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To Win, New Dems Must Pry Loose These Six Seats
Comox Valley, Saanich South, Stikine, North Van-Lonsdale and two in Burnaby.
Burnaby Deer-Lake NDP candidate Kathy Corrigan with party leader Carole James.
Six seats. That may be all that stands between NDP leader Carole James and the premier's office.
If British Columbians vote on May 12 the same way they did in 2005, they will elect 48 B.C. Liberals and 37 New Democrats, according to a review of how the old vote would likely play out in the province's new ridings.
If James can persuade just six additional ridings to switch allegiance, that would give New Democrats the 43 seats require to form government. It's a long-shot scenario that requires the NDP to carry all of their safe seats, win each and every one of the swing seats that lean their way, and pry six B.C. Liberal seats from Campbell's grasp.
Here's a quick look at six B.C. Liberal ridings the NDP is likely to target:
Burnaby-Deer Lake
This new electoral district was carved from the old Burnaby-Willingdon and Burnaby-Edmonds ridings, and its precincts' voting histories would appear to favour the B.C. Liberals by a six-point margin.
John Nuraney was elected as MLA in the riding of Burnaby-Willingdon in the 2001 provincial general election, and was re-elected in 2005. Nuraney is a former insurance agent and realtor who now owns several A&W restaurants.
The NDP are running high-profile union veteran Kathy Corrigan, who served three terms on the Burnaby Board of Education. Corrigan, a lawyer, is a researcher for the Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE). She is married to popular Burnaby Mayor Derek Corrigan.
Burnaby-Lougheed
B.C. Liberal Harry Bloy is running as an incumbent in this newly named riding, which includes much of his former Burquitlam district. He was elected in 2001 and re-elected in 2005, and Bloy's prospects should be improved slightly by the new riding boundaries.
But Bloy faces an unusually strong challenge from union leader Jaynie Clark, who managed Bill Siksay's successful 2004 and 2006 campaigns. Clark has worked for the B.C. Government Employees Union (BCGEU) for two decades, most recently as director of human resources. The union represents more than 60,000 members, and is expected to work hard to elect one of its own.
Comox Valley
This Vancouver Island riding also lacks an incumbent, due to the death of B.C. Liberal MLA Stan Hagen in January. Hagen took 46 per cent of the 2005 vote, narrowly defeating NDP opponent Andrew Black's 43 per cent; Green candidate Chris Aikman took 9 per cent of that vote.
The NDP are running newcomer Leslie McNabb, who has worked in the forest industry for 30 years, against three-term Courtenay councillor Don McRae, who works as a social studies teacher. Both are born and bred Islanders. No Green Party candidate has been announced.
North Vancouver-Lonsdale
All of the North Shore ridings have been safe seats for the B.C. Liberals since Gordon Campbell became the party's leader. But this new riding lacks an incumbent, and redistricting has altered the north and northwest boundaries of North Vancouver-Lonsdale, moving the Capilano First Nations reserve into the district.
The B.C. Liberals are running businesswoman Naomi Yamamoto, who has served as chair of Capilano College's board of governors, of the B.C. Chamber of Commerce and of the North Vancouver Chamber of Commerce. Yamamoto has received several awards, including Business in Vancouver's 40 Under 40 Award in 1997.
The NDP are running former North Vancouver municipal mayor Janice Harris, who has topped the municipal polls in her last four elections. The Lonsdale riding, however, is in the City of North Van, not in the District of North Van, where Harris served.
Complicating matters for the B.C. Liberals, Lonsdale is among the handful of Metro Vancouver ridings being challenged by a B.C. Conservative Party candidate. Ian Mcleod has been involved in BC politics for over 20 years.
Saanich South
This sprawling suburb north of Victoria is a perennial swing riding, having been won by New Democrats in 1991 and 1996, a B.C. Liberal in 2001, and returning to the NDP in 2005. MLA David Cubberley is not seeking re-election this year, leaving the riding once again wide open.
The NDP is running vintner Lana Popham, who with her firefighter husband owns Barking Dog Vineyard. Popham lost a 2005 race for Saanich Council, and is known mostly for her campaign to replace disposable plastic bags with reusable ones.
Broadcaster Robin Adair is running for the B.C. Liberals. Adair worked for two decades as a sportscaster, news anchor and talk show host before becoming a PR consultant. His work for WCG International's disastrous JobWave program left him in the unpopular position of being Mr. No Comment.*
Stikine
B.C.'s largest and least populated riding may be the exception that proves the rule about the significance that green suburbanites will play in this year's campaign.
