the problem with strategic voting

is that not everyone will be getting on the band wagon. It is distasteful to have to compromise your beliefs and vote for someone other than you want to.
Here in SGI, you have that very scenario. I wonder how many elections someone will be willing to vote strategically before they give up and realize it doesn't work.

Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca

Thinking of Voting Liberal? Read This

A quote,

"The Chronicle Herald reported on Tuesday that Montreal Liberal candidate Denis Coderre promised on Friday that a Liberal government would extend a deadline for Davie Shipyard."

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Vote2011/1238078.html

Quebec lieutenant

On January 22, 2009, Coderre became Quebec lieutenant of Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff.

The last thing anyone in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca wants is a Liberal win. With a substantial shipbuilding contract soon to be announced and the Equimalt shipyards strongly positioned to deserve this work, does anyone really want the Liberals to play politics AGAIN and re-open the bid to allow the, now Italian owned, Québec shipyard to snatch this deal and these jobs?

Click on The Chronicle Herald link and read the article. Remember that Coderre is the number one Liberal in Québec and if the Liberals win he will carry through on his promise.

Unfotunate System

By voting for the best possible candidate in my riding I may well end up electing the biggest ass in Canada as Prime Minister. That's party politics and the Canadian way.

crankypants

It's the way democracy works. Nobody said it was perfect. If they did they were nuts.

crh: There's also such a thing as strategic not voting, no bad taste.

Maybe

we should consider Soviet-type voting: focus on whom you DON'T want to win...and then do what you think will accomplish that...strategic? How about 'pragmatic'?

Canada's undemocratic electoral system

Our first past the post electoral system results in the majority of Canadians ruled by the minority, which is far different than most democracies that have a proportional representation electoral system. The only mechanism available to stop Harper is for those living in ridings where the Reform conservatives were elected with less than fifty percent of the vote in the last election, to vote for the progressive candidate that has the best chance of winning.

Thankfully, these websites were set up to help voters vote strategically. If Harper wins again, Canada is set to head down the Tea Party road that benefits the wealthy, builds more prison for the disadvantaged and the protesters, despoils the environment and cuts services. All it would take is, in the key ridings, for some NDPers to hold their noses and vote Liberal, while in other ridings, some Liberals would need to vote NDP. If just in this one, crucial election, progressives could put aside their partisan views and vote instead to ditch Harper, we could end up with a Canadian government that represents the majority, rather than the minority.
It nice to dream anyway.

Finally Some Much Needed Pragmatism From Progressives!

The naive idealism of the progressive vote, combined with the overall apathy and disinterest I've seen amongst many that I would put in this camp, has led to this unfortunate state we're in now: where a very smart, crafty party with 1/3 of the vote can nearly secure a majority in our Parliament.

Sitting on your ideals makes no sense in this election.

As a federal Liberal I've made a public offer to swap my vote in my riding (Vancouvoer East) for Vancouver-Quadra... I've offered to vote for the NDP incumbent, Libby Davies in Vancouver East if an avowed NDP supporter in Vancouver Quadra promises to vote for Liberal Joyce Murray. They both support enhanced focus on preventative measures rather than Republican-style punitive measures on law and order issues, they both support a ban on crude oil tanker traffic off the west coast (Joyce Murray actually tabled a private member's bill in Parliament on the matter in December 2010). They both oppose further corporate tax cuts and support the cancellation of the F-18 fighter jet purchase... and they are both the only plausible alternative to the Conservatives in their ridings.

For those of you bitching and moaning about the sad state of democracy if we have to vote strategically... is it really that far of a stretch to make subtle compromises among very similar options?

Until we get a better system of voting in place - either a PR or STV or some other more representative system - use your brain and not your heart in this election, for God sakes. Or we'll just end up with a Conservative minority and a bunch of whingeing idealists wondering how a single party can dismantle our entire political and economic system... a Conservative majority in Parliament and a virtual majority in the Senate? Yikes. Use your brains. Vote with your heart next time.

Reminds me of Ralph Nader's response after the 2000 elections in the US - when in the leadup to the election his mantra was that the Republicans and the Democrats were both virtually the same... then a year later he was asked if he still thought the same thing - Gore was travelling the world talking about climate change while Bush implemented massive bank deregulation, invaded a soverign country, withdrew from Kyoto, gave tax cuts to the wealthy... and Nader looked like an idiot.

I can't even believe that there is an adjective "strategic" that needs to be put in front of "voting"... shouldn't it all be strategic to some extent? Yeesh.

