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Billion-Dollar Development Planned for Flood-Prone Shore
Homework will be done says Mission mayor.
One proposal for the new look Mission waterfront posted on the district website
Jo-Anne Chadwick can already picture the view from the log-house-style building she and her husband Rob want to build on the Fraser River waterfront in Mission. "You would be able to see the whole river, Mount Baker, the Fraser Valley," she says, her mind drifting to the building's second and third floors where she wants to rent out condos. "From up there it would be pretty spectacular."
The Chadwicks' building is just one part of a proposed multi-billion-dollar riverfront development in Mission, a city of just over 30,000 halfway up the Fraser Valley, between Maple Ridge and Chilliwack. The plan is meant to change the entire complexion of the city, but it comes with one spectacular challenge: the exact area where the development is supposed to go is one of the areas least prepared to handle a major Fraser River flood, according to a recent Fraser Basin Council study.
The study used new technology to recalculate the Fraser's "design profile," a worst-case flood scenario based on water levels from 1894 -- the worst Fraser River flood on record. Since it was first publicized last summer in a Tyee investigative series, the study has sparked major debate over flood prevention and dike status in the Fraser Valley. Just last week, the Vancouver Province ran a six-part series on the impacts dike failure could have on B.C.
The study concluded that "widespread dike overtopping and dike failures would occur throughout the region in the event of a re-occurrence of the 1894 flood of record." And of all the at-risk areas, Mission Bridge -- with dikes sitting 50 centimetres to one metre below the new design -- stood out as one of the least protected shorelines on the river, according to one study scientist.
Mission flood prone: engineer
Robert Millar, a hydrological engineering specialist at UBC, worked as an external reviewer on the study. He says the Mission dike area is one of the most flood prone on the Fraser. According to his calculations, the dikes at Mission Bridge can handle the river up to 16,500 cubic meters per second. The design profile predicts flooding of 18,900 cubic meters per second. Easy math says that if the big flood hit Mission Bridge right now -- an event some predict could occur given this year's heavy rain and snow -- 2,400 cubic meters of water would pour over the dikes every second. "Based on this current study," Millar says, "it's a situation that has to be addressed with some vigour."
So who would want to anchor an entire community on these precarious shores? District of Mission Mayor James Atebe and his council are taking a serious look at it. "This area is a jewel that is sitting there waiting to be polished," Atebe says. Although the development is still at a very early stage, preliminary sketches are already up on the district's website. The plans include a civic centre, green spaces, shopping centres, a boardwalk, commercial and industrial parks, high-density residential blocks, and possibly even a new campus for the University College of the Fraser Valley. It's a 10- to 15-year project that Atebe estimates will cost between one and two billion dollars. In fact, he calls that his "conservative estimate." And it all leads down to a bustling Fraser River shoreline.
City plans to do its homework
Atebe does not deny that flooding presents a challenge to the plan. The district will spend approximately $1.5 million in the next 12 to 24 months for geotechnical and engineering studies. Atebe calls it homework.
"Essentially if we do our homework well enough...I believe that we will remove the uncertainty," he says. "We've got only one opportunity to do it right. If we don't do a lot of homework...we could easily make a mess of this site and then we will have to clean it up later."
The Chadwicks, too, know that flooding is a big risk. They plan to rebuild on waterfront lots they already occupy, so they are ahead of the main development schedule. The plans for their new building include "flood-proofing" measures, such as an elevated ground floor built above dike level and underground parking that would act as a water drain in case of a flood. It is a building style often used in parts of Florida where flooding occurs regularly, according to Jo-Anne Chadwick.
"If the river did decide to come up over and through, it would just wash out the other side," Chadwick says. "If it comes over, the worst thing it's going to do is blow out the parking area. Everything above it should be protected."
Whatever does end up on the Mission waterfront, Chadwick says it will be better than what is there now. "It is a place where there's no real roads, there's only about half a dozen homes down here, people test drive their cars up and down. Just until last year when we started cleaning up the area there was a pawn shop and drug deals went across the street and it was the forgotten area."
