Opinion

How Grits Can Win

Ignatieff's road to victory leads through BC. Here's a map.

By Rafe Mair, 15 Jun 2009, TheTyee.ca

howgritscanwin.png

Popular west of the West?

The election is dead! Long live the election!

I believe that Prime Minister Stephen Harper will go to the people this autumn, mainly because he doesn't want to have to bring down a budget in early 2010 knowing that it will be chock-a-block full of bad news.

We in B.C. always think that our votes are critical but that's not always so. If a party can get either Ontario with a reasonable number of MPs from Quebec or vice versa it's a slam dunk. I don't believe that Harper can get that combo, however, so he will be heavily reliant on the Atlantic Provinces, the Prairies and B.C.

Likewise Ignatieff will need votes outside the "golden triangle" if he's to become prime minister and he knows it.

It's nice to be popular

High on Mr. Harper's never-to-be-mentioned concerns is that Ignatieff already is and will be more popular than he. A good part of this is because the PM has the personality of a discarded Barbie Doll and really is a hard person to like much less love. Unloved politicians can win -- as Bill Bennett showed Dave Barrett in their times at each others' throats -- but it's better to be liked. It's sort of like Damon Runyan's statement that "the race is not always to the swift, nor the contest to the strong -- but that's the way to bet."

Ignatieff has that "something" that Pierre Trudeau had. It's hard to define. Some people can, through force of intellect, or perhaps a better way of connecting with people, develop charisma. A good example is the speeches at Gettysburg on November 19, 1863 where two men spoke, long time Senator and Harvard president, the respected Edward Everett, and Abraham Lincoln.

As the most prominent orator of his day, Everett gave the keynote address at the dedication of the new national cemetery and connected the heroic struggle for freedom in the classical and modern worlds with the valor and sacrifice demonstrated on America's battlefields justifying the Union cause. He predicted a reconciliation that would lead to a restored and stronger Union. Everett's speech lasted two hours and was much praised in the newspapers of the day.

Abraham Lincoln, using two minutes and 272 words, said in part, "The world will little note nor long remember what we say here" -- a world class false prediction! -- finishing with the memorable words "...we here highly resolve... that this nation under God shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth."

The press excoriated his brief effort but we all know which speech stood the test of time.

Though Harper is no Edward Everett and Ignatieff certainly no Lincoln the comparison is apt because it demonstrates that charisma and large concepts compressed into compact phrases can win the day.

How to win BC

Let us suppose that there is a Fall election and that things stay much as they are except Harper makes up some ground in Quebec, meaning that both parties are competitive. (I leave out the NDP because except in a few seats they are irrelevant). British Columbia's seats will be important -- even, perhaps, the difference between election or not, majority or not.

Michael Ignatieff must do three things and if he does them he will carry this province.

1.  Get his political geography straight. He has to understand that B.C. is not part of "the West" but is properly described by the title of Jean Barman's wonderful book, The West Beyond The West. Any who doubt the truth in this should hearken back to December 1995 when then Prime Minister Chretien in coming up with a constitutional amendment formula, included B.C. with the Prairie provinces and learned plainly and graphically what British Columbians thought of that idea!

2.  Defend our iconic salmon. He must promise to beef up Fisheries enforcement by taking back authority over salmon as mandated by the Alexandra Morton case, ordering all fish farms to be self contained, giving a reasonable but not a long time for those in existence to convert. He will revive Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO), moribund since the days of the Mulroney government, and his distinctly un-environmental (O.K., Merriam-Webster, so I made the word up myself) Fisheries Minister, Tom Siddon. This is long overdue and despite British Columbian distaste for Ottawa and its rules, most here would welcome with enthusiasm a return to enthusiastic protection of our fish and their rivers.

3. Return a voice to local citizens. Ignatieff should do this by insisting, under the federal environmental jurisdiction, that all policies meaning a disruption of any river must be preceded by a public hearing process that allows citizens the right to debate the need for such a project; in short the merits of the project itself, as well as the environmental concerns.

Ignatieff will look at the provincial election results in B.C. and see that where these concerns were very real, the NDP won. He should know that NDP seats will go Liberal if their issues are recognized. (Those of a certain age will remember when Vancouver East went Liberal.)

A last chance for voters

There are risks involved to be sure. If Ignatieff wins, he must deal with Premier Gordon Campbell and many powerful provincial Liberals are also federal Liberals. He will have to choose between promising what British Columbians want and peaceful relations with Campbell. The first choice wins him 24 Sussex Drive, the second doesn't.

Mr. Ignatieff is a smart man and can do elementary number work.