Proportional Representation

This archaic "first past the post" system makes for silliness like strategic voting. Until we reform the electoral system, your vote will almost never make one damn bit of difference.

ABC

Anyone But Conservatives - vote strategically. In BC that means voting for the NDP or the Federal Liberals. I'd much rather the NDP were in power federally - then we might get the Feds performing an inquiry on the illegal BC Rail sale.

From G&M comments:
"[A Few] Reasons not to vote Conservative:
• Taxed INCOME TRUSTS after solemnly promising pensioners he wouldn’t
• Annual deficit now $55 BILLION after promising never to run a deficit
• Harper refused to believe expert warnings that there would be a recession in 2008
• Then created a structural deficit of $20 BILLION before the recession by:
o Cutting taxes to corporations & wealthy – BILLIONS LOST
o $13 BILLION annual revenue lost due to GST cut from 7 % to 5 %
o $29 billion spent on fighter jets
o $16 billion spent on prisons
o $30 million to cut long-form census now billions of dollars of data is useless
• 2 billion CUT to cancel federal-provincial national child care program
• 5 billion CUT to stop Aboriginal people from getting national standard in services
• Tried to cripple democracy in Canada by canceling public financing for political parties
• Prorogued Parliament in 2008 to avoid accountability & loss of government
• Prorogued Parliament in 2009 to avoid accountability, a Parliamentary subpoena & a budget report revealing Harper has mismanaged finances
• Passed fixed date election law then ignored it in 2008
• Alleged to have bribed dying MP Chuck Cadman to vote against the Martin government
• Conservative Committee Chairs make Parliament dysfunctional www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvvZ_urI7-c
• Found in contempt of Parliament by Speaker and majority of MPs
• Appointed 27 Senators in 1 year including a 35 year old
• 4 Harper senior advisors charged with election fraud including 2 Senators appointed by Harper"
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/tories-try-new-tactic-in-edmonton-battleground-a-cry-for-help/article1985287/comments/

Yes and vote in Lizzy May

Though I'm not quite sure of her agenda, if it looks like Lizzy may win her riding, vote for her instead of the Conservatives as well.

Strategic Sites Use Poor Data

The main problem with most of these sites is that they make their projections based on 2008 data. However, 3 years can have a great deal of effect on a riding. Incumbents can drop out, scandals can occur, and whole ridings can undergo a socio-economic status switch.

A number of these websites, after realizing their mistake of overlooking the local politics of a riding, have actually rescinded their original recommendation. Take Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca for example. This is a riding that is historically a NDP/Conservative split. Liberal incumbent Keith Martin was originally a Reform member but crossed the floor. He was re-elected simply because he represented his constituents. Now that he is retired, local experts believe the riding will revert back to its historical patterns. Especially with third-time NDP candidate, and near MP, Randall Garrison running (who did not run in '08, thus the incorrect data). The only projection website to take this into account is: www.tooclosetocall.ca.

What I'm trying to say is, DO NOT rely on these strategic voting websites if you want to vote strategically. Research your riding and your current candidates. You may find that these websites are simply choosing the easy choice without doing their own research, and then you will end up splitting the vote.

1. Why are you citing Murray

1. Why are you citing Murray Dobbin's articles written before the LAST election?

2. IF one is to use polling data for making decisions on individual ridings, one needs polls from THOSE ridings, not provincial or national aggregates.

3. There is no substitute for meeting the candidates, seeing them perform in all-candidates meetings, and talking around -- even for "strategic" voters

4. Fortunately, the strategic vote in Esquimault Juan de Fuca is NDP -- randall Garrison stands head and shoulders above all the other candidates combined in terms of gravitas, understanding, ability to hear folks and state honest positions, etc.etc.

(And thanks to Realisticman for his citation. I somehow think he didn't mean to support Randall -- but he has!!)

Trolls and Spooks

Looks more and more to me like Liz May is a professional spoiler candidate, brought in by the Cons to shore up the vote-splitting in SGI.
At Catch-22 any discussion of alternatives (especially a surprisingly progressive Liberal) is attacked in the doctrinaire Tory-troll fashion. It is clear that they have operatives policing these sites and are attempting to herd us toward the Greens in much the same way CBC's VoteCompass/massive viewer poll did.

Troutsky

Are you trying to be funny? If you are, it's not working.

