rest in peace

December 2008 the death of Jack Layton and the death of Elizabeth May.

Stephane Dion died 6 months earlier

Tsk, Bill!

Your patience level is on a par with a teenager..............

The scant majority of Canadians now favour the prorogation, because it was getting painful for them to actually think about Canadian politics (for a change). And this in turn threatened to interfere with the X-mas anxiety buildup.

Don't tell you think there could be something "deeper" underlying this, do ya? You of all people know that our politicians (especially the Cons and Libs) would rather the Canadian voter retain their shallowness..........

Support the Harper régime

We don't need coalition governments in Canada. We just need to support the Harper régime. Support the dictatorship!

hmm..

Mr Tieleman, you argue against the coalition's legitimacy through public opinion polls collected by private institutions. The problem with these polls is that they are essentially irrelevant. The only poll that mattered was the election, when MPs were voted into power, and were granted the authority to advise the sovereign as to their majority will. Free to organize themselves as they wish, they realigned themselves due to a lack of confidence in the Prime Minister. Though I understand that you do not like the coalition (as I don't either. I would never, under any circumstance vote for any of the parties involved) it is not the place of public opinion polls to decide who has the authority to advise our governor general. Without the confidence of our elected Commons the Prime Minister does not have authority. I don't care who wins - if the conservatives stay in power their economic platform would likely resemble any that the coalition could produce. It is WHO gets to advise the Governor General that is contested right now: is it the elected House of Commons in the form of a de-facto formalised coalition, or a rogue MP who lacks the constitutional authority to rule? Frankly, I believe that you take the supremacy of our elected House of Commons, the sacrosanct and essential element of our democracy, far too lightly.

Bill

"our putative YouTube Prime Minister whose amateur hour, late, hand-held Super 8 video to the nation on Thursday made it clear why he badly lost the recent election." Do you suppose that you could talk about what he actually said rather than the picture qnd production quality? Is that too much to ask? I can get this from CanWest.

Who needs enemies?

Bill,

I've heard you're an NDPer. If so, I'm not sure one needs enemies with friends of the public like you.

You wrote,
"NDP, Liberals will pay big for what LOOKS LIKE like a failed gamble."
Exactly - "looks like." Most of the media fuss over this whole event has been cooked up and orchestrated by the Cons. (And it hasn't even started yet.) If you truly believe in government defending the public good, why would you condemn the coalition before it even has a chance?

I listened carefully to what every leader had to say pre-election, and frankly, there was nothing wrong with the brainpower and ideas of Jack or Dion or Gilles or Elizabeth, and combined, it could be quite a team. There's been a deliberate undermining of Dion's leadership from day by the hard wing of the Libs, and the Tories, both. And complete distain by a country full of village idiots for someone with an intellectual mind. I bet Dion goes down in history as "one of the best Prime Ministers, Canada never had."

You've allowed yourself to fall into the trap of superficial analysis. The Tories must LOVE you for it, and Benedict Arnold would be proud.

Poll toll

The one thing polls reveal more than anything else is how easy it is to enable group-think to overtake the world.

"Let me check the latest poll.... and then I'll tell you what I think I think: what I believe, what I'll buy and what I'll sell...who's in, who's out.... who I will ridicule, who I will love... and who I will kill on the battlefield. I wouldn't want to be off trend all by myself....where the risk of real thinking begins. "

We'll have a better world when we stop being influenced by the mere mention of what everybody else is "supposedly" thinking or doing...or buying...materially or politically.

Dictators

So now we have two dictators (Harper and Campbell) conning an ill-informed public who is too self-absorbed to pay attention to the destruction and corruption that surround us.
Perhaps the Quebec election will teach the rest of Canada something.
All these polls that are conducted with such fury must have the Conservative party members on their phoning lists!

Guts

When all is said and done, Harper's agenda (Economic Update) and the three asinine ideas within, which had nothing to do with our economic situation, have been squashed. Yeah for the opposition members, as a coalition or not.
Once again, imagine what Harper would do with a Majority!!!!!!!
I guess, Bill, that you would prefer an opposition with no backbone, no principles; an opposition who were more concerned with their jobs than the country.

be realistic BIll

Bill you have a hard time containing your glee: like "I told you so!"
Why not sit down and realize that nobody particularly wants a collaboration between parties; but that is has become essential if any party wants to stay relevant.
The Liberals showed no backbone during the last session, and now when they do ----- it is bad?
If you knew anything about coalitions you would agree that every member of that coalition has to give up some of their pet ideas, in order for it to work!
Would you prefer that the NDP sits back and waits till it gets a majority?
That would be a long wait, and in the meanwhile Harper would ruin the country!
So, it is better to settle for the possible and bide ones time about the stuff that the coalition cannot agree on.

Thinking outside the box

Could a credible coalition leader not be identified by end of January ou budget time? Was thinking of Mulcair the brightest light bulb amongst them all with an awesome record for having a real backbone.

It is going to be hard for Harper to buy out that many MPs, if the Lib/NDP/bloc decide to throw him out.

I understand now that this coalition concocted with Chretien and likes was doomed to fail. One concocted with a credible leader by elected Libs/NDPs&Bloc MPs should certainly be considered. The case of the coalition not being "legitimate" because of the Bloc might get a whole lot harder to make by Harper now that the "shock" is over.

Whoa, everybody take a tranq!

Bill is working with the same dataset we all have at this point in time. There is no disputing that Harper won this round. It might feel good to rail against that, but the mourning process will eventually get us all to the same point. An understanding that we need to play smarter if we are to defeat the well financed, carefully calculating, hugely advantaged people who Harper acts for.

*alive- if you knew about coalitions - What, are you from Italy? Do tell us your measure of expertise on this matter and we’ll measure it against Bill’s work on the STV vote in 2005

*greengreen - an opposition more concerned about their jobs - Or the pant wetting squeal of expectation of a Senate seat?

*lynn - group think - Like it or not, that is how democracy works

*skywalker - talk about what he actually said rather than picture quality - Okay, but a vast majority of Canadians are talking about that very thing and will vote base on that conversation rather than your screed

*quarry bay - sadly, you may be right

Alive

Pet ideas? The NDPs key platform item was to roll back 50 billion in tax cuts from corporations.
That money was going to be used for daycare hospitals and working families.

The Green leader Lizzy May was tempted with a cabinet seat or possibly a lifetime senate seat,Lizzy May in her platform was crying doom and gloom the world is going to end without the green`s carbon tax which was 5 times more expensive the the liberals carbon tax.

Lizzy May stated " Well you can`t always get what you want"

Apparently for a lifetime senate seat Lizzy May would let the world roast away!

None of you seem to get it, what Bill Teilman is talking about is---The NDP should of framed the argument better and vowed to bring down the goverment in a non confidence motion and force another election.

Between all the parties they probably could of reduced Harper`s seat count.

There will be no coalition at all now,but after an election the Liberals and NDP might have had enough to for a 2 party coalition.

I am not a big Harper fan but Jack screwed up and took his party down with him!

Now Harper is going to put out a budget that no one will be able to vote against without hurting their party further,and even if everyone votes against it there will not be a coalition,there will be a election,period!

If jack would of played it smart he would of gained all kinds of seats and maybe been the official opposition.

But no, Jack excepted a promise of a few minor cabinet seats and the role of the junior mouthpiece of the coalition,well that monicker will stick to Jack like stink on a monkey.

Jack must resign,Dion must resign,Elizabeth May must resign, they all must resign for the good of their parties.

The Coalition and the brainwashed public

Well, Bill, we got to see the effectd of American-leaning and watered-down adn de-Canadianized education techniques (and text books) on our country. Thanks to a pro-American, pro-corporate, Friedmanical press and TV, Canadians' lack of knowledge Canadians persists. Obviously, the Governor General is no better. Unwittingly, she betrayed us all. The people of Canada will one day find Disney owns their parks. They'll find their access to the lakes locked and barricaded, as some American forest company will own them. They will find that they won't even be able to go for a walk in the woods. People have been brainwashed steadily since 1975 and don't even know it. This was all planned in 1963 (and tested in Chile). In BC, a couple of forest CEOs sat down for a couple of drinks and planned the Fraser Institute to help frame public opinion. In doing so, they sealed the demise of the very Canadian company they worked for.

appeal to Frank

Bill, the one glaring error in your conceited claim to have known more than everyone else, is that NO-ONE, not even the many constitutional experts who were asked, knew whether Harper's intention to prorogue was constitutional.

Furthermore, many people believe, and I am one of them, that had the Coalition achieved power, overnight it would have been a brand new ball game, and that after the initial banshee howling of the MSM, the Coalition could have governed quite effectively.

On another thread, Frank has offered his views concerning your assumptions. Though contrary to my own views, I found them very compelling, since he feels we should not chicken out without a good fight, and so abandon the field to the neocons.

Seven weeks, though short in ordinary time, is years in politics, and who knows what can transpire in the next LONG seven weeks?

I am hoping that on this thread, Frank will expand upon his perspective, since there's still lots more pitches yet to be thrown in this ballgame.

de Falla

Since you're so determined to critique others, I suppose you won't be too upset if someone picks over your entrails for a few seconds.

OK?

First of all, what dataset? In fact, we have some summary statistics from a few very recently released polls. Do you know what the questions were? When the polls were taken, how the sample and demographics were determined?

I didn't think so. Any conclusions drawn from the summary conclusions in the ‘data' Bill presented in his article are pretty much useless - no one I know who studies political science seriously would draw any conclusions on the basis of this kind of information. Bill may want to go out on a limb and say it proved his thesis but that doesn't satisfy anyone's objective test - except yours - how come?

Possibly you have a bias too - or would it be unfair for me to dismiss your comment - if not Bill's flimsy evidence, with the same kind of off hand remarks you've applied to others?

I think it's way too soon to call this game - we're still in very early innings and, before you bring down the verdict on coalitions, you might want to remember that there are a whole lot of very stable countries with long-standing coalition governments all over the world. I actually provided a list for Tyee readers of another story a few days ago – I won’t post them again because the facts are clear and I’m not trying to embarrass you!

On balance, I think I could make a very strong case that coalitions are more stable than dictatorships or single party governments or, for that matter, many majority governments. Sometimes the odd exception like Italy simply proves the rule. As for stability, I’d say the whirlpool of vitriol Stephen Harper has stirred up in his little fit of pique is about the least stable government I’ve seen in Canada in a generation.

In conclusion - because I've said a good deal about Bill's negativity elsewhere and I'm not going to repeat it here – enough is enough but I think you should take a bit of a pill yourself my friend.

Cheers.

G West

I encourage you to view the following data:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=4201 and attached tables

http://www.compas.ca/pages/FrameMain.html

http://www.ekos.com/admin/articles/5dec2008.pdf

http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_news/polls/2008-12-04%20globeandmail%2(web).pdf

The people you drink beer with may be smarter than those polled, but in total the respondents have more votes.

as much as it pains you

one cannot but help to notice that the ndp lib coagulation(TM) also promised automatic cash to satisfy two very large union entities in central canada whom many see as bloated, inefficient and uncreative.

Even though Canadians support many socially progressive positions, we do not as a whole support union rules in the workplace. Of course schadenfreude at the way Central Canada has dominated the federal landscape could also be involved in majority support for the Cons.

It was a badly mis-timed thrust that Mr. Harper directed at his opponents but the jello-suicide coagulation reaction of the other parties was no light saber cutting through butter.

And so here we are as I wrote as first news of the impasse came through light that all Harper needed was time to unwind some announcements to play the media game and win the day.

