal Liberals who can play that against the Cons while the negative attention is still on the HST locally.

    What will be interesting will be to see what, if any, relations still exist between the BC Lieberals and the federal Libs through the old Martin supporter gang: Marissen, Basi, Virk et al., and whether there will be any BC-led influence to not bring up the HST in order to keep Gordo looking good (well, in relative terms). If Iggy campaigned against the HST, Gordo wouldn't like that much, but despite the party names, Campbell is more a policy and personality soul mate with Harper anyways.

    Anyways, the point is that the BC Libs had some backroom dealings with the federal party at one point, but should that relationship still exist, the HST brings on a contradiction in positions that could cause a rift. Hopefully Iggy and the fed party will use whatever ammo they have to use against the Cons.

    Anyone have current info on where that's all at?

  • morechatter

    2 years ago

    Didn't BC Learn With Campbell

    Because Harper and Campbell are made of the same stuff lies are made of. Record Deficits, record tax breaks for corporations, record bail outs for corporations, record poverty while record numbers are sleeping on Canada's streets.
    Is the economy recovered like Harper says or are we still in the recession that we are in? And what about all that job creation(part-time low paying jobs) under Harper as unemployment continues to climb and full time positions continue to be lost? With promises of further job loses with government cuts both federally and provincially as will have a ripple affect as jobs will be lost both publicly and privately.
    What can you believe as Harper lies like the sidewalk he has unemployed Canadians sleeping on? Harper says no new taxes. Well what is the HST but worst than the GST.
    I'm pretty confident there is going to be a fall election as can't see Harper coming up with EI reform needed. Also believe Bloc leader and Liberal leader are on common ground when it comes to Canada and bringing down Harper. Other than that your guess is as good as mine. I'm hoping a fall election as its Bully Bully to Harper's lot.

  • morechatter

    2 years ago

    An Election is Bad News for the NDP

    Is more like it, as party sits at 12% in the poles.
    Layton asks for EI reform, despite Harper saying I got no back door deals for you Layton. So I figure Friday will be the tell all as can't see Harper doing anything different but giving the NDP leader the finger when it comes to much needed benfits for unemploymed Canadians? Can you?

  • morechatter

    2 years ago

    Cons and Libs are tied in poles

    And Harper has been campaigning all summer with Iggy lived in America and Iggy is in it for himself crap. Along with other advertisements that tell me Harper is threatened by the leader.
    Despite Harper's attempts at discrediting the Liberal leader the numbers in the poles changed very little as Liberals were out front and are now tied.
    So considering Harper has a jump on things, I would have to say once the Opposition gets its digs in there Harper's numbers will drop. Its a given.

  • Skywalker

    2 years ago

    Want to see Canada if Harper gets a majority?

    Just look at BC under Campbell today. A free trade zone where corporations rule.

  • ME2

    2 years ago

    Word games

    looks like we have a new meaning for telephone poles !! :- )

  • ReeferMadness

    2 years ago

    The comparison with Campbell is astute

    Like Campbell, Harper simply won't talk about most of the things he wants to do. If he gets a majority look for massive government downsizing, including the gutting or outright elimination of the CBC. It's frightening that a party whose leader once called Canada "a second rate socialist country" can be elected.

    Be afraid. Be very afraid.

  • Bob Watts

    2 years ago

    What the votes going on?

    Harper just got his government propped up by the Quebec Separatists this week Sept-15-2009.
    Wasn’t that what Harper was blaming the Liberals about in all these new TV commercials.
    “Congratulations Mr. don’t hug your kids goodbye but give them a big handshake”.
    I think the word “Hypocrite” rings a very loud bell.
    Harper is now in bed with the Separatists, and he’s love’n it!!!
    Its sad I live in a riding held by a conservative, where I must hold my nose and vote NDP, because the federal Liberals in this riding will only get about 10% of the vote here.
    I’m over 50 and I’ve never voted for the leader I wanted but rather I voted to get rid of a Leader, just like I’ll vote NDP to get rid of Harper, went Federally I like the Liberals, and I hate the BC Liberals, where I like what the Greens stand for but must vote NDP to get rid of Campbell.
    Free country my @SS… HST on my T.P…If I vote none of the above I’ll get Harper and Campbell, hey their in bed together too, HST on condoms???

