Opinion

BC's Spring Vote, Through Lens of Obama's Victory

Lessons from the US presidential contest.

By Will McMartin, 5 Nov 2008, TheTyee.ca

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Voters in the United States yesterday elected a first-term U.S. senator from Illinois, a 47-year-old black man, Barack Obama, as their 44th president. Does this historic result and its preceding election campaign offer any insights into the next six months in British Columbia as B.C. voters prepare to go to the polls on May 12, 2009?

The following is a quick calculation of how Barack Obama's election victory presages either the re-election of Gordon Campbell and his BC Liberal government, or victory for Carol James and her New Democratic Party, the province's official Opposition.

There are five election factors on which Campbell's Liberals and James's New Democrats are ranked on a scale of one-to-five. The total points are calculated at the end.

1. 'Change'

With hindsight, it seems obvious that American voters in 2008 thirsted for political "change." Yet for some reason, that notion eluded Hillary Clinton, the New York senator and former first lady, and the high-priced professionals working on her candidacy in the Democratic party primaries.

Month after month, Clinton trumpeted her personal and political "experience" so as to draw a sharp contrast with Obama, the relatively unknown rookie in the U.S. Senate. In most state primaries and caucuses, from January in Iowa through August and the national convention in Denver, Democratic party voters opted for the latter.

That fact was not lost on the Republican nominee and Arizona Senator, John McCain -- it was one of the key reasons he selected another virtual unknown and a woman, the Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, as his running mate. And, for a week or two after the GOP convention, his choice resonated with many American voters. But Obama's persistent linkage of McCain with two-term president George W. Bush (in concert with Palin's fading star) soon restored the Democrat's lead over his Republican rival.

Initially, the U.S. public's desire for change stemmed from a general weariness with Bush's eight-year presidency, emphasized by ongoing antipathy to the lengthy war in Iraq. But in recent months, Americans also have become increasingly anxious over economic recession, rising unemployment, sky-high gasoline prices, plummeting home values and an explosion in foreclosures.

This sentiment was heightened by the failure or near-collapse of several of the country's largest financial institutions, followed by the federal government's near-frantic decision to expend hundreds of billions of dollars to "bail-out" Wall Street.

For skittish American voters, the political status quo seemed neither realistic nor desirable, especially when the advocate for an alternative view was an articulate, intelligent, youthful and inspirational figure whose very candidacy signified change.

How strong is the desire for "change" in British Columbia? At present, not very. To be sure, those to the left-of-centre fervently hope for the defeat of Gordon Campbell and his BC Liberals, but it is far from evident that this sentiment is widely shared. At present, the desire for change seems evenly balanced with a desire for stability and the status quo.

Should that balance shift toward a general sentiment for change over the next six months, however -- either because of a deteriorating economy and worsening provincial finances, or another factor such as political scandal -- then James and the NDP would enjoy a considerable advantage because their very election to government, as with Obama, would signify change.

Campbell and his BC Liberals, meanwhile, would be forced to promise or demonstrate that change was possible through their re-election. They would need to change at least some of their policies (perhaps altering or scrapping the carbon tax, or accepting a fiscal deficit) or personnel (a cabinet shuffle and/or new "star" candidates).

In the event that change becomes the dominant theme in B.C.'s next general election, as it was in the U.S. presidential contest, the New Democrats will be favoured.

Points out of 5:
Carole James and the New Democrats, 4
Gordon Campbell and the BC Liberals, 2

2. Economic crisis and impending fiscal challenges

There are at least two major issues here. First, who or what is responsible for the current economic downturn? Second, who is best able to manage economic and fiscal challenges?

In the United States, the easy and widely accepted answer to the first question was George W. Bush and his policies, especially the costly war in Iraq, deregulation of the financial services sector and the rise in the price of oil. For most voters, this observation underscored the need for change.

Had the crisis facing America instead come from an expanded war or imminent threat of terrorism, McCain, an older and more-experienced politician than Obama, and a former war-hero, might have argued with greater cogency that he was better suited than his opponent for challenging times.

But when the economy headed south, McCain faltered, at first claiming that the country's economic fundamentals were sound, and later briefly suspending his campaign to emphasize the severity of the crisis. He appeared erratic and ill-prepared.

In time, and especially in contrast to his opponent, the younger, less-experienced Obama seemed the calmer, steadier hand who could steer the ship of state through turbulent economic waters.

Unlike the United States, which now is in a recession, British Columbia only faces the possibility of a sharp downturn. And where McCain was tarnished by Bush's failed economic and fiscal policies over the past eight years, most British Columbians believe that the provincial economy has performed extremely well since Campbell and his BC Liberals were elected to government in 2001.

