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Clark's MLAs line up for gold watches before time runs out. Who's likely next?
Cartoon by Greg Perry.
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Find more politics reporting on The Tyee.
"Retirement may be looked upon either as a prolonged holiday or as a rejection, a being thrown on to the scrap heap." -- Simone de Beauvoir, 1908-1986
BC Liberal MLAs are quickly lining up for a retirement gold watch before time runs out on their party.
And as polls show Premier Christy Clark's government has just half the support ex-premier Gordon Campbell achieved in the 2009 election, it's no wonder many would rather step down than be stomped on by voters.
Last week Murray Coell became the eighth BC Liberal MLA to announce they won't run again in next May's provincial election and it's no wonder -- the ex-cabinet minister discarded to the back bench by Clark only won his Saanich North and the Islands seat with 258 votes more than the New Democratic Party.
So with the BC Liberals at just 23 per cent in last week's Angus Reid Public Opinion poll, which other seats are most likely turnovers to the NDP at 45 per cent or even the BC Conservatives, who are threatening at 22 per cent?
Or will any join Abbotsford South MLA John van Dongen and quit the BC Liberals to join the BC Conservatives?
BC Liberal campaign director Mike McDonald told media last week he expects about a third of the 46 BC Liberal MLAs will pack it in.
While some MLAs may just be tired after years in office and others tired of Clark, an analysis of BC Liberal ridings shows many will go NDP, barring a dramatic reversal of fortune.
Earthquake coming
The BC Liberals took 46 per cent of the vote in 2009 versus the BC New Democrats' 42 per cent, the Green Party's eight per cent and the BC Conservatives' two per cent.
Even a substantial improvement boosting the BC Liberals by 12 points to 35 per cent in the election would still mean a stunning loss of seats, with any MLA who won by 10 per cent or less over their opponent likely to be defeated.
Take the 1991 election, when the NDP under Mike Harcourt took 41 per cent of the vote and 51 of 75 seats in the B.C. legislature, the fledgling BC Liberals had 33 per cent and 17 seats and the governing Social Credit held just 24 per cent and only seven seats.
A political earthquake of similar or greater magnitude approaches, unless voters dramatically change their opinion of Clark and her party.
In the Lower Mainland, BC Liberal MLA Marc Dalton in Maple Ridge-Mission has to be the most nervous of all.
Dalton won by 68 votes, or a razor-thin 45.7 per cent to 45.4 per cent of the popular vote.*
Burnaby North MLA Richard T. Lee's 548 vote margin -- or less than three per cent -- won't hold up, nor will Vancouver-Fairview MLA and Labour Minister Margaret MacDiarmid's 1,153 ballot advantage -- or under five per cent.
Tellingly, Burnaby-Lougheed MLA Harry Bloy already announced his retirement in a riding where the politically accident-prone ex-cabinet minister only won by 696 votes, or less than four per cent.
In Vancouver-Fraserview, controversial MLA Kash Heed is cashing out, seeing his 748 vote margin, under four per cent, unlikely to allow re-election -- not to mention his 2009 campaign being fined thousands for overspending Elections BC limits.
Surrey-Tynehead MLA Dave Hayer also called it quits this month, in a riding he held in 2009 by less than 10 per cent, with a 1,557 vote margin.
Cariboo-Chilcotin MLA Donna Barnett had the slimmest victory margins of any B.C. Liberal in 2009 -- just 88 votes over the NDP. Her chances of surviving the next election look equally slim.
Oak Bay-Gordon Head MLA Ida Chong won narrowly in 2009 by 561 votes or just over two per cent and then survived a recall campaign as well in 2011, but with the BC Liberal tide going out, is unlikely to be returned.
Kamloops-North Thompson is a classic weathervane riding for B.C. elections, with the party that wins there triumphing in the province for decades.
And the BC Liberals' Terry Lake did just that in 2009 by 510 votes or less than three per cent.
But Lake took 47 per cent of the ballots then while the B.C. Liberals had 46 per cent support provincially -- if they are at 35 per cent or less, Lake's chances will run dry.
Comox-Valley MLA Don McRae won his rookie campaign in another frequent swing riding with a 1,378 vote margin over the NDP, a less than five per cent gap with 47.3 per cent of the vote. Cut BC Liberal support provincially and the swing goes against McRae.
Greens, Cons and vote splits
And which BC Liberal MLA has the most at stake in a close race?
Premier Christy Clark herself, who narrowly eked out a 594 vote win in the Vancouver-Point Grey by-election last May -- under four per cent of the ballots cast.