It's been said (attributed to many) that in politics six weeks is an eternity. We can, however, narrow the federal election down to two possibilities with the nuisance value of the federal NDP in the mix. The next election will be the last chance. Those of us who want to save our rivers and our fish will have to save the province from the evil face of Campbell-style capitalism.

Evidently, British Columbians were unwilling to vote NDP to win this fight and stayed at home rather than voting. This time there will be no specter of a NDP government and true environmentalists, not those who've traded their principles for other considerations, will be able to begin the slow restoration of our province to what it once was and can be again.

Related Tyee stories:

 [Tyee]

30  Comments:

Login or register to post comments

  • BC Mary

    2 years ago

    A second chance ... ?

    Rafe wrote: quote:

    Those of us who want to save our rivers and our fish will have to save the province from the evil face of Campbell-style capitalism.

    In a nutshell, Rafe, that's what hurt so much about the May 12 provincial election. We thought it was our last chance to save the rivers, the ocean ... and then ... we thought that with Campbell's re-election, we had lost the chance forever.

    So ... if there's still a chance whose name is Ignatieff ... thank heaven for Ignatieff.

  • Grumpy

    2 years ago

    Sorry to say

    All three leaders of the 'mainstream' political parties leave me out in the cold. Not one fully understands the concept of 'peak oil' or the wholesale collapse of the US Capitalist society.

    The Liberals today, like Harper's Conservatives, are there solely for their political friends benefits. They care nothing for the 'common' man/woman.

    The NDP are throw backs fighting political wars of a different age and have about as much relevance today as a dinosaur.

    By accident, what is left is the 'Greens', Canada's party of protest and there my vote shall lay.

  • PatrickMcEvoyHalston

    2 years ago

    When people are in the mood

    When people are in the mood to turn incredibly sadistic, they need to find someone who can help exercise that need, without incurring guilt. This can't be done with Harper, because it is too easy to imagine him Canada's George Bush. It can well be done with Ignatieff, because, like Obama, everything he'll do will be appropriately dressed for the times. He'll be a monster, though, just like Obama will prove to be--someone who'll move us toward militarism, and will makr every warm, well adjusted leftie, flee for the forrest of arden, lest they tagged and bagged as traitors to the Nation. (We've all seen here what some NDP supporters would do to Greenies if they had the chance . . .)

  • Dan the socialist

    2 years ago

    PET was the last real

    PET was the last real liberal the liberal party had, Chretien was more centrist but Iggy really is centre right and not much different than Harper other than the religious ideology part.

    The libs are too far to the right at the moment for me personally

  • BC Mary

    2 years ago

    This loaded sentence ...

    PatrickMcEvoyHalston ...

    Quoting from your comment above:

    (We've all seen here what some NDP supporters would do to Greenies if they had the chance . . .)

    End of quote.

    So far as I know, NDP supporters would co-operate with the Greenies if they had a chance.

    Carole James went herself before the May 12 election to the Green Party leader and proposed co-operation. Her offer was rejected. Right?

    Co-operation could have helped to save the BC rivers, for one thing. It could even have helped the Greenies get somebody elected. Why would they reject that?

    Speaking only for myself (an occasional "NDP supporter", and a David Orchard Conservative supporter), I can tell you that I wish the Greenies were actually GREEN as well as more honest about their political gameplan.

  • Vortigern1

    2 years ago

    "Michael Ignatieff must do

    "Michael Ignatieff must do three things and if he does them he will carry this province."

    To carry BC, Ignatieff is going to need much more than that. Firstly, he needs Harper to be far more unpopular than he is now - Mulroney levels of unpopularity. Right now, Harper's polling 30%. Furthermore, if the provincial vote proves anything, it's that BC voters as a whole are basically happy with the status quo. There's just no evidence to suggest that a big change in voter behaviour is in the offing.

    Secondly, he probably needs there to be an NDP government in Victoria - the only circumstance in which the federal NDP vote really crashes. Only then would ridings like Vancouver East be vulnerable.

    Finally, let's look at the simple number of seats. Suppose the Liberals double their count in BC to 10, a greater share of BC seats then they've had since 1974. To accomplish even that, they would have to win in places that they haven't succeeded in since that date. (And 10 seats is a long way from carrying the province!)

    Simple fact is that, for Liberal strategists, the focus is likely to be on ridings the party has managed to win recently. That basically means Quebec (where the Liberals will look to ridings they won in 93, 97, and 2000), and swing seats in Ontario. In BC, they might focus on Kingsway, North Van, and Richmond, but they're not likely to spread scarce resources over huge swathes of the province.

