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BC's Spring Vote, Through Lens of Obama's Victory

Lessons from the US presidential contest.

Will McMartin 5 Nov 2008TheTyee.ca

Veteran political analyst Will McMartin is a Tyee contributing editor.

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Voters in the United States yesterday elected a first-term U.S. senator from Illinois, a 47-year-old black man, Barack Obama, as their 44th president. Does this historic result and its preceding election campaign offer any insights into the next six months in British Columbia as B.C. voters prepare to go to the polls on May 12, 2009?

The following is a quick calculation of how Barack Obama's election victory presages either the re-election of Gordon Campbell and his BC Liberal government, or victory for Carol James and her New Democratic Party, the province's official Opposition.

There are five election factors on which Campbell's Liberals and James's New Democrats are ranked on a scale of one-to-five. The total points are calculated at the end.

1. 'Change'

With hindsight, it seems obvious that American voters in 2008 thirsted for political "change." Yet for some reason, that notion eluded Hillary Clinton, the New York senator and former first lady, and the high-priced professionals working on her candidacy in the Democratic party primaries.

Month after month, Clinton trumpeted her personal and political "experience" so as to draw a sharp contrast with Obama, the relatively unknown rookie in the U.S. Senate. In most state primaries and caucuses, from January in Iowa through August and the national convention in Denver, Democratic party voters opted for the latter.

That fact was not lost on the Republican nominee and Arizona Senator, John McCain -- it was one of the key reasons he selected another virtual unknown and a woman, the Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, as his running mate. And, for a week or two after the GOP convention, his choice resonated with many American voters. But Obama's persistent linkage of McCain with two-term president George W. Bush (in concert with Palin's fading star) soon restored the Democrat's lead over his Republican rival.

Initially, the U.S. public's desire for change stemmed from a general weariness with Bush's eight-year presidency, emphasized by ongoing antipathy to the lengthy war in Iraq. But in recent months, Americans also have become increasingly anxious over economic recession, rising unemployment, sky-high gasoline prices, plummeting home values and an explosion in foreclosures.

This sentiment was heightened by the failure or near-collapse of several of the country's largest financial institutions, followed by the federal government's near-frantic decision to expend hundreds of billions of dollars to "bail-out" Wall Street.

For skittish American voters, the political status quo seemed neither realistic nor desirable, especially when the advocate for an alternative view was an articulate, intelligent, youthful and inspirational figure whose very candidacy signified change.

How strong is the desire for "change" in British Columbia? At present, not very. To be sure, those to the left-of-centre fervently hope for the defeat of Gordon Campbell and his BC Liberals, but it is far from evident that this sentiment is widely shared. At present, the desire for change seems evenly balanced with a desire for stability and the status quo.

Should that balance shift toward a general sentiment for change over the next six months, however -- either because of a deteriorating economy and worsening provincial finances, or another factor such as political scandal -- then James and the NDP would enjoy a considerable advantage because their very election to government, as with Obama, would signify change.

Campbell and his BC Liberals, meanwhile, would be forced to promise or demonstrate that change was possible through their re-election. They would need to change at least some of their policies (perhaps altering or scrapping the carbon tax, or accepting a fiscal deficit) or personnel (a cabinet shuffle and/or new "star" candidates).

In the event that change becomes the dominant theme in B.C.'s next general election, as it was in the U.S. presidential contest, the New Democrats will be favoured.

Points out of 5:
Carole James and the New Democrats, 4
Gordon Campbell and the BC Liberals, 2

2. Economic crisis and impending fiscal challenges

There are at least two major issues here. First, who or what is responsible for the current economic downturn? Second, who is best able to manage economic and fiscal challenges?

In the United States, the easy and widely accepted answer to the first question was George W. Bush and his policies, especially the costly war in Iraq, deregulation of the financial services sector and the rise in the price of oil. For most voters, this observation underscored the need for change.

Had the crisis facing America instead come from an expanded war or imminent threat of terrorism, McCain, an older and more-experienced politician than Obama, and a former war-hero, might have argued with greater cogency that he was better suited than his opponent for challenging times.

But when the economy headed south, McCain faltered, at first claiming that the country's economic fundamentals were sound, and later briefly suspending his campaign to emphasize the severity of the crisis. He appeared erratic and ill-prepared.

In time, and especially in contrast to his opponent, the younger, less-experienced Obama seemed the calmer, steadier hand who could steer the ship of state through turbulent economic waters.

Unlike the United States, which now is in a recession, British Columbia only faces the possibility of a sharp downturn. And where McCain was tarnished by Bush's failed economic and fiscal policies over the past eight years, most British Columbians believe that the provincial economy has performed extremely well since Campbell and his BC Liberals were elected to government in 2001.

But what if B.C. actually does experience an economic slowdown; which leader and party would most voters prefer to handle that crisis should it appear? Campbell likely would emphasize his experience, and might even attempt to reprise Bill Bennett's "tough-guy" approach that took the Socreds to a surprise re-election victory in 1983. James probably would promote a compassionate approach to economic uncertainty and government finances. Both would be hamstrung by their commitment to a balanced budget.

