Why Democrats Are Poised for Power

Ten days before the congressional elections, it appears that American voters are preparing to dramatically reverse the Republican political domination of the last decade and more.

It would take a shift of only 15 seats in the House of Representatives (of 435, all of which are at stake), and six senate seats (of 34 at stake among the 100 senators, who sit for six years), to put the two houses into Democratic hands. As of now, it appears likely that the Democrats will carry the lower house, while in the Senate, the decision rests on a knife's edge.

So used are they to losing, so snake-bit are they by the previously successful Rove/Bush fear-mongering campaign techniques, that Democrats are leery of actually believing what appears to be the movement in their favour. On the other side, George W. Bush remains as arrogant and optimistic as ever, at least in public.

The clearest analysis of this campaign comes in the Washington Post, a paper that covers elections as local news, like police courts and fires. Rather than sharing juicy impressionistic tidbits, I thought it would be more clarifying to synthesize what that paper has been writing in recent days, much of their analysis based on ABC/Washington Post polling data.

Migrating Republicans

It appears from the hard evidence that the Republicans are in near freefall as the election nears. For example, the overall approval ratings of the president have been steadily trending downward, from 42 per cent in September to 39 per cent two weeks ago, and 37 per cent this week.

This erosion is replicated in congressional voting projections. In the 48 most contested House races, 22 per cent of voters strongly approve of Bush's performance, while 44 per cent strongly disapprove. And the change is taking place even among Republican voters and self-defined conservatives, and more dramatically among that 20 per cent of the population who consider themselves independents. This shift has solidified the Democratic hold in the so-called blue states, while putting many traditional red-state constituencies into play, may of them increasingly trending Democratic. Hang in there while I quote some more statistics.

Twelve per cent of Republican voters now say they will vote Democratic for congress while only five per cent of Democrats plan to vote Republican. Twenty-nine per cent of voters who define themselves as conservative plan to vote Democratic, whereas only 17 per cent of them voted that way in 2004. Thirty per cent of white evangelical Protestants plan to vote Democratic this time, compared to 25 per cent two years ago. This is the core Republican voting bloc, and this highly unusual level of desertion can help to reverse Republican chances in many close contests.

Scandal and 'independents'

Among self-defined independent voters, the polling shift is even more apparent. While Bush outpolled Kerry 50 per cent to 48 per cent among these voters in 2004, this week Democrats outpace Republicans 59 per cent to 31 per cent, the largest margin this year. Of these voters, only 23 per cent believe their country is headed in the right direction, while 75 per cent believe it is headed south. (Among the overall electorate, the split is 34 per cent to 66 per cent.)

More than a quarter of voters, and growing, consider Iraq to be the main issue of the election, and of these voters, three quarters plan to vote Democratic while 21 per cent plan to back the president's party. Even on the currently prosperous economy, identified as the major issue by 19 per cent of voters, Democrats are outpolling Republicans 59 per cent to 39 per cent.

As to why this shift is unfolding, polls can tell us less. On Iraq, more and more voters are certain that despite the president's endless optimism, things are going from bad to worse. Many believe that the president lied to them about weapons of mass destruction, and that he is continuing to lie to them about the course of the war. Bob Woodward's recent book, State of Denial, which I will review in the November 4 Vancouver Sun, has added to this sensibility in a notable way, particularly as it comes from a former Bush and Iraq war supporter. But this book only underlines a far wider loss of faith in the war and the war president.

Many voters also seem fed up with the corruption of both big business and the party of big business, especially its operatives in Congress, several of whom, including their maximum leader, Tom DeLay, are under criminal indictment. This corresponds to a certain populist sentiment that increasing American prosperity is true only for the very rich.

Back to scare mongering

Usually by this time in the campaign, the Rove Republicans have found a moralistic "wedge issue" to solidify their base -- in 2000 it was flag burning, in 2004 gay marriage. This time around, pageboy fancier Congressman Mark Foley of Florida has given the Democrats the edge on the wedge, although it is difficult to measure the precise impact of this issue on voting patterns. The Republicans haven't given up, spending 90 per cent of their huge advertising budget on negative ads, many of the most coarsely personal sort. Whether the normal fear-mongering will work one more time seems in doubt.

It is also important to consider that the Democrats contesting traditionally Republican or swing seats are overwhelming moderate to conservative themselves. The Democrats are running as many Iraq war veterans as they could find, the more telling their opposition to the war would sound. Jim Webb, the Democratic candidate for Senator in Virginia, running against the notable racist, Senator George Allan, is himself a right-wing former member of the Reagan administration. In the Deep South in particular, many of the Democrats are anti-abortion, gun loving conservatives. Following the Bill Clinton line of political thought, such Democrats, by tacking rightward, take the conservative consensus away from the Republicans.

Will it matter?

Of course, in all this analysis, the question of accuracy remains, and for that we will have to wait until November 7. Polls can be misleading, and it may well be that the Republicans will maintain their hold in one or both houses of congress. Contrarily, it is at least as likely that the trend will become a landslide on Election Day.

Will it really matter if congress changes hand? You bet your sweet Nellie it will. I will discuss some of those meanings in my next contribution to The Tyee, right after the election.

Or else I will discuss how the Republicans managed to pull off a major upset after all.

Related Tyee stories:

• Best of the Muck: Sleazy US political ads on YouTube
• What War? We've Got 'Pagegate'
• Eastwood's Right Hook at Bush