On whether to prorogue

It has already been stated that if Harper gets to prorogue parliament he will start a political ad campaign till the end of January. I wonder just how much he has learned and will learn if he gets that option. Imagine a rejuvenated Harper a month from now having "won". This is a mess of Harpers's doing. The country needed everyone working together. He decided to play politics. This was an opportunity lost and history will judge Harper for not being up to the challenge. If the name calling fuels Quebec separation then that too will be his doing.

Just imagine the monster that will be created if he wins and gets a month and a half to propagandize the country and divide it.

Good analysis Michael Byers.

Democratic

In the tradition of representative democracy a coalition government is clearly legitimate. Harper should accept that he has lost the confidence of the House. When the coalition loses confidence then, and only then, should another election be held. The proposition that this is a "national unity" issue is a ridiculous proposition and a shallow rhetoric. It clearly reveals the Harper approach that lost him the confidence of the House in the first place.

Harper's Agenda ...

... is now and always has been to build a firewall.

He hasn't yet found its boundaries.

Without Quebec, he thinks he will establish a permanent Reform-Conservative hegemony in the West. The Rest of Canada (Ontario and Atlantic) is of little concern to him.

He prefers the Alberta model of petro-dictatorship over Parliament. He could live quite happily with Western Canada as a permanent colony of the US - even under President Obama.

He is anti-democratic and anti-Canadian.

Some Thoughts...

That might not be entirely correct. The BQ was initially formed by an ad hoc coalition of former Quebec PC's and Liberals headed by former PC MP Lucien Bouchard.

Today the BQ comprises democratic socialists from East End Montreal all the way over to Union Nationale/Social Creditiste types in rural bleu Quebec on the other end of the spectrum.

That said, one can view the BQ in Canada similarly as "Die Linke" (comprised mainly left-wing SPD'ers, democratic socialists, socialists) is viewed in Germany.

Millions in Germany also voted for Die Linke.

After the last federal German election, the Social Democrats could have easily extended the existing SPD/Gruene coalition to include Die Linke to form government.

In fact, the SPD doesn't want anything to do with Die Linke due to their oddball tendencies. The SPD decided to form a federal "grand" coalition with the conservative CDU/CSU. The SPD is the junior partner therein.

In a sense, the current federal situation is reminiscent of the first minority Liberal government of Lester Pearson after 1963.

IIRC, Pearson's finance minister introduced a poorly thought out budget/fiscal update that brought the opposition into an uproar, which threatened to bring down the government.

Pearson subsequently sacked his finance minister and brought in someone else who then tabled a new budget within a few months, which apparently appeased the opposition and the Liberals stayed in power thereafter.

Six weeks of Ad making for Harper

Well, Harper is welcome to spend ad money for the next six weeks because the Coalition does not have to spend one cent.

If Harper gets his way, all

If Harper gets his way, all we'll hear in the next 6 weeks will be the asinine propaganda against the "separatist coalition", to rile up people's emotions.

To put it simply, in Canadian custom the party with the largest number of members becomes the government.

The coalition now has the largest number, which is basically the same as if they were one party.

But..........

Ed Deak.

The GG has to follow Harper's advice

as far as I can tell. Harper is a bully and a dictator.He will continue to do business while Parliament isn't sitting and much evil can be done with Orders in Counsel.

That said, I don't like the guys running the show on the other side either. People are really uncomfortable with the idea of the Coalition grabbing power. Even though legal, it still smacks of a coup.

Since there has been no vote on the confidence question, this enables the Lib/NDP to raise a ruckus from comparative safety.

I wonder if it is enough to bring the Tory's to their senses. I wonder if it is possible to get Harper under a control.
I understand there were some pretty grey faces among their ranks over the last couple of days.

Harper visits the GG tomorrow morning.

mopled

The Governor General has to follow constitutional and parliamentary protocol and precedent - Harper is playing to the crowd - unless he can turn a couple of hanfuls of MPs into David Emersons his government is toast...and you'd better believe he will be trying.

I just hope any Liberal, NDP or Bloc member who meets with him has enough sense to wear a wire. I understand at least one MP has already turned down an invitation.

Harper has spoken

There was no mea culpa and no evidence that he has learned anything. Leaving him in charge till the end of January allows him to play all kinds of dirty tricks. He should do the honorable thing and go quickly.

Harper said NOTHING!

