Might Not Be Workable...

Alot of the federal Liberals elected in the 905 belt of the GTA could be categorized as "centre-right" whereby the provincial MPP's are also PC's.

Similar to the federal Liberals currently holding Richmond, North Vancouver, and West Vancouver, which are centre-right ridings provincially.

Not all federal Liberal "elected" ridings are akin to Vancouver Kingsway, which is centre-left provincially.

Moreover, unlike the BC, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan provincial NDP, which could be categorized as orange Liberal parties, the federal NDP is further to the left.

That's why the provincial NDP can elect members in Saskatchewan and be shut out federally over the past couple of elections, irrespective of the "rurban" configuration of federal Saskatchewan urban ridings, for example.

I disagree

I don't think your understanding of Saskatchewan politics is at all current or complete.

If, by hook or by crook, the Conservatives end up with another minority and the NDP wins more seats than the Liberals then I think there is every possibility that some Liberals - especially ones from Ontario, might be willing to discuss a power-sharing arrangement if the GG could be persuaded to give them a chance to govern.

But first, even in that scenario, protocol and tradition would like mean pee wee has a chance to form a government first.

If that government were to fail within 6 months then I think a deal might coalesce...but, and this is a big but, I think a more likely outcome is a few more months of the Liberals sitting on their hands while pee wee governs and the Liberals pick a new leader to replace Dion.

If that happened, it would likely put the end to any possible cooperation with the NDP.

Liberals never consider anything but power and self-interest.

Too bad really.

a better plan

The parties can form a coalition on the day after the election but because of vote splitting it is unlikely to surpass Harper's total. If they tried to do it before the election it would likely cause too much voter confusion to be effective. In any case Layton, May, and Dion have ego's too big to even consider such a thing.

Best bet is for voters to consult voteforenvironment.ca's web site before voting to get advice on which candidate in their own riding Green, Liberal or NDP is most likely to be beat whatever muzzled up twit Harper has put up for them.

Even better each progressive party should be concentrating on shouting on the rooftops over the buzzing din of the mindless media, how 93% conservative support for anti abortion bill C-484 spells out what Harper and his gang really have in mind for us.

This 93% support is absolute proof that a conservative majority will ban abortion, and would likely proclaim mandatory prison for marijauna smokers, capital punishment and legalize gay bashing, This is the one thing that would torpedo Harper's neocon campaign perhaps even wipe him out.

Even assuming that the proven liar (read income trusts, newfie resource sharing) Harper keeps his promise to move to the centre and will not discuss his social conservative agenda, his 93% social conservative caucus will leave him no option.

Au Contraire...

If Saskatchewan/Manitoba voters federal intentions were also provincial, the provincial NDP in MB/SK would then be relegated to third party status:

C - 41%
L - 29%
N - 23%

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC-Nanos-Regional%20October-2E.pdf

Nanos today:

C - 34% (-2% from 2006)
L - 30% (same as in 2006)
N - 19% (+1.5% mainly due to Quebec where they win only hold/win Outremont)

Todays' Democratic Space federal seat projection:

C - 141 seats
L - 82 seats
BQ - 49 seats
N - 34 seats
I - 2 seats (proto Cons)

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/

And the NDP has again stated that they will again vote against confidence motions in a Con minority. Methinks the Liberals should support same and the electorate would likley take it out on the NDP at the ballot box in the next go round.

The electorate does not want an election every six months... they are gonna get pissed off!

Electoral Reform

I would love to see this come to pass, and electoral reform should be the issue that the parties come together on. I would advocate that they work as a coalition to pass proportional representation, and then call an election under the new electoral system as soon as practicable and get this country back on track with a truly representative parliament.

Tbarnston

You're absolutely correct - in my little prescription for a coalition I should have mentioned electoral reform...

On the other hand, it seems unlikely that real electoral reform is going to come from a major party at this time.

In fact, I think the only way it will come to pass is through a groundswell of public advocacy, organization and action.

The people are ahead of the politicians - or they should be - and the press (especially folks like Jeff Simpson) are a definite roadblock to change.

Simpson's hypocritical attitude toward the Ontario referendum was as good an example as I can think of.

Did you read it?

It's Time for a Coalition of the Opposition

John Ryan has mirrored the direction of my thoughts exactly. It's time for a coalition of the current opposition parties, who between them will soon represent around two-thirds of the Canadian electorate.