  • freebear

    2 years ago

    "BC Key to Harper's Dream of Majority"

    And last time Quebec was key and they thumbed their nose at Harper.

    Let's hope BC does the same and keeps Harper on the opposition bench or as a minority government.

    Unfortunately the federal Liberals are not much of an alternative!

    Canada appears to be fu..ed!

  • sunshine coast girl

    2 years ago

    And when British Columbians discover that

    the Feds will get 1% of our PST after it becomes the HST, and will retain the right to raise it whenever they see fit, as long as BC is compensated, surely to god they will kick those Tories out on their asses faster than you can spit!! So, wasn't it generous of them to give us that 1.9 billion "transition money?" We're being taken to the cleaners.

  • Skywalker

    2 years ago

    Bob Watts

    I got a real laugh when I heard that Harper was in a "coalition, in bed with, whatever" with the same separatists that the went ballistic over when the Liberals and NDP tried to form a coalition last January. I could believe my ears. All th folks that went crazy over a deal with people who wanted to break up the country, it was treason plain and simple.

    Now Harper's doing it with the "separatists". He can't wrap himself in the flag anymore.

  • mary jane

    2 years ago

    This mornings news

    I thought I heard harpo was selling BC's power to the states now or soon. Are my ears playing tricks on me?? If I had my way all those out of work would be building a BIG wall to keep out water and power at hoem. Gordo has, it seems, sold us to the states as place to go for free resources and now harpo is in on it, YUCK

  • mary jane

    2 years ago

    corrections

    ment to say keeping our water and power at home It wasn't fun to hear

  • Bob Watts

    2 years ago

    Coalition!

    Coalition with the P.Q., Bonjour would you like the Poutine with that?
    Harper knows the French make better lovers.
    The P.Q. only voted with Harper because, the francophones had their Bonhomme rubber the right way!
    Will Harper keep up this amour love fest with these Francophiles, will he arrange a secret rendezvous at the Chateau Frontenac? Will the English seperatist Harper and the French seperatists join together and make this nation Esperanto, or just the normal Harper cash under the table type deal?

  • Chris Keam

    2 years ago

    the picture

    at the top of the article really cries out for a caption contest.

    "I'm all out of railroads and rivers, but I got some bridges I could let you have real cheap. A couple even come with bike lanes already installed for that faux-green look everybody loves."

  • Bob Watts

    2 years ago

    I love contests

    Campbell to Harper....you can wear my wifes panties there blue and so are my balls....
    Can I say that? LOL.

  • OilbertaRedTory

    2 years ago

    Harper's Coalition with Separatists ...

    ... is nothing new; his 'Reform' Party joined with the Bloc in the
    'Consensus Leadership for a New Century' (28 November 2000):

    And he joined the separatist cause with this proposal:
    "Separation, Alberta-style: It is time to seek a new relationship with Canada
    by Stephen Harper, National Post, December 8, 2000"

    And again Harper connives with separatists 9 Sept 2004 in his letter explaining to the Governor General how he, the Bloc (separatists?) and NDP (socialists?) could replace minority PM Martin without an election:

    September 9, 2004

    Her Excellency the Right Honourable Adrienne Clarkson,
    C.C., C.M.M., C.O.M., C.D.
    Governor General
    Rideau Hall
    1 Sussex Drive
    Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0A1

    Excellency,
    As leaders of the opposition parties, we are well aware that, given the Liberal minority government, you could be asked by the Prime Minister
    to dissolve the 38th Parliament at any time should the House of Commons fail to support some part of the government's program.
    We respectfully point out that the opposition parties, who together constitute a majority in the House, have been in close consultation. We
    believe that, should a request for dissolution arise this should give you cause, as constitutional practice has determined, to consult the
    opposition leaders and consider all of your options before exercising your constitutional authority.
    Your attention to this matter is appreciated.
    Sincerely,
    Hon. Stephen Harper, P.C., M.P.
    Leader of the Opposition
    Leader of the Conservative Party of Ca

    ***
    It is the duty of every voter and journalist to dispute 'Conservative' MPs commitment to separatists; the evidence against them from their leader is damning.