And so it shall be a majority if the parliament snaps for Mr. Harper and friends and then adieu it will be to much of the past.

I have to respectfully disagree....

Sorry Bill. If we believed in polls the Tories would have had a majority last election. First, I believe that a whole lot of those people polled don't even vote. Second, the public has the attention span of a gnat. Third, a lot of actual voters who would never vote Tory were uncomfortable with the idea of a Coalition led by an outgoing Liberal and supported by the Bloc and would prefer to have an election.

da Falla

That's not the point - polls are a result of media hype that's about all. What we ought to be talking about, in my view, is having some longer term objectives than observing what the average joe eats for breakfast. As for spending time parsing polls – why bother, like the weather, they’ll change tomorrow.

The point here is that Harper will take some time and effort to whittle down to size. The process has begun but if folks of good will and high ideals like you and Bill don't see any further down the road than Ipsos, Nanos and Angus Reid and [i]res ipsa locutor [i]we might as well surrender the keys to Harper now.

He deals in sound bites and hateful demagoguery - most columnists, even in relatively weak and useless papers, have noted this and Limbaugh/Adler types have the attention span of a gnat.

The point is, after all, polls are about confirming short term strategic moves - the sort of meat a Stephen Harper loves. But remember, the man is supported by 30 odd folks who can't do much more than memorize a mantra. They generate heat - but not much light. As the economy stumbles, people who really care about the future will begin to understand that what's going on here isn't at all about a popularity contest.

I don't really care if this coalition fails - the important thing is to bring the country back to its senses. If we listen to the polls and Bill Tieleman there will always be a Party - but there may be no country.

Harper

Bill, you still haven't learned that Canadians have the attention span of a sparrow as per your BC Rail thing. BC doesn't give a rats ass about that now and I haven't come across any polls lately condemning Gordo and the thieves.

The Globe and pails of bs today admitted that Harper is the reason so many Parliamentarians are pissed off. They even went so far as to say that he should be dumped as leader so Parliament can get on with the peoples business.

He has poisoned Parliament to the point that the opposion MP'S don't care about anything else other making his idiot pay the price for trying to crap all over them when he thought they were the most vulnerable.

Any one that cares about this, and that includes you Bill, should be screaming for Harper's sorry butt to be punted into political oblivion. He is a menace to himself and Canada.

The cry now should be to dump Harper!

By the way Bill,this country was built by people standing up for the good of all and not running away with their tails struck between their legs when the going got tough.
You truly disappoint me.

really?

"Pet ideas? The NDPs key platform item was to roll back 50 billion in tax cuts from corporations.
That money was going to be used for daycare hospitals and working families."

Right, so it was! Did it happen?
As I said better to achieve your goals in small steps than to sit back and let the bully run the country!

While the NDP idea of stopping further taxcuts sit well with me, it could only happen should NDP get a majority, and what are the chances for that to happen?

My point is that in this case, we need to go for the possible and quit having dreams of how an ideal society ought to be!

"alive- if you knew about coalitions - What, are you from Italy? Do tell us your measure of expertise on this matter and we’ll measure it against Bill’s work on the STV vote in 2005"

S'cuse me what has STV work have to do with the function of a coalition?

If you had followed my posts you would already know my origins, and read my input here.
Suffice to say I have lived under coalition governments and seen that progress can be made there, while absolutely no progress happens if you are not a part of the coalition.

In spite of Ed Deaks admonitions I prefer to remain anonymous, because I have experienced the wrath individual fanatics, when I was foolish enough to sign my name in a letter to the editor a long time ago.

Likewise I have no intention of listing my qualifications, as it has nothing to do with free expression.

I have my opinions and they are as valid as any.

TOO Much... TOO Fast... TOO Irrational... #1

It's worth repeating again that Bill Tieleman had it "bang on" when he stated in his previous Tyee column as many others have also gathered:

The Purported Coalition:

Dion had just led the Liberals to one of their worst political showings in Canadian history. Remember Dion's *beloved* "Green Shift" and the poor third place leadership rankings throughout the campaign???

From reading posters here, obviously not. Well, the same Dion was/is to head the purported coalition.

The same Liberal party that is in disarray, with financial problems, holding a leadership convention next May.

Yep, a "very stable" senior coalition partner.

And then we have the floundering NDP who has apparently sold out its political principles (soul???) as the junior coalition partner for some power. Cool.

Remember the NDP's stalwart position of immediately withdrawing the troops from the Afghanistan mission as well as axing the $50 billion in corporate tax cuts???

Who cares, the NDP now agrees with the Liberals. For the first time the NDP can now have have some power. Ooopps... did the NDP mention that they won't be cabinet ministers near any financial/economic portfolios???

And we have the BQ's Duceppe also signing onto the deal. Not as a coalition partner... but dare we say having "veto" power over financial matters concerning Quebec?? [as reported by CTV News]

Man, that purported coalition makes one of the Italian "spaghetti" coalitions from the '70's and '80's appear stable.

BTW, does anyone here even know that Canada has not had a coalition since WW 1, since it's not part of our British Parliamentary system/traditions??? But, I digress.

Tieleman:

Frankly, that's the stunner in this whole escapade. How the hell is the NDP ever gonna explain that acquiescence??? How the hell is the NDP ever gonna have any credibility in a future election, when they just ditched their main party planks and principles??????

Biggest stunner of 'em all!

TOO Much... TOO Fast... TOO Irrational... #2

Bill Tieleman:

The Cons won 37% in the last election and polled close to 40% during the same federal election. But all polling now shows the Cons well into the 40% range reaching up to 51%. Forget about Con majority government that's a Con landslide.

And posters here seem to think how is that possible??... That dictator Harper has to go!!

Well, Canadians want stability right now with the current economic situation and they see the Cons to be in that role. Not Dion, Layton, nor the BQ.

In fact the majority of Canadians are "pissed off" right now at the hijinks in Ottawa... At all parties. They just don't care anymore.

To put things into further perspective,
the Cons have 143 seats, 12 seats short of a majority. Throw in the two proto Con independents and the Cons are 10 seats short of a majority.

Based upon current public opinion, the Cons could easily win another 6 seats right here in BC, bag the Edmonton-Strathcona seat, and maybe another one in Manitoba. The Cons are then ~ 3 seats short of majority government.

But the big story is Ontario, where the Cons now have a 20%+ lead in all public opinion polls. That would equate to another 30 - 40 Con seats. Bingo!!!! There we have it ... Con Majority.

Right now the Cons also seem to be holding their own in Quebec as well as the Maritimes according to the same four polls.

Bernard Schulmann, a well-known political prognosticator (whom Tieleman knows), came up with this seat projection today (with relatively conservative poll numbers in favour of the coalition):

Conservatives - 183 [28 more than majority]
Liberals - 56
Bloc - 49
NDP - 18
Ind - 2 [proto-Cons]

http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.com/2008/12/new-polls-on-voter-federal-vote.html

If the Cons lose their confidence vote in the house after the presentation of their budget in January (now highly doubtful), just like the previous prognostications for proroguing the house, an election is also likely to be called thereafter.

And it seems that many posters on here will say in that election aftermath... "What the hell just happened???"

The appalling lack of knowledge............

.......of our political system by both the public and reporters have driven this story as some sort of coup de etat. It isn't, it's just how our political system works. Those who have enough seats to win a vote of confidence, rules the house. Simple.

It seems that the Canadian public wish for dictatorship of a majority, is based on the faulty idea that we live in a democracy - we don't, rather we live in a oligarchic dictatorship, where power is vested in one man. Elections in Canada are just a little more relevant than elections in Russia.

Clearly Harper thought he was god, when he brought in the election act changes and the opposition quite rightly went ballistic. Harper wanted to kill what little democracy we had, by cutting off funding. The opposition stepped up to the plate and forced harper to do, what he didn't want to do, prorogue the house.

6 weeks is an eternity in politics and with mounting bad news, Harper will be faced with massive dwindling public support over the holidays and the dour January snows will also sour the Canadian (Easter Canadian) electorate to Harper.

Attack ads backfire and I believe Harper will continue to shoot himself in the foot with these.

Now for the NDP, get rid of Layton, he is nothing more than a national windbag.

The Liberals, should sink Dion faster than the Titanic, forget about Rae or Iggy and go straight for Justin Trudeau.

The bloc are secure in Quebec and the Greens should quietly get at least 6 people elected in 6 key ridings.

And now for the Canadian public - damn it read something about Canadian Parliamentary democracy and at least have a real understanding how our system works, for you are being played as fools by Harper and his spin doctors.

In the 20's, in Germany, a funning looking Austrian chap with a funny mustache was elected. By the publics lack of political savvy he became the leader or Der Fueler, by legal political means. The rest is history.

Harper is playing the same game in Canada because politics is not about running the country, rather it is a childish game of winner take all!

Alive

Articles on various websites and from http://www.knowstv.ca/knowstv.html indicate that Bill was very active in that coalition - which included politicians from the Green Party, NDP and Socreds as well as others from all political backgrounds.

gwest

the idea we are a democracy is stupid to begin with - we're a constitutional monarchy. Period.

MichaelT

We have a representative democracy with an appointed head of state. There is no appeal to the Queen - sorry!

Representative democracy means that every few years the electors get to vote for a single member of parliament.

In the interim, the parliament runs the country according to certain laws, rules and conventions.

We are only a democracy as long as the government has the confidence of a majority of members of parliament. That is no longer the case and the only proof anyone needs was provided on Thursday when the Prime Minister, a bully to the core, was forced to slink to Government House to use a precedent from 1873 to retain his illicit hold on his office.

Blaming this on the monarch is a red herring of gargantuan proportions.

Harper has debased himself, the country and our future - whether some or even a majority of Canadians think this was positive or constructive - is the real problem now.

As Grumpy pointed out above, it is simply another indication of the ignorance of the populace and the irresponsibility of the media. Canadians need to decide which group the want to join.

da Falla

You're right. There are some 'coalitions' that Bill Tieleman has NO problem with at all.

His adoring affection for First Past the Post is legendary - and, in my view, as purblind to the problems of real democracy and the future of this province and country as is his fallback from principles to polls in the current dustup on the Rideau.

Bill has tried to make a case for it. In my view he's failed.

A new coalition leader

You may be interested in checking the thread on Facebook "Mulcair to lead coalition" on the group "I'm a part of the 62% majority | Je fais partie de la majorité de 62 %"

Dion has got to go and a credible leader must be found. If the coalition cannot timely find such a leader, it is toast and we may as well move on.

Gaulois, I disagree. IF the

Gaulois,

I disagree. IF the coalition is constitutionally legal (and from what I've read, it is), and IF the coalition members
don't lose their nerve, we'll have a ruling coalition.

Canadians have short memories, and if the coalition does a competent job of ruling over the next 2 years, HOW it came about into power will matter little, as Canadians will be forced to get past their fear of anything new and come to the logical European conclusion that yes, Canada CAN also have coalition governments.

Just because Canadians don't like the color of the shirt Jack Layton is wearing, the book Dion had on the shelf in his video, Duceppe's jokes about mothers, or any other myriad of other red herring details, doesn't mean a damned thing. I don't like the look in Stephen Harper's eyes - but honestly, what does that have to do with the fact he gets to be leader if he has the confidence of the house?
Nada. My personal petty opinion, as with the opinion of so many in the media right now trying to bully everyone to think that only Harper can rule because he says so, means NOTHING.

Last I checked, our parliamentary check and balance system is set up to be ruled by the leader of the MAJORITY THAT HAS THE HOUSE'S CONFIDENCE - which in this case, it is now the coalition. End of story.

alda and gaulois

I think keeping one's nerve is key - I'd like to start a letter-writing campaign or some such thing.

