Why the NDP Has a Shot
BC Liberals hold more safe seats, but 'green suburban swingers' could lift New Dems into power.
Green suburban mom: steering the outcome?
The urban-rural fault lines that have defined British Columbia's political landscape for most of the past century have crumbled. On May 12, green-minded suburban voters are poised to pick B.C.'s next premier.
One in four of B.C.'s 85 new electoral districts are swing ridings. The majority of those 23 battlegrounds lie within the province's southern suburbs. So the heavy combat in next month's provincial election is likely to take place in otherwise bucolic 'burbs such as Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge and Saanich.
And in every one of the province's 23 statistical swing ridings (see list below), support for the Green Party of B.C. exceeds the narrow margin by which either the B.C. Liberal Party or the B.C. New Democratic Party would hope to win.
Numbering as few as 40,000 souls, these green suburban swingers represent less than one per cent of the province's 4.1 million residents, so their historically fickle affections won't be revealed in province-wide polls. And since their mainstream-minded neighbours outnumber them by 10-to-1, there's no chance they'll elect a Green Party candidate in their own ridings. But because these soy-sipping suburbanites are spread evenly across the province's new must-win swing ridings, B.C.'s next premier will in all likelihood be picked by a garden mom who stows reusable shopping bags in her high-mileage Prius.
Liberals have 33 safe seats
B.C.'s new electoral districts have provided the ruling B.C. Liberal Party with 33 safe seats, according to a review of data that considers how the 2005 vote would have played out in the 2009 ridings.
The Tyee identified 33 ridings the B.C. Liberals would win by a margin of 10 points or more, if the 2005 vote were to repeat. These include conservative strongholds such as West Vancouver, Richmond and the Peace River ridings.
Premier Gordon Campbell's party would win an additional 7 seats by moderately secure margins (between five and 10 points), and would carry another 8 swing ridings by slim margins (five points or less), according to this old-votes-in-new-wineskins analysis. Altogether, the 2005 vote would award the B.C. Liberals with 48 of the 85 new seats.
Carole James' B.C. NDP would win 18 safe seats (margins of 10 points or more), another four moderately secure seats (margins of between five and 10 points), and 15 swing seats; thus the 2005 vote would award 37 seats to the official opposition.
This backward-looking exercise should not be misconstrued as a prediction. But it does illustrate where many of the upcoming battles are likely to be fierce -- the 23 ridings with slim margins, plus a few more being hotly contested -- and where they will likely be quiet.
At the same time, it suggests that the B.C. Liberals are headed into this race with a formidable advantage. All Gordon Campbell has to do to return as premier is to carry his party's 33 safe seats and win ten more.
New swing ridings benefit NDP
Carole James, on the other hand, must carry all 18 of the NDP's safe seats plus an additional 29 swing seats if she is to become B.C.'s first elected woman premier.
As a result, the B.C. New Democratic Party will be forced to spread its limited resources across three times as many battlegrounds as the B.C. Liberals. This is particularly significant because both parties are subject to the same $5.5 million spending cap. (Though it's questionable whether either party will be able to raise the limit in this economy. More about that later this week on The Hook.)
The good news for the NDP is that the same redistricting that consolidated B.C. Liberal support into 33 ridings simultaneously diluted B.C. Liberal support in dozens of adjacent ridings. It is this systematic dispersion that has left B.C. with so many swing ridings this year; and it is this dispersion that gives the NDP a chance at winning.
Here's what the Dippers must do to take back B.C.:
First, the NDP must win all 18 of its safe ridings. These include left-leaning strongholds such as Vancouver-Mount Pleasant, Nelson-Creston, New Westminster and leader James' own Victoria-Beacon Hill. Likewise, NDP incumbents must win reelection in all four of the party's moderately secure ridings: Vancouver-West End, Burnaby-Edmonds, and Skeena. And New Dem candidate Mable Elmore will have to replace retiring NDP MLA David Chudnovsky in Vancouver-Kensington.
Second, all 12 NDP incumbents running in swing ridings must win reelection. The party cannot win a majority without retaking Vancouver-Fairview, Surrey-Fleetwood, Port Coquitlam, North Island, Nanaimo, Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, Fraser-Nicola, Delta North, Coquitlam-Maillardville, Cowichan Valley, and the Cariboos.
And finally, the party would have to win nine more swing ridings. Expect the NDP to fight hard in swing ridings such as: the Burnabys, Comox Valley, Kamloops-North Thompson, Kootenay East, Maple Ridge-Mission, the Saaniches, Stikine and Vancouver-Fraserview.
Suburban Swingers
By applying the 2005 vote to the new 2009 ridings, The Tyee identified 23 of the 85 new ridings that would have been be won by a margin of five points or less. The Green vote exceeded the margin of victory in each of these ridings.
Lower Mainland
Burnaby-Lougheed
Burnaby-North
Coquitlam-Maillardville
Delta North
Maple Ridge-Mission
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
Port Coquitlam
Surrey-Fleetwood
Vancouver-Fairview
Vancouver-Fraserview
Vancouver Island
Comox Valley
Cowichan Valley
Nanaimo
North Island
Oak-Bay Gordon Head
Saanich South
Interior
Boundary-Similkameen
Fraser Nicola
Kamloops-North Thompson
Kootenay East
North
Cariboo-Chilcotin
Cariboo North
Stikine
Is an NDP victory probable? No. Is it possible? Absolutely.
Indeed, if Liberal party leaders such as Premier Gordon Campbell and Attorney General Wally Oppal are forced to run in the shadows in order to avoid answering questions about the B.C. Rail deal, this could be the Dipper's best chance to retake Victoria in more than a decade.
Suburban greens hold the key
The Green Party of B.C. do not have a safe or even a probable riding anywhere in the province. Their most promising candidate is Damian Kettlewell, who will surely nettle B.C. Liberal plans to dominate the province's new condo capital, Vancouver-False Creek. Party leader Jane Sterk is expected to rattle the NDP in her home riding of Esquimalt-Royal Roads. And green candidates have historically done well in the B.C. Liberal stronghold of West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, as well as the NDP-dominated Powell River-Sunshine Coast.
But there is no statistical basis to believe that a Green candidate could win any of this year's 23 swing ridings. The party attracted less than 10 per cent of the 2005 vote in these mostly suburban and exurban electoral districts. That's not even enough to show up in province-wide polls.
Nonetheless, according to The Tyee's interpretation of the 2005 vote, the Greens' single-digit support exceeded the narrow margin by which either the B.C. Liberals or the NDP would have won each of those 23 ridings. As a result, these widely spread green-leaning suburbanites are the swing voters who could tip either leading party into power.
If they rally behind Premier Campbell's vociferous support for North America's first carbon tax, these suburban green voters could deliver the B.C. Liberals a victory comparable to the 2001 landslide. Votes cast for Green Party candidates in these 23 ridings will have much the same effect.
Conversely, if suburban green voters were to support NDP candidates in as few as a dozen Liberal-leaning swing ridings, they could propel Carole James to the premier's office.
With a week to go before the writ is dropped, all that's clear is that the NDP will have to fight a two-front war in these battleground ridings, while the B.C. Liberals will not. For while the B.C. Conservative Party has nominated candidates in only two of the 23 swing statistical ridings, the Greens already have candidates running in more than half of this year's battlegrounds.
Whether or not the Greens will run candidates in the remaining swing ridings remains to be seen. Green leader Jane Sterk told The Tyee that her party has another 15 candidates "in play," and that there are two more ridings on a "deep search" for someone local. Intriguingly, the Green Party's most direct influence on the outcome of this election may come not on May 12, but in the course of the pending decision whether or not to run no-hope candidates in the remaining suburban swing ridings.
On Tuesday: Six BC Liberal ridings the NDP must take to win. Wednesday: Six NDP ridings the BC Liberals will target.
Related Tyee stories:
- NDP's Billion Dollar Idea to Green BC's Economy
Wary support from some enviros. Too risky say Libs. - NDP Takes Heat on Global Warming
Stance against carbon tax steams BC enviros. - Mair: May Contest Is NDP's to Win
Eight issues pecking away at Campbell's re-election chances.




de Falla
03-04-2009
Mable Elmore
There is no NDP incumbent for Vancouver-Kensington.
Right! We will fix that. Thanks. Tyee Editor
thu
03-04-2009
A disaster waiting to happen.
Buddah help us if Carole James with her merry band of union bosses and thugs get into power. All they know how to do is go on strike and give themselves pay raises. They don't give a rat's ass about anyone else.
Frank
03-04-2009
Bang on
thu's right, we have the highest child poverty in Canada, that kind of honour doesn't just happen, you need a leader that knows how to do it and only Gordon Campbell has demonstrated that ability.
