One of Bill's "reasons" to vote NDP could just as easily be offered as a reason to vote for the Conservatives, since they voted with the NDP for the "anti-scab" Bill 263.

Wrong, as Tieleman points out above. Check Hansard. Most of the Conservatives voted with Dion and the Liberal cabinet against the rights of workers.

But when I raised it, it was mainly in the context of the NDP's brutish excommunication of Canadian Auto Workers president Buzz Hargrove for suggesting that maybe it wouldn't be so evil to vote Liberal in those ridings where a Liberal vote could keep a Conservative out of office

Brutish? Jebus. What political party on earth would find it acceptable for a member of its executive to suggest that voters support the opposition candidates? Hargrove betrayed NDP supporters and candidates and got the treatment he deserved.

Yah, this one is a rewind, alright.

Firstly, I'm not all that much in disagreement with Terry's stance... but only in regards to the general aspects of his rebuttal. The reason is that I see Harper as a dangerous man who will dismantle, decentralize, divide, whatever you want to call it, this country for the U.S. to come in and own us further.

Anyone who follows business knows that the reason why he wants to get rid of the CBC is because of the power this crown corp has to inspire nationalism. It can be said that its a Liberal mouthpiece, but the fact is, the CBC has been a huge part of our heritage in this respect and has the power to remind us of who we are. And think for a moment... the Asper family is now sitting on 1.1 billion of Canwest cash. Could they make a bid to buy the CBC? Think for a moment on how we Canadians would like to have a big large chunk of our media owned by an Israeli owned family who's own strings are being pulled by the U.S... think about that one long and hard, because if the Cons get in with a majority, it will likely happen.

And the wheatboard will be gone, replaced by U.S. grainhandling monopolies.
And the RCMP contracts will be encouraged to expire in the provinces.
And habeous corpus will be reversed in the rule of law as it has been in the U.S.
And we'll have elected senators, something that would remove a fair chunk of powers from the commons... is this needed?
And we'll have deregulation of the banks and insurance companies in this country and that's checkmate. We lose our economic sovereignty and its over. We'll just be figureheads, controlled by the empire at that point. Mulroney wanted this in the FTA, by the way, and backed off when he realized Canadian business wouldn't go for it... and he tried to it within 72 hours of signing the agreement, but he lost 10 points within the first 24 hrs in the polls and backed off with 24hrs to go, because it wasn't going to happen, even with a Con majority. But this time its different. Harper isn't after a second term. He's after weakening this nation for a U.S. takeover in any and all respects including the breakup of this country if necessary, and entirely, most specifically for U.S. born multinationals.

Harpers bigotry and marriage of church and state as is the same with Bush, his appetite for military spending, his stance on gays and FN's and womens rights is appalling, his stance on the environment is uncomparable to any other party with the fact that he does nothing for the future, never mind the present and his big changes in criminal law is to further take away the rights of humans as a whole. He likes guns at the borders, guns in the closet, and guns in our soldiers hands. Who does he appeal to? The selfish voter. The one who votes solely for self interests. His gameplan hasn't changed since he led the National Citizens Coalition, a U.S. corp sponsored organization with ties to the Republican party.

Harpers softwood lumber deal is appalling in the sense that it gave away 454 million directly into the whitehouse's hands... ie. the Republican party, and he used the most crooked MP in this country to do it. Tax cuts to social programs, to education, to womens rights, to FN's, for what, a GST cut from 7 to 6%? Are Canadians so stupid as to not know where this money is coming from? I can go own about their inept fiscal policies and their muzzling of MP's and cabinet ministers, and yes men or else attitude. Dangerous motions being passed concerning the sovereignty of Quebec "as a nation" and on... and on, but one thing should be clear to Liberals, NDP supporters and Greens alike. Harpers got to go.
Cont.

Cont.
Unfortunately... the NDP has been so fixated with taking Liberal support (cause you know a selfish voter would never vote for the NDP...) and getting rid of the Liberals to become the dominant party of this country, they are leaving the most dangerous party to this country alone. And in so doing, they are losing support because of this failure to recognize how dangerous Harper is, and how voters are waking up to Harper and looking for the leaders and parties that will oppose him the best. Should "Harpers got to go" be an NDP mantra chant? Duh!! but its not.

What is happening is that people are holding their noses to vote for the Liberals because voters believe, and see, that the NDP isn't opposing the most dangerous party to Canada enough. And anyone who is like myself with an "anyone but Harper" chant, gets real nervous when a political party either doesn't see the worst enemy to this nation, or won't do anything about it. So what does the voter do? Support someone who will. If the NDP went after Harper as much as they criticized the Libs, it might be a different story. Sadly, this isn't happening and the NDP is losing votes because of this strategy... which brings up this quote.

Again, unfortunately, and highly so, this meeting half way for the NDP isn't good enough. This strategy is percieved as being favorable to the Liberal party, as the Liberal party historically and poll indicative suggests that one should vote Liberal to oppose the Conservatives. And sadly, this NDP thinking is erroneously moot. Read the quote again. It means simply, don't support Harper's government and vote for the best candidate in your riding. That's what voting with our "hearts" and "minds" does... but not to the hardline NDP'er.

And I must confess, Bill Tielman has missed it again. The only reasons Bill has offered in support of voting for the NDP, is, "the Liberals are a bad government". Not a peep on the Conservative government, the most dangerous one to Canada. Does anyone find this odd? Not to an NDP'er. To an NDP'er, the Cons are natural enemies, and so, they aren't worth mentioning... yawn.

Tieleman mentioned next to nothing in terms of why we actually should vote for the NDP. Oh, we hear why we shouldn't vote Liberal. We don't hear a thing about why we shouldn't vote Conserative, what we hear is that "the Liberals are bad". So what is the NDP record? We don't know. That's informative... Why should we vote for the NDP other than reading a column that offers the display of one party bashing with names dropped getting all personal? We don't know. Bill Tieleman never told us. There's no discussion of platform, of voting records, of which it seems, both writers have less than perfect memories...

Just look at this in comparison, these points from Bill:

Fact: Canada during the Liberals' 13 years in power increased greenhouse gases by 30 per cent.
Fact: every oil & gas producing nation's greenhouse emissions have risen with increased production worldwide. The key question is, what have the Libs done since Kyoto 8 years ago (which has at present been next to nothing), has the CO2 rise in emissions mirrored the rise in the price of oil and gas, and what could have been done? With these questions we are left to guess.

Journalists are supposed to provide facts and links to back up their assertions. But here, even in round two, we are only left guessing. Christ, two years ago, Bush was still controlling global warming PR. 5 years ago, it wasn't even on anyone's radar. People simply were not made aware of how dangerous a threat global warming is. So without this level of awareness in mainstream public, is the electorate to expect the Liberal party to be nights in shining armour?

Cont.
Its most certainly no excuse for the Liberals doing next to nothing, but this "global warming" talk needs to be put in its place. 5 years ago, no one was talking about it. As little as one year ago, it wasn't even an issue, because the media, along with the other political parties, didn't want to put a microphone in front of the Green party. Now... thats a fact.

Fact: Under Kyoto, Canada promised to reduce them by 20 per cent.

Fact: This promise is 9 years old, not 14 years old, and once again, it wasn't even an election issue as little as a year ago. So while everyones now on the global warming bandwagon, we forgot the history of these very journalists who have mentioned nothing in terms of environmental issues themselves? For shame.

Fact: Canada under the Liberals did a worse job than George W. Bush.
Fact: And this is where the facts get murky. While the U.S. only produces a quarter of their annual energy production on their own soil, the U.S. actually produces more than they consume. How? Through multinationals that operate all over the world, and in our back yard specifically. To say that the U.S. has not had a hand in pushing our CO2 emissions through multinational exploitation of our energy, is a complete and total smear of the truth with nothing but lies. This one upsets me most. Who's stopping the tarsands from full blown exploitation? Noone. Everyone wants the money. Who's pushing it? Its more provincial than federal, and its more American driven than Canadian. Lets get these facts straight, shall we? The U.S. owns 80% of our energy after all.

And what's happened to oil and gas commodities since George Bush has taken power? We've seen a barrel of oil go from 28 dollars U.S., to 14 U.S., to 78 and currently sits at $62.00 U.S. a barrel. This has driven Alberta into another boon time bonanza with anyone who's followed the commodity value timeline since 2000 and CO2 emissions have skyrocketed as a result.

So here's the difficult question. Is the NDP willing to say no to this revenue, while increasing spending to social programs? I think we all know the answer to that one. Their provincial parties certainly aren't. Is the Liberal record forgivable due to such a major demand for oil and gas? No, its not. This industry needs major regulations with CO2 emissions, as well as a healthy increase in royalties and an end to 1.5 billion in subsidies.

Simply put, the Liberals are on record as being pro business when it comes to oil and we've seen the results... and the provincial NDP's are no different. But I ask you this. Is anyone complaining about surplus's? (some dummies are, saying we have to spend it, you know, we'll all suffer if we don't) Is anyone willing to cut off the money train that comes with the exploitation of these resources?

And the final question... how much control does the feds have on Alta provincial politics? The answers continue to come back to lax regulations for the oil industry, and obvious lobby interests by the industry to have nothing done whatsover in both the Con and Lib parties. So who has the moral high ground? Well, concerning the environment, its not the NDP. They didn't start greening up until 18 to 24 months ago, forced into the kneejerk by the Green party, like the rest of the parties in this country. And I shouldn't have to mention the trips Lorne Calvert (NDP) has made to drum up "foreign investment" from the U.S, lately to prove my point.

Summary:
Politics is well known for dividing families, putting best friends at odds with each other, instilling bitter rivalries and on and on for a reason. It comes down to the portrayal of facts. And as anyone can see with any thread they read, including the article above, Facts get distorted. Inaccuracies of actual history itself, we did this and they did that tit for tat that exposes, when in reflection, the opposite holding true as an often reoccuring theme. And its one thing to put out half truths and fallacies to snow the voter, but quite another to outright lie, which politicans do with negative attacks and smears all the time... from all sides, including their base supporters.

And the electorate is so sick and fed up with the distortions of these truths, that the pundits and the political columns and the opinions of "experts" beads off on us like rain on wax. When we hear opinion pieces, we quite literally expect to get lied to. We quite literally expect bias and exaggerations and stretchers and just plain ineptitude, because its a matter of record. And so, we vote with our heads and hearts regardless of what someone on the payroll has to say about it.

So until I hear a writer who is willing to look at the Pros and Cons of each and every party in terms of platforms, leadership, candidates running, and history itself which holds many valuable lessons we need not relive to learn from, instead of cherry picking through history to prove a biased point, than what can I say? Am I really all that impressed with round two?

Not at all. Both writers have only adressed a portion of the Liberal record and cherry picked when its suited their arguements. We hear nothing about the NDP, Cons and Greens in terms of what they are or are not doing for us, just a worn out arguement of the Liberal record.

The focus, Terry and Bill, was not "the Liberals are better" or "the Liberals are worse"... it was supposed to be about the NDP party, remember? Is this really the best either of you could do?

ndp.ca
conservative.ca
greenparty.ca
liberal.ca

I guess we just have to sift through the propaganda ourselves, or try to find a gem in a shitpile of bias bull in the media in the hopes of finding a journalist who shoots it straight because what I've seen so far, is two rounds from amateurs that aren't doing their job, which is to write about the full on pro's and cons of them all and if turns into a book? 10 links? Hey, we've got time, have we not? Why else do readers come here if not to read. So please... would you both (Terry and Bill) stop the bias and quit feeding us crap? Perhaps stick to some unbias facts and do what journalists with principles are supposed to do? Please? We all get the same old rewind everywhere else, could you switch it up for us, just this once?