Once again Harper called for TV time, and then had nothing to say!
He had every opporunity to reach out and offer an olive branch, but he prefers hostilities.
On that note:
Everybody declares that they want parlimentarians to quit bitching and get on with the job of governing, Yet when this coalition reaches an understanding and will bury the hatches for 30 months, we get nothing but bad reactions?
We are being governed by mass hysteria induced by the paid-for-media.
CTV had the most biased coverage so far, constantly repeating Harpers "talking points" about the evil seperatists!
But they were not evil when they voted with Harper, how can that be?

Harper said All ...

... that he needs to.

Enough code phrases for the masses with plenty of projection for his mischief.

Wait for a big shoe to drop.

Thanks Michael

...for an excellent piece. I watch the political situation unfold with great interest, but also in the last few days a kind of visceral fear that some Canadians apparently don't understand the basic mechanics of our system of government.Maybe, as OilbertaRedTory just pointed out, code words are sufficient, with a few sound bites thrown in? I would surely have to agree that no power grab is taking place with this coalition - more like holding one's nose and wading in to do the dirty job of emptying the chamber pot...(how quaint, and kinda honourable, don't you think?)

I see it as the way the country will have to be governed in the future anyway. Mr. Harper's style of leadership is as old as dirt, and there are a million examples to show us why it doesn't work - the turmoil right now just the latest one. The many regions and diverse interests of this country demand a more 'representative government', as you put it: quite simply, the best and brightest minds and a multiplicity of viewpoints will be required to pull ourselves out of a global mess.Not to mention the problem of the poor shivering guy bedding down in the park near my (low-rent) apartment...

I wasn't making it up, WG

There were numerous constitutional experts on the radio this afternoon. It was explained that the GG takes "advice" from the Prime Minister. One of the GG's duties is to grant prorogation. Usually it is after a certain amount of work has been done, so the only thing different in this instance is that it is unusually early.

Sorry, those are just the facts, dismaying as they are.

What's that smell?

Wow! Finally a breath of fresh air on the Tyee. Things were beginning to smell a little fishy what with all the anti-coalition rhetoric from the local relics.

Michael you really shouldn't have run in Vancouver Centre. You would have been far more useful actually in parliament right now. Perhaps not in cabinet once the coalition takes pwer, being a brand new MP, but you certainly would have helped guide them during what is going to be a very tough time. During the last election Canadians clearly were going to vote strategically, as they have been for these last few minority governments. I think it was a mistake to take on Hedy Fry with the looming danger of a Conservative majority. The voters in my riding clearly felt the same.

I can only hope the boots really do get put to Harper. I expect the GG will not prorogue parliament, nor call an election. I expect the suspicion of that is one reason why Harper is meeting with her tomorrow. I expect at that point he'll try to make some "legal" move to remove her.

Interesting times.

Isn't it Ironic

The very man who complained years ago that Canada was not being run to his satisfaction is now the man who is responsible for turning this Parliament into a shambles.

Mr. Harper... we have seen your vision on how to govern a country and quite frankly, we have seen enough. Your time is over. You are damaged goods and in the same league of double-talkers and B.S.ers as Stockwell Day. To even consider that you are a member of the same party as Bob Stanfield and Joe Clark is a stain upon the Conservative Party of Canada. Hell, I am even beginning to think that Mulroney was better than you.

You had your chance and you blew it.

mopled

I'm not talking about proroguing the house - she will undoubtedly accede to that demand although it will establish a dangerous precedent - but that simply means this parliament is over and a new one with start with another Throne Speech. And then the budget (date confirmed in Harper's speech) which has to be put to a confidence vote.

No matter what is in the budget, if the coalition holds and there are no defections, then Harper has to step down.

At that point he can ask for the dissolution of the House and an election - at that point, as I pointed out, convention kicks in and she has almost no choice but to ask the coalition to have a go.

That's all part of the convention, tradition and parlimentary practice.

When I said he was playing to the crowd I meant that none of his arguments has any relevance to the events that will follow.

He has one chance to survive and that is to get some members of the coalition to do an Emerson. That's it.

further

Harper can argue for an election – but she is not obliged to grant one – after the Clark government was defeated on a non-confidence motion the Liberals were asked by the GG of the time if they wished to form a government; they declined, Trudeau came out of retirement and the rest is history….