I've written about this on my bog greenpolitics.ca. You can link directly to it at greenpolitics.ca/2008/10/05/time-for-a-coalition-of-the-opposition/

I'd like to see this happen before the election, but I realise that's unlikely. After the event, i believe that there are precedents that the Governor-General can ask the opposition parties to form a government, rather than allowing the incumbent government try to govern with a minority.

Now, it's up to us to demand that Dion and Layton lay down their egos to protect the kind of Canada that many of us want to preserve, and not move on to the ultra-conservative vision of a USA North that Harper and his minions cherish. Internet pressure has already proved to be a factor in this election -- now it's time to demand a sea change in Canadian politics.

More than one way to skin a cat

The options are many and it is ultimately up to the leaders of the majority of our Country's citizens to do the right thing.

Peoples patience for petty partisan politics are up.

The collapse of the financial system demands we react.

The time for change is now.

We owe it to ourselves to demand action and to defeat the neo cons and their agenda.

Darn those URLs

For some reason the URLs in my previous comment didn't work. I'll try writing them this way:

http://greenpolitics.ca/2008/10/05/time-for-a-coalition-of-the-opposition/

Stuart Hertzog
http://greenpolitics.ca/

Better Hurry

'Cause it ain't gonna happen if the Libs do any better. Better call your buddies in Tronna and have them vote NDP 'cause if the Libs do do well they'll brush everyone off quick. They'll only go down as the USSR did, when they're flat broke. Another election like this one and the banks might pull the plug on them.

As I wrote on another thread:
Fact is Dion is now fave for PM in the far-East, Québec and Ontario, and he's passed Jack. If the Libs pull this off he might well have virtually no-one from the Manitoba border west for Cabinet. He'll either send parachutes (the same way he was brought into Cabinet) or Canada will have a seriously divided country - again.

Will that be tax or no tax?

And I think it goes deeper than ego as get the feeling the only thing the Liberals are really opposed about the Conservatives agenda is that its not the Liberals who are running the country. Layton's NDP government, a meat and potatoes government is a healthier opposition to Harper's right wing government and an up and coming troubled economy where families concern themselves with the food they put on the tables. Harper's response will that be tax or no tax reminds me of that game show. It goes deeper than that as not everything equates in dollars and cents such as Canadian children. Maybe it should be will that be children or no children? Daycare needs a different approach as the cost can often make it futile for many to go to work. Daycare co operatives along with other possible solutions should be looked into rather than leaving it will that be tax or no tax? Up until now the only thing we can seen to successful get the parties to agree to is that they all disagree but then thats why they are on the payroll.

Agree! Except the Libs would have to get rid of Iggy

In practice, the Liberals have been a little too close to the Conservatives the past fifteen years. They've shifted so far right of the centre they're unrecognizable as a Liberal party now. In their last two terms they reduced transfer payments for health care and are the primary reason health care is in the dire straits it's in now. The Conservatives have merely carried on what the Liberals started. They also ran a highly centralized secretive government under Martin and Chretien. Further, the Liberals engaged in deep integration talks with the US when they were in power, and allowed that neoconservative-loving asshole Ignatieff into the fold. He nearly became the leader, for God's sake.

Either they get back to their true liberal roots or we flip this party the bird.

I like Dion. I think he has integrity and reflects more of the old style Liberals. Unfortunately he's a poor choice as leader because he lacks charisma and appears awkward and geekish in front of the cameras. Rae would have been a better choice.

Otherwise I really like the idea of a coalition of like minded liberal parties so that we can get rid of the neoconservative creeps.

Something all the parties can agree to

Saying No to America can be a real @!@@@. Just try it and see how far it gets you especially when we have the natural resources they are in need of. I like Dion but he comes with baggage, Liberal baggage not to mention the ill effects of changing governments at this time on the Canadian economy which is in a recession.

Taking turns?

Would they take turns being Prime Minister based on the proportion of elected representatives for their respective parties?

Left out?

Maybe the NDP should ally with the Cons, we have as much in common with them as we do the Libs and I bet they're feeling kinda left out what with all this ganging up going on.

Also, Harper is less personally insulting towards the NDP.

Luke

You don't understand Saskatchewan politics if you think the provincial NDP is less left-wing than the federal NDP and that is why they are shut out federally.

After all, the federal NDP used to do fine there with leaders that were ideologically to the left of Layton.