Just one BC Liberal has gone in the other direction, committing to run again in 2013 -- Vancouver-Langara MLA Moira Stilwell, who enjoyed a 24 per cent margin of 4,275 votes.
But even Stilwell's strong position isn't enough to deter former Vancouver city councillor George Chow from expressing interest in running against her for the NDP.
The other big factor for BC Liberal MLAs undecided about running again is what impact two other parties will have on the election -- the BC Conservatives and the Green Party.
Most political observers tag the Green Party as taking away more votes from the NDP than any other party -- and some New Democrats blame their vote for twice re-electing the BC Liberals.
But while the Greens have been nearly invisible under leader Jane Sterk, they still poll eight per cent in the Angus Reid survey -- the same tally they got in the 2009 election.
The BC Conservatives, on the other hand, are clearly taking away many former BC Liberal votes and unlike 2009, they will likely be running far more than the 24 candidates who contested the election out of 85 possible ridings.
BC Conservative Leader John Cummins is hoping his party will actually leapfrog past Clark's team into second place just as unelected former BC Liberal leader Gordon Wilson did in 1991 over another fading woman premier -- Social Credit's Rita Johnson, who replaced Bill Vander Zalm.
(In an ironic footnote, Johnson is now a big supporter of the BC Conservatives and attended their annual general meeting in 2010.)
Cummins should not be underestimated, having re-energized a nearly dormant party into one consistently polling in the 20 per cent range, and within spitting distance of the flagging BC Liberals.
Should Clark make yet more fumbles along the way to the election, a decent campaign from the BC Conservatives could indeed let them vault past the governing party and might also take seats the BC NDP now hopes to win.
Regardless of Cummins' chances, his party has rejected all overtures from the BC Liberals and their big business funders like Canaccord Capital's Peter Brown to fold their tent into one big happy "free enterprise" family.
The political mood of the province seems increasingly clearly set against the BC Liberals having any hope of a fourth term of office.
And that means Premier Christy Clark will be attending a lot of MLA retirement parties soon -- including possibly her own.
*Note: An earlier version of this article stated 532 votes instead of 68. The Tyee regrets the error. ![[Tyee]](http://thetyee.cachefly.net/ui/img/ico_fishie.png){kind=small}
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cyberclark
48 weeks ago
The BC Election the most important for Canada!
Campbell and now Clark continue a hand in hand relationship with the Alberta and Federal Conservatives through their private organization PNWER!
http://albertathedetails.blogspot.com/2010/12/canada-is-under-seige-from-within.html
Harper is playing an all or nothing game in Ottawa. Kenny's first throw at immigration changes allows employers to offer citizenship to immigrants whom they have hired.
Recent articles in the news carry stories of Alberta not having an immigration Judge which has resulted in hundreds of immigrants (most from the US) waiting.
This has prompted Kenny to change the immigration laws still again. His most recent change allows immigrants, from any place, out of any institution to land in a Canadian airport and pick up a work permit.
The first law remains in effect. This means they fly the airport, pick up a work permit and look for a job which allows them citizenship. Keep in mind there is no burden or responsibly on the employer who helps them out.
Harper has said in so many ways he doesn't like Canada. This mass immigration program will drastically change the political landscape in Canada!
We so very much need to get rid of the BC Liberals. Nothing; Nothing could be worse for the province or country than them.
Hakuin
48 weeks ago
yes yes
retirement, all very well and good.
But when are we going to see the criminal prosecutions?
Don McBain
48 weeks ago
Retirement Party
I think even "I" would like to attend Christy Clark's retirement party. :)
bcguy
48 weeks ago
The tide is going out and
The tide is going out and will take a lot of Liberal MLA's with it, so as the article mentions , better to jump, get the pesnion and leave rther than try to hold on. Some don't have the time in place to collect a pension so may stay and hope the polls are all wrong. Can't wait to see Christy get dumped
Don McBain
48 weeks ago
Hakuin - prosecutions
Wait until next May when Attorney General Leonard Krog is elected. :)
Hakuin
48 weeks ago
well Don,
here's hoping but not holding my breath. They've just about gotten away with the BC Rail theft by simply stalling, a public inquiry means more delays.
Can anyone remember when an elected representathief did one day of real jail time for stabbing us in the backs?
Sask Resident
48 weeks ago
Federal Liberal
When the BC "anybody but the Dippers" or Liberal part elected a card carrying federal Liberal, who had Jean Chretien on speed dial, as leader, the BC Liberals lost the support of former social crediters and conservatives, and probably some provincial Liberals. Clark might gain some support by publicly burning her federal Liberal party membership card and picking a fight with both Bob Rae and Trudeau. Christy Clark has changed some by beginning to stick up for the province of BC first rather than continuing to court federal Liberals who look at BC as a cash cow for Toronto.