But what if B.C. actually does experience an economic slowdown; which leader and party would most voters prefer to handle that crisis should it appear? Campbell likely would emphasize his experience, and might even attempt to reprise Bill Bennett's "tough-guy" approach that took the Socreds to a surprise re-election victory in 1983. James probably would promote a compassionate approach to economic uncertainty and government finances. Both would be hamstrung by their commitment to a balanced budget.

In this category, Campbell's Liberals enjoy a slight advantage, although all bets are off in the event that B.C.'s economy and provincial finances suddenly and dramatically go to hell in a handcart.

Points out of 5:
Campbell and the BC Liberals, 4
James and the New Democrats, 3

3. Policies

Was there an appreciable difference between Obama's policies and those of McCain? Did anybody even take note of their policy platforms?

More to the point, when economic recession threatens jobs, home ownership and government finances, do policies other than fiscal or economic matter to most voters?

To be sure, there are salient issues that divide Americans -- abortion and the war in Iraq, to mention just two -- and no doubt some voters were influenced by local, religious or ideological factors. None, however, appeared to play a decisive role in the nation-wide presidential election campaign.

Will a dominant issue emerge in British Columbia before next May? Both parties claim to believe in balanced budgets, affordable taxes, a clean environment, safe streets, a well-funded public education system, a quality public health care system and much, much more. What are the specific areas where they disagree?

Many voters, those who strongly identify with either the left or the right, already know which party they will vote for or against next May; policies are merely something to argue about. The same is true for single-issue voters who care not a whit for matters outside of their specific area of concern.

But what about those British Columbians who are truly undecided? Well, that's why both major parties are in the field, polling to plumb voters' sentiment and test-drive policies and slogans. We'll find out what they've ascertained when the election nears.

In the end, if the economy goes into a tailspin and the government's finances suffer accordingly, none of it will matter. For now, it's a wash.

Points out of 5:
James and the New Democrats, 3
Campbell and the BC Liberals, 3

4. Credibility, Trust and Leadership

Most Americans appear to have a high regard for the character and integrity of the two main contenders for the U.S. presidency.

Obama, a graduate of the Harvard Law School, a former community organizer in Chicago, a state legislator in Illinois and a U.S. senator, seemed largely above reproach during both the primary and presidential races. His opponents attempted to link him to a trio of questionable figures -- Tony Rezko (a Chicago real estate developer convicted of fraud), William Ayers (an ex-student radical who bombed federal buildings), and Jeremiah Wright (a militant black preacher) -- but Obama remained untarnished.

McCain is a former navy aviator who suffered horribly (and bravely) as a prisoner of war in North Vietnam during the late 1960s and early 1970s. After moving to Arizona, he embarked on a successful political career, winning election to the House of Representatives in 1982, and moving to the U.S. Senate five years later. There was virtually no attempt to link McCain during his presidential bid to the darkest blot on his record, his assistance in the 1980s for James Keating, a campaign contributor later convicted of fraud in that decade's savings and loan debacle.

In the end, it may be said that both Obama and McCain emerged from the lengthy presidential campaign with their reputations unblemished, and perhaps even enhanced. The fatal association for McCain was that he and George W. Bush belonged to the same political party, and U.S. voters wanted change.

Do British Columbians admire either or both of Gordon Campbell and Carole James? The answer probably reflects the polarized nature of B.C. politics: those on the centre-right respect Campbell, and those on the centre-left admire James. Partisans in both parties probably have little regard for the leader of the other.

Moreover, objective observers might be more apt to focus on each leaders' shortcomings than on their positive attributes. For Campbell, these might include his seeming insensitivity to the impact of his government's policies on seniors, university students and low-income British Columbians, as well as his failure to keep numerous election promises (such as not selling BC Rail) and repeated misrepresentation of the province's finances.

For James, it might be her frequent indecision, characterized by such mis-steps as flip-flopping on a 2005 MLA pay raise, then flip-flop-"we'll donate our salary increase to charities" in 2007 on the same topic, and an incomprehensible policy on twinning of the Port Mann Bridge.

Oh, well. Both leaders have six months to convince B.C. voters that they are credible, trustworthy leaders. At present, this too is a tie.

Points out of 5:
Campbell and the BC Liberals, 3
James and the New Democrats, 3

5. The news media

Here perhaps is the biggest difference between the American presidential race and the looming B.C. provincial contest. In the United States, the mainstream news media was unquestionably in the tank for Obama, overtly supporting the Democratic challenger over the Republican whose party had held the White House for eight years.

Among the many studies conducted during the campaign, one by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism found that while media coverage of Obama was only slightly tilted in his favour, the treatment of McCain and Palin was markedly negative. To quote the Pew report, "unfavourable stories about McCain outweighed favourable ones by a factor of more than three to one."