Voting Liberal, Conservative and NDP will only continue this charade called Canada.

We need to see this country in a new light, as the present two solitudes is very passe.

Voting Green will help change this country and force it kicking and screaming into the future.

- The Liberals are vastly too corrupt.
- The NDP are so stuck in dated dogma that they are next to useless.
- The Conservatives are a neo religious fanatical party, based on the failed US neo-con experiment.

If Canada is to survive we need the likes of Glavin and Tielman to think out of the box.

"Just be sure to vote for whichever candidate is likely to keep the Conservative at bay."

Amen.

One reason you might think Conservative, (even you might not like it) is the indisputable fact that Prime Minister Harper appears to be delivering on the promises.

Unprecedented I'd say.

Glad to see the Brain at work - and working harder than Glavin and I combined, since his comments are longer than the two of us contributed!

Rather than see a conspiracy where I only attack Liberals and not the Conservatives, try reading some of my columns in 24 hours.

I agree - the NDP should hammer and tong the Conservatives. This has been one of their electoral strategy failings over many years, not to mention being the right thing to do.

But - a caveat - the degree of corruption that flourished under the Chretien and Martin Liberals in their last 13 year term - AdScam, Shawnigate, Gagliano, etc - could only be ended by a change of government.

The Conservatives deserve some credit for the Accountability Act, which will help end some of the rampant cronyism and dirty lobbying that was going on.

That said, Stephen Harper should be as much if not more a target for the NDP as Stephane Dion. And the Greens!

Well, after reading round one and round two I have to say I enjoyed and found myself getting more inspired with the response from The Brain, than anything written by Tieleman or Glavin.

Maybe the Tyee needs more Brain?

I'm of the opinion that the Liberals and Conservatives are has-beens. They are sticking to the tried and failed agenda while the Greens and the CAP are leading the way to a larger picture that has been so neglected by the L&Cs that we are in a war in Afghanistan while the majority of Canadians don't want us there.

The L&C parties are so similar that if we vote for either of them we are voting against our future and why vote for poison when you can just eat it?

The Green Party , in my view, harkens back to the old NDP roots.

Voters who actually vote Green will be parking a protest vote.

Other Voters will make a connection, either conscious or subconscious, that supporting the Green Party will very likely lead to the resurrection of another version of the NDP. We are discussing the viability of the Left/ NDP,correct, hence you get the picture, ie thus why re-load for the same old ?

I listen to one local Green Party candidate, who must thus also speak for the Green Party, and this lad would easily fit into the NDP 30 years ago.

The Green Party is continually held up as some Great Political Hope, when in fact it hasn't, admittedly, done anything overtly "wrong" to hang or indict itself...hence it currently looks superior to those other political parties and their track records.

Left Wing parties, especially the NDP, whenever they have actually been given "a chance" at the reins of power, is again based on a protest vote. The other political parties simply lick their wounds and re-load for next time . That is THE pattern, assisted by the fact the NDP/Left often give the voters plenty of reason to attain the crown of Opposition again....but NOW they can't even perform THAT old role.

The other political parties will simply morph and evolve, and simply creatively tweak their "left" or "right" of center package, while the Greens will simply be a Protest Vote party, perhaps keeping its supporters happy venting on a soapbox re: certain issues as some Unoffical Unelected opposition.

I think many are missing a MUCH BIGGER point,and that the LEFT, however RE -packaged, ....however umbrella'd etc. ...have had their day, and the Voters, by and large, are more and more coming to this same basic collective epiphany.

gasworks: "One reason you might think Conservative, (even you might not like it) is the indisputable fact that Prime Minister Harper appears to be delivering on the promises.

Unprecedented I'd say"

Income trusts was clearly a broken promise. Since they really haven't done much, except embarrass us on the world stage (thanks Day/Ambrose), I don't think you can say they have delivered much at all.

Until Day proves that dinosaurs did, in fact, walk with humans, no reasonable person should vote for his party.

Fact: Liberals talk a bunch, but do nothing.
Fact: The NDP will stay in the wilderness
Fact: The Greens will remain fringe
Fact: The Bloc is regional only
Fact: The Conservatices are actually doing something.

Teleman is certainly a tired, worn out hack. What he writes can hardly pass as "journalism" anywhere. What he wrote in 24 yesterday could have been done by a grade seven student better. No scources, straw man attacks and obvious bias. I don't think that it is a coincidence that Bill's olde buddie Glen Clark runs 24. Good old nepotism, Bill, because without it, you'd be asking your clients if hey wanted it supersized.

Instead of being a productive member of society who creates wealth, I think I am going to become a "pundit" so I can follow politicians around licking their boots hoping a crumb might fall my way. In political terms, that is called "consulting communications." You do not actually need any talent other than boot licking as Bill has shown us.

Pretty obvious he is waiting for miracle that his benefactors might pull off a miracle in 2009. Since this is practically impossible, he has changed to butt-licking COPE in the vain hope they can restore their antics in the next Vancouver council. With him "consulting" for them, of course on my dime.

Anytime you want a real job, Bill, e-mail me.

Chris H - I won't be voting for Day

For cryinout loud who wrote "Maybe the Tyee needs more Brain?"

A review of the four chapter manuscript published by the "Brain" (see above) shows a redundant thinker who loves typing and writes obvious no brainers.

Great essay the Brain. Normally I would vote for the candidate I most agreed with, but this time it's different.

gaswork: The promises that the cons have kept are empty. A free vote in the commons re: same sex marriages? Please, they damn well knew that it wouldn't pass but they also knew that they could use the "kept our promise" defense.

sdgreen: So the cons have actually done something. It doesn't mean it's for the better.

working man: When did you become such an a-hole. Do you realize the hypocrisy of spewing a 3 paragraph tirade against Tieleman complaining that he uses strawman attacks and bias without any support for your arguments. If you're going to offer up your email, I suggest that you actually include it in your posts you coward.

Disagree again, working man:

I owe you an apology on that last thread, had you pegged wrong on the union front. Aside from this, Tieleman is no hack. And he's right with his addressing my responses and obvious frothings of displeasure and discontent. I should check out his columns more than I do to get a full picture of the man's work and this includes Terry's as well.

Nevertheless, is it up to me to dig that deep? All that is needed is a link and I'll go there.

Otherwise, I agree fully with Bills post above and appreciate it immensely when writers offer feedback on these threads. It means they are watching and learning off of our responses and I find it impossible to criticize any writer who does so. Its what all writers should do to master their craft. Feedback helps!

I don't see this bill or draft of a bill seeing the light of day. While the drafts have their own set of problems when sifting through it on the Con sight (it does nothing to prevent directorships after MP's leave the commons and handcuffing corporate donations isn't exactly something the Cons will even go for, so its one giant bluff. And will the NDP go for cutting off union checks? Will any party go for allowing church group organizations and organizations such as the NCC to contribute to political parties while setting strict limits to individual donations of which all parties rely on except the Cons themselves?), the large part of it that is of substance that won't see passed legislation. In my view, its a PR scheme that was never meant to get off the ground and into law.

As for the Cons living up to their promises, look at what they've promised and tell me its still good for the country. Knock of a GST point and cut social spending to places that need it in order to pay for this cut? Unimpressive. Transparency? Openness to the media? Its to ugly to be laughable. Did we ever need raises to military spending? Did we need 2200 soldiers penned up in a place where 300 american soldiers died out of 8000 over 3 years? That's our future if we want to hold the ugly torch of "freedom and democracy", a polite term for nationbuilding and U.S. brainwashing PR. Income splitting? They turfed the guy who thought it up. Some reward. Corporate tax cuts in high flying times? Not the prescription from where I'm standing. I can go on, but there is nothing flattering about the promises the Cons have kept... and broken.

Wealth can not be created, only taken.

Try to understand this simple physical fact, if your ideologically warped mind can reach that far.

The definition of economics is "The science for the management and distribution of scarce resources"

Which has never happened under any ideology, or economic theory, all of them turned into legalized theft and power grab. The worst, in our time, being the idiot twins of communism and capitalism

Nothing can be created, only resources turned into other forms and ultimately into garbage and pollution. What's called "wealth creation" is the transforming of resources and collecting the benefits, either by the producers, or as now, the ideologically blessed middlemen screwing both the producers and the users, and stealing the benefits.

Ideologies have all been proven wrong and are, orf should be dead. Those who push them are either fools, or crooks.

Unless the world turns to a physical law based economic system, humanity can simply bend down and kiss its ass goodbye, hoping for salvation in another world.

The kindest words I can say about Mr.Harper is that he's an ideologically and religiously warped nutcase.........

Ed Deak.

AMEN!
He represent the old reform party, no matter what his label is today!

Thanks Brain - appreciate it.

But the Accountability Act received royal assent yesterday - it's the law.

As to Working Man, try working up some new lines. Get all your crayons out this time.

Amazing! The essays and columns by Glavin and Tieleman are not that interesting, yet the comments go on and on for days, "full of sound and fury...".
I would like the Tyee to limit comments to one per person per column, 800 words max. This would force writers to focus on their main point, and possibly keep the reader from dropping out from exhaustion and boredom.

I resent the remark about COWS, I’ ve never known of a dumb cow, but know of a manure load of dumb NDPers.

mjf:
Assuming you don't like long posts, you still read it, didn't you? And if you didn't, why the bitch? For that matter, if you come up against something challenging or boring, glaze it over. Move on. No ones forcing you to read what you don't want to, its a free world. Should we bitch when we see a book simply because its full of pages? And if all you're looking for is short and sometimes not so sweet one liners... man, that's deep.

Right on, Ed Deak. But every time I go to the store and pick out stuff I need, they keep wanting money for it. Most of us are forced into participating with a looney system whether we like it or not. The vaste population just can't move into the boonies in protest and live off the fat of the land and if they did, they'd pollute it, same as they do in the cities. So while I agree fully with what you're saying, certain hands are forced. For now some things are beyond our control. If it wasn't the case, you, I and others would have stopped the madness already. It begins with awareness though, appreciate the efforts as always. :-)

Bill: I stand corrected. :-)

No time for more just now, brain, but I will get back to you.

For the moment this howler will have to do:

That has to be a joke. The kind of soft cottage cheese nationalism - the 'most famous Canadian' variety for example - is neither a threat, nor an inspiration to anyone with a pulse. The reason business wants to get rid of the CBC is, plain and simple, business. They don't like competing with an entity they see as getting its main support from the Government. Transfer its ad revenue to the other networks and CBC would get as much attention in the business pages as the Knowledge Network.

I'll come back with more later. Out earning a living today.

Brain.... we need money as a tool of exchange. We lived in a virtual moneyless society after WW2 for 3 years, when the only valuable currency were cigarettes. It was sheer hell I do not wish on anyone.

But we do not need, or can afford to have artifically "created" money, used as weapons, licensing colonization, enslavement and gross theft from the public as the "right of capital".

The difference is that of between a knife to prepare food with, or carve sculptures, or a sword to kill others and steal their possessions.

Neither do we need any theories legalizing the killings and theft.

Ed Deak.
\\

Chris H:

LOL... too true Chris H!

Lest anyone even think of casting a vote for a Conservative candidate, just conjure up in your mind the image of humans wandering about the countryside with dinosaurs. Too funny, right? Then think Day. Then think former leader of the "not quite clear on science party". Then have a good belly laugh. And then vote for someone else.

gasworks: "Chris H - I won't be voting for Day"

Maybe not. You'll vote for somebody who supports the party that will put him in cabinet though. Congratulations.