  • OilbertaRedTory

    2 years ago

    Harper's Alberta Agenda

    His separatist commitments (as expressed in his letter to Alberta's Premier) should be questioned by every Canadian:

    "An economic slowdown, and perhaps even recession, threatens North America, the government in Ottawa will be tempted to take advantage of Alberta’s prosperity, to redistribute income from Alberta to residents of other provinces in order to keep itself in power. It is imperative to take the initiative, to build firewalls around Alberta, to limit the extent to which an aggressive and hostile federal government can encroach upon legitimate provincial jurisdiction."
    Harper et al
    27 Jan 2001 /National Post

    ****
    Perhaps he thinks Albertans planted the tar in the sands ?

  • OilbertaRedTory

    2 years ago

    Harper's Majority no dream for Obama

    pro-forma visitor met by deputy at the Big House.

    http://www.youtube.com/user/harperfuntime

  • happy

    2 years ago

    And not just the seperatists

    The NDP's on board too!

    How come no comments on that? Why is Jack propping up the Cons now after bragging for years about how he always votes aginst them and the Liberals were wimps for voting with them.

    I guess a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Cons now, eh people?

  • driftwolf

    2 years ago

    in the bag

    Given that the local easily fooled populace keep voting in the uber-right-wing Campbell Liberals into power, I have no doubt that these same idiots will help Harper get a majority.

    A Harper majority government, combined with the current Campbell majority provincial government, will probably spell the death-knell of B.C. as a nice place to live. From oil-encrusted shoreline thanks to offshore oil platforms, to a complete lack of wild salmon (or any other fish) thanks to continued government support (and complete lack of oversight) for fish farms, to moving towards an American style health care system of "good for the rich, the poor can just die", it's going to get a lot uglier around here.

  • OilbertaRedTory

    2 years ago

    happily, Harper ...

    ... will now do the honourable thing and refuse the support of separatists and socialists, resigning as PM so the GG can exercise constitutional authority by consulting with the leaders of the opposition, who together form a majority in the House.

    As Harper so happily described in 2004.

    Agreed ?

  • sicntired

    2 years ago

    canwest/global polls have no credibility

    As long as Harper supports Israel he knows he can count on canwest global to pose the questions to favor the Conservatives.Anyone listening to the recent attack ads must wonder with Harper courting the Bloc and the NDP.These are the same parties he was calling seperatists and socialists just a few days ago.I even read one conservative supporter trying to explain the difference between Harpers coallition and Ignatieffs.These people are so deluded they just don't get the desperation Harper is using to try to sway electors with lies and half truths designed to save his job at any cost,including a coallition with the NDP and the Bloc.

  • happy

    2 years ago

    Its ok ORT

    I can understand. Night is day, left is right, up is down, and now socialists and seperatists support cons.

    I'd be upset too. Direct your anger at Jack though, he's the one who sold you out. In the end he's just another two faced politician, agreed?

  • G West

    2 years ago

    happy

    Nope!

    You WANT an election?

  • Lorne

    2 years ago

    Poles/Polls

    Morechatter, for heaven's sake, please take a moment and check your spelling. When speaking of elections, you are talking about "polls", not "poles". Mind you ,there seem to be a great number of Reform/CRAPP/Alliance/Conservative supporters who would vote for a telephone "pole", should it have an RCAC sign plastered on it when they went to the "poll".

  • RickW

    2 years ago

    Is the EI concession Layton's 30 pieces of silver?

    From what I understand of it, EI concessions will help southern Ontario, but will do diddly squat for BC forest industry, where bad times have plagued forestry workers for quite a lot longer than the auto workers have experienced.

  • G West

    2 years ago

    Rick W

    I think there's another elephant in the room too.

    My analysis of the numbers indicates that the folks who are really experiencing high unemployment and shortages of decent work are young people - they too aren't much helped by the current proposals.

  • freebear

    2 years ago

    Picture Caption

    So we had all the e-mails deleted; they have nothing on us Steve!

  • Skywalker

    2 years ago

    The story is Harper and the separatists...