In B.C., it's the other way around: the mainstream news media is manifestly supportive of the incumbent BC Liberals and overtly critical of the challenging New Democrats. That's not to say that all mainstream journalists are biased one way or another, but the editorial direction and overall sentiment at certain daily newspapers, television and radio stations is clear to any impartial observer.

Could the bias of B.C.'s mainstream news media affect the outcome of the next general election? Sure, but its impact probably is overrated. It will be up to the leaders and their parties to ensure that the contest is fought on grounds favourable to each.

Points out of 5:
Campbell and the BC Liberals, 3
James and the New Democrats, 2

Adding it up

A quick tally of the points shows Gordon Campbell's BC Liberals with 15, and Carole James's New Democratic Party also with 15. It's a tie.

Much may change over the next six months, however, and during the election campaign itself. Barack Obama's election as president of the United States has lessons for B.C.'s politicians; will they learn them?

Related Tyee stories:

[Tyee]

Veteran political analyst Will McMartin is a Tyee contributing editor.

39 Comments:

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  • dgiVista.org

    3 years ago

    Biased Media Cannot Stop Populist Change

    Good points on the nature of mainstream media [mainly CanWest/Global) being the communications department of the Campbell neoLiberal government despite the investigative and critical approach of many quality journalists in the province.

    I think you're right that it's overrated. As much as I bash the media for their unapologetic bias, the NDP came 8 seats away from beating the anti-social Campbell in 2005.

    As much as media is against progressive change, it can be overcome in 2009.

  • Frank

    3 years ago

    Next election

    Will, I would add that Campbell is much more strongly disliked than his party. Not that that matters since the majority of people in this province are on the far Right and would vote for anyone carrying their banner.

    And of course the media, run by and for the financial elite, will do everything they can to put him in a positive light short of running pictures of him with a halo or god-like sun-rays beaming down on him.

    Prediction : BC will be in a mess next May but people will never hear about it (they'll instead still be reading about the fast ferries regardless of how that project has been dwarfed by Liberal boondoggles) and Campbell will win re-election by a landslide.

  • Skywalker

    3 years ago

    Unless...

    The media will be a deciding factor unless James can instill some passion regarding her leadership, Frank has it about right. Obama she ain't and that is obvious.

  • Grumpy

    3 years ago

    Sad for BC that............

    James is no Obama and the NDP is too rigid to encompass change or even entertain it.

    Campbell makes Bush look like a 'piker' and is far more evil a person. Bush is/was an idiot; Campbell is a scheming narcissist, who has already sold his soul to the devil.

    The mainstream BC media, with few exceptions (Tyee?, the Straight) is about as honest and any communist of fascist controlled media. There is no honestly left in the CanWest/Global media empire.

    Bill 'Boring' and CORUS have prostituted themselves to corporate demands and their programs are just that 'filler.'

    As for this springs vote, it is the inept versus the deranged; pathos versus evil; elite on both sides destroying this once great province to suit their handlers demands. Everyone else can rot in hell because the NDP/Lib. elites don't give a damn, except for ultimate power and the favours it can bestow on their friends.

    There ain't any 'Obama' style hope for BC.

  • seth

    3 years ago

    its the greens stupid!!!

    The major factor Will missed here is the virtual wipeout of Nader and Barr - far left far right respectively.

    In the recent byelections, the BC conservatives and greens almost tied in the 5% area. Last time the BC Greens engineered the Gordo gang's victory. Perhaps this time, the Greens and BC Conservatives will hopefully cause at least equal damage to their respective causes.

    Secondly, McMartin obviously doesn't listen much to US mainstream media. 99% of the US market is covered almost 24/7 by fascist right wing talk radio. Only a small part of US geography is covered by Air America/ progressive radio.

    Fox News is 100% Neocon all the time.

    The rest of American media is balanced or somewhat favorable to Obama only if you think carrying McCains outright lies against Obama's truth (as verified by factcheck.org) without comment is balance.
    Where the mainstream media exposed a McCain lie even without comment, organizations like PEW listed that as being anti McCain.
    Balance is subjective and certainly Mainstream media with 15 years of big business ownership would view balance in the same fashion that Neocon US supreme court chief justice John Roberts would view balance.

  • alive

    3 years ago

    Corky Obama

    There was a strong demand for change in the US.

    Unfortunately here in BC, the media has downplayed the mishandling of affairs that Gordo has inflicted on us all, and there is not that groundswell here for reform.

    The voters in USA chanted: "Yes we can!", because they saw a leader who expressed their need and pointed to a solution!

    It is obvious that the masses require a charismatic person to lead them, simple good arguments are not enough!