If you and gaulois are interested send me an email:

Round # 1 Harper Lost. # 2 The Clock Stopped

Now round # 3- we'll have to wait and see!

I agree that the polls are irrevalent at this time. Certainly many of us use them like crutches, but they don't foretell or determine anything concrete.

As for those against a coalition, including and especially you Tieleman. Most of you are sounding like frustrated voters who are willing to cut off their noses to spite the process.

Harper was given a chance to run the gov't twice now. What is so terrible about giving a coalition a chance, they can't possibly do worse than Harper.

Besides we don't need to waste our resources on another election when we can simply switch to a coalition gov't with the process that is already underway.

If it works, Quebec's separatist leanings may be lessened, the NDP will have finally had a chance to help run the federal gov't and maybe Dion will make a decent administrator/Prime Minister.

Yes, Grumpy, it is appalling...

For "it is the 'appearance of things' that matters." ~ J.F. Kennedy as quoted by Gore Vidal.

The amateur hour of Dion will be remembered for that is what the public - and the Liberal Supporters - saw...amateur hour.

The appearance of failure is what the Dippers have seen and certainly feel deflated by it. Just as they, the Dippers, paid in 1972 for supporting the Liberals under the minority Trudeau government, so too will they pay -> BIG TIME. Back then their leader lost his seat, will 'smilin' Jack' fare any better?

The Conservatives have shown that the three blind mice, Layton, Dion and May are not the ones to be trusted. Layton will bend with any political wind, Dion the quitter cannot even stand by that decision waffling worse than PM Dithers, and May was out for a Senate seat at the first opportunity trumpeting that as though it meant something to the Green movement.

Duceppe has definately come out the winner of this federal round. Perhaps doing enough to show that 'les anglais' do not want to see 'Quebec libre' ever. This may be just enough to push the PQ into power in the National Assembly...should that be the case January 2009 may mark the end of this phase of Confederation.

Grumpy, your demands to expect the general populace to care one whiff more about the machinations of how Ottawa operates are appalling, in your total misunderstanding of the reality of 21st century politics.

Your thought that Justin Trudeau may be able to use his fathers' name...dunno that might be a stroke of genius or the kiss of death. Much will depend on the participation of Generation Y...a cohort that has started to realize that all forms of governance that were built in the 18th century (or earlier) are flawed. Flawed in that they cannot react to the dynamics of the 21st century fast enough...mostly because their forms of control and maintennance are based on slow means of communications.

The appearance of things is that the Canadian Ottawa Based Governance model has failed...and will continue to do so until a major change is undertaken.

Vive La Quebec Libre!

GO BC!

good night Ottawa.

Backfire

Like Mafia, Godfather movie, this whole powerplay is now looking played out and Dion and Layton are the big losers in an ill conceived gambit. The political analysis in the press is beginning to catch up with solid opinions. Unfortunately, on the blogs those that begin with partisan views- like hating Harper, usually found a way to justify the coalition. Now after a few weeks the coalition has exposed its own weaknesses.

Liberals and NDP together? That's a worse sell out of values than any of today's pop stars. These two parties have effectively eviscerated themselves. The coalition gambit was not a calculated risk. It was sheer madness. A wreckless gamble and bluff with no strong suits.

Big winner? Of course, Bloc. It leveraged itself into the national spotlight as the kingmaker.

Thanks, G West

Thanks, G West.

I've already written a brief note in support to coalition members of the Commons and the Senate, made a couple of talk radio phone calls, as well as written to two on-line national newspapers. A note to the GG can't hurt, either.

You can be sure that the moneymen behind the Cons will be launching a boatload of ads in January. If this struggle is going to be won or lost on the media battlefield, it's the least we can do.

COALITION

I respect Mr. T's input on most topics, especially the BC Rail debacle but somewhat part company with him on this one. I don't like the idea of this coalition any more than many other Canadians but it is, from all appearances, the lesser of two evils. The schoolyard bully has to be called out or he will continue to taunt and torment you until you have no self-respect left. What comprises the hidden agenda of Harper et al? Even partial knowledge of that would likely convert the polls. Health and the Canada Pension Plan are fair game, in my opinion, for any Harper majority government. By the way Bill, what was a better idea in the face of all of Harper’s machinations than coalition?

The coalition is right: you can't trust 'em.

But why, if Jack and Stephane were serious, did they not wait for an actual confidence vote to spring a counter attack on them? A coalition, if necessary, I say but not necessarily this coalition.

larryr

Can I try to answer that larry?

I think being open and above board was the only way the coalition had a chance to succeed.

Imagine, if you will, the storm of manufactured anger that would have rained down if the move had been orchestrated in the same way Joe Clark's undoing was? Given, moreover, the necessity to enlist the Bloc's support or acquiescence without making them a formal part of the coalition, I don't see any other way it could have been engineered.

I do believe they erred in one respect.

I think they failed to appreciate that Pee Wee had a precedent that would allow him to get out of jail free and turn the country into a banana republic. That's why the meeting with the GG took so long.

However, I also think that, if it's going to succeed the coalition needs to get its act together - I've been writing everyone I can think of who might help push that point of view and I'd suggest, as alda has done, you do that too.

Furthermore, whatever happens, Stephen Harper will go down in history as a rascal for escaping his just desserts by the same means John A MacDonald (another Tory leader with a tarninshed reputation) used to avoid the reckoning brought on by his involvement in the Pacific scandal.

As MacDonald's biographer wrote:

When the House met according to arrangement on August 13th, vehement efforts were made by the Opposition to change the form of meeting agreed upon into a regular session, in order to deal at once with the charges that had been made. To this Macdonald could not agree, as a large body of his supporters were in the more distant parts of Canada and some in Europe, so that the Opposition, whose strength lay in Ontario, would probably have secured a majority on any vote of censure in a parliament so called together. Great pressure was brought upon the governor-general, the Earl of Dufferin, by petition and through the press, to induce him to insist upon parliament proceeding to deal with the question at once. When the governor-general announced his decision that by the constitution he was bound to follow the advice of his ministers in regard to prorogation, the House broke up amid scenes of great excitement.

With support and resolve from Canadians who know the facts and respect the truth, Harper too can be brought to the same end that John A MacDonald's government was back in 1873

[quotation is taken from Sir John A MacDonald by George R Parkin (1808)]

Bill Tielmann

Bill, you should not be attacking the NDP for a willingness to compromise on its policies regarding corporate tax cuts and Afghanistan.

Because the fact is, its you that demonstrated a willingness to sell out NDP principles for nothing in return. The policies of pay equity and the right to strike have been part of NDP platforms for decades.

When the present government went after pay equity, the right to strike and the ability of opposition parties to contest elections the NDP chose to work with the Liberals to defend those historic policies in return for actual cabinet seats.

In doing so they had to suspend for a time their opposition to Afghanistan and corporate tax cuts.

In return, NDPers such as you have attacked the party for a willingness to compromise on those issues in spite of the fact that attitude would mean the government would abolish 3 things the NDP believes strongly in and would get nothing in return.

In doing so you have decided that pay equity, the right to strike and a level playing field during elections aren't important issues.

One can only wonder how it is you or anyone else can continue in the NDP if you continue to believe those policies aren't important.

The fact is, as "alive" has pointed out, the NDP is not strong enough to win every battle for everything on its wish list. Something most of us appreciate.

On the other hand, a willingness to jettison everything on the NDP wish list if it means better polling results makes no sense whatsoever unless politics to you is nothing more than a game and policies have no real-world ramifications.

Frank, Garth - Come to your senses! - Bill Tieleman

Frank, Garth [GWest] - in your rush to the coalition of the unlikely you have lost your common sense - so much that I wonder if you are both visiting Ottawa right now!

What principles did I give up on, NDP or otherwise?

Stephen Harper backed down on the right to strike. He backed down on public funding for political parties. He realized the opposition parties would not support his wrong-headed approach - that's how a minority Parliament is supposed to work.

And if the Liberals hadn't continually rolled over in the last Parliament and Stephane Dion hadn't given up 42 different times, the opposition could have played a much more constructive role.

But the coalition idea was fatally flawed from the start for two clear - unless you are in Ottawa - reasons that both have the intials SD.

Stephane Dion.

Separatist Duceppe.

And now the results are in - you can cry about polling all you like but in politics it is the highest currency in the realm.

The Liberals and NDP - by proposing a coalition with Stephane Dion as Prime Minister and with the Bloc Quebecois in a key supporting role - have handed Harper a stunning victory in public opinion.

One must now hope that there is no election for a long time to come - because if there is the Liberals and NDP will have their heads handed to them on a platter!

And if you think that courting disaster is a principled position, you may have a future in Ottawa!

I can't believe you wrote that Bill

...in politics it is the highest currency in the realm.

Because if it's true we might just as well turn the whole country over to CanWest and Ipsos Reid. And cash in that passport for one with an eagle on the front.

Does it feel comfortable sitting next to Jack Munro?

It's time to wake up all right. Power is everything to Stephen Harper.

I thought you knew what was wrong with that construction - apparently you don't.

Bill

You write that there is a serious flaw having "the Bloc Quebecois in a key supporting role" even though it was quite obvious that Duceppe's roll was only that he would not call a confidence vote for 18 months. There were no special deals so it was no different than what Harper has done and does to stay in power. Although any support from the Bloc is now a dream for him unless there is a lot of money for Quebec in it. So we really win don't we?

The only flaw I saw was they should have kept their plan to themselves, sent their letter to the GG, waited till Monday and then immediately gone to the GG with a coalition in place. The conservatives would have ranted but then it would have been over and a few months from now Harper and Dion would have been history.

I will view any of you comments with a healthy dose of cynicism in the future. The last thing we need is people who view our democracy as some sort of stagnant three party contest where the person who gets the most seats gets to play king while the opposition no matter how many voters they represent has limited options. All this reliance on past practices and we can't evolve to suit the current situation is prehistoric.

Coalition

The Coalition are the BIG WINNERS in this thing.

They stood up to a vicious neo-con ideological monster and have given him a good thrashing.

This won't end until Steven Harper is gone.

The opposition know that this poison snake has just been caged and are just waiting to drop him overboard.

All the posturing, ringing of hands, and all the verbal diarrhea being spewed here and everywhere else is not going to change this.
So sit back and watch the self destruction
of the worst Parliamentarian and Prime Minister in Canada's history.

I am going to thoroughly enjoy it.

Bill Tielmann

You were against the Coalition even before Harper backtracked and would be regardless of whether he had. If I am wrong and if Harper hadn't backtracked you would support the Coalition then now is a good opportunity to say so.

Secondly, Layton had already had a meeting with Harper about the economy and every idea he put forward was rejected. So there is no chance of working with the Harper gov't. They are simply not interested.

Thirdly, its rich now to blame Dion for rolling over 42 times in the last parliament when that is exactly the strategy you demand the Liberals pursue now and in fact demand the NDP copy them.

And lastly, polling is not the highest currency, our laws and institutions are. Polling is for those who see politics as an extension of sports. Might as well vote for a colour. Thankfully you're not teaching classes on Canadian government and telling people that they don't have to read up on how government works because whatever the polls say is the law of the land.

with respect

I'm still very curious Mr. Tielemann: what would you have done instead or what might have been a better idea in the face of the cynical, disrespectful challenge of Flaherty's economic update on the 27th? I sincerely would like to know what anyone thinks a better idea than Messrs. Layton and Dion's would have looked like. It seems a kind of Chamberlain-like acquiescence is the only alternative model being proposed. Polls are interesting but they can shift in 24 hours.

