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Province's Economy Much Worse than We Were Told

New StatsCan numbers likely mean bigger budget deficit or spending cuts: experts.

By Andrew MacLeod, 28 Apr 2009, TheTyee.ca

Helmut Pastrick

Helmut Pastrick of Central 1 Credit Union: Deficit will be 'even worse' now.

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With two weeks to go in a provincial election supposedly about the economy, Statistics Canada dropped what should be a bombshell: the provincial economy was already in recession in 2008.

"In British Columbia, [Gross Domestic Product] fell 0.3 percent, its first decline since 1982," said an April 27 newsletter from StatsCan, the federal government's research agency. That was worse than every province except for Ontario.

Nationally the GDP grew an average of 0.5 percent, putting B.C. well below the pack.

The decline shows B.C.'s economy is in worse shape than many observers thought, and politicians claimed, and has been weak for longer. It also adds a new level of doubt about the accuracy of the provincial budget for 2009-2010 upon which the Liberals are campaigning.

As recently as November Finance Minister Colin Hansen was insisting the provincial economy was in relatively good shape. "British Columbia, according to all the leading economists, can still anticipate positive economic growth through this very difficult time," he said then.

Even in February of this year, when Hansen released a downgrading of the economic forecast for 2009, the province's 12-person economic forecast council was still on average predicting 1.3 per cent growth in 2008 and a flat economy this year.

What does Hansen make of StatsCan's new figures?

"They were obviously lower than we would have anticipated for 2008," he told The Tyee. "Most economists agree B.C.'s economy will lead Canada in 2010 as we emerge from the recession," he said. “There's no question we're in it, it's how strongly do we come out.”

Forecasters humbled

"It was a little bit of a surprise," said Jock Finlayson, an executive vice-president of the B.C. Business Council and a member of the province's forecast council. "We're just digesting the data that lies behind it now."

The recession is global, and it's big, he said. "Contrary to what some people thought, we've been fully captured by it here in Western Canada," he said. "There may have been some people who felt we were insulated from the U.S. downturn, but now that it's become a global downturn we're not insulated from it.

"I think that view which may have made some sense when it was first articulated has really been bypassed by events."

The declining numbers, and the consistently optimistic but wrong projections, has many forecasters wondering what they missed, he said. "This last 18 months is a very humbling time for people who are trying to forecast."

A weak forest sector is part of the story, but not all of it, he said. "Forestry was weak before 2008." There have also been drops in prices for all kinds of commodities, including metals and natural gas. Construction has slowed too.

Construction was still growing in 2008, pointed out Marc Lee, an economist with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives in a blog post. "With the sharp drop off in new building permits and construction starts, this sector will turn negative in 2009," he wrote.

"We'll see an appreciable decline in B.C. this year in the real GDP," Finlayson said. The contraction will be at least two percent, he said, a significant revision from what he predicted back in January. "It could easily be more than that."

Trouble for Liberal budget

Such a large revision would also spell big problems for the provincial budget, Finlayson said.

When Hansen presented the budget it was based on a "conservative" estimate that the provincial economy would contract by 0.9 percent in 2009, followed by a rebound in 2010 and 2011.

"It will be very challenging it seems to me to reach their numbers post election," said Finlayson. "To meet the deficit targets, I'm not saying it's impossible, but it would be very hard to do...I would suspect that post election whoever's in power will have to take a fresh look at the budget."

Premier Gordon Campbell insisted last week that if his party is re-elected they will "pretty much" stick to the February budget and keep within the projected deficit. "I can tell you this: the deficit for 2009-10 will be $495 million maximum."

If Finlayson is right, revenues will be down by another billion or so and a Campbell government would have to do some heavy cutting to stick to the deficit promise.

Even when presented, the budget, which got rid of the $750 million forecast allowance from previous years and other wiggle room, was seen to be tight as noted on The Hook, by the Tyee's Will McMartin who called it toxic fudge, by Chief Economist Helmut Pastrick at Central 1 Credit Union and by the Dominion Bond Rating Service.

Big deficit, or cuts?

As part of his work for the credit union, Pastrick also sits on the province's economic forecast council. Back in January he was predicting a one percent GDP contraction for 2009. Before the StatsCan update he'd already dropped his forecast to a 2.2 percent drop.