    The only person I know of in the NDP who could fill such a job-description is Corky!

    However it would seem he is disenchanted with how the party is being run, and has found better use of his time, ----------- too bad!

  • egmont rapids

    3 years ago

    Cheer up Frank

    On a spot poll done several months ago on CKNW--The NDP won big,the last buried Ipsos Reid poll had the NDP up 11 points.

    The people of BC begrudingly gave Campbell another chance in 2005,things have gone down the toilet,the man continues to lie,and scam,they won`t give him that chance again.

    I have many relatives and freinds in Kamloops(a bell weather town) Campbell is very unpopular there!

    BCers are also very scared of Campbell in bad times,sometimes deficits must be run,there is nothing left to trim.

    Scandal after scandal,pay raises,private jets,gas tax,un-delivered promises(evergreen line,surrey hospital,vernon hospital,5000 care beds)

    BC Rail,John Les,Dobell,convention center,Vanoc,ICBC.

    Cuts to the autistis,cuts to WCB, on and on and on

    Run of river,fish farms,dead orca,ferry fares, Land give aways to WFP

    Here is another brand new story--Let me lay it out

    In 2004--DE Jong(forest minister)-Campbell gave away 70.000 hecters of land or 180.000 thounsand acres of land on Vancouver island--First nations took Campbell to court.
    This process had not even finished when Campbell and Rich Coleman(forestry minister) gave away to WFP another 40.000 hecters or 100.000 acres of land--Doyle(auditor general slammed Campbell on this move.
    Well a court ruling from the first nations challenge came out yesterday (from the 2004 land giveaway)

    I will let you read it yourself--

    http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.html?id=c54a28e2-9157-4072-9eeb-1fec369bb8a

    The Campbell law breaking goes on and on and on--Who`s town is next,who`s ox hasn`t been gored by Campbell?
    Campbell has spent close to 100 million on ads this year alone, brought in star candidates,had a full blown televized live electioneering platform on all the news outfits and he still couldn`t even come close in the bi-elections!

    Campbell is also--glug glug glug,back on the juice again--Happy days are a coming!

    Cheers

  • egmont rapids

    3 years ago

    Here is that link again

    Campbell the law breaker

    http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.html?id=c54a28e2-9157-4072-9eeb-1fec369cbb8a

  • BC Mary

    3 years ago

    Change? Oh yes! Change the media!

    alive wrote: " ... It is obvious that the masses require a charismatic person to lead them, simple good arguments are not enough!"

    and, much as I agree, and much as I bash the media myself, there's no avoiding the fact that the media controls what we see and read about. We depend upon the media, like it or not. We go to the media because there's no alternative.

    Change? Yes, change the media. Because, with all their faults, we're still relying upon them for whatever news we can scrape up. Yes, it's sickeningly biased: everything that goes wrong is the NDP's fault; anything that succeeds is Campbell's success. Even on The Tyee right now there are 3 photos of GC, 1 photo of Carole James. And there are still 200 fulltime government staffers making sure of that ... at our expense.

    So how would Corky Evans be a much-needed charismatic leader for change to a greener, gentler B.C.? Only if CanWest could be persuaded to fulfill its obligations to report all the news, all the time, without their extraordinary bias. In other words, only if B.C. is allowed to see and hear Corky as charismatic leader.

    I think public pressure could bring about such a change. Darn right we could. Yes, we can.

    .

  • egmont rapids

    3 years ago

    More despicable BC Liberal goverment actions

    It will never end with Campbell`s corrupt secret,hiding goverment

    here is the link

    http://www.canada.com/victoriatimescolonist/news/story.html?id=0647ea83-c323-4fb0-a67d-1075e09eb41e

    A scandal everyday with Campbell

  • crackpot

    3 years ago

    how the NDP can win

    One lesson for the NDP from Obama's victory is that it needs to articulate a clear, non-partisan vision of where it wants to take the province, what it wants BC to look like 20 or 50 years from now. If all it does is bash Campbell and argue "we're not the Liberals," the NDP will suffer the same fate the Republicans did last night.

    Another lesson is that a politician's personal story can encourage voters to believe that he/she really does embody change. We should hear more from Carole James about her Metis heritage, and the fact that she's married to a First Nations artist. Like the United States, this province has old wounds in bad need of healing.

  • Jeaness

    3 years ago

    I didn't know that!

    Why have we not heard Carole James' story? We all know too much about Gordon Campbell, but I have never before realized that James is a Metis, nor that she is married to a First Nations man. Perhaps this information is widely available, but if so, I've missed it.

    By all means, let's hear James' story - we need stories about people who prevail against prejudice and poverty to compete in our materialistic society. Like the Americans who responded to Obama, we need leaders who overcame great odds to inspire us to a belief that we too can make a difference.