That could all change if the Chadwicks get their wish and the district moves ahead with development plans. No longer the forgotten area, the waterfront could become a place to remember for visitors and residents alike. But for that to happen the district will need nothing less than an A+ on their flood protection homework. The assignment: make sure a one- or two billion dollar investment creates a great place on the water, not underwater.
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RickW
5 years ago
So It's A Race.......
.....to see how much money can be made before it gets flooded?
Fiat lux
5 years ago
It is interesting how
It is interesting how "investors" always want to deregulate, until taken over by disasters, then demand the government and the taxpayer to bale them out.
"Taxation" is a dirty, nasty word until it has to come to save their necks.
Like the idiots who ski and snowboard outside the marked areas, then scream for the volunteers and tax paid equipment to come and risk ther lives for them.
With most town councils under "righties", theres no question this "wealth creating" development will go on, transferring the real costs on the taxpayers.
Ed Deak.
freebear
5 years ago
Fools rush in
So much for not allowing urban development in a floodplain!
What a mess we are planning for!
Like Ed said, developers cry to be able to develop floodplain/waterfront and then once its built and is flooded they ask why were we allowed to build in a floodplain?
Sheesh, we never learn, and especially not at the expense of profit/greed!
Grumpy
5 years ago
Maybe house boats are the answer
Maybe house boats are the answer or converted barges, hey how about a FastFerry or two! Better build higher and wider dikes, or better yet not build there at all!
snert
5 years ago
It can be planned for.
freebear
As long as it is done right flood levels can be planned for. The catch is, just what is right.
FWIW This article is a little premature. The Province is only on day 3 of the series and I am waiting to see if there is any reference to the Nechako River and whether it can be used for flood control or not. It is a significant tributary that can have water flow regulated even more than it is now by the Kenney Dam.
freebear
5 years ago
Have your cake and eat it too!
Well then I suppose if there is a flood you will not ask for didsaster relief then Snert since it was a planned floodplain development!
At what point would you move out of tornado alley?
snert
5 years ago
And you, no doubt, live in an earthquake zone.
freebear
This is a new development that is being talked about. There is absolutely no reason it can't be done by taking reasonable precautions. What are you trying to say, that the Dutch are stupid people.
freebear
5 years ago
The Dutch
No the Dutch are not stupid (your words), but definetely risk takers! I suppose a people, or Nation will do anything do hang onto territory, less than conquering other Nations!
I wonder how much higher and much reinforcing the Dutch dikes will need to address climate change and subsequent sea level rise?
I wonder how much that will cost?
I supopose it is the same as people insisting on building in an avalanche area.
I just do not want to pay for their relief after the next avalanche!
snert
5 years ago
Earthquake
freebear
There are very few areas of this province (BC) that have little or no risk associated with them. Just ask the people living in Kelowna how they feel about fire.
My point is that building in a floodplain is a manageable risk. Far easier to manage than living in an earthquake zone which has known mag 9 quakes in the past.
I guess that if you don't don't want to pay for people's relief after a disaster you must expect the very same treatment. I hope your house never burns down. Even if it is insured you'll still be relying oh the help of others.
There is an irony that every time Northshore Search & Rescue imperils their lives to find some dumb out-of-bounds skier we get a training session thrown into the deal. At some point in time these peoples skills may come in real handy in a large disaster and we will be able to thank these crash test dummies for providing live practice sessions.
People complain about these costs all the time without thinking of the benefits.
Capitalism
5 years ago
calling all lefties
this is what really bothers me about you people. you people couldn't care less about where it is being built, you care that it is being built.
you people hate development and don't pretend you care about a few well off people losing homes, they will undoubtedly insure.
maestro
5 years ago
What area ACTUALLY is 100 %
What area ACTUALLY is 100 % SAFE?
This topic is with respect to concerns with development if FLOOD prone areas.
Do people read this and then decide to locate on higher ground? We seem to have issues with FLOODING on hillsides when rains overwhelm streams...as well as slope INstability.
Maybe Barriere BC is safest...the major forest fire they had has seriously reduced THAT risk...but do you want to live there ? It will regrow.