God knows if the NDP ran this province they'd raise the minimum wage and we just can't allow that.
Therefore, to maintain the highest child poverty rate we have to re-elect Gordon Campbell and all of his stick-it-to-the-worker friends.
Campbellwearsatutu
03-04-2009
Frank,you have to watch this interview
Have you watched the Ming-yung Lee interview with Gordon Campbell on child poverty?
It`s a CLASSIC,watch Campbell bob and weave and squirm,watch him demonsrate obstinate denial.
Click the Interview on the right hand side of the page in this link/the video files
http://www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20090330/BC_Shame_Hub_090330/20090330/?hub=BritishColumbiaHome
seth
03-04-2009
wilf and pirates
The author misses the influence that Liberal party's massive Government waste, corruption,influence peddling, green taxes and native giveaways will have on either keeping the true conservative voter who would never vote NDP home or to send his vote to Wilf Hurd.
The green and cons did tie in the last byelections.
The NDP needs to woo the green voter pointing out the Greenies tacit support for pirate power and the wasted vote factor reelecting Mr Brown himself Gordo "the Ogre" Campbell. The Ogre once reelected will proceed to destroy multiple salmon runs and BC rivers and leave hundreds of thousands of BC kids in poverty - the worst record in Canada.
The average cost of pirate power over the 40 or so years of the contracts is almost 12 cents a kwh. Given projected nuclear costs of 2 cents, solar boiler at 3, wind at 5, and ten years down the road pulse nuclear at .5 there is very little possibility that the current 5 cent average export rate is going up. We are talking tens of billion of dollars in wasted taxpayer money, making the fast ferry debacle look like a rainy day at a charity garage sale.
In fact the California sales at a premium rate that the Rubes in Victoria thought they'd be getting, was just shot down by the California senate ruling that pirate power was not renewable. Buy at 12 sell at what 3 cents - makes sense only to a neocon.
Gordo and his gang are the most incompetent financial managers in Canadian history and NDP can make huge waves by telling the BC voter about in no uncertain terms.
bontano
03-04-2009
Green vote can't be counted on to go NDP
There's a problems with anticipating that Green Party supporters will strategically switch to the NDP:
Green Party voters are not necessarily leftists, even as liberally as that is defined these days. They have seen little from the NDP (historically or in plausible policy proposals) that suggests that the NDP will, if elected, provide a seriously green government.
More likely, the NDP will continue to lack courage and adhere to anti-green policies in order to avoid alienating their labour supporters, just as the Liberals don't want to anger their corporate supporters. Blame the electoral system if you like, but Greens have little confidence in the NDP.
Some portion of the Greens is made up of Liberals, and some of NDPers (if you want to stick to a polarised model). While the portion that leans NDP may jump in the interests of strategy, it probably wouldn't be enough to propel James into the Premier's chair, even if the Green Liberals don't go back to Campbell.
If James wants Green support, she's going to have to come up with a much more aggressively green platform.
I'm almost inclined to think that a Liberal premier with at least some green tendencies might provide more positive environmental progress by selling it to his corporate friends, than the NDP is likely to come up with.
Frank
03-04-2009
bontano
This line intrigued me :
"I'm almost inclined to think that a Liberal premier with at least some green tendencies might provide more positive environmental progress by selling it to his corporate friends, than the NDP is likely to come up with."
We don't have to speculate, we have 8 years of evidence. The same guy is still Liberal leader after all. So what's the verdict? Is the environment better now than it was in 2001?
carfreed
03-04-2009
greens need to surrender
I support the Greens but I WILL NOT vote Green this election. The Libs must be defeated.
In the Federal election we ended up with a Harper government.
I don't like strategic voting but it must be done.
If the NDP wins, the next round can include Greens.
If there was a riding where the Greens were sure to win, well, then by all means, vote Green. If not, it has to be NDP or whoever can defeat a Liberal.
Campbellwearsatutu
03-04-2009
The Greens
WesternCanada Wildlife Committee national campaign director, Joe Foy states --"There is nothing green about large RUN of RIVER"
He goes on to say that the "California senate agrees with them that these projects are not green,and the only one`s in the province that believes these projects are the BC goverment"
A bi-partisan committee has ruled (liberals and NDP) that open net fish farms are killing off our wild salmon,but Campbell does nothing!
Cutting a 8 lane highway through burns bog/Delta port expansion/bridge and highway expansion/1000s of hecters removed from the ALR.....
Even Suzuki has turned on Campbell,the only supporters Campbell has left on the green file is Jaccard and Weaver,and both of them are on the payrole!
Read what Joe Foy has to say here in this link.......
http://www.vancouversun.com/Technology/California+rejects+green+power+claims/1453593/story.html
So any green worth their salt know Campbell isn`t green,don`t get me started on the destruction of the flathead valley and the billions of dollars worth of dirty coal going to China!
Campbellwearsatutu
03-04-2009
Why the NDP are going to win the election!
#1...nobody who voted for the NDP in 2005 are going to switch to Campbell.
#2...All the same issues exist today as in 2005 plus a whole lot more,fish farms/gas tax/massive pay raise/poverty/seniors/BC Rail/broken promises ect ect ect
#3...Deficit budgets/cost over runs/scathing reports from auditor generals and others/illegal land giveaways/Run of River/bill 30/gag law/
#4...Wally Oppal/ken Dobell/John Les/Rich Coleman/Kevin Falcon/shirley Bond/olympic costs(lies)
#5...ferry fares/transit fares/ICBC rates/BC Hydro rates/carbon tax is going up/liquour up/park fees/unemployment/raw logs/off shore oil n gas
There are so many issues and......Wilf Hanni,a place for the conservative vote,there are issues in every town......
South Delta(many items)--Burnaby(prisons)--Surrey(hospitals)kooteneys(run of river)-Vancouver island (forest/raw logs/fish farms/hydro rates/ferry fares)
Maple ridge(albion ferry/ROR/Upper Pitt)
Coquitlam(more Evergreen line lies)
Seniors all over this province are in disgust with seniors care privitization,insulin pumps for kids/funding for the autistic thats been cut/private jet to Bejiing--Jessicca MacDonald and her raise bringing her salary to 348.000.00$ a year,anf finally..
Patrick Kinsella and the premiers office!
Add it all up and this election is over/the lid is about to pop on Campbell campaign.
Cheers, NDP 50 seats,,,Liberals 34 seats.1 independent
Fiat lux
03-04-2009
As a dedicated private
As a dedicated private enterpriser,never a union member, it always amuses me to hear the perennial whining about "union bosses" etc. but never any complaints about the deregulation, collectivization gangs of big business, like the Bilderbergers, the Trilaterals, or various Business Councils, and the banks, with the multimillion dollar yearly takings by their executives.
The top 100 Canadian executives took home over $10. million each last year, which is also taxation without representation, coming out of the public's pocket, while conspiring of how to fire, or employ more at minimum wage part time jobs.
These are the people who have caused the present slide into depression, ruining the lives of billions, all over the world.
Where are the complaints against this gang of thieves, who now control the world's economy, ruining producers while raising prices in the stores ?
Ed Deak.
Grumpy
03-04-2009
As much as I would like the NDP to win.......
......Carole James, the incompetent, leaves me cold. The NDP is a party of extreme racists and sexists, forbidding white males to run in many ridings. This is sheer lunacy and shows the NDP are totally and completely incompetent.
That being said, the Campbell Liberals are the most autocratic, corrupt party BC has seen and to vote for them is like voting for good old boy Adolf H.
Luckily I live in south Delta and will vote for a strong independent.
Message to the NDP and Liberals - A POX ON BOTH YOUR HOUSES!
Rod Smelser
03-04-2009
The Liberal Environmental Strategy
Grumpy
......Carole James, the incompetent, leaves me cold.
"People who live in glass houses ... "
The article highlights the role of environmental voters. Over the past four years BC's best known and best financed environmental NGOs have placed hard and unrelenting pressure on the BC NDP to do two things:
1)Support an unpopular BC Liberal Govt policy, mainly, the carbon tax.
2)Oppose a popular BC Liberal Govt policy, mainly, expanding the highway, freeway and bridge system.
These two things need to be considered in light of a third development, the caustic, churlish, insincere denunciations of Carol James and Jack Layton that have appeared in op-ed pieces and in letters to the editor and speechs by environmental scientists and economists. Carol James has been called "dishonest" for not supporting the carbon tax. At one point, a leading environmental Elmer Gantry type said publicly that he's "ashamed" of her, a theme he apparently returned to this week at a posh downtown hotel in the middle of what purported to be a news conference on the subject of global warming and the Winter Olympics.