  • Luke Skywalker

    3 years ago

    Alaska Governor Sarah Palin

    Whenever Palin came on the 6 pm news I grabbed for the mute button. Couldn't stand that lady.

    The more public exposure... the larger negatives Palin had in opinion polls.

    Replace "James" for "Palin" and repeat.

  • frank2

    3 years ago

    No Obama here. Obama

    No Obama here.
    Obama demonstrated an incredible ability to keep his cool, while listening to all sides and deliberating responses to issues. He is clearly very intelligent, has plumbed his person to the point that he is truly grounded (Read his books) and attracted some amazing talent.

    His opponent had body language -- and use of language -- which clearly demonstrated that he was past his "best by" date.

    Result? Obama won by a very slender margin of the popular vote (not much change from last time).

    What do we have in BC? A premier with a cold personality, lacklustre orator, clearly subject to unresolved personal issues (dictatorial style, drunk-driving without real remorse, etc), who has failed to attract (or keep) many talented people around him. His prime motivation seems to be to reduce government and subsidise business.

    His opponent? A mild-seeming person who has failed to articulate a vision of the future for the province, whose biggest plank is "axe the tax" -- which is probably the one progressive Government policy (needing some tweaking, certainly, but not "axeing.")

    Change here would be a miracle.

    We need a new vision. A good start would be pushing for more democracy (including STV). And on the nuts and bolts level, doing some "deals" with greens to avoid vote splitting in critical ridings.

  • egmont rapids

    3 years ago

    Luke

    No Ipsos reid polls luke?

    Where is the september Ipsos reid poll?

    No great financial news"

    Is that all you got luke?

    Have you noticed all the latest pictures of Campbell, the man is crumbling by the day--Glug glug glug, "hide your children,don`t answere the door"

    The man is running scared luke--The Whistler convention was a bust,the property tax freeze/de-ferment was a huge bust,all he did was insult everyone`s intelligence, was this another Campbell happy hour idea?

    You keep on riding the Liberal death train Luke.

    Question--Whats the diffrence between a black hole and Gordon Campbell.

    Answere-- NOTHING, light and hope disappear with either!

  • SharingIsGood

    3 years ago

    Actually, Frank

    Frank posits:
    "And of course the media, run by and for the financial elite, will do everything they can to put him in a positive light short of running pictures of him with a halo or god-like sun-rays beaming down on him."

    Actually Frank, this did happen, sort of. I distinctly remember seeing a depiction of Gordon Campbell decked out as a super-hero, (on page one, I believe) of the Times Colonist - and they weren't being sarcastic!

  • realisticman

    3 years ago

    Jeaness...

    quote

    "By all means, let's hear James' story - we need stories about people who prevail against prejudice and poverty to compete in our materialistic society. Like the Americans who responded to Obama, we need leaders who overcame great odds to inspire us to a belief that we too can make a difference."

    Are you not assuming a bit much here? Carole was born in England, who says she had to struggle against prejudice and poverty and overcome great odds? Do you have some information on this?

  • Skywalker

    3 years ago

    Opinion.

    One thing to remember is that if you are going to run a campaign on noble visions like "hope" and "change" you first need just the right setting and then just the right charismatic leader. If a normal person tried the Obama technique they could not pull it off as they would be accused of not providing specifics. Campbell may be another George W. but we are still not in the same mess provincialy. At least we don't have our own provinmcial Iraq.

    Wishing for an Obama is a waste of time. There is none on the horizon for the next election. Obama only appealed to the center without losing the left because he could marginalize the Republicans by doing so and there is no left option in the U.S. The Democrats are liberal not left.

    In was less about race than it was about charisma when everyone was hungry for it. James doesn't have the same spealing ability, presence, or "story". Lucky maybe for her neither does Campbell.

  • RickW

    3 years ago

    Skywalker

    Quote:
    One thing to remember is that if you are going to run a campaign on noble visions like "hope" and "change" you first need just the right setting and then just the right charismatic leader.

    You mean -- we first gotta have a stalemate of a war, costing us billions of dollars, and a stock market going all to hell, with people losing their houses and jobs by the millions, while CEOs collect millions in "performance" bonuses?

    Well, we're getting there.........

  • Skywalker

    3 years ago

    Rick W

    I think if you want it to unfold as it did in the U.S. that is what it will take. Here it will be just another one of those usual elections with the media playing a major role in the outcome. To make the media irrelevant you need the U.S. style bleeding of the treasury with all the hardship and all the lies that led to it. Then you need someone with charisma and vision and the ability to articulate same.

    I don't see it happening with the current players.