After the sh!te hits the fan...people simply rebuild, whether it was San Fransisco earthquakes, Hurricanes in South east US...Tsunamis ...best one can do is minimize the risk.
clubofrome
5 years ago
Car 54 over....
Yeah sarge that's a big 10-4 on the development over. Er over development over. The overdevelopment definition comes in where we already have what "ecologists" may refer to as a fully developed, functioning ecosystems. I know that you lower brain functioning righties are screwing up your faces in confusion over that statment, so I will try and simplify for you. A forest for example would be a fully developed ecological area. Hosting plant and animal life in perfect balance! This balance is lost when your type bulldoze and/or slash and burn the forest down to raise cattle for mcburgers, rendering it useless for generations to come. Or perhaps.... Some swamp lands like the everglades that already perform an important role in say flood control, so perhaps it's not the best place to drain and build your 10,000 sq ft. home. I don't expect you to understand this as you haven't ever shown any comprehension about the natural world around you. You speak in terms of economics and growth, and of other human systems in conflict with nature as if nature was the obstacle blocking our development. Stupid humans like you bring us closer to what we call extinction. That's where a species disappears from existance, ceases to be, it is deceased, six feet under, pushing up the daisies, never to return and will be no more. A late species. Gone the way of the dinosauer, worm fo....
snert
5 years ago
I guess that makes two of you.
clubofrome
The problem is overpopulation plain and simple. Rather than berate your fellow man get out and spread the birth control gospel far and wide or at some point in time this piece of the planet you think you are protecting will get swamped by humanity.
I always find it amazing that it hasn't been already.
Skookum1
5 years ago
Mission's Old Downtown, pre-'48
Worth mentioning here that the area in question is Mission's old commercial downtown, pre-1948, a flood year which wasn't mentioned in the article (?) but which in Mission's case was the maker-breaker, not 1894 (after which Mission prospered, in fact).
Back before the ramps and caissons/pylons of the Mission Bridge were in place (long before the bridge itself, which took years to finish, a la vraie colombienne, Mission's pre-'48 downtown was still part of downtown. But in those days there was the level crossing at the foot of Horne, and not the steep near-switchback of the Murray St Overpass, and there were still a number of important businesses down there, including the local Safeway; once the fill for the on-ramps was in the area was majorly rearranged, and the overpass made it an extra psychological leap from the main part of (post-'48) downtown, First Avenue aka Main Street (aka once-upon-a-time Washington Avenue). And in the days when waiting for the one-way traffic light on the old rail bridge crossing, there was money to be made hawking drinks and pop and dogs to the line-up; not that that keeps a neighbourhood going, but it still was a neighbourhood. Now, I note in the article that there's only a half-dozen homes down there, and I know Safeway's dead as a duck, at least at that location (not sure what's in there now).
What I'm getting at is that, although still half-alive until the 1970s, the area to be developed has been largely a ghost-town since the '48 flood, which wiped out Mission as the main commercial centre in the valley despite the town's small footprint on the floodplain (Matsqui Village, just across the bridge, got it a lot worse and prior to the flood had been nearly as important as Mission, when Abbotsford was a mere blip in the farmland). So it's been a "dead zone" on Mission's waterfront, and frankly kind of depressing - bleak, pavement, vacant or half-vacant industries, big sandfill onramps, junkyards.
OK, it's on the floodplain and it's a stupid place to build anything; but better to build with modern anti-quake and anti-flood measures than without them. There's no reason to grouse on Mission for wanting to develop its waterfront when Westminster Quay is the perfect comparison and it's doing just fine (though eminently flood-able); this kind of redevelopment of Mission's flats I would have thought would have followed quickly on the heels of the West Coast Express - with CP no less cashing in its industrial land holdings in Mission for condo development, but clearly it took local initiative to conceive of that.