Conservative plans for the economy in terms of rising poverty, social programs, CPP, OAS, EI are all vulnerable. The right to strike and pay equity are still ripe for discussion. We should encourage Jack to petition the old New Government of Canada to reverse the name of E.I.; change it back to U.I. in light of the 71000 jobs lost to its mismanagement of the surplus and failure to anticipate the need for a stimulus package. I just don't think you can back down once you've begun to fight back.

Those crowds don't signify spontaneous support

No Two Ways About It
by Rick Mercer
The Globe and Mail - 6 December 2008

If seeing is believing, we've been lied to again and again. Harper isn't even as popular as it appears. Rick Mercer makes it sound comical but it isn't.

Read about the Harper staffers who were ordered to show up at 6:30 AM at the gates of 24 Sussex Drive in Ottawa last Thursday "to show support ..."

Read about the paid staffers re-grouping outside Rideau Hall to wait for Harpo's announcement of prorogation ...

I've read about stuff like this ... only they happened in corrupt dictatorships where busloads of citizens are hauled into place to show "spontaneous" approval of some tinpot dictator.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20081206.RICK06/TPStory/?query=rick+mercer

Correction ... it was 6:15 AM

Quoting Rick Mercer ...

During the past week, while the nation wondered if the government would fall, junior Conservative staffers were ordered to be outside 24 Sussex Dr. by 6:15 in the morning.

Their job was to stand there in the dark with the temperature well below zero and wait for the PM to appear. Their instructions were to applaud, wave and sing O Canada loudly as the motorcade pulled out of the gates and drove Stephen Harper to work ...

The problem in essence

The response on this thread has gotten to the essence of the problem in Canadian politics:

Are we a country that relies on popular and media corporate opinion to lead us by the nose and tell us how to vote, or do we rely, as G West said, on the majority voters' common sense in wanting protection of human values as upheld by constitutional law (even if they are temporarily fooled into voting the other way in a new election)?

I'm disappointed in capitulations the NDP has to make too, but do we remain purists waiting for the never-to-happen full majority, or do we take one small step forward, where progressives have a tangible say in cabinet, for once - no matter how small that say is?

The positively hateful, rabid and vitriolic talk radio I've been listening to this afternoon would like us to live with vigilante government, a right wing fairyland where Canadian democracy is "great" ONLY when it works in its favour.
I say whatever the coalition can do to put a roadblock to that is the only path.

I'm beginning to think Dion is a lot SMARTER and principled than given credit for. Maybe, for once, he's out-strategized Wonderboy, even if it means he himself will be booted out the door. Next week's caucus and January's events will tell.

Crystal ball gazing

Remember what that little YouTube clip did to Harper last time in Quebec. Now check this one out on "Furhrer Harper":
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xe-DFZA6pR0
Harper will lose the battle of public opinion on YouTube! Luv it.

There's a subtext here Frank

At least I think so - something Rex Murphy understands (despite his generally dyspeptic and curmudgeonly demeanor) but Stephen Harper and his wrecking crew just never seem to 'get'. Sadly, Bill Tieleman seems to have not learned the lesson either - for what reason I cannot say.

That is, a system of government, like any moral system, is a complex and interlocking social arrangement. No one does anything good or worthwhile on his own. It requires the constant support, reinforcement and allegiance of all players for each to resist the ever-present temptations to let the ends justify the means. That system, and the necessary allegiance all players need to pay to its preservation, has broken down under the machinations of Stephen Harper.

The man simply fails to recognize that there are legitimate and sincere interests outside of his narrow belief system. There is NO capacity for good will in the man. Anyone who doubts this fact needs only rewind some of his performances from the House of Commons last week.

Bill seems to think that it can be business as usual with this man; in fact, it's not and it won't be until Stephen Harper has left the stage.

True, the coalition is a messy article, far from perfect, but as you and alda have pointed out, given the current conditions it is the best chance this country has of getting out from under this 'crisis' (and it became a crisis when Mr. Harper pressed himself on Mme Jean instead of playing by the rules) before some permanent harm is done.

There isn't a lot of time left either: The results of the Quebec election - which will herald a revitalized Parti Quebecois in that province - will be out on Monday night.

Instead of December 8 being the beginning of new chance for civility and cooperation, it may well be the beginning of an attenuated period of conflict and dissention. The lack of support, reinforcement and allegiance to the ‘idea’ of a unified Canada and the recognition of what all Canadians ‘share’ will have suffered a significant blow.

And in the place of that necessary condition we have the rise of a coterie of Harper acolytes who are, in Rex Murphy’s words – little more than ‘partisan trolls’.

Champing at the bit!

From Tieleman:

"The Liberals and NDP - by proposing a coalition with Stephane Dion as Prime Minister and with the Bloc Quebecois in a key supporting role - have handed Harper a stunning victory in public opinion.

One must now hope that there is no election for a long time to come - because if there is the Liberals and NDP will have their heads handed to them on a platter!"

Just as the Dippers got slaughtered in the 70's after the minority Trudeau government decided that the best way to stay alive was to make sure that the Canadian populace knew that the NDP was NEVER going to have a share of power, so too will it be again.

The Conservatives must be positively champing at the bit to have a round three against the rudderless and depleted Liberals!

Are the rest of the commentators here not reading anything outside of the TYEE?

The polls may not be the 'real one' that counts and they are all saying the same thing = Conservative Landslide if held right now.

I think that the delay into January will cut into the Conservative lead and that the greatest winner will be the BQ, taking at least 52 seats and forming the "Official Opposition" just as they did opposite the Cretien Liberals at least one time in the past.

Get used to the attack now coming hard and fast against the NDP as they are going to be blamed for all sorts of wrongs (whether truth or not). The tail will be pinned on the Dippers by both the Conservatives and the Liberals, count on it.

The only hope for a stable period continues to be if the Liberals will actually keep their mouths shut and only bitch just enough to slow down the Conservatives until they have a new leader. I still think that a 'walk-in-the-snow' is overdue for Dion.

Solutions to dictatorship

If the public wants stability, then the smartest thing for the coalition to do now, is to coalesce. They should name their cabinet, come up with a budget and explain their plans for the first 100 days in office, with the Bloc giving clear agreement.

They should act as the government in waiting. They should set out all their policy plans, and make it clear to Canadians, not only that they can govern but that they rightfully should be considered government, because they are the majority in parliament.

When asked about Harper simply say, he has only delayed the inevitable. He is just someone out to save his own skin. He does not have the confidence of the House, and as such he is unfit to govern, and leave it at that, simply repeating the mantra of how our parliamentary system functions.

Succumbing to the whipsaw of polls is pure unadulterated idiocy. A tiny number of Canadians answering an oversimplified set of vague questions is not hard evidence the public is prepared to give the Conservatives a majority. That is wishful thinking.

Bill Tieleman your instincts are so horribly flawed, it's difficult to put into words. Harper has clearly demonstrated the danger he poses. He must be defeated. He clearly is incapable of putting the needs of the nation and its people ahead of his being right, and of doing things his way.

The only hope we have at this point is the coalition. All they need to do is demonstrate that they can form government, so all they have to do is run themselves like the government. Any other choice will be a confusing mish mash of running off in all directions. You can't run a government by opinion polls. It doesn't work. Policy, and especially budgets, are far too complex to determined by opinion polls.

Our democracy is built on the foundation of our interests being represented by an elected member of parliament, not a set of wishy washy questions put to someone trying to make their dinner. I mean just stop for a second and think how utterly f*cking idiotic that latter notion would be in practice.

While parliament is prorogued we are living in a dictatorship. That is a statement of literal truth. We are living in a dictatorship, because parliament's voice has been silenced by one man solely for the purpose of maintaining his power. That is a dictatorship. Stop and consider the implications of that for a moment. We are no longer a democracy.

There is only one response to dictatorship, and that is to form a legitimate government, and for us the only legitimate government is the coalition. The sooner its members realize this and coalesce in common purpose to remove our dictator from power, the better. Otherwise we will never get our democracy back.

Bill Tieleman - Thanks!

Good article, Bill. The issue of public opinion is important.

I am really starting to miss the days of Jean Chrétien.

At least then the public felt that they were in on the joke.

O Canada, We stand on guard for thee

Excellent points, James Burns.

I especially agree with your statement that the members of the coalition government must realize the critical necessity that they coalesce "in common purpose".

Then those of us who support the coalition must do the same - and stand firm with them in unblinking common purpose to remove this dictator from power.

Is that your answere

Force feed the electorate the goverment of someone else`s choice?

Parlimentary rules will give us another election if the opposition parties bring down the goverment, and I am fine with that.

What a lot of you are forgetting is that there are many NDP voters that are against the coalition,many Liberals are against the coalition and the majority of the Conservatives are seething over the prospect of a coalition.

Many of you are under the illusion that a stimulus package will save the economy,your wrong,we are a export nation,all provinces,we have relied on the world buying or products and our resources.

No amount of stimulus is going to save the Americans or Canada.

This depression will have to run it`s course.

quarry bay

quarry bay opines :

"This depression will have to run it`s course."

Perhaps, but as it runs it's course, Harper will have destroyed our social programs in an effort to save the collective ass of the Corporations. And your stocks won't help you much either, my friend.

I have supported the

I have supported the coalition, signed and spread the petition etc. etc.

Coalitions are penny a dozen and only the sick, Reform/CRAPP propaganda machine can see anything bad in them.

However, having been in this racket for many years, my greatest fear is that if the coalition, if there's still one in 6 weeks time, which is highly questionable, especially if the Libs put Ignatieff in as temporary leader.

If they force an election, I'm giving Harper an 80% chance for a majority on a sympathy vote and we can kiss Canada goodbye in 2 years.

The vast majority of the voters have absolutely no idea about what is going on.

This is why we have to have these ridiculous election campaigns, which would be totally unnecessary in real democracies, because the vote of the ignorant can change minute by minute.

The best example was Mulroney in 1984, campaigning on an anti FTA platform, then changed his mind 2 days after he was elected. Nobody paid any attention, because by then the promises have been forgotten.

In early 1988 he was down to about 12% in the polls. I was involved in the anti FTA campaign, informing people of its real purpose and consequences, and it was going very well.

Then a few days before the elections, big business put on a huge and expensive pro-FTA propaganda warfare and the polls shifted overnight in favour of the FTA.

But then started slipping.

Mulroney got his majority and Canada was sold off with 43% of the votes. If the elections had been held a few days later, he would have lost in a big way, but his propaganda machine knew how to warp people's minds, just as Harper's is doing it now.

Chretien campaigned on an anti NAFTA platform, then signed it without any public consultation, suddenly and practically in secret. Hew as still reelected, even after the terrible damage the NAFTA has done.

So much for politicians and the people who vote for them.

The biggest danger facing Canada today is a Harper majority and I hope the opposition have enough brains to do anything to prevent it.

Ed Deak, Big Lake.

One more thing

Since I see Bill T, pundits and commentors say that the Libs, NDP and Bloc should simply defeat the budget and make Harper come back with a new one it should be mentioned that if the Cons are defeated on a budget their gov't falls. They don't get to go back to the office to craft a new one. Again, that's the way the system works and it wasn't designed by Jack Layton.

Layton has already tried

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/549463

"If the Prime Minister calls me up and wants to meet, I have never refused and nor will I ever refuse," Layton said. "It's my responsibility. ... I don't trust him to implement these things, however. I don't. He's broken my trust."

Layton said he has already presented detailed economic ideas to Harper publicly and privately and they were rejected outright.