Meanwhile, these same environmental leaders have become visibly more friendly with Premier Campbell and members of his Cabinet. At times, the peans of praise have suffered a little from being too obviously obsequious, but that hasn't stopped some pundits from reporting it to voters as if it were the real McKoy.
Adding together points one and two with the extreme anti-NDP trash-talking and you're not looking at some accident or coincidence. You're looking at the end product of a very tightly conceived Liberal strategy that's been running since May of 2005.
The big question is, if the Liberals are re-elected on May 12th, what will the ENGOs and their leaders receive in return for four years of absolutely maximal cooperation in executing the Liberal's electoral strategies?
frenchy mcswede
03-04-2009
I find paulson's analysis somewhat
simplistic, although I generally like his writing efforts.
First, ndp support has a much higher percentage of firmly decided voters than bc liberal support, surely this will effect the next election, as will soft greens switching votes to get rid of campbell, especially those capable of evaluating the dreadful effects of the liberals environmental policies.
Second, while they will hardly be the vote splitters that the greens are, some pundits are predicting that the bc conservatives could easily cost campbell a few interior ridings, for the liberals have enraged many of their conservative supporters with the gas tax, and with new talk of native accomodating treaties, even though, like the greens, they will not actually elect anyone.
Third, the bc rail scandal, and other scandals are going to have SOME effect, and the effect does not have to that great, considering that at least 8 bc ridings were won last election by no more that 5000 votes spread over these ridings.
Therefore to cite green support as THE major factor in the electoral outcome strike me as an over-simplification.
frenchy mcswede
03-04-2009
To win the election for sure the ndp should
do the following: Stop being so nice and mount aggresive attack ads on the bc liberal's dreadful handling of the economy, ie. they're FLAT BROKE after 3 years of record revenue from high commodity prices, after 3 years of record equalization payments, and 8 years of under funding both social programs and government ministries. They should have at least a 2 billion dollar surplus. If reelected the liberals will run deficits 5 years out of 9 (Really should be 6 years out of 9, because without selling bc rail just before the 2005 election they would have had a billion dollar deficit) and ran the highest bc deficit ever in 2003. BC has been losing jobs for over a year, well before the current economic meltdown, lost more jobs last january than one third of the rest of canada combined and now has the fastest growing employment insurance rolls in the country. Columns by craig mcinnes and vaughn palmer respectively showed that bc median incomes have been going down since 2005, and that not one new manufacturing job in bc has been created under the liberals.
It is obvious by mike de jongs and the premier's desperate mantra of running on being the best economic managers, despite the glaring contradictions just cited, that the liberals are once again counting on the ndp's giving them a free pass on the economy, as they did in the 2005 election, when the bc liberals were losing full time good paying jobs by the bushel full, replaced by low wage, part time, no benefits jobs. The ndp could have won in 2005 on this issue alone, as close the election was. And once again, in this election, with over 5 million coming from the likes of phil hochstein over bs like the "lost decade of the nineties," the ndp should run counter attack ads, the economy unfortuneately being an ace that trumps all other issues. The ndp don't even have to defend their record; all they have to is attack campbell's using the points listed above. This strategy could easily add 5 to 10% support in a close election -surely the ndp can afford 5 to 10% of their campaign budget on this ultimate ace and lever -the economy.
Finally, the ndp should run attack ads on the perils faced by renters, who are at least 50% of the population, regarding renoviction and other loopholes, like raising rents because of higher rents for similar properties in the same neighbourhood, citing evictions in the west end, kitsilano, victoria, and commercial drive. One good attack ad on this issue could generate LOTS of support. I am all for social justice issues, but elections are seldom won on them. The ndp needs an appeal to selfishness as well as to people's better instincts to win this election.
JStog
04-04-2009
NDP Jumping ship
Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson is emerging as a possible surprise booster of none other than Gordon Campbell
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20090403.BCNOTEBOOK03ART2202/TPStory//BritishColumbia/
The NDP's ship is sinking.
Tieleman
04-04-2009
Good analysis, big challenge for BC NDP - and Greens
Monte Paulsen has provided an excellent analysis of the challenges facing the BC NDP - and the Green Party and its supporters.
This election is an opportunity to throw out of office the most environmentally-destructive government BC has ever seen.
If only to stop Campbell's continuing plans for offshore oil and gas drilling and his reckless fish farming industry policies, environmental and green voters should place their ballots with the NDP.
The environmental groups who have shamelessly backed the Gordon Campbell government's initiatives, particularly the unfair carbon tax, will not only have a lot to answer for if the BC Liberals are re-elected - they will likely watch as Campbell once again rips the environment six ways from Sunday.
And Green Party supporters - who have every right to vote as they choose, of course - will also have cause to regret their choices if Campbell is re-elected thanks to their voting for a party that once again can't win a single seat in nearly 30 years of trying.
Bill Tieleman - http://billtieleman.blogspot.com/
DPL
04-04-2009
I suggest folks read the
I suggest folks read the Globe and Mail BC section today( Saturday) beofre telling us what a great team King Gordo has. Articles
Kinsella:Political meddling:Why the refusal to talk about BC Rail. I won't mention the slight overrun cost for the Convention Center of over 400 millions.Child poverty, the refusal to raise the minimum wage, a ex Soliciter General under investigation for getting land out of the ALR, and who figures he should run again, other wise people might think he is crooked. Gordo has done a lot of damage in BC. Can the province afford to keep him around is the question of the day
Skywalker
04-04-2009
Grumpy and the Dion factor.
Call it the Dion factor but the NDP would be a shoo-in if it was not for Carole James. That is the common sentiment where I spend most of my time discussing political issues. Fortunately or unfortunately for me the NDP candidate is a deadbeat and I would be better off not voting at all. I just can't bring myself to vote for Gordon and the other choice is not an option.
Rod Smelser
04-04-2009
Is Robertson personally contemptuous of James?
JStog
Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson is emerging as a possible surprise booster of none other than Gordon Campbell
I wonder if Robertson is one of those people who is personally contemptuous of Carol James because she's not from Vancouver, isn't connected to that city's upper income crowd, and doesn't have a university degree?
Skywalker
04-04-2009
To JStog
Part of the problem Carole James has is that she surrounded herself with people who really were not all that progressive. As Rafe Maier has said the NDP today is more like the Socreds under WAC. That is really a stretch when it comes to some social issues but the truth is that the NDP has been watered down. For many, in this ultra right wing Campbell climate, that is tragic. Many of us have nothing but contempt for the liberals under Campbell as the polls show repeatedly but we see the NDP try to become popular at the expense of making real change.
So I doubt that Gregor was ever a real New Democrat; maybe a misguided Green who saw the NDP as a way of achieving publicity for his political ambitions as the Greens were not going anywhere. The NDP under James were naive enough not to screen their candidates properly. I guess it was fallout form the Ujjal days. There are still too many Ujjalites in positions of influence in the NDP operation today just as there are too many opportunistic, lackluster candidates.
James is infinitely better than Campbell in integrity. That does not necessarily mean she will attract the votes.
Rod Smelser
04-04-2009
Bill: Don't expect them to be ashamed
Bill Tieleman
The environmental groups who have shamelessly backed the Gordon Campbell government's initiatives, particularly the unfair carbon tax, will not only have a lot to answer for if the BC Liberals are re-elected - they will likely watch as Campbell once again rips the environment six ways from Sunday.
Bill, please don't expect the WestSide ENGOs who slobbered on the floor over the carbon tax to be ashamed of anything or embarassed or the least bit worried about any outcomes. These people didn't come to Campbell's and Dion/Ignatieff's side by accident or mistake, it's a joint Liberal-ENGO strategy that's been going on since at least 2006.
A good deal of it actually originates at the federal level where environmental leaders bought the Liberal line that Layton elected Harper. And some of the very top environmental leaders were damned angry that Layton and Nathan Cullen didn't follow orders on environmental issues closely enough, and didn't show the proper respect and deference to the ENGO chieftains.
The real work after May 12th, if the Liberals win, will be to trace the rewards back to the ENGOs, not just their staff members which will be obvious enough, but to their donors which will involve a lot more tedious digging. Regardless of the result on May 12th, someone needs to start profiling the donor base of the ENGOs and doing some investigative work around pay and perks for their staff. ENGOs who now routinely hold their press conferences at the most expensive hotels in the city are no longer on the outside looking in, they have become part of the government/industrial network of lobbyists and politically self-interested players. They are not in it for their health.
