Mediacheck

Pop Goes Real Estate Bubble Blogger

'Don't go!' say fans of Vancouver Housing Blog.

By Vanessa Richmond, 20 Feb 2007, TheTyee.ca

house_bubble.png

Has the bubble popped?

Text size:

Rate this:

Login/Register

Yesterday, the anonymous real estate blogger known as the Vancouver Housing Blogger, or VHB, went offline. He left this post as explanation:

Things have changed on the off-line front. I have to go now. It has been a lot of fun. I might be back sometime in the future, but I need to stop for a while anyway.

Ta Ta For Now.

(I opened up this thread over at RET if anyone wants to chat about this.)

People did want to chat about it. The VHB's blog often gets over 10,000 unique daily readers, according to blogspot's software. And as The Tyee reported in October, it's because it's one of the only sources of real estate "bear" (downturn) analysis in the Vancouver media market.

The VHB started the blog because even though some economists were saying that the worldwide real estate boom wouldn't last forever, he didn't find much of that kind of analysis in Vancouver media. Economist Robert Shiller of Yale called Vancouver the "most bubbly city in the world," for example. But the VHB repeatedly criticizes most Vancouver real estate media commenters for being realtors, developers, marketers and others who stand to benefit from a continued surge in prices, and refer to such factors as the Olympics and Vancouver's status as a "liveable" city as proof of the continued "bull" market, while ignoring or denying evidence to the contrary. The VHB's Friday post was just such an analysis.

Sad farewells

Usually, the VHB provides links, charts, stats and commentary (like about the number of properties on the Vancouver market and their average prices, historical patterns, comparisons between Vancouver and other cities) that have the implicit questions -- is this a bubble and will it crash?

His last post on Friday left no indication that a halt was in the works, so those who visited his blog on Monday morning expressed surprise. "This is very sudden and I am sad to hear that the mysterious VHB will no longer be making the prescient posts I have become used to reading over the past 12+ months," said a commenter named Mohican.

"Please!!! Don't go! She'll come round!! Just involve her more...She can do some graphs and you guys can research, together," said a commenter named Mighty Mouse.

In his own words

The VHB responded to The Tyee's request for information with the following verbatim comments:

On saying goodbye:

"I had a change in my non-blogging life. The blog is just a hobby, so I set it aside. I hadn't been planning this, but I knew the day would eventually come when it was time to end."

On whether anyone blew his cover:

"No."

On whether he'll come back:

"Quite unlikely, I think."

On when he'll buy a place in Vancouver:

"When the price is right. And not a day before!"

On real estate coverage in the mainstream media:

"I think the Olsen On Your Side piece last week was a watershed. But it still was noteworthy for being an exception."

On blogging away and conspiracy rumors:

"The blog was a lot of fun -- too much fun, I think. I really enjoyed the interaction with all of the readers. I started it as a place to post my charts and graphs and it really expanded far beyond what I had in mind when I first started it. It got carried away a bit.

"Also, people vastly overestimate how much time things took. It really wasn't hard to cut and paste a newspaper article or to add one or two more data points to an existing spreadsheet and then post the graph.

"Finally, all of the rumours out there are amusing, but false. I have not been paid off. I have not been threatened. I did not buy a place. I am not leaving Vancouver. I am not taking a job with the Real Estate Industrial Complex. (i.e. I'm not pulling a Cameron Muir!) The Internet is such a funny place about conspiracy rumours. Occam's razor applies here. I simply don't have the time or energy to maintain it now."

"Well good luck with that. If you can, keep the site alive. It will be interesting to go back and check the comments in the future. We are going to look like either prescient geniuses or ignorant boobs. I don't think there is much in between," said a commenter named Freako.

But not everyone is a fan. "If the blogger is right...then 1,000 people are wrong," reads Bob Rennie's quote, positioned right underneath the blog's title.

The big question: why?

His departure leaves two questions. The first, is why did he leave? In a post, Freako speculated that there were four possible reasons: loss of privacy, legal threats, boredom or a hacked account. Freako suspected it was most likely that his cover was blown. But the VHB responded, "none of the above. Just personal/professional life will be too busy to continue." See sidebar for the VHB's response to The Tyee's requests for comment.

The other question is where bubble watchers can now go. The Tyee ran the VHB's top five sources of information. "Read these five sites daily," he says, "and you'll soon be a smug housing bubblesphere know-it-all who can join the rest of us watching the biggest economic story of the decade, as the great big real estate keg party dwindles down to the last few drunk frat boys and finally settles into a nasty lingering hangover. And we get to watch it unfold slowly -- but predictably -- every day on our computer screens."

But so far, no one has launched a new blog to discuss it. As yet.

Related stories:

[Tyee]

Vanessa Richmond is the managing editor of The Tyee.

16 Comments:

Login or register to post comments

  • nightbloom

    5 years ago

    Abducted Bloggers

    The new and peculiar phenomenon of absconding celebrity bloggers merits examination in itself. It always seems to generate a strong response from the missing blogger’s community – and a lot of these blogs do actually generate their own virtual community. Is there a support network for bereaved readers of the dearly departed?