Adding in a commuter/shopper rail service to Abbotsford/Clearbrook (and connecting from there to a revived interurban line) and, ahem, to Lynden and Bellingham, would restore part of Mission's old importance as a rail junction, i.e. before the New Westminster rail bridge was opened, all rail traffic from the States to Vancouver went through Mission (except for what got barged across farther downstream, maybe); Mission's key location in the rail network were part of the reasons for its one-time proposed names, East Vancouver and (wait for it) North Seattle.
So, flood warnings aside and despite my usual gloom-and-doom forecasts of a megatsunami from Mt Breakenridge wiping out the Lower Fraser Valley, or a subsidence of Richmond causing a huge backwash of Georgia Strait waters up the Fraser Valley, there's no reason to single out the proposed redevelopment of Mission's waterfront vs. any of the other follies being perpetrated on the floodplain between Hope and the Gulf of Georgia. And I do think it would go a long way to making downtown Mission just a little less stagnant, and might even make the old downtown into a rather pleasant little yuppieville, a la Yaletown even (gasp, did I say that?). Better that than another Clearbrook......
freebear
5 years ago
Over Population
Snert, you said:
"The problem is overpopulation plain and simple. Rather than berate your fellow man get out and spread the birth control gospel far and wide or at some point in time this piece of the planet you think you are protecting will get swamped by humanity.
I always find it amazing that it hasn't been already."
But wouldn't population control limit consumption and therefore threaten economic growth? (being sarcastic!)
And without economic growth oh my goodness; lots of hand wringing! LOL!
Talk about mixed messages!
We are told Canadians are saving less money nowadays; yet also told we must continue to spend to buoy the economy!
Sheeeeesh!
clubofrome
5 years ago
gospel according to snert
That's pretty obvious given consumption rates. Population and consumption, soon too, after this unprecedented exponential period of growth, will crash. There are "limits to growth." But there is no stopping the momentum now. Too many people and too much want for wealth and modern conveniences. Even too much need for clean water and food.... I'm sure the mold is set now and we can attempt damage control, but forget setting limits on population. We could look at consumption but no one wants to go back to teepee living.
And just for clarification, maestro and capitalism may be the same species but they are not my kind of fellows. Perhaps you are right though, I shouldn't berate them. How are you with ridcule?
snert
5 years ago
Canadians are too good at it.
Here's an interesting perspective.
It may take a while to download.
snert
5 years ago
Your blood boils easier than mine.
clubofrome
Go for it.
maestro
5 years ago
clubo' forkedheadsinrome
Remember, you have been summoned to Jury Duty in Kangaroo Court.
PS I am sure glad your transmissions from the Moon are still getting through. Did Neil Armstrong leave you enough food ? Tang? Just add the local water !
Try not to impact that Lunar environment TOO much.
G'Day .
maestro
5 years ago
" What's safe ?" Part II
Every place is potentially a "stupid place to live" and every building method is potentially a stupid one as well , depending on the situation and circumstances .
When I see these densification projects go up I think of those earthquake photos ie KOBE Japan,
and how many of hose High Rise towers will pancake,like NYC's 9/11 WTC.
Of course that Hi-Rise density reduces the Enviro footprint, but God help those stuck in those concrete buildings. I'll do my best to help with my 10 lb. sledge hammer and various hand tools.
The BIG ONE is due with each passing day, yet they build more and more of these Hi- Rises each day .
PS You all know the peripheral use of HOCKEY RINKS in Emergency Preparedness Plans don't you..ie to be used as refrigerated MORGUES.
clubofrome
5 years ago
Too much Heat?
Listen maestro of his own domain, you've missed the point so many times now that it's embarassing. I think that some folk around here would listen to you if you packed up the lefty bullshite. Just grow out of it, That one simple thing. You seem to have unlimited local knowledge, which I think can be a valuable contribution here. Focus on that. Then later, if you're good, we'll work on your sense of humor....
maestro
5 years ago
Club-sky
Your point is very s-i-m-p-l-e, as are you quite often, but like I say there is ALWAYS hope.
Do you seriously think many of us haven't heard your version of " free speech " before ?
Is there anything e-l-s-e you wish to add....Monsieur Club-sky ?