Harper won't step down,

Harper won't step down, because he's a fundamentalist maniac, who can not be wrong.

"It is written.....!"

He can do a tremendous amount of damage in and out of office. One thing we can be sure of is that the generals will back him up and so will any US government.

Think about it!

Ed Deak.

Errr,what?

"Michaëlle Jean can, and should, be taking her advice from Dion."

"By unwritten constitutional convention, the Governor General calls upon the leader of the party with the most MPs and asks him or her to try to form a government that enjoys the confidence of the House."

Advice from Dion, why? He did worse in the election than any Liberal ever has. Since when should the GG take advice from a loosing party leader? Should the GG be taking advice too from Elizabeth May because she also lost?

Until the governing party looses a confidence vote it remains the governing party.

The Smell Test...

Putting aside all of the noise, this brouhaha all started with Harper's political partisanship in terms of withdrawing federal funding for political parties, removing the right to strike for federal civil servants, etc.

Not needed at this point in time. Just federal politicians fiddling while Rome burns.

And that's what galvanized the opposition to form their purported coalition within a matter of days.

Nobody seems to have caught their breath.

Again the problem with the purported coalition is that the Liberals received their worst wallop ever in October. Dion was an abysmal failure, the Liberals are in disarray, have financial problems, and are holding a leadership convention in six months.

And that's the stable senior partner in the coalition with Dion at the helm??? ;)

And then the listless NDP are abandoning their principles for some power inclusive of agreeing to the Afghanistan mission extension and the $50 billion in corporate tax cuts.

I wonder how that will eventually play out with their grassroots.

And of course we've got the oddball BQ signing on to the coalition deal with Duceppe apparently now having a veto over financial matters as reported by CTV News.

And this coalition will present stability in Ottawa???? NADA.

Methinks the G-G will grant Harpers' request for proroguing the house until
late January.

Let Christmas/New Year's pass and let cooler heads prevail.

And in late January Harper will present the budget with, what I would think, is an expansion of federal stimulus packages.

And then there will be the vote.

I understand that Liberal Ignatieef is uncomfortable about the coalition. Liberal Keith Martin stated today that he just wants the federal government to introduce a federal stimulus package.

Another unnamed Liberal MP was apparently in tears talking to Mike Duffy today just wanting this whole mess to be resolved.

Likely due to alot of heat that MP's are receiving.

This whole coalition thingy is just starting to sink in to Liberal MP's heads.

Methinks that when the vote comes around for the federal budget in January (assuming that prorogue is granted), that 15+ Liberal MP's will suddenly come down with the "flu".

re: unusually early...

mopled, there is a huge difference this time. Harper has lost the confidence of parliament. It is unprecedented and against the spirit of our democratic system for the G-G to grant a request for prorogation under these circumstances.

He has lost the confidence of parliament.

This is actually debatable

Until the governing party looses a confidence vote it remains the governing party. writes realisticman

For example, you might care to look at the recent example of Thailand. I believe you'll find the courts there just 'fired' the government.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/09/09/thailand.pm/index.html

Stephen Harper, in fact, should be ‘fired’ for lying in the House of Commons - and he is an idiot for not apologizing....

Stop the bully

Thanks for this piece of fresh air at the Tyee.

Harper latest mishaps is part of a very long series of bullying acts. His recent "mistake" that he did not even apologize for must be dealt with this time. He will most likely bully again if given the opportunity to do so. His bullying has to stop and the GG should act according to her motus of "bridging the solitudes".

Michael Byers

What a wonderful piece, Michael. I am most pleased to have seen it here and will print it and share it (with your name, date, web address and the Tyee banner) with as many others as I can find to read it.

confidence

I don't think it matters if an actual confidence vote has taken place or not. It is clear to everyone that Harper has lost the confidence of parliament.

It is clear to everyone that the only reason such a vote has not already taken place is that Harper used tricks to delay the vote. The non-confidence is evident and clear.

Emptying the chamber pot !!

As one who often struggles to find an analogy that works, my hat is off to VivianLea for offering this beauty :

"I would surely have to agree that no power grab is taking place with this coalition - more like holding one's nose and wading in to do the dirty job of emptying the chamber pot...(how quaint, and kinda honourable, don't you think?)"

Well done!

This was a clear and reasoned argument, free of the hysterical vitriol that seems to have consumed the Conservatives. Really, I think John Baird is on the verge of a stroke.