"We rolled out what we felt needed to happen and he rejected it flat out, both in private and in public," Layton said. "I mean, this guy was not interested in our ideas and that was patently obvious from the entire communication chain."

Layton dismissed a suggestion that, as the smaller party in the coalition, it is easier for the NDP to try to defeat the government at the earliest opportunity and leave to the Liberals the tough decision on whether to force an election.

"I've never looked at it that way. I've always said, we will stand up on what we believe and we'll do our calculation as though we were in the position to have a consequence," he said. "You hear it in the commentary: 'Well, they can make an easy decision because it wasn't going to make any difference.' I always say you're going to get judged by your actions and I don't mind being judged on my actions."

George Jonas, one of the few to the Right of the V. Sun

"Asking a coalition-of-the-more-rejected six weeks after an election to govern because they lacked confidence in the leadership of the less-rejected would have been a mockery.

What will happen in two months? We will be two months older and wiser. The government will have had a chance to table its budget. If a no-confidence vote follows, as it might, it will be rooted in some kind of reality, not just spleen and self-interest.

If the no-confidence coalition survives, Her Excellency will have to weigh whether it's more damaging to be governed by the worst rejects -- or to go to the polls again and, given the country's mood, perhaps risk returning with a Parliament very similar to the one at dissolution. She'll have to decide if it's in Canada's interest to spend hundreds of millions on another election for nothing.

Inviting the Liberal-Socialists at that time to try and form a coalition government may be the right decision. It depends on what happens between now and then. Inviting them next week would have been wrong for sure. "

Even he doesn't see the point of another election nor why its wrong for the Coalition to rule when when the budget is defeated.

It is obvious that the GG is

It is obvious that the GG is under the thumb of the Harper gang. They were brainwashing her for 2 hours before she signed the prorogation, which is totally unprecedented.

Legally, she should have insisted on the no-confidence vote and then ask the majority for form a government.

She didn't, no evidence that she'd been talking to anybody else, but Harper.

If the budget is defeated, it should, again, be obvious by now that she'll call an election and that will bring on the biggest propaganda campaign in Canadian history, selling Harper as the innocent victim of a coup.

As it is already going on and with apparent success.

The most important thing for now is to keep Harper from a majority at any cost. There are also noises in the Conservative party to get rid of Harper. They should be encouraged.

Ed Deak.

Ed

I don't think the G-G will call an election when the budget is defeated as long as the Libs are still able and willing. She'll confer with her advisers and hand the PM job to the Coalition.

As for the mob, I doubt their outrage has a long shelf life. Besides, some of them get educated each day and realize Charles Adler isn't where they should be getting their Civics lessons.

The present GG

Is she an airhead? We give virtually no attention to the position, other than to gripe about how much it costs -- just as we pay no attention to the rules that should make this whole schlemozzle unneccesary in the first place.

But the office of GG is essential to our particular form of governance -- we just don't know that, absorbed as we are in our collective navel-gazing.

"The proposed coalition government is not ready for prime time"

Tieleman's opening words appear to be the driving force behind the Liberal Parties frantic attempts to get a new leader in place before Dion can become our next PM. At least that is likely what they would have us believe. I think the Liberals know though, that if the coalition with Dion takes power, that Layton may well come off as a sort of surrogate leader. As evidenced on TV of late by the obvious bewildered looking Dion being directed by Layton.

I don't think that any new Liberal leader will be as open to sharing power with Layton, so the real danger would be that we have another election. Which according David Frums article in the Post, the Conservatives might not win. So we would be back to a two party system of Liberals and Conservatives.

NOT a budget.

The economic update that was the freak out item was NOT A BUDGET.

It was an attempt to 'stick it' to their opponents by the Conservatives for sure, and a budget? NOT.

What the opposition was going to do on its day in parliament, by tradition, is raise a NON-CONFIDENCE motion. This would have to be read and voted on three times. Since the troika was ready to 'bring-em-down' since the end of the election process it did not really matter what the Conservatives did, said or acted like...they were going to face this sort of approach.

In the end I think the Dippers and Libs messed up. They would have been better to keep this card close to the vest and play it IN THE HOUSE OF COMMONS on Opposition day and skewer the Conservatives.

Then they would have to pay and pay and pay to the BQ until they were ready to vote for their little coalition...

The next real trip to the polls will come out like 1972. Watch for the Dippers to get hammered hard.

Bill Tieleman is absolutely right and Jack Layton may want to take his chair home with him after the writ is dropped, just so he can prove he was actually in the House of Commons to his grandchildren.

give it a chance

Actually, Fiat Lux, at first I thought the same thing - that the GG was playing favorites by giving Harper a prorogue unfairly. And, to be sure, it WILL give the Cons machine a huge advantage to rev up their ad campaign by January to sway public opinion, and has, therefore, imo, been used in a dictatorial way.

By the same token, it ALSO gives the Coalition a chance, as Jonas says, to coalesce with a more finely tuned budget and true unity, and to also perhaps straighten out their apparent leadership dilemna (totally unnecessary as far as I'm concerned, as Dion would only be in for 3 months total, big deal). But if the coalition votes non-confidence after the budget, AND the GG allows them to take rule, the long term public perception will have to admit that she'd been fair to both sides.

More importantly, perhaps, in the meantime, as someone here said, with continual media pressure by those who support the coalition, more Conservative leaning voters will learn the history of coalitions, thus swaying a few more to the side that says, "give one a chance." If the GG is (unfortunately) swayed by public and media opinion, and not going by only historical precedents and legal council, then this is important. Time could be played to an advantage, here, if we use it wisely.

It worked..

The Opposition talk of a Coalition did exactly what it was supposed to do. Scare the sh*t out of Harper and show him that he didn't have the right to run roughshod and if he did, that he would be called on it.

In this case, I think we should wait. The budget will be presented in January and it will be loaded with goodies for all. That will make us happy and p*ss off the Harper supporters severely. It should be passed and Harper should be allowed to govern for a while longer. Why not let him take the heat for these tough times?

As time goes on, it will become apparent that he will not win a majority government next time and the Tories will replace him. Three strikes and he's out!

The Coalition was a good threat and I would have supported it if it came down to it, but I think now we should wait and see and back off if necessary.

There's always next time and now that the spectre has been raised, we can give Canadians time to adjust to the fact that in the future, it is very possible that it will happen.

sunshine coast girl

Good points.

As Kenny Rogers said:

"You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run."

It's time for the Coalition to fold 'em.

The Liberal Party will probably do what they are so good at, namely unceremoniously dump their leader, the new guy will not want to dilute his thrust for the Prize by playing footsie with Jack and his socialists. Imagine Bob Rae or Michael Ignatieff being obliged to call Jack or Gilles before making any decision, they'd avoid that like the plague!

They'll probably just send Jack this by e-mail:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8Tiz6INF7I

sunshine coast girl

Why not defeat the budget anyway - then adopt the parts of it that have merit - if there are any.

I think there's little doubt that the GG will offer the tocsin to the Coalition if they dump the Tories and there will be no election....

Leaving Harper in power is a BAD idea - his tactics demonstrate that he will never be a good leader for any but his acolytes...as Murphy says, he is a partisan troll...I'm just listening to his biographer (William Johnson of all people) describe him in precisely the same terms....R/man take note.

As for the precedent thing, I don't think anyone should beat up on Mme Jean, she followed the existing precedent from 1873.

The sad part is that, apart from one writer in the Globe on Friday, no one except yours truly appears to know a thing about it.

I'm not saying this to blow my own horn - here's the link to Valpy's article:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20081205.PARLGG05/TPStory/?query=Valpy

And here, in G West's comment to Owen's article...is the point I'm trying to make:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081205.wcoessay1206/CommentStory/GlobeSportsOther/

Next Question?

You'll have to take my word for it that I posted my comment before Valpy's article appeared - the comments aren't time stamped.

Harper manipulated this all

Your article would be useful, except it ignores the fact that Harper is so manipulative that I deem it likely that he knew such a coalition was in the works( thank god)
and pushed through a bill that would inspire a non-confidence vote.
Why?
Because as you say he knew the parties and especially the Liberals were not ready for it.
Personally I like Dion, but the majority of Canadians do not. Of course they do not because of Harpers slime campaign. That is irrevalant however because it was succesful in the election, and it was succeful now, in creating fear over a coalition led by Dion.
Of course , Harper is wise enough not to push the Dion angle now for that is already been set. No instead he plays on the anti-quebec feelings in a large majority of the fevered Canadian public.
What terrifies me most about Harper is that he relentlessly twists and manipulates. We should all be very very very afraid of this man and the people behind him .
ANd yes he did win, but only because it was his strategy all along. I must hand it to him, he or whoever is behind him are BRILLIANT chessplayers.

Just Who Do They Think They Are?

What follows will likely prove a PR slaughter. My guess is that Harper will easily manage to depict the more left-leaning coalition as presumptive (and therefore un-Canadian), not owing to PR cleverness--better produced You Tube videos and the like--but because Cdns are getting in the mood to blame all our troubles on those who embody a more positive sense of human/societal potential (i.e., liberals, with their preference for an open and tolerant society).

Tyee readers will of course see Harper's presumption, but for the most part they're not in the same head space as the rest who populate Canada. The Canadian Tire/Tim Horton Canadians, that is, those who prefer to imagine imagine themselves so they seem undescript and monotone, see in progressives an Apple-like inclination toward a colourful, rich, beautiful life, and it makes them furious (I wasn't allowed to be like that! You're not allowed to be like that!).

Again, if I'm wrong--good. It means, so-to-speak, that were moving beyond PC moguls towards mountainous Apple glory.

patrickmh

Supporting the conservative

Supporting the conservative postion in parliament after the election is not all simply due to others wants to lash out and blame others as Conservative but for other reasons.

Like we just had an election, he withdrew the very controversial measures and even though Canadians support many socially progressive positions, we do not as a whole support union rules in the workplace.

Of course schadenfreude at the way Central Canada has dominated the federal landscape could also be involved in majority support for the Cons.

note the only places with more support for the jello-suicide coagulation was in Toronto and Montreal - everywhere else it was reversed.

Take off your haters blinkers and just see it as it is. Try and accept the criticism with grace and understanding and not knee-jerk, reactionary everyone-not-agreeing-with-me-must-be-monsters mindset.

Nope, nope, and nope again

Nope, Sunshine Girl. Parties working for the public good should NEVER give up the opportunity to seize power when they have the chance.

I like what Martha Hall Findley had to say yesterday on CBC's The House, trying to explain why it's critical that the coalition take power right after the non confidence vote, the gist of which was this:

If an election is called, sooner or later, giving Harper a probable majority (voters punishing the coalition for all of this angst - angst fostered by the Cons), he'd eventually show his true colors pushing through even worse, draconian legislation than we've thus seen, including privatization and the SPP, and then there'd be no out for 4 more years.

If the coalition takes power now, and actually gets along, knowing Canadians' short memories, with time public anger will ebb and they'll begin to see that coalitions are, indeed, viable and sensible options. In the meantime, the coalition could do some great and solid work - that is if the corporate wing of the Libs don't rule.

Umm

I'm sorry MichaelT I don't understand - I'd say, on balance, the frothing at the mouth has been pretty well exclusively the tactic of the Harper forces.

The main question here is whether you believe in parliamentary democracy or not.

We now know that the Prime Minister doesn't - can I put you in his column as well? We also know that this is the form of government we've had since about 1848.

Mr Harper and his political father, Preston Manning, may have sold you on that change but I don't recall ever being given a vote on the question of turning Canada into a one party state.