  • seth

    2 years ago

    Faint hope clause for BC

    The destruction Gordon Campbell will lay on us over the next five years is unimaginable. Yet there is a way we progressives can stop him if we unite.

    The BC NDP is mess with a ineffective unelectable leader utterly incapable of organizing her party, her policies, her opposition and an election campaign. Her make nice parliamentary techniques resound with the voter and the hostile press as cowardly. Bloated Bill Good whips her ass in a one on one. She is driving progressives to the Green's who are utterly fed up with her and her current supporters. Until that party gets its act together, progressives can still take action.

    It is very easy for determined special interest groups to hijack political party's in Canada because the electorate is so disinterested. For inspiration look at David Orchard a far left progressives who almost beat Joe Clark for Conservative party leader. Look at how the Gordo and his media wing was able to wipe out Gordon Wilson who was leader of an actual Liberal party until Neocon mass membership buys defeated him. Look at how Harper and Stockwell Day and the religious right were able to hijack the ReformaTories.

    There are already lots of real Liberals in the BCLiberal party Ken Jones, Carole Taylor, just booted Gordon Hogg and myriads more still hanging on hoping a messiah will come along and save them from the suffering neocon yoke. If progressives start buying party memberships in large quantities we can easily within the year take back all Liberal party constituency associations and their executive, make massive changes at party policy conventions, force a leadership review convention, change the party name back to Liberal and elect a progressive MLA as party leader.

    The Neocon's can join Wilf Hanni over at the BC Conservative party where they belong.

  • politico

    2 years ago

    Iggy may be the next big thing

    But that is only due to his pandering to the same agenda as Harper.

    Rafe, lets be clear, the only thing Iggy has that Trudeau may have had is a thread of arrogance that permeates everything he does.

    Full stop.

  • Rod Smelser

    2 years ago

    Rafe's got some issue right, but the parties wrong

    Quote:
    (I leave out the NDP because except in a few seats they are irrelevant).

    Quote:
    We can, however, narrow the federal election down to two possibilities with the nuisance value of the federal NDP in the mix. The next election will be the last chance. Those of us who want to save our rivers and our fish will have to save the province from the evil face of Campbell-style capitalism.

    Rafe is forgetting that in the last federal election the NDP actually got two thirds as many votes as the federal Liberals. This is not a quantum distinction.

    He's also forgetting that Michael Ignatieff has not made clear his position on asbestos or tanker traffic on our coast.

    On the issue of Premier Campbell's hydro policies he has said nothing specific, but at the national Liberal convention in Vancouver he made it crystal clear he wanted the Premier to be re-elected, the same viewpoint that was expressed by his predecessor Stephane Dion as soon as Campbell took office. The notion that either of these men, as Prime Minister, would find a way to interfere with provincial hydro developments is quite unrealistic.

  • VivianLea Doubt

    2 years ago

    The Forest of Arden

    has been infiltrated and large swathes bulldozed in preparation for an environmentally friendly run-of-river project. There is nowhere left to hide and so now it is sink or swim together ...
    we are all traitors to the nation unless we can join that merry band in the forest stealing from the rich to sustain the poor...preferably colourfully dressed with elan and fervently committed to maintaining
    the concept of freedom, in the truest academic sense: that the collegial exchange of ideas and the sharing of insights and the absolute integrity to stand one's ground in spite of 'popular opinion' is the only real freedom.

    No more cliches...

  • UnCivilizedEngineer

    2 years ago

    Off the mark as usual

    Despite Rafe's horse-flogging rhetoric, the collapse of the BC salmon industry is hardly a Campbell-only issue. His gov'ts haven't helped the issue, but then again, DFO has jurisdiction over anadromous fish. Vis-a-vis, the federal liberals did nothing but watch stocks decline through the 90s and 2000s - don't expect this to even cross the radar as an election issue. Besides, Iggy's got a lot more in common with Gordo than Harper does, despite the majority of this site trying to label Gordo as a neo-con (Campbell is actually a classic neo-lib, hence BC Liberals not conservatives).

  • Luke Skywalker

    2 years ago

    Iggy...

    Certainly a helluva an improvement over Dion, who was not only a lacklustre/poor communicator, but whose "Green Shift" platform turned off voters en masse, resulting in the Lib's worst BC vote share (19%) in 25 years (1984).

    Under Iggy, the Libs have consistently place a very respectable 2nd place in BC federal polling, with the NDP falling back to the rear.