  • egmont rapids

    3 years ago

    Your all wrong Skywalker

    Tragedy,pain,suffering comes in all forms,talk to seniors getting hallway medicine,talk to parents of autistic adult children whom had all funding suspended!

    Talk to salmon fishers who have seen them disappear,talk to permanatly injured workers who have been bankrupted by WCB after Campbell corrupted them!

    Talk to parents of children who need insulin pumps,talk to people who have been tossed aside,talk to the long gone fathers of democracy who fought,struggled and gave their lives so that WE, THE PEOPLE COULD LIVE A FREE LIFE!

    Only to have Gordon Campbell sell our freedoms,one by one they are disappering,our courts are corrupted,govermental watchdogs have been tamed,even now our right to freedom of speech is at risk!

    So my freind Skywalker, it is not war,or strife,or melting markets that are required for change,the momentum of a voice,a single voice,then two,then many,then a whole town joins in,then more towns,then finally a movement is born, people armed with nothing more than the passion to protect even one individual!

    The passion of truth,the passion of justice,we need not fear the media,nor Campbell,WE NEED ONLY TELL THE STORY OF THE LONE TREE,REGARDLESS OF HOW THE FOREST MAY GET IN THE WAY!

    Sincerely BG--Sunshine coast

  • davidex

    3 years ago

    No Leaders to speak of but also a toothless media

    Frank2 is dead on in his statements that there are no leaders able to whip up a convincing fight. Both candidates down South spoke with eloquent and passionate rhetoric. The locals, both provincially and municipally offer nothing. Zip. They are airheaded bureaucrats that speak only of process instead of offering a vision of greatness for our province, cities and people.
    Having said that, I don't see why everyone is wailing about the traditional media as if it matters. If we learned anything from the US election, it should be of the importance of Web 2.0 and the Democrats' skillful use of the Internet (Facebook, Twitter, web, etc) to get their message out to the disaffected under-30's who understand that broadsheet daily newspapers and big dumb-ass local TV and radio stations are dead dinosaurs that convey nothing but blow-dried hair-dos (and we've got Pamela Martin and Bill Goode to put up with the best of 'em!). They are all as phony as their "feel good tonight, rich folk" messages. Why anyone would lose sleep over the opinions of CanWest media is beyond me except that it might divert the minds of the over-65's from the real issues.

  • zalm

    3 years ago

    2. Economic Crisis and (Im)Pending Fiscal Challenges

    Here's the only place where the article goes a bit south.

    "First, who or what is responsible for the current economic downturn? Second, who is best able to manage economic and fiscal challenges?

    Well, this was asked and answered 6 months ago by BC Statistics, as reported on by Vaughn Palmer July 3rd.

    "The extent to which private sector businesses are willing or able to invest in new plant and equipment is a key indicator of the future prospects for economic growth. Alberta businesses have been investing heavily in new plant and equipment and have done so since the early 1980s . . . . Past investment decisions in that province have without a doubt contributed significantly to the province's current strong economy."

    Not so here on the West Coast. "B.C. businesses have not invested as much (per capita) in new plant and equipment as those in most other parts of the country. In 2007, only the Atlantic provinces invested less in new machinery and equipment, per capita."

    Resource and goods-producing industries down. Exports in decline. Private sector investment stagnant. So what accounts for the good news on the economic front? Provincial growth is mainly a result of the boom in residential construction, the thriving service sector and government spending, according to BC Stats. "More troubling," the agency says, "is the fact that during this period of relatively strong growth, the necessary foundation for future economic growth in the province has not been laid." Hard to imagine a less flattering verdict on the B.C. Liberals' time in office, given the emphasis they put on creating the right conditions for growth and investment.

    Looking ahead, the agency says "B.C.'s economy faces some serious challenges. The province's relatively strong economic growth and labour market conditions mask some fundamental weaknesses in the economy. "If the province is to continue to enjoy strong growth in the future, the underlying causes of some of the weaknesses will need to be addressed. Otherwise, British Columbia could see itself falling even further behind the rest of Canada."

    Who's got the vision to work our way out of this mess? Not Gordo, not after 8 years of no results.

  • zalm

    3 years ago

    The real fiscal crisis

    Here's the scenario, Will.

    1. Equity market continues to crash until nearly all short-term debt comes due (March - July 2009), then the debt market crashes to follow due to low interest rates.

    2. Period of uncertainty, of indeterminate length while people absorb the news and commentators fool themselves about how wise they are from day to day predicting recovery and creating more fanciful scenarios of who was responsible. 1 day? 2 years? Who knows?

    3. Equity markets recover optimism, and, for the first time, debt markets do not offer a countersignal.

    4. 9-12 months later, business improves. Manufacturing goes back to work, and consumption rises.

    5. 9-12 months after that, debt markets return to historic levels.