The problem for the BC voters is lack of choice. Dix can't be trusted to pay for a transit pass and is against jobs for blue collar workers. Dix has already come out against the pipelines before the review of the environmental assessment is complete for example. The conservatives can't win so would be a questionable choice.
Sask Resident
48 weeks ago
Hakuin: Prosecutions
Well although the Mounties seem to have Glen Clark dead to rights on the casino scandal, he was never charged nor jailed. Clark never had to answer for the fast ferries either. Seems the incoming politicians, even of a different stripe, didn't want to go after the out going politicians. I doubt if things have changed. The NDP will lose the file.
sunshine coast girl
48 weeks ago
Yup, I'm sure Marc Dalton is very nervous indeed
because he actually beat Mike Bocking by only 68 votes. 8,734 8,802 This time he is gone, gone, gone......
hg
48 weeks ago
Sask resident
The liberals must be desperate, they can't find a hack in BC that supports them
jay1200
48 weeks ago
retirement season....
no doubt there are a few who think the conservatives under cummins is the only way to go, but why? the conservatives under harper in ottawa have sent to groundwork for not telling the truth and breaking the rules that harper so despises. the robogate scandal, overspending to get electred by toews, del maestro, many others no doubt, and invalidated elections, over spending by crooks like campbell and deluxe orange juice, unproven trouble prone f35 fighters we do not need, want, or....can afford just so mackay can strut around...definitely the robber barons of old in 21st century clothes.
hopefully cummins can shake off the conservative image and do something ..walk the walk, not talk the talk of the harperites. personally the way we vote in b.c. is to vote someone out......i think we will maintain this operating procedure, and we will not vote someone in...who is there in the wings?
can you say 'no-one!'
dave0ferg
48 weeks ago
@Hakuin--Robert Sommers
@Hakuin
Robert Sommers was tried and in 1958 was convicted of bribery and conspiracy making him the first cabinet minister in the British Commonwealth to serve a term of imprisonment for accepting bribes in connection with his office. Sommers was sentenced to 5 years in prison but was released after 28 months.
Skywalker
48 weeks ago
Right on hg!
Sask Resident can't even grasp the significance of a "not guilty" verdict or that no charges were ever laid on the fast ferries. But hey, what do you expect being so far removed from BC reality
Tieleman
48 weeks ago
Bill Tieleman on jailed BC politician Robert Sommers
Haquin - Robert Sommers - Forests Minister under W.A.C. Bennett's Social Credit government - was sentenced to jail for 5 years after being convicted of conspiracy and bribery in awarding forest licenses for money and goods. Interestingly - Basi-Virk case observers take note - the jury decided that BC Forest Products was not part of a bribery plot in connection with the license it received, as author David Mitchell notes on page 248 of his book W.A.C. Bennett and the Rise of British Columbia.
Sommers was the first cabinet minister in British Commonwealth history to be jailed and served 2 years and fourth months before being paroled in July 1961.
I don't believe any other BC politician was jailed until ex-Premier Gordon Campbell spent a night in the Maui lock-up during his drunk driving incident in January 2003.
paisley
48 weeks ago
Honest Bob Sommers
Make no mistake it was not the government or police that went after good ole Bob to prove a crime had been committed. It was Gordon Gibson(Bull of the Woods) that spent his personal money and hired a private investigator to track down an accountant (with intimate knowledge of the crime) that had skipped off to California. Gibson at the time was an MLA that had been kicked out of the legislature for calling Sommers a crook. If not for Gibson's tenacity Sommers would have never been tried and convicted.
I wouldn't hold my breath hoping the next government will make a concerted effort to bring justice for the people of BC.
FatherTheo
48 weeks ago
The view from Sask
The view from Saskatchewan on the proposed pipeline is evidently not the same as from here in BC. It will be crossing 700 streams amidst some of the wildest, most treacherous terrain on the planet, carrying some of the dirtiest oil on the planet. A spill is inevitable. There are hundreds every year now on pipelines already built. Then it gets loaded into tankers the better to endanger BC's pristine coast. All for less than 60 jobs in BC and dubious economic benefit for Canada as a whole.
Only a moron would accept such a deal. The fact that Christy Clark is dithering on the question shows how close to truly moronic right-wing politicians are.
Hakuin
48 weeks ago
Sommers eh? ...