    ..it was Harper who whipped himself into frenzy over a coalition with the separatist last Jan. - the two-faced politician that he is. Jack, who has been shunned by 'no coalition' Iggy, is just giving Iggy some payback.

  • freebear

    2 years ago

    And Harper's reply

    If your happy and you know it clap your hands!

  • Skywalker

    2 years ago

    freebear

    Love the caption.

  • Dr Alexander

    2 years ago

    Chris Keam "The Picture" redux

    "That's right Steve. I am actually THE MAN FROM GLAD"

  • Dr Alexander

    2 years ago

    Caption Contest Redux

    "You should be happy Steve, your buddy Rahim is now suited to take over my position as Premier of BC"

  • Skywalker

    2 years ago

    More captions

    Campbell: Promise anything that gets votes before, after do whatever the hell you want.
    Harper: I love it.

  • freebear

    2 years ago

    Campbell: We'' call it a green powerline

    Brilliant, the greenwashing is going wonderfully said Steve!

  • freebear

    2 years ago

    I think the Tyee needs a caption contest!

    What say you Tyee; a good idea me thinks!

  • morechatter

    2 years ago

    How about a little irony instead?

    I couldn't help but see the irony as Harper wants to know "What about Obama's buy America Policy?"
    However in reality it's America's thirst for Canada's Oil driving up Canada's dollar discouraging trade with America.

    Canadians also have no problem shopping where the best deals can be found as vehicle sells from the USA have doubled in BC in the last couple of years. All the while Canadian tax dollars are bailing the Industry out, so shopping for Canadian vehicles is an easy sell you would think.

    I don't think it is a bad idea to encourage fellow citizens to shop for local produce and buy Canadian when ever possible and support their local industries in these hard times in fact it should be called for.

    More Irony: When using spell cheque and Obama's name comes up ABM is the first solution offered for correct spelling. Funny, I thought since it could mean Anti bulistic missle base to Abahlali base Mjondolo a movement of South Africian shackdwellers to an automated bank machine.

  • morechatter

    2 years ago

    And It should be called for

    I don't mean forced down your throats or enforced in any way but encouragement and promoting buying Canadian when possible, more of that I guess and not an advertising campaign but of something instilled in Canadians values, what ever those are, especially since Campbell and Harper have taken up Shop. Do your value your country then support it when you can. That kinda stuff.
    And of course I meant check, but a cheque but that couldn't hurt either.

  • OilbertaRedTory

    2 years ago

    happily, Parliamentary coalitions, of any stripes, ...

    ... are a more constitutional solution for minority governments within our dysfunctional electoral system than Harper's pro-rogueing posturing.

    Or we could finally implement the last outstanding agenda item of Chartists ; annual elections :

    http://www.victorianweb.org/history/hist3.html

    from 1838.

  • happy

    2 years ago

    No, I didn't want an election West

    But you sure did, and a hell of a lot of others here too.
    No price too great to pay to rid Canada of the Con scourge before there is no country left to recognize.
    Whatever it takes, they have to go.
    The worst Government, no, Dictatorship ever, in the history of the world!
    Rise up people before its too late!!!

    And now....well, no one said we wanted an election happy, what are you talking about?

    I think your all in shock. Rick W's the only one not stick handling around the issue.

    That Iggy may have more political smarts than we gave him credit for. He figured the dippers and blocheads had more to lose than the libs would so he called their bluff.

    They blinked.

    So yes, Jack in particular, Duceppe less so in this circumstance, are two faced politicians.

    Just like the weasels Gordo and Stevee. No better.

    (PS West, I read on a blog somewhere where a poster had a hilarious nickname for your Peewee which I think is way better - Poppin fresh! Too funny. Cheers)

  • G West

    2 years ago

    Wrong

    I wanted the coalition to take over when Pee Wee pulled his little gambit last December...you appear to have forgotten that.

    Absent his fascist leanings and a month and a half of dictatorship we'd have had a coalition government since before Christmas - and one that represented the democratic wishes of a hell of a lot more people than have ever supported Pee Wee.

    That's what I wanted happy.

    Pee Wee Rambo isn't mine Happy - I borrowed it from an editorial in Le Devoir.

    Jack didn't blink man - the Liberals did...