    6. 12-48 months after that, resource-based economies recover to previous levels of stable growth.

    That's BC, that last there, dontcha know....

    That's been the formula in every great recession BC has been in, most notably 1982-6. By my count, we're in for not less than 3 years of no or negative growth in BC, and possibly up to 8 years. Could make the slow times from 1996-2000 look like a capitalist's tea party....

    So, why pick an unimaginative toady like Gordo to lead you through this mess? Why not "pin the blame" on Carol?

  • RickW

    3 years ago

    egmont rapids

    Both you and Skywalker are correct. But where the US media does a miserable job of reporting is in the areas of suffering you mention that are a fallout of the financial disaster that has befallen hundreds of thousands of Americans. That has been softpedalled, because that represents the solid base from which real revolution can arise.

  • Skywalker

    3 years ago

    Egmont.

    You may be right but who on the current scene will provide "the momentum of a voice,a single voice". There's the rub. Sure we have a George W. incumbent and some problems but meltdowns and wars and body bags point to federal governments. Provincial governments escape soem of the accountability. Maybe some voice out there can ignite the passions but I can't find one.

  • Budd Campbell

    3 years ago

    crackpot: You're no crackpot!

    crackpot
    One lesson for the NDP from Obama's victory is that it needs to articulate a clear, non-partisan vision of where it wants to take the province, what it wants BC to look like 20 or 50 years from now. ...

    Another lesson is that a politician's personal story can encourage voters to believe that he/she really does embody change. We should hear more from Carole James about her Metis heritage, and the fact that she's married to a First Nations artist. ...

    I agree completely.

    Unfortunately, the NDP brains trust who will run the campaign listen more to Liberal bloggers like Luke Skywalker. In fact, just after the disappointing federal results one of the key people from the national campaign signed onto Buzz Hargrove's rabble.ca/babble cesspool-site to say he had been getting lots of good ideas from that site during the campaign. Guys like Skywalker must have just about spat their coffee/beer onto their computer screens and keyboards when they read that one!

  • SharingIsGood

    3 years ago

    RE: real fiscal crisis

    You couldn't have put it more succinctly, Zalm. As if to place an exclamation point on your post, the MSM is reporting that, due to reductions in the construction industry, BC lost 9500 jobs in October. As our premier thought it unnecessary to spend government money on the Olympics rather than build green industry infrastructure, we will now face more either increased deficit/deferred spending or decreases in services.

    I think it is quite sad that so many of the predictions put forth over the last few years regarding what was going to happen to the BC and world economies by G West, Frank, Zalm, Ed Deak, The Coyote, myself and many others are now coming true. I would have like to have been found to be wrong. BC's economy is moving at speed with a 10 knot tide and a gale helping to push us toward the rocks.

    No real estate sales,
    no new construction,
    Lumber and pulp mills closing down,
    Millenium Construcition needing a bailout,
    Logging companies going belly up
    No salmon in the rivers
    No Federal transfer payments
    3Ps coming due.
    half a billion dollars in cost over-runs on the convention centre.

    Yep, the Liberal apologists have their work cut out for them; even if they work with an unlimited budget, Ministry of Propaganda bootlicks are going to have a really hard time of convincing everyone it is the NDP's fault. Campbell is the worst manager I could ever imagine. He's taken his moldy condo concept and applied it to the province. Cheers to the juicer!.

  • egmont rapids

    3 years ago

    Well put SIG

    Many crimes are being committed by the BC Liberals.

    Would you like to read some more

    You better be seated when you read this!

    http://thebernermonologues.blogspot.com/2008/11/ladner-is-finished.html

  • egmont rapids

    3 years ago

    The plot thickens

    Read bettys millenium construction story from febuary 2008---This woman scooped everyone about millenium construction and the money laundering /public purse robbery!

    A MUST READ,my hats off to BETTY

    http://bettysearlyedition.blogspot.com/2008_02_01_archive.html

  • zalm

    3 years ago

    Thanks SIG

    It's taken me weeks to figure that out. all the resident genii could have helped me to understand it a bit faster....

  • zalm

    3 years ago

    On that note

    EDITED FOR PERSONAL INSULTS -- TYEE MODERATOR

  • SharingIsGood

    3 years ago

    Your welcome Zalm

    You did some fine analysis. Even before your analysis, I figured it would be 5-8 years before housing prices rise enough for speculative building. The only speculative building that will be viable will be converting the over-abundance of existing large houses into duplexes and flats. There will not be much money in that, but it will be able to keep food on the table for those with some down-sized builders with ingenuity. Of course, for this to happen, zoning changes are necessary.