"I'm going back to the drawing board to incorporate these new numbers and I'm sure everyone else will as well," he said.

Nor does he think Campbell's deficit pledge will stick. Back in February Pastrick wrote a report on the provincial budget that said, "A deficit of $1 to $1.5 billion or 0.6 percent of GDP in 2009/10 is the more likely outcome due to revenue shortfalls."

"I'm still of that view," he said. And with the new StatsCan figures, he added, "It makes it even worse."

He also pointed out that the StatsCan figures for 2008 will be revised over the next three years as more data comes in and is added to the analysis. They could easily shift by as much as plus or minus one percent, he said, meaning the provincial economy may yet be in positive territory, or it may be declining faster than thought.

"No one really adequately anticipated the financial crisis," he said. "We all work of current information, the latest and best available, and that's what Statistics Canada's numbers are."

But Finance Minister Hansen said on Monday the February budget was based on what remains a conservative estimate of strength of the province's economy. "There's a lot of prudence built in to all levels of those revenue forecasts."

"At this point I'm not anticipating any dramatic departure from what we tabled in February."

He also suggested the economy has improved in the past few months. "We haven't seen the kind of deterioration in the economy that we were seeing in the last months of 2008."

No time for issues

What the financial weakness means on the campaign trail remains to be seen.

Calls to the NDP were directed to finance critic Bruce Ralston who did not call back by posting time.

"Obviously it isn't helpful for any incumbent government to be faced with a worse than expected set of numbers," said Finlayson. "There's not a lot of good news out there."

He hastened to add though that most people understand that the crisis is global and though politicians often claim credit when things go well, provincial policies play little role in the economy.

"We're not much more than a grain of sand in the worldwide economy," he said. Some $50 trillion value in financial assets virtually disappeared in 2008. "Against that backdrop the claims and counterclaims in the B.C. election don't add up to all that much."

According to StatsCan, only Ontario had a greater drop in GDP than B.C. in 2008, with a shrinking of 0.4 percent. Saskatchewan's economy led growth, with a 4.4 percent surge.

The Tyee reported in March 2008 that despite signs the province was entering a recession the government was doing little to acknowledge the severity of the situation, let alone to address it.

It's worth noting, however, that at least one Liberal candidate argues that social services are dependent on a strong economy.

"In all reality people that have a mental illness cannot take care of themselves and as a society we need to make sure those services are there," said Dallas Henault during an April 24 all candidates' meeting in Victoria-Beacon Hill. "But only when we have the funds to provide them that, so we have to make sure we have a strong economy, that we have a strong base there to ensure we can provide those services."

Before the election Henault worked for the Liberal Party as executive assistant to the executive director, Kelly Reichert.

Related Tyee stories:

[Tyee]

Andrew MacLeod is The Tyee's Legislative Bureau Chief in Victoria. You can reach him here.

44 Comments:

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  • Gary

    3 years ago

    Lies, lies, lies

    I'm sick to death with all the lies the liberals are putting out.
    Campbell, being the micro manager he is and Hansen being the finance minister should have known (and I allege they did) how bad the economy is. This is outrageous. I wonder how they are going to blame the NDP on this one?

    Campbell is spouting the lie how he is best suited to manage the economy and he can't even manage it going into the DEPRESSION. Part of being a manager is telling your bosses the truth. WE ARE HIS BOSS AND HE LIED.
    Time to go Gordo

  • Jeffrey J.

    3 years ago

    Think of the Nightmare of 4 More Campbell Years

    The Campbell Liberals have faithfully copied the neoconservative make-over plan for society. Less taxes, fewer services, increasing crime, more police surveillance, a wealthy elite. Four more years of Liberal rule will dramatically change BC even more. Just think of the damage they can do to society!

    Not an encouraging time for a once vibrant, progressive culture. The NDP is really the only party that tries to support the majority of our citizens in responding to this Harper/Campbell agenda. Which is why they are so vilified by the business community. Who the public will choose on May 12 will have significant impacts.

  • alive

    3 years ago

    translation

    I'm going back to the drawing board to incorporate these new numbers and I'm sure everyone else will as well,"

    That, is a new way to say: "I need to talk to my spindoctor!"