That's what we have right now - please don't ask me to accept it with grace and understanding if YOU and the Prime Minister's supporters can't even make an effort to appreciate what you're up to.

No mud there my friend - and I think you'll find, if you look back over the posts here - that, apart from the occasional rhetorical flurry hear and there, most of us just wish that all Canadians had an understanding of what's at stake here.

erratum

'that's here and there' - my bad!

alda

Good in theory -- except that the Cons (as government) during the next 6 weeks, can "tweak" the economy negatively, and with little fear of discovery, so that the average Canuck, wondering just how he will be paying for the Xmas tab he is currently running up, never mind such essentials as groceries and mortgages, will gladly deal with the devil he knows, than with any coalition.

It is the Beginning of the End for Harper

Harper and his version of the Conservatives have gotten this far based on a well scripted and well executed plan. Easily enough to do when you have no real scruples. Ask anyone who has ever been taken in by a con artist.

However, the Harper/Flanagan plan is hitting a lot of bumps now. Harper's initial to recent political experiences have been a steady stream of small successes and he has been perceived as crafty and has enjoyed a nice portion of momentum.

Nowadays, however, he is screwing up and is no longer paving a smooth path, but is spending a lot of time managing gaffes and crises. He may be managing these gaffes/crises well, but, in the end, each one incrementally tarnishes his polished image and he himself is becoming risky, not only to Canadians in general, but to members of his own party. I would venture that there are more than one or two private meetings among various Conservative MPs discussing life after Harper and how they can speed up the process. There are plenty of Red Tories around to stir up the pot and would be happy to see the end of the Harper/Flanagan experiment.

Just as an aside, I find it quite interesting that Peter MacKay, one of the original architects of today's Conservative Party has been almost completely invisible. Next party leader hopeful? Anyone?

Cheers

Sunshine coast girl

Howdy neighbor, Roberts creek? say hello to Happy.

Where you at,hello from Garden Bay

G West,I think your jumping the gun as to saying they MUST VOTE DOWN THE BUDGET

Maybe it will be a great budget,we can hope.

So many elections,even before I was "stupid" enough or old enough to vote were over before the polls closed!

Liberal parties swept into power by Ontario and Quebec and BC mattered not.

Time seems to me to dull the memory of true facts, Trudeau,Ronald Reagan-Both remebered fondly,WHY

Reagan was an asshole,he created debt and treated citizens as slaves!

Trudeau,lol lol-- The great era,as a country we had ZERO debt, our dollar was worth 105.oo US. The best health care system for the time, Trudeau created in lock step with the Americans,a system of theft,cronism,giving away national assets to the corporation!

It started with Trudeau,the memory of french speaking party boy burns in the minds of westerners,WE DON`T WANT ANOTHER FRENCH LICK!

Rick,no I am not afraid of a coalition party,I think for the coalition to really work they must vow to join forces and unite,unite in a general election.

That won`t happen! The wanna be MPs will sharpen the knives,for there is only so many MPs that can run for office,all the losers Liberals and NDP that weren`t elected will be screaming bloody murder.

Don`t any of you forget,this is about money,this isn`t about an urge to create the greatest society the world has ever seen,this is about a lifetime paycheque,which was never so obviously displayed as with Elizabeth May,

The world be damned aslong as Lizzy gets a senate seat-Who was the other prominent green member who recently joined the BC Liberals?
Sadly you are all putting POLITICIANS upon a pedestal, I on the other hand regard them as "shoe scrappings"

Serious personality disorder?

I'd bet a medical text book will be written describing "Harper's Syndrome".

It would be written by Harper himself as he would not consider anyone else to be worthy enough to write it, disciplined enough to stay "on message" and loyal enough to not risk other people being described as having the same syndrome.

Can I make it any clearer

I along with many or even most Canadians would vote for a "new party" or a coalition but only in a general election.

That would be the only way I could support this entity,if they could find a way to work together in a general election,that would certainly relax my reservations.

Is that too much to ask?

I say to the Liberals,the NDP.the greens,go ahead,coalesce, unite,bring forth your slate of candigates. If they can stay together and serve up a national platform I would certainly vote for them!

Call me archaic or naive but if they can`t meet that one test.

G West--Would you not have any concerns if the Liberals and NDP and Greens said that if a general election is called that they WON`T JOIN FORCES,that they will run under their own parties?

That is my criteria-Make me a believer by uniting the parties,if not I will be voting for any reasonable independent!

Frank,as for Obama,he is talking about roads and bridges,I hav`nt heard him talking about liveable wages,about banning imports from slave nations,he wants to drill for oil,Obama doesn`t want paradise,Obama wants a return to the ninties, I agree that Obama was the Americans only choice.

The American experience(experiment) has failed.

China recently cancelled a visit to the Ueropean union because Sarkozy of France met with the Dhali lama of Tibet--Buddism is the one religion I respect.

There is only one way to save Canada and none of the parties platform`s go there.

Talk to --Ed Deak at big lake,Canada needs to shut it`s borders,we have everything we need here,food,water,energy,technology,we don`t need to be a commodity whore,we can`t,the American can`t cant compete with slave nations,Gordon Campbell might embrace the Chinese,I don`t

We can`t go on like this,we can`t go back to last year,it`s called "Parkinson`s law" growth requires growth and it`s doomed to failure.

The best explanation of how democracy works..

..was given this morning on CBC Radio on Michael Enright's show. I didn't catch the gentleman's name but it was calm and rational. Where did this silly notion come from the the party which gets the most but not a majority of seats is the only party or parties which can for governments. Just think we might one day have the Bloc with more seats than any of the others because there will be 10 political parties splitting up the rest of Canada. A BC Party, an Alberta Party, etc.

quarry bay

I like the current system - representative democracy in a parliamentary context. It has worked fine here - the opposition is supposed to oppose and that's what they've done. We just need a prime minister who plays by the rules - someone who can be trusted.

At this point Harper is playing chicken but, if he's voted down - on either the throne speech or the budget - so be it. That's the system and that's the way it is supposed to work.

I don't think there's any need to talk of an election - the precedent for giving the coalition a chance is clear - it has happened more than once, as had been demonstrated clearly, and that's what needs to happen this time.

If the coalition loses in a vote then there will be an election and that's just fine with me.

As for political promises about what's going to happen then - It's not worth talking about - I have nothing against a range of political parties and choices and I think coalitions are fine.

I'd like to see proportional representation and, in the end, I hope even the politicians will see that's a long-term approach.

It's pretty clear dictatorship won't work and no matter what we think, first past the post is going to leave a whole bunch of citizens on the outside looking in.

We've all seen how well THAT works!

So Many Ironies

This event is rife with ironies. Majority public opinion has been ignored throughout Harper's regime. He cannot logically rely on it now when it suits him, then ignore it when it doesn't suit him. Anyone who does so is exluded from a rational discussion.

Secondly, the plain rules of a Westminster parliamentary democracy provides for coalition governments. Period. Full stop. No provisos. No qualifications. Once a coalition government is formed, the electorate will have the opportunity to judge the outcome. Some coalitions result in good governance. Some don't. Just like majority governments. Same principle. We don't have an extra veto power just becuase its a first coalition government.

Thirdly, Canadians, wake up and take a risk. We've taken many risks voting in leaders like Gordon Campbell, Harper, Paul Martin, the list goes on. Give it a try. We might learn something.

Great coverage Tyee and Mr. Tieleman.

Out with Harper and his imported game plan

I say Bullshit. Canada precisely needs this exercise, it is our Democracy, let's make it work. I believe the coalition will be able to govern very well. Particularly with the NDP stiffening the ranks. We need them in cabinet making decisions that will be good for all Canadians not the chosen few.

and zero criticism of my

and zero criticism of my central thesis only shots from the fringes where you shall remain forever if you continue down this path.

You have one hope and one hope alone. Join the liberal party and get Rae chosen leader - resign from the ndp if you have to otherwise Mr. Ignatieff will be the leader and he will support the Cons in the house for the most part.

Any hope of achieving power under the ndp banner is gone forever. but of course you can all be blowhards in a small gasbag rather than actually doing what it takes to get majority support - it's your choice.

Whining about things you do nothing to resolve other than wankfesting is a pointless exercise and a waste of brains.

If you give me a spade, I'll burry your pain

I could imagine most of the Harper mafia feeling very alienated. Their aversion to examine their own dark side and evolve threatens our survival. The frugality that can lead us to a carrying capacity in the pursuit of happiness in balance with nature is still being swept under the carpet. While our economy & biosphere continues to sink, the fundamentalist WWF media frenzy may continually devolve into a multi-faceted fart joke of contradictions… eventually empowering people by understanding that our gardens and neighbors will play a larger role in our future then our televisions and elected officials.

The world is full of people who think they know what’s good for you and me. I hope the news anchors take this wonderful opportunity before them to grow some balls. The media makes and breaks popes and presidents, and possibly planets. I mean if this is it, this is the end of the age of oil… grab that audience and rock the waves of Armageddon. “Take these plastic people, read their lips… now let it linger, is there anything that makes them sound sincere? Tightly hold your hand, take a deep breath, and give them the finger... are you worried that your thoughts are not quite clear? “Because this process that is under way will take the control freak by the short and curly and throw them against the wall. This last minute power grab is the last dying gasp of the dinosaur age, exacerbating one last pedal to the medal, one last big gulp, and thumb suck for the carefully tiled conscience of brainwashed bliss ninny dumb masses. Consensus will come if not out of will, then necessity. The current system of governance is a cancer and end in itself. Harper and his constituents will be eliminated. Get ready for the next wave.

Not to preach to the quire here, but helping our neighbors and running our fingers through the dirt in the garden, breathing the beautiful air, and growing our own food isn’t such a frightening thing. Maybe it is frightening to Monsanto and other stains in Harper's back pocket, but not for us. Frugality and sustainability in transition should be what the media is all about. The changes that are coming are going to happen far faster than any government can dare dream of. The more we can help ourselves, the more we can teach people as well, taking the strain off us. We put our faith into a bankrupt™ system and government that has NO FUTURE… I’d much rather put faith in PLANKTON, DIRT, and my FRIENDS.

We are the universe looking back at itself. This is what has been going on all over the cosmos, and always will for all eternity. Some people get it, and some people don’t. That’s ok. We had our glimpse, and soon nature will take back the wheel. The overwhelming majority of human beings are on our side, and mother nature is on our side. What a wonderful time to be alive because we get to absolutely shift our world towards something that is worth living and dying for.

Tyler.

Saltery Bay

I don't want a merger of the NDP, Greens and Liberals. They have different ideas, priorities and policies and I see no reason to limit voter choice to a vanilla version of the so-called Left.

A coalition is preferred because each elected MP brings the ideas and priorities of his or her party to the coalition table. Something that wouldn't happen in a merged party as the party would weed out at the nomination level those a little different from that new party's centre.

Once a coalition has been formed it allows for give and take, compromise based on the amount of seats each party brings to the table.

Coalition gambit has changed the tone of this government

It's hard for me to understand why the likely failure of the coalition to take power is being taken as such a disaster.

Consider the alternative. The opposition has a mandate to keep the government in line. In a minority situation, they are there to represent the interests of the majority when, in their view, the government is not doing so. When the economic update turned out to have so little to offer, the opposition parties had a duty to oppose it. So, there were just two alternatives, if we follow this through. Either the obvious one (call another election less than two months after the last), or form the government themselves. I think proposing to do just that was a bold move, and illustrates that the opposition is doing its job and not simply leaving the minority Conservatives to set the course of the country as they saw fit (a rather distasteful tendency in the last parliament).

