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BC's Carbon Tax Doesn't Work
As gas prices go up, pollution does too. Time to fix it.
Carbon tax on track to add 6.67 cents to every litre.
"The carbon tax alone could cause a reduction in B.C.'s emissions in 2020 by up to three million tonnes of CO2 equivalent annually." -- B.C. Ministry of Finance website.
If the intent of the B.C. Liberal government's three-year-old carbon tax was to reduce gasoline consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, it's been a smoking wreck on the highway.
The carbon tax puts an additional tax of 5.56 cents per litre onto the already high price of gasoline, which includes many other federal, provincial and municipal taxes.
The gas tax went up another 1.1 cents a litre on July 1 -- with the intent of persuading consumers to reduce gasoline consumption.
It also applies to home heating fuels, natural gas and other petroleum products.
But there are a few problems. First, the carbon tax isn't working.
Statistics Canada figures tell the gassy tale of woe.
In 2010, B.C. motor gasoline sales were 4,695.7 in thousands of cubic metres compared to 4,529.8 in 2008 -- the first year the carbon tax started, on July 1.
There are many other factors that affect gas sales but one thing is clear -- selling more gas each year means greenhouse gas emissions are going up, not down.
Doesn't fund green improvements
Why the carbon tax isn't reducing consumption is simple. Increasing the price without providing drivers with more options on how to reduce their use of fuel doesn't work.
The B.C. carbon tax introduced with great fanfare by former B.C. Liberal premier Gordon Campbell is supposed to be revenue neutral, offsetting the increased cost of gas and other fuels with personal and corporate income tax cuts.
That means the nearly $1 billion in extra gas taxes annually doesn't fund public transit at all, nor does it provide financial incentives to buy more fuel-efficient vehicles, make your home more energy efficient or fund other environmental projects.
The second big problem is that the carbon tax is unfair, because it's a regressive consumption tax, like the Harmonized Sales Tax.
Lower and middle income British Columbians end up paying proportionately more of their limited budget on gas and heating fuel than wealthy people.
While there is a carbon tax rebate for very low income earners, the maximum personal credit is $115.50 and the personal income threshold for the maximum grant is $31,000.
That means the carbon tax makes you pay more than your fair share of the cost while you don't at least get the benefits of better public transit so you can leave the car at home to go to work, or get a tax break on buying a gas-miser vehicle with lower emissions.
How popular really?
Environmentalists went ga-ga in delirious joy when the carbon tax was introduced as the first in North America, hoping it would start a trend.
Instead, every other jurisdiction has rejected the idea and the federal Liberal Party's vaunted Green Shift plan for some form of carbon tax espoused by then-leader Stephane Dion in 2008 turned into a flaming electoral disaster.
Environmental group the Pembina Institute issued a news release optimistically titled "British Columbians support the carbon tax" just before the July 1 carbon tax increase citing a poll it commissioned that purported to show support for the controversial measure.
In fact, 33 per cent said the carbon tax has been "positive" for B.C. while 41 per cent said it was neutral. Another 27 per cent said it was "very negative" or "somewhat negative."
But the poll also shows that a majority -- 51 per cent of respondents -- do not want any further increases in the carbon tax after 2012's final 1.1 cent hike to 6.67 cents a litre goes ahead, while just 29 per cent support further gas and fuel tax increases.
The poll also shows that 49 per cent of respondents support using new carbon tax revenues for public transit, topped only by the 56 per cent who say use it for health and education.
That indicates the carbon tax could be fixed in a way most British Columbians would support.
But so long as it penalizes lower and middle income earners, not to mention northern and rural residents who simply have no public transit options at all but nonetheless have to pay the carbon tax, the reality is clear.
The carbon tax pledge is still a lot of hot air. ![]()




35
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realisticman
45 weeks ago
Axe the Tax didn't work. Moving on.
B.C. finds success with controversial carbon tax
david ebner AND shawn mccarthy
Globe and Mail - Jul. 03, 2011
"As the carbon tax turned three on Canada Day, early results on emissions data and economic growth suggest B.C.’s experiment with one of the world’s first carbon levies has been a success. Research by Stewart Elgie, an economist and professor of law at the University of Ottawa, found that B.C.’s per-capita fuel usage had fallen more than 4 per cent compared with the rest of Canada and its economy, measured by gross domestic product, hasn’t been hurt, keeping with Canada as a whole.
At Richmond Plywood Corp., on an arm of the Fraser River just south of Vancouver, a new energy system that burns the company’s own waste has slashed natural gas costs – almost completely insulating the firm from British Columbia’s carbon tax.