Its a simplistic argument that you're trying to force on that situation in order to make your usual attack on the NDP.

If it was simply a case of people being like robots and deciding they are at point B on some political scale and your analysis was correct then all those NDP voters would simply shift Liberal federally. Which is where your analysis of polls leads. But the fact is the Libs aren't going to win a seat there either.

Sometimes knowing the ground gives you better insight than looking at polls in a place you've never been.

Frank...

But ... Ralph Goodale in Wascana (Saskatchewan) is a lock. Won by just under 8,000 votes in 2006.

"The Wascana riding includes the provincial legislature, the University of Regina and the Conexus Arts Centre. Government and the service sector are the main employers."

Sask federal voting history

out of 13 then 14 seats (1979) up for grabs in Sask

1958 0 CCF
1962 0 NDP (Tommy Douglas)
1963 0 NDP (Tommy Douglas)
1965 0 NDP (Tommy Douglas)
1968 6 NDP (Tommy Douglas)
1972 5 NDP (David Lewis)
1974 2 NDP (David Lewis)
1979 4 NDP (Ed Broadbent)
1980 7 NDP (Ed Broadbent)
1984 5 NDP (Ed Broadbent)
1988 10 NDP (Ed Broadbent)
1993 5 NDP (Audrey McLaughlin)
1997 2 NDP (Alexa McDonough)
2004 0 NDP (Jack Layton)
2006 0 NDP (Jack Layton)
2008 0 NDP (Jack Layton)

Luke

missed one : 2000 2 NDP (Alexa)

1988 was the only time the NDP got the most seats in Sask

Luke

I forgot about Ralph.

As you can see for yourself, in spite of Tommy Douglas being elected as premier of the province over and over the people of Sask didn't vote for him federally.

You can't say Douglas was too left-wing federally but a quasi-Liberal provincially.

As for Layton, NDP voters I know there just don't like him. He's from Toronto, he's too "urban" etc.

TAX REALISM: Good idea, ... but whose 'realism' will prevail?

Prof Ryan raises an interesting idea, one that hasn't been tried since the mid 1980s in Ontario, and the pact between Bob Rae and David Peterson. However, I think things may be a bit more difficult now, since the federal Liberals are well to the right on some issues compared to the mid-1980s Ontario provincial counterparts. Prof Ryan has a paragraph or two on the subject of taxation, but it pulls up short of recognizing the real dispute in this area:

Tax realism. There has to be a halt to the obsession of lowering taxes, which reduces the quality of our social services.

This part of the joint platform will create many more problems than Prof Ryan is acknowledging. Layton has said he will cancel the cuts in federal corporate income tax that the Conservatives have budgetted for, in which the tax rate would fall from 22% to 15%.

His party platform is projecting that over four years, with the expected (or what was expected until very lately) economic growth and corporate profitability, this would keep an additional $50 billion in the federal treasury. That additional $50 billion would then form the basis for enhanced spending on infrastructure, day care and child expenditure tax credits of up to $400 per month.

This policy stance has been vehemently rejected by Stephane Dion and John McCallum, and now by former PM Paul Martin as well. Dion has taken to using the term "old-fashioned socialist" to describe Layton's corporate tax proposals. Martin, attending a fundraiser for Richmond resident Wendy Yuan, who is the Federal Liberal Party's follow-on candidate for David Emerson in Vancouver Kingsway, had this to say:

"Do you want to tie Canada’s hands behind its back?” Martin asked. “Then increase the corporate income taxes. That’s what Jack Layton would want to do and let me tell you—that is not the kind of leadership that we need at the centre of this economic crisis in Canada.”

http://www.straight.com/article-164378/former-pm-paul-martin-slams-stephen-harper-over-economic-record?#

So, any potential coalition negotiations between the Liberals and the NDP are going to involve some very, very tough going in the area of federal corporate tax rates.

Frank...

Same here in BC - 19 NDP seats and the highest popular vote ever - 37%.

But there were reasons for that:

1. Federal Liberals were dead in western Canada.

2. The Brian Mulroney PC's were looked upon as the eastern establishment and not well liked here in BC.

3. Broadbent had the highest positive ratings among the national leaders and was also a populist. Even I liked him over Turner/Mulroney.

And that fostered the federal NDP's short golden era:

And just a month later NDP national support peaked at 41%!

Alot of vote parking going on and the party preferences for the NDP back then were obviously very soft.