  • RickW

    2 years ago

    GWest

    I think the majority of people (when they care to think of it) are of the opinion that "young people" are lazy, because they don't want to "flip burgers". In reality, there are few jobs available for the 18-24 year olds to begin with. When I was a "young person", it didn't seem to much matter what job one began with, because there was ALWAYS something else up ahead. I am not so sure HOW the young view this today........

  • happy

    2 years ago

    Wrong?

    I know thats what you wanted last December, and everyone else here too, I'm not that dim for a neo.

    OK, just so we're clear then going forward - no one wants an election, the cons are fine for now and you all agree Jack and Duceppe did the right thing to support them and reverse positions with the grits. And in no way is this a flip flop.

    Would that sum it up?

    Oh, and West. Your comment about how a coalition would have represented the majority of Canadians - then why was such a huge majority of Canadians absolutely opposed to such? Remember the No Coalition rally's? Wasn't that long ago.

  • Skywalker

    2 years ago

    Horse#*@%

    What huge majority were opposed? Were they opposed to getting in bed with the separatists, so much so that Harper is now in bed with them? Was the media explaining the role of a coalition when minority governments become the norm? Were the public so outraged they gave Harper another minority government? What are you talking about Happy?

  • OilbertaRedTory

    2 years ago

    happily, flipping and flopping ...

    ... isn't just for burger joints.

    Harper and supporters now disavow any knowledge of their antipathy toward 'separatists and socialists' in order to stay in power at all costs, betraying their economic beliefs, betraying their moralizing commitments to religious fanaticisms and betraying their populist pretences.

    Just to avoid Harper's law for a fixed election in Oct 2009:

    "Fixed election dates prevent governments from calling snap elections for short-term political advantage," Harper said. "They level the playing field for all parties and the rules are clear for everybody. But fixed election dates stop leaders from trying to manipulate the calendar simply for partisan political advantage."

    http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2006/05/26/fixed-vote-060526.html

    The partisans' fix is in :

    http://www.dwatch.ca/camp/RelsSep0809.html

  • happy

    2 years ago

    Keep it civil Skywalker. No need to swear

    You have just proven beyond doubt that you really don't read any news outside of the Tyee if you never heard of the Public backlash against the proposed Coalition. Try Googling "No Coalition rally" and see how many hits you get. And then contrast the size of those rallys against the "Yes Coalition rallys" and you might get the idea. Might.

    Harpers not in bed with anyone Skywalker. What special deal did he put in writing like your failed Coaltion did? Nothing. He dared the opposition to go ahead, defeat them. They backed off. It really is that simple.

    No more media conspiracy please Skywalker. You're not qaulified to comment by you own admissions, that is unless you want to discuss the the stories the Tyee won't touch with a 100 foot pole. Theres a media conspiracy. Do you?

  • OilbertaRedTory

    2 years ago

    happily, the set-up may be succeeding ...

    ... by removing one arrow from Harper's broken quiver :

    http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/090910/national/fedelxn_harper_controversy

    He has now proven his willingness to be propped up by socialists and separatists to clutch at power.

    Having abandoned his economic mythologies for reality, having abandoned his evangelical missionary piety for secularist judgement and having prorogued constitutional norms, all that remains is a shell of venality and hubris.

    His lies simply aren't working anymore.

  • happy

    2 years ago

    O R T

    Still not getting it. Harper didn't do anything to be "propped up" by socialists and separatists to "clutch" at power.
    He gave the Opposition a choice. Vote with the Government, with NO CONDITIONS, or they could vote against the Government and force an election.
    Yes or no. that simple. No secret deals, or power sharing like the Coalition envisioned.
    Harper played the Opposition like fish in this one, knowing the Public would crucify any party that forced an election at this time. Even the Bloc wouldn't have been spared in Quebec had they been the party that sent us back to the voting booths.
    My friend West has called Duceppe the smartest politician of the bunch, I tend to agree after the events of this week.
    He can tell which way the political winds are blowing all right, which is why he was the first to get on board with Harper.
    So ORT, if Harpers lies aren't working anymore take it up with Jack. He had the power to do something about it, in fact he's been bragging for months he would bring down the government at the first opportunity.

    Why didn't he?