Van Isle
04-04-2009
When Gregor Robertson ran
When Gregor Robertson ran for the mayor's job he was just manouvering for the big one; Premier. Just you wait, give it 4 or 8 years, he'll be there. And the thing is he could swing NDP or Liberal. Both the Liberals and the NDP are extremely fragile, especially the Liberals cuz they don't have anyone coming up through the ranks to fill Gordo's shoes, he's the glue that holds those bunch of bandits together. I think Carole Taylor saw the rot and stench when she was in cabinet and didn't want any part of it, that's why she was a 1 trick pony. My bet; Gregor is going for the Liberals but Gordo will step aside gracefully ("spend more time with Nancy and the grandchildren") and Gregor will just waltz in gracefully.
Patiently Waiting
04-04-2009
Not enjoying my choices
Carole James leaves me cold too. Her "equity mandate" leaves me re-considering my support for the NDP. It appears she is stuck in the 80s and the anti-male extreme feminist agenda. The NDP will have weaker candidates when it restricts who can run.
Most people I know are dippers and from what I hear, there isn't much cheering for "the party" this time. I know volunteers don't matter like they used to, but a party like the NDP needs some people to do the foot-work. These folks are less common these days, and I don't see them coming out this election. Not even the NDP base is motivated right now.
Myself, I won't go near my local NDP campaign office this time. I'd like to vote Green, but I'll take the time to seriously consider the consequences as I live in a swing district. For now, I'm undecided.
Frank
04-04-2009
Rod Smelser
Rod, would it be fair to say Carol James is from your end of the NDP whereas some of us you might consider "extreme" will be voting for her because she's not as bad as Campbell?
Bailey
04-04-2009
strategic withdrawal
I wish to God the Green Party would pick a perch and light on it.
As an independent party they are a gift to the enemy of all they claim to stand for.
As long as they continue to compete with the official opposition they ensure absolutely that no progress can ever be made in pursuing their own most cherished goals.
In acting as the splitter they assure that, just to name a few, salmon stocks will continue to be driven to extinction, that greenhouse gas emissions will continue to climb, that local agricultural land will continue to be rededicated to the uses of developers, that no regulations will ever be placed on mining or logging. This is another of those lists too long to put in a 3000 word post.
It escapes me why they insist on keeping this role, against their own stated interests. Unless their actual purposes are for some reason not as stated. That conclusion is becoming difficult to avoid, as unreasonable and unlikely as it really ought to be.
politico
04-04-2009
The title should read why the NDP HAD a shot
On the same day the Tyee runs this story Gregor Robertson launches his 2013 bid for premier by distancing himself from the NDP and half endorsing Campbell.
Why the piece should be retitled is based on its reasoning the very vote Gregor apparently delivers is the vote that will make the difference therefor his endorsement of Campbell suggests that if this analysis is accurate then this move just buried the NDP's chances.
As for Smelser and his tendency to lay blame on under resourced, poorly organized, politically challenged ENGO's, he should be taking a peak around his own tent to discover the real reason the NDP will remain in opposition in BC and relegated to the vast Wilderness of Canada's political hinterland at the Federal level.
Fiat lux
04-04-2009
The only important strategic
The only important strategic voting should be to get rid of the BCLibs at any cost.
If they get another 4 years of mandate, there won't be anything left of BC.
They'll follow the long standing policies of the Fraser Inst. and sell off all the lands, forests, rivers and lakes for total exploitation, preferably to foreign owners, so the sellouts will be irreversible, protected by the NAFTA and the WTO gangsters.
Ed Deak.
brg61
04-04-2009
How green is Campbell?
For each step he makes to improve our environment, Campbell takes another
back.
Green voters should consider his record
carefully.
His gleeful statement that the Canada
line prevents emissions equal to a ten lane
freeway is good news. But those ten lanes
he detests are being built with the Port
Mann bridge project.
His government has ignored mounting evidence of the damage that fish farms
cause to pacific salmon.
He continues to allow raw logs exports.
There are many occasions where local
environmental issues lost out to cheaper
or faster arguements including West
Vancouver's tunnel and Delta's trans-
mission lines.
He loves to claim the high ground; does
his record after eight years allow him?
realisticman
04-04-2009
Robertson cheers for Campbell
Could Gregor really take a run at the NDP leadership? After all, he's merely a male. Would that be acceptable?
I'm told (confidentially) that there are few passionate male NDP supporters that are considering quick sex-change looping-off-the-dick operations, so they can run in a few key ridings under the female-only rule.
Does this give a bad name to:
a) Transvestites and besmirching their integrity.
b) Power-hungry men who just will not relinquish control.
c) Women, and the lack of engaged ones qualified to run.
d) The NDP and being fixated on genitalia.
Dan the socialist
04-04-2009
Skywalker 10 hours ago Call
Skywalker
10 hours ago
Call it the Dion factor but the NDP would be a shoo-in if it was not for Carole James.
------------------
I agree and as a life long NDP member I am having trouble trying to convince myself to vote for the NDP with Carole James at the helm, she does not inspire confidence at all.
Someone like Corky Evans, Joy McPhail, Libby Davis would be a lot better or someone like 'Jack Layton'..
Carole James comes across very bad and sounds more like a whiner and offers very little solutions. That affirmative action was not a good thing either.
So I will just vote Indy and if not one just spoil my ballot.
Campbellwearsatutu
04-04-2009
Gregor
He`s just buttering both sides of the bread,he is not sure just yet which way the flag is blowing.
wcullen
04-04-2009
What to do, what to do...
I have to commiserate with everyone stuck in who to vote for. I've voted NDP all my life, but I did so, after Broadbent brought in Mulroney, hesitatingly. After Layton brought down Martin and, thus, in Harper, I was even more disillusioned.
When I lived back East I could get over voting for the party head, who I didn't like (Broadbent and Layton) because I DID like my local NDP (and eventual NDP leader) Alexa McDonough. Now that I live out west, however, I have Carole James someone I've seen no reason to either trust to lead or to respect.
I'm not going to jump on a band-wagon of bashing James, its not about that. It is about the fact that I've seen some very digressive attitudes that highlight an ideological undercurrent I am not comfortable with.
I recently had an exchange with Brenton Walters (the Policy and Correspondence Coord) over her ridiculous and ignorant position regarding Mabel Elmore's 'zionist' comments. The fact that they defended her actions was bad enough, but that he defended them with out of hand disregard for the effect that they could have (chilling legitimate discourse) was only over shadowed by the ignorance of what zionism is (by definition, I mean).
I have absolutely no time for Gordon Campbell, but if I have to vote strategically federally, I am more interested, admittedly, in Ignatieff than Layton. If I have to vote here in my new provincial home I am at a total loss as I have little time for James either.
Now if Jenny Kwan was the leader...
Habby
04-04-2009
Green I am
I'm one of the swing voters. I use to vote ndp but in 2001, although I voted for my party and my party got 43% of the vote, we only got 2 seats. I realized that something is very wrong. Now I fully support the STV voting system and because my ex party, ndp, choses to still support the first past the post system I now support the Green Party of BC. If we want a fair and just government and not a 5 year dictatorship then I see no other answer, at this point.
VF
04-04-2009
Support BC STV then
We have a historic opportunity to end 'vote splitting' this election and put an end to the complaints about how the BC Green Party steals votes. Rather than raging about how the green party has no right to exist, realize that the problem can be fixed this election.
For what it's worth I live in one of these swing ridings and will be supporting the green party. And I'd vote liberal before I'd vote NDP this election (even though I voted NDP last election) because I'm sick of listening to Carol James whine about how unfair the carbon tax is as she drives around in her SUV. No, not having a carbon tax is unfair to those of us that don't drive. If you pollute, pay your share of it.
Frank
04-04-2009
wcullen
Layton didn't bring down Martin. That is just a Liberal spin to cover up for their own problems.
The facts are that even with NDP support Martin didn't have the votes to stay in power so he told the NDP to take a hike.
As for Broadbent, I have no idea why he was to blame for Mulroney.
And as for Harper, Ignatieff prefers to support the Tories rather than join with the NDP in a Coalition. Harper would not be in power today if Iggy didn't want him to be.
ME2
05-04-2009
Time to get off your potties and think like adults
It is long past time for Lefties to stop bickering about Carol James. .She is the chosen Leader, who is about to lead the Party into an election.
If you don't want another 4 years of Gordo, hold your nose if you must, but fully support James. You have no other option.
And then, as others have suggested, vote for STV.
frenchy mcswede
05-04-2009
I find all this endless whining about carol
james and affirmative action rather silly. It's not as if she's asking every incumbent male ndp mla to step down. What is happening is that a few more women will get a chance to become ndp mlas Even though I believe the ndp will win the election, the number of new seats held by women but barred to men will be small indeed. And even smaller next to the multiple sins of gordon campbell against which the environment is only one of many.
