This Budget Is Toxic Fudge
BC's government is in denial about the economic realities we face.
A sugary slice of denial for BC.
In a province where phoney-baloney budgets and fiscal manipulation are as common as rain, BC Liberal Finance Minister Colin Hansen's 2009/10 plan is as misleading and deceptive as any we've ever seen.
The global economy, as every British Columbian over the age of three knows by now, has collapsed. Job losses are rising at an ever-increasing rate; retail sales and housing starts have plunged and commodity prices tanked; and many of the world's largest financial institutions have imploded. Federal governments of every ideological stripe, as well as U.S. states and Canadian provinces, have or are wracking up gigantic fiscal shortfalls.
Yet, Hansen wants British Columbians to believe that for the fiscal year just ending, 2008/09, Victoria will incur a surplus of $50 million. Next year, the province is expected to record a deficit, but a rather puny one of just $495 million.
In other words, over a two-year period when the world economy is tanking and Victoria's spending will total nearly $78 BILLION, Gordon Campbell, Colin Hansen and the BC Liberals expect us to believe that the total deficit will be just $445 million -- or about half of one per cent of planned spending.
Every other jurisdiction in the rest of the world is having a near-death fiscal experience; B.C. has got a minor rash.
It's the same old pre-election, budgetary sleight-of-hand British Columbians have seen many times in the past, but of a scale and breadth never seen before. Expenditures have been artificially dampened, revenues boosted heavenward and a fiscal shock-absorber eliminated, all to create the illusion of a fiscal shortfall that is probably just one-quarter to one-fifth of its actual size.
Bleak expectations...
The 2009/10 budget and fiscal plan certainly acknowledges that the global economy has fallen sharply into a fear-inducing recession. The following are direct quotes from the "Economic Review and Outlook" found on pages 75-93 of the government's fiscal plan:
- "Risks to the economic outlook are weighted to the downside..."
- "... British Columbia's economy slowed considerably in the latter half of the year [2008]."
- "...monthly retail sales declined.... A dramatic decline in housing starts also occurred... with starts plummeting nearly 36.0 per cent between July and December 2008."
- "B.C.'s unemployment situation has also weakened in recent months, with the unemployment rate climbing from 4.5 per cent in July 2008 to 6.1 per cent in January 2009."
- "...the value of manufacturing shipments fell steadily through most of 2008..."
- "...month-over-month retail sales in B.C. have declined in four of the last five months leading up to November, reflecting declining consumer confidence..."
- "The U.S. housing market continued its rapid decline through 2008... Only 1974 posted a greater annual decline in housing starts..."
- "With eroding demand for new homes due to job losses, rapidly weakening prices for new and existing homes, rising foreclosure rates, declining consumer confidence and tight credit markets, the bottom of this U.S. housing slump may still be far off."
...and rosy projections
Given those gloomy observations, one might have expected that Victoria's revenues are susceptible to erosion in the year ahead. In fact, it seems like a near-certainty, given that the finance department anticipates the provincial economy to contract by 0.9 per cent.
Strangely, Hansen's budget predicts that most of the government's revenue streams will record a significant improvement over the next 12 months.
Let's start with his projection for BC Lottery Corporation profits. Across the province, like elsewhere in Canada, casino and bingo-hall operators have announced employee lay-offs. In difficult economic times, unsurprisingly, fewer people seem willing to wager their hard-earned cash. And for those who do, they wager less, and less often.
Yet Hansen claims that the lottery corporation's net income -- which all flows to the province's bottom-line -- will jump to a record-breaking $1.154 billion next year. That's an increase of $53 million, or 4.8 per cent, compared to the revised forecast for last year.
The same sort of revenue optimism can be found with the government's Liquor Distribution Branch revenues. LDB profits are expected to soar to $896 million, an increase of $29 million, or 3.3 per cent over the current year's revised forecast.
Hansen, it seems, expects British Columbians -- many of whom are scared to death over losing their jobs and homes -- to boost both their gaming and alcoholic activities in 2009. Party on, Colin!
Hydro to power the government?
Another Crown corporation expected to bring in loads of new dough is BC Hydro. Hansen claims the government will receive a dividend of $452 million from Hydro next year -- an increase of $95 million, or 26.6 per cent. It seems like an unbelievably optimistic number, given the dozens of pulp-mills, sawmills and mines that have shut-down or reduced their operations in recent weeks and months.
Even more astounding are the government's "investment income" revenues. Nearly every British Columbian -- like investors elsewhere around the world -- has seen his or her investment or retirement portfolios decimated recently as equity markets plunge ever lower.
But Hansen's budget asserts that Victoria's investment revenues over the coming year will grow by $79 million, a 9.4 per cent increase. (How many British Columbians expect to see a gain of nearly 10 per cent in their investment earnings over the next 12 months?)
Sales tax will... climb?
One can find such examples throughout the budget documents. Personal income tax? Even as the B.C.'s unemployment rate registers whopping job losses -- more than 60,000 full-time positions eliminated in January alone -- the Campbell Liberals see personal income tax revenue next year climbing upward by $343 million.
Let's not forget the dire economic warnings by the finance department. "Falling confidence among consumers suggests that they will put off major retail purchases for the time being," the fiscal plan states, "and that B.C.'s retail sector is unlikely to resume the strong growth of recent years in 2009."
But as consumer confidence wanes, Hansen sees B.C.'s sales tax revenues rising by an extra $89 million in the year ahead. It's the same with property taxes (up $41 million), insurance premium taxes (high by $10 million) and fuel taxes (growing by $2 million).
In fact, in of all the government's taxation sources, Hansen anticipates a decline in revenues from just four: corporate income tax, corporation capital tax, tobacco tax and property transfer tax.
Overall, Hansen claims that the provincial treasury will receive an additional $357 million next year compared to the revised forecast for the current year.
The only rational explanation for this fantastical result is that, contrary to all available and empirical evidence, Gordon Campbell, Colin Hansen and the BC Liberals believe that the worst of the current global economic downturn is behind us! We're through the rough patch, and things only can improve from here on out.
Or, at least until the May 12 provincial general election is over.
Mysterious health savings
Like the revenue side of the provincial ledger, the expenditure side, too, has impossible-to-believe numbers.
Take Health, where Hansen believes the BC Liberals can somehow find "further efficiencies" of $125 million in the next fiscal year, and then another $250 million in the year after. In that latter year, of course, the BC Liberals promise to "balance" the provincial budget, and as Hansen's fiscal plan makes clear, finding $250 million in savings is crucial to attaining that goal.
Where will those savings be found? No one knows.
But there are a few clues as to how difficult it might be. The budget and fiscal plan also reveals that already B.C.'s regional health authorities have identified "annual spending pressures" of 3.5 per cent in their provincial transfers. How those diametrically opposite objectives -- managing upward pressures and obtaining downward efficiencies -- will be achieved is a mystery yet to be solved.
Spending plans for two of the next-largest social service departments, Housing and Social Development, and Children and Family Development are equally suspect.
Income Assistance expenditures are expected -- not surprisingly, given the economic downturn -- to rise by $60.8 million, but closer examination shows that nearly all of that amount is for 'temporary assistance.' Meanwhile, disability and supplementary assistance get a combined lift of just $5.6 million, or about one-half of one per cent.
And even as more families are distressed by deteriorating economic conditions, the Ministry of Children and Family Development gets a budget lift of just $14 million, or about one per cent.
Are these numbers realistic?
Union wage increases? Never mind
And while Hansen's fiscal plan acknowledges that numerous collective labour agreements between Victoria and public sector unions are set to expire at the end of 2009/10, the budget provides no provision for salary or benefit increases. It looms as one of the biggest impediments for the BC Liberals getting to their balanced budget in 2011/12, but this year's fiscal plan offers no clue as to how the issue will be resolved.
Finally, it is impossible to ascertain in Hansen's budget how much B.C. taxpayers will spend in the coming fiscal year on the 2010 Olympics (or afterward), both for the much-discussed security component, and the operational contingencies. A few million dollars or several hundreds of millions -- who knows? If Campbell or Hansen have any idea as to the final tab, they're not saying, and neither is this year's budget.
A billion dollars off, at least
All in all, instead of the $495 million that the BC Liberals acknowledge as the shortfall for the coming fiscal period, a more-accurate budgetary-deficit would be from $1 billion to $1.5 billion.