Who to vote for... well unfortunately I'm a big believer in strategic voting. I say unfortunate, because I hate voting for the mainstream parties. But I'd vote for a dog to keep the Conservatives from getting a majority. It's true the Liberals aren't vastly better, but while they steal from the till and have the gall to tell us it's good for us, they still place the interests of Canada and Canadians ahead (if only slightly) of abstract ideological free market principles. Yes they kowtow to elite interests. Yes they are far too lenient in their dealings with the US. But the Liberals set policy based on the direction they perceive the majority of public wants them to go. The favors to political friends, Canadian elites and various contributors are then shoehorned into those policies. The policies are not founded simply on serving those interests (Paul Martin, however, was an aberration who was willing to, and did, employ any dirty tactic necessary to fulfill his personal ambition, and that almost destroyed the Liberals).

The same cannot be said of the Conservatives. That current group is composed of and ruled by ideological fundamentalists. It is an ideology that serves the interests of the wealthy and the powerful first. Its effects, wherever it has been applied around the world, has been devastating for the poor, and has eroded the standard of living for the middle class. The wealth lost by those groups has been funneled directly to the world's wealthiest, and they've used financial chicanery to evade paying their fair share of taxes. What's more, like any group of fundamentalists, this neoconservative bunch is willing to use massive military violence to enforce their ideology around the world.

The NDP, on the other hand, has simply been a massive disappointment. Unresponsive to the grassroots, beholden to union interests, and perhaps most importantly over-managed and overridden by their media handlers. They've lost sight of the fact that principles, founded on the real needs of real working class people, are why they came into existence in the first place. Everyone has basic needs for food, shelter, healthcare, education and security. But instead of a comprehensive vision for those things, the NDP presents a patchwork of policies designed to maximize positive media spin. It's the sort of politics that smacks of an effort to play as safe as possible with those $1.75 votes to keep the party establishment employed.

Real change will only come from the bottom up. I certainly advocate for that when I have the time. The current democratic institutional structure in most western societies is not functioning effectively enough in the interests of its citizens. Alternatives need to be explored. But it is up to the general public to work toward making that change, not politicians. And right now most people are just too much a mix of scared, ignorant, selfish and lazy to take the risk of advocating for real change. They'd rather just bitch. My worry is that it will take all hell breaking loose for people to really wake up, and work toward a viable alternative.

No joke, G. I was thinking about their historical archives, by the way, Canadian history that no other Canadian media outlet can match and for such reasons alone, the CBC does have the power to inpire nationalism, no question.

As for advertizing, you have some valid points, but the CBC also takes on overhead costs that no other radio station would touch. Examples I can think of is broadcasting shortwave and low density populations, not to mention French alternatives throughout the rest of Canada. Its a little more complicated than "the CBC should be self supporting and non subidized."

I will second that motion!
We suffer from a few writers who have an ego to sharpen, and think this is the place!
WRONG!
Please take a minute to summarize your thoughts, and quit repeating yourselves!

Ed Deak:
Right on with the phoney money as usual.

James Burns, Chris H, couldn't agree with you more. :-)

Bill - who are you kidding?

You see - it doesn't matter how you define yourself, it's your audience that gets to make that decision. What I mean is, if you asked people that are familiar with your work, most of them would probably identify you as something like "that NDP Pundit Guy".

By the way, why do you think the people at the CBC, the Tyee and other media outlets call you up all the time? I think its probably because they too think of you as "that NDP Pundit Guy".

For example, haven't you ever noticed that every time you show up, on say the CBC, there also seems to be a Conservative Pundit Guy" and a "Liberal Pundit Guy"? Hmm - must be just a coincidence.

Anyone who votes Liberal supports corruption, cuts to social services and healthcare, NAFYA, reduced corporate taxes and increased pollution all while smugly wrapping themselves in the flag and uttering the right platitudes.

I realize the 1990's were a long time ago and Canadians can't be expected to remember them but history books are available in local libraries. They tell a story of how the Left was practically wiped out in an effort to get rid of the Conservatives and the Liberal government then adopted the policies of Preston Manning to shore up its right flank.

So vote Liberal or vote Conservative, its all the same in the end as they have to fight over the same voters. And yes I realize this is rocket science.

I think, James Burns' summary is an excellent one.

As a member of the NDP, not for any ideological, but practical reasons, e.g. managed to get rid of the 2 useless BCLib seatwarmers here, replacing them with a couple of intelligent and hard working MLAs. Now we have a very little, but still a long shot chance, and hope, to wipe out the pathetic Reform fossil we still have federally.

The NDP will most likely lose seats in the next election, and many of us hope that any new management will be an improvement over the present one.

Ed Deak.

Really? Who is the president of 24? Well, it is Bill's olde friend Glenn Clark.

Teleman, try getting a job that is not based in nepotism. At 24 your old friend got your your job. He also helped you at the BC Fed. They bankroll this site and got your column here.

Hack.

Your column yesterday was so bogus and biased I won't even comment on it. No editor should have let it go to press, unless he is an old friend of yours.

Oh, I forgot. He is.

The fact is, Bill, what I wrote about you is true. You are a boot licker and contribute nothing to society.

I've been waiting for someone to say something sensible like this.

Since we're quoting Shakespeare, a pox on both your houses guys. Your entire enterprise of arguing which party constitutes a strategic vote to keep the Tories out, (as though that could be decided on a national basis, without any reference to local ridings), is utterly misconceived.

Make me an argument as to where I should park my vote in Vancouver East, (as though I don't know :-), and I'll pay attention.

Perhaps if Tieleman gets a "real job" working man, you could get a life. Sounds like a good compromise to me.

The brain,

I have just written the Tyee requesting an increase in the maximum words per post. I don't think it's fair to we readers that you should have to interrupt your train of thought because you are forced to continue your 50,000 word essays in new posts.

And please stop offering your journalism services to Bill Tieleman. We don't want to lose you. No one could replace your ability to use advanced writing techniques such as repetition and self-importance.

Now Now Tyee comrades;

Christmas is coming ...Hannukah as well ....ooops the " Holiday Season ".....Serenity Now Serenity Now....

PS Who stole the Festivus pole ?

I read lots of columnists' takes on Dion's win immediately after the convention.
Wow there was lots of skepticism about him!
"He won't sell in Quebec 'cause of his hard federalist line"..."his English is terrible"..."a throwback to Chretien/Martin days", etc.
But a new Decima Poll puts the Libs in the lead, and most encouraging of all for Grits is Libs lead Tories in Quebec by a huge margin - 24% vs. 12%.
The Tories' reported post-convention glee must be turning to fear already!
***************************************
Macleans.ca
Politics
December 13, 2006 - 14:42

Poll suggests Liberals gathering strength in Quebec, Tories flagging

JOHN WARD

OTTAWA (CP) - A new poll suggests that Stephane Dion's victory in the Liberal leadership race has bolstered his party's political support in Quebec at the expense of the Conservatives.

The Decima Research survey, made available exclusively to The Canadian Press, suggested that nationally, the Liberals had the support of 35 per cent of decided and leaning voters. That compared with 32 per cent support for the Tories, 12 per cent for the NDP, 11 per cent for the Bloc Quebecois and seven per cent for the Green party.

In Quebec, though, the poll suggested the Liberals had more than double the support of the Conservatives, a sharp reversal from the election last January.

The new survey showed the Bloc with 45 per cent of voters, the Liberals with 27 per cent and the Tories with 12 per cent. The NDP had six per cent and the Green seven per cent.

"The big question coming out of the Liberal convention was would Stephane Dion work as an idea for the Liberals in the province of Quebec," said Bruce Anderson, Decima's CEO. "So far, I think the evidence is more yes than no. He's been established as a leader in the minds of Quebecers and the Liberal party has a 15-point lead over the Conservatives in that province.

"Obviously they're still behind the BQ, but those are pretty good numbers for the Liberals."

In the last election, the Tories took 36.3 per cent of the vote across the country. The Liberals had 30.2 per cent, the NDP 17.5, the Bloc 10.5 and the Greens 4.5.

Anderson said there's bad news out there for the NDP, because its support is not only down from last January's election, but it seems to be soft.

"I guess the question for the NDP is, if Stephane Dion is positioned as a centre-left, environmentally-preoccupied, social-justice-motivated leader, does that further put pressure on the NDP voter pool?

"So far, I think, the evidence is yes it does. The NDP numbers are soft."

The results suggested that a quarter of people who voted NDP in that election were ready to vote Liberal next time. Anderson said he'll keep watching that trend in future surveys.

"The early indication is the NDP vote is under pressure."

He also said the Green party is showing some signs of pressure as well, although the margin of error makes that difficult to pin down without a longer survey base.

"This looks like the first time that we've seen the Green number maybe be a little bit softer," he said.

He suggested that Dion's credentials on the environment could pose a challenge for the Greens.

"The election of Stephane Dion as Liberal party leader was probably, for the Green party, the worst possible outcome from that leadership convention."

The survey was conducted between Dec. 7 and Dec. 11 as part of Decima's weekly national omnibus poll. It sampled 1,025 people and the results are considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Bloc with 45 per cent

So now that terry and Bill have become the debating team I must ask one question. did you two flip a coin to decide which side of the argument you wished to appear to come from? are the two guys just trying to upset the neoCons on this little , for free newspaper? Oops got to stop that was two questions. I do enjoy reading both of the fellows and can and do make up my own mind on things. Ever wonder why election signs can't be within 300 feet of a polling booth. something to do with the short memory span of lots of voters. Either way steve is on the way out. My God he's even fighting with his fish eries critic. It's steve's way or the highway. Lets get into a discussion on fish.

I wish the Bloc would run a candidate in every riding. They might just get a majority. Either way it would be the first time that English (Speaking) Canada had a real say in the country.

Well, well, if it ain’t old skew my poll up my ass,Bobb999 times liberal knob gobbler.

woody wrote:

Well you know the neocons are getting scared when they switch from angry gloat to sour grapes and trite sexual insults.

FYI, the 'better' modifies 'done'. Much more readable if you said "could have been better done". Or even "done better". But I think the first way is betterest.

What's a scource?

These rather 'elementary' mistakes make a mockery of your comment.

Straw man attacks and obvious bias? Pot meet kettle.

I think Clark is the publisher right? Not the editor. You might want to bone up on the work flow at a newspaper if you think the publisher is approving every column.

the NDP are in big trouble. i know so many "baby boomers' who have always voted NDP but will not this time around and why? for some it is the reasons Brain stated but also for some a feeling of panic about the environment and the need for real leadership. the NDP are not seen as being able to provide real leadership.

you do not have to go to the Middle East to find fundalmentalist extremists-they're here in Canada-they're called the Harper Govt. this was perfect opportunity for the NDP to expose the neo-conservative agenda but nope..not done...and now it is too late. gee if they had done that many Canadians would see that real leadership is about envisioning the future. a future that is not a neo-con. nightmare but one where they set an agenda based in fairness, social justice and action on the environment.
as for myself, i will probably not vote NDP this time around. doesn't really matter here -South Delta- but i'm moving {with the Treaty signing it seems to be a good idea to get out} to a riding where the NDP won by a few votes so losing my vote will matter. i wonder how many others are going to do the same?

Alive:
I second that motion! When I see a post which is long (and ends with (continued) I just keep scrolling.

Maybe TheTyee should have two "Comments" sections: one for people who have the time and huge amounts of information to pass on and one for the rest of us who simply want to drop in for a short read, get up to speed and post a short note.