Boundary changes have left the new Stikine riding among the most polarized in the province. It has two population centres: The mostly white town of Smithers, which leans B.C. Liberal, and the mostly aboriginal community of Hazleton, which supports the NDP.
The B.C. Liberals are running Scott Groves, a political novice who coaches local hockey and softball teams when he's not working at his family's auto dealership in Smithers.
NDP candidate Doug Donaldson is in his fourth-term as a municipal councillor in Hazelton. Donaldson is the founding director of the Upper Skeena Development Centre, founder of the Gitxsan and Wet'suwet'en School of Journalism, and a board member of the Skeena Watershed Conservation Coalition. Donaldson ran against the B.C. Liberals in the 2005 election, and is expected to benefit from the support of federal NDP MP Nathan Cullen, who's wide-reaching campaign organization could help turn out the First Nations vote across this massive riding.
Tomorrow: Six ridings the BC Liberals will fight to keep.
*Story changed at 2 p.m., April 8, 2009.
Related Tyee stories:
- B.C. Liberals way up on NDP for 2008 political donations
- Fear the NDP, not this 'recession for sissies': Rob Macdonald
- May Contest Is NDP's to Win
Eight issues pecking away at Campbell's re-election chances.





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Campbellwearsatutu
3 years ago
you forgot one
Richard Lee in north Burnaby won by 60 votes in 2005......
He has been nothing but a slug of a MLA,backbencher with little skill for anything from what I have seen,Mondee Redman is quite popular in Burnaby,ad the prison debacle and........
Also there was a petition with thousands of names,Asian names against the prison,add Corrigan`s brass balls to stand up to Campbell,and Translink and,I would put North burnaby for the NDP in a lock!
Grumpy
3 years ago
La, la, la.................
.............. Mabel Elmore will go down in crashing defeat and I think a few other NDP seats will 'flame out'. NDP pick up the 3 Burnaby seats and maybe 1 or 2 others but will loose more than they gain.
Call it the Carole James syndrome.
alive
3 years ago
the Carole James syndrome.
Call it the Carole James syndrome.
Yup she will carry the blame if any female candidate fails to win!
Would serve her well for interfering in a standard, normal process of nominating candidates.
Next on the agenda will no doubt be to insist on minority candidates having preference.
James should learn that life is not fair, we are fighting for a great cause, and she is liable to screw it up by her petty ideas.
driftwolf
3 years ago
Forgot
Don't forget that the Liberals recently gerrymandered a few NDP strongholds, possibly out of existence. For instance, in Nanaimo they've moved boundaries around to include a few more Liberal supporting areas in districts that usually go NDP.
So it's probably a closer race than you might think.
Skywalker
3 years ago
In Stikine last time and against Nathan Cullen.....
...the liberals ran a candidate who was never in the race. Didn't run a campaign worth squat and might as well have stayed out. The conservative candidate was disgraced before it started. I would not be too sure that the NDP organization was the deciding factor. It was most likely the personal appeal of Cullen himself. That is something that won't be duplicated in the provincial.
Wilfred Laurier
3 years ago
By your own admission
It's a long shot scenario for sure.
I will stick with 50 Liberal seats.
freebear
3 years ago
I will hold my nose and
Vote NDP here in the Comox Valley.
Most of the blue hair crowd will likely vote Fiberal!
While I am no fan of James; Campbell makes my skin crawl!
JStog
3 years ago
The Carole James syndrome
I think the NDP will lose more seats than it gains.
The NDP's Platform of "No" is fueling very strong opposition.
http://www.zerocarboncanada.ca/can-mayor-robertson-save-public-transit-and-the-bc-ndp
The North Island is also a looming Flame out.
Yes Grumpy its "the Carole James syndrome"
Rhea
3 years ago
Carole James
Count me in as another who won't ever vote for the NDP again as long as Carole James is at the helm.
I voted for Michael Sather in the last election, but having him dumped from the party for not toeing their line *really* pissed me off. If a candidate isn't permitted to accurately represent the opinions of his constituents to the government, exactly why would we vote for him? Plus, while his focus on green issues is laudable, he has not been involved in a lot of other critical issues in the community because he focused on them to the exclusion of all else.