Goodale

As a former resident of Regina, it's always been a truism that voters keep sending Ralph Goodale back to Ottawa to keep him off the streets of the Queen city...

The current provincial government...what do they call those hold-overs from the Devine days Frank?

The current povincial government rode to power on a platform of hate and right-wing racism - playing hard to the prejudices of a shrinking rural population.

The median age of farm operators increased from 48 years in 1996 to 49 in 2001. In addition, of all the farm operators counted in the 2001 census, 18.2% were 65 or over. Another 12,205, or 18.4%, will be 65 by 2011. By contrast, 9.9% of the entire labour force will turn 65 by the 2011 Census.

It is an aging and dying population - husbanding their bitterness and hate and voting, as the record shows, for the party that panders to their resentments and lack of understanding.

Luke

"But there were reasons for that:"

But I'm not arguing why the NDP did well in 1988. I'm just saying that the federal NDP doing badly in Sask where the provincial NDP usually forms gov't, is not because the federal NDP is more left-wing. That's all. And I beseech you to drop that hobby horse once and for all so we can stop arguing it every few weeks.

I love Saskatchewan, I like the people and the terrain and I still miss it and all my friends there very much. I'd go back there tomorrow if I could. But as GWest points out, there's a strong current of animosity there towards the growing native population in particular and even non-prairie folk in general. Something the Saskatchewan Party has tapped into. Its a bit disconcerting, even ugly, and moreso that they used that name for their party. Its like black arm-bands are next.

Although there's lots of great people there I even have a friend who has gone from the NDP to so far to the right I'm sure he would shoot natives on sight if he could get away with it. Hates Layton, thinks he's trying to force gays and mixed marriages with non-whites on us all. Loves the ex-PC on the radio there that fuels that attitude.

All I'm saying Luke is that there's lots of stuff going on there that has nothing to do with Layton being slightly to the left of Doer. The book "What's the matter with Kansas" could apply to parts of Saskatchewan.

coalition of desperation

I'd rather see Harpers Conservatives win every seat in Canada than have Elizabeth May attain even the smallest amount of political power.

And Dion, Layton and May together could only be called an Axis of Fools.

A coalition of these 3 parties could never get anything accomplished for Canadians because Ms Mays obsession with her obsessions would just grind everything to a halt.

It's nowhere near time for such desperation, Harper IS competent, those 3 stooges aren't. And 3 losers don't make a winner.

Frank

Maybe the NDP should ally with the Cons, we have as much in common

I completely agree with this statement of yours.

We should encourage Harper and Layton to finally and officially declare their allegiance.

Then we can push them both over the electoral abyss and get on with salvaging whats left of our nation.

BC or national result?

politico (ie liberal) and penderharbour (ie conservative), ... I assume you are both making predictions at the Canada level, not for BC. Right?

I'll give you a national projection of the popular vote:

Conservatives 35%
Liberals 24%
New Democrats 24%
Greens 8%
Bloc 7%
Others 2%

And I'll give you a BC popular vote projection as well:

Conservatives 37%
New Democrats 37%
Greens 13%
Liberals 11%
Others 3%

I will also predict that Hedy Fry and Ujjal Dosanjh will be the most senior members in the new Liberal Party of Canada in BC federal caucus of zero MPs.

Budd

I am a lifetime new democrat not a liberal.

You sir are dreaming in technicolor if you thing the Libs and NDP will tie in National polls.

It is equally delusional to believe the NDP will tie the Cons in BC.

In BC it is safe to say:

1) the Libs will defeat the Cons in S-GI
2) The cons MAY defeat the Libs in Richmond
3) The cons will lose Emersons riding
4) The Cons will defeat the NDP in North Island

There you have it.

After all the bluff and bluster the NDP will come out with less seats in the province where they pull the most votes.

You heard it here first.

Budd Ohh Budd

Firstly, it's generally a rule of thumb that the BC federal NDP typically receives around 10 percentage points less than their BC provincial counterparts.

Secondly, I was in East Van on Saturday and decided to look at the ground campaign (lawn signs).

1. Vancouver South (Ujjal Dosanjh):

Drove up and down Main, Fraser, Victoria, and Knight Streets, SW Marine Drive, etc. Huge number of Liberal lawn signs and a smattering of Con lawn signs. Not a single NDP lawn sign! Couldn't believe it.