And that would be prior to the Forecast Allowance, a provision found in every provincial budget over the last decade -- except this year. At a time of historic economic uncertainty, Campbell and Hansen arbitrarily removed one of the touted "levels of prudence" found in each B.C. budget since the turn of the century.
Over the last few years, the Forecast Allowance has ranged from $750 million to $850 million. Add that to what is probably the actual budgetary shortfall, and you get a total projected deficit of about $2 billion, or even more.
But this is B.C., and we have an election fast-approaching. And so the Campbell government pushes-up revenues, tamps-down expenditures, and removes the Forecast Allowance from budgetary planning. Voila! The deficit is one-quarter or one-fifth its actual size.
Another fudge-it budget, you say? It's worse than that. This fictional fairy-tale might better be described as Toxic Fudge.
Related Tyee stories:
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- BC Then, Ottawa Now: Who's Crazier?Province's wild political history offers context for current crisis.
- Campbell Misled Public on NDP FinancesIn 2001 the incoming premier called NDP finances "worse than we anticipated." His briefing binders, gained by The Tyee through an FOI, told him the opposite.
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RickW
2 years ago
http://www.theglobeandmail.co
http://tinyurl.com/aeal9c
The budget did nothing to address this simple fact -- not to mention that BC has virtually NO income-generating base, outside of the proverbial "hewers of wood" one.
But, as an aside, since when are petroleum and forest products considered "manufacturing"? I suppose that, if the numbers actually factored out oil and wood exports, the pundits would have to expose Canada's "manufacturing" base for the farce it is.
And this BC government has done nothing to encourage anything other than a "chop it down, dig it up, pump it out, until it's all gone" mentality. Easier to do that than to think (which only hurts one's head).
Luke Skywalker
2 years ago
Chris Trumpy...
From a recent Keith Baldrey column:
I'm sure looking forward to Chris Trumpy's take on this budget.
Luke Skywalker
2 years ago
Chris Trumpy... Signing Off... Found It...
An exerpt from page 1:
http://www.bcbudget.gov.bc.ca/2009/bfp/2009_Budget_Fiscal_Plan.pdf
Well, it looks like Chris Trumpy has signed off on the budget without any reservations.
DPL
2 years ago
Hansons predictions really
Hansons predictions really don't mean much. An election in a very few months means a new budget no matter which side wins. He can say what ever he wants to get through the election. This governments predictions have never even been close before so why do we expect them to be correct now?
Will McMartin
2 years ago
Luke
You don't have to wait for Chris Trumpy's letter.... it's here, in the Budget and Fiscal Plan, on p. 7:
http://www.bcbudget.gov.bc.ca/2009/bfp/2009_Budget_Fiscal_Plan.pdf
Read where Trumpy states, "Unlike recent years, there are no forecast allowances [for any of the next 3 years!] included in this fiscal plan and government will be managing risks to the fiscal plan through expenditure management...."
Neat, eh? And then, if you like, you can read the "Material Assumptions" on pp. 140-148. Please let us know if you think those assumptions are realistic.
For example, what do you think of the Children and Family Development assumption of a decline in the number of children-in-care in a worsening economy?
Will
Grumpy
2 years ago
Remember Luke Skywalker..........
.......is really Gordon Campbell in drag. Are they all on cocaine in Victoria? In Lotus-land, we all smoke dope, don't worry be happy..........the drug dealers and gangsters are the ones who really run the show in BC.
quarry bay
2 years ago
Can you say GOTCHA.......
The only part of the forcast I believe is BC Hydro projections, 2 tier hydro and the base rate has been raised.
No wonder Hansen and the entire Campbell clan looked nervous.
Yes indeed Mr. McMartin.
And just how big will the SUPPLIMENTAL budget be this year?
I am guessing 1.4 billion dollars.
Any ideas Mr. McMartin?
quarry bay
2 years ago
A fudge it budget....
is to simple,this is a complete joke.
This is the last straw for Gordon Campbell.
This story is going to finish Campbell.
Although he is already done,I suggest that Hansen resign along with Von Dongen and Oppall, take Bond with them as well.
Everybody send this story to every media outlet in the province.
realisticman
2 years ago
Will
Are you not sympathetic to government spending to help working families? Would you side with the Taxpayer's Federation and decry government spending? You must have been impressed with the infrastructure spending, which will create thousands of jobs and stimulate substantial economic activity. Budget 2009 will invest almost 14 billion dollars in infrastructure projects in every region of British Columbia.
This is a good budget for all BC. Increased Health Care and Education spending is good for society.
Some neocons will not like this budget but it's good for the province and good for all regions of BC.
You mention that there's no money earmarked for future labour contracts. Did you forget that all public sector unions enthusiastically signed on for massive wage increases in the multi-billion dollar agreements bought forward by Carole Taylor just a couple of years ago? This is why we've had this long stretch of labour peace.
There's also a number of credits for the rural towns Will.
Something for everyone to like.
As Barak Obama said today; "And, you know, one of the things that I think has been striking about Canada is that in the midst of this enormous economic crisis, I think Canada has shown itself to be a pretty good manager of the financial system in the economy in ways that we haven't always been here in the United States."
realisticman
2 years ago
Specifically...
Over the next three years, health-care funding will increase by 4.8 billion dollars. By 2011/12, total provincial health spending will be 17.5 billion dollars - an increase of 65 per cent since 2001.
The budget maintains funding for kindergarten to Grade 12 education, resulting in per-student funding of 8,242 dollars, the highest level in B.C. history. The budget invests 228 million dollars over three years in post-secondary education to enhance access to institutions, expand health education programs, and fulfil the commitment to increase the number of trained physicians in B.C.
Don't listen the neocons that don't want this spending. This is the time when government must help these vital areas, health-care and education.
RickW
2 years ago
R/M old man....
This government has been spending like the proverbial drunken sailor for the last 7 years, and all it's accomplished is the devastation of the forest sector and the fishery.
Now it will spend yet more and devastate what next?
Top down spending doesn't work. That;s been demonstrated time and again.
realisticman
2 years ago
RickW
We've had massive economic growth, expansion of health-care, labour peace and the lowest unemployment for 30 years. I'm surprised that you would be against these expenditures, particularly when the world is in financial crisis, that will expand and maintain our helth-care services, create education for more nurses and physicians and epand funding for k-12 and college education. As well as create work for many thousands of families in the massive infrastructure expenditures.
Are you now a neocon that wants less government spending too?
quarry bay
2 years ago
Rman
Don`t you get it,Will McMartin isn`t talking about the spending,he is talking about RIDICULOUS REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS.
He is talking about olympic security.
All these projections are based on what?
Almost every revenue source will be falling in a recession,not rising,perhaps you should read the story.
A resource based economy with world prices flat,with rising unemployment,and a warning of a deep recession and Hansen has all the revenue sources rising?
Go ahead Rman,you will be voting for Campbell who is a proven liar and lawbreaker.
How do you convince someone not to vote for Campbell and the BC Liberals when they already know he is a LIAR and proven LAWBREAKER?
moodyguy
2 years ago
unbelievable
Thank you Will:
The reported numbers did not add up but I did not have time to look at the documents myself. I will have a close look. My concern is that, given a reduction in tax a few years ago which produced record deficits which were followed by revenue growth generated by a huge worldwide boom. Now that the Boom is gone, and we have been experiencing going debt. (not deficits but financing is happening not counting BC Ferries debt and others that we don't know)do we now have a significant structural deficit??
Frank
2 years ago
A fudge-it budget
No doubt Help BC is already on the lookout for a good lawyer to take Campbell to court over this. After all they claimed to be non-partisan when they went after Glen Clark for far less than this.
For a better world
2 years ago
A real fudget budget
During the last eight years, the current Liberal (Socred) regime operated on the philosophy that “BS baffles brains”. Their latest budget is no different. Gordon Campbell and Colin Hansen have been deceitful since the beginning of their term of power, and not surprisingly they continue to have the basic support of mainstream media.
Carol Taylor knew when to bail. That has been her modus operandi. Since she entered public life, her astute timing of when to exit has been perfect, she comes out smelling like a rose, and then goes on to the next generous publicly funded freebee.