    Iggy should be able to recapture the north shore, Richmond, Vancouver-Kingsway, and be very competitive in Burnaby-Douglas and Victoria. In other words, the Libs will likely regain/consolidate their urban base as well as the inner suburbs.

    The Cons own rural and suburban BC and that won't change. The NDP also has its pockets of support.

    Quote:
    the nuisance value of the federal NDP in the mix

    I doub't many posters here will appreciate that quip, Rafe. :D

    Quote:
    all policies meaning a disruption of any river must be preceded by a public hearing process that allows citizens the right to debate the need for such a project

    Are you still on the Run-of-River IPP kick Rafe? That's basically a provincial matter and the feds will never get involved.

    BTW, it appears that the BC NDP has also abandoned their "moratorium" position on micro-hydo IPPs.

    http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2009/06/12/bc-ndp-libs-carbon-tax.html

  • seth

    2 years ago

    neoliberal

    is the formal term for the colloquial a neocon and has nothing to do with the Liberal party.

    You are referring to new liberalism or social liberalism. G West is likely to give you another spanking on this one.

  • Dan the socialist

    2 years ago

    Under Iggy, the Libs have

    Under Iggy, the Libs have consistently place a very respectable 2nd place in BC federal polling, with the NDP falling back to the rear.
    ------------

    lol

  • lynn

    2 years ago

    A political minefield

    The saving of this country, let alone the salmon, is now loaded with catch-22's.

    There is no difference between the BC Liberals, the federal Liberals or the federal Conservatives. They are all playing for the same team....and their jerseys no longer have Canadian flags embroidered on them.

    The intricate inter-connections between these traitorous teams are woven deep into the details of the BC Rail case.

    Strings are being pulled from all political and legal directions to make sure this case never comes to trial....in order to protect those who have sold this country down the road.

  • Rod Smelser

    2 years ago

    UnCivilizedEngineer: Right about Liberal's DFO administration

    ... the collapse of the BC salmon industry is hardly a Campbell-only issue. His gov'ts haven't helped the issue, but then again, DFO has jurisdiction over anadromous fish. Vis-a-vis, the federal liberals did nothing but watch stocks decline through the 90s and 2000s - ...

    This simple point seems to escape a lot of people, most importantly people whose interest in fisheries is mostly self-serving spin.

    For example, I just saw a piece in a business magazine in which the writer and his interview subject claimed that things had come a long way since the 1990s. Really? Is that why salmon stocks on the West Coast of both the US and Canada are at risk?

    Turns out the interviewee is interested in sports fisheries, and is quite happy just to get the commercial fishers out of his way. Once that's done, he really doesn't care what the overall stocks are doing.

  • Luke Skywalker

    2 years ago

    Looking at Federal BC Numbers In Depth...

    BC Federal Polling:

    Ipsos:

    Con - 45%
    Lib - 29%
    NDP - 15%

    ARS

    Con - 45%
    Lib - 26%
    NDP - 22%

    Ekos

    Con - 32%
    Lib - 30%
    NDP - 25%

    Harris-Decima

    Con - 30%
    Lib - 33%
    NDP - 25%

    And Threehundredeight currently has this BC federal seat projection:

    Con - 21 seats
    Lib - 12 seats
    NDP - 3 seats

    http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

  • Fiat lux

    2 years ago

    BC was also almost covered

    BC was also almost covered by the Reform nutcases not too long ago, so it would be an obvious repetition of the same.

    Ed Deak.

  • carfreed

    2 years ago

    maybe

    iggy is so iffy.
    the guy has already been so wishy washy on issues that one can easily give up.
    It will take forever to get more than a couple of Greens in the house.
    The Bloc are more credible than the others. They introduced the GE label bill and are more environmentally minded as a whole.
    This is why the COALITION was the solution. The goodwill was there as well.
    Too many Canadians just want the price of beer and gas to stay down.
    As the conservative seniors pass on, the game could change, somewhat.
    Meanwhile, scientists are tightening up on the predictions
    of just how much time is left.
    Me, I take the bus and ride my e bike and curse the traffic.

  • buccaneer bay

    2 years ago

    I would vote independent.....

    Or stay home and not vote if there was no independent in my riding........

    @ Luke....Lets have an election,lets have one every week,call it a stimulus package,polll clerks and election officers make pretty good money and from what I gather Harper`s stmulus money seems to have gotten lost somewhere between the pixels on the computer screen and 24 Sussex...........

    P.S. you are correct Lynn,there is no difference between them......

    The Good,the bad and the ugly,your guess is as good as mine as to whos who!