2. Vancouver Kingsway

On the east side of the riding, here you get NDP lawn signs and it's about even with the Liberal lawn signage. Also a smattering of Con signs.

On the west side of the riding Lib signs and Con signs but no NDP signs.

BTW, the lawn signage within the City of Vancouver is quite impressive. Barely anything in the 'burbs.

But I'll take your bet! :)

Coalition worked in Ontario

In Ontario It was a Lib-NDP coalition that acted as a "giant killer" that finally broke multi-decades of one party rule of the Ontario prov. Tories.

Dynamic Duo David Peterson (Lib)and Bob Rae (NDP)pulled it off together. The seemingly invincible Big Blue Machine was thus brought down and vanquished, and remains so to this day in Ontario. Was it Buttermilk Billy Davis, as Alan Fotheringham used to call him, who got ousted?

A veteran and architect of that historic coalition, Bob Rae, is now an influential federal Liberal. Having Rae there may increase the odds of a federal Lib-NDP coalition. 'Cause he's the guy with coalition experience who can credibly lobby for one, and educate others on how it can be done, and calm fears about "collaborating with the 'enemy'"!

And, with latest poll #s Luke Skywalker already posted above, we see the Cons. fading steadily, with all the other parties, except Greens, growing support at Cons' (and Greens)expense. This makes the prospect rosier of Libs and NDP garnering sufficient seats for a coalition.

I see Nanos' chart of the Cons. #s show a steady downtrend over the past two weeks.
http://www.nanosresearch.com/main.asp
-If Harper's Tories were a stock, investors would be dumping it in droves by now!

I notice Norman Spector opined on CKNW today that, based on poll trend lines,
a Liberal minority is shaping up to be a distinct possibility, if current trends continue.

If he's right, this will kill prospects for coalition, but will also wreck Harper's hopes for another term as PM.
I could live happily with either a coalition or a Lib minority.

I'm going to guess Dion as PM with a minority will prefer to cooperate with the NDP and others, rather than emulate Harper's arrogant example of governing as if he had a majority by making almost every bill a "confidence" bill, forcing the opposition to either allow his bills to pass or trigger an election: Harper's reckless version of the game of "chicken".
I like to think Dion would be less confrontational, more cooperative in a minority.

Harper looks like an idiot today with the credit crisis, stock markets, and global economic situation looking grimmer by the hour, plus 2 major Cdn. economists giving lie today to Harper's misleading "don't worry, be happy" claim that Canada's economy remains strong and will avert recession. Sure Steve.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/10/06/recession.html?ref=rss
No one's buying Steve's economic fairy tale, including voters, who I expect will punish Cons come Oct. 14 for cynically trying to mislead them about the state of the economy, among other things.

Maybe it's time that the

Maybe it's time that the folks can settle on some kind of a proportional election system.

I didn't do nothin'......I just sold Canada that's all

I don't think it's that Harper has a do-nothing economic policy - I think he is just not going to tell anyone what he "really" plans to do.

Thus the dopey benign pose designed to hide the real malignancy behind his real threat.

Don't worry, he's going to do plenty. And fast.

And he "knows exactly" what that plenty entails.

Today he played pat-a-cake with Canadian pre-schoolers.

Given a majority he will play pat-a-cake with the big kids from the NAU and SPP...and under his smirking do nothing pose he will sell this country.... and the bright future of those very same pre-schoolers.... right out of their tiny Canadian hands.

Half Right, politico

1) the Libs will defeat the Cons in S-GI
2) The cons MAY defeat the Libs in Richmond
3) The cons will lose Emersons riding
4) The Cons will defeat the NDP in North Island

I agree with your second and third projections, but not your first. The fourth, I simply don't know. Why would Bell loose now, given the further downturn in forestry under the Conservatives?

The "Ottawa NDP" ads the Tories are running are clearly directed at suburban and Fraser Valley voters, not people in coastal and resource communities. They've been written off.

So in my mind Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo with Michael Crawford is a strong possibility for the NDP. Even Cariboo-Prince George, with the somewhat enigmatic Bev Collins are possible upsets for Layton, although after that, in Kootenay Columbia or Okanagan Shuswap the gradient gets pretty steep. It would take a full hemmorhage of the residual populist vote coming directly over from the Conservatives to move those seats.

As for your lifelong NDP story, I don't believe it for a minute.

BUdd

The Card in my pocket is orange and BLUE, very fitting.