The carbon tax wasn’t the sole reason Richmond Plywood made the move – high natural gas prices were also a factor – but it was the tax’s introduction that sparked the change. And it’s exactly the type of action that then-premier Gordon Campbell hoped industry and individuals would undertake when he introduced one of the world’s first carbon taxes three years ago. ...
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/bc-finds-success-with-controversial-carbon-tax/article2084989/
mopled
45 weeks ago
Ax the Carbon Tax
Since the whole idea that CO2 can change climate is baseless, why are we not demanding an end to the lunacy of the "carbon tax"?
Probably because the environmental movement was bought years ago and not one of the NGOs still pushing the falsehood wants to give up all that cash....$300 Million from US based foundations like Tides.
"Unlike many charitable foundations, Tides U.S. doesn’t have a large endowment. “In practice, Tides behaves less like a philanthropy than a money-laundering enterprise, taking money from other foundations and spending it as the donor requires,” writes the U.S. Center for Consumer Freedom. “Called ‘donor-advised’ giving, this pass-through funding vehicle provides public-relations insulation for the money’s original donors.”
Since 2000, Tides Canada has been paid at least US$56-million by American charitable foundations. In 2007 and 2008, Tides Canada received US$34-million and ranked 14th in the world in terms of funding from U.S. foundations. Obviously, something about Tides Canada is very important to its American funders.
Tides, and the U.S. foundations that fund it, have incredibly deep pockets. A large part of Tides’ funding comes from the Gordon & Betty Moore Foundation, the William & Flora Hewlett Foundation, the David & Lucile Packard Foundation, the Pew Charitable Trusts and the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. These are The Big Five. They give away about US$1.2-billion every year. If these foundations decide to undermine a foreign industry, they probably can.
These Big Five have poured at least US$190-million into Canada’s environmental movement over the last decade, but their American logos are nowhere to be seen. Instead, we see a pageant of Canadian icons: dogwood, herds of caribou, wild salmon, First Nations and loons. U.S. tax returns show that the David Suzuki Foundation has been paid at least US$10-million from American foundations. This hasn’t exactly been out in the open."
http://opinion.financialpost.com/2010/10/14/u-s-foundations-against-the-oil-sands/#more-6315
Cycling Commuter
45 weeks ago
Motivating the Rich to Stop Wasting
When the price of gasoline in the U.S. hit $4.00 per gallon in 2008, U.S. Department of Transportation stats showed that driving dropped to levels not seen since World War II. The reduction was mostly accomplished by increased carpooling as well as people moving closer to their jobs or finding new jobs closer to home. When the price of gasoline dropped, people went back to their old habits. The response in Canada was similar.
Even with the carbon tax, the overall price of gasoline in B.C. today is lower than it was in 2008. People have gone back to their fuel-wasting habits.
If there was an all-party consensus to maintain a carbon tax that was constantly adjusted to keep the price at the pump at 2008 levels, with refundable credits to low and medium income people adequate to more than offset extra costs, consumption would be reduced to 2008 levels and the extra money would be available for social programs instead of going to oil company shareholders. This is exactly how it has worked in Europe for years.
Ideally, carbon taxes would only apply to higher income people who use far more than their fair share of energy to begin with and can easily afford to mitigate increased costs by purchasing more fuel efficient vehicles and super-insulating their homes to the point that they can be heated with very little energy. But it's not practical to charge high income people more for fuel and charge low to mid income people less. The only practical way of accomplishing this is to charge everyone more for energy and issue credits to low to mid income users. If that approach is rejected, then we are stuck with the current situation where rich people who use way more than their fair share of energy are actually being heavily subsidized by society because the external impact of that energy wastage is being paid for with extremely regressive taxes such as medical insurance premiums.
Ronald Reagan's trickledown theories were mostly drivel. But trickledown often does work in the area of energy efficiency. If rich people are motivated to pay extra for new fuel efficient cars, those cars will eventually be available on the second hand market at a price that is affordable to lower income people. When the Toyota Prius hit the Canadian market, they sold for about $30k new. With high enough fuel prices, such a vehicle is financially justifiable and easily affordable for a $150,000 per year stockbroker, union boss, PR flack, or politician driving 40,000 km per year. If they sell it for $15k after 5 years and 200,000 km, they have got their money's worth out of it and a moderate income buyer of this used vehicle can expect to get another couple of hundred thousand km out of it before spending any significant amount on repairs. If a low income person is willing to buy a 10 year old Prius with 200,000 km and a few dings and scratches, they can get it for under $3k. Same concept with super-insulated houses.