We are now left with the residual scam artists who carry on giving away the assets of the Province to their business associates. Thank goodness we do not have the rhetoric of Farrell-Collins dominating air waves, although the BC Rail scam is still smoking lightly after all these years.
Campbell and his ilk will covey to the public that conditions are not so bad and there will be limited cuts to civil services, but as soon as they are re-elected they will slash and burn more basic services. This will give them the opportunity to privatize even more government obligations to their business cohorts.
The previous NDP government was hammered, by the mainstream media, for their alleged fudget budget. This budget has greater fudge in both magnitude and non benefits.
If you can filter the misinformation, you know Campbell and his entourage already slashed basic social services to support Olympics funding……..and that was when the provincial economy was upbeat. As all previous Olympics have been over budget this one is no different, but until recently (as expected by many wary observers) the overruns are now rearing their ugly heads.
quarry bay
2 years ago
What does ........
Michael Smyth(Province newspaper columnist)have to say......
Mr. Smyth is totaly disgusted but not for the reasons you think.
A good read.....
http://www2.canada.com/theprovince/columnists/story.html?id=c58af530-498c-4a98-b280-d4b6a9e3a39c
Yes, Campbell has priorities,fattening his freinds wallets.
quarry bay
2 years ago
And not to be........
outdone, I think people should read what Vaughn Palmer has to say.
Lets just say that Vaughn was being cautiously pessamistic.
http://www2.canada.com/vancouversun/columnists/story.htnl?id=0e90ba6e-a8c5-47d5-a291-458be0912cda&p
quarry bay
2 years ago
Messed up the link
Here is the link to the Vaughn Palmer column on the TOXIC BUDGET
http://www2.canada.com/vancouversun/columnists/story.html?id=0e90ba6e-a8c5-47d5-a291-458be0912cda
jimmy_laroux
2 years ago
GREAT ARTICLE!
British Columbians drowning their sorrows?
Future income tax rate increase?
Followed by a magical recovery the year after :)
Here is a great article about the “optimism” of non-academic economists.
http://www.straight.com/article-200862/federal-budget-based-crystal-ball-ubc-professor
Not that BC’s economy won’t recover the following year. But it’s just generally agreed that these long-term macroeconomic predictions are pretty much worthless.
jimmy_laroux
2 years ago
SURPLUS
That depends on how you define deficit. In the literal sense, surplus means “an excess of income over expenditures in a given period.” But in the technical sense in which it is used in GAAP,
http://www.bcbudget.gov.bc.ca/2009/bfp/2009_Budget_Fiscal_Plan.pdf
So that the BC provincial debt will increase much more than just than just 495 million $ in 2009/10. These are the estimates, using the Hansen’s unreasonably optimistic income projections, of the total provincial debt (in millions of dollars) over the next four fiscal years:
2007/08 -- 34,627
2008/09 -- 37,487
2009/10 -- 40,471
2010/11 -- 44,203
2011/12 -- 47,215
This amounts to a projected increase of roughly 13 billion dollars over 4 years. Of course this does not include debt hidden in P3s.
nightbloom
2 years ago
"BC has virtually NO
"BC has virtually NO income-generating base, outside of the proverbial "hewers of wood" one."
You've got your multi-billion dollar drug trade.
Grumpy
2 years ago
In your dreams.
Quote:
"We've had massive economic growth, expansion of health-care, labour peace and the lowest unemployment for 30 years."
Most of the economic growth is on paper - house prices etc. and the last few months have blown this out of the water. Our funny accounting in BC makes believe we have had huge growth, in reality we are just average.
Unemployment is counted on those receiving benefits, this doesn't include those who are not working or on welfare, as well it doesn't include the thousands of self employed people whose businesses have collapsed and do not receive any benefits at all.
It's why the drug trade is such an attraction to people in BC, at least one has the chance to make real money and what the hell, we all gotta go sometime!
realisticman
2 years ago
Your dreams come true
Estimates are just that but boosts to health-care and education spending, as well as preservation of social spending is going over well. It's what people want in times of worldwide uncertainty.
Very important:
http://solosong.net/wish.html
Essential:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHPOzQzk9Qo
seth
2 years ago
hansens 2nd fudget
The mainstream media has chosen to ignore the fact that Hansen's last pre-election budget was also a fudget.
The Dominion Bond Rating Agency stated that the actual budget was a 1 billion dollar deficit not a 1 billion surplus. Slick accounting changes allowed him to make his frivolous claim.
http://thetyee.ca/Views/2005/09/26/BizBCLibs/
Also missing from the budget is any accounting for the 100 billion or so in PPP commitments. These would normally show up as a 100 billion dollar increase in debt but with new slick accounting will be paid as they occur.
rac
2 years ago
Not Green Either
It is also not green at all. Way to much on roads and not enough on transit and cycling
Road funding capital funding over 3 years amounts to $1,665 million while transit funding is only $517 million (24% of the total). Cycling is a mere $17 million (.77%) over three years.
A carbon tax will not work that well unless people have improved options like transit and cycling so they are not forced to drive.
puppyg
2 years ago
grow-op industry
Nightbloom is on it. With a grow-op in every basement, we can grow our way out of this crisis.
Think Mahatma Gandhi. Thinking spinning wheels spinning cloth in every home in the nation. We are saved!
realisticman
2 years ago
Quite Green Too
Don't worry rac, business groups wanted the gas tax canceled but Gordon Campbell insisted on keeping the tax. Environmental groups are pleased. A large proportion of the roads budget is for the new bridge, which is needed so that the buses can cross the river there and for the Gateway project which will get the trucks moving and not idling on our smaller roads; ergo, less pollution.
Skeena Fisherman
2 years ago
Education spending for K-12
Realisticman: Maintaining funding for public schools will do nothing for the education of these students in spite of the cost per student. The current education budget requires an additional $135 million just to meet cost shortfalls in this province according to the Centre for Civic Governance. With increased hydro prices, the increase in the carbon tax and other labour related costs (other than teacher salaries)our school districts are going to have to close more schools, overload more classrooms and lay off more staff to meet a predicted increased shortfall. When the Liberals made it illegal for school districts to run a deficit budget they chopped off educators at the knees. Now they plan to take the whole leg and maybe an arm or two. If they can change the law to allow the government to run a deficit maybe they should do the same for the school districts as well.
jimmy_laroux
2 years ago
@seth
I doubt that P3 debt is even 10% of this, probably less.
jimmy_laroux
2 years ago
@realisticman
The Ministry of Finance seems to disagree.
http://www.bcbudget.gov.bc.ca/2009/bfp/2009_Budget_Fiscal_Plan.pdf
Wrong again. This highway will encourage sprawl (i.e. auto-dependent housing) in the Fraser Valley, which will, in the long run, dramatically increase GHG emissions. And since so much money is blown on highways, transit funding will have to take a back seat (pun intended).
realisticman
2 years ago
Skeena you swallowed the Bait!
Along with the hook! The Centre for Civic Governance is under the Columbia Institute umbrella. Don't believe a word of it. This is entirely an operation funded by workers who pay their dues to the union man and they are completely beholden to the NDP. What do you expect them to say?
realisticman
2 years ago
jacques
Gateway is designed to route trucks from the Trans Can to the Tsawassen port and south on Hwy 99. Can't see sprawl encouraged. I guess it might happen in a couple of pockets but most of Vancouver, including East Vancouver, don't want higher buildings and more density, so the only alternative is to go out to cheaper land.
jimmy_laroux
2 years ago
@realisticman
Wrong yet again. This is just a part of the "Gateway Program".
It includes the Port Mann Bridge and Highway 1 widening, the South Fraser Perimeter Road, Pitt River Bridge and North Fraser Perimeter Road.
http://www.gatewayprogram.bc.ca/
Yikes. Apparently there's a whole lot you don't see. Easier access to land at the edge of the city, coupled with a weakened ALR, results in sprawl.
In the very sentence before this you write that sprawl won't be encouraged, and now you write sprawl will be encouraged. Wow.
If by "a couple of pockets" you mean Surrey, Delta, Langley, Maple Ridge, and Abbotsford, then I agree.
