Best Bet to Beat McCain?

As the U.S. presidential primaries wind down -- and Hillary Clinton still holds out for a miracle Democratic nomination -- strategists in both parties are consumed with the question of whether Clinton or Barack Obama has the better chance of beating Republican candidate John McCain in specific states.

The answer is ... it's complicated. But fascinatingly so, at least for political wonks.

It took a handful of electoral votes for George W. Bush to defeat Al Gore in 2000, and the fate of the 2004 ballot rested -- for about nine hours -- on the final results in Ohio. This time around, the map of red states (where the Republican won in 2004) and blue states (where John Kerry emerged victorious) could be redrawn. However, the outcome depends on who McCain faces.

There are five months left before the presidential election, and many sub-plots must be defined, including the effect of Ralph Nader's new presidential bid, and who the vice-presidential nominees on each of the two main tickets will be. The state polls conducted over the course of the past four weeks are preliminary, as the eventual nominees have not actually campaigned against each other. Still, they merit a discussion about the only calculation that matters in an American presidential race: getting a majority in the Electoral College.

There are some states where the status quo will not change. McCain will carry his home state of Arizona, along with most of the Midwestern states that usually vote for the Republican nominee. The Democrats -- either of them -- will come away with victories in places like California, Massachusetts and New York.

Still, many questions remain to be answered, such as the ability of an African-American to get the vote out in the Southern and Midwestern states, the eventual fate of the three key battlegrounds that usually define presidential races, and the states that, at this early stage in the game, appear to be defying the odds and undergoing a shift in colour.

Can Obama win in the South and Midwest?

Alabama. Barack Obama won this state easily in the primary season, but McCain leads him by a two-to-one margin in a head-to-head match-up. Rodham Clinton does a little better, but not nearly enough to enthuse the Democrats.

Arkansas. This is the only state where Bill Clinton -- a former governor -- actually helps the presidential bid of his wife. Hillary holds a 20-point edge over McCain, while Obama trails the Republican by 18 points. With such large differences, it is clear that Arkansas' six electoral votes will be decided at the Democratic convention.

Kansas. The Sunflower State, where Obama's mother was born, was believed to be one of the places where his candidacy would flourish. The latest survey shows McCain with a commanding 10-point lead. Obama's breakthrough in the Midwest will not begin in Kansas.

Kentucky. The Bluegrass State has picked the winner in every presidential election since 1964. Right now, Obama trails McCain by 25 points, while Rodham Clinton holds a surprising nine-point lead. This is one of the polls that are quoted by Hillary supporters who argue that she's more electable than Obama in the South.

Mississippi. The last Democrat to carry Mississippi was Jimmy Carter in 1976. Last month, McCain held a six-point edge over Obama, and a 10-point lead over Rodham Clinton. The price -- six electoral votes -- seems small to merit an additional effort from the Democrats, but recent experiences show that no area can be taken for granted.

Who will carry the Big Three?

Florida. A survey released last month showed Rodham Clinton with an eight-point lead over McCain, with Obama in a virtual tie with the presumptive Republican nominee. The fact that Obama is competitive at this point is positive for the Democrats, but Rodham Clinton is doing much better than he is. While not nearly as important as in the 2000 election, Florida's 27 electoral votes are usually defined by Hispanics and seniors, who provide the GOP with enough support for a victory. These two demographics might find Obama's message of open foreign policy and change as too much of a risk.

Ohio. Obama's loss to Rodham Clinton in the primary season led to the perception that he would be unable to carry this pivotal state in November. The latest survey shows him with a nine-point lead over McCain, who has obviously stumbled. All throughout 2004, the Ohio polls showed an electorate that seemed to be changing its mind every week. The drastic shift from April to May shows that nothing is crystal-clear in the Buckeye State. Obama needs to court the union households that voted for Rodham Clinton in the Democratic primary in order to start building momentum. Otherwise, the 20 electoral votes might remain in the hands of the Republicans.

Pennsylvania. Since 1992, Pennsylvania has always voted for a Democrat in a presidential election. The state is once again one of the key battlegrounds this year, and the numbers find Obama barely ahead of McCain, while Rodham Clinton holds an 11-point advantage. Obama's comments on small town Pennsylvanians clinging to "guns or religion or antipathy toward people who aren't like them" could end up being played and re-played in Republican ads, and the 21 electoral votes would be harder to come by.

What states will change colour?

Iowa. Since Ronald Reagan's landslide in 1984, no GOP nominee had carried Iowa until George W. Bush defeated Kerry four years ago. This is where Obama's ride started, and the fact that he leads McCain by nine-points suggests that the Hawkeye State is ready to back a Democrat again.

Michigan. At this early state in the campaign, McCain holds a tenuous four-point lead over Obama. Michigan has not voted for a Republican since George H. Bush in 1988, and the numbers certainly suggest there is potential for McCain to make the race closer, particularly if Rodham Clinton's supporters -- upset at the controversy over delegates -- decide to shun Obama.

Missouri. The Show Me State provided one of the closest races on the Democratic Super Tuesday, a fact that helped revitalize the party. McCain holds the upper hand against both Rodham Clinton and Obama, but the leads are small and suggest that there is room for growth. As is the case in other states, Hillary does a little bit better than Barack.

Nevada. After they chose Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter in 1976, residents of Nevada have never failed to pick the winner in a presidential election. Last month, Obama trailed McCain by six-points, while Rodham Clinton held a five-point lead over the Republican. While the race is close at this early stage, the Hillary camp has another survey to point to in order to bolster their claim of a truly national candidacy.

Virginia. No Democrat has carried this state since Lyndon Johnson in the post-Kennedy assassination election. This is why a poll showing Obama with a seven-point lead over McCain was a welcome development for the Democrats. Virginia's 13 electoral votes, coupled with a victory in another small state, could bring Obama closer to the White House.

Wisconsin. The Republicans have been shut out there since Reagan's 1984 win. This time around, McCain holds a four-point lead over both Obama and Rodham Clinton. If these 10 electoral votes go to the Republican camp, the Democrats will require an additional effort to boost their chances of victory.

Big stakes in The Big Three

As far as the surveys go, the only evident breakthroughs for the Democrats in the Southern and Midwestern states would be Clinton's victory in Arkansas, or Obama's win in Virginia. There might be room for growth for Clinton in Missouri and for Obama in North Carolina, but this area of the U.S. electoral map will not likely experience a wide transformation.

The Big Three states -- Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania -- provide 68 electoral votes. In 2004, Bush won two of them, sealing his second and final term at the White House. The Democrats need to retain Pennsylvania and win either of the other two states in order to have a legitimate shot at defeating McCain. Ohio appears within grasp, but the electorate is traditionally unstable. Florida appears to be much tougher, due to the Republican candidate's age and the fact that the Democrats did not actively campaign there for the primaries.

In other contests, Obama could end up winning Iowa, McCain could surprise in Michigan and Wisconsin, and Clinton would bring Nevada into the Blue State camp. The barrage of combinations would only lead to a victory for the Democrats if they can carry two out of the Big Three and hold on to most of what Kerry won in 2004.

The Republicans are gunning for Pennsylvania, in the event some smaller states wind up picking the Democrats. Of course, the two camps are bound to get a boost from their conventions, and await the public's verdict on their vice-presidential nominees, and their performance in head-to-head debates.

It is still early, and other states -- particularly New Mexico, North Carolina, Colorado and Indiana -- might join the list of battlegrounds, depending on who the nominees are.

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