Cycling Commuter
45 weeks ago
Public Transit Doesn't Recognize Value of Time
Public transit will always be inefficient, a waste of time. Carpooling and part-time cabs are far more convenient and reliable, they cost taxpayers nothing, and they are practical in small towns. As Tieleman has admitted, many people feel the billions of dollars wasted on public transit would be better invested in our crumbling medical system. Carpooling increased much faster than transit use between 1996 and 2006 despite all the absurd restrictions imposed on carpooling vs billions subsidizing public transit.
http://www12.statcan.ca/english/census06/analysis/pow/5_increase.cfm
I once dated an assistant bank manager who took public transit to work every day. The money she saved was used to buy deluxe Club Med vacations several times a year. Public transit subsidies wound up buying fancy vacations for an assistant bank manager.
There would be no need for public transit if government bureaucrats would simply get out of the way, stop limiting the number of cab licenses issued, stop interfering with shared cabs and hailed cabs, and stop interfering with cabbies who want to vastly increase efficiency by picking up passengers on return trips across municipal boundaries instead of coming back empty.
"The Origins of Taxicab Limitation in Vancouver City" is a fascinating academic study on the history of taxi cab monopolies in Vancouver:
http://ojs.library.ubc.ca/index.php/bcstudies/article/view/1087/1131
From the study:
"no other economic activity over which civic control has been so complete, so durable, and so manifestly contrary to the interests of the using public."
"Those who do use taxis — visitors, the disabled, those on expense accounts, and those temporarily without other means of transport — are a disparate lot without voice or presence at City Hall."
"Committee chairman H. G. T. Perry (Liberal) was not persuaded [of the need to limit the number of cab licenses issued]: 'It seems to me such a move would create a monopoly. Eventually some corporation will gain control of the business.' CCF members Harold Winch and Lyle Telford opposed the proposal on the same grounds, while Conservative R. L. Maitland favoured the idea."
"...the only aspects which should be of concern to civic authorities were the safety of vehicles and the character of drivers. Anyone with a safe vehicle and a fit character should be allowed entry. In time the number of cabs would reach an optimum level on its own."
"Canadian taxi wars, 1925-1950":
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Canadian+taxi+wars,+1925-1950.-a030556140
"...by May 1929, as cabs, behaving like common carriers, cruised along the street railway routes offering to carry up to five passengers to any destination in the city for a shared fare of 25 cents."
"By draining off some of the excess passengers at rush-hour, the jitney [shared] cabs would also have allowed municipal transit companies to get by with fewer drivers and vehicles, thus cutting their costs as well."
Grumpy
45 weeks ago
Well, duh Bill............................
..........the Carbon Tax hasn't worked because it was never a carbon tax, rather it was a punitive gas tax. Real Carbon Taxes sees tax monies spent on transit projects to reduce carbon emissions.
The mainstream media have been willingly duped on this issue and continue the myth.
Until our politicians and very incompetent academics start preaching the truth about BC's Carbon Tax, the region will see more punitive taxes masquerading ad "good taxes", when they are in effect general taxes.
In BC Carbon Taxes aren't; P-3 aren't and corrupt politicians and MSN are.
G West
45 weeks ago
@realisticman
I think your economist needs to look at his numbers again...I was suspicious of that Globe article when I read it.
pianosaurus rex
45 weeks ago
doesn't change consumption behavior
The claim is that consumption taxes are meant to modify consumer’s behaviour.
Back around the year 2000 I seem to recall that the price at the pumps spiked some 40-50 cents per litre.
This did not change any of the driving habits for British Columbians. Gasoline consumption or lack thereof did not change.
How 7 cents a litre Carbon tax is supposed to modify consumer’s behaviour is beyond me but we all witnessed Suzuki and Berman take their thirty pieces of silver and jump on board.
For cycling commuter;
There is a reason those second hand Prius are cheap. The cost of a replacement battery is in the five figures…..
Skywalker
45 weeks ago
Grumpy is right on the mark.
It was always intended to be a cash cow for a bunch of debt ridden liberals. Nothing more, nothing less. In that sense it worked just fine for them. That's why it is claimed a success by some eastern economists.
cboo44
45 weeks ago
It's a Punitive Gas Tax............. for SOME !
"The Carbon Tax hasn't worked because it was never a carbon tax, rather it was a punitive gas tax."