I have been a NDP'r since the 1980's and have never voted for anyone else.

No one on the Island attributes the forestry downfall to Harper's conservative's.

Bell won by a few hundred votes and barely showed up. Now the desperate are looking to Father Harper for guidance in these troubled times.

The enlightened in S-GI are ahead of all of us and the rest of those there inflicted with wealth are not sure the little Lunnchkin can pull it out of the fire for them.

Bottom Line. Most money ever spent by NDP delivers less seats. Period.

Largely due to a brain dead strategy that is hurting the country.

Every act of a minority government is a coalition

We don't need a coalition government yet.
We do need a voter-driven proportional representation.
We need to vote strategically. Now everyone knows why Harper rushed into this election. He wanted to be re-elected before the crunch - It hasn't come, but, we can see it's coming. The last thing we need is a Friedman economist like Harper at the helm. Increasing profits for big corporations and depending on "trickle down" benefits (read crumbs) won't work. We can stop him Canada.
Strategic voting is a must in this election. We need to keep Harper not only out of majority but out of government. Look at your own area and work to defeat conservatives.
Vanc.Island:Currently 3 NDP. 1 L. 2 Cons.
Conservatives are throwing massive $ to try to win North Island - from NDP Catherine Bell.NDP over Cons.last time by 600 votes. 42% NDP,41% Con,13% Lib,5% Gn. Grns & Libs need to vote NDP to ensure this riding stays out of Con hands.
Cons also are trying to regain Nanaimo- Cowichan where Jean Crowder won handily last time. 47% NDP - 32% Lib. Conservatives are running an old reform MP and sparing no expense, L & G candidates are great people but well back. Voting NDP keeps this riding safe.
Victoria - NDP MP Denise Savoie is likely safe with a Liberal running 2nd.
Likewise in Esquimalt- Juan de Fuca Liberal Keith Martin held off an NDP challenge in 2006 and will likely hold off NDP Jennifer Burgess this time.
These 2 ridings are unlikely Conservative prospects so - just vote. NDP or LIB.
Saanich & Gulf Islands is an opportunity to give the environment a gift by defeating Cons Gary Lunn. IN 2006 - it was C- 37- NDP -27 - L 26 - G 10.
NDP West has withdrawn. Both Lib & Grn candidates are very strong.
To beat Lunn NDPs need to vote for Liberal Briony Penn .
Nanaimo - Port Alberni is held by perennial Con backbencher - James Lunney.
2006 - C-41%-NDP-32% Lib 19% Grn 5%. All 3 of Lunney's opponents are very good. A tough call to go with a second chooice but to beat Lunney - Libs & Grns need to vote for NDP Maartman. 2 of my friends sent $10.00 to E. May and then voted NDP in the advance poles. Wise choice for Canada.
Vancouver Island could be Tory-free.
ABC - Not 'cause they're bad - 'cause they're wrong.

Budd...

Why would Layton want to go up there to the riding tomorrow if it was safe? 'Cause he's trying to protect what he has. The riding is becoming more and more a haven for Albertan retirees.

And why has Layton been to the Burnaby-Douglas riding a few times, including today? Agian, he's trying to protect what he has.

If Layton is trying to protect what he has and has not yet been to more lower hanging fruit like Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission (like he did in 2006), that should say something about the NDP's BC internal polling numbers.

The Liberals side with the Cons

Alas, the plan would not work, for the Libs are just about the same as the Conselfservatives these days. They all voted against the Workers' First bill, settling for a washed out version of help for workers when they get screwed in a bankruptcy. The only reason the Libs aren't as popular right now is because they aren't enjoying the free ad-like support of the Asper media, while Harper is. Neverhtless, the Libs would still side with the Cons against any of the progressive things the Greens and NDP are interested in--like the environment and help for the poor, the sick and poor working stiffs who pay the lions' share of the taxes.

Might be the only hope

In an increasingly unbalanced world, conservative thinking will dominate. It tends to happen with societies in decline (I refer more to our southern neighbour) and 'fear, security, tradition' become societal priorities.

The Left will have to come together to counteract this, so I think the idea of a coalition is not only desirable, but a must if we're going to solve macro issues such as energy policy, the environment, etc., etc.

The problem is the two party history of this country has created a Liberal party that, despite its less than 30% current poll standing, still views itself as the 'natural' leaders of the country.

Perhaps this election will give the Liberals one big reality check and even make them fans of proportional representation.