While this gambit may not have succeeded, I think it will have some positive effects on how the current government works. Pragmatically, the political party funding proposal is likely off the table for this session. More importantly, it's put Mr. Harper and his Conservatives on notice that he won't be able to push this opposition around as he did in the last session. The budget next month, according to the reports I've read, will actually incorporate ideas from the opposition parties! It will have a stimulus package. So, I think the coalition tactic will have pushed Harper into actually behaving like he's in charge of a minority government, not a majority one.

I really don't see why like Afghanistan and the $50 billion tax cut are at issue here. To form a coalition, common ground has to be found. It's not like we would expect the coalition to extend the mission in Afghanistan, or grant more tax cuts; if that were the case, I would expect the NDP to refuse to go along. In this case, it's just a question of whether they go along if the coalition does not reverse these items (and remember that the Afghanistan mission was established by the Liberals). I think agreeing to leave these issues alone is eminently sensible if they can address other issues of common concern.

No one wants a new election just yet. It's at Mr. Harper's desk that the "buck stops", however. If his government falls, it's ultimately because of his failure to ensure that enough opposition members are onside. That can't be taken for granted any more.

It wouldn't even surprise me if the Liberals refuse to go along with his over-use of "confidence motions" to get favoured bills passed in the new session. After all, if he chooses to declare some non-money bill a "confidence motion" and doesn't get their support (NDP and Bloc support is generally not expected and usually not given), he is the one that needs to make the trip up to Rideau Hall and explain why this bill was so important that he cannot stand in front of the house as Prime Minister any longer.

Tyler/Revenese

Tyler,

You sound like a pretty interesting person who probably gives and gets a lot of love from friends. I genuinely would hope that some of the "brainwashed bliss ninny dumb masses" one day have the good fortune of maybe being your friend for awhile. I would encourage you, though, maybe not to call them these names--they might just be amongst the lost, in need of kindness, the helping touch.

patrickmh

Has no one else but Frank noticed?

What's been largely avoided so far in this discussion is economics - most particularly just where the Coalition would go with economic policies, beyond the typical Leftist social strategies.

Perhaps Harper called his early election because he got wind of Obama's intentions and didn't want to debate them in a Canadian forum which would be favourable to them.

At least that's what I'm thinking after reading the link Frank has supplied, and which I think is perhaps the most important link that has appeared in the Tyee for some time. It's well worth reposting :

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/us/politics/07radio.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

Clearly, Obama has opted for a Keynesian solution for getting out of the American economic dilemma. For a long time now, Canadian neocons have propagandised that such a strategy is pure Socialism, and the Yanks have gone even further, describing it as "Communism".

There is no doubt whatever that Harper (and probably Campbell too) is a strong beiever in Friedman-style economics in which allowing "The Market" full sway will heal all, as seen in his reasons for his refusal to bail out the auto industry in Ontario.

Obviously there is now - or should be - a clear demarcation between the economic policies of the Coalition and Harper. I can't see how Harper can now avoid an out-front debate that should put him in an untenable position, given that his economic strategies are precisely the kind that have resulted in the current melt-down.

re: Patrick McEvoy

Thank you for your humbling response. I don't mean to echo the essence of parliament hill. Sometimes I can be a "brainwashed bliss ninny dumb mass" as well.

the coalitions will be toast

the coalitions will be toast even before i predicted. looks like dion will resign tomorrow and ignatieff will become the new liberal (not interim) leader b/c leblanc has agreed to drop out of the race and support him. see ya later liberal/ndp'er bob rae! ignatieff is smart enough to realize that the libs need to rebuild the party, gain some credibility after this 'coalition for canada and quebec disaster' and try to win power legitimately. that may take quite some time.

So Un-Canada

On one hand, those of you with clearly partisan views want to give the coalition a chance. However, it appears that the coalition isn't hanging together even as we debate on these threads. The GG had to give the PM the suspension of Parliament. Ultimately, if you think the coalition should govern Canada let's see if I can last until the end of January. And if the coalition is serious and can be taken seriously let them make a non-confidence vote and win the election as a coalition.

And those of you wanting more Keynesian govt intervention and subsidy in the Canadian economy ought to observe that the Canadian financial system has not been afflicted as badly as the US one. Therefore, don't panic and call for more govt spending.

we shall see me2. i

we shall see me2. i guarantee that the budget proposed last thursday will pass on jan.27th anyway. in fact it looks like harper should have called their bluff and see who showed up for the vote tomorrow. they'd have had the weekend to absorb the significance of the overwhelming results of the polls. this may be the best thing that ever happened to the cpc.

Coalitions; consultations and liars

September 9, 2004
Her Excellency the Right Honourable Adrienne Clarkson,
C.C., C.M.M., C.O.M., C.D.
Governor General
Rideau Hall
1 Sussex Drive
Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0A1

Excellency,

As leaders of the opposition parties, we are well aware that, given the Liberal minority government, you could be asked by the Prime Minister to dissolve the 38th Parliament at any time should the House of Commons fail to support some part of the government's program.

We respectfully point out that the opposition parties, who together constitute a majority in the House, have been in close consultation. We believe that, should a request for dissolution arise this should give you cause, as constitutional practice has determined, to consult the opposition leaders and consider all of your options before exercising your constitutional authority.

Your attention to this matter is appreciated.

Sincerely,

Hon. Stephen Harper, P.C., M.P.
Leader of the Opposition
Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada

Gilles Duceppe, M.P.
Leader of the Bloc Quebecois

Jack Layton, M.P.
Leader of the New Democratic Party

reality is perspective

polls are one thing but all I know is that I haven't met one person who supports Harper on this issue. He lost all credibility when he tried to ram un-Canadian changes through when he was never given a mandate to make such changes. People do notice when there is a marked difference between what needs to be done and what is proposed and Harper proposed nothing to help the economic situation. People I speak to, and the boards on many news sites I've been reading (mainstream media sites), are strongly in favor of the coalition, so it's definitely interesting how there is such a media frenzy against the coalition. That of course is leading to these polls. Time will only tell how this plays out, but I have faith that the majority of Canadians can see through the Conservative and corporate propaganda. 62% of Canadians didn't support Harper last election, and I don't see that changing after this debacle.

'Rational Thought'

There are some Canadians out there that perhaps you have yet to meet.

Here's a Poll from the Globe & Mail last week:

"Do you support the Liberal-NDP coalition's bid for power?

Yes
48% 23023 votes
23023 votes

No
52% 24555 votes
24555 votes"

This from Reuters, Dec.5.08

"A Strategic Counsel poll in Friday's Globe and Mail newspaper put the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals 45 to 24 percent, with the New Democrats trailing at 14 percent.

This compares with the Oct. 14 electoral result of 37.6 percent for the Conservatives, 26.2 percent for the Liberals and 18.2 percent for the New Democrats.

An Ipsos Reid survey released on Friday in Canwest newspapers put the Conservatives at 46 percent, the Liberals at 23 percent and the New Democrats at 13 percent.

An Ekos poll released the night before showed a 20-point lead for the Conservatives."

You say, "He lost all credibility when he tried to ram un-Canadian changes through". Harper made a miscalculation by probably imagining that Canada was ready for Campaign Financing 2.0. He must have taken inspiration from the Barack Obama success and noted that the Obama Campaign didn't take any money from taxpayers but only from passionate supporters (In 2008, Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, decided not to take matching funds.).

The leaders of the Liberal, NDP and Bloc Québecois Parties were not ready for this 2.0 stuff and in unison came out and in effect saying that no matter how many people were losing their jobs they wanted to make sure that their government cheques kept on coming! They came down strongly on John McCain's side on this (Republican John McCain elected to take public financing.). They just don't feel that the Canadian people support them passionately enough to the point where they can get along with those taxpayer subsidies, call it political party welfare if you like.

Rest assured though that if you walk down the street at least half the people you see do not support the Coalition, as the polls overwhelming show. Perhaps the people you have met are being less than candid when they speak. There's even much talk today that the so-called leader of the Coalition will resign as early as today!

Too bad. I was so looking forward to the next campaign leaders debate and seeing the opposition leaders gushingly fawning over each other.

correction

3rd paragraph,

They just don't feel that the Canadian people support them passionately enough to the point where they can get along ❛WITHOUT❜ those taxpayer subsidies, call it political party welfare if you like.

of course...

G West

I think that Canadians are really afraid of what they don't know. Most people are. And the Tories are excellent at fanning the flames of their fear; just like GW was with the Americans. I'm afraid that with all the fear the GG will not allow the Coalition to take over and instead will call an election. Canadians have short attention spans, but not that short and if an election is called early next year a whole lot more "freaked out" people will show up to vote than usually do. And it won't go well for us. I think we need to postpone an election for a bit longer. Harper may be a partisan troll, but he's a very manipulative one.

Alda, I think a Coalition would be a great thing for this country, but I don't believe that the GG will allow it and if we push it and we end up getting an election, we'll be hooped!! Just not sure enough to take that chance.

Hi Quarry Bay, Happy. I'm in Gibsons.

sunshine coast girl

If the Governor General does that, she will clearly break with precedent.

She must perform her duty without the slightest regard for what's going on in the country - or for the personalities of the individuals or the passions involved.

Whether or not the coalition gets a chance to govern is merely a consequence of the result of the Harper forces losing a non-confidence vote in the House - that's all.

All the speculation about what happened at Government House last Thursday is pretty idle, in my view. Michael Valpy covered it very well in the Globe on the the 5th and, given my understanding of the constitution and the precedents, he got it exactly right.

If you're interested in more detail I'd be happy to share what I know about the situation - you can contact me at

to G West

Yup, G West.

And in that case, we're hooped anyway, because if the Tories stay in power they can use some special billing law (I forget the name) -- just like Bush's special presidential powers -- to sign and push through bills they want to implement, regardless. And, if there is an election, Canadians are apparently so ticked off at the coalition (not that I necessarily believe it), then we're toast, anyway, getting a supposed majority. So why not go for it now? It's not a given that the GG will forbid it.

PS. I don't know what I was thinking when I responded to someone above that Iggy "might" go for the coalition; I understand his right wing bent far better than that.

How Harper learned lessons of history

Benito Mussolini did much the same as Harper, used the media to appeal to the population in exactly the same type of economic crisis. I think Harper is just copying his assent to power.
He is already close. He now governs without the confidence of parliament. Shame on the GG for letting it happen.
It would have been so simple (and so normal in a democracy) to let power go to a coalition who had a signed agreement.
But no, this is canada and common sense is pretty scarce. It was not up to the gg to judge how long the coalition would last.
She has shown contempt for a written agreement between the leaders of 3 partys.. Pretty low behaviour which actually demeans the democratic process.
Look at the alternative, it has failed twice, once when harper broke his rule and again right now. Harper has proved unfit to govern but oddballs continue to throw banannas in front of the left wing coalition. Really stupid behaviour. The NDP getting cabinet posts and you guys rejecting it! People should wake up and look around. Coalition government is quite normal. The bloq are not killing anyone so it is quite ok that they support the coalition. (In the interests of poorer canadians, it should be noted) Commendable behaviour. Far better than the alternative government that tielman seems to want, by default, more of harper bending us over.
Nice attitude from the so called left.
You should be seeing the awful legal weaknesses in our system and trying to rectify them. We have allowed a dictator to take over (even if only till the end of January). It could get a whole lot worse.
These things can happen anywhere. There is no such thing as "never in Canada" or "it cannot happen here" it is happening right now.

Will the Liberals lose their nerve?