APPARENTLY, some people in BC fuel up with "special" gas and diesel. They are EXEMPT for the "so-called" Carbon Tax. And yet I can't find any of those "special pumps" that dispense this type of fuel !
Trouble is, I'm betting that this special fuel pukes out just as much emission as my vehicle.
mopled
45 weeks ago
Australia is fighting a carbon tax
wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/11/transcript-of-andrew-bolts-carbon-sunday-interview-with-richard-lindzen/
"AB: What effect would a carbon dioxide tax in Australia—the aim is to cut emissions by 5% by 2020—what effect would that have on the world’s temperature?
RL: I don’t think anyone could possibly detect it even with future technology. It would be nothing, for all practical purposes, and it would be nothing if the whole world did the same.
AB: So does it make any sense at all to adopt a tax, or to spend directly on programs to cut emissions?
RL: Depends on who you are. For governments, you know, they want taxes and they know people don’t like to pay them, and I think if they can possibly confuse people into thinking they’re doing it save the earth, they’ll do it more willingly.
AB: So you’d consider this more a sort of big government measure than anything that could really influence the world’s climate for the good.
RL: I think there’s no disagreement in the scientific community that this will have no impact on climate, so it’s purely a matter of government revenue. And, as I say, I mean if they can fool the people into thinking that they really want to pay taxes to save the earth, that’s a dream for politicians."
Richard S.Lindzen MIT,
Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences
morechatter
45 weeks ago
What about the environment and the low income?
BC Liberals get those without a carbon foot print to pay the biggest price. If you are disabled on assistance you have to use it as income for the entire month of the year government gives clients no assistance for. Instead government administers support payments four times a year disguised as a rebate which it is not. BC low income are plagued with higher prices everywhere they turn, and the inflation factor and the HST and carbon tax off their purchases leaves BC's low income in a major dilemma with no where to turn.
http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/policynote/2011/07/bc-about-drop-new-carbon-bomb
edoherty
45 weeks ago
Blacktop Politics Drives Gas Consumption
Sure Bill, yes money from the carbon tax should fund public transit, including a passenger rail and highway bus strategy for the whole province. (Yes people in rural areas want transit service too, particularly along the Highway of Tears)
But the bigger problem is that for decades governments have been telling us to take transit and drive less, but spending more and more on freeways and road expansion. Build more urban roads and they just fill up and more tar sands oil gets burned.
Right now the provincial government is demolishing the 115 year old Glenrose Cannery in Delta to make way for the $1.5 billion South Fraser Perimeter Road freeway. The next step is to pave over the archeological site next to it that is older than the Pyramids of Egypt - http://stopthepave.org/historic-cannery-coming-down
gulley
45 weeks ago
basic math
"I once dated an assistant bank manager who took public transit to work every day. The money she saved was used to buy deluxe Club Med vacations several times a year. Public transit subsidies wound up buying fancy vacations for an assistant bank manager."
Cycling Commuter, I'd like to know where your date shopped for her club med vacations. The transit tax credit is 15%. A 3 zone pass is $151, so over a year that would give a total credit of 0.15*151*12, or $271. Even assuming a marginal tax rate of 50%, that leaves $135. Is there a club med in surrey I don't know about?
Hopefully your cycling skills are better than your math skills.
OhCanada
45 weeks ago
Public Transit DOES work!
Cycling Commuter
"Public transit will always be inefficient, a waste of time."
This statement can only come from a mouth of a person who lived its entire life in North America. In this part of the continent people really have no clue what REAL PUBLIC TRANSPORT is really all about.
My suggestion to you is go to Europe to a similar size of a city such as Vancouver. You'll quickly realize that going anywhere in the city will be faster by public transit than by car.
Public transport works as it can be seen in many European countries. And it is ahead of North America by about 15 years!
Public transport in North America is gross and disgusting to say the least. Unless you work in downtown or UBC the majority of people who take public transport here, and in many major cities in Canada are the poor and the students. Just look at the ridership and you'll see what I'm talking about.
Subsidies go to the oil companies here where as in Europe subsidies go to public transit.
When gas prices here will be $4.00/ltr - like it is in Europe - maybe people will demand alternative transportation to commute to work. Until then nothing will change here.
The time that most people waste commuting to work can be done in public transit in Europe for less than half!
So while an average North American sits and idles in their cars for 1 hour to work and 1 hour back home (on a distance that is about 40km or less) a European will spend sitting on a train for 30 minutes or less.