Vegguy

Hate to rain on your parade but strategic voting is stupid!
Granted the Greens won`t win this time but if all her supporters vote NDP or Liberal how can you ever judge party support?

If the Greens managed 18 to 20 % of the vote in this election,with a minority goverment we may be back at the polls in 1 year!
With that kind of momentum the next election could maybe bring them to opposition status or more.The same scenario exists for the NDP.

Being an honest sort I will admit that I am voting Conservative in the federal election, NDP in the BC provincial election and if I was voting in the USA I would be voting Obama.

If the 3rd or 4th parties of Canada supporters continue to vote strategicaly they will never rise and no I am not trying to trick anyone. If you really care about party support and believe your parties platforms then give them the vote!

All your doing by voting against your own party is permanetly keeping them down.

Dion, Layton and May

I’d like to make a push for a change in our elections systems, if I may. A few years ago, we had a close vote in BC that proposed proportional representation. But not enough people voted for it to muster the minimum 65% required by our government of the day. However, that’s democracy and we are fortunate to be living in a democratic country, I guess.

A writer on a BBC blog doesn’t think democracies are all the great. He said, "The problem with democracy is that everybody gets a vote. Even stupid people, and there are a frightening number of them out there.... No, your best bet is an absolute ruler, preferably a benevolent one who'll keep to the law, treat everyone equally, and cause no unnecessary trouble. A Machiavellian dictator is the best way to go. Democracy is just a sham to keep the masses under control."

This was part of a letter I wrote which was published in a number of Okanagan newspapers promoting PR. I think it is fitting to remember that you are dealing with a fickle bunch of voters right across Canada. Unlike politics in the States, we are not born into a particular political party, and even over a period of a week (considering these monsterous times) or a day, we can change our position on whom we will vote for. Nothing ticks me off more that our riding has and is supporting wonderboy Stockwell Day. I just wish the Liberal Party, or the NDP could come up with some real gun-slingers to cut him down. Amazingly, the Green Party candidate put Stockwell in his place at the last all-candidates meeting. So, although I know he hasn't a chance of being elected, I'm going with my heart and will vote for him.

The Bloc would or should be

The Bloc would or should be included in the Coalition. Their policies are in line with ABC.

Dont hold your breath

A Liberal/NDP/Green coalition would make a lot of sense, but right now, the numbers aren't there. Greens are still unlikely to win any seats. NDP have not hit the threshold where they will break through and win a lot more seats. Between the three of them, they will not have a majority unless the Liberals break big in the next week. Even if they do, taking seats from the NDP won't help the coalition. They have to take Conservative seats, and those are probably pretty solid unless the platform really reeks or the economy blows up. Mind you , anything can happen in politics, but it looks like coalition will have to wait on electoral reform.

Did I mention that Fair Vote Canada is having a contest to guess how many votes will be wasted in this election? Post your guess here: www.OrphanVoters.ca

No one on the Island

No one on the Island attributes the forestry downfall to Harper's conservative's.
...
Bottom Line. Most money ever spent by NDP delivers less seats. Period.

Largely due to a brain dead strategy that is hurting the country.

Where do you get this stuff from? It sounds like a Brad Zubyk tape running in an endless loop.

No one blames the Govt of the day for economic problems. When did that start? Less seats? According to one person, you. A brain dead strategy? A strategy that has not only survived the Green trap that Suzuki and Jaccard and May and Dion were laying for the NDP, but is headed for an historic high in the national and possibly the BC popular vote as well.

That supposed NDP card and voting record are pure fiction. What makes you think people are going to believe you?

All the more reason to ban all polling

All the more reason to ban all polling during election campaigns.

Polling once the writ is dropped should be an indictable offence...with the time to be served by the party leader.

Let's put democracy, what little we have of it left, back into the hands of the people and out of the hands of a bunch of idiots on phone banks.

I have a dream...

that one day I will be able to register a vote simply for what I believe in, rather than voting "strategically". Although the coalition explored here would be fascinating and likely effective (and imagine if everyone played nice...), in my opinion, a more realistic pursuit is a proportional voting system: to me, MORE likely to be an effective way for Canadians to have a true political voice.

Dion, Layton, May Coalition

What a sad laugh this would be.
If that happened this Liberal would vote Conservative.
No I'm not voting Liberal this time.

Dion government

Would slash taxes for corporations and cut social transfers for health and welfare. Which is what they did last time they were in government too.