As for "higher buildings" not wanted in Vancouver, I seem to recall the odd condo getting built recently in Greater Vancouver. Maybe you heard about that?
realisticman
2 years ago
Aren't we lucky
The west of Canada is the best place to be.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/183670
realisticman
2 years ago
Jimmy
Sure, condos downtown but try and get development approval for higher buildings in other areas than the peninsula for residential housing. It'll be a fight.
Huge swaths of Vancouver is zone single-family.
G West
2 years ago
Chris Trumpy
I'll be much more interested in what Chris Trumpy has to say when and if he's called as a wittness in the Basi, Virk BC Rail trial.
As for his bona fides as a financial officer, please, give me a break, he was appointed deputy minister of finance and Secretary to Treasury Board on July 9 2007.
jimmy_laroux
2 years ago
@realisticman
This is a joke, right?
http://tinyurl.com/aeatlx
jimmy_laroux
2 years ago
@realisticman
I agree that zoning should be far more flexible in Greater Vancouver (especially in the City of Vancouver), but this doesn't in any way bear on my point about the Gateway Program causing sprawl. It will cause sprawl, no question.
quarry bay
2 years ago
Seems like nobody believes.....
The budget forcast revenues,what I find hilarious and scary is...
The debt was 30 billion when Campbell took over in 2001/ by 2011 the debt is to balloon to almost 50 billion dollars(not counting P3s or power contracts)yet Hansen and Campbell claim they have reduced debt?
Operating debt or not,I guess Hansen learned some "old book-keeping tricks from Accenture"
This will leak out,the quiet rumblings are getting louder,soon it will roar.
Even this op-ed piece in the Sun disagrees!
http://tinyurl.com/bstq86
Rman,cmon man! I criticized the NDP of the past,for once,just honest,admit it,the budget deserves the pulitzer prize for fiction,at least qualify your answers,you could say something like this......
Well maybe if everything goes right and the recession ends next week it could possibly be a good forecast,but from what I see I find it doubtful,but who knows for sure.
That is a plausible answere Rman,so my question to you RMAN is......
Who are trying convince? --Yourself?
realisticman
2 years ago
Economic predictions are a waste of energy
Who knows? Gigantic companies pay people gigantic salaries to predict the future and all they can do is plot it, try and throw in some variables but ultimately the phenomenon called the herd mentality renders it all just a guess.
This one could take some time to turn around but I'm glad I live here, I could live elsewhere if I thought it was better there but I'm optimistic. That's my contribution to the herd.
quarry bay
2 years ago
Here are some forecast......
numbers that will hurt BC and at the same time do nothing for the enviroment.
If Campbell was concerned about the economy he would deal with these issues
http://www.bclocalnews.com/surrey_area/surreyleader/opinion/letters/39881344.html
quarry bay
2 years ago
screwed up the above link
People will let Campbell know on may 12
http://www.bclocalnews.com/surrey_area/surreyleader/opinion/letters/39381344.html
G West
2 years ago
Gigantic salaries
Are clearly no substitute for morality, ethics and truth telling.
Anyone who thinks big bucks have any affinity for the truth or for accurate predictive power simply hasn't been paying attention.
And CEO Campbell only pays attention to his own mirror image.
sirjohna
2 years ago
hypocrites
today the tyee'ers are urging us to read smythe and palmer, tomorrow they'll be bleating that they're corporate lackeys shilling for canworst global canwest goebbels. again i say: what a bloody joke!
quarry bay
2 years ago
Sir Johna
Hey Buddy
"There is none so blind as those who refuse to see"
What,you can`t take the fact that even Campbells supporters are in disgust?
It is called ethical reporting, I read many opinion pieces, some I agree with,some not,even Les Leyne in todays Victoria times is sceptical of Hansens forecasts.
Perhaps Sir Johna you think the Campbell GAG LAW didn`t go far enough,maybe media and people should be banned from speaking period?
Don`t worry SJ, Bill Good and Christie Clark will never say a discouraging word.
Anyways,nice to have your input,you have a way of explaining the LIBERAL MINDSET and thought processes.
Your insight is fascinating,on so many levels.
Your freind Quarry bay
quarry bay
2 years ago
Sir Johna
Perhaps Wif Hanni of the BC Conservative party is more to your liking?
The BC Conservative party got 6% of the vote in the BC bi-elections and I suspect they will be getting 10% of the vote in the May 12/ election,disenfranchised Campbell supporters are turning to the BC Conservatives.
Here is their web site link,have a read,perhaps you will like their platform.
http://www.conservativesbc.com/
Luke Skywalker
2 years ago
Will McMartin...
Good point. But I was under the impression that "forecast allowances" were additional "built-in" budget items when the budget was already in forecast surplus position, but not in forecast deficit position.
Just look at a couple of key forecasts as a test in terms of whether they are either on the liberal or conservative side.
1. GDP: -0.9%
As Vaughn Palmer succinctly stated in his column today:
Compare that to the latest revision by the Independent Forecasting Council indicating negative growth at a slightly lesser level of -0.3%.
2. Natural Gas Prices/Royalty Revenue:
BC's budgeted natural gas price estimates for fiscal year 2008/09 was pegged at $5.65Cdn/GJ. Alberta in its same fiscal year pegged same at $6.75Cdn/GJ. That's over $1.00 more in Alberta, which would represent ~ another $300 million+ in BC coffers at that estimate.
For 2009/10, BC has pegged the price at $5.87Cdn/GJ.
From those two tests, I gather that Vaughn is correct in ascertaining that the finance Ministry tends to "lowball" its estimates as we've seen over the past few years.
That said, since October, 2008 forecasting is a bit of a crap shoot - too many uncertainties still swirling around.
freebear
2 years ago
Snake Oil anyone?
No wonder they have to keep upping the salaries of MLAs and MPs to attract better (re: smarter) politicians-the current ones are idiots!
Its a good thing they do not have a license to print money!
Fish-counter
2 years ago
The budget again ignores the biggest industry in the province
Marijuana grow-ops.
I do not touch the stuff, but I do believe it is time to tax it. Working away at my usual fish-counting job today, I ran into yet another crowd of high schoolers on a spare break. They were enjyong the fresh air, which is good for them, and passing round a fat one, which is not. I do not judge these kids (they could be up to much worse things) and I sure do not want to make them criminals. They should be paying taxes when they buy their weed. Maybe they could buy it at the liquor store. It just sounds right to me and the hell with the Americans.
Rod Smelser
2 years ago
Why will Gateway increase pollution?
jimmy_laroux
Wrong again. This highway will encourage sprawl (i.e. auto-dependent housing) in the Fraser Valley, which will, in the long run, dramatically increase GHG emissions. And since so much money is blown on highways, transit funding will have to take a back seat (pun intended).
How is the Port Mann-Highway 1 project, or other elements of Gateway going to "encourage sprawl"? Will the Golden Ears and Pitt River Bridges, now nearing completion, encourage sprawl. What about a replacement for the Patullo Bridge? The municipalities which surround Hwy 1, from Burnaby to Langley, have all said that they will not be changing their OCPs if these projects are built, so where it the additional "sprawl" to be located, except on lands already designated for development?
If transit were improved, would that not allow for additional housing and population in these areas as well, and if so, would that consitute sprawl or not?
How would the completion of these projects increase GHGs or other pollution for a given volume of traffic? And if the argument is that a wider road magically encourages more traffic, how does it do so, except by decreasing travel times which is an economic and social benefit.
Surely everyone must realize that the reflexive opposition to these projects, all of which originates in the Cities of Vancouver and Burnaby, among their politicians, bureaucrats, and property owners, has to do with a desire to maintain high residential property prices (untaxed capital gains) and to prevent competition in the placement of new industrial and commercial properties which these municipalities rely on to keep the residential tax burden at tolerable levels despite extremely high housing prices.
notamused
2 years ago
@realisticman re post-secondary $
If you take the time to read the service plan for the Ministry of Advanced Ed, you'll see that the govt is not putting an additional penny into post-secondary but is rather counting on increased tuition revenue of more than $500 million per year over the next three years (and then only spending $228 million of this on education). This is just another good example to illustrate McMartin's argument that the govt is making egregiously optimistic predictions on the revenue side.
quarry bay
2 years ago
Luke your spinning Luke......
Wrong Luke, Vaughn Palmer states that the forecasters wanted to downgrade the forecasts some more but......