At least the Brain writes his own comments taken from his thoughts and research, I salute him for using his own initiative, unlike Bobb999 ,who’s goal in life has been to fill thread space with unnecessary pollsters surveys, rather than simply display their address, as most here do when they wish to bring information foreword to the other readers.

Anyone who writes, long or short, should be ready for criticisms, put downs, you name it. A good example is the only MP daily blog of Garth Turner. What he has had to endure in terms of insults is incredible, really...

And most don't bitch because they have to take 3 or 4 seconds to scroll past God awful lengthy posts... I've done it myself, and have never complained. No, they bitch because they don't agree with whats being said. It really is that simple. Don't agree? Muzzle. Agree? Where's the microphone!

These commentaries are here to offer feedback to writers and to debate the views offered by them and other commentators. But to do that, requires information. Facts. Links. We should want or need to know the reasons why those views exist within the minds of the writer themselves. And the moment someone, anyone decides its their right to put a muzzle on it, the simple question, what is the motive, glares at us. They just don't want to read something they don't agree with, or want to stop it from being said.

So while you, Doggone are not asking for outright censorship, you are seconding the motions of those who do... and with them, its for personal reasons... and for what its worth, in the age of voicebox and cut and paste quotes and links, its really not all that bad of an idea of yours! (to have a link site for the essays and lengthy reads) But at times, it would be purely impractical. And nor is it a bad idea for someone like myself to begin my own blog.

I will say this... if a blogger is wordy, opinionated in a constructive way, has an ego healthy enough to take harsh criticisms with his own work, (goes with media territory) is principled enough not to become a propaganda machine, and has a major fire on for the truth and digs for the facts, then they should consider journalism. Enough said.

How does one know when they've become a propaganda machine?

woody, I hear you, but Bobb999 is someone I consider and respect as a friend. I've learned from him. Anyways, I agree that a link with sources and a cut and paste or two sampling to make sure the readers know where he's coming from is all thats required.

What I would like from Bobb999 is his link. I would like to see the Lib/Con numbers in Ontario. That's the real battleground that decides who's going to govern this country. Out east and west, I don't see it changing ALL that much, but Ontario will decide who rules.

You might want to check this, brain:
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1165619409958&call_pageid=970599109774&col=Columnist969907622983

G:
When all they represent is the view of one political/religious party in faultless fashion, (which is pretty much cult like, "our way is the only way, or our way is better than all the rest") and always in a postive way that will not honestly self examine or criticize their own one sided view.

Every party has weaknesses. Propaganda machines don't bring them up, but keep them buried when it comes to their own "endorsements", while attacking the weaknesses of other parties, even creating weaknesses that don't exist, while at the same time entirely ignoring any positives that other parties have going for them. In short, its full blown bias.

Dion and the Liberals are going to get smashed by the Liberals. Some people are somewhat intruigued by Dion, but nobody knows him. This is why he is refreshing.

The Liberals have no platform, and the one they will have will be to the left of where most Canadians sit.

The Tories on the other hand are silently handing out goodies to the middle class suburbanites. Tax breaks, etc. etc.

If the Liberals pull this one off, I'd take Gavin with me on my next junket to Vegas. Actually, I wouldn't want to spend my time with a guy who doesn't like to get drunk, party, gamble and let loose.

Let us know when you sober up and can think clear.

Ed Deak.

This isn't meant to be the cheapshot it's going to sound like, but does anyone actually read 24?

Gasworks:

Really? Can you name any that actually came to fruition, that "walked the walk" so to speak. (The GST reduction doesn't count, because it was more than compensated for by an increase in taxes elsewhere)

Tielman:

With the great respect, so what? Anyone can PASS laws. It's the enforcement that is key. Until this law can be SEEN to be working, it's just another waste of trees. And that about sums up Conservative "progress" to date.

Cappy:

Not only drinking yerself blind, but smokin' something as well........

Canada's Harper Introduces Propaganda Term "Continental Response" To Prepare Our Minds For The North American Union

Sunday, 24. September 2006, 21:16:52

North American Union

Canadian Prime Minister Harper introduced the phrase "continental response" into political and economic dialogue in a Speech to the Economic Club of New York 9-20-2006 where he said: "If a more “prosperous, competitive” and “secure” North America is to be built and the commercial challenges from a rising China and India and an enlarged European Union are to be met, there will have to be a “continental response” in the form of a closer partnership between Canada, the US, and Mexico."

His message and its phrase "continental response" was an excellent execution of propaganda, particularly that of "rationalization".

The success of the elite in installing the North American Union begins with controlling the mind of the people. His speech was one or "rationalizing away" the principle of sovereignty. This is something that the Council on Foreign Relations has long been calling for as seen in the statement of Richard Haass, CFR President, who said "State sovereignty must be altered in a globalized era".

Forwarded by Ed Deak.

RickW:
Yah, the Cons raised income taxes on the dirt poor, and cut spending to social programs. Hell of a way to keep a promise, and when the bill comes in, there could still be red ink from the drop in revenue. Really looking forward to their keeping the next promise to cut another point. Wonder what's going to get cut this time... FN spending is already toast. They've sliced and diced women equality social spending. I guess even further cuts to education and healthcare is whats next. It won't be the military... and all for our own best interests of course. Losers...

I wonder some days if the only hope we have is the revolutionary instincts of our brothers and sisters in Mexico. They alone in this continent seem to have grasped the fact that their freedom and wealth have been stolen from them by a succession of thugs called their government.
They alone seem to have the will to actually fight back. We Canadians just sit here and take it and pretend we're happy.

Have another drink Cappy and pass the soma.

The only question remains, will we be led down the garden path by a Liberal; or a Conservative.

Bullies will keep pushing until someone pushes back..........

OK so who is going to talk the NDP leadership into getting a backbone and organizing a call for a national strike? We can't even convince our own NDP to get out and do something. If the press and the TV won't help them, then why aren't they out there with handbills and flyers? A nation's worth of NDP MLAs and MPs marching around with handbills and flyers would get some attention and some more followers too. I might actually start believing they are willing to do something besides going from free dinner to free dinner, cutting this ribbon or that.

Capitalism: "The Liberals have no platform, and the one they will have will be to the left of where most Canadians sit."

The Conservatives have given them one: the environment. The Liberals can run on that alone and beat the Conservatives in the next election. The Conservatives platform on that issue is so far away from where most Canadians sit that only those living in Alberta can see it.

All the Liberals have to do is keep harping (lol) about the Conservative's hidden agenda. What would they do if they got a majority? End rights for women? Make abortion illegal? It doesn't really matter how true this is. People will be scared enough to not vote Conservative.

It is almost unbelievable that Harper was unable to get a majority elected. The Liberals had done bonifide illegal/criminal activity and this was the result! Why didn't the entire country go Conservative? What happened to the Conservatives after Mulroney, and this is all the happens to the Liberals after criminal wrongdoing? My god! It must be impossible for the Conservative Party of today to win a majority. The Liberals have been making their tent larger while anyone that has difficulties with the religious right's agenda is quietly shown the door.

I for one wish I could vote for the NDP, but I have to be pragmatic. They have no legitimate shot in my riding. I was so happy to see Ted White gone, I would have voted for a radish instead of him. I must park my vote for the Liberals so there aren't any people in cabinet who believe that the earth is younger than 10,000 years old.

Chris.....Don't you know the Lord put the million year old fossils and water polished stones into the deserts "to test our faith"?

Ask Harpie. He'll tell you !

Ed Deak.

I'd be interested in seeing what people's actual predictions for the election are.

Just who places first, no attempt to predict minority/majority or whether it's what one wants or not. Just what one expects to happen.

Interested?

"The election of Stephane Dion as Liberal party leader was probably, for the Green party, the worst possible outcome from that leadership convention."

Depends on whether or not Dion follows through on his promises and how he goes about it. If it's just another smokescreen to get the grits re-elected so they can continue with their arrogant, looting ways, then yeah, it's bad for most Canadians - including Greens. On the other hand, if Dion adopts the Greens' approach of addressing environmental concerns through aggressive but revenue-neutral tax-shifting, that's a victory for Greens, not a loss.

Policies count, not personalities. As long as the Greens and Elizabeth May continue to get enough votes to cause the Liberals and Conservatives to steal their ideas, that's fine. When Elizabeth May and the Greens beat the Conservative candidate, demolished the NDP candidate, and came within striking distance of the Liberal Candidate in the recent London, ON byelection, that made all three other parties sit up and take notice. See http://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts_e.aspx?ed=1382

The Greens' steamrolling of the NDP in London, ON has likely contributed to Buzz Hargrove's proposal to use a form of revenue-neutral tax-shifting to motivate a made-in-Canada cleaner cars solution instead of pushing the usual NDP-type suggestion of overall higher taxes. See
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20061211.COBUZZ11/TPStory/Comment

You bettcha!
Raddish is definitely the best PM. Look at his/her record: No Blemishes! Every Radish is going to (naturally) get a few blotches as she/he rises outa the dirt.
Maybe some "Salmonella" or "E-Colli" contamination. As far as I know most dirt has e-colli and salmonella living in it
Get used to it:
We are not likely to find the "perfect" leader in any above mentioned party.

The practical short term (for me) demands that Harper buggers off to the place he arose from.

I'll take my chances with any party that sets them down

Alcibiades:
I'll bite:
Liberal majority, Neo Con significant minority
But it needs to happen soon

Or all bets are off

Saddly:
So is our future

Alci,
its too early, lots could happen, but going out on a limb :

Libs 168 seats 44%
Cons 92 seats 32%
Bloc 36 seats 10%
NDP 5 seats 8%
Greens 0 seats 5%

But again, it doesn't matter as the Liberals proved in the '90s they were worse than Mulroney.

Okay, here's mine - again not what I want but what I think:
small Conservative majority.
Enough to give pee wee the 4 years in charge he's salivating for.

Okay, well, I won't take a tally just yet - let's say the polls are open till midnight on the 20th. I'll roll on back here then and record the numbers and then we'll compare notes on election night.

Let's say this prediction is good till the end of June. Anybody have a problem with that or would you prefer a re-do say the end of March?

Deal?

Just another small example of how pee wee is following up on his program to win a majority.

This may seem really unimportant to urban dwellers, but I can promise you it will help him win seats all over rural Canada:

Tories to protect rural mail, magazines
Dec. 13, 2006. 06:25 PM
CANADIAN PRESS

OTTAWA — The Conservative government is ordering Canada Post to protect rural mail delivery and maintain a fund that subsidizes postage for Canadian magazines.

Transport Minister Lawrence Cannon announced Wednesday that he has directed the Crown corporation to implement a plan to restore and maintain mail delivery to rural roadside mailboxes within 18 months.

He has also told Canada Post to continue funding the Publications Assistance Program for up to two more years.

"I expect that Canada Post will do its utmost to restore and maintain mail delivery to rural roadside mailboxes while taking into consideration the health and safety of their employees and respecting all applicable laws," Cannon said in a news release.

"I also expect that the corporation will continue to provide funding in support of the Publications Assistance Program while Canadian Heritage determines the best way to support the Canadian publishing industry in the years to come."

More than 50,000 rural homes across Canada have lost direct mail delivery due to the safety concerns of mail carriers.

The risks relate to traffic safety and ergonomics as letter carriers are forced to reach and lean to deposit mail into rural boxes.

Canada Post is conducting a safety review of about 800,000 rural mail boxes and critics worry many more Canadians will lose service when it's complete.

Cannon said the government recognizes Canada Post has already implemented measures to improve safety — such as vehicles with flashing lights and reflective signage — and to ensure continued mail service to customers.