Project Democracy Data Sources

Mangrove, we at http://www.projectdemocracy.ca base our model on historical voting patterns combined with current polling data and overrides for unique riding situations. In 2008 we were 98.9 percent correct in identifying the candidate with the best chance of beating a Conservative. You are incorrect in saying we base our projections entirely on 2008 data.

As the campaign progresses we will continue to hone our recommendations and expect to achieve a similar level of success this time around. We encourage people to visit our site, check their riding and sign-up so they can be notified when we update recommendations.

By all means, people can do their own research as well. We offer transparent access to our voting prediction model at http://advanced.projectdemocracy.ca/ where you can change our assumptions as you see fit to generate your own predictions.

Thanks to the Tyee for providing a link to our site.

Harper gets booed

I don't think that was part of his strategy as Harper talks about his budget which he says Canadians liked very much, but fails to mention how he took 11 billion off the budget to keep the facts from the public. Did you see all those hits on the web as tweeter gets knocked down with all the talk about an election no one is interested in. Or so the Cons would like you to believe.
It was what got Harper booed when he told his audience no one was interested in the election. His audience didn't think to much of that comment. It is what the Cons would like you to believe. Harper sites the opposition as bikersome when he is busy trying to deceive the public,it is a matter of contempt. The Green party is more of a threat to the Cons, I imagine that is where the party will pick up some seats.

parties cld help

Remember "a coalition for BC"? Lots of rank & file union people and activists of various stripes got together to urge the BC NDP & Greens to cooperate to defeat Gordon Campbell. Alas, the party brass nixed it, and the BC Liberals got in, partly thanks to many split votes. No surprise.

Now we have yet another FPP election and we have to fend for ourselves. When will a non-CPC party have the chutzpah to negotiate some pre-election deals with other parties to save us the analysis (i.e. guesswork) and angst? i.e. we won't run a candidate in riding X if you don't run one in riding Y. It might piss of a few hard core back room believers, but I bet it would dissolve a lot of voter cynicism.

Until we get any kind of proportional rep, we'll be facing the strategic voting dilemma again and again. I don't hear much talk of any referenda on the system coming soon. But maybe electoral coalitions could speed up electoral reform, as well as keep the Harperites from majority rule. Not that we'll get any of that in this election :-(

Why I Won't Be Voting

"The Tyee urges you to vote"

The media always urge us to vote, but I suggest not voting is also a legitimate choice that sends a message to Ottawa.

It seems that we long ago abandoned voting for candidates in favour of voting against parties and their leaders.

So then lets have a ballot that reflects that reality: one that allows voting for or against each of the candidates (with a third default option of neither). The government would then be formed by the party least despised / rejected by the people.

How would I, living in Vancouver Centre, vote "strategically"? It appears we are stuck with the utterly useless Hedy Fry.

Not voting

Not voting is the worst of all options. The ones that get elected could care less whether they get in with 70% voter participation or 10% voter participation. As a matter of fact, the less people that show up at the polls, the more predictable the outcome, and the most favourable to the incumbent.

The strategists of each and every party can only depend on predictability of an outcome in any given riding if the voter turnout remains stagnant or declines. A mere 10% increase in voter turnout in a given riding could change the result only for the simple fact that this 10% becomes an unknown factor. Will they mirror the percentage splits of past elections, or will they have been enticed to participate to promote change and throw a monkey wrench into the works?

If the electorate becomes too predictable, the politicians become complacent. If we can take away this security blanket, we may actually get their attention.

Harper is the worst choice.

Harper was the first to think of a coalition gov't in 1997:

"[In 1997], [Tom] Flanagan and [Stephen] Harper launched a four-year writing partnership while they were repositioning Harper for his return to party politics. Their first effort was an article titled 'Our Benign Dictatorship,' which was published in the Donner Foundation-financed magazine the Next City. They argue that a coalition between Reform and the Bloc Quebecois was one way for conservatives to seize power."--Not A Conspiracy Theory, Donald Gutstein, 2009, p. 159.

Yet all during the campaign, he has accused the opposition parties of wanting to form a coalition, when they have denied that.

Harper again:

Mr. Harper said in 2004, "We can create a country built on solid Conservative values, not on expensive Liberal promises, A COUNTRY THE LIBERALS WOULDN'T EVEN RECOGNIZE, the kind of country I want to lead."--http://www.thefreelibrary.com/A+tarnished+image.-a0145337611

Sorry, I want to live in a Canada I can recognize.