  • Terrys_Hot

    3 years ago

    To Bad

    To Bad The Tyee wasn't in paper form too let rest of British Columbia read the true facts instead of the Gordo Rubbish that he is trying too sell too the rest of the province...Maybe more people would wake up and smell the sour words of the so called Great One Campbell the more he opens his mouth the more I don't like his party or him for that matter....I am an unemployed forestry worker and thanks too the Great Gordo I can't see working in the forest industry in along long time too come thanks too Gordo giving our resources too the Americans. I guess that was part of the deal when he got nailed in Hawaii for impaired driving.

  • Rod Smelser

    3 years ago

    Remember 1983

    In this context people need to remember the 1983 provincial election. One of Premier Gordon M. Campbell's chief political idols, Premier William R. Bennett, won re-election on a "restraint" platform that was thought to mean legislated caps on public sector wage increases.

    Once the election of May 5th was over,the re-elected Bennett Govt sat down with the Fraser Institute to redo its budget. In early July Finance Minister Hugh A. Curtis presented the real Restraint budget which reduced public services and public sector employment by large percentages, raised the provincial sales tax, and eliminated some basic human rights protection as an added bonus for Neanderthal employers. Many people were shocked, or said they were. They had voted for what they thought, or said they thought, was wage moderation and got radical retrenchement instead. Bait and switch for some, a cleverly concealed strategy for others.

    Are Gordon Campbell and Colin Hansen travelling down the same road as Bill Bennett and Hugh Curtis? I believe they are, and I would be shocked if any BC Liberal really doubts that or would want it any other way.

    Once again, the hard right takes the attitude that it would be a damn shame to let a recession go by without using it as a pretext to punish one's rivals and advantage one's donors. No doubt many of the environmental "leaders" clinging to the Premier's side have seen the danger and have decided that they and their organizations, employees and donors need to be on the inside pissing out rather than on the outside being pissed upon. Fear is a great motivator, especially when its based on a perfectly sober assessment of real hazards.

    As for BC's economy in 2008, seasonally adjusted employment essentially stopped growing in March of last year, and after that it was flat till the final quarter. Once the construction sector started to turn down in the last quarter, the sun had basically set on the BC job market, since it was that industry that had more-or-less single-handedly propelled the growth in BC employment over the previous five years of expansion.

  • freebear

    3 years ago

    Can You Say Fudge It Budget!!!!

    Remind everyone again Fiberals about the Fast Ferries to avoid answering the question!

  • G West

    3 years ago

    Rod

    There's little if any question they are travelling that same rutted path.

    In the public sector most contractors and part-time appointments have already been scrapped. In some ministries individuals are already working on 80% schedules..the cupboard is bare.

    Talk to anyone in the finance ministry, you'll see that the blood is already flowing.

  • pkelly

    3 years ago

    BC Liberal fudge-it-budget

    Their original estimate for only a $495 million deficit is a farce too. I mean, they projected an INCREASE in revenue derrived from personal income taxes in BC. How is this possible with even fewer people working?
    If these morons get re-elected, expect a deficit of $3-4 billion. Then expect look for budget cuts that will make Campbells first term look tame by comparison. Do you want another 4 years of this?

  • cocean

    3 years ago

    Liberals Lie, NDP Clueless

    There ARE other choices, ya know. If you've a strong candidate of another party or a strong independent candidate running in your electoral district, vote for that candidate instead. For anyone here who is pro FPTP, now's the time to prove the system of the status quo can deliver MLAs other than of the Liberal or NDP persuasion.

  • morechatter

    3 years ago

    Its A Genocide of the Poor

    Its unbelievable that a province could possibly be talking anymore cuts. As this Government stepped in making heavy handed cuts to those most in need and there is nothing more to cut except their very existance. As government cuts have already resulted in many being unable to survive the harshness of Government cuts as they check out. As many are already diseased and sick and going with out much needed treatment as they are left to die on Vancouver's streets. I'm not sure about Victoria apparently its number one place to live or die maybe in this case. I'm sure they probably pick up the bodies before the kids are off to school unlike Vancouver.

  • morechatter

    3 years ago

    And Enviromential Leaders are Losers

    A need to give their heads a shake because they are backing Campbell, the guy most likely to pollute in the biggest possible way. Like the Olympics and 450,000 tonnes of carbon being being dumped into the environment. You know how much that is? Thats what enough carbon to run a country for a year, a province, a city? Or a ten day sporting event.

  • Rod Smelser

    3 years ago

    Who in Finance?