So who is using and wasting more energy? North Americans! And they still insist that public transit doesn't work. Well, no planning and no money isn't going to create efficient public transport system. Duh!
Ronald Pagan
45 weeks ago
So cherry picking gasoline
So cherry picking gasoline sales in a vacuum is proof enough for Tieleman to declare that the carbon tax doesn't work?
EDITED FOR PERSONAL INSULTS -- MODERATOR The Tyee would do well to bid his opinions adieu.
jimmy_laroux
45 weeks ago
@realisticman
So how exactly have Richmond Plywood Corporation's grenhouse gas emissions been reduced? They're burning (wood?) waste instead of natural gas, with just as high, if not higher, GHG emissions. The tax just encouraged them to change the fuel that they burn (illustrating quite clearly how this is a fuel tax, not a "carbon" tax). This leads into my next point...
...that domestic sales of refined petroleum products, which I assume is what is meant in the above quote by "per-capita fuel usage", is totally irrelevant. The whole point of the "carbon" tax was to reduce BC's GHG total emissions, which includes far more that just emissions from refined petroleum products (like for example burning wood waste). The BC GHG inventory for 2009 is out soon. We'll see then whether emissions have risen or fallen.
As for the Provincial GDP, other factors like the Olympics and the housing bubble, surely had an impact.
Ronald Pagan
45 weeks ago
How is domestic per capita
How is domestic per capita fuel use irrelevant? What is more relevant?
Total GHG emissions? Maybe, but then you're just looking too broadly at a complex picture, you need to account for population growth for one thing, and most likely economic growth too.
Absolute emissions increases and reductions are the result of a complex system including structural changes in your economy, the weather (which influences residential fuel use and electricity production), capital stock retirements, etc.
What the eye to look at is, especially with a low carbon price like BC's is reductions from a BAU baseline if you didn't have a carbon tax.
Ronald Pagan
45 weeks ago
@jimmy
Under various conventions from yes even the IPCC burning biomass for energy does not count as a GHG emission because the carbon in the wood was already in the carbon cycle.
There are some emissions from land use changes but those protocols are still not well understood and are generally not reported on in emissions inventories.
So yes while still problematic, biomass energy is not considered a source of anthropogenic GHG emissions. If you have a problem with that then take up to a couple layers higher than the carbon tax.
jimmy_laroux
45 weeks ago
@Ronald Pagan
Total emissions. I wrote total emissions in my post.
Right!
No, not maybe. Definitely.
It's not my picture, it's the former Premier's. He made a grandiose promise back in 2007 to cut total GHG emssions 33% by 2020.
From an environmental standpoint, total GHG emssions is the only quantity that matters. But if you prefer to talk about per-capita emissions, that's fine too. I was simply trying to use the same yardstick to measure progress as the BC government. My point is simply that not all emissions come from burning refined fuels, and I don't think Elgie's analysis includes this. I don't know if BC's emissions are increasing currently (they did in 2008, during a recession no less, the last year for which data is available), but I think it's too early to say whether total emissions (or per-capita emissions) are rising or falling, and if the carbon tax has had the desired effect.
I'll take your word for it, but my point regarding Elgie's comparisons still holds.
mopled
45 weeks ago
From an environmental standpoint MORE CO2 IS BETTER
Really!
I find it more than passing strange that this crew would fall for something pushed by Big Al Gore, El Gordo El Magnifico and the Governator.
Where are your brains?
CO2 makes plants grow,soda pop, beer fizz and champagne explode....what's not to like?
The I in IPCC stands for INTERGOVERNMENTAL!
When was the last time government told the truth. When Campbell was in power and we got the carbon tax?
Ronald Pagan
45 weeks ago
Well Jimmy, you're likely to
Well Jimmy, you're likely to be disappointed. Nobody expects the carbon tax to reduce total emissions so early. First the carbon price isn't high enough, second population growth and economic growth (which wasn't that bad in the recession and is now practically fully rebounded) will press that figure up.
So yes I agree that total emissions is what matters in the end, but showing per capita reductions relative to the rest of Canada is a pretty good indication that the tax is working to its stated objectives of reducing emissions. Comparing to a target baseline will always leave you wanting. Comparing to a baseline of what you would have done without a tax will show reductions, which also matter.
Third, to get the big reductions you need to wait for an appropriate time to account for capital stock retirement. When people need a new car, or industry needs a new furnace or kiln. This stuff is all staggered but you can't expect the carbon price to make a pulp mill buy a new kiln if it just bought one 5 years ago, you'll need to wait another 15 years until it gets a new one. That or you jack the carbon price way up.