He said the government also recognizes the importance of the Canadian publishing industry and will take steps to determine the best way to support the publishing industry in the longer term.

Sharing is good:

I think we have to look to ourselves, and not to our "leaders". They have proven (in the main) to simply be "replacement" bullies.
Viva la revolución?

Always cater to small special interest groups - those people will remember you and put their x in the proper box.

Sadly, the guy is a genius at manipulating peoples' feelings.

Just look at the list of folks he's looked after since January:
1. Veterans;
2. Members of the Armed Services;
3. Families of Armed Services;
4. Lebanese Canadians;
5. Jewish Canadians;
6. Chinese Canadians;
7. Rural Canadians;
8. The publishing industry;
9. Starting to work on First Nations - you're seeing it right now;
10. Christian Fundamentalists;
11. Stay at home moms.

I'm sure there are some I've missed.

that's cute. a lefty accusing the conservatives of catering to special interest groups. that's exactly what kept the libs in power since trudeau the disaster's time in power. chretien was a master at it, and martin was just too clumsy to pull it off. the ndp would be nothing w/o the poor victim 'minorities', and the green party is one big special interest group. very rich g.

Accusing!

Pardon me Elliot but what are you talking about? I'm describing the reality of the last 10 1/2 months. Exactly as I predicted it would happen last January.

You're not even funny.

Libs 37% 143 seats
Cons 30% 96 seats
Bloc 11% 50 seats
NDP 12% 16 seats
Green 6% 1 seat
Ind 1% 2 seats
Other 1%

Everything is so regional in this country... I see the Cons sweeping in Alta again (28 seats up for grabs), Losing a few seats in BC (36 seats) and maybe a seat each in Sask (14) and Manitoba(14 seats). The Cons are pretty much toast in Quebec. They will be lucky to win a seat there this time. I don't see much change in Atlantic Canada and the North, either. The majority of these seats went Liberal last time out of 35 seats. (NB, 10 seats, Newf, 7 seats, NS, 11 seats, PEI, 4 seats, the north, 3 seats). A couple of seats will likely go Liberal from the Cons there. This link will help the regional breakdowns.

http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes/

The big battleground where voters shift to Lib/Con the most is in Ontario where 106 seats are up for grabs out of 308. Quebec is also a battleground with 75 seats. The Bloc will take between 45 - 50 seats, so I split the difference, gave them 48, one independent should get relected there (King Arthur), and that leaves 26 seats up for grabs for the Libs and Cons of which I would be surprised if the Cons won more than 3 seats. Even bribes won't help the Cons at this point.

So it comes down to Ontario, of which the NDP will be lucky to keep Jack Layton's riding and the previous split between the Libs/Cons last time will, if the polls don't change (and I don't expect that they will with Dion there now), will get high 40%'s in terms of popular vote and leave's a 2 to 1 split or better between 106 seats for the Libs over the Cons.

So there you have it. The Libs gain 6 seats out west out of 92 seats total, gain 13 seats in Quebec from the previous 10 they already hold, hold firm in Atlantic Canada and the North, and steal 19 seats from the Cons and 2 seats from the NDP in Ontario by my calculations, moving from 102 incumbant seats to 143 seats elected for a strong minority government.

Let it be said that people do vote traditionally... except for Ontario. In Ontario, they go back and forth between Lib/Con like no other province. For the Libs to form a majority, they would need to have 55%+ of the popular vote. Not going to happen, but they should hit the high 40%'s in pop vote. Unless something unforseeable happens, like another old Lib scandal, a Dion collapse, or maybe another 30 or 40 dead soldiers over the winter, all the walk and talk is unlikely to change these numbers.

What does all this mean for the NDP? A dramatic shift in power in two senses. They will shrink by nearly half, but they will HOLD THE ALL IMPORTANT BALANCE OF POWER which I think is bad, good, and appropriate for the NDP. Its the medicine wakeup call they need for the future to come. :-)

Elliot - where's your prediction dude?

Cycling Computer makes a point with a link that's worth putting up twice! Always liked Buzz Hargrove.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20061211.COBUZZ11/TPStory/Comment

Thanks Brain for your looooong posts. Gets me thinking a tad wider, a tad deeper. Quite capable of doing my own thinking but need my focus sharpened on occasion as do we all. Keep it rolling!

RE: Prediction;

Seems that Harper may possibly be engaged in an interesting strategy:

He may be pissing off some of his hard core support who will never Vote LIEberal yet still vote for him .... or who MAY instead park their votes and not vote in the next election.....OR Harper may in fact take votes from the Federal Liberals and NDP parties.

There may be a lot of pissed off LIEberals and NDPers who still exist based on past and current practice of their own given parties . Issues like Treaty negotiations etc. may piss off their own traditional support yet concurrently "poach" votes from the other parties.

Taking votes from the LIEBerals and the NDP may be better , strategically and politcally speaking, than simply rallying his own supporters, traditional or otherwise.

Laughable and what for? No major political party is going to support an illegal act. It would mean their demise.

Striking is illegal?
Now this is what should be happening here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/russia/article/0%2C%2C1970064%2C00.html

G, I like that rural mail delivery and help for Cdn mags thing that Harper is putting in.

Your list is aimed at the Tory base but I don't see anything wrong with that. They're in power and those are the people that put them there. Seems fine to me.

When the Tories won the last election everyone was saying the sky is going to fall. And I said, no it isn't. Its just a minority, they'll pay back their base somewhat but tread carefully to stay in power. That's all they've done.

I had expected some bad moments and not a single positive. Although I've disagreed with several of their policies, especially the childcare one and the rise in taxes on the poorest workers, I've been pleasantly surprised by some others, especially the income trusts one and the accountability act. I'm all for Senate reform too.

So far, for me, the Harper gov't beats the Martin one hands down (or the Campbell one for that matter). And as brain says, I'm a biased, ideologically driven, far-left NDPer.

Still, if Dion can maintain his post-convention bounce its all over for the Tories and NDP. Which is too bad.

Yeh Frank, I'd actually expected worse. Interesting reaction from little elliot - I think he's got some tranferrence issues going on as well as some anger problems.

I especially 'like' the attitude some Liberal supporters cling to that says Paul Martin wasn't responsible for his own demise.

Like Liberals everywhere, it's always someone else's fault. But when the Tories screw up - a al Joe Clark - well, "they're" idiots.

Re LIEberals, Dion, and the environment.

What a joke.
We are going full circle.

When all else fails go back to the 60's and the same touchy feely issues. (Gee didn't that era also get us P Herr Trudeau ? )

If the LIEberals do get in, watch for either some useless legislated lip service, or worse, something on par with Bill C -68 , a waste of money that will enact some potentially draconian measures.

Gavin - it really isn't about Harper trying to buy votes. The Conservative party is about the common man - they always have been. The 9-5 two kid suburban and rural family.

They believe the best way to support the middle class is to provide a good economy, with lots of professional jobs - and better yet, a mechanism to create your own wealth. This is why they support capital gains cuts, etc. You know Gavin, I have a good retirement savings plan right now. It is not because I've max'd out every year. I've always had additional tax liability. Whatever that payment would be, I've merely contributed it to the RRSP. Better I put it away for myself than give it to the government....

Most people in Canada actually *get this* take care of themselves.

Harper isn't designing massive social programs and policies. Rather, he is giving back in incriments. The best part is that once you device some great social program - you can't get rid of it. There are lay-offs, public opinion...

You can always re-tack Harper's little tweaks. This isn't a government that has ever tried to buy votes. The Afghan mission and the Income Trust issue are two very fine examples of this. I agree that the SSM was a bit of politics. Nobody in the Conservative caucus really wanted to re-open it. Yet, they had to secure their base for a generation. The majority of them voted in favour of the bill - yet a few high profile cabinet ministers voted against it. Classic politics.

They have their vision for Canada - a self sustaining, economic power - with few taxes and good social conscious. They are merely moving in that direction.

Chris:

I don't believe the environment is enough to win a majority - or prevent one. It is one card (albeit a big one). People tend to talk big about the environment, yet vote the other way.

Harper has been hit by the Income Trust issue, and a honeymoon period with Dion. Harper has a decent approval rating at around 40%.

The Afghanistan mission has been out of the news recently, but the Liberals are going to have to choose a side. How would it look if they opposed it? Roughly 50% of Canadians support it. Plus, people haven't even considered how it would reflect on us, if we cut and run.

The whole world is there, and the mission has been somewhat successful. Afghans (unlike Iraqis) want to rebuild their country. The Taliban has been flushed into Pakistan. They are slowly starting to turn the corner and move into the rebuilding phase.

The oil sands is a big issue where the Liberals will talk tough. People East of Manitoba hate Alberta, and they despise these greedly oil companies in the oil sands.

Nobody can do anything about it. If you implement another NEP - it would destroy national unity.

How delusional can you get?
The family you describe owes everything to the bank and creditcard companies!
2 paycheques away from bankruptcy, but still thinking that they own the world!
If those families had any sense they would rail against the profits made by said institutions, and realize that the conservatives are the party that supports such schemes!

Cappy:

Those are your words, remember, not mine. I think you need to read what I said again.

I stated that Harper had carefully targeted special interest groups for his policy initiatives; a tactic he learned, no doubt, from watching other successful political dynasties. You suggested it wasn't about 'buying' votes. I think the fact someone of your ilk makes such a statement is very interesting- from a psychological and motivational point of view. I think it says a lot about you and how you view the ways of the world and the best way to get ahead. As to indicating a fundamental understanding of what real community and progress would be about, not so much.

And that’s too bad. It’s too bad because our current system gives people like you with more money than good moral sense and community values far too much power.

What's your prediction?

YOu too maestro, what's yours?

Everyone?

Just winners - no seats and percentages necessary right now. I just want to see your ideas.

Mine?

Small workable Conservative majority.

Canadian people are far too fair and they're gonna give pee wee a chance to really screw up before they throw him out.

Hope I'm wrong!

brain:
I enjoyed reading your seat-projection analysis. Yes, the Libs look like they have momentum now (except in AB), and Harper's Cons are likely on the way out (The honeymoon is over, yippeeiokayay!).I agree, the trend for the NDP is likely to continue down. Your speculation that they might manage to obtain a balance of power position with fewer seats...that's about the only hope they have now!

I see that Chantal Hebert column G West linked to (thanks GW)is pessimistic about the NDP's seat fortunes with a Dion led Lib party.(Chantal's a perceptive commentator on Cdn. issues. She's won lots of newspaper awards - for good reason).

Personally, I believe the Libs can grow their momentum, giving them a shot a majority next time around.

Re. that Decima poll I posted from Macleans.ca, I went to look for a link
http://www.macleans.ca/topstories/politics/news/shownews.jsp?content=n121391A
...But I notice today, the article has been rewritten (re-assembled), with a changed headline, since it's first appearance yesterday afternoon!

I find it most interesting now to compare the two versions: v1 emphasizes the fact that Dion Libs now lead the Cons in Quebec by a significant margin, that's the headline and the leading paragraphs.
The NDP-impact material is added at the end.
-But today's v2 reverses the emphasis to
the negative implications for the NDP being the lead item, with the headline "Poll Suggests Dion Helping Liberals to Regain NDP support", and the paragraphs are now reversed with the NDP-implications leading, and the Quebec Lib/Con stuff appended at the end!

Why? Well,this suggests to me Macleans editors (who are unashamedly anti-NDP) got hold of the story, and forced a change, to make it more in line with one of their pet agendas: NDP bashing.

The most blatant example of Macleans anti-NDP agenda was their issue out during the last election, with Svend Robinson on the front cover.