The straw that broke the camel's back for me with the NDP was that stupid "gender equity" crap. I'm a woman, and it totally insults me that James seems to think women can't achieve public office without some stupid bureaucratic legislation. It diminishes the achievements of those who are already working there, and casts doubt on the whole system of electing candidates when there's a perception that men are being reverse discriminated against. Not that the whole political/election system doesn't need a massive overhaul, but candidates need to stand or fall on their own merits rather than their biological equipment.
Guess I'm voting Green (and for STV, of course)!
Wilfred Laurier
3 years ago
Rhea
You make some excellent points and I thank you for adding some really constructive comments to the thread.
I also believe that women do not need any special status to be successful in politics and that is it actually demeaning to women and anti-democratic to force "gender equity."
It is so 90's, like the NDP itself.
frenchy mcswede
3 years ago
With supporters like those above
how can the ndp fail? Let's wait until the ndp has the perfect obama like canadidate, and campbell's in his fifth term, the last wild salmon is dead, and we're all living like medieval surfs. I guess that'll show campbell...duhhhh! I wonder if affirmative action could have ever helped obama...hmmm. And anyone who thinks all women now have a perfectly equal chance with all men everywhere, when they still earn only 75% on average of what men do probably needs..affirmative action. Off the net for at least 10 days...unable to immediately answer outraged howls...
politico
3 years ago
Burnaby
is and always has been at the very core of the NDP's success.
However even if they take back some of these seats (Corrigan's for sure) it will not spell success.
Oddly, and as this piece portrays, the BCNDP victory is a long shot. I say oddly because as we all know governments never get voted in they get voted out. And Campbell's should be no exception to this rule, however this time around it will be. Largely due to the fact that huge swaths of the NDP have no intention of winning.
Call it the Carole syndrome but doing so deflects the responsibility away from the real culprits.
The Liberal strategy of boundary changes complimented by a positive upbeat campaign will harmonize well with a complicit media and their ability to focus the repulsion away from the Libs record and onto the NDP's "dark decade."
Too bad really, a Carole premiership could really throw a wrench in things. Especially if she ditched those whispering in her ear when she got there.
Wilfred Laurier
3 years ago
Losing Mentality
"Call it the Carole syndrome but doing so deflects the responsibility away from the real culprits."
The real culprits in the NDP's lack of electoral success are the hard liner lefites who still control the party. This is the lot that tossed Mike Harcourt, one of the best premiers we have ever had, for something he had nothing to do with, and for which they were guilty as sin. Go figure and Harcourt is still seen as a bigger pariah than Gordon Campbell.
There is also a losing mentality in the party. You are not going to win when you enter the race already resigned to defeat. It is all about policy. If the NDP can examine itself and do what it needs to do to win, they can be a very successful force for social improvement in my opinion.
Maybe they will learn from their defeat in 2009 but I doubt it; they didn't learn a thing from 2005.
politico
3 years ago
Losers
WF Wrote:
The real culprits in the NDP's lack of electoral success are the hard liner lefites who still control the party. This is the lot that tossed Mike Harcourt, one of the best premiers we have ever had, for something he had nothing to do with, and for which they were guilty as sin. Go figure and Harcourt is still seen as a bigger pariah than Gordon Campbell.
You mean the ones that won the subsequent election?
politico
3 years ago
I am not surprised you did not respond
Becuase Wilfred, the fact is, this group of "hardliners" as you call them are the only NDP'rs who have run a campaign that beat Gordon Campbell.
Skywalker
3 years ago
Wilf Laurier is starting to be a comic.
The hardline lefties, whatever they are, don't control the party these days. It is the softline lefties or small "l" liberals. But I enjoy your comments about Harcourt. It is always nice to hear someone say how wonderful he was but they never would have voted for him. Wilf, you wouldn't have voted for the NDP if it was led by Christ himself. Harcourt's shortcomings were in that he lacked, for lack of a better word, "the killer instinct". He was a nice guy and one-on-one he came across well but he couldn't deliver 30 second sound bites and when called for was slow on his feet in the heat of debate. That is much like James now. Even so I didn't agree with what they did to Harcourt
Clark was seen as too abrasive, too cocky because the media wanted his head and projected that image. Instead he was quick and sharp and a match for Gordon any time of the day. Some of those characteristics of Clark that you despise are evident in Campbell. He uses them for questionable purposes and the media lets him get away with it. If Clark had done half of what Campbell has done, there would have been a revolt led by CanWest and maybe Wilf.
I consider myself a hardliner, but only when it comes to peddling of mythical interpretations of the past.
Wilfred Laurier
3 years ago
They did but.....
"You mean the ones that won the subsequent election?"