    G West
    Talk to anyone in the finance ministry, you'll see that the blood is already flowing.

    Why haven't any of these people in Finance spoken off the record to the press?

  • G West

    3 years ago

    Rod

    Because they're afraid of losing their OWN jobs - but, trust me, the off the record conversations are going on all the time.

    The fella I'm referring to (who's now on 80% pay) is pretty convinced he'd be on the streets now if he hadn't taken the cut.

    I was at pains to tell him that his days are numbered...and he didn't disagree.

  • G West

    3 years ago

    This isn't a question of competence...

    The Campbell Government's record is a record of the most egregious incompetence available - to suggest that Campbell and the business folks who push his buttons have been good managers of the public purse is the most bizarre of suggestions.

    It completely ignores the pathetic record of failure of this government to do any of the things they promised; to live up to any of the social commitments they made to the people of this province, to their children, to their health care and to the old and the disadvantage.

    Gordon Campbell kept one promise - to lower taxes to the people who finance his fascist takeover of the democratic and public sphere.

    If you care to stand on that record - so be it!

  • G West

    3 years ago

    erratum

    that's 'disadvanted'

    Sorry

  • G West

    3 years ago

    Jeez

    "disadvantaged"

  • Rod Smelser

    3 years ago

    morechatter: I know that, you know that, and they do too.

    morechatter
    A need to give their heads a shake because they are backing Campbell, the guy most likely to pollute in the biggest possible way.

    I know that, you know that, and they do too. That's not what's on their minds, obviously.

    It's perks and patronage and so-called "access", which means nice per diems and expenses while serving oh so faithfully on various panels and boards. And Govt consulting contracts for their donors and employees. Environmental leaders, just like ordinary people, have to service their mortgages and car loans.

    The people who need to give their heads a shake are not the environmental leaders. It's their followers, the ones who aren't on the payroll, that is, the ones who simply have an interest in the world outdoors.

  • Rod Smelser

    3 years ago

    Why aren't they being reported, even here?

    G West
    Because they're afraid of losing their OWN jobs - but, trust me, the off the record conversations are going on all the time.

    Job loss? If that's coming anyway you'd think the fear factor would be somewhat less than in normal times.

    If these off-the-record conversations are really going on all the time, why aren't they being reported, even here?

  • G West

    3 years ago

    I just reported one

    I'll see what else I can dig up. In the halls of power in Victoria you do NOT speak on the record - the walls have ears...I kid you not. I even hesitate to post what I've already reported - being scrupulously careful not to provided any details which might identify the people involved.

    jessica McDonald sends out regular emails to all staff. Many of these emails include suggestions about how costs 'could' be cut and efficiencies achieved. This whole process is full of marketing and PR code about what is really going on behind the screen in the premier's office.

    And there is a loyal coterie of 'yes' men and women (all OIC appointments and refugees from the discipline of the Public Service Act) running around taking notes and making plans.

    The place is a disaster of Kafkaesque proportions. If Campbell is returned to power, there will be a new budget - it's now estimated - within a month - work goes on as we speak! Did you miss this?
    http://tinyurl.com/cqcco5

  • pkelly

    3 years ago

    I know a way to cut funding...

    Step 1. Defeat the Liberals
    Step 2. Have a provincial cabinet with 10 less members (Liberals have 22 cabinet ministers with their inflated salaries...the NDP when they left office had 12 ministers drawing the bigger paycheques).
    Step 3. Fewer political appointees in the Premiers office (smaller budget)

    Might save only a few million, but its a step in the right direction.

  • Luke Skywalker

    3 years ago

    The Hamburger Poll...

    De Dutch restaurants, a chain of 18 BC casual dining restaurants, has been conducting a hamburger election poll through the campaign.

    Yesterday's cumulative results:

    Campbell Burger: 54%
    James Burger: 32%
    Sterk Burger: 15%

    After the 18% other burger has been factored out.

    http://www.dedutch.com/the-de-dutch-story/Hamburger-Polls2009.asp

    Just average folk speaking with their palates.

    It seems that the more the economy/finances comes to the forefront in the campaign, the further movement toward the Libs in public opinion.