That Macleans issue was a 3 pronged onslaught on Robinson - and, by extension, the NDP:
The Svend cover photo, with a negative headline; the lead editorial (a diatribe against Svend); and the mags feature article, a multi page hatchet job on Robinson.
And this was in the middle of an election campaign! For Macleans to demonstrate such an aggressive, undisguised agenda to attempt to influence the Cdn public against the NDP, during an election, I found appalling! It's one thing to write an editorial, that's fine. It's another to devote much of an entire mag issue to such an attack.

...May Macleans and the National Post both keep bleeding red ink till they deservedly expire.

G West;

This is an interesting discussion, all views from other TYEE political spectrum in this discussion.

Got to engage in some Capitalist Xmas shopping to help support social programs.....

Short answer is the playing field is changing too quickly...agree with the targetting comment...something core will ultimately distill down,answer more in depth later

Guys,
You actually have to MAKE a predicition. See up thread for the rules, such as they are. Deadline is December 20 - see upthread 13 hours for other details. No seat numbers, percentages, necessary.

Just who'll win, majority or minority.

Quit trying to be difficult maestro - get in or not - s'up to you.

Be nice if I could spell - 'prediction' -sorry!

Svend ran my riding and got whalloped. He didn't have the guts to run in his old riding. Of course, as long as there is a microphone of camera of any sorts in the world, we won't see the end of Svend.

Where's your prediction working man?

Lord G West:

Life is a journey not a race...
The 20th of Dec. is still days away.

The current political playing field is showing Harper is out- Liberalling the LIEberals.
The LIEBerals , in my view, are being associated with the NDP , via gravity or magnetism or both, (and the NDP are themselves withering away)...so do the math and the chemistry to predict THAT result .

Harper is positioning himself as BOTH a default candidate(ie taking in LIEberal and NDP protest votes) and also presenting himself as a true " blue " choice...the flatlining LIEberals simply can't see the noose closing and tightening. Chretien and the LIEberals only got in because some were overtly critiquing his Popeye impressions.

BTW: Just because 99 % of THE TYEE posters are programmed to J-U-M-P when you tell them to doesn't mean it's my duty to as well, comrade G 'ster...as you would probably also take my prediction and bet the farm accordingly.

PS Watch the spellink errorz or Mein "STUMP'f" wyll givfe yuuz a dee-ten-shun.

Working Man...
I CANNOT for the lie'f ov mee see why he,.....ol' Sven'wannie, got waallupped. Go figure. Can he swing a hammer ???...(sans the sickle, of course). Ban microphones as a solution ,and find a way to tie the ban to Kyoto , see ...simple... and N/C.

G, I think we can put comrade maestro down as undecided but wishfully hoping for a Tory majority.

Liked your input, Bobb999:

Sometimes, when a person walks away from their views and re-examines them, nothing changes. I don't feel the pop vote or the seat projections of mine will change, but I most definitely have changed my views concerning where the Liberal boost in seats out west and possibly Atlantic Canada will come from and that is the NDP. I believe the Con support outwest will hold firm, maybe going down a max of 6 seats out west, but more likely just a couple.

As you say with Macleans, its spot on.
The interesting/uninteresting thing about Macleans is that they've always been for Bay Street. U.S. multinationals and Republican interests (the Democrats simply don't interfer with foreign politics the way the Republicans do) are marginally there, but with Macleans, its Bay St. all the way. If Bay Street wants to sell out the U.S., get in the Cons. If Baystreet wants to compete (or sellout later than sooner) with the U.S., get in the Liberals. Or maybe they just do the bidding of the highest bribe, which is likely the case with Canwest, as well as Israels own Imperial ambitions for the U.S.. But one thing is for sure as you most aptly state. Macleans sure doesn't care about the poor and middle class voter.

And the Svend Robinson thing... I must confess that I stopped being a fan when I heard he got picked up for shoplifting 3 years ago. Something like that is what ends careers in public life.

There could be a surprise as well in the Independent side of things. In the Churchill riding in Manitoba which was won in 2004 by NDP's Bev Desjarlais, who was thrown out of the NDP caucus after voting against the same-sex marriage bill and lost in a close one in this years election... she could come back to win assuming she runs.

All in all, I believe the vaste majority of voters have already made up their minds. The only question will be Dions familiarity or lack thereof with voters and its my opinion that the more people probe, the more they will like about him. But those who seriously look at his record in terms of how he voted and what he's done in cabinet positions will find some room to criticize. The big question is, is 17 months enough to make serious changes with the Liberal stance on th environment? Some say yea, others say nay. With Dion it really comes down to 14 effective months that were lived under the threat of a toppled government at any time. But the facts remain... he did nothing for Kyoto during this time. Was it Martins intention? It could be so.

So really, Dions stance on the environment remains unknown... except for the fact that he's talked about major changes and he became the PM of this nation by an social/environmental activist, Gerard Kennedy, which I believe could cherry pick at this point whatever cabinet position he likes, including the minister of environment.

And I most definitely agree with your wishes for Macleans and the National Post (et.el. Can West). May there be a pox on both of their houses! (always wanted to say that line :-)

Frank ol' comrade;

Some like to jump in head first...others would rather plumb the depths...and see this as continually evolving.

Polls are too much in Yo- Yo mode.

Suffice it to say...the Tories may have picked up a few tricks from the LIEberal masters , and the Tories are in no hurry, are they ? Harper , going by past Federal Gov't history, has probably another 2 years via protocol. The NDP see the Tories as their life support...an election now could seriously reduce their numbers .

Harper will reach a point where he may begin to table items he says are on the top of the Tory " hell or high water " list while he has the power to do so.

How you can extrapolate I am " wishfully hoping for a Tory majority" is interesting and bizarre...My points are more on the "ol' Canadian fallback and Vote for the Natural Governing party " may not be such a natural thing to do anymore. Seems many of these TYEE posts are stuck in that same old aforementioned fallback position, as well as the "NDP as toast? why?" mode as well .

Dion may be ripe for a plucking with a quick election now, or ripe for the plucking with an election later.

To be blunt , the only real anti -Harper and anti - Campbell ranters I hear/read are on THE TYEE.

Hmmm.

No prediction yet maestro - saving it for marriage eh?

OK G'ster..PREDICTION:

....the Rhinos resurrect and hold the scale tipping -swing vote in a dead heat between all the "relevant" parties.

HO wHOre wHOre, Merry Festivus to all the LIEberals, Seasons Greedtings

That's not a prediction and it's not funny either.
I'll put you down as NIL

Prediction:
Neo-cons 50 seats nation wide .
Liberals 170.
Bloc 55
Greens 6
NDP the rest .
Probably wishful thinking but then I'm nothing if not an optimist .

High Brain :
Excellent article . I wish you would publish it over on Turners site to show the nit wits what rational thought is .

Futile exercise trying to define why Dion didn't do much while environment minister. How much autonomy does a Minister have? Some? Little? None? I think the latter. Any decision with content has been worked over by cabinet before release and is a decision of the whole. In Harper's situation it's different again: any cabinet decision is worked over before release by God Himself and carries the sacred imprint.

aorangi:Agreed.

Thanks, hannibal. Yah, Turners website has some out to lunch knuckle draggers there. Its absurd sometimes. When Garth was a Con, there were half a dozen propaganda machines (of which some could barely spell) that defended Con views to the extreme. And when they booted Garth, these same progaganda machines attacked Garth in the exact same way. Hypocrites. And its all a matter of record.

One last thought on what the NDP could seriously do to be heads and shoulders above the rest... but I doubt that they will, even with an expected sound election day thrashing.

The NDP needs to allow their MP's to vote freely. What this would do with the NDP is firstly remove that ugly stain in Parliment that all parties vote with a block vote, with MP's whipped against their will to follow their constituents will, a direct violation of democracy.

And sure, the voter votes for parties as well as MP's... but for a party to ignore the will of its MP constituents in each riding is my opinion, a violation against democracy. The NDP could shine off this ugly stain within their own party and take their chance in allowing MP's to sink and swim on their own merits. What would this do? Bring media exposure on how each MP does vote. It would highlight each NDP MP's personality far more than it does, get more media exposure, and above all, give the NDP party a clear democratic alternative over the rest who are obvious control freaks, with Harper as the most extreme example of all.

Aren't people tired of this? Don't we want MP's to have the freedoms that their elecorates have demanding for decades? Don't we want to know who, instead of just what we've elected? And finally, don't we want our MP's to have a little more fun, and allow them stand on their own two feet instead of force them to be nothing more than a bunch of Yes men and women who get kicked out if they buck the trend even once?

I would love to see this happen, instead of what these parties did with people like the Bev Desjarlais and the Garth Turners of the world.

Being too left to ever be on the winning side, I'm not as optimistic as hannibal, but always willing to bet:
Dion 139
Harper 130
Layton 37
May 2

Sorry about that, it'll be close. Depends too, on the timing which could change it.

The brain:

Yah, Turner's website has some out to lunch knuckle draggers there. It's absurd sometimes. When Garth was a Con, there were half a dozen propaganda machines (of which some could barely spell)...and it's all a matter of record.

The NDP needs to allow their MPs to vote freely. What this would do with the NDP is first remove that ugly stain in Parliment that all parties vote with a block vote, with MPs whipped against...

And sure, the voter votes for parties as well as MPs... The NDP could shine off this ugly stain within their own party and take their chance in allowing MPs to sink and swim on their own merits.

Don't we want MPs to have the freedoms that their elecorates have demanding for decades?...And finally, don't we want our MPs to have a little more fun...

How could you tell?

It is going to be an interesting election.

If Dion plays the environment card we may even get the Mulroney moment "You had a choice, sir." as Harper gleefully points out the total failure of the Liberals to do anything effective to meet Kyoto targets.

In Quebec Dion and Duceppe will bang away at each other and Harper will point to his willingness to cede a lot of power to the provinces. A lot of power.

Ontario could see a three way fight between Libs, NDPers and Greens for the soft left vote. (I can hardly wait for the CAW/NDP to trot out the need to do anything but reduce the production of gas guzzling cars to meet Kyoto.) And imagine the entertainment value of watching Dion explain how he was in Cabinet when Canada committed to Afghanistan but wants withdrawal or - more amusing still - a more European, non-combatant role for Canadian troops there.

Harper is going to drop taxes. Not a lot but enough that many Canadians will see a real increase in take home. He's managed to lose the silly SSM vote, feed the base by killing off (the largely unmissed) SOW, spread a little love with beer and popcorn money and promise some relatively sensible constitutional reforms (without actually re-opening the constitution).

Elizabeth May is the wildcard here. She did an excellent job in the by-election. If the climate hysterics really are to be a factor in this election then there is no reason why they will not vote Green. A few good candidates in BC and there could be several wins at the expense of the Liberals and the NDP.

More importantly, the words "Prime Minister Harper" no longer scares the pants of any but the most committed lefty.

Lefty vote split, Green surge: the absence of fear....

Cons 155 seats 38%
Libs 100 seats 35%
Bloc 36 seats 11%
NDP 5 seats 8%
Greens 5 seats 8%

Any result which has the NDP below 10% and 10 seats nationally is the end of Smilin' Jack and the start of the next leadership race. If the NDP opts for a hard left leader then there is every chance that the party will be finished nationally eclipsed by the Greens.

(Of course, last election I thought the CPC would win 50 seats so my record is a bit less than perfect.)