Plus they'll introduce green taxes so that Canada's poor will produce less emissions while for everyone else it'll be business as usual.

Luke

As you said about Ekos

"Trends are incremental but I have seen huge daily shifts in the BC numbers by Ekos, Harris Decima, and the weeklies by Ipsos. They are wonky and don't make much sense."

and

"Numbers in BC just don't change this erratically overnight."

Nanos has has the NDP making bizarre ups and downs in Atlantic Canada. Up 6% two nights ago and then down 3% last night. Kinda hard to believe that.

Polls are useless!

Here is one for you Liberal supporters.

ANSWERE ME THIS---The green shift

Stephane Dion stated last week that he would harmonize the Green shift carbon taxes with the Campbell carbon taxes so we wouldn`t get a double whammy here in BC.

The Green shift of Dion comes with a bunch of tax cuts--Well answere this, If the carbon tax is collected and gets sent to Gordon Campbell and the BC liberals where is Dion going to get the money to honour his tax cuts to BCers when he isn`t collecting it?
Is Dion going to write seperate tax code for BCers or Are the other provinces going to make up the difference and send their carbon tax money to BCers to make up the diffrence?
The Liberal plan doesn`t add up, if it does,someone please explain it to me!

WHAT Financial crisis?

Washington Post: "Unfolding Worldwide Turmoil Could Reverse Years of Prosperity"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/06/AR2008100603249.html

"Last week, the nation's political leaders said the financial system would collapse unless they passed a $700 billion rescue package for Wall Street. On Monday, the first day of trading after the plan passed, the financial system continued to melt down anyway.

Here's why: The plan developed by Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. to buy troubled U.S. mortgage assets might not start for another month. And, despite its huge price tag, it already seems paltry compared with the scale of the rapidly evolving global crisis.

"People are realizing that the Paulson plan is not going to be nearly enough. It's not because the plan is ill-conceived. It looks like it's the right thing to do, but the problem is just growing astronomically," said Martin Evans, a professor of finance and economics at Georgetown University.

Robert B. Zoellick, president of the World Bank, said the global financial system may have reached a "tipping point" -- the moment when a crisis cascades into a full-blown meltdown and becomes extremely difficult for governments to contain.

The mushrooming problems "will trigger business failures and possibly banking emergencies. Some countries will slip toward balance-of-payment crises," he said yesterday, speaking at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

The crisis threatens to reverse years of prosperity that financed the economic growth in developed and emerging countries through a global financial system that made credit widely available. Banks and governments were able to borrow money on an unprecedented scale by selling debt in new kinds of packages, allowing even the least creditworthy consumers to borrow and spend..."

--Meanwhile, Stephen Harper as Emperor fiddles while Rome burns, singing: "Don't worry, be happy,no serious problems here in Canada!"

Bob 999

I get it and you get it.

Does Harper understand?

Bloomberg is reporting "Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said a recent decline in stock prices may present good buying opportunities."

The Bank of Canada on the other hand is unwilling to provide anymore money to Bailout the US theives, again from Bloomberg "The Bank of Canada said it won't join other central banks that today announced a schedule of auctions of U.S. dollars aimed at shoring up distressed global credit markets."

Maybe Mr. Harper understands but would rather people lose all thier savings/equity after everything is all said and done.

Reality bites

Unless Dion's campaign somehow pulls off the ultimate hail mary and squeaks out a minority Liberal parliament, M. Dion is out of a job.

Period.

The rest of them have their knives already sharp, the Liberal caucus will drop Dion like a hot rock the day after he delivers...nothing.

Once that happens whatever 'plans' there may be for coalition or shared governance will fall to ashes. The Liberals are already getting prepared for a November or early December convention.

The Greens, unless there is an amazing sea shift in enough ridings will not likely elect anyone. They will earn more $ under the current scheme and this is ok, I guess.

The only potential winner for a coalition might be Layton, but he only gets to push for this sort of arrangement if the NDP manages to get more seats than the the Libs, so far I do not see the popular support translating into more NDP seats than Liberal ones...then again maybe there are more "emersons" waiting in the Liberal Party, just champing at the bit to rush off to the NDP just so they can cool their heels on the front bench of the opposition?

Not.

The really scary bit is that the Bloc is more likely to form the opposition...especially if the continued melt-down of the Libs accelerates any more in Ontario.