The hard liners did win the next election but actually lost the popular vote because the free enterprise vote was split.
"It is always nice to hear someone say how wonderful he was but they never would have voted for him"
I did vote for Mike Harcourt and I think he was one of the best premiers we have ever had. Too bad his own party did Judas on him because the way he moved the party was successful. Oh, that and running on Vander Zalm's record.
The record of the Clark government was set in 2001 when the NDP got two seats.
Skywalker
3 years ago
Wilf
Say after me C-A-N-W-E-S-T!.
G West
3 years ago
The issue in the election is, plain and simple
That only the NDP can defeat Campbell and Campbell, his lies and his sellout of the province ARE the issue. Write the place off if Campbell wins gets another 4 years - it is already the least fair and equitable place in Canada - far from being the best place on earth he's gone a long way to make it the worst.
If he gets in again - it won't be hard to determine who's to blame either.
Gordon Campbell is the ONLY issue in this campaign. CEO government has to go!
dirtmeister
3 years ago
Carolel James
With a reasonable leader the NDP should be in an easy election. Carole James is the problem she is the Sara Palin of BC politics both with C grade intellects. The last US administration (Bush 2) was dominated by C graders at best and we can see how well that turned out. A possible BC NDP administration would ensure a mediocre administration. That is what you get with affirmative action. Four more years of Campbell Liberals and the NDP have only themselves to blame.
Birch
3 years ago
Ignorance
Mark Slouka wrote a recent piece in HARPER'S magazine called "A Quibble", in which he argued (successfully, in my opinion) that America's election of Obama was nothing to be too excited about--the same ignoramuses who allowed Bush to steal an election (twice!) are still around and not any smarter.
BC is equally dough-headed. People may not vote for Campbell because he's born-again Christian and ready to shoot anyone who might vaguely threaten the electorate's right to pig out at the expense at the rest of the world. But they vote for him because he lowers taxes, has his buddies at Canwest continue to paint his better profile, and can say "best place on earth" and "Olympics" while ignoring his responsibilities to people who don't count (like students, the elderly, patients, and homeless or not-so-homeless working poor). We haven't had our economy completely cave (thanks to Federal banking regulations--if Campbell had been in charge of those, we'd be lined up outside the nearest branch bank), not yet, anyway.
Sure, the Liberals are corrupt as hell, are willing to destroy the environment (but who lives there!!?), value money over people any day of the week, could care less about your children or even their own (but theirs go to private school), and provide burnt offerings to Jimmy Pattison and the Fraser Institute. But Joe Average doesn't care and is unlikely to care in the future. Besides, the Stanley Cup playoffs are starting. Political issues? Give me a break. Give me a whiskey. There are too many disenfranchised people whose non-votes, along with the votes of the stupid and venal, will probably return Campbell to power.
It would be time to move if there were somewhere to move to.
Still, I'll be working for the NDP.
crh
3 years ago
Well said Birch
Here in BC where the right keep leading the dance in the right-left two step, I am disenfranchised at the thought of another four years of stealing from the poor to give to the rich.
Really, it all leads to one thing. Violence and civil unrest Could this be our future?.
Frank
3 years ago
dirtmeister
"Four more years of Campbell Liberals and the NDP have only themselves to blame."
The NDP are to blame for Campbell winning two elections and possibly a third?
I assume they put a gun to people's heads in the voting booth and make them vote Liberal?
And why are the Greens off the hook? Don't they contest elections too? Albeit unsuccessfully for three decades. And yet in spite of that lack of electoral success as measured by even so much as one riding victory in 3 decades, they opposed STV last time out.
Wilfred Laurier
3 years ago
Yes
"The NDP are to blame for Campbell winning two elections and possibly a third"
Any political party that loses an election has only itself to blame in that it did not attract enough votes to form a government.
Frank
3 years ago
Wilf
I'm sorry to hear you were forced at gunpoint to vote liberal. Perhaps you should go to the media with that story?
Campbellwearsatutu
3 years ago
Frank
Thanks for the support.......
I have a surprise for you......you have to listen to John Malcolm......
Cue up --April 8th 3.00 pm ---It`s all about the CEO of Plutonic,with some snipes thrown at Bill Good,and another visit to the radio waves from you know who......
Trust me,it`s worth the listen--Here is the audio vault
http://www.cknw.com/sharedstation/audiovault.aspx
Campbellwearsatutu
3 years ago
ooops
The link
http://www.cknw.com/stationshared/audiovault.aspx