Here is a TIP:
Check the "outing " that just occurred on the current TYEE Boys vs Girls school issue.
clubofrome
5 years ago
Not much of a tip...
Not sure what you're alluding to, but I don't take myself that seriously. I'm unique, just like everyone else. I don't really feeling like reading through a whole thread to find your tip. Why don't you just tell me straight up, like I'm trying to do with you? I'll also apologize for the FU contests, not eveyone understands the game. It's meant more of a battle of wits, but some may be offended. I'm not that sensitive. I don't mind being ganged up on either, as it causes me to re-think my position, perhaps I'm missing something. I can't be right all the time... I'm all for lightening things up, a little change in direction.
clubofrome
5 years ago
Trouble...?
I here the cry of injustice! Where's my cape? Must change into superhero identity now. Faster than a speeding Dolphin, more powerful than a Blue Whale... it's... it's... Ron Erwin? The cat is out of the bag. The gig is up. Wonder no more. Take back those sleepless nights. Rest easy as I AM Canadian!
maestro
5 years ago
Club-sky
FYI, your Moon signal is getting through, congrats .
However, you are backpeddling and simultaneously crapping your pants...make sure your feet are faster than your spastic sphincter.
Ah.....The smell of fear...careful that Taco Bell chihuahua doesn't swallow you whole.
ADVICE: Remember what your Shop Teacher used to tell you..." measure twice.... cut once "...Sub in " Thinking " for " measure" , and you figure out the rest.
You DON'T plan on having little Clubfrome's , do ya ?
At least have the decency to warn us.
clubofrome
5 years ago
May the flea's of a thousand camels...
Sorry, didn't mean to side track you from your special mission. Please carry on as the all knowing, and unfortunately, all telling Karnac of the Tyee. What kind of a loser has time to sit around and read/comment on every thread? What kind of ego centric delusion tells you that you should give your opinion on every topic? You are beyond blow hard. As I pegged you from the start, you are an abuser and you think you can fool us into believing you have a family? You?!? They are long gone, free from your abusive, intollerant behaviour. Consider all forms of courtesy offered to you as withdrawn. You will get what you give. The sooner the better too! Please go outside and repeat your behaviour, I want to see you on the news!! What a creep.
maestro
5 years ago
CLUBBED-sky
Re Karnac:
Now really... why are you so vile against G WEST?
How UNbecoming of you .
I know you are as pissed off at G WEST and his TYEE scam as the rest of us...but you really should lay off him.
If the aforementioned has abused their family, report it...maybe you can get a Crimestopper Reward.
Maybe turn in your own adult role models too.
Yiikkkeess.
It's YOUR type we will see on the news...usual psycho Leftie.
Back to school...it's a 1/2 day, remember? and bring a change of clothes.
clubofrome
5 years ago
I'd hide if I were you too...
Hey maestro, all of you criminally insane make mistakes sooner or later allowing your true identity to be exposed. You don't fool anyone here with your incoherent babble. The few times you do pretend to be "family guy" concerned with education, it's just a smoke screen. You're already in prison, loser. You think people can't recognize anti-social behaviour from what you've written? You truly are delusional. Are you foaming up yet? Maybe you are on the outside, but you'll offend again. It's only a matter of time. Like I've said before get help, you're sick.
maestro
5 years ago
club-sky
Gee:
You are phu-knee ( or is it phuk nee? )
Now wave the white-sky flag-sky.
clubofrome
5 years ago
maestro + nightbloom
nightbloom: Gee maestro you make excellent points!
maestro: left-sky BLAH/ arghhh thrppppt?????? Left, your left... Wave the flag-sky, (phuk nee)? leftinettes... (drool)-/sky!!
I'll stick with the majority and continue to mock you. Now that you have the Ron Erwin award what's the chance you will start working on a Darwin award?
maestro
5 years ago
club-sky
Do you sustain yourself by sucking farts out of dead rocks ?
Try eating your own head.
You are your one and O-N-L-Y majority.
errr: majority-"sky"
clubofrome
5 years ago
Split personality!
Nice. Let me guess? Foaming at the mouth, angry with the world, kick the dog mood?