Here is the statement
"Too late,came the answer from the ministry of finance,not that the goverment doubted the economy was sliding into recession,but the budget prepatations were too far advanced for one more substantial reveision"
Talk about selective disecting of a column,you left out the most telling piece in Vaughn`s column.
Your losing your touch or what.
Just be honest Luke.
"it`s a tangled web we weave when first we practice to decieve"
Your new theme song Luke?
sirjohna
2 years ago
vaughn palmer, the left's
vaughn palmer, the left's newest hero.
until he disagrees with them...
jimmy_laroux
2 years ago
@ Luke Skywalker
Who's to say they're lowballing? Just because they have in the past means nothing. Nobody knows how bad the recession will be, least of all the Economic Forecast Council.
The GDP growth estimate has been dropping monthly. Last February it was 2.4%, then it was ~1.5% last September, then 0.6% a month ago, now -0.3%. Maybe Hansen just extrapolating. Remember that not so long ago Campbell and Hansen said BC wasn't even going to have a deficit this year:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2008/10/20/bc-campbell-economic-statement.html
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2008/11/24/bc-november-economic-update.html
How quickly the economy can change, eh? One housing bubble bursting here, one global commodities price collapse there, and before you know it your in a recession.
In regards to their estimates, according to Jon Kesselman, SFU Professor in economics ...
http://www.straight.com/article-200862/federal-budget-based-crystal-ball-ubc-professor
So for example, Helmut Pastrick (on the forecast council) made the prediction this time last year that
http://www.cucbc.com/newsandevents/displayjob.php?sp=35&type=SB&jid=11
Yikes!
As for the comparison between BC's natural gas price estimates and Alberta's, so what? Perhaps Alberta's Finance Minister is even more "optimistic" than BC's.
sunshine coast girl
2 years ago
These guys will say anything...
absolutely anything. They have no pride, no shame, no compassion. They lowball everything they tell us and when they get caught they whine and snivel and beg for forgiveness and tell us that no one could possibly have known that it would end up costing THAT much more.
Please, please, please!!! Has everyone finally seen and heard enough from these liars?
Rod Smelser
2 years ago
Another all-new PAB tactic
Luke Skywalker
From a recent Keith Baldrey column:
Quote:
[Chris Trumpy] is one of the most respected, talented and longest serving of all of B.C.'s civil servants. ...
Yesterday I noticed a new PAB strategy, providing links to actual government documents, as opposed to the usual recitation of anti-labour smear lines.
Today, a second innovation, using senior public servants as "human shields".
Luke Skywalker
2 years ago
quarry bay... Rod Smelser...
quarry bay:
At least put everything into its proper context.
The Independent Forecasting Council had an earlier estimate of 0% GDP growth. Your Vaughn Palmer reference is the down-grade to -0.3% GDP by the same council.
The actual budget forecast is even lower at -0.9%.
Rod Smelser:
It ain't. The City of Vancouver's population represents ~27% of the Metro. Richmond, Delta, Surrey, the Tri-Cities, Ridge Meadows, Langley, Abbotsford, Chilliwack have seen substantial residential development over the decades without any new highway upgrades.
And that's why it's incredibly frustrating and time-consuming travelling in the Metro.
Currently, BC MoT estimates that ~40% of Port Mann Bridge traffic has points of origin/destination in the Surrey/Tri-Cities area.
Ergo the 10-lane express collector set-up for the new PMB. Six express lanes for through traffic and 4-collector lanes for the on/off bridgehead traffic.
As Mike Harcourt said last year regarding adding capacity to the PMB: "The horses have already left the barn door."
jimmy_laroux
2 years ago
@ Rod Smelser
It's not obvious? These highways will allow easier automobile access to land at the edge of the city. This, in addition to lax zoning and cheap land to build on, results in sprawl.
Yes. They already are. Have you been to Maple Ridge recently?
Hmm... Not sure.
Even if this is true, plans can easily be changed. And some of the land might not be developed without highways. But anyway, if you believe that no new housing will be built as a result, I've got a bridge for you to buy.
Yes.
No.
I don't think that it would. I certainly never wrote that it would.
Not magic, sadly all too real. Changes in land use, in particular auto-oriented development, and induced demand all cause traffic volumes to rise.
Surely everyone everyone must realize that the reflexive support for these projects, all of which originates in the Cities of Surrey and Langley, among their politicians, bureaucrats, and property owners, has to do with a desire to maintain increase the value of land which may be developed and increase prices of existing residential property.
See what I did there?
That being said, not all Vancouverites want higher property values.
Vancouver is competing for industrial development? Vancouver is developing much of it's industrial land for condos. And as for commercial properties, I'm not sure that there are all that many businesses that Vancouver and Langley are fighting over.
But any way, your argument (if it can so generously be called this) ignores the obvious environmental and land-use impacts of auto-oriented development. And these impacts are the important issues in regards the Gateway Program.
quarry bay
2 years ago
A very insightful..........
Read by Charlie Smith.
He knows the numbers,big trouble for Campbell in the GVRD
http://www.straight.com/article-201846/why-gordon-campbell-and-colin-hansen-turned-their-backs-arts?
Luke,as to the port mann bridge,only a fool would go-ahead with that project before the golden ears bridge opens,who knows how it will effect traffic flow,maybe the need won`t be there,there will be thousands not using the port mann,and with toll concessionaires needing big traffic to make profits,if the traffic flow isn`t there then port mann bridge users will have a gun put to their heads to make up for toll shortages.
sirjohna
2 years ago
...and only a foolish
...and only a foolish politician would oppose the port mann project. do you realize how many votes cross that bridge every single day?
what is carole who? doing?
quarry bay
2 years ago
Sir Johna......
2000.00 per year or more exiting peoples pockets with the tolls,chump change? I don`t think so,your reading the polls wrong, 65% don`t want a toll bridge.
And no-one is against a port mann project but not this, 350 million dollars to knock down a bridge that has 60 years left in it.
How old is the putella bridge? It was built in the 1930s
The lions gate bridge is just as old.
The port mann had a 70 million dollar upgrade in 2000-2001--The engineers won awards,they stated the bridge is good for 60 plus years.
So you wait until the golden ears bridge is completed and go from there.With the data of traffic flow we can decide as to twinning the port mann or maybe a new big bridge,but you don`t put the cart before the horse.
And in case you haven`t noticed SJ.......
there are votes everywhere,Burnaby,Surrey,Vancouver and the rest of the province.
Great argument Sir Johna,always a rush debating you.One day I might win an argument with you.
quarry bay
2 years ago
Sir Johna........
To answere your second question.......
"what is carole who? doing?"
She is working on her election night victory speech.
G West
2 years ago
Rod
Have you seen Jessica's latest encomium?
No shortage of fulsom praise for her own efforts, that's for sure.
If you're a civil servant I expect you'll have gotten a copy direct to your in-box...if not, you can check it out at Sean Holman's place.
http://www.publiceyeonline.com/archives/003571.html#more
RickW
2 years ago
sunshine coast girl
Evidently not, if you read what the likes of SJA, LSW, R-Man, WL post.............
Will McMartin
2 years ago
Luke Skywalker...
You wrote... "I was under the impression that "forecast allowances" were additional "built-in" budget items when the budget was already in forecast surplus position, but not in forecast deficit position."
Really, Luke? Do you mean that fiscal prudence and discipline are needed only during good economic times, when the cash is cascading into the provincial treasury, and completely unnecessary during tough economic times? You're smarter than that.
Besides, why did the BC Liberals use forecast allowances in 2001/02, 2002/03 and 2003/04 when they were wracking up enormous deficits?
Could it be because those were post-election years and they didn't really care what voters thought of budgetary shortfalls?
Now, of course, the Campbell Libs will soon face the electorate, and want to be seen as tough economic managers presiding over a tiny deficit while other jurisdictions are overflowing with red ink.
Where have we seen this trick before? Oh, yeah, it was here in B.C. with the Socreds in 1991 and then again with the NDP in 1996. Some things never change, eh?
Will
quarry bay
2 years ago
Just a little.........
Sidenote,in Colin Hansen`s budget,the BC Liberals claim to have found 1.9 billion over 3 years in waste,fat,inefficiencies,hmmmmm.....
Makes me think and wonder how they do dat,I mean Gordon Campbell talks about being a mean lean goverment,but apparently the Gordon Campbell has been wasting ......