  • G West

    3 years ago

    didn't even get that right Luke

    The numbers actually are:
    Chain Wide Results

    as of 11:59pm April 27th, 2009
    Campbell Burger 44%
    James Burger 26%
    Sterk Burger 12%

    Your allocation of the 'other' 18% seems just a little disingenuous - considering the fact that you're the poll addicted fella around here.

    What would be interesting to see would be whether the PAB is getting liberal supporters to rush to the defence of the CEO...something like this:

    http://www.publiceyeonline.com/archives/003848.html

    Just like phoney canwest/Ipsos Polls - the whole process has been brought into disrepute...keep the phone lines open my friend...I'd rather hear your reaction to Palmer's column in the Sun yesterday.

    Did you miss that while you were eating your campbellburger?

  • pkelly

    3 years ago

    burger poll

    Its almost funny that anyone would take that seriously...considering that with a dramatic spike in unemployment, many anti-campbell burger eaters can't afford to eat out. but it makes for an entertaining article at best though.

  • Luke Skywalker

    3 years ago

    Same Old G West...

    Dis-ingeniousness is thy name.

    Something akin to a pollster taking the "18%" undecided out of a poll, which you will never understand.

    As for the economy/government finances, some really dumb NDP proposals:

    1. Scrap carbon tax - NDP blows another ~$1.5 billion hole in provincial finances.

    2. $400 million "gas flaring" tax ('cause its like that in Alberta) NADA. Alberta as a gas flaring incentive program, NOT a tax;

    And the fallout from this idiotic NDP proposal? Marginal natural gas wells will be shut down resulting in a further decrease to the current $billions$ in annual royalty revenue flowing into BC's coffers;

    3. Micro hydro - BC Hydro is already ramped up to spend $billions$ in system upgrades. And micro-hydro producers are also investing $billions$ more in BC. The NDP wants to turn off that revenue tap as well.

    A few simple idiotic NDP policy planks. The net result? BC's finances will be further hit hard if these policies are implemented by at least $1 billion/year.

    Only the NDP. Time for them to sit in the penalty box, let them sort out their own infighting/internal problems and let the Greens become BC's opposition for a change.

  • Luke Skywalker

    3 years ago

    Hamburger Poll...

    The wealthy and upper middle-class don't eat at these burger joints. ;)

  • G West

    3 years ago

    whoops

    CAMPBELL TAX - you still haven't read bill 27 have you?

    Remember the Gord's talking points - it does not contribute to government revenue...it's 'revenue neutral' what comes in is laundered and spun back to Gordon's friends....

    If cancelling the Campbell tax leaves a 1.5 billion dollar hole in the exchequer it's because Campbell's been lying about it all along.

    Or did you miss that PAB memo.

    How much of Hydro's revenue now flows offshore to your friends with Accenture - or would you rather not discuss that either?

    Perhaps when you've hung up the phone we can discuss the ownership of Plutonic Power the excise tax payable on German ferries and the tax liability (now at 550 million) building on the CN / BC Rail deal.

    Now, what were you saying about idiocy - remember, you're the one who posted the cheesy poll...

  • freebear

    3 years ago

    If I only had a light sabre....

    Luke would be no more!

  • Frank

    3 years ago

    Luke

    Still always avoiding the article eh?

    3. micro-hydro invests billions? Yet you call them "micro-hydro"?

    2. "$400 million "gas flaring" tax"

    Which will do more to help the environment than the carbon tax.

    1. "1. Scrap carbon tax - NDP blows another ~$1.5 billion hole in provincial finances."

    And according to your numbers will provide $1.5 billion in tax relief, especially to the bottom half of the population.

    Not to mention that anyone supporting Campbell should be the last person giving economic advice.

  • Van Isle

    3 years ago

    The phoney money system is

    The phoney money system is falling apart and the Liberals are just lucky that the election is happening now instead of in the fall. Do I see protesting/demonstrations happening during the Olympics?

  • Luke Skywalker

    3 years ago

    Frank...

    Frank:

    Quote:
    Still always avoiding the article eh?

    Article:

    Quote:
    New StatsCan numbers likely mean bigger budget deficit or spending cuts: experts.

    Quote:
    Yet you call them "micro-hydro"?

    Actually the more centrist NDP in that late 1990's (Gordon Wilson, Ujjal Dosanjh), which approved around 17 of -'em IPP's, called them micro-hydro.

    Quote:
    2. "$400 million "gas flaring" tax"
    Which will do more to help the environment than the carbon tax.

