NDP Needs New Leader

We are at the half way point of the latest Gordon Campbell term of office and he's flying high, for the most part untouched by either bad luck or opposition blows. He's in the midst of a boom and, while he perhaps can't take credit for all that, the rule in B.C. seems to be whatever good or bad happens in your administration, you get praise for the former and shit for the latter.

Those of a certain age will remember the wonderfully satiric comic strip, Pogo. Albert Alligator after arranging a picnic for all the animals bragged about the fine weather. When Pogo remonstrated by saying, "Albert you can't take credit for the weather," Albert simply replied: "Why not, it happened during my administration, didn't it?"

The policies of the Campbell government have annoyed and vexed a large number of B.C. voters. Unfortunately for the opposition, they are the people who wouldn't support Gordon Campbell under any circumstances. The poor, the handicapped, the mentally ill, single parents, the disadvantaged generally are in the bag for the NDP, however that support isn't enough to vote them in.

It's rather like what Adlai Stevenson said during the 1952 presidential election when told that every intelligent American would vote for him. Stevenson replied "unfortunately I need a majority."

Polls and personality

A winning margin for the NDP is not yet in range, even if the poll released Friday by Ipsos Reid shows the NDP up four points (to 36 per cent) and BC Liberals down four (to 45 per cent).

And even the approval rating for NDP Leader Carole James is up three points (to 54 per cent) while Premier Campbell's dropped four (to 49 per cent).

As I mentioned last week, I believe that James brought the wrong type of political experience to the legislature. Here's her political background in a Wikipedia nutshell:

"James served on the Greater Victoria School Board from 1990 to 2001, including seven terms as Chair, and gained a province-wide profile in her unprecedented five terms as President of the BC School Trustees' Association. She also served at the national level as Vice-President of the Canadian School Boards Association. From 1999 to 2001, James held the position of Director of Child Care Policy for the British Columbia government. In addition, she served on several local and provincial panels and committees."

This experience is mainly the politics of persuasion, of calm debate without political party rancor. That James had experience chairing meetings governed by Robert's Rules of Order is, if anything, unhelpful in trying to take a minority party to power.

Tough enough?

Let's pause here for a moment because this is where I start to catch hell.

I didn't invent this system and in fact have worked very hard to see it changed. But until it is changed, if ever, politics in B.C. will remain a blood sport which is no more helpful to Carole James than it was to Mike Harcourt and Bob Skelly, who also were very nice NDP leaders who failed. (Yes, Harcourt won the 1991 election but that's because the now hated Socreds collapsed. Having got power, he couldn't hold it.)

James would be wise to ponder the fact that the only real NDP victory came in 1996 when Glen Clark beat the favoured Gordon Campbell. That Clark later ran up on his own sword over the fast ferries is irrelevant to the fact that he was tough, ran a tough campaign and succeeded.

Who might lead?

What must Carole James and the NDP do?

Resign and find a new leader. Even if, as I have suggested, Carole James picks up on the theme of reforming government, it will be too late. Worse for her and the NDP, it's a catch-22, for until there is change, a person like James -- decent, hardworking, polite as she is -- has no chance of winning.

The even worse news is that there doesn't seem to be a replacement in the wings.

Adrian Dix has the brains and the love of a fight but may still be tainted by the time he backdated a document which helped out Glen Clark. In his favour, Dix made a complete admission and apology which usually makes those who remember forget and those who don't remember say, "So what, politics is a dirty game."

Issues abound

There are plenty of issues in addition to the usual ones about the poor and other disadvantaged people. There's transportation, such as the Gateway project or the Cambie Street mess arising out of RAV, oops! Canada Line.

There's the bonanza to Campbell's developer friends along the Sea-to-Sky.

The BC Rail sale to CN, thanks to the Basi-Virk trial, will remain an issue.

There is the ever increasing problem with Atlantic salmon fish farms. And, of course, finally the environment has come to the fore.

These issues must be exploited with care and political savvy. Take highways and the horror story of much of the Gateway project. While many oppose these initiatives, for the opposition to succeed, it must have viable alternatives because highway projects provide jobs and prosperity to the regions where they happen.

There is also, as I have written, the "democracy deficit." People fed up with not having real influence upon one-man governments want change. And although James wants change too -- if only because she can't get the NDP elected under the present structure -- this issue requires knowledge and the kind of "meaner than a junkyard dog" meanness not possessed by the present NDP leadership.

Waiting game will fail

Politics requires more than talent. Winners are able to see issues, articulate a policy and keep at it.

The sins of the Campbell government will not, on their own, bring them down unless those evils are perceived by a majority of voters as being serious. That perception will only happen if the opposition is able to demonstrate the evil and offer viable alternatives.

Unless there's a side to Carole James yet to be disclosed, if she remains leader -- barring a miracle -- Campbell will win a third term in 2009.

Related Tyee stories:

• How Campbell Killed Debate
  And why the NDP should make it their issue.
• Tough Questions for Carole James
  As the election comes down to the wire, some hard questions for James and the NDP.
• Carole James Drummed into Power
  The NDP's new leader vows to hit the road again to build her party "one person at a time."