As to the gregor robertson factor, all this supposede closeness to campbell is merely people like miro certernig stealth politicking on campbell's behalf. What was gregor robertson supposed to say the truth, that campbell's a back stabbing liar? After all, he may have to work with him. And the idea of robertson running for the bc liberals is laughable. He'd shoot himself and them in the foot at the same time.
alive
05-04-2009
Gender politics
Look frenchy mcswede, the NDP needs every help it can get!
To arbitrarily prevent even one good potential candidate from the list, give the members fewer choices, and in the end the voters no choice but to vote for a female or not vote for the party.
You may be very openminded, but why dismiss a vote that otherwise would be ours?
Like it or not, for some people it is a matter of principle that equality is guaranteed!
Try to imagine if females were disallowed in any election in any organization?
It is a basic principle in a democratic state, that any member of a party may take a run at nomination meetings, it is for the members to decide who will be choosen!
If females are not represented as often, then look at the cause: maybe they are not prepared to make the sacrifices? maybe they are not motivated?
No female has ever been told not to make herself available, so why is the opposite OK?
Fiat lux
05-04-2009
3 years ago I had the
3 years ago I had the opportunity to meet and have a chat with Carole James.
I found her highly intelligent and open minded and have no qualms about her capacity to do a better job than the present government.
My problem is with her advisers and backroom leadership, who are still stuck on the neoclassical theory of "competition" and "exports", instead of developing a sustainable, self sufficient economic system.
Another problem is extortion and blackmail by big business, threatening us with all kinds of repercussions if we dare to elect an NDP government, and who will definitely do their best to ruin BC, so they can say "We told you so!".
In any case, any government would be better than the present gang of ideologically warped thieves and destroyers, working on their post politics directorships. Mulroney's success with directorships is definitely not lost on them and they know who has the deepest pockets. How about CN to start with? Or would that be too obvious ?
Ed Deak.
kootenay
05-04-2009
Get our of Your Chair and Fight
The poster’s who say they won’t vote for the NDP because they don’t like Carol James, give your head a shake! Surely you’re smart enough to realize that a vote for the Green Party or an Independent candidate will only ensure the Liberals are re-elected.
Hasn’t the past 8 years of neo-liberal politics provided undisputed evidence that the Liberals will continue to sell/give away our resources to private corporations, with no regard for the consequences to the people of this province? If it hasn’t, where the hell have you been? Don’t post here telling me you support left wing ideals when you are willing to aid in the re-election of Gordon Campbell.
The NDP isn’t perfect and neither is Carole James, and nor are you or I. However, I’d sooner vote for the NDP and try to put a stop to this mean spirited government that is running our province into the ground. Change isn’t achieved by people bitching from their arm chair, it’s achieved by people who get off their asses, get involved in their party, and fight for the change they believe in! I know its hard to believe, but the perfect politician isn’t going to knock on your door and enlighten you, its up to us to enlighten them. Power to the People!
Skywalker
05-04-2009
Equality guaranteed?.
It is this kind of argument that I find objectionable, "Like it or not, for some people it is a matter of principle that equality is guaranteed!". The NDP has never in all the years that I have been a member, and they are many, excluded women from working, running for office, becoming the candidate etc. That suggestion is a myth. If you have to force men to step aside because you have decided you want more women you are misguided. That Carole agrees with this is a sign of weakness. Ed's concern about the leadership behind her, in my view, goes more to them being in control of the agenda more than Carole. These are the same bunch that gave us Ujjal and they still have not learned their lessons.
But I could overlook that and vote NDP if the local candidate was worth a vote. Simply voting for the NDP because they are not "Campbell" means nothing will change, EVER. That is a prospect I find difficult to accept. I really don't need more liberal Light MLA's in Victoria. I'd vote for a good NDP candidate even now but when you have an incomptent incumbent NDP MLA asking for another vote is too much. The NDP will have to do it without my vote this time.
It isn't about holding my nose and voting either. I could do that up to a point. This is beyond how much of an endorsement I am prepared to give to this Liberal light brand of NDP.
Worrywart
05-04-2009
BC Hydro
The NDP have the opportunity to win this election on the BC Hydro issue alone. All they have to do is explain to the people of this province what Campbell and the Fraser Institute advisors are doing to BC Hydro. Carole James should have rented a hall in every town in the province and initiated a "full court press" explaining the sell off of our most precious resource.
The sell off of BC Hydro is the crime of the century, and Campbell is a liar. That would be my platform.
southdeltawalker
05-04-2009
Save B C Hydro-Protect Our Rivers.
I agree the limiting of B C Hydro to not being able to develop new power and the so called "run of rivers" independent power projects could be the issue that defeats the Liberals.
We need to get the word to as many in B C as possible.
Rafe Mair former Minister of The Environment and others are currently touring the Province as part of the "Rivers at Risk" tour.
Lots of great info. at Save Our Rivers site: http://saveourrivers.ca/
If you happen to live out Delta way. The Rivers At Risk tour featuring Rafe and others will be at:
Ladner Community Centre
4734 51 St
Friday Apr 17 7-9 pm
Hope to see you there.
rstillwell
05-04-2009
Gregor Robertson Should Have His Membership Revoked
I worked on Gregor's election campaign for Vision last November and I'm appalled at his statements last week. Firstly, he goes against NDP policy and endorses the carbon tax right before the election to embarrass the party. But what really has got into my gut is that RIGHT before the BC election, he apparently enthusastically endorses Gordo -
And then Palmer in the Vancouver Sun has this headline -
And the straw that broke the camel's back from the Georgia Straight -
I'm so upset it all what's to make me upchuck.Head office should revoke Robertson's NDP membership NOW!
JStog
05-04-2009
Gender Politics are not the future
Gregor goes where the $green$ money is.
http://www.vancouversun.com/Technology/Gordon+Campbell+best+friend+Gregor+raises+political+eyebrows/1464108/story.html
Carol James can't possibly win, she offers nothing refreshing or new.
Rod Smelser
I wonder if Robertson is one of those people who is personally contemptuous of Carol James...
I wonder if Carol James pushed Gregor Robertson out by her anti-male agenda? Isn't he excluded from running again? Gender Equality under Carol James clearly is gone.
Then there's the BC NDP's wonderful past.
No they don't resemble the Socreds at all. The Socreds developed long term growth plans for the province. The BC NDP dismantled alot of it.
The Mud slinging campaigns are heating up.
PatrickMcEvoyHalston
05-04-2009
Surely someone who supports
Surely someone who supports the Greens should speak up here. Certainly the argument that a split vote between Nader and the Democrats cost the world a million lives, is a dubious one. I'm not the only one who has argued that if Gore had gotten in he would have followed the crowd's demands--and it wanted righteous war against someone. Same thing is probably true in B.C.: that is, it isn't so much who gets in, but what most B.Cers want right now--any party will likely adapt itself quite amazingly, in accordance with citizens' wishes. Remember, Nader has argued that when Americans actually wanted expansion in government services--during the 60s/70s, the Republicans were actually a fairly left-wing party: more left-wing, in certain aspects, than the Democrats are right now.
Ian Weniger
05-04-2009
Where was Gregor in the March For Housing?
Gregor was just another marcher. As mayor of Vancouver, demanding an end to homelessness in his election campaign, he should have been on stage, front and centre, dragging the rest of the Vision team to be sure that Vancouverites see him as a leader.
Instead, he was just hanging out in the crowd, chatting happily with what appeared to me to be admirers and friends. Back in the day, many lefties liked to discourage electoral politicians from leading grassroots demonstrations. I understood that this showed respect for the people who did the work, but I thought it cut off the event from the mainstream.
A bunch of nobodies could have the biggest demo and the only coverage is the traffic station telling people to avoid the congestion caused by the marchers...but a famous politico has a media conference with noone but reporters attending and it's on every webpage and twitter.
Gregor appears to be avoiding anything that would show he has a backbone. At least Sam Sullivan had a plan and stuck to it... I guess we have to leave Vision out of the vision for a Liberal defeat next month.
frenchy mcswede
05-04-2009
The green party's campaign slogan
should be "vote green and elect gordon campbell." When I read a lot of the nonsense above, it becomes obvious why the ndp keeps losing. Does anyone see the right constantly engaging in internal bickering and undercutting one another? Carol James may not be barack obama, but she is a hard worker, can kick campbell's ass in a debate, and can win the next election if people unite behind her. When I look at the left and see crap like the tyee hating the republic of east vancouver, who hate the straight, who hate 24 hours etc, etc, it's really no wonder the left has trouble winning when so many people are like little children who whine "I don't agree with everything carol james and does so I'm going to punish her by electing gordon campbell or by voting green. I think we all know just who's going to get punished in this scenario, hint: it's not campbell. James spent a lot of hard lonely time rebuilding the party, when no males were interested, when they had two seats, remember. And, alive, there's been generations of discrimination against women, a few extra women candidates aren't going to hurt people like you, for whom everthing has to be perfect -and at such a late date!-before you condecend to vote ndp definitely are though. if the left spent as much trying to unite and find common ground, as it does bashing james, with whom I don't always agree myself, we would have retaken bc long ago.