    Correction:
    "our premier thought it "necessary" to spend government money on the Olympics rather than build green industry" infrastructure

  • Stump

    3 years ago

    LOL-worthy

    'Our' premier (in quotes because I'm not one of the people among the few that bought and paid for him) was just on CBC Radio One. He said, "Ours is not a gov't that believes in subsidizing business." Damn near ruined my keyboard by with a morning coffee spit-take. What a f*cking liar. Or, dense. Either way, he shouldn't be in charge clearly.

  • G West

    3 years ago

    I heard that too Stump

    And reacted in pretty much the same way - in fact I posted a message with the same basic comment somewhere else earlier today.

    The man has become a joke

  • Budd Campbell

    3 years ago

    Stump, G West: Don't laugh!

    Premier Gordon M. Campbell's line, consistent since his opposition days, that he doesn't like "subsidies" to business has served him well in the propaganda realm. I have had people who are well-educated and well-informed repeating this line to me with a straight face. When I wince, they laugh!

    Objecting that tilted tax cuts amount to the same thing gets no traction with these people. It's a sad bit of economic illiteracy that Campbell and others have successfully exploited.

  • G West

    3 years ago

    I get the feeling

    That some of the purposeful blindness we're talking about may finally be coming to an end...

    Sadly, the foxes have already made off with most of the chickens and all the chicken feed.

  • ROBBINS Sce Research

    3 years ago

    Sweet Smell of Success

    Not one for false humility--I was pleased to examine each of the polls ROBBINS (RSR) Research delivered in the United States Presidential election.

    Of the dozen and more public opinion polls we delivered under www.robbinssceresearch.com--one can easily see that at no time were we ever wrong--the proof is in the pudding.

    There was a massive distribution of these polls throughout the U.S.--just as there were when Bush won in 04.

    I walk into an all candidates meeting in Coquitlam--and Maxine Wilson (the mayor) says "Oh Glen, my polling says I am ahead of Richard Stewart 3/2." I replied--"Maxine, my company just picked an African American for President of the United States of America in January 08--I could give a shit what any pollster up here says."

    I am Canadian--my family goes back generations-but we promote averageness--from top to bottom. Americans will always come out on top because they don't--they are always looking for a better mousetrap--we wait and watch them--merit means nothing and it shows. That's how it is.

    My business agent in the U.S. told me-"When (and if) Obama shows up in Canada he will likely expect Harper to carry his bags." (After the exhibition of stupidity from the Harper government during the election).

    That's how power really is---British Columbians and Canadians need to get real.

  • ROBBINS Sce Research

    3 years ago

    I disagree with the score

    I disagree with the score for trust on the basis that swing voters have sufficient evidence to not trust or consider not trusting Campbell. There is no reason NOT to trust Carole James--and a lack of trust of the BC NDP is already accounted for under economy.

    BC Liberal advertorials in perpetuity (on taxpayer dime)--are swinging on environment--not economy. The economy will go down--Harper has already gone from no deficit to well maybe deficit (bankers announced deficits are good--at end of election).

    Campbell et al have more potential alligators in the election broth--what has the BC NDP done to hurt anybody.

    BC Liberal supporters like Carole Taylor and are kinda hoping Campbell loses in Point Grey.

    I sat over coffee with 5 clearly BC Liberal supporters--(all male--in $$) offered to bet them all Campbell would lose. No one took the bet.

    Bush didn't want McCain to inherit his only potential for legacy (success in Iraq) and claim it for himself--based sabotaged McCain--that is why McCain went with Palin stunt--no choice.

    Do you think Campbell really wants to win that badly? Economy here will follow U.S.--major developers can't afford to keep going and are going green to put off building---the run's over.

    He will hand off dismal economy to BC NDP and let them 'run deficit' and ignore conversation about rising debt---he's a builder you know.

    Campbell has been around since 1996--people get sick of good sitcoms in less than 10 years--and although our system of government in this province is comedic/tragic--he's run his course.

    95% support? what are the BC Liberals going to do stuck with Campbell--give him 65%. That would leave them with 10 seats after May 09

    BC Liberals want to hold BC NDP close--try every slippery trick in the book--closeness with media may evaporate--mainstream cannot afford to lose any more credibility--its already in the shitter with talk radio becoming the new witness protection programme (ROBBINS DEEPthroat).

    Greens are on a slow decline---bad economic environment--Vancouver by-election bears this out. Can't leverage BC NDP to the same extent. BC Conservatives result in Vancouver equals Greens--they will achieve at least those totals in provincial election--5%-- centre right vote is decreasing--and many BC Liberals will sit out 09.

    2013 will be BC Liberals revamped--BC Conservatives rebuilt--renewed coalition vs. BC NDP.

    Let the BC NDP take 4 years of economic turnaround.

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