    One recent example is DudeTube, a popular gay-themed blog which had accumulated a huge international following (as well as an encyclopedic repertoire of material) over several years of daily updates, which was totally, suddenly and inexplicably wiped out last week. Possible explanations range from hacking and sabotage to a simple failure to switch over to the “New Blogger” format. But the really interesting thing about the whole thing is the fan reaction. The sudden disappearance of favourite blogs seems to create a hole in some people's lives for a time....corny it may be, but its apparently true.

    As for the housing bubble, I must confess to having succumbed to Schadenfreude long ago. As an over-educated debt-laden policy wonk without a hope of ever owning closet space in Vancouver proper, I hope all those latté-toting gamers, financiers, lawyers, drug lords, yaletown yuppies and corporate high-flyers get their come-uppance.

    I’m sorry, is that mean?

  • Alcibiades

    5 years ago

    mean? - probably

    Justifiable? -maybe
    Funny? - certainly.

    Is a depression caused by the disappearance of a virtual relationship a 'real' or a virtual mental illness?

    I can't seem to find it in the DSM IV?

  • BC Mary

    5 years ago

    Maybe VHB got switched into Blogger Beta Hell ...

    I think I know the answer.

    Maybe VHB threw up his hands and quit after Blogger insisted that we all had to switch to Blogger Beta where all our URLs and stuff would be preserved intact and the only change would be that "everything will be better."

    They lied. For 36 hours The Legislature Raids was stuck between the reliable OLD Blogger and the intractable NEW Blogger. Got that fixed. But I'm in the unlovely, out-of-control position of having a bunch of errors posted for all the world to see ... ha ha, oh, look there ... and no dang way can I find the EDIT button to get in there and, well, edit or delete.

    Like VHB, I'd "Delete Blog" and start over, too ... except for the awful question: will the same problems still be there with the NEW Blogger which for some reason now bills itself as Blogger Beta with the Beta crossed out? Advice welcomed: http://bctrialofbasi-virk.blogspot.com/

    With the pre-trial conference with all the Basi, Virk, Basi, and Crown lawyers next Monday 26 Feb.26 and the trial scheduled for 2nd April, this is making me crazy. No, I don't think it's a plot.

    I give this article a 3 (fairly helpful) out of a possible 5 stars.

  • BC Mary

    5 years ago

    Well, dear ones, you knew what I meant, right?

    Next pre-trial conference in B.C. Supreme Court, Vancouver, for the lawyers to decide on a trial date for Basi, Virk, Basi is 26 February 2006.

    http://bctrialofbasi-virk.blogspot.com/

  • ubiquitous

    5 years ago

    BC Mary

    Try wordpress. I had created a blog on both wordpress and blogger and found wordpress to be much nicer in terms of layout. Wordpress lets you import a Blogger blog - I'm not sure but perhaps if you import your blog to wordpress you could make edits.

  • BC Mary

    5 years ago

    Oh God, it's true ... New Blogger is out to get me!

    One more time:

    Monday, 26 February 2007 at 9:00 AM.

  • BC Mary

    5 years ago

    Ub, I'll try that ...

    Ubiquitous:

    Thank you!

  • bcneocon

    5 years ago

    Schadenfreude?

    Schadenfreude? Wait a sec, you can't afford to buy real estate in Vancouver and you're experiencing Schadenfreude? How does that work exactly? Last I checked prices are still on the rise, where does 'the joy in the misfortune' of all these lucky property owners cone in?

  • G West

    5 years ago

    Simple

    He gets pleasure from knowing that, sooner or later, the bubble will burst and those 'lucky' property owners - who at 70% of income to debt service ratios - will go broke. Either because values plummet or because interest rates go through the roof.

    I'd have thought you could figure that out for yourself.

  • bcneocon

    5 years ago

    Not gonna happen,,,

    ...but feel free to keep hoping for the downfall of your fellow man. You're such an inspiration for all humankind.

  • G West

    5 years ago

    about 80% of the world is falling down now

    You care so little for YOUR fellow man?
    Perhaps you don't understand Schadenfreude.

    And, in the end, your concern isn't much of an inspiration for anyone. That's always the trouble with neo cons, especially self-professed ones.

  • bentrider2010

    5 years ago

    Latté-toting drug lords & village idiots

    Quote:
    As an over-educated debt-laden policy wonk without a hope of ever owning closet space in Vancouver proper, I hope all those latté-toting gamers, financiers, lawyers, drug lords, yaletown yuppies and corporate high-flyers get their come-uppance.

    I am not ashamed to admit that I share your lack of sympathy for the gloating dimwits who have fuelled the real-estate bubble in Vancouver. The residential real-estate frenzy and it's sleazy, opportunistic cheerleaders have caused long-term damage to the quality of life in Vancouver.

    The Vancouver Housing Market Blog was a beacon of truth in the sea of lies provided by the mainstream media in Vancouver. VHB should get the Order of Canada or something.