Will the Liberals pay big for a failed gamble? If it fails, yes. I can see Jack Layton in the next federal campaign: "We did everything we possible could to work with the Liberals. We even offered them a coalition. But too many of them turned out to be Conservatives wearing red ties."

So I predict the Liberals will not lose their nerve. The train has left the station. They will listen carefully to the budget speech, vote Harper out, and take office in coalition with the NDP. They will never get a better deal with Duceppe than the deal they have now: a blank cheque for 18 months, with nothing but "consultation" until the first 18 months are up and the Bloc finally gets to try for something more they can show Quebec voters beyond stopping Harper. That was the mandate they won 49 seats on, and it will have to do for 18 months.

Paying for campaign advertising.

I think GWest's advocacy of Australia's requiring citizens to vote is spot on, even though - IMO - that seems to be favouring Right-wing sentiments in that country.

And while I agree that the $1,95 per vote goes a long way towards leveling the propaganda / advertising playing field, the capping of the individual's donation amount accomplishes nothing more than the devising of strategemns which bypass the restriction.

My guess is that Corporations now funnel their contributions through individuals, and that proof of this might be found by oomparing the average size of today's individual contributions to the Conmen with those of the past.

In the interests of fairness, ALL funding for campaign advertising should be limited to that gained only by the $1.95 method. First-time Parties could have a per candidate cap on spending.

polls, eh?

It would be interesting to see Harper et al so enthusiastic about the polls showing a majority of Canadians don't think we should be in Afghanistan, or who don't support closer ties with the US, etc.

Only at Timmies!

alive wrote:
"Has anyone considered that this $1.95 per vote could be handed back to the voter directly?
Imagine how many people suddenly would find a reason to vote!
With luck at least some of them would also bother to study up on which party they should grace with their vote?"

Sure, better have polling stations in Tim Hortons in the future, folks seem willing to stand in long lines there for much longer time than at a 'regular' polling station...at least then you can get a donut, focus on the hole and wonder where your vote money went!

Fish bonker

Looks like Iggy had the fish bonker all along and has taken Dion for a little 'walk in the snow'.

I still think that the 'coalition' plan is toast.

Ignatief would be branded a supreme fool by the Liberal brass and 'back room boys' if he handed the keys to the PMO to any political contender.

In Canada, politics is very nearly a blood sport. Trusting an opponent as much as is needed to get a coalition to work is like sleeping in a tank of Piranhas.

Quebec

42% Liberal; 35% PQ; 17% ADQ; others 6%.
Congratulations Mr Harper.

good points

Siamdave: I thought the same thing. Hypocrisy rules.

BrianWhite:
Right you are. It's this or nothing. I hope Wilf Day is right, but the Bay Street LIBERAL Boys put Dion out on the street with the garbage, because he actually acted like a leader for a few days and that was their biggest fear. The LAST thing they want is a coalition with the NDP. They'd take one with the Dinosaur Party from the Neoandrathal age if they thought it could get them into power, but never the NDs. Did you see Hedy Fry and Carolyn Bennett (sp?) on TV today? Their anger was palpable.

If the gang falls apart, I can hardly wait to see the draconian laws Mr. Harper will enact. We ain't seen nothin' yet.... and the SPP will march on.

18 more! Not too shabby

Mr. Charest is the first Quebec premier to win three consecutive elections since Maurice Duplessis won his fourth mandate in 1956.

The Liberals clinched 66 seats, three more than they needed to form a majority and 18 more than they won in the last provincial election.

PQ Leader Pauline Marois;
"Even if we are a little disappointed tonight, the great dream that we have for Quebec is still alive and it is our job to keep up the hope.

Although the result is not likely what the PQ had in its sights when Liberal Leader Jean Charest called the election on Nov. 5, Marois has rebuilt a venerable Quebec political institution."

Well, Frank, the PQ almost gained as many new seats as the Liberals but not enough to say that there was a surge of equal proportions to the surge the Liberals did get. The Liberals also won a third, best result in over half a century.

You can call it a PQ surge if you like Frank but Charest notched up a couple of records and a new majority, so whatever anyone wants to call it Charest is home free.

realisticman

You're arguing for the sake of arguing.

As I said last week the real story is the collapse of Harper's allies, the ADQ. They came in 2nd last time, this time they were almost wiped out.

Luke's poll which was taken only 3 days before the election and which Luke called, as he tends to, "the gold standard" and "bang on" etc predicted the PQ would get the same popular vote it got last time, 29%, they got 6% more than that in just the last 3 days of campaigning.

Is this why you support the Conservatives come hell or high water? A refusal to accept the facts and a love of spin?

Recession

The Bank of Canada says it's not 'technical' any longer - although the 75,000 people who lost jobs last month don't think that's a big surprise either.

I guess you noticed that the prime rate fell 75 basis points....not that it will help much because monetary policy is like pushing on a string without some fiscal policy to match.

Since the doors of parliament are still locked I wonder what the maximum leader of the banana republic of Canada will do next - encourage the Bank to lower the rate a little more?

Looks pretty much like free money - given the rate of inflation to me.

"Now slit your throats"

Bill,
Harper's Economic and Fiscal Statement was a huge and deliberate red flag. Business as usual on the economy, attack several sacred cows to ANY left or central party, and the coup-de-grace, remove the party funding mechanism. The latter was passed by majority Liberal Government and I was unaware it was unpopular until I recently heard that a poll claimed that approx. 60% of Canadians oppose it.

Anyhow, it is like Stephen Harper is the head of a club you belong to. He hands and knives and tells you his agenda. You blanche a bit, but you still want to show you're a player. Then your club leader tells you than when he says 'go', you use the knife to slit your throat.

What choice did the Liberals have? They COULD NOT have supported the Statement. Maybe the Coalition was wrong, but they had to do something.

I've come around to the theory that the whole mess was part of a vicious plot to try to wipe out the Liberals when they are weak. The reality is that Bloc leader Duceppe could campaign on cruise control and still get 35 to 40 seats in an election, 12 to 15% of the seats in Parliament. I think Harper’s attempting to make the Bloc irrelevant to a majority by decimating the Liberals when they are weak.

This is political theatre of the nastiest kind. Harper wants the 'muscular majority' he was denied. If he gets it, WATCH out! Then our Prime Minister will be a cold, calculating, control freak of an evangelical Christian who still believes in Reaganomics.

I shudder at the thought...

Hi GWest

She's already taken into regard what's going on in the country by granting the progation for no other reason than to avoid a self-induced confidence vote. It's my understanding that given the receipt of the letter from the Coalition offering to govern that she should have accepted that. She didn't.

sunshine coast girl

Lots of that kind of misapprehension going round. That wouldn't be appropriate - she has to stay impartial, above the fray and she can't pay any attention to anything except what happens in the House and what Harper drags to her doorstep ‘in a small canvas bag’ as it were.

She acts at the direction of the Prime Minister EXCEPT when the confidence of the House has been lost - since there was no 'real' loss of confidence (for which needs a vote in the house) the weight of precedent goes to a decision from 1873. Once again, it has, as is proper - absolutely NOTHING to do with what the people or their advocates say or do.

As repellant as the current contretemps is, it is less odious that the prospect of the Crown stepping in and playing favourites, in my view.

I have the details - I just hesitate to post them here because we're really past that now. As I said, send me an email.

Cheers.

to Dave 49

I agree and think the Libs are a divided, snake-infiltrated party. If they'd had the moral integrity to stand behind Dion, no matter how unpopular for 8 more weeks, then pushed up the election date to late February, meanwhile turning a consolidated attack on Harper, they could have done it. MSM be damned.

It's clear in hindsight (and in foresight that was temporarily ignored by many of us, so excited by the prospect of a union) that the Bay Street backboys of the party DON'T WANT coalition with progressives, and never will. Thus, they knived both Dion and Rae.

If Ignatieff snubs the coalition, they'll lose all credibility for progressives, and I hope in the process, get their just deserts ("deserts" not a typo, that is the authentic word).

Good piece by Laxner on this on Rabble.ca, today, by the way.

Harper is the problem

The coalition is under assault by a well funded and well staffed disinformation campaign financed by the conservative money machine.Harper is not only putting his own political future above that of Canada,he is using typical reform party racism to split the country.Every move he has made since the election has been proof that he has no intention of changing his partisan policies and bully tactics.It would be the best thing for Canada if he resigned for the good of the country.There would be no talk of defeating the conservative government if Harper stepped down as it is Harper himself who has made all the decisions since he took office.

Re Iggy

If Iggy turns down the Coalition, as he appears to be contemplating, the only way for the Libs to win the next election some time in the future will be for him to court the Right / Center-right.

In that case, I would withdraw my guess made a couple of weeks ago, that all the Libs need to win any coming election would be to get a new leader.

And if he is NOT going to support the Coalition, where in Hell was the need for the haste in put a new leader in place, other than to sewer Rae's chances?

Justice Prevails

Canada has just survived an attempted coup.

The disparate schemers should be punished for attempting to usurp the laws of this country.

Imagine, the federal Liberal party rejected Stéphane Dion and he resigned; then every member of this same party signed a letter that went to the Governor General requesting that she install this same Dion as Prime Minister!

A record emerged that showed that the purported reason for the imposition of Dion was untrue. It was planned no matter what the financial proposal of the government.

A personal dislike that may exist of one politician is no reason to launch a coup attempt.

Thank god that the people rallied against this and overwhelmingly demonstrated that they did not support the coup. Kudos to Bill Tieleman for taking a position that he knew would go against those that normally support him but this time he knew were driven by blind ideology alone. He is being proved right.

The conspirators are dropping like flies and hopefully there will soon be another election and the electorate will clearly explain to the Liberals and the NDP that what was attempted was outrageous.

Frank

Have you heard the latest?

Iggy, when questioned about the coalition made reference that it may be possible but---

Since the NDP and Bloc agree that they don`t like the Harper goverment and they agree that they will back the coalition there is no reason to have any socialists having ANY CABINET SEATS.

So there it is Frank, the Liberals are calling the Bloc separtists and the NDP socialists.

But if they are willing to allow the Liberals to form goverment and let the Liberals have ALL THE CABINET SEATS maybe there will ba a coalition!

You can`t trust a liberal, Jack is looking pretty silly holding that empty bag.

P.S. Campbell has just added another 3 million to the payroll-A 9 member economic panel to advise the BC Liberals on how to keep BC strong for the future generations,led by the famous floor crosser David Emerson

Jack looks pretty good

Actually, Jack isn't looking "pretty silly holding that empty bag." He, like Dion, is looking like someone reasonable and accomodating, someone willing to accede a certain amount of power to push for the common good and to "get along," which is what Canadians facetiously say they want.

It's the Libs who, with their undemocratic annointment of Ignatieff, look greedy for power. In the next decade, it'll be very funny and deserving if, as Laxer intimated in his editorial on Rabble, Canadians figure out what's been true along -- that the Cons and the corporate faction of the Libs are 2 sides of the same coin, and that the Libs will be forced to make coalitions with the Cons to fight off the progressive movement coming at them from the NDP, Bloc, and Greens.

One can only hope, that, as by that time they'll be reaping the rewards of neo-con draconian government, Canadians finally come to their senses.

realisticman

"We didn't promise a full budget. We promised some immediate actions, some actions in the interim which had to be done immediately," he said, without providing details of what his larger budget might include.

And you point is? He didn't offer anything, and is now only talking about piecemeal moves because he will have to or be swept out of power. That's not leadership, nor responsible government. He simply doesn't have a plan because it is not in his ideology. He wants a weak economy and populace to be able to ram through his changes that destroy the social fabric of this country.