And you're right now all emissions come from burning fuels, but those are the only emissions that are taxed so I don't know why you're blaming the carbon tax for emissions it isn't reducing that it doesn't even tax. Don't blame the instrument there. And Elgie doesn't say refined fuels, he says fuels. Fuels count as NG, and RPPs and coal/coke. Pretty sure he accounts for those. In eitherway, it's a way better analysis that Bill T's classic shoddy pinhole view of gasoline sales. (an embarrassment Bill)
mopled
45 weeks ago
You have left out something...the hidden taxation!
Where's the outrage?
"Public institutions such as schools and hospitals spent $18.2 million last year buying carbon offsets to compensate for greenhouse gas emissions -money that subsidized energy-efficiency programs of big industry rather than being reinvested in energy projects within the public sector.
Among the private corporations that benefited from such offset expenditures: Lafarge cement; forest companies Canfor, Interfor and TimberWest; natural gas company Encana; and Kruger Products, a manufacturer of toilet paper and related products. They earned the right to sell offsets to the public sector based on energy-saving initiatives.
The $18.2-million expenditure is the result of a provincial policy requiring public sector facilities to be carbon neutral starting in 2010. The program is designed to encourage energy-efficiency initiatives, forcing institutions to buy carbon offsets for their emissions through the Pacific Carbon Trust, a Crown corporation.
B.C.'s public sector produced 814,149 tonnes of emissions in 2010, 84,367 of which were exempt from offsetting, including emissions from schools and transit buses.
While public institutions say they support steps to improve energy efficiency, they assert that their money should be pumped back into their own facilities.
Lee Gavel, chief facilities officer for Simon Fraser University, said the $444,452 SFU spent on carbon offsets last year could have been used for research on fuel-efficient technologies or capital projects to reduce carbon emissions.
"We agree with the intent of the regulations to drive, through economic means, efforts toward greenhouse gas reduction," he said, noting SFU recently received a $4.7-million grant to produce heat and hot water from construction wood waste. "But we'd appreciate the opportunity to reinvest those funds to projects on the ground."
The University of B.C. topped the list of public facilities, spending $1.5 million on offsets.
Nancy Knight, UBC's associate vice-president of campus and community planning, said she can only guess that the sheer size of the post-secondary institution is to blame for its position on the list. The campus has 14 million square feet of academic floor space and 8,500 students living on site, she noted."
more:
http://www.vancouversun.com/health/Public+sector+carbon+offsets+subsidize+businesses/5070414/story.html
jimmy_laroux
45 weeks ago
@Ronald Pagan
David Ebner and Shawn McCarthy do. And it kind of seems like you do too, judging from some of your comments.
Good.
No. Nobody has shown this (per-capita reductions in emissions relative to the rest of Canada). That's the whole point. Emissions data past 2008 isn't even available.
I'm didn't blame anything on the carbon tax. That's just asinine.
He's counting fuel use instead of emissions. Does his analysis include emissions from natural gas production? Cement production? It might, but as I pointed out above 2009 emission data for BC is not available quite yet, so I'd be very surprised. Of course, there's no linked paper, so it's impossible to tell.
DPL
45 weeks ago
Gordo wanted it, we got it
Gordo wanted it, we got it
mopled
45 weeks ago
And Gordo wanted it because the IMF and the World Bank
wanted it and Gordo knows where bread is buttered and by whom.....he did go to Bilderberg last year along with our own beloved Peter Mansbridge last year. I wonder if that was a high point in Gordo's career.
"Why is there a movement to promote man made global warming. It is simple. Man is being blamed for global warming to help bring about a new world order, and global governance to combat climate change. Global Carbon taxes and global cap and trade being proposed will destroy the world economy and start to de-industrialize the world- wiping out the middle classes. These policies will destroy national economies and especially those in developing nations creating famine and food crises in many nations. Man made global warming is being promoted to justify a Malthusian society - a depopulated de-industrialized planet. They are justifying this by saying if there is less humans there will be less carbon and less global warming thus the planet can be saved. Man made global warming is another excuse by the elites and the oligarchs of the world to consolidate power and to create world governance with legally binding legislative authority over sovereign nation-states."
http://axiomatica.org/revealing-the-matrix/climate-scam
Social Climer
45 weeks ago
motor gasoline sales stats
Hi Bill
You say "There are many other factors that affect gas sales but one thing is clear -- selling more gas each year means greenhouse gas emissions are going up, not down"
You are not being entirely fair.