600 million dollars a year in fat,who would of thought that,Hansen states all service levels will be maintained,well isn`t that something.
So if the Campbell goverment can run goverment for 600 million a year less while maintaining service levels means that the ........
Gordon Campbell is/was the most inefficient goverment in BC history,it meand Gordon Campbell has overspent 2 billion dollars in the last few years.
Excellent,Colin Hansen has conceded (stated) that there is 600 million dollars minimum of waste each year with the Campbell goverment!
Dan the socialist
2 years ago
Isn't Hanson going to have
Isn't Hanson going to have another Budget in the fall?
We will see more cuts in that one to various social programmes as it is after the election and will be the 'real' budget.
Dam the NDP for not having a better leader. Too bad Carole James would not step down now so the NDP can pick a better competent leader.
The NDP will be lucky to win 25 seats come May. It pains me to say that as a life long Socialist-Marxist but Carole James does not cut it.
quarry bay
2 years ago
Not a very good week for ......
Gordon Campbell, ho-hum-ho-hum,another day another court case,and yes it was another victory for the people of BC,all the people.
This goverment has been losing in the courts over and over again,today is no exception,I wonder how this victory will effect the......
The much touted "New relationship with first nations"
http://www.timescolonist.com/Technology/First+Nations+court+fight+over+major+power+projects+/1303316/story.html
(Dan the socialist),not too be rude but,almost every thread you tell all the readers how terrible Carole James and you won`t be voting for her,GOOD ON YOU.
Some men won`t vote for a female but what amazes me is..........
You will spoil your vote,in other words,you will help elect Gordon Campbell,we will look forward to your vote,maybe 8 years 3 months from now we will see you at the polls,hopefully the next leader is up your high ethical standards,you know,like Gordon Campbell.
Quarry bay
Luke Skywalker
2 years ago
Will McMartin...
Point well taken and understood.
As an aside, the BC portion of the Olympic security budget seems to be situate within Table 1.23 regarding "$856 million" of "unallocated contingencies" regarding the 2010 Olympics. Seems like everyone in the media has missed that point.
PS. Enjoyed your weekly (bi-weekly?) reports during the 1996 election inclusive of polling and analysis. Will never forget your line to the effect that "Glen Clark is akin to a speeding freight train that appears unstoppable". ;)
SharingIsGood
2 years ago
Doubts about Dan
Dan the Socialist,
When one votes for the NDP it is a vote for the party. When one votes for the Liberals, it is a vote for Gordon Campbell. Campbell's party is Campbell-centric. The NDP is citizen-centric. Yes, James is the leader and you find her weak, but she has proven in the past that she is a team player and that she will take a team approach.
You must recognise that CanWest-Global and CTV are big business and they have always been soft on Campbell. They love the millions of BC taxpayer's dollars he spends on the Main Stream Media. Campbell promotes their hard-right business models. The MSM do little to publish/broadcast anything James has to say. They do not give her even a small fraction of the time they have always given to Campbell. Baldry, Good, Darling, Michael Campbell (Gordon's brother) are just a few of the newscasters I see and hear on TV and radio that cheer for the Liberals and sneer at the NDP. These people are far from impartial; they are ultra right-wing suck-ups. Even with the world economy in the toilet because of neo-liberal thinking, they refuse to give up the Gordon is der good Fuhrer mantra.
Certainly, nothing can be as bad as drunk with power Campbell running the ship. Campbell is nothing more than a silver-tongued BC version of George Bush. He speaks well, but all of his actions show that he is only out for himself and his neo-Liberal Campaign-donating pals. Better to give what is left of the province over to the NDP: one more term with Campbell at the helm will mean there will be nothing left for good hard-working British Columbians. I believe that anyone who truly cares for their fellow British Columbians can easily see that Carole James has more of their needs in mind than Gordon Campbell. Besides, she will have a stong cabinet to back her up.
Click here to see what the NDP stands for verses the Campbell Liberals:
http://www.bcndp.ca/why-ndp/compare
brg61
2 years ago
The Trap Has Been Set.
The deficit estimates in the budget are wrong. The premier and his cabinet know this. Thier biggest backers in the business community know as well. The people in mainsrteam media wont challenge the premier or finance minister for various reasons, including being fired.
For fifty years voters in B.C. opted for a right of centre party during a recession fearing the NDP will make things worse. BCliberals have set the trap and thier candidates have the talking points.
It will work. The polls reflect this early and history shows it works. The NDP hasn't
hinted an economic strategy is being developed. If they don't offer a reasonable fiscal policy soon the result of May 12 is a third term, and more seats delivered by a low turn-out of voters.
The budget is a joke. The next four years however, won't be funny.
sirjohna
2 years ago
here's the latest mustel:
here's the latest mustel:
libs - 51%
ndp - 36%
greens - who cares?
3 months tomorrow gordo will be heralding another four years of sensible rule and the ndp will be pulling out the knives.
quarry bay
2 years ago
The latest poll
BC Liberals own internal polls have the NDP leading by 9 points and more.
http://billtieleman.blogspot.com/2009/02/bc-liberals-internal-polling-shows-them.html
Angus reid poll out next week will confirm these results
Rod Smelser
2 years ago
jimmy_laroux: You should get a job with Burnaby!
These highways will allow easier automobile access to land at the edge of the city. This, in addition to lax zoning and cheap land to build on, results in sprawl.
Simple as that. It sounds like something that Stephen Rees or Bill Rees or Larry Frank or Gordon Price might say.
The municipalities involved said they don't intend to change their OCPs, but you claim suburban municipalities are guilty of lax zoning. Is zoning also lax in Vancouver and Burnaby? Has Vancouver provided for sufficient increases in density around Skytrain stations, such as Commercial, Nanaimo, etc?
I think you tend to give away the real game though when you mention "cheap land", not that I personally consider the present price of lots in Surrey and Maple Ridge to be cheap, not at $300,000.
Quote:
Will the Golden Ears and Pitt River Bridges, now nearing completion, encourage sprawl.
Yes. They already are. Have you been to Maple Ridge recently?
LOL. I live in Maple Ridge. These bridges haven't even been finished yet, but you say they have already led to more sprawl. I guess that's a new theory, anticipatory induced demand.
Eric Doherty claims that the West Coast Express is a transit system that encourages urban sprawl. Is that true?
http://www.spec.bc.ca/textfiles/Transport%20for%20a%20Sustainable%20Region.pdf
Quote:
What about a replacement for the Patullo Bridge?
... Not sure.
What a joke. According to you, jimmy, every other bridge project creates sprawl, but possibly not this one. Which just happens, by sheer coincidence, to be supported by your fellow Gateway opponent, Mayor Derek Corrigan of Burnaby, and his town planners, Luksun and Ramsey. The same Luksun and Ramsey who designed the Big Bend development in South Burnaby that is entirely dependent on Marine Way, and used former ALR land for a new shopping centre.
BC politics. As usual. And it's an election year. Wonderful.
Rod Smelser
2 years ago
BUZZ HARGROVE'S APPROACH
Dan the socialist
The NDP will be lucky to win 25 seats come May. It pains me to say that as a life long Socialist-Marxist but Carole James does not cut it.
This is the kind of thing that Liberal Buzz Hargrove used to do to Audrey McLaughlin and Alexa MacDonough. I have often wondered if the reason the CAW bus drivers local is a vehement opponent of the PMH1 project can be seen in that light, helping the Liberals by "helping" the NDP to stay "true to its socialist principles".
jimmy_laroux
2 years ago
@ Luke Skywalker
I say that "if new highway infrastructure is built then sprawl will be encouraged". You say that this is false, since "there are examples of sprawl without new highway infrastructure". This is fallacious reasoning. Consider this anaology: I say that "if someone has a brother, then they have a sibling". You say that "there are examples of siblings that are not brothers", therefore it is not true that "if someone has a brother, then they have a sibling". But this is false. So your reasoning is fallacious.
jimmy_laroux
2 years ago
@ Rod Smelser
You flatter me :)
These are not mutually exclusive. The plans are often lax.
I think zoning in Vancouver and Burnaby could be much, much better, yes. I am not blaming sprawl solely on suburban municipalities and the provincial government, if that’s what you’re implying.
You think land is a lot cheaper in Vancouver than in Abbotsford?