Nope this is the election where the CPC gets only 50,seats .
They have marginalized and pissed off every sector of the nation .
There may not be much fall out from the 'Income Trusts' debacle at the moment but the elderly and retired tend to vote en masse and they are hiding in the bush waiting to pounce and destroy Herr Harpo once and for all .
I laugh at the notion of a majority for the CPC.
How long have you been a Canadian ?
Obviously not long enough .
The Liberals are thee natural governing party of Canada. Make no mistake .
155,seats is ludicrous .

Well G 'ster...

You asked and I answered.

QUESTION: Who dost sittest at thine right hand ?

When the envelope is opened - after polls close on the 20th - you'll be down as a Nil.
Fine with me.

Clear cut:
Well, clearly, my issue has to do with the usage of grammar, not spelling. :-) (but please, don't dig to hard, you'll find hurried spelling mistakes there too!)

S & G Police

Re the NDP MP's and them being given a Free Vote?

Interesting point, but my view is the NDP , in contrast to perhaps any other political party,...works best by its elected members following the party line.

To allow them to "Free Vote"
would actually end up being very amusing and may ratchet forward their expiry date /demise. (hmm ....maybe I shouldn't be saying this as "forewarned = fore...." ) Why do I envision a picture of dogs playing poker on soapboxes while foaming at the mouth?

Greens: they just suck votes from the NDP , by and large...the NDP has competition "oh the irony", and the Greens may have a real fluke and elect one member, maybe in some flaky area of BC.

The details on how the parties and MPs voted for Bill 263 has been extracted out of Hansard at the following website:

http://www.howdtheyvote.ca/vote.php?id=75

A very interesting site, rotlin. Anyone who wants to know Stephane Dions voting record. (it actually doesn't look all that bad from what I've skimmed through)

http://www.howdtheyvote.ca/member.php?id=89

brain,
DId you hear of the national poll released today?
36/34/13 I think I heard - with a 4% margin of error.

The Dion bounce didn't last too long eh?

The Liberals are only down 2 points. That is within the margin of error in these polls, so it's impossible to draw any conclusions about the "Dion bounce".

Just meant that the first polls after Dion's elevation to the throne of the Liberal party had them a few points ahead of the Cons.

Therefore the Dion bounce didn't last long - Harper and his conmen appear to be recovering.

Nah,Alci.
That was a stupid Ipsos-Reid poll Can West Goebbels very own polling firm .
The Liberal's are still up 6,points on average in all other polls .
The neo-Nazi's are deader than dead in the next election unless they buy Quebec outright with a massive transfer payment scheme .
Not to worry the Liberals have been going up steadily month after month while the reverse is true of the Nazis .

I'll take your word for it - I heard it being discussed on CBC on, I think, Sunday morning.

SUre hope you're right.

Well ,Alci all the polls from September on have the Liberals gaining and the neo's losing ground at a rapid pace .
They got zero bounce in the polls from their declaration of Quebec nation hood .
This was designed entirely to reverse the neo's fortunes in Quebec where they imagine their majority lies .
Now that laughting Jack is screwing around with the 'clean air act' all I hope for is that Dion beats him to the punch and anounces his program soon .
Layton is gripless .

hannibal
I'm not trying to rain on your parade. I'm just reporting what I see and hear. Harper is getting all kinds of notice (and quite a bit of kudos) from the press. Even, and especially on Afghanistan, from the CBC - I think the fix is in at the mother corp.
Just watch the news a few times when they're trucking around to Petawawa or Trenton or some other base.

Those little family dramas are being played to the hilt and Hillier might as well be wearing a Conservative button when he starts his stupid cheerleading.

I thought the Dion lead would hold up longer than it has and I am deeply troubled by the guys Dion has as friends here in BC. I think they are as bad as crooks and I don't trust them. If Dion were to dump Marissen and Clark I'd feel a lot better about him. Not that I'd ever vote Liberal unless there were a formal coalition agreement with the NDP to make the kinds of real changes this country needs.

Even if Dion does manage to scrape out a win, with the friends he has and the same old connections to compromised ethnic minorities who only care about their own selfish issues I can't see that we're not going to be in deep trouble.

I hope I'm wrong, truly.

But, as I pointed out at the end of January - everything is happening exactly as I'd predicted.

Harper's announcement of the Mirabel farm repatriation was the start of what I expect will be a week of announcements to placate La Belle Provence .

Re Stategic voting:
Does anyone remember Ralph Nader. It must have felt good to vote for him. But the pain of George W. Bush for 8 years certainly has outweighed that. Sometimes unfortunately you have to vote against the greater evil and forgo the less virtue.

Smoke and mirrors Alci .
Sound and fury amounting to nothing .
Harpo has blown his support in Quebec .
The polls still say that more Canadians are opposed to the Afghan mission than support it .
I cannot see the CBC ever supporting Harpo.
On the news last night thet were interviewing Quebecers about their feelings for Harpo.
"Ese an Idiot" said one guy.
ZZVirtually all the pople they asked were against Harpo .
No he will receive a dead cat bounce .
His Quebec nation hood plot got him a zero bump in the polls .
Dions unlike Harpos support is real and measurable .
Don't despair .
I read 10, newspapers a day and watch 4,news channels.
That is not the impression I am getting .

hannibal,
I've been watching pretty closely too. I just have an uneasy feeling - which was why I was upset when Harper got in in the first place.

I see too many parallels with 1956 - 58 for my liking. If you have any influence with the Liberals dude I'd suggest they don't rush into anything. Things are far too fluid right now and Harper gets to pick up his cards last in this game. I'd be a lot happier if Dion cut some of the connections he has to BC Liberals and cut them fast.

Did you read the commentary in the G&M from after the convention?
I don't have the link but here's the first para (Skookum1 transcribed it for me from the paper in his gym bag)

Special interest groups at convention.
Rev. Francis Xavier is the father figure of Toronto's Tamil community. His question to Bob Rae at a meeting with Canadian Tamils a few days before the Liberal Party Convention was typical of the role played by the leaders of some minority racial and religious groups in blatant efforts to wield political muscle.

It's a sordid story and Dion needs to deal with it.

Anyway, let's keep in touch - I am worried though.

Here is a link about Harpos much touted'accountability act' and how he shatterd over 14,of its rules on the first day of Parliament .
It is,very,interesting .
http://www.dwatch.ca/camp/RelsDec1206.html
And this amongst all the other shyte the man has shovelled is why he will be reduced to 50 or 60 seats .
Cheers !
Income trusts may have faded from the news cycle but to millions of elderly Canadians it is top of mind .
The grey power groups in our nation have enormous influence through their associations and clubs. And they felt it the worst .

Long Live Stephen Harper!

we need an elected senate.

we need to dismantle the cbc.

we need decentralisation.

we need a strong military.

we need the federal government involved in provincial jurisdictions only in absolutely critical areas.

we need to stop the canadian culture of dependency where we feel the government 'owes us' a livelihood. nope, sorry. you gotta build a life yourself.

equality of opportunity, not equality of outcomes.

It is interesting for people such as myself who have been following both the post-materialist "New Political Movements" and the Giddens- Blair- Schroeder-Royal "Third Way" social democracy. These programs don't map well onto the Canadian party system at all. And, from my perspective, Bob Rae was the only person I could trust with a majority government.

Quite simply, the problem in the NDP is on the left (hidebound unionists and anti-globalization activists who suspect that debt crises and a global economy are just conservative ideology) and the problem in the Liberals is on the right (the strong pull of the business and governmental establishments). This would be true regardless of who the Liberal leader is or who the NDP leader is.

All I can suggest to voters is: Vote strategically, riding by riding, according to the values and winnability of your local candidates, and hope for a minority Liberal government in which NDP + Greens can hold the balance of power.

This is a recipe for failure and a Harper majority. Without an organization and a workable plan communicated to supportive voters this is dreaming in technicolour.

Far better for people to stick with their normal preferences and forget trying to game the system.

It just won't work.

Prediction polls are now closed.

Here are the results:

doggone - Liberal majority;

Frank -
Libs 168 seats 44%
Cons 92 seats 32%
Bloc 36 seats 10%
NDP 5 seats 8%
Greens 0 seats 5%

Alcibiades
Small Conservative majority

The brain
Libs 37% 143 seats
Cons 30% 96 seats
Bloc 11% 50 seats
NDP 12% 16 seats
Green 6% 1 seat
Ind 1% 2 seats
Other 1%

Bobb999
Libs a shot at a majority

hannibal
Liberals 170.
Neo-cons 50 seats
Bloc 55
Greens 6
NDP the rest

aorangi
Dion 139
Harper 130
Layton 37
May 2

JAY Currie
Cons 155 seats 38%
Libs 100 seats 35%
Bloc 36 seats 11%
NDP 5 seats 8%
Greens 5 seats 8%

G West
Conservative majority.

Consensus:

Liberal win: 6

Conservative win: 3
hope I haven't missed anyone

High G :
Interesting break down of the informal poll.
Nice to know I am not alone in my prediction of a majority Liberal win which will be the inevitable out some of this election .
I think people have totally underestimated the fury and hatred aimed at the neo-Nazis at this time .
It will go down as a failed social experiment .
Dion is surrounding himself with great intelligence and people who can win under anyy circumstances .
The'income trust' folly may have faded from the news cycle but it is still the number one issue with thousands of elderly Canadians who have an enormous lobby .
Nope, thye goofs are headed backto the opposition benches for perpetuity .
Mark my words .
I'll even put money on a Liberal majority .

This is one of those cases where I will be among the happiest losers imaginable if you're right hannibal - as you no doubt know.

...and yet we'll never go away. we'll scratch and claw just like quebec until we bring this country to heel.

down with a strong central government!

elected senate!

power to the provinces!

p.s....it'll be a conservative majority. once we co-opt quebec, it's game over.

Yes, I know that G .
Harpo has lost all his Quebec support and it is not coming back . Ever .
Tampering with the Senate is so far down on the Canadians radar as to be non-existent .
Far more important issues to deal with like Afghanistan and the ' New Green Economy '
that will prove to be interesting .
I am,really,looking forward to Dion articulating his platform which both Bob Rae and Gerard Kennedy are having a major impact on as they are the architects .
It will be nice to have a government thats whole rasion de etre is not division and hatred .
I am,as you know, a proud Canadian who despises this group of incompetent children .
Did you catch Herr Harpos latest moaning about how he soesn't care if they bring his government(?) down over Afghanistan.
How immature. How petulant .
This fool needs to grow up .
Cheers! G .
All the best for Christmas and a Happy New Year

But hannibal, aren't you bothered by the way Dion has accepted the presence of ethnic extremists - with very divisive priorities - into his tent? They came from the Kennedy camp primarily and of course, there are the BCLiberals with their connection to the Basi Boys too. Some of them deserted Rae as well – the ones based in Ontario.

I just wish I had some confidence in the idea of Liberal ideals in the DION camp.

I can't escape the uncomfortable feeling that there's still something dirty about his victory. If you take out the groups (Tamils, immoderate Muslims and extremist East Indians) who joined Dion and the others after both Ignatieff and Rae rejected the terms of their support, I think there is a problem within the party that I, for one, just can't ignore.

You can be sure that this is going to be used - Rove-like - by Harper to curry favour with white Canadian voters who already fear being overwhelmed by foreign immigrants.

Cheers to you, and Have a great holiday.

I'll try to keep my fingers crossed.

Acadian - the sooner we get rid of provinces entirely - the better. Great Britain has managed without them forever.

it's a good idea, but there would be a civil war before that happened.