Motor gasoline sales did increase slightly between 2008 and 2010. In 2010, motor gasoline sales are now where they were in 1998.
Compared to population growth since 1998 (and I would assume a comparative increase in licensed drivers), motor gasoline sales are at the same level that they were in 1998. This would describe an increase in fuel efficiency over the last dozen years (if not less pollution), that has apparently nothing to do with the carbon tax brought in in 2008.
The impact of a 5.56 cent per litre carbon tax is not going to have the short term visible impact you are looking for in motor gasoline sales.
The jury is still out on this one, not "the gassy tale of woe" that you suggest.
What would you say if in 5 years motor gas sales remained steady at the same time the population (# of licensed drivers) increased? Would this be a failure of the carbon tax?
All I am pointing out that the metric you have chosen is one among many, and is not necessarily the most indicative of your main point.
If it is not, it couild still be true, as the Min. of Finance website says "The carbon tax alone could cause a reduction in B.C.'s emissions in 2020 by up to three million tonnes of CO2 equivalent annually." Maybe.
Is it possible for factors other than motor gas sales to make up the difference?
This question needs to be answered before you can proclaim that "The carbon tax pledge is still a lot of hot air".
Regards
Mark
mopled
45 weeks ago
Why bother...it's been cooling for ages
"Much to the galactic chagrin of global warming alarmists and their collaborators at the NY Times and Washington Post, a major peer reviewed study by an avowed alarmist found no global warming since 1998. This finding confirms what the skeptics have been stating over the last 5 years.When looking at the temperature trends, it is clear that global warming has actually been missing for the last 15 years. This has definitely been the case of the continental U.S. as the graph on the left depicts.
This chart represents the 15 years (180 months), starting July 1, 1997 and ending June 30, 2011. Per the latest NOAA/NCDC U.S. temperature data records, the 12-month period ending April was the 4th coldest June-ending period for the last 15 years. In terms of a single month, June 2011 was 1.6 degrees below the hottest June ever (June 1933). Source of chart here.
The per century cooling trend of this period, a minus 3.5°F, took place in spite of the huge warmth produced by two large El Niño events during this 15-year span: 1997-1998 and 2009-2010.
For the 10-year period ending June 2011 (July 1, 2001 thru June 30, 2011), the cooling trend accelerates to a very significant minus 13.0°F per century rate - again, per the updated NOAA/NCDC temperature records."
http://www.c3headlines.com/2011/07/speaking-of-no-global-warming-us-remains-in-cooling-trend-per-the-new-june-noaa-data-35fcentury.html
So tell me again why energy rationing is necessary?
Ronald Pagan
45 weeks ago
Inventory Reports
Jimmy,
If you look at the 2011 National inventory report you'd see that the per capita emissions from 2009 to 2008 actually dropped from 15 tonnes/person to 14.3. This is no doubt largely due to the recession but the c-tax will have some play in there as well.
Further, road emissions since 2005 only nominally increased in 2009 (in the order of less than 50 kilotonnes). Based on that small increase and population increases of about 4.5% in the same timeframe we can at least get a strong sense that the carbon tax is having an effect on road emissions.
All this to say, that gasoline sales are just a terrible proxy to evaluate the carbon tax effectiveness.
jimmy_laroux
45 weeks ago
@Ronald Pagan
You are right. I was looking for the BC only inventory, I did not relize there was a federal report.
Or maybe not. As Bill pointed out in this article, BC gasoline sales rose between 2008 and 2010 (roughly to the same extent, 4%, as Canada). Diesel sales dropped in BC between 2008 and 2010, as did sales of heavy fuel oil. These fuels are usually used to transport goods, and naturally fewer goods need to be transported in a recession. Fewer freight trucks, fewer logging trucks, fewer trains running, fewer freighters, etc.
It's actually quite fascinating how gasoline sales have been affected so little.
Ronald Pagan
45 weeks ago
It actually isn't that
It actually isn't that fascinating how little gas sales have been affected. First the carbon price adding only 5.6 cents per litre is not a strong enough price signal and almost any mitigation modelling exercise will agree with that. Second, demand for gas is relatively inelastic in the short term. People don't have a whole tonne of options to reduce their dependence on personal transport options, especially at that low c-tax price.
Over time though you will see slackening demand for transport fuels as people get more efficient vehicles, move closer to work, choose to drive less etc. My point is that this is all falling into the plan and far be it for Bill T to understand that and instead try to justify his ludicrously developed and ultimately disastrous and embarrassing Axe the Tax strategy.
jimmy_laroux
45 weeks ago
@Ronald Pagan
So the Carbon Tax is ineffective after all? Then we can agree that decreases in emissions in BC in 2009 were a result of the recession.