    The most idiotic plank in the NDP's platform.

    Alberta has the "Otherwise Flared Solution Gas Royalty Waiver Program" (OFSG), which is intended to encourage the reduction of flared gas volumes by "waiving Crown royalties" NOT taxing 'em.

    In other words, Alberta waives royalties on flared gas as an incentive to make it economic to utilize otherwise flared gas within the system resulting in around a 70% reduction in flared natural gas over the past decade or so. Now that' environmentally friendly.

    The NDP's plank will just result in the SHUTDOWN of marginal producing wells and will also curtail drilling where flaring is part of the process. No $400 million in tax revenue will be generated there.

    That idiotic policy will have the opposite effect.

    You know, that part of the economy where ~$5 billion is INVESTED every year, where over $2 billion was brought in last year in land sale rights and where $billions$ flow into the provincial treasury every year as a result?

    Even with today's relatively low price in terms of $Cdn/GJ.

    Quote:
    And according to your numbers will provide $1.5 billion in tax relief, especially to the bottom half of the population.

    Hey, I'm all for tax reduction but the other side of the coin will BLOW a $1.5 billion hole in the provincial government budget over the next 3 years.

    Back to that article again. Based upon the foregoing the NDP will either have larger budget deficits or larger program spending cuts.

    1 + 1 does equal 2, ya know. ;)

  • Frank

    3 years ago

    Luke

    "Actually the more centrist NDP in that late 1990's, which approved around 17 of -'em IPP's, called them micro-hydro."

    Two things, first, did you just call the 1990's NDP "centrist" as opposed I assume to the left-wing radical Carole James?

    And second, the NDP MLA I heard on the radio the other day said that in fact the ones approved back in the 1990's really were "micro-hydro" and that the stuff being approved now were several orders of magnitude larger and not "micro" at all. He mentioned the Bute and Toba inlet projects as being definitely not "micro".

    "The NDP's plank will just result in the SHUTDOWN of marginal producing wells "

    For some reason you're actually convincing me even more here that the NDP idea is a good one.

    "Based upon the foregoing the NDP will either have larger budget deficits or larger program spending cuts."

    Yes. And that is the crux of the matter because the Liberals will make cuts to already severely cut social programs whereas the NDP will, I assume, run larger deficits.

    Most people in the world whether it be Obama, the IMF, Stephen Harper, Dalton McGuinty etc believe now is the time for budget deficits and not cuts to social programs.

  • Skywalker

    3 years ago

    Luke,

    I was wondering when you first comment on this article would appear. I did not think it would be on something as so very silly as a hamburger poll. You don't address the facts of Andrew's article, just the usual red herrings. We get it already.

  • Luke Skywalker

    3 years ago

    Quote:For some reason you're

    Quote:
    For some reason you're actually convincing me even more here that the NDP idea is a good one.

    That's like sayin' that your own personal revenue stream, be it social assistance, pension, investment income, etc. etc., should be shutdown.

    The same effect upon government revenue streams with current NDP policy planks.

    Silly, silly comment.

    Quote:
    the NDP will, I assume, run larger deficits.

    You got that right.

    Right out of the gate, the NDP, with their idiotic planks, will have ~$1 billion+ in larger annual deficits than the Libs with the same level of program spending.

    A real political winner. ;)

  • G West

    3 years ago

    wilful blindness

    How is it possible for you to suggest that the Campbell Tax - a rube goldberg money spinning exercise that is (according to the Gord) 'revenue neutral'?

    If it generates 1.5 billion dollars for the privy purse it cannot be 'revenue neutral'.

    As for deficits - get yourself ready because we're getting one anyway - anyone who believes that pile of steaming crap that Hansen introduced and which was never passed - will be anything like the budget that the Gord produces if, god forbid, he's re-elected in May...If you liked Minwac - you're going to love the new Gordo.

  • Frank

    3 years ago

    Luke

    "Silly, silly comment."

    Not at all, you said the NDP policy would have the effect of shutting down marginal wells. Well, that seems like an okay tradeoff to me. Perhaps I'm wrong but I don't see the point of keeping a marginal well going if it can't even pay the tax on flaring. Shutting it down would be good for the environment and be a minimal loss to the treasury.

    "Right out of the gate, the NDP, with their idiotic planks, will have ~$1 billion+ in larger annual deficits than the Libs with the same level of program spending."