As to those who say that the ndp's core support won't turn out for them, this is opposite to polls which say the ndp has the firmest support, and definitely opposite to my experience in my own riding in which ndp supporters turned out in droves during the last by-election. So my advice is you can grow up and get rid of campbell, and then be active and effect reform in the ndp if you want. But whining at this late date is merely counter productive, and helps campbell no end. As for green supporters, don't you think there's a reason why true progressives like chris shaw, and others have left the green party in droves, could it be because their real purpose is splitting the progressive vote, the ONLY thing they have demonstrated competence in. And greens like the stooge that worked for sam sullivan are always undermining the left. But just keep it up, punish campbell by electing him, yup, makes a lot of sense...
Jack's
05-04-2009
Polls...?
Obviously the author doesn't pay any attention to the polls..
I'm certainly not a fan of Gordo's but the NDP doesn't have a hope. Has anyone viewed Carole lately?
realisticman
05-04-2009
Yes, son but that was long time ago
Whatever happened to what used to be the No. 1 issue - The Environment?
I know that the Liberals passed Canada’s first tax on pollution and they established 57 new parks, over a hundred conservancies plus a few protected areas and were the first province to join the Western Climate Initiative which is North America's largest cap-and-trade system but have they totally absorbed the Green vote?
I suppose that the declining economy has bought this issue to the front. There's no question that in challenging economic times the first priority of any family is their finances, as well as their taxes.
Campbellwearsatutu
05-04-2009
Rman
You have any proof about the parks and conservancies?
And are you subtracting the theft from the ALR
Fish Farms
Off shore oil n gas
Enbridge pipe line across BC (proposed)
Burns bog land removal for SFPR
Delta port expansion
Or how about 300.000 hecters of forest that have been illegaly given away to land developers that donated a few bucks to the Liberals.
Destruction of eagle ridge bluffs
A quadrupling of raw(old growth)log exports
Destruction of the flathead valley to extract billions of tons of dirty coal for China
Destruction of the upper pitt for a failed run of river
not to mention a giant ferry stuck on the bottom causing enviromental problems
An overpass and highway through the best farming land in langley(dubbed the highway to nowhere)
Fiat lux
05-04-2009
Contrary to propaganda, BC,
Contrary to propaganda, BC, and Canada, have no economy to speak of, but, thanks to the present governments, both provincially and federally. Now we're living off the sale of the country from under our feet, with our braindead politicians and economists calling this irresponsible idiocy GPD and Growth.
The secretly negotiated TILMA, adopted without any parliamentary debate, is only one of the first steps for fulfilling the dreams of our wealth creating foreign investors, in reality our owners, for the introduction of the "free movement of labour" between the NAFTA countries, to replace Canadian workers, who, in the long standing policy statement of the origins of the present governments, the Reform Party, have "priced themselves out of the market".
Our economic overlords, the owners of the BCLib and federal Conservative parties, inflated the cost of living by over 1000% in the past 35 years, while wages remained stagnant for all practical purposes, and yet, this is still not enough for them. Or for the politicians under their control.
Ed Deak.
midnightsimon
05-04-2009
I am so sick of NDP hacks
I am so sick of NDP hacks arguing that they somehow 'own' green supporters.
The bottom line is that many Green voters dislike BOTH major political parties in this province. To say that Greens should just suck it up and vote NDP to avoid the Liberals is fundamentally undemocratic. It is an argument for an American style two party system where no one actually gets what they want. Every federal campaign we hear NDP supporters cry foul whenever this same argument is applied to the federal NDP/Liberal 'split.'
The problem is not that Green voters are cheating the NDP out of victory by not supporting their candidates. The problem is that Green voters are being cheated out of fair representation by a flawed electoral system that over compensates established parties.
The answer is not for Greens to vote (against their conscience) for a party they don't like to avoid a party they like even less. The answer is to vote YES to BC-STV and bring in a system of proportional representation. Once in place "there's no chance they'll elect a Green Party candidate in their own ridings" will be a thing of the past, and BC voters can say goodbye to strategic voting and unethical pressure tactics by parties like the NDP.
Vote NO to strategic voting and YES to BC-STV. After that, vote with your heart!
midnightsimon
05-04-2009
Oh, and PS - still waiting
Oh, and PS - still waiting for an environmental platform from the NDP. If they're serious about attracting Green voters, perhaps they should actually reach out to them with some policy ideas that resonate. All I've heard from the NDP so far on the environment is opposition to the carbon tax... not a great start, if you ask me.
Skywalker
05-04-2009
frenchy, "when no males were interested"?
It's comments like that, that really get me going. I really hate to think I get any praise from realisticman, nor do I want it, but you know very well it was the party insiders at the time that wanted James. These were the same, soft NDP,single-issue members that wanted Ujjal. They were prepared to give Campbell another four years so James could learn her craft in opposition. They were also the ones who were shunted aside in the late 90's and they wanted a clean slate to start over. James did not want anyone she (and they) could not intimidate. They were willing to give Campbell another four years.
Well, they got Campbell for another four years and she has not learned her craft very well. On key issues all these new sheep have followed. I guess there were not many bright lights on the clean slate she orchestrated. We now run the risk of giving Campbell another four years and I'm mad as hell that they have not learned a thing. The choice has risks either way and when I don't like being forced to make a hobson's choice, I prefer to make none. Add to it a useless NDP incumbent candidate in my riding and I can see where both options will make no difference to me.
Maybe when the NDP gets back to its roots they will have a chance and then it will actually make a difference which way I vote. If Carole James and Gordon Campbell were running in my riding I would vote for Carole, no question as Campbell to not to be trusted, I don't have that choice. The choice I have is something distasteful.
VivianLea Doubt
05-04-2009
brothers and sisters
I forget who said that politics was a blood sport - probably some ***hole I didn't vote for - but it certainly is true in BC. I confess I am troubled by this thread, because I see mirrored here the distractions that have kept us mired in the status quo for several decades, at least. If there is to be any hope for democracy, surely it lies in some kind of coalition of the engaged? Perhaps that simply means we refrain from ripping each other's throats out...
I am also deeply troubled by the actions of the Liberal government in their past two terms: I would be hard pressed to name one of their policies that has not negativley impacted me and mine. But it is, too, a very sad commentary that a previous NDP government opted for building schools that looked utilitarian, rather than the same cost, beautifully designed ones so as not to give the voting public the wrong impression...spendthrift government etc.
The key principle is obviously to move beyond government by the lowest common denominator - government by public opinion - but configuring that might require a whole lot of restraint on the part of all of us. If the engaged cannot coalesce, who will, brothers and sisters?
Yammer
05-04-2009
Gregor is the premier-in-waiting
That is about as obvious as politics gets.
To me, Carole James remains the safe, interim, time-filler NDP candidate, who assumed that thankless job when higher profile people like MacPhail wouldn't run.
She could still emerge as a real leader but will have to start coming up with compelling ideas. Poo-pooing the carbon tax might be the right thing to do, but it is not dynamic, it is simply reactive. What has she ever done? What has she really got to offer? Other than not being Gordo, which is clearly good enough for many.
alive
05-04-2009
get real
frenchy mcswede I actually read your latest post, and somewhere in there you assume I am hesitant to vote NDP.
I am hesitant to agree that the party is on the right track, OK?
From there to even think about any alternative is quite a jump!
Since when is it bad form to voice opposition to platforms one does not agree with?
I have said my piece about James and her female agenda since she brought it on, no last minute here!
If you for one minute think that what we write here in any way influence the average voter, you are dreaming!
They are too busy watching crap on their TV.
Frank
05-04-2009
Gregor Robertson
Will never be premier unless he changes course.
Alienating the left-wing supporters that made him mayor means he needs a lot of those federal Harper supporters to get elected.
I ask you, what Conservative voter will vote for a Gregor Robertson led party?
The fact is, there are not enough non-Left, non-Reform voters to elect anyone.
Robertson will never advance beyond mayor.
Moonbug
05-04-2009
BC STV is legalized rape of
BC STV is legalized rape of the electorate. If anyone here thinks that democracy will somehow be improved by having 30 candidates on a ballot, they are frigging dreaming.
Nevermind the fact that it would make B.C.'s rural ridings so huge they would be completely unmanageable.
What a stupid idea. Impossible to scrutineer as well.