Harper again, before he was first elected:

"Yes, I’m ready to support women’s human rights and I agree that Canada has more to do to meet its international obligations to women’s equality. If elected, I will take concrete and immediate measures, as recommended by the United Nations, to ensure that Canada fully upholds its commitments to women in Canada."
— Stephen Harper, January 18, 2006, The Harper Record (pdf, CCPA)

After he got in, he went on to abuse women's human rights for years. Now, he expects women to give him a majority gov't:
(The Globe and Mail, “Tories see majority in gaining women’s vote,” John Ibbitson and Joe Friesen, March 26, 2011)

Harper is counting on low voter turnout to either get him re-elected, or win him a majority gov't:

http://www.straight.com/article-385991/vancouver/peter-julian-stephen-harper-doesnt-want-you-vote

http://www.straight.com/article-384795/vancouver/stephen-harpers-secret-weapon-low-voter-turnout

So, here's the message: please vote!--@Rolf_Auer

Not voting

The Cons are doing what they can to keep voting levels as low as possible, look at their actions at the university of Guelph. They want those that believe voting doesn't matter to continue to believe that. Its their best chance for a majority.

vote swapping

leftrightleft said "As a federal Liberal I've made a public offer to swap my vote in my riding (Vancouvoer East) for Vancouver-Quadra"
This kind of vote swapping is very lopsided.
Liberals and NDP should only swap votes when trying to oust conservatives in both ridings. The NDP already holds Van East comfortably. This is what I hate most about the Liberals encouraging strategic voting. Logically they should encourage Liberals to vote NDP when the NDP is currently in 2nd place. They don't do this. Why?

voter discouragement

Another reason I think more and more voters are staying home is that globalization has been taking more real levers away from govt.

The policy discussions in this new reality are mired in window dressing & irrelevancies, and of course the MSM let them get away with this (see Richard Hughes on debate coverage http://richardhughes.ca/politics/free-ride-for-harper-where-is-the-critical-media/). So no wonder people feel discouraged.

I think our job is not only to keep key issues like "free trade" on the question list, but also to inspire voters, esp. youth.

neilsmith

Ummmm.. because the NDP is in 3rd place in BC?!

http://www.mustelgroup.com/pdf/20110414.pdf

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

Cool Hand

Uhhh what?

NDP is in first in BC. Liberals are last:
http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_april_13_2011.pdf

308 is not a good website to use. Nik Nanos calls the methodology "a photocopy of a photocopy of a photocopy".

Also I think the person you quoted was talking about riding-by-riding.

Mangrove

If you actually believe that the NDP is in 1st place in BC federally then I'm Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy all rolled up in one. :D

TODAY, Ekos' small sample size in another poll shows that the federal NDP is in freefall in BC. Do you understand the huge margins of errors in these national polls?

BTW, are you from Ontario? ;)

crankypants

Not voting is a legitimate if unrecognized option in a democracy. If you think, for one minute, that things would change if everybody voted then you're dreaming.

We could put in a poll tax on those who don't vote but that would not improve things either, just raise more money to be spent foolishly.

One way to possibly improve turn out might be to put an abstention option on the ballot then all parties might get a better idea of the job they are doing if they could find out the actual number of dissatisfied voters as opposed to thinking that all those who don't vote are apathetic.

If you have to hold your nose to vote then why bother.

Perspective from Québec

Salutations Mr. Kilian

English Canada is so divided that it is worrysome. Despite the fact that I am a Sovereignist I love BC, Vancouver and Kamloops since I spent more than a year in this wonderfull province in 76-77.

I would like to present you some statement done by Harper;

[Y]our country [the USA], and particularly your conservative movement, is a light and an inspiration to people in this country and across the world."
- Conservative leader Stephen Harper, then vice-president of the National Citizens Coalition, in a June 1997 Montreal meeting of the Council for National Policy, a right-wing American think tank.

There are so many statements full of bigotry and hate that he said, but I so not want to stain this great site. Here is what Mr Manning had to say about Harper;

"Stephen [Harper] had difficulty accepting that there might be a few other people (not many, perhaps, but a few) who were as smart as he was with respect to policy and strategy."
- Former Reform Party founder and leader Preston Manning on Stephen Harper in his memoirs.

We have vote strategically for decades in Québec and as Mr Kilian points out, the first thing we used to do is to observe the vote in the circonscription at the last election and how many votes were needed to ger in front of the unwanted redneck. We got to the conclusion that if you can get the youth to vote, you're gonna win.

We used different tactic to get the youth vote out, having a spoke-person that youth like telling them to go vote. In Region we even got buses picking them up. Good luck to all and may Harper fade.