    No problem, I'm sure the NDP will save oodles of money by no longer giving guaranteed contracts to private developers such as Run-of-River and P3s. The tens of billions that will be saved will more than make up for the loss of carbon tax and flaring revenue.

    "A real political winner."

    Strange, I was pretty sure you liked it when Obama did it. At least you said you did.

  • G West

    3 years ago

    Because

    One way or the other, somebody is lying through his teeth... would you be prepared to confirm that luke?

    Because I think it's pretty obvious who's lying now....and why such a perennial scofflaw doesn't deserve another moment at the helm of the ship of state....

  • Frank

    3 years ago

    GWest

    The reason is that the NDP promise to cancel the carbon tax but keep the offsetting tax cuts.

    "As for deficits - get yourself ready because we're getting one anyway "

    As jimmy-laroux points out, money owed to P3s should count the same as money owed to a bank.

  • Rod Smelser

    3 years ago

    The big question mark is residential construction

    For the past several years construction has been the leading sector in BC's expanding economy. However, its employment level peaked in the latter part of last year and has been falling since then.

    The question is how far it will go, and much of that depends on what happens with residential work. And that in turn becomes a function of sales and pricing. If the current price level is "sticky downwards" and is still above a long run, sustainable equilibrium, new construction will be very adversely affected. There's no point in a builder starting work on properties that were priced too high during the boom. If it looks like prices have stopped decreasing, it would make much more sense to proceed.

    Someone at the UBC Commerce department should be doing some work on price to rent ratios to determine where prices are rationally grounded and where there is still a speculative hangover from boom time hype and promotion. I don't think that every residential price in BC is above equilibrium by the same proportion, so some differential further adjustments are probably needed to bring stability, not to mention some increased affordability into the market.

    Government can help. Statements from the Premier and Finance and Housing Ministers to the effect that owning your own home is a valid part of the Canadian dream, and that means owning affordably on average wages and incomes, will help to set a better tone, one that's less promotional and avaricious. Ridiculous, airhead BS about The Best Place on Earth has the opposite effect, feeding the hype, underwriting the irrationality.

  • G West

    3 years ago

    Of course Frank - but Luke wants if both ways

    He wants to keep pretending that the revenue from the Gas tax 'means' something - in fact all it means is that the continuing saga of the rich sponging off the poor will continue if the Gord and his gang of scofflaws (Vaughn Palmer's term, remember?) are re-elected.

    The fact of the matter is that Campbell and crew couldn't care less about what happens to the poor, the young and the unemployed; the homeless, the sick and the working poor; the old, the infirm and the children in care.

    If he and his gang of reverse robin hoods would have behaved differently over the past 8 years.

    The proof is in the pudding and Campbell's pudding is a flop.

    Now that doesn't mean that a lot of blind and ignorant people won't vote for Campbell again - they'll join the guys Gordon gets his marching orders from and keep on voting against their own best interests...

  • Rod Smelser

    3 years ago

    Who on earth trains Liberal Bloggers?

    I am just wondering who on earth trains Liberal bloggers, and I am not just thinking of the B.C. Liberals here but the Federal Liberals as well. They seem to operate on the assumption that everyone's into the same insider games as them, selected and twisted quotes and factoids, labels that have no meaning, links to polling data, and so on.

    Today, one of them has even named some obscure Marxist author I have barely even heard of, and then suggested I just must be reading the guy's stuff! When that doesn't work, he says I should start reading the guy's stuff!! There might have been a time when this kind of junior high school BS was very au courrant, but I think it would have been about 1968 at the very latest.

    I would have assumed that Federal Liberal and therefore provincial Liberal Bloggers would have been hooked up to the US Democratic apparatus for instructions and the occasional bit of needed therapy. But as time passes their methods are looking more and more primitive and dated, more like the Hillary bloggers than the Obama ones.

    I wonder if that's that the answer, that Liberals have been trained by the declining old guard of the American Democratic Party?