    Cheers-Eyes Wide Open

  • MichaelT

    2 years ago

    ...wherein Rafe tries to

    ...wherein Rafe tries to goad Ignatieff into fulfilling Rafe's river wishes.

  • cboo44

    2 years ago

    Iggy is just goofing around

    Iggy is making a complete ass of himself, doing the typical Liberal indecision thing. "Studying" the "Report Card" to death, humming and hawing whether or not to force an election, blah, blah, blah. Unfortunately Iggy is controlled by the Liberal power brokers who are entrenched in the Liberal Philosophy that "Talking is more successful than actually DOING."

  • ME2

    2 years ago

    Where do we go from here?

    Yes, B Bay, a truly sorry scene - a bunch of politicians acting just like we've come to expect of politicians.

    One would expect that a country with 33 million inabitants could produce at least one statesman per generation, eh?

    The last one we had was Pierre Trudeau. Sure, many conservatives hated him, and he could be arrogant, alright. But at least we knew what he stood for, and he didn't flip-flop minute by minute as the polls changed.

    How unlike this current bunch of chameleons, seeking to aggrandize themselves to whomever might possibly vote for them. And he didn't promise to do - or not to do - one thing and then turn around and do the exact opposite.

    Lyin' Brian may have been a sleaze, but he never broke a solemn oath made in front of the nation like Harper's right-hand man Peter McKay did to David Orchard, or like Gordo with BC Rail.

    And what about Paul Martin, who on the strength of his father's record we held such high hopes for - but who easily could have fit into Mulroney's cabinet?

    Is there any room at all in Canadian politics for an honest man to become the leader of a party?

  • anne cameron

    2 years ago

    Icky can win if....

    he gets a new face
    a new personality
    a new persona
    and
    learns to walk on water
    then turn it into wine (not whine)

    I think you missed the boat on this one, Raif. Icky doesn't even qualify as a joke.

    He has about as much chance as a snowball in hell. And that's fine by me...

    maybe he'll cross the floor and join the friends of Harpo. He'd fit in there just fine.

  • freebear

    2 years ago

    Iggy sucks!

    I do not (ever) support conservatives, but in no way would I support Iggy the Interloper!

    I do agree with theb conservatoves on one thing; where have you been the last 34 years Iggy?

    Talk about opportunism.

    He's looking for a feather in his arrogant cap!

  • Rod Smelser

    2 years ago

    A question or two for Rafe Mair

    1) If the Liberals are going to make gains in B.C., how do they win back all the Liberals who voted Conservative in the last election because they were terrified by the financial collapse? How does Michael Ignatieff appeal better to these right-wing Liberals than did Stephane Dion?

    If Rafe want's an example, consider the district of Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission. In 2004 and 2006 the Liberal candidates there won 10,000 votes. But in last fall's federal election the Liberal vote collapsed to just 3,000, less in fact than the Greens! These votes all went to the Conservatives.

    2) Assuming that this week's demands for enhanced report cards and a meeting to chat about EI eligibility will not in the end result in an election, how will Ignatieff retain the potential winner mystique that is the key, and only, ingredient in the improved Liberal polling figures? Once Harper calls his bluff, how will Ignatieff persuade the hundreds of thousands of "play the winner" voters that he's the next Big Man on Campus, on his way to 24 Sussex Drive, no problem, it's just going to be a while longer, stay tuned folks!

  • SharingIsGood

    2 years ago

  • morechatter

    2 years ago

    Is IGGY The Next Big Thing?

    Sure why not. He has an air of authority about him. A man of mystery as he never fully shows his hand. I like that. Who is IGGY for the workingman, or the man who works the man? Harper's all slicked up with black mud while Governments printing up money to beat the bank.

  • brg61

    2 years ago

    Tough fight

    B.C. never comes easy for the federal liberal party. Partly for self inflicted reasons; but also because we favour a more independent representative in Ottawa and historically the liberals were the status-quo.

    Paul Martin worked hard to elect more liberals here with some success. His gains were lost by Dion last year to the conservatives.

    My sense is that many of those lost voters are not big fans of Harper. (they would have been with him in '06 if they were) Many will give Ignatieff a close look. If the party can attract some credible, free thinking candidates they will be a player in at least 13 seats; including the 5 they hold. If the polls stay in the 30-34% range for Ignatieff's liberals in B.C. we will have a new Prime minister.

  • morechatter

    2 years ago

    It's Summertime and the Living is Easy

    Just wait until the fall, and its to bad we weren't having a provincial election because as it's a given they are goners.

    • The discussion for this story is closed. No more comments can be added.