You bring up a good point. It depends on zoning as well as on transport mode.
My condolences.
Induced demand and sprawl are two completely different things. You confuse them.
Yes, these bridges lead and will lead to sprawl. But if you don’t believe me, maybe you’ll believe the Municipality of Maple Ridge. According to them the
to the “downtown” area.
http://www.investmapleridge.ca/assets/Default/Community/PDFs/downtown_marketing_brochure.pdf
The point is that they attribute growth to new auto infrastructure. Of course the vast majority of growth in Maple Ridge will be as sprawl (Thornhill, etc.).
No joke. Port Mann and HW 1, Golden Ears, and Pitt River Bridge are different from the Patullo Bridge in the sense that the Patullo serves an area which is already built.
billybud
2 years ago
gateway
I haven't noticed any comments on how many homeowners and renters,will be displaced by the gateway project.I am waiting for word from my landlord(the City of Burnaby)about, when i will have to find new housing because, they will be bulldozing my home and a few others to make way for a new entrance or exit ramp.Has anyone found any numbers on this subject?Forget about the green side,what about the human side.
alive
2 years ago
Silly savings
I find it interesting that governments of every level talks about getting people back to work, but at the same time tries to save money by letting staff go?
My local postoffice is being eliminated meaning that I now will have to drive an extra 10 KM to pick up a parcel. That will cause more pollution and the loss of a few jobs!
The ferry now has reduced staff, meaning that it has a reduced capacity to accomodate passenger, and at times cars are left behind because the passenger number limit has been reached by walk-on's.
Seem to me to be poor choices that only infuriates people and saves little if anything!
Rod Smelser
2 years ago
Jimmy_laroux: What's the real cause of sprawl?
Quote:
It sounds like something that Stephen Rees or Bill Rees or Larry Frank or Gordon Price might say.
You flatter me :)
Not in my view.
I think zoning in Vancouver and Burnaby could be much, much better, yes. I am not blaming sprawl solely on suburban municipalities and the provincial government, if that’s what you’re implying.
...
Quote:
Eric Doherty claims that the West Coast Express is a transit system that encourages urban sprawl. Is that true?
You bring up a good point. It depends on zoning as well as on transport mode.
We have some agreement here, so no point in going further.
The fundamental cause of surburban sprawl in Surrey, Langley and Maple Ridge is the demand for housing that's underwritten by the extremely high prices charged for any type of housing in Vancouver and Burnaby. And that is the result of the policies of those municipalities, which have been deliberately designed to jack up prices as far and as fast as possible, using everything from FSRs, to secondary suite restrictions (gone in Vancouver, but only recently when the political pressure came from Yuppies who found they needed mortgage helpers), to totally unrealistic zoning, which allows for an appearance of density though the construction of needle thin towers, but denies real density that would house larger numbers at lower prices.
Part of Vancouver's/Burnaby's game, and to some extent Richmond and the North Shore as well, has been to adamantly oppose the construction of any type of transportation project which would reduce the time cost of travel to further out locations, since that discourages price competition from these areas.
These Councils and the property owners in those municipalities, who include the richest and most influential people in BC, have historically been very good at convincing provincial and to some extent federal governments to play along with their game. That's why they are so apopletic about Gateway. They see this as an interruption in their ability to veto construction of any transportation link that threatens, or could threaten, the property price pyramid. That's also why they don't like the West Coast Express, and won't approve of any expansion of that type of service.
Many suburban politicians are surprisingly happy to go along with the game, since they figure that if property prices in Vancouver and Burnaby go up, their's will tend to follow, and they will get more residents as people of average means move outwards in search of a home that is, if not truly affordable, at least less unaffordable.
don quixote
2 years ago
It's a Setup
I'm with For a Better World on this one. We're being set up for a fall here. I for one wouldn't be the least surprised if, the day after they get re-elected (assuming they do), the Liberals will awaken to discover an economic crisis that will require major budget cuts, public sector wage roll-backs, government downsizing, sell-offs of public assets and crown corporations, and further privatization of public services. This is disaster capitalism at its best, folks.
G West
2 years ago
don quixote
There have been rumours in the mill since the first of the year that the post-May12 policy of the government will be a harsher version of Bill Bennett's toxic prescription....
Much is being done to damp down those rumours - but, like the mole in that silly game, they keep popping up.
realisticman
2 years ago
Watch out for Sancho!
EDITED FOR BAITING OF ANOTHER POSTER.
COME ON PEOPLE. THE THREADS ARE DEVOLVING INTO NAME CALLING AND IMMATURE TAUNTS. CAN'T WE DO BETTER? TYEE MODERATOR
Albert Camusoff
2 years ago
The Fudget
(Please note this letter was also attached to another Tyee article on the budget. Meant to atach it to this one in the first place. Dang.)
Since every reasonably critical reader/observer knows that Campbell will do ANYTHING to be re-elected so that he can preside over his obscene sports orgy, and the jailing of the poor, are any of us surpried that he has lied, as is his wont, yet again, by concealing, (in his era of open gov't) the truth? I'm always amazed that we even ask him or Hansen or Falcon questions of any import at all, since we know the answer will be a condescending, self-serving lie. Might as well check with Steven Harper and the tooth fairy while we're at it. For those of us outside the kept mainstream media in BC (just wait for the forthcoming cheerleading from our local typists), this budget is yet another example of Campbell and his band of thieves doing far worse with the people's money than the NDP ever did (check the FOI-obtained data on what the NDP left on the books), with, we expect, far less criticism from the media. Clark was practically executed in public by Campbell and the local media for suggesting that deficits might be necessary in a fiscal crisis, and now the drunk driver brings in deficit legislation, expecting that we won't notice. Must all be a part of Gordo's highly-touted Deficit-Free Zone. Campbell's contempt for people (those who are not property developers or his close friends) in this province, and everywhere else, if it is not already obvious, is reflected in his blatant, and far from unnoticed hypocrisy. Thankfully, we have the advantage of reading the careful analysis of posters like Jimmy Laroux so that we don't have to rely on the new-order journalists in The Province, The Sun,those inane Skytrain papers, and some of the posters (Lukey?) who write like they are on the liberal payroll. Security costs for the Olympfix are unknown, as are most of the financial details, since the Fiberals have chosen to keep the books sealed against inspection by the public footing the bill. Though I cannot criticize the choice to avoid cutting already woefully inadequate health and education funding, there is little else here except another set of obfuscations and creative accounting to remember at the ballot box in May. What's it going to be? Fiscal mismanagement with a human touch with the NDP, or fiscal mismanagement and death on the streets with the libs? Peace, fellow citizens.
Rod Smelser
2 years ago
Can anyone be surprised?
G West
There have been rumours in the mill since the first of the year that the post-May12 policy of the government will be a harsher version of Bill Bennett's toxic prescription....
If that happens, can anyone over the age of forty honestly say they are genuinely surprised?
Rod Smelser
2 years ago
realisticman: You must be laughing your guts out!
realisticman
Maybe you're onto something here. Perhaps there's a Hidden Agenda. Shivers down the backbone! ...
You and all the other BC Liberals must be laughing your guts out! It must be pretty damned hard keeping a straight face as you watch all the well-groomed Yuppies who aren't old enough to remember the early 1980s falling for Hansen's budget and Campbell's talking points.
How do you think these kids with the MBAs and BMWs and fitness memberships will react when the other policy shoe drops, post-election? And when that condo they bought with the help of Mum and Dad is falling dramatically in price at the same time? You don't think these people could suddenly turn from perfectly groomed sycophants into angry rebels, do you?
Luke Skywalker
2 years ago
Alberta - Projected $1 Billion Deficit...
Well at least they have a fund that they can dip into to cover that shortfall:
http://www.nationalpost.com/todays_paper/story.html?id=1304642
Frank
2 years ago
Its good to be Alberta bound
"In Alberta, personal bankruptcies soared by 27 per cent year-over-year in the 12-month period ended December, 2008, the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada said yesterday. That was nearly double the 14-per-cent increase for the entire country.
In December alone, personal bankruptcies in Alberta rose 106 per cent from the year before. They were up 51 per cent nationwide."