  • Skywalker

    2 years ago

    But he is he is willingly ..

    ...being propped up by the separatists and the socialists for no specified time just like the liberals except theirs has a time limit.

  • G West

    2 years ago

    Well Happy

    Because the 'conditions' have changed...Pee Wee threw the clutch last December and suspended democracy because he'd lost the confidence of parliament.

    That's our system and whether you (and he) like it or not, Harper and his 'brain' trust in Calgary don't have any respect for the system.

    Therefore, instead of living by the rules he became the 'immoral' successor to John A MacDonald who did the same thing to avoid the consequences of the Pacific scandal...The people who publish the papers in this country have neither the wit nor the education to understand those facts so they don't even present them.

    Pee Wee and his gang of fascist thugs (Did you just notice what happened to his old best buddy and huge drug opponent Rahim Jaffer?) prefer to manipulate the media and that's why I don't care a fig for what the polls said either then or now.

    What's sad is that some otherwise intelligent people apparently 'believe' this stuff.

    As for what happens when Pee Wee loses - if the Canadian people don't 'want' an election, the coalition can come together once the Conmen lose that vote and, entirely within the traditions of the system, take the case to the GG once again...

    It still hasn't been a year since the last election and Jack may still have his day....One thing I do know, Pee Wee understands ‘nothing’ about Quebec

  • G West

    2 years ago

    RickW

    Don't disagree with much of what you've said.

    One of the most depressing things I see about our present condition in this country is the state of young peoples' spirits.

    They've either bought the wealthy realtor image and see themselves as Tom Wolfeian 'Bonfire of the Vanities' narcissists driving over whomever gets in their way along the road to moral poverty and monetary ‘success’ or they've given up and surrendered their dreams to a lifetime of working for less than they need for people who couldn't care less where they live or what their 'future' may bring.

    The kind of future Bobby Peru says is 'just the way it is' in a failed capitalist state.

    What has happened to the unemployment insurance program in this country is all the evidence one really needs....this country has seriously lost its way....
    There is no reason that an unemployment insurance scheme can’t help both young and old – when they need it.

  • G West

    2 years ago

    And happy

    Those rallies?

    I remember them but I also remember a whole lot of pro-coalition rallies too...maybe you forgot about them.

    Among people I know and respect there has never been any illusion about what Harper represents for this country's future...there are a few exceptions, but the vast majority of my friends were very pleased to think we might actually end up with a government which represented the broader and more diverse interests of ALL the people in this country - not just the 'west', or the Maritimes, or Quebec, or central Canada.

    You know, a ‘coalition’….instead of a competition!

    You and Pee Wee seem to prefer a nation where the regions and the diversity of the place are played off against one another...I think that's sad, dangerous, and needs changing.

  • Dr Alexander

    2 years ago

    Probably the best "windows to the soul" of Harper is:

    How he got to be the boss of the Conservatives in the first place.

    And the biggest irony is that Peter MacKay, that oft-revered young fellow from Eastern Canada, who, along with Elsie Wayne, survived the de facto Mulroney purge, was so instrumental in the destruction of what was the Progressive Conservatives.

    Collectively, todays lot of Conservatives cannot hold a candle to one Bob Stanfield or Joe Clark

    And one sweater vest cannot cover over the Machiavelli that is the PM of Canada.

  • Dr Alexander

    2 years ago

    G West, you are good at espousing things parliamentary, perhaps

    you could explain how, in Canada, we do not elect "leaders", we elect representatives.

    Steven Harper is not the "leader" of Canada. He is the Prime Minister. He is not my leader, he is my prime minister.

  • Skywalker

    2 years ago

    He may be Canada's Prime Minister...

    ....but not "my" Prime Minister. He certainly does not represent me nor does he do anything I want to make him "mine".

  • OilbertaRedTory

    2 years ago

    happily, Harper's Shifting Theories (HST) ...

    ... of economic reality have even been noticed by the big boys :

    http://www.canadianbusiness.com/managing/strategy/article.jsp?content=20090303_10002_10002&page=1

    And now Harper's shifted to 'Fantasyland' with the help of his new "separatist and socialist" buddies.

    http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Tory+minister+blasts+Liberal+demand+fantasyland/1841311/story.html

    Pizza and beer for everyone on moving day !