    Interestingly, my interest in finding out exactly why a perfectly good city became so excrutiatingly fucked-up, was piqued by the January 2004 Tyee story Struggling to Stay in Vancouver.

    http://www.thetyee.ca/Life/2004/01/29/Struggling_to_Stay_in_Vancouver/

    The Vancouver Housing Market Blog provided the rest of the story.

  • DJT

    5 years ago

    I'll keep my eyes peeled, BC mary

    I'll be watching for the news on the Basi/ Virk pre-trial. Bet I'll find it in the back of the Sun (with a magnifying glass).

  • freebear

    5 years ago

    Burst Bubble My Only Chance!

    I do not live in the Lower Mainland (Campbell River), however I am hoping for the real estate bubble to burst because it may be my only chance to purchase a home (or a piece of property on which I can build a home)!

    That, or an earthquake, may be the only way I can afford to buy a home.

    So yes I do wish:

    "those 'lucky' property owners - who at 70% of income to debt service ratios - will go broke. Either because values plummet or because interest rates go through the roof."

    The same as I am happy for those looking for work because the shortage of labour means persons may be able to earn more money from employee starved businesses.

    Besides when you buy a house to then re-sell it later you are not really buying a home (which is what I want). Investing in a house is a risk, just like any other investment, so boo hoo!

    Besides, house/home prices are ridiculous anyway - $200,000 for a 30 year old house/home!

    I wonder how many 'dog' houses/homes are for sale out with leaky roofs, tired furnaces; aged appliances, etc.? And why would I want to pay an inflated price for that? So I can then find/borrow more money to actually fix the house/home!?

  • Working Memory

    5 years ago

    Worst is yet to come

    Unfortunately, bcneocon, G West is right, and so is bentrider 2010.

    It's great to hope for better times, but we currently just rolled over the top of the curve and are now heading for the bottom of the cycle.

    It happens like this in almost every Olympic region in recent history. The only difference in Vancouver is that we are ahead of the pack respective of the time line in other Olympic regions. That's not a good thing. It just demonstrates how desperate people here are for good news.

    When you come out a "have-not" scenario after winning, and I use the "win" word loosely, "The Bid," it makes everyone especially susceptible to frenzy mentality. Developers and real estate marketing companies know exactly how to heighten the excitement and leverage the momentum. They not only recognize the pattern, they create and manage it.

    Bob Rennie didn't simply "luck into it." He had a clear plan and he executed it with precision.

    In mid 2010 when everyone with Olympic interest pulls out and moves to London for 2012, we'll get our space back, along with a semblance of sanity, and that will be the time to buy, but be prepared because the window will be small.

    The only variable here is the mortgage rate, everything else is going exactly as planned. If rates go up in response to the U.S. trying to manage inflation, Vancouverites with big mortgages are doomed. Lenders like RBC, who also happen to be Olympic partners, will take back all those properties and start the process all over again. It happens.

    Don't forget too that mainstream news media, especially newspapers have great incentive to pump up the excitement. They already made a fortune off of Olympic real estate frenzy by selling full colour double page spreads to marketers like Rennie. The crazier people get, the more ad space they sell. It feeds itself until the market is saturated and the "bubble bursts."

    At some point in life you just have to accept that some people think ahead of the curve, and that they also have the financial means to follow through.

    I've been blogging about this for almost three years, and I'm getting ready to take a video leap to YouTube. I also wrote a book about it. The fun has just begun.

    Too bad VHB is taking a break at a time when he would have been able to experience first hand the results of all his hard work. He claims it was easy, but I know from first-hand experience that it's very time consuming, and if he isn't at least generating some revenue, why bother? Life's too short to keep buttin' heads with naysayers and not receive payback except for a pat on the virtual back.

    I hope he makes his way back before the bottom falls out and there's nothing to write about.

    Maurice Cardinal
    www.OlyBLOG.com

  • maestro

    5 years ago

    Boom Bust Echo;

    The only good thing about the Olympics is the high UN-likelihood we will ever see it in our midst in most of our lifetimes.

    The legacy will likley be a sober reflection on the "Hype" vs. the " Long term negative impact" of this Global Con Job.

    Like all mass - produced entities...the " Powers -that -be" see the same formula...and enter the Olympic Frenzy game with the high chance of winning...ie the developers and associated cling -ons.

    It "works", but at what cost?

    Re Real Estate...the book "Boom Bust Echo" was written over 10 years ago. It talked about the major shifts in demographics and predicted a glut on the real estate market.

    Nowadays, we see the current local demographic of school enrollment is declining in 54 out of 60 BC School Districts. School enrollment can also be interpreted as proportional to future " BUYERS "

    Add the (2)together, " Boom ,Bust, Echo " will be seen to be rather prophetic.

    B-O-T-H BUYER and SELLER beware

    • No best comments selected by an editor for this story yet. To see all comments, click the All Comments tab, above.
    • The discussion for this story is closed. No more comments can be added.