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090210.reconomy10/BNStory/crashandrecovery/home
sunshine coast girl
2 years ago
why can't we let Gordo & Co know
that if they do win in May (god help us) and then if we discover they were lying about the budget and the direction that the province has to go in, that we WILL recall them? Do you think people might finally say "enough", grow some cojones and do it?
realisticman
2 years ago
Rodney
Don't worry about those yuppies. If interest rates go to early 80's 15% (& more) their mortgages will look pretty good. Bundled as an assumable asset will increase value too and offset declining market prices.
I wonder when Gregor will call Bob Rennie and tell him to drop prices on the Village 'cause they want to move some product and get back some cash. I wonder if the City will offer to carry some mortgages. There will be some sweet deals down there - and with a view too.
They like Obama too and when he says, "I think Canada has shown itself to be a pretty good manager of the financial system...", they get it.
Albert Camusoff
2 years ago
We have to let Gordo know
You're absolutely right Sunshine Coast Girl.
We can talk all we want but we must act, despite the kept media's insistence that we be obedient little sheep, and that we are criminal if we are not. Democracy is not just a synonym for doing as you're told.
Look at the carnage those supposedly in the know have created. How much more suffering are we willing to endure for the benefit of the few? The taxpayers are bailing out the rich, and yet not one of us is being offered shares in the corporations we are buying out of well-deserved bankruptcy. Maybe democracy is just a pretty word for aristocracy or oligarchy or plutocracy.
Campbell, Harper, and their ilk must understand that we will not be held accountable for their refusal to lead. What is a leader anyway if not a really able follower (read boot-licker)? Leadership? Campbell? Harper? C'mon.
We will recall this gov't if (god forbid) they are re-elected by people who refuse to care about the suffera, and we must ensure that the people responsible for this crisis pay for their arrogant greed before one citizen loses one more job or one more home.
Why aren't Harper and our own little drunk concerned about their jobs or their homes? Why aren't Bush and Campbell concerned about prison? The people standing in the rain waiting for buses to get to work 5, 6, and 7 days a week will not be forced to suffer for the liars we are fooled into selecting. In the US, many governors and senators are counselling their constituents to stay in their homes despite foreclosure proceedings. Hell will freeze over before a Canadian politician would suggest the same. So we suggest it. And then we do it. My hard-working brothers and sisters in this country and in others will not lose one more minute's sleep out of fear that liars are going to take from them what they work so hard for. The politicks are our servants, not vice-versa. I am ready to act, and would be happy to be a part of any movement to recall or impeach any government or leader who lies to keep his or her job. I'm not allowed to lie to keep mine. Campbell will do anything to keep his job. It is well past time to make sure he loses it. The problem with power is that we give it to people who want it.
realisticman
2 years ago
Does not exist
Sorry Sunshine but budgets are calculated projections and, as a spiritual woman, you know that projections are conjecture and estimates and expectations and hopes and dreams. They are the future which can only be in anyone's imagination since all we can ever have is 'now'. Nothing in the future can ever be guaranteed. Any budget has to be looked at in this light. It can never be either the truth or a lie but a guess.
G West
2 years ago
Such wise words about budgets and projections
Perhaps all those rosy pictures about Singapore Airlines and Ireland and Dubai come to mind.
With a bit of a cautionary note in the background I'd think.
Rod Smelser
2 years ago
$450,000 mortgage on a $400,000 property
realisticman
Don't worry about those yuppies. If interest rates go to early 80's 15% (& more) their mortgages will look pretty good. Bundled as an assumable asset will increase value too and offset declining market prices.
Really. Interest rates aren't going up, values are going down, because Alan Greenspan's last and greatest bubble, the world-wise real estate bubble, has burst.
What does it matter if it's a lower interest rate than can be had today if the remaining principal on the mortage is $450,000, but the condo in question can only be sold for $400,000.
Rod Smelser
2 years ago
Speaking of Alberta
Alberta's minimum wage, presently $8.40, is set to rise to $8.82 on April 1st. I wonder what Phil Hochsten's spiritual counterparts there have to say about this?
http://www.medicinehatnews.com/content/view/75325/27/
dave49
2 years ago
Olympic security budget
Thursday, Feb 18 4:00pm
I've just heard on the news that the Olympic security budget will be FIVE times what was originally forecast. Guess who's gonna make up the shortfall? We, the taxpayers of The Best Place on Earth (TM).
Gordo & Co. are all liars. It reminds of the crew of paid lairs who promised minimal impact from the cut-and-cover construction of the CANADA Line. They were paid, but not accountable. Our politicians are paid, but accountable come May.
Solution: Vote strategically! Bite your tongue and vote NDP as the Green Party has no hope. Vote for the "bad thing you don't know" as opposed to bad thing you do know (Gordo & Co.)".
Also, remember all the deficits run up across Canada by supposedly conservative, right of centre parties over the last 24 years. They all talk restraint but spend like crazy, accumulating record deficit after record deficit.
realisticman
2 years ago
Feds pay $647.5 million
Did you read the release dave49? Perhaps you're thinking selectively?
"Under the new agreement, B.C.'s total contribution will be $252.5 million, which includes $165 million in new money that was announced Thursday.
The province's new funding will be go toward infrastructure and will involve capital spending spread over three years."
quarry bay
2 years ago
Rman.......
Get your facts straight,there is no NEW SPENDING.
The federal goverment is short-changing us 165 million dollars in infrastructure money over the next 3 years.
In other words we are putting security before infrastructure.
Campbell would have to kick in 330 million dollars to make up the diffrence.
BC doesn`t get ENDLESS infrastructure money.
So Luke Skywalker states that 330 million is just 2% of proposed infrastructure spending,but I remind you Rman that the Campbell goverment doesn`t HAVE ANY infrastructure money,it is all to be borrowed,so that means we will have finance charges on the money,and what guarantees are there that Campbell kicks the money in?
I will remind you that when Campbell took office in 2001 he inherited a debt of 32 billion dollars,well according to the budget forecasrs by the year.....
2011-2012 the BC debt will balloon to 50 billion dollars! And that is not counting any P3s or energy agreements with private power.
And you want to call the Campbell Liberals good fiscal managers,don`t think the public will fall for this shell game,regardless of how you spin it,Sheesh
I guess the federal goverment has said no to the evergreen line funding in lieu of this "arrangement"
Now we know why there is NO CONSTRUCTION START DATE ON A PROJECT THAT HAS BEEN IN THE WORKS FOR 10 YEARS.
Skeena Fisherman
2 years ago
Education spending for K-12 part 2
Realisticman: Since I have lived in a school district that has had to close 9 schools, and run a four day week I'd say that the funding for education in this province since Goofball Gordon has been in power has not only suffered but has devastated this district. You may believe I swallowed the bait but you don't have to live with the consequences of an underfunded " essential service". But the next generation will.
G West
2 years ago
Who do you think CEO Campbell REALLY cares about
Not children in care.....
This government is unreal....imagine what they'll do if the people of BC are so foolish as to elect these trolls for another 4 years?
http://www.theprovince.com/Business/Cuts+kids+risk+child+advocate+asserts/1308244/story.html
ripponfalls
2 years ago
It's going to be much worse
than we expect it now.
http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-32-is-available!-4th-quarter-2009-Beginning-of-Phase-5-of-the-global-systemic-crisis-phase-of-global-geopolitical_a2805.html?PHPSESSID=7f96eb38796490220a969131e624599e
Therefore, budget shortfalls will not exist because the Liberal government will cut out the middleman on the one segment of the economy that has kept us out of recession for the last year: Grow ops.
Yep, that's right, folks. They are gonna open a little grass shack in each and every LCB store. For medicinal purposes only, of course. Gordo is going to be pushing tea.
realisticman
2 years ago
Skeena, Surely You Joke
When you have places like Kildala where the kindergarten enrollment is dropping by 20% in one year, like many others in the Coast Mountains School District, then what can you expect? As the administrators have said, you cant put 50 students in a school built for 250. Unless more people have more babies more schools will have to close. Throughout history cities have become defunct. It's a natural process.
Frank
2 years ago
Cool
Nice to know that when the Libs are in power there's less kids being born and our cities will die "naturally".
Thanks R'man, I loved that post.
realisticman
2 years ago
Hotties
People became poor and stopped having babies during that disastrous NDP rein in the 90's. That's why there are not enough children for the schools today.
You can do the math Frank.