Hanny,

you know have no idea how being called a 'nation' feels to quebecers. they love it. the farmers who lad their landed expropriated by trudeau (mirabel) will not forget the bone Harpy just threw 'em. Cons losing support in quebec? Nope. Harper will give them everything they want except separation. Why? Because alta wants the same: devolution of power to the provinces.

canadians will accept senate reform so long as the constitution isn't opened. Don't underestimate Harpy. He may be a prick but he's a smart prick.

oh yeah. Britain isn't 'Great'. It's just Britain: an island the size of wisconsin in the north atlantic.

no offense.

peace out.

It isn't very United either. Scotland may well separate - just as Quebec will if Harper is re-elected.

fearmongering again. quebec wants sovereignty within a federation, with a common currency, kinda like europe. So do I and many british columbians. (and albertans) this is exciting -why fear it?

Who said I did?

As usual, you're a couple hours late and fifty pounds light.

good comeback.

This is a recipe for failure and a Harper majority. Without an organization and a workable plan communicated to supportive voters this is dreaming in technicolour.

Far better for people to stick with their normal preferences and forget trying to game the system.

It just won't work.

SO wavering or erstwhile NDP and Green voters should resist voting for Liberals who can beat Conservatives--otherwise Harper will win a majority? I agree that "gaming the system" could backfire in the sense that it could deliver the Liberals a majority, which would not be as progressive in its policy implications and would count as an unintended result. But I don't think that it would be more likely to produce a Conservative majority. My advice, and I thought this whole debate, is aimed at the "undecided voter". I am not recommending that lifelong NDP members in winnable NDP ridings do anything differently than they have in the past.

Mark Crawford.

The point is, as I see it, that effective strategic voting is only a possibility if there is a strategic plan. I urge the Liberals to reach out to the NDP and the Greens to develop a strategic plan that involves agreement on platforms and objectives and an agreement to a program for sharing power in an equitable way - Cabinet seats and the like.

Without such a carefully organized program the idea of strategic voting is chicken little land. No one knows which ridings ought to be strategically for the Liberals, the NDP or the Greens. The only indices for personal action will be polling and rumour, supposition and confusion.

The Conservatives, on the other hand, will be organizing their base with care and commitment - entirely sure of what they want and how they should mark their ballot.

The forces that oppose them will be running around trying to game the system rather than just concentrating on getting their candidate elected.

A recipe for disaster, in my view - and a conservative majority.

Without direction and analysis the notion of strategic voting is a disaster looking for a place to happen.

Further, without some commitment from the Liberals, the NDP would be crazy to enable Dion. Surely everyone's learned that lesson by now. The Liberals only care about themselves and their friends, period.

In the absence of some sort of organization this is not going to have the desired end, in my view.

you have not alluded to the fact the tories have the bloc quebecois in their pocket. sure, they don't have alot of seats in qc., but they'll make every back room deal they can to ensure the liberals get nothing in quebec. so far it's working.

the maritimes: who cares.

the west: conservative

ontario: ?

by the way, the libs and ndp will have to prove the tories are indeed, cruel. ie., more single mothers crying on television, etc. etc...

they will have to convince the voter that the gov't programs they want to deliver will be effective. if taxes are raised and the programs don't work, hell hath no fury...

Maximum 30 - 40% of the people in this country ever drink the neocon Kool-Aid. What's required to send pee wee back to the University of Calgary is the effective mobilization of a coalition of the other 60%. Easy to describe. Very difficult to achieve. Informal strategic voting may not do the deal this time. My fear.

Why? Because there are too many people who don't know how to stop acting like sheep and don't understand what's in their own best interest.

In the absence of some sort of organization this is not going to have the desired end, in my view.

G. West, we are not as far apart as I had first thought. You are saying that it takes knowledge, information,planning and organization to make "strategic voting" really work. I agree; that is why Bob Rae, at least philosophically, was the right man for the job. He was always willing to talk about contracts and coalitions with the Liberals when the other scions of the NDP would hear nothing of it. But it was a two-sided bargain. He made Peterson premier, but Peterson had to implement the "agenda for change".

Unfortunately, politics is too much of a zero-sum game to get this level of cooperation, especially with our "winner take all" electoral system. For example, a basic condition for any cooperation from the Greens would likely be to get Elizabeth May in the leaders debate. But that could very easily help Harper more than anyone else, by drawing diffuse support away from Liberals and NDP in marginal COnservative constituencies.

So voters' task: vote Green in May's riding; vote NDP in the 50-100 ridings that the NDP is competitive in; vote your instinctive first preference in ridings that OCNservatives are certain to win; but otherwise vote Liberal in marginal COnservative ridings.

Our task: to write a "Progressive Voters'Guide" that will inform journalists and voters about which ridings and candidates are which.

The parties' task: to get a level of agreement and cooperation that is highly unlikely to materialize.

In the absence of some sort of organization this is not going to have the desired end, in my view.

G. West, we are not as far apart as I had first thought. You are saying that it takes knowledge, information,planning and organization to make "strategic voting" really work. I agree; that is why Bob Rae, at least philosophically, was the right man for the job. He was always willing to talk about contracts and coalitions with the Liberals when the other scions of the NDP would hear nothing of it. But it was a two-sided bargain. He made Peterson premier, but Peterson had to implement the "agenda for change".

Unfortunately, politics is too much of a zero-sum game to get this level of cooperation, especially with our "winner take all" electoral system. For example, a basic condition for any cooperation from the Greens would likely be to get Elizabeth May in the leaders debate. But that could very easily help Harper more than anyone else, by drawing diffuse support away from Liberals and NDP in marginal COnservative constituencies.

So the voters' task: vote Green in May's riding; vote NDP in the 50-100 ridings that the NDP is competitive in; vote your instinctive first preference in ridings that Conservatives are certain to win, in order to water the grass roots; but otherwise vote Liberal in marginal Conservative ridings.

Our task: to write a "Progressive Voters'Guide" that will inform journalists and voters about which ridings and candidates are which for the purpose of implementing such a strategy. Ideally this would have some input from at least some NDP, Liberal, and Green strategists, who are willing to be honest about their own parties' chances in individual constitutencies;

The parties' task: to get a level of agreement and cooperation that is highly unlikely to happen.

* Liberals: 40.1 per cent
* Conservatives: 33.5 per cent
* NDP: 10.2 per cent
* Bloc Quebecois: 8.2 per cent
* Green Party: 7.6 per cent

Mark Crawford:

You're right, Mark, we're not so far apart. Moreover, I essentially agree with your formula for success and what a strategic effort to wrest the government from Harper would actually look like.

Unfortunately, that's the easy part.

Having been burned (both in Ontario and BC and in Ottawa) by Liberal sleaze and broken promises too many times I can't see any point in trying to enact such a strategic coalition unless Dion is willing to make the agreement public.

That's the only way to keep Liberals honest - in fact, it should be part of a binding written contract.

Elizabeth May gets to be minister of the environment and to exercise control over the environmental applications of everything under federal control. The NDP would be entitled to at least 4 ministries and there would have to be agreement to changing the election act before the next election.

I'd have several other suggestions - as I'm sure you would have - but the rest of it could be worked out - stuff like a national childcare program and a complete rethinking of tax policy to create a fairer and more equitable society. And I’d insist Dion disavow whatever promises he’s made to ethnic special interests in Ontario and BC in order to pick up delegate support from the Tamils in Ontario and the Basi Boyz in BC. That would be a deal breaker for me - as would severing all connections with the Marissen/Clark/Campbell team.

Do you think Dion is enough of his own man to make the necessary changes and wear the flak that would immediately start dumping on him in every media outlet in the Canwest empire?

If I thought he were, I, for one would be prepared to talk. And Layton and May ought to be too. Otherwise, I’m far from sanguine about the outcome of an ad hoc citizen driven effort – as I explained above.

These kinds of discussion threads aren’t all that useful for serious organizing. Still, I’m interested.

First test for Dion - and a question I'd like to see him answer right now, before the election is called, is to state his position on Elizabeth May as a full particpant in the debates.

I think pee wee would have a hard time turning her down if Dion and Layton both spoke up for her.

both of you miss the point. a coalition won't work. the left must merge. the green party is neither left nor right, they are in front. (not my words, its on their website). so they will remain the green party. you wanna unseat harper? merge the libs with the ndp. you heard it here first. canadians want to know that you can lead a nation firmly and vigorously. their tendencies are towards the center. not too left, not too right.

A Liberal Democratic Party could be a party of business, (as any national party must), and also have a national daycare program. you want harper to pack his bags -that's how you do it.

you can fiddle-faddle all you want with strategic voting, but it won't solve the problem that the left is unorganised and without vision.

As compared with?

I think just the opposite is the truth. The left is in a constant ferment of questions, proposals, critiques and analysis.

All things Liberals and ‘neoCons’ have foregone in their sweaty struggle for the brass ring.

The left is quite aware it won't form a government anytime soon and that gives it a great sense of freedom and an ability to understand that pathology of the right in a way that makes right wing Americans like ‘acadian driftwood’ nervous.

In fact, the ease with which a few pointed criticisms from the left can stimulate ad hominem fireworks from such folks is really the most insightful thing that arises out of their comments.

They certainly don't have any 'progressive' ideas.

we're actually on the same side, believe it or not. calling the right: pathological, american, sweaty, etc., doesn't help your cause. remember: this is still the same country that gave Brian Mulroney the largest back to back majorities in canadian history.

whether we like it or not, the system we have gives us left wing and right wing. I have illustrated how the left can form a government: with a merger of the libs and ndp.

coalitions, strategic voting, etc. is shameless opportunism, and canadians will call you on it. Hate to break it to you, G, but what the left lacks is moral basis.

Acadian driftwood:
And who criticizes that system more consistently? It certainly isn't the neocon right or the business (liberal elite) right. They are perfectly happy with a methodology which effectively disenfranchises more than 60% of the population. First Past the Post is always all or nothing.

All those guys ever do is talk about electoral reform ..and plead with progressive voters to help bail them out when their particular brand of opportunism loses the brass ring for a few months.

The left is the only party to this argument that has a moral basis to its claims. You might be right that it would lose its moral authority if it ever won power (especially under the current system), but, until then, you don’t have a leg to stand on.

I've never supported strategic voting except as part of a real coalition that would give the left an opportunity to implement some of its moral and practical and populist vision.

In short, you seem to have been morally compromised so long you can't tell the difference any longer.

As someone said once, if all you have is a hammer then every problem looks like a nail.

Do you think Dion is enough of his own man to make the necessary changes and wear the flak that would immediately start dumping on him in every media outlet in the Canwest empire?

If I thought he were, I, for one would be prepared to talk. And Layton and May ought to be too. Otherwise, I’m far from sanguine about the outcome of an ad hoc citizen driven effort – as I explained above.

These kinds of discussion threads aren’t all that useful for serious organizing. Still, I’m interested.

Yes, there probably has to be action at the top. Bob Rae and Elizabeth May are two politicians who have shown unusual willingness to cooperate in the past. Some prompting and grass roots proselytizing--even just something like the publication of a "Progressive Voters' Guide"--could also help. If time permits, I'll try to continue this discussion at my blog, "BC Policy Perspectives"--http://www.markcrawford.blogspot.com

I'll drop in Mark, thanks for that. I agree that if Dion has the jam to actually suggest something like a formal coalition that both May and Layton should talk to him.

It would mean tearing up the Bay Street connections with the Liberal Party and I think he'd be taking a chance the whole Liberal temple would fall down around him....but, given a growing sense of discomfort at the prospect of a Harper majority, it might be the right time to actually start to explore something along these lines.

If a coalition could actually be shown to have successful and workable 'results' it might actually be the beginning of some real CHANGE in the whole country...and not a moment too soon.

you can also reach me at