Or even at a high Carbon Tax price, I'd argue.
I assume you meant to write "Assuming a sufficiently high tax rate, over time you will see..." How high must it be to "get people to move closer to work" or to "choose to drive less"? Clearly far, far higher than it is now, and the numbers Tieleman quotes demonstrate this.
Matt78
45 weeks ago
Details
Raise the price enough and consumption drops. It just turns out to reduce demand for some things, like fuel, to get reduced demand one might have to raise the price a lot. 5.56 cents per litre ($25 / t of CO2) might not change behaviour, but 55.6 cent per litre?
As for the rebate, $115.50 per year rebates the tax for 20 000 km driven in a vehicle with an average city / country fuel efficiency of 10 L / 100 km. The tax might still be regressive, b/c it applies to more than motor fuel (more on that below).
As for effect, whether the tax, at $15 to $35 / t of CO2, reduces emissions is difficult to determine b/c of the number of factors involved. Looking only at emissions and population, it works.
The tax came in July 2008. A date range for which there is reporting on both BC's population and its emissions is 2008 to 2009. In that period, BC's population rose 1.8% [1] while emissions fell 3.3 % [2], meaning there was a greater than 3.3 % decline in emissions per person.
[1] (http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/demo02a-eng.htm)
[2] (http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/national_inventories_submissions/items/5888.php) (have to go to Canada, then Part 3 of the Report, then Annex A14.10).
Why does this conflict with what the article says? The article ignores population growth and only looks at one fuel while the tax applies to 20.
mopled
45 weeks ago
What a fascinating conversation,
debating how much pain the average car driver can stand. Eco-Sadism? Pretty psychopathic since there is no valid reason to continue turning the screw on price...it just makes the oil companies richer.
But then now we know that is part of the agenda.
The Banksters, the government and the oil companies squeeze blood out of turnips.
Welcome to Turnipland all you Eco-Sadists
werdnagreb
45 weeks ago
Gas prices lower now than in July 2008
What Bill fails to mention is that gas prices in mid-2008 were the highest ever. This had little to do with the carbon tax and everyhting to do with the price of oil. Gas prices are now starting to climb back up to those levels.
There are several studies that have shown that rising gas prices do have some effect on miles travelled (and therefore gas consumed). But in the long run, higher prices cause people to choose more fuel efficient cars. (I haven't looked for the links, but can find them if someone wants.)
So, in a sense, yes. The carbon tax has not worked. But, it is not a bad idea nor should it be repealed. Rather, the tax is too low as it is. To really change people's behavior, the price of carbon needs to be much higher (on the order of $100/ton). However, this is not yet politically possible (and would hurt many lower income people), so I would not recommend it. That being said, the current increases in gas prices are all heading towards oil companies. Wouldn't it be nicer if we could divert the money and do something more useful with it?
Bill does make one good point that the proceeds from the tax should be going towards alternative forms of transit.
pwlg
45 weeks ago
public directed taxes - Fair taxes
One readers response:
"If rich people are motivated to pay extra for new fuel efficient cars, those cars will eventually be available on the second hand market at a price that is affordable to lower income people."
Yes, very true, but just when they require expensive maintenance.
Designating taxes for specific purposes is a good idea, however, the public needs to be in the driver's seat on where the money goes rather than those who love feeding at the public trough.
One example worth questioning is the Evergreen Line. Just where is the need for this line? A bunch of politicians wheeling and dealing making promises to each other have decided on this line along with the corporate rail lobby - engineers and concrete merchants. It just doesn't make sense. Current boardings on bus routes servicing the planned corridor is pathetic. The route for the Evergreen Line is worse than one Glen Clark chose for the Millenium Line. The Evergreen Line will reduce service to the Expo Line transit users as did the Millenium Line did for Surrey transit users. Surrey will lose a third of its service if the Evergreen Line gets built. Where are the advantages here?
One needs to read the recent article about the troubles the Toronto Transit Commission is having and how its former CEO has criticised its decisions. What problems the TTC is facing is far less than Translink's, I mean RedInk's woes.
One would only wish David Gunn would be invited to assess Translink's operations and plans as our current Mayors are as inept as always to assess the bloated transit agency and its spending priorities.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/toronto/ttc-makes-dumbest-decision-ever-former-head-warns/article2086415/singlepage/#articlecontent