  • frenchy mcswede

    3 years ago

    A RECAP OF THE GORDON USELESS

    ECONOMIC RECORD: IF REELECTED THE LIBERALS WILL RUN DEFICIT BUDGETS 5 YEARS OUT OF 9. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD REALLY BE 6 YEARS OUT OF 9, FOR THE 2005 BUDGET WAS ONLY "BALANCED" BY SELLING BC RAIL. THE BC LIBERALS HAVE RUN NOT ONLY THE MOST DEFICITS, BUT THE GREATEST DEFICITS AS WELL. DESPITE 3 YEARS OF RECORD REVENUE FROM HIGH COMMODITY PRICES AND THE NOW DEFUNCT HOUSING BOOM, DESPITE SELLING TERESEN GAS, DESPITE NOT FUNDING PROGRAMS AND MINISTRIES FOR 8 YEARS, AND DESPITE 2 YEARS OF RECORD TRANSFER PAYMENTS FROM OTTAWA, THE BC LIBERALS ARE NOW BROKE! THEY SHOULD BE SITTING ON AT LEAST A $2 BILLION SURPLUS.

    EVEN MAIN STREAM MEDIA COMMENTATORS LIKE VAUGHN PALMER AND CRAIG MCINNES HAVE STATED THAT NO NEW MANUFACTURING JOBS WERE CREATED IN BC UNDER THE LIBERALS(PALMER) AND THAT MEDIAN INCOMES HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR 5 YEARS (MCINNES).

    BC HAS BEEN LOSING JOBS SINCE LAST SUMMER AND NOW HAS THE FASTEST INCREASING EI NUMBERS IN THE COUNTRY, AND HAS LOST ONE THIRD AS MANY JOBS AS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST THREE MONTHS OF 2009 IN A ROW.

    BC SIMPLY CANNOT AFFORD ANY MORE OF MR CAMPBELL'S "ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT," WE'LL ALL NOT ONLY BE IN THE POOR HOUSE BUT SOCIAL BREAKDOWN WILL ACCELERATE TO THE LEVEL OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION...

  • North of Hope

    3 years ago

    Who on earth trains Liberal Blogger-2?

    Rod Smelser, "Who on earth trains Liberal Bloggers?"

    "I am just wondering who on earth trains Liberal bloggers, and I am not just thinking of the B.C. Liberals here but the Federal Liberals as well. They seem to operate on the assumption that everyone's into the same insider games as them, selected and twisted quotes and factoids, labels that have no meaning, links to polling data, and so on."

    Some of the BC Liberal "workers" have been trained by the US Republican party. They have been trained in media monitoring and flooding phone-ins. They learned attack ads, esp. ads saying their opponent is attacking them and catchy images, such as Campbell shovelling money off the back of a truck.
    All these tricks, and variations off them, are used in the BC Liberal campaign.

  • morechatter

    3 years ago

    BC wants to know where is the beef?

    Where have I heard that before? A great time to buy a over priced home? When you don't know if your going to have a job tomorrow?
    Apparently to some its the way to go and here I thought it was a way to go bankrupt or into foreclosure real quick. But what do I know when you have a Liberal promise you a new era. And how is that working for you? Or are you one of the many looking for a job that pays more than $8.00 an hour? Hard to find?
    Houses are not affordable and its foolish for anyone to buy into the madness as over priced homes are no deal they are a financial night mare.
    Or has no one figured that one out yet? Along with excessive credit as British Colombians are heavy users of tomorrows paychecks? So what happens when they lose their jobs???
    This province is in some serious trouble especially for the Rich now as the sirens are no longer just for the poor. As we can now sit back and wonder was it the poor slob on the street thats checked out or are those sirens blearing for the rich stiff who has lost it all. As the Rich finds the climate they helped create for the poor to much while they take the drop 20 floors down.
    And funny you should mention your hamburger polls as I'm certain in my eastside neighborhood the Liberals wouldn't even get mentioned.

  • morechatter

    3 years ago

    Good Point Rob S.

    Lets all give are heads a shake before we go out and mark are environment up for good and there is no going back. I guess its not just one thing to say you care as you listen to dribble but its a whole other thing to give it the time and thought it needs and research.
    But don't blame them so much as I was thinking today about the INTERNET and the news and the news you get in the daily papers.
    They are so different especially here in BC as often you would never know it was the same province. As Can west on line puts out the news more in line with whats been said on line.
    Where the local papers are more fluff and trivia and a fairy tale land of a wonderful leader who will save the economy along with the environment and her people.
    As we are not mushrooms despite the obvious efforts of both Campbell and his media entourage and his spin doctors who like to believe differently.

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