Campbellwearsatutu
05-04-2009
Gregor......
Robertson,for those who ever watched the legislature,was an ineffectual MLA--He was a poor speaker,he emitted no emotion,sure he put his face behind a cause but......
Gregor has alawys been about gregor,we had to get rid of the NPA,Robertson will be a one term pony,the only thing gregor has going for him is........
Apparently females swoon when he saunters by.
Peter Dimitrov
05-04-2009
This election is a time to
think deeply, to really ponder about the matters of interest/concern to yourself, your family, your community, this Provice as a whole, future generations of British Columbians, think about the values that are important to you, think about the record of the BC Liberals during the past two terms of government, the pros & the cons, reflect on what is being proposed by each party as their platform, think about what excellent Leadership ought to mean in a democratic society and reflect upon the presence of those leadership qualities in each of the Leaders of the Parties that are contenders - and then vote for the Party that will, if elected, enact legislation in a multiplicity of areas to advance your concerns and interests - while respecting those values.
Finally, if I may use an analogy from the world of horse racing: the horses are at the gate, the race is about to begin, the contenders for the Prize are known, the time to change 'lead horses' is long since past and all the moaning and groaning will not change the lineup at the gate, soon we must either place our bets or abstain altogether, either way it is incumbent upon us to make the best of the situation that presents itself - simply because that factually is the situation we are facing. Either we go with the 'horse' that we know and who has been 'leading' the race for the past eight years or we select a contender, or like approximately 800,000 that are not registered to vote- we abstain completely from this 'game' and the rules by which it is played. Those are the hard facts of the case as I see it. There are at least two tools of value to help make sense of it all- spectacles to better notice matters we may have not seen before - and a mirror to better see our own minds, hearts, hopes and dreams as authors of our own destiny - and not subjects of someone elses script.
Morg
06-04-2009
Bring it on
I always vote green but this time I have to vote NDP Im in Campbells riding and I want him and them gone.Campbell is destroying our rivers ,cutting the last of the old growth trees ,no endangered species laws ,these garbage fish farms etc etc its never ending with these guys.Vote STV
Frank
06-04-2009
JStog
"Then there's the BC NDP's wonderful past.
No they don't resemble the Socreds at all. The Socreds developed long term growth plans for the province. The BC NDP dismantled alot of it."
I guess you aren't old enough to remember a guy named Bill Bennett who turned in the worst economic performance in BC history this side of World War 2.
As for dismantling, what was your favourite Socred institution that the NDP destroyed?
Frank
06-04-2009
STV
STV means I don't have to vote for the lone NDP candidate in my riding regardless of their stance on the issues or their past record.
Instead, I can give my first vote to the most left-wing of the bunch if I like while still allowing my vote to be passed on to other NDP candidates if my first choice fails to get the required number of votes.
In other words, STV means the end of the reign of the so-called "swing" voter and the end of what happens in all 2 party democracies, where you get both parties becoming pretty much the same because they are fighting over the same small pool of swing voters.
That's why the term for US politics is tweedledum-tweedledee. Gore-Kerry had to gear their policies so as to appeal to those that might vote for Bush. There was no room to attract Nader voters because anything that would appeal to them would alienate swing voters. The result? Nader voters were left without policies they could vote for and then were blamed by Democrat buffoons for their defeat. STV would end that.
Grumpy
06-04-2009
We need change - desperately
STV is not perfect, but our present system 'Them of Us', is leading this province to destruction. I will support STV because, unlike many others, I am not afraid of change!
JStog
06-04-2009
W.A.C. Bennett
W.A.C. Bennett and Carol James have nothing in common.
Frank
I remember W.A.C. Bennett and his son Bill.
The BC NDP dismantled the forest industry plus the mining industry.
NDP AG Gablemann's 1993 public statement was clear. "Logging companies will be in the waste paper basket within the next decade" Now the NDP's concerned about the forest industry???? So Its Ok to cut down trees and export lumber.... thats not destructive but getting water power from a ROR creek is.
The BC NDP needs to rebuild their undermined platform.
stan
06-04-2009
Do you want 4 more years of Gordo?
Whatever Carol James' faults are, another Campbell win would be a tragedy for everyone in BC, except perhaps the wealthy. Moreover, Green voters are throwing away their votes until we get STV. If you want things to change, vote for the NDP and vote for STV.
Skywalker
06-04-2009
JStog.
It was Campbell that dismantled the logging industry, The mining industry started its decline in the mid 80's and Gablemann's comment was predicated on "if we do nothing". Raw log exports are now the only activity. Mills have been shutting down ever since Campbell got the reins of power.
WAC would never have tolerated what Bill or Gordon have been up to. WAC may have hated unions and such but he would not have sold out BC.
I don't know from which bathroom wall you get your information but you might want to check your facts a bit.
Frank
06-04-2009
JStog
You're all over the map. You complain the NDP cuts down trees while hailing the policies of the Liberals and Socreds, which was to cut down trees. Make up your mind.
You must be the only person in BC that thinks the logging industry is in better shape now than it was a decade ago.
Frank
06-04-2009
Bill Bennett
GDP at Market Prices
1981 -6.1% (!!!)
1982 0.6%
1983 0.8%
Whereas your "lost decade" NDP's worst year was
1998 1.3%
Notice that's still in positive territory and is far better than Bill Bennett's record in the early 80's.
realisticman
06-04-2009
GDP at Market Prices
to extend your stats Frank;
The Liberals worst year since Clark/Dosanjh was was 2003 2.3%. A 3.55% average over the past few years.
Yup, it's the economy.
Frank
06-04-2009
realisticman
"The Liberals worst year"
Methinks the stats for the Liberals' worst year haven't been posted yet. Or do you think this year will be better than 2.3%?
Wilfred Laurier
06-04-2009
What are you smoking?
The NDP has no coherent environmental policy. They used to, but the smoke stack unions put and end to that.
I agree that Robertson is the only hope for the NDP but only if he can wrest control from the ideologues and move the party to the centre. So far he has been a better mayor than most and has shown his ability to work across party lines.
JStog
06-04-2009
World economy's down (who did it) (Americans or Gordo)
Skywalker
My Facts are from personal experiances including sitting across a table with Gablemann. You weren't there? Your facts?
Remember The Carrier Lumber court Case.... Alot of dirt was exposed on the NDP Governments rotten treatment of the forest industry. Its been mentioned numerous times here. Also It was the BCNDP who APPROVED THE SALE OF M+B TO AMERICAN LOG EXPORTER Weyerhaeuser.
Maybe that was before your time.
Gablemann also said "The BC NDP was under no illusion of ever being elected again, so taking that into account they'd make sure whatever was done couldn't be undone"
I won't forget. And can't be bullied to keeping quiet about it.
Frank
lol
Its the BC NDP who are all over the map. ..... Are The BC NDP against logging or for it? I don't know???? Is the NDP's platform consistent with their past? Credibility and trust is just not there.
Where's Gregor Robertson Now? Trust The BC-NDP ???... LOL
G West
06-04-2009
Credibility and Trust
JStog -
You TRUST Gordon Campbell?
My God man that in itself says a lot.
Whatever the NDP may have done (or not done) is inconsequential in comparison with the wholesale wreckage CEO government has created during the Campbell years.
Whenever you care to compare the record of the 3 NDP governments this province has had with all the rest - instead of citing your own 'personal' and unreliable anecdotes - I think there are plenty of people ready to take you on.
I've asked you to do this several times before, instead you keep posting the same stuff - how come?
The record of the Campbell Government is dismal and it's readily apparent - that's the issue in this election - no matter how hard the PAB spins. Even so reluctant and unreliable an interlocutor as Erin Airton (who lost her gig with 24 Hours by the way) admitted this on CBC radio this morning.
Wilfred Laurier
06-04-2009
Vote Splitting
The only time the NDP has ever held power was when the free enterprise vote was split.
Now it is happening to the NDP; Mike Harcourt (one of the best premiers in BC's history, but hated by his own party) very successfully brought the green vote under the NDP umbrella. That allowed Clark to get in.
However, smokestack unions are against any real environmental platform and have laid down the law.
And the NDP has lost the support of the environmental movement, and with it the ability to form a government.
frenchy mcswede
06-04-2009
As regards the posted bc liberal
campaign ad above: just as I have been predicting for weeks and as the liberals saying for about as long the bc liberals are running on being the best economic managers. I have also been begging the ndp to run economic attack ads for even longer.
I am reminded of the last federal election when the conservatives got in by making similar claims despite having a campaign manager, jim flaherty, who left a $5 BILLION HIDDEN DEFICIT, when he was mike harris' finance minister, a deficit hidden so that it was impossible to discover until after harris was thrown out of office. The federal conservatives also squandered the $8 billion surplus they were left on taxcuts for the rich, the usual fate of tax payer paid surpluses under right wing governments.