  • crankypants

    2 years ago

    Dr. Alexander

    Welcome to party politics. The candidates that go to Ottawa or Victoria represent the party, not the constituents that sent them there. Of course they will not tell you that before you elect them and in some cases may actually believe they will have some autonomy. They become nothing more than trained seals doing the bidding of their leader and his inner circle. Those that step out of line feel the wrath of the team and soon fall back in step with the programme. The only way to get proper representation would be if political parties went the way of the Edsel. Then, and only then would the candidates fear the voter more than the party.

  • morechatter

    2 years ago

    Harper and Campbell at it again!

    If you notice the word fraud in the title you gotta know by now somehow are premier and prime minister are involved.
    Robinson termed it the “great Canadian con,” while the Economist is asking “… why the government thinks consumers should be hoodwinked.” Even the Wine Spectator has waded in the mess, backing Ontario grape growers who claim the practice is tarnishing the reputation of local wine and jeopardizing their livelihood.

    http://www.vancouversun.com/life/Gismondi+great+Canadian+wine+fraud/2008622/story.html

    Just can't get seem to get enough of selling Canadians short.

  • morechatter

    2 years ago

    I don't get it!

    EI in no way has addressed the needs of Canadians and government will only cause further harm, while many of government policies and practices are a serious problem to working Canadians as decisions governments are making are also costing many Canadians jobs. With promises of it is going to get a whole lot worst before it gets better makes you wonder how this is going to all work out as left with little hope.

  • morechatter

    2 years ago

    Oh and the Polls and the Poles

    Well that just takes me down memory lane as Luke Skywalker would keep us in all the numbers. But I certain you got my drift and it wasn't a spelling mistake it was more a word choice as felt spin doctors would be more interesting if they worked the poles.

  • realisticman

    2 years ago

    small-c's gravitating to the Conservatives too

    Dion Redux says Chantal.

    http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/697510

    Has Iggy had his 15 minutes already?

  • RickW

    2 years ago

    happy

    Quote:
    Harper played the Opposition like fish in this one, knowing the Public would crucify any party that forced an election at this time. Even the Bloc wouldn't have been spared in Quebec had they been the party that sent us back to the voting booths.

    The ONLY reason Harpr can "play" the opposition is because the Con war chest is full, while the oppositions' is spare.

    Recognizing this, he CAN govern as though he had a majority. Joe Clark tried this at the close of of 70's, but made the mistake of not having a "lever" to use against the then opposition of P.E.T.'s Liberals (not to mention that voter turnout was customarily in the 70 percentile range).
    http://www.elections.ca/content.asp?section=pas&document=turnout&lang=e
    But Harper has driven this turnout down to near-50%, knowing full well that lower turnouts favour the governing party. And he has driven the turnout by the simple expedient of "giving" Canadians many other things to occupy their time with (such as adding to the effects of the recession). This time around, he is presenting himself as "savior" of the economy by talking to "socialists and separatists". But he has not actually DONE anything with regards to putting Canucks back to work.
    http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=12007

  • OilbertaRedTory

    2 years ago

    realistically, small-c's gravitate away ...

    ... from big lies.

    Harper now brings Palin's Panels for Death to the table :

    http://tiny.cc/deathpanels680

  • mary jane

    2 years ago

    After the Rally

    I watched with interest, the numbers at the 19 rallies. the numbers reported on the tv news were much lower than the online province reported. humm The best part was the look on hansens face - a greyish strain - not the smart asp grin. YES now the referendum (I need spell check). More soon I hope

  • G West

    2 years ago

    pee wee the clever cynic

    A real majority of Canadians will never long for either a right wing government nor a mean-spirited selfish society. Harper and his brain trust from Calgary - many of then former and some current Americans and all lovers of failed supply-side economics - have taken shrewd advantage of a fractured liberal/left by downplaying their truly conservative agenda while moving "incrementally" to secure power and begin testing that agenda. That's what all this is about - just as the move last fall to 'change' the formula for political financing was.

    Harper has plenty of resources and scenarios to play with in a country that has always tended to be fractured by regional jealousies and widely disparate resources and demographics.