Since no rich benefactor is about to step forward and pay for the law-trade workers and private investigators need to get a BC Rail conviction, perhaps we should band together and start a public fund. Hopefully the people of BC could buy standing in the courts and either get back their property or at least punish the thieves.
freebear
48 weeks ago
When I saw the headline I immediately guessed the author
was Bill; scrolled down and voila'
Whatever the political stripe, when the ship is going down the rats leave the ship with pensions in hand!
paisley
48 weeks ago
Hakuin
Interesting point(idea) probably the only way to stop politicians and bureaucrats from being crooks. I'm in.
Kreditanstalt
48 weeks ago
Meaningless number-crunching...
And even IF the other ("NDP") wing of the Governing Party got in, what would change?
The welfare state would still expand - with borrowed money. Taxes on all except NDP clients would rise, further crushing small business. Private business contracts of all kinds would be interfered with. Projects would be cancelled. Mines would not open. Exports would shrink. Expensive government monopolies would be continued. The number of public employees would rise...as would their costs.
Elections are hopeless. Why vote at all?
And we do live in wonderful times: we are seeing the gradual public withdrawal of government legitimacy, of "consent-to-be-governed", as more and more people simply turn off & tune out, avoiding and evading governments, semi-retiring, cutting back, refusing to spend, working in the underground economy, networking at the local level...
This trend is PERNICIOUS. It's like dry rot: can't be stopped, can't be remedied without blowback and can only get stronger.
lowball
48 weeks ago
Shills
One must not forget that a lot of these Liberal shills were once Social Credit. Now the rat's are deserting the ship once again, some of them going to the Conservatives. What a bunch of two-faced opportunists. Anyway, it probably doesn't matter because the NDP will win the next election.
Skywalker
48 weeks ago
Hey Kreditan and freebear..
...is that your best defense of Christy? Christy is toast but, nothing is an improvement? Anything is an improvement! Anything other than these clowns.
lowball
48 weeks ago
Shills
One must not forget that a lot of these Liberal shills were once Social Credit. Now the rat's are deserting the ship once again, some of them going to the Conservatives. What a bunch of two-faced opportunists. Anyway, it probably doesn't matter because the NDP will win the next election.
Hakuin
48 weeks ago
OK, we use the web.
We crowd source our financing from the people of BC, do a sort of legal Kickstarter project to raise the money to buy our justice. Best keep this out of the usual structures like the stock market, they are already hopeless.
I suppose we need to raise seed capital to buy the initial legal folderol... is there any tradition of non-profits being used for pursuing a specific litigation?
ReeferMadness
48 weeks ago
Why is Bill crowing
besides the fact that he's a blatant partisan NDP insider masquerading as a political commentator? (Tyee, won't someone tell me why you keep running this guy's crap?)
The reason that Bill is crowing is that, thanks in part to his extremely dishonest portrayal of STV, the NDP will enjoy a phony majority government next year. Many of you will cheer but a phony NDP majority is no more democratic than a phony Liberal majority.
crankypants
47 weeks ago
Maybe
Maybe John Van Dongen will be to Christy Clark what Gordon Gibson was to Robert Sommers. It seems that both Van Dongen and Gibson were willing to put up their own money in the hopes of bringing some small amount of credibility to the goings on at the Legislature.
Hakuin
47 weeks ago
Him?
Jumping ship at the last moment to defect to what he hopes is the winning team? After nearly two decades serving the dark side?
Fiat lux
47 weeks ago
Kredit...Small business has
Kredit...Small business has no worse enemies than the idiot twins of communism and capitalism, collectivizing everything into the hands of the same ruling class waving different flags. I.e. China.
My business was booming under the Barrett govt. but when Bennett took over and doubled the ICBC rates, it caused a mini depression all over BC. with businesses going bellyup by the hundreds. Cost me $65,000 something like $650-700,000 in today's money.
Right now we have hundreds of farmers and ranchers forced off their lands by the price fixing and control of the markets by the international corporate mafia.
The world's food supplies are controlled by a handful of mega corporations, in the best Soviet style.
Wake up, although it is too much to expect from the faithful slogan punchers.
Ed Deak.
deeby
47 weeks ago
Federal Liberal AND Martinite
Sask Resident, the notion that Christy's a friend of Jean Cretien is utterly laughable. Google around and look at the historical record, which is easily available.
Christy, her ex-husband, and her cohorts, including Erik Bornmann, Dave Basi, Bob Virk and others, spent the early to mid-nineties agitating and taking over BC constituency associations on behalf of the Paul Martin leadership campaign, hastening the decline of the BC wing of the federal Liberal party as a result.
Cretien would probably treat her like the protester he tried to strangle if they were in the same room together, never mind take her calls.