Yet not one opposition party had the wit to call them on this, even though the economy is well known as the ultimate ace that trumps everything else, the ultimate electorate moving lever. Nor is the excuse of the dominance of right media acceptable -the more of a free pass the right is given on the utterly nonsensicle myths of being the best economic managers, the harder the myth is to refute. Because the question of economic management is such a powerful motivator, ads criticizing the right as economic managers have a multiplier effect on voter support for progressives as well, especially if based on hard statistics, not outright bluff like the bc liberal ads from a government that has been losing jobs for over a year, that pissed away what should have been a 2 billion dollar surplus, that has the fastest growing employment insurance rolls in canada, despite a residue of olympic construction. It's reminiscent of the states where rightwing governments like reagan's and bush junior both ran the highest deficits ever; yet rightwing pundits to this day continue to make the same ludicrous claims.
Because the ndp is so woefully timid on this issue, which could have won them the last provincial when the bc liberals had lost massive amounts of full time jobs, replaced by low wage parttime, no benefit jobs, I am asking ndp supporters to petition their local ndp mla to mount attack ads on the liberal's economic performance, and to also get out the word in as many ways as possible just how dismal the bc liberal record of economic management is. What a pity it will be if the liberals win AGAIN on this issue despite not having created any new manufacturing jobs, despite median incomes falling since 2005 in bc, despite having squandered massive revenues from the commodity and housing boom, with absolutely nothing to show for it, despite the fact that if reelected they will run deficits 5 years out of 9, and that they only "balanced" the budget before the last election by selling bc rail, etc, etc, etc...
Frank
06-04-2009
Wilf
You and the Harper supporters, eternal allies eh?
What is it like being allies with voters you call ignorant "Herr Harper" acolytes?
Fiat lux
06-04-2009
I happen to live in the
I happen to live in the middle of the forest industry, which was going full blast during the NDP governments.
One of the first acts of Campbell was to wipe out the local processing law, permitting the transport of logs to major mills far away from where they originated.
So much for their phony anti carbon laws.
All the 5 major mills in Williams Lake, once all individual private enterprises, now belonging to 2 mega corporations, are closed down and about 6 corporations rule the forests, where once hundreds have been.
As far mining is concerned, the first thing to remember is that the export of unprocessed resources is the sale of capital, which should never be accounted as GDP, or "income" by any sensible and correct business accounting system.
The nearby Mt.Polley copper/gold mine, near Likely, was opened during the NDP and closed down for years during the first years of the BCLibs on account of the poor prices, which also held back the opening of new mines, which had nothing to do with politics, or the governments, regardless of the propaganda by the industry.
The overloaded ore trucks are breaking up our roads, pressing deep ruts into the pavement, even during breakup times, when logging trucks are banned.
The Mt. Polley company allegedly pays anywhere from $10 to 20 million in road fines per year, but the only repair our roads are getting are crack filling and the perennial reparation of the wooden bridge over Big Lake creek, which should long have been replaced. The lines are not painted, by some low bidder, sometimes till Sept. ready for the snow cover.
The fancy show projects need the dough and to hell with people living and producing the real wealth of the province in the rural areas.
Hundreds of farmers and ranchers, the real private enterprisers, are going broke because the markets are controlled and prices fixed by single multinational corporations, with the governments standing by and not enforcing the long standing anti trust and cartel laws on the books.
So much for today's "free enterprise", which has become the worst collectivization racket since Stalin. The only difference is that the present crooks are not using bayonets, but the perceived power of imaginary capital, "created" from the air by some bank, often in a foreign country, colonizing and destroying us.
Ed Deak, Big Lake.
Wilfred Laurier
06-04-2009
Home Construction
"I happen to live in the middle of the forest industry, which was going full blast during the NDP governments."
So was new home construction in the USA.
The point of the article is really how the NDP should be getting enough votes to get elected and form a government and how they can achieve that.
Frank
06-04-2009
Life is beautiful
"The point of the article is really how the NDP should be getting enough votes to get elected and form a government and how they can achieve that."
They can't unless they adopt policies that will appeal to the federal Conservative voters that make up around half our province on any given day.
The NDP appeal to federal NDPers, federal Liberals and a few Greens. But there are not enough non-Harper supporters in BC to give the NDP a majority.
Nor would introducing right-wing policies that appeal to Fraser and Okanagan Valley Conservative supporters produce victory since the BC Liberals already own that constituency.
Fiat lux
06-04-2009
The NDP could easily achieve
The NDP could easily achieve it if they have the guts to list the dirty secret deals, damages done to the environment, the fishfarms, the sale of rivers, and the sale of any and all public properties without permission.
The BCLibs are following the ideas proposed in a book by Arnold Block, in the mid 80s, by the advertising agency called the Fraser Inst. demanding the sale of all Crown lands, lakes and rivers. Block was on CBC at the time, claiming that he would also sell and divide the seas and oceans, as an "environmental protection measure" He's a professor of economics in the USA now.
Then we have the PPPs, allegedly "saving" the government from having to borrow. Bloody lie. Governments can borrow at the best rates. The real meaning of the PPPs is Plundering the Public Purse, because the taxpayers have to pay higher interest rates, plus interests and profits on the top of the rates, jacking up the costs sky high, but hidden from the public.
I've recently spent 38 days in hospital. Under the present system, male and female patients are jammed into the same rooms, without any privacy and dignity, in perennial darkness in curtained cubicles.
The nurse shortage is chronic and getting worse. Large percentage are middle aged, many at retirement age, with a small number of young and students,who are forced to pay $5-6,000 per year in tuition fees for a critically important profession, when the govt. could easily solve the problem at a chickenfeed expense, compared to their show projects.
The care we received was first class, with kind words and smiles on their faces, doing the dirtiest jobs, constantly on the run, trying to answer bells ringing all over.
The doctor shortage is temporarily helped by an influx of South African doctors, bu what then?
The food is cooked hundreds of km. from the hospitals, then trucked all over the province, so much for carbon concerns, warmed up in microwave ovens, destroying all food qualities, with the vast majority ending in the garbage, as uneatable. This is called "saving" and "fiscal responsibility".
Shall we go on detailing the pathetic moral corruption by brainwashed ideologues, bucking for directorships?
Ed Deak.
zorya
06-04-2009
too green to win
I wish the greens would win, but they won't, which means ~ since so many people think strategic voting is undemocratic ~ we're most-likely looking at continued Liberal government supported by a minority of voters
cw
06-04-2009
Much as I DON'T want the Libs again...
The NDP has to quit giving "The Gordon Campbell Liberals" so much ad space in their message.
I like the line from Jesse Jackson about how many people today would remember Martin Luther King, Jr. or his famous speech if he'd called it "I Have A Complaint". "The other guys are bad" isn't enough of a reason beyond BC's tendency to vote people out, rather than vote them in.
Some of the members are great people and candidates, mine in particular, but we need to hear the sound of someone ready to govern.
My 2¢ worth, at any rate.
Wilf Day
06-04-2009
how to attract Green swing voters - democracy
Excellent analysis. Clearly the NDP needs to attract the Green swing voters.
But it's so easy! Just support democracy. If a majority vote for BC-STV -- that's more than 50% -- pledge to implement the wishes of the majority.
Is any New Democrat opposed to democratic decision-making? I don't think so. This is a no-lose proposition.
And it will surely attract lots of Green swing voters.
How about it, Carole?
Skywalker
06-04-2009
Frenchy, "Carol james did all the hard work."
Get a grip man. It was Kwan and McPhail that did all the hard work along with a whole lot of members who stayed after 2001. Where was Carole all that time? There were two male candidates with provincial political experience. Carole had limited experience with school boards. She was an unknown and guess what the problem is now. After 2005 the party made excuses for a lackluster campaign after they had the best chance of giving Campbell the boot they ever had. I'm tired of cutting the NDP slack.
And no, I am not Luke Skywalker. I think he's become a liberal candidate now I had the name before he arrived.
Like Fiat Lux says. We too had sawmills before Campbell. Now all that is left is logging for export. You see Frenchy my B.S. detector has limited tolerance and I call them like I see them.
JStog
06-04-2009
Trust Who?
G West
You TRUST Gordon Campbell?
No I don't trust Campbell, But I DISTRUST CAROL JAMES AND THE BC NDP EVEN MORE.
I think there are plenty of people ready to take you on.
Not into aggression G West.
Frank
Get a grip. The issue's the BC NDP's credibility or lack of it.
I say they have NONE. Nothing. Zero.
Personal attacts don't work.. Frank.