In this category, Campbell's Liberals enjoy a slight advantage, although all bets are off in the event that B.C.'s economy and provincial finances suddenly and dramatically go to hell in a handcart.

Points out of 5:
Campbell and the BC Liberals, 4
James and the New Democrats, 3

3. Policies

Was there an appreciable difference between Obama's policies and those of McCain? Did anybody even take note of their policy platforms?

More to the point, when economic recession threatens jobs, home ownership and government finances, do policies other than fiscal or economic matter to most voters?

To be sure, there are salient issues that divide Americans -- abortion and the war in Iraq, to mention just two -- and no doubt some voters were influenced by local, religious or ideological factors. None, however, appeared to play a decisive role in the nation-wide presidential election campaign.

Will a dominant issue emerge in British Columbia before next May? Both parties claim to believe in balanced budgets, affordable taxes, a clean environment, safe streets, a well-funded public education system, a quality public health care system and much, much more. What are the specific areas where they disagree?

Many voters, those who strongly identify with either the left or the right, already know which party they will vote for or against next May; policies are merely something to argue about. The same is true for single-issue voters who care not a whit for matters outside of their specific area of concern.

But what about those British Columbians who are truly undecided? Well, that's why both major parties are in the field, polling to plumb voters' sentiment and test-drive policies and slogans. We'll find out what they've ascertained when the election nears.

In the end, if the economy goes into a tailspin and the government's finances suffer accordingly, none of it will matter. For now, it's a wash.

Points out of 5:
James and the New Democrats, 3
Campbell and the BC Liberals, 3

4. Credibility, Trust and Leadership

Most Americans appear to have a high regard for the character and integrity of the two main contenders for the U.S. presidency.

Obama, a graduate of the Harvard Law School, a former community organizer in Chicago, a state legislator in Illinois and a U.S. senator, seemed largely above reproach during both the primary and presidential races. His opponents attempted to link him to a trio of questionable figures -- Tony Rezko (a Chicago real estate developer convicted of fraud), William Ayers (an ex-student radical who bombed federal buildings), and Jeremiah Wright (a militant black preacher) -- but Obama remained untarnished.

McCain is a former navy aviator who suffered horribly (and bravely) as a prisoner of war in North Vietnam during the late 1960s and early 1970s. After moving to Arizona, he embarked on a successful political career, winning election to the House of Representatives in 1982, and moving to the U.S. Senate five years later. There was virtually no attempt to link McCain during his presidential bid to the darkest blot on his record, his assistance in the 1980s for James Keating, a campaign contributor later convicted of fraud in that decade's savings and loan debacle.

In the end, it may be said that both Obama and McCain emerged from the lengthy presidential campaign with their reputations unblemished, and perhaps even enhanced. The fatal association for McCain was that he and George W. Bush belonged to the same political party, and U.S. voters wanted change.

Do British Columbians admire either or both of Gordon Campbell and Carole James? The answer probably reflects the polarized nature of B.C. politics: those on the centre-right respect Campbell, and those on the centre-left admire James. Partisans in both parties probably have little regard for the leader of the other.

Moreover, objective observers might be more apt to focus on each leaders' shortcomings than on their positive attributes. For Campbell, these might include his seeming insensitivity to the impact of his government's policies on seniors, university students and low-income British Columbians, as well as his failure to keep numerous election promises (such as not selling BC Rail) and repeated misrepresentation of the province's finances.

For James, it might be her frequent indecision, characterized by such mis-steps as flip-flopping on a 2005 MLA pay raise, then flip-flop-"we'll donate our salary increase to charities" in 2007 on the same topic, and an incomprehensible policy on twinning of the Port Mann Bridge.

Oh, well. Both leaders have six months to convince B.C. voters that they are credible, trustworthy leaders. At present, this too is a tie.

Points out of 5:
Campbell and the BC Liberals, 3
James and the New Democrats, 3

5. The news media

Here perhaps is the biggest difference between the American presidential race and the looming B.C. provincial contest. In the United States, the mainstream news media was unquestionably in the tank for Obama, overtly supporting the Democratic challenger over the Republican whose party had held the White House for eight years.

Among the many studies conducted during the campaign, one by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism found that while media coverage of Obama was only slightly tilted in his favour, the treatment of McCain and Palin was markedly negative. To quote the Pew report, "unfavourable stories about McCain outweighed favourable ones by a factor of more than three to one."

In B.C., it's the other way around: the mainstream news media is manifestly supportive of the incumbent BC Liberals and overtly critical of the challenging New Democrats. That's not to say that all mainstream journalists are biased one way or another, but the editorial direction and overall sentiment at certain daily newspapers, television and radio stations is clear to any impartial observer.

Could the bias of B.C.'s mainstream news media affect the outcome of the next general election? Sure, but its impact probably is overrated. It will be up to the leaders and their parties to ensure that the contest is fought on grounds favourable to each.

Points out of 5:
Campbell and the BC Liberals, 3
James and the New Democrats, 2

Adding it up

A quick tally of the points shows Gordon Campbell's BC Liberals with 15, and Carole James's New Democratic Party also with 15. It's a tie.

Much may change over the next six months, however, and during the election campaign itself. Barack Obama's election as president of the United States has lessons for B.C.'s politicians; will they learn them?

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