    The sad part is that many open-minded and basically 'liberal' Canadians can't see him for what he actually is.

  • realisticman

    2 years ago

    Jack Layton and the NDP

    ...see Harper for what he is, namely someone who brings forth policies that are good for Canada and that is why he went onside this week and supported Stephen Harper and kept him in the PM seat.

    This was the 80th time that Jack has supported Stephen Harper in the House. He obviously sees in Harper a good Prime Minister and he is there to support him.

    "The events of the last week "are an example of Jack Layton trying to take a page from Darrell Dexter," said Anthony Salloum, program director at the Rideau Institute think-tank and a former staffer for Alexa McDonough when she led the NDP.

    Salloum, who is also close to Dexter, said the Nova Scotia premier had a patient, pragmatic approach to politics when he was in opposition. He didn’t oppose for opposition’s sake, and would hold his nose and support measures that made sense. Gradually, he expanded his base that way, developing a reputation for being practical rather than partisan."

    As long as Jack supports Harper, Harper is there to stay - for quite a while.

  • G West

    2 years ago

    Nothing to do with the NDP

    A real majority of Canadians will never long for either a right wing government nor a mean-spirited selfish society. Harper and his brain trust from Calgary - many of then former and some current Americans and all lovers of failed supply-side economics - have taken shrewd advantage of a fractured liberal/left by downplaying their truly conservative agenda while moving "incrementally" to secure power and begin testing that agenda. That's what all this is about - just as the move last fall to 'change' the formula for political financing was.

    Layton can get some of what is needed for Canada - even from a narcissist like Harper.

    His need for power subsumes everything else...and he 'changes' colour like a chameleon as necessary - but he's really a lizard no matter what costume he adopts. He’ll keep shoveling money to special interests and ‘framing’ his policies to serve his OWN interests…

  • realisticman

    2 years ago

    a Chameleon

    That's what Canadians, from all persuasions, including NDP supporters, want. A PM that listens and governs according to changing times and requirements that are best for the country. This is why more and more people are moving towards emphatically supporting the, so far, refreshingly excellent Stephen Harper Conservatives.

    Harper's policies are clearly benefiting all Canadians and more people are recognizing this.

    The old politics driven by ideology is over, like when Jack Layton declared in January that he was going to oppose the Budget even before he knew what it contained! Canadians have had enough of that confrontational game and will no longer accept the scare tactics based on generating fear, that the Liberals and the NDP always go on about.

    "An Angus-Reid online poll released last week showed that the Conservatives were leading the pack with 36 per cent support followed by the Liberals with 29 per cent, the NDP 17 per cent, the Bloc 10 per cent and the Green Party seven per cent. An Ipsos Reid poll showed that the Conservatives have the support of 39 per cent of Canadians compared to the Liberals who were at 30 per cent, the NDP at 12 per cent, Bloc Québécois at nine per cent and the Green Party at eight per cent. An Ekos poll released on Thursday put the Tory support at 35.1 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 29.9 per cent, NDP at 16.5 per cent, the Bloc Québécois with 9.6 per cent and the Green Party with nine per cent. John Wright, senior vice-president of Ipsos Canada, said that Mr. Ignatieff did not lose any support in public opinion polls but rather Mr. Harper made gains because of his performance in handling the Canadian economy." (Abbas Rana, The Hill Times)

  • G West

    2 years ago

    As pointed out on another thread....

    Harper's policies are clearly benefiting all Canadians and more people are recognizing this.

    And, as Rafe so accurately points out, another important part of the scam is devotion to the Führerprinzip...Blondi's place being taken, in Pee Wee's case, by a small orange and seemingly very frightened kitten...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KC9XfcJFeOM

  • Skywalker

    2 years ago

    Good article Rafe.

    You got it right about all the players. It is probably a good thing that Canadians are less into celebrity worship than they are in the U.S.. Still it is troubling that there seem to be attempts to create the same mentality here. Turning a politician into a "celebrity" gets downright scary considering who these guys really are and what they think about their "fans".

    I always wonder about people who can only relate to animals. Maybe he needs a friendly face to counterpoint his smirk. It is hard to pretend you are something warm and caring when all your actions show otherwise.

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