Byers' focus on the role of MP's, and the reality of 308 elections on election night, is a useful antidote to the idea of a "governing mandate". Even Bill Tielman seems to have forgotten that basic part of indirect, Parliamentary democracy.

One of the interesting outcomes of this affair is a renewed interest in the office of the Governor General. If we are going to have more than 3 parties in the foreseeable future, then perhaps reforming the GG's office would be more important than reforming the Senate. As many other western gov'ts have shown, any parliament prone to coalitions needs a credible voice, who stands above the fray, to play kingmaker. This is no longer the role for a political appointee. Indeed, what will happen if Jean says no to prorogation? She's a Liberal hack!

Perhaps a new way of selecting a GG, without partisan party politics, would be best. For example, s/he could be elected by the provincial premiers from a short list supplied by the PM or a Commons committee. This would allow the GG to be effectively separate from federal politicians. Also, it would give some positive (though largely symbolic) role for provincial power within the federal government, something not likely to happen in the difficult realm of Senate reform.

Just a thought.

Good Job, Michael!

Thanks for the thoughtful, informative analysis of the current situation.

It's great to have someone cut through the MSM's "spin" on what's going on. Your concise description of the nuts and bolts is much appreciated . . . .

Spot on

Spot on analysis. Too many Canadians don't understand how our own system of government works and the pivotal role of the MPs whom we elect.

But I guess that's what Harper is counting on with his play for time to mount a massive negative propaganda campaign.

However, if this crisis has already revealed his nasty side to too many Canadians, an aggressive attack-style campaign could backfire badly on the Conservatives by turning off all those who would otherwise tolerate their staying on at the helm for the sake of stability.

No one playing this game in Ottawa looks particularly good right now, because no ordinary Canadians wanted this crisis. But the Conservatives probably have the most to lose if they stand by their man while he spearheads a vicious national campaign over the Christmas holidays against the parliamentary majority that has made it clear it no longer has confidence in him.

The only good way out I see is a quick Conservative coup by someone who could persuade the Coalition to back down and let them govern in a more accommodating style reflective of the Tories' minority status.

the Crown in Canada

Harper should be dismissed (if for nothing else then) for placing the GG in an impossible position because of his refusal to obey Parliament.

Her role must be maintained as non-partisan and neutral. Is he making a move to politicize even this position ? Are we going to hear cries from the mobs to make this a popular/partisan elected position - like a President ?

Canada - stand on guard against election fetish.

Leger Poll...

Just like during the recent federal election, with Dion as the head of the purported coalition, the numbers are turning.

With only 29% supporting a coalition in BC, (combined BC Liberal/NDP vote in October was 45%), my first instincts last week seem to be correct.

If an election is to be held both BC'ers and Canadians want stability. And that unfortunately means that both the Liberals and NDP would likely get slaughtered if such a vote is held.

http://vancouver.24hrs.ca/News/2008/12/04/7624606-sun.html

Just wondering

Is it possible that the Harper Conservatives accepted the support of the Bloq during the course of the last Parliament to avoid defeat of a bill or initiative opposed by the Liberals and NDP?

If so, mightn't we characterise such a vote as the Government being in bed with the Separatists?

Michael Byers

EXCELLENT Piece.

Succinctly put...

In a minority Parliament the Prime Minister must have the confidence of Parliament to govern. The GG ought to ask Harper to test whether he has the confidence to govern rather than 'suspend' Parliament and thereby allow Harper and his Cabinet to continue to make Executive decisions (including Senate appointments, Judicial appointments, Orders-In-Council) that will affect the entire country. In my view this matter ought to be settled one way or the other asap, a prorogue to Parliament serves no ones interests except Harper and the Conservatives. If they don't enjoy the confidence of Parliament now, I can't see them enjoyng that confidence in Jan/February 2009, after a two month public relations campaign that will be attacking the Coalition members and the Bloq.

That being said I hold no illusions about the Coalition and its capacity to govern in a competent, creative, compassionate and prudent manner...time will tell how that Coalition turns out - but I wish the best for them for the sake of this country. If the Coalition takes power I am sure that Harper and the Conservatives will do everything in their power to disrupt it, to make it unworkable, and thereby force an election asap.

The results Luke didn't want to say

"Half of Canadians think Stephen Harper should step down if the Conservatives are defeated in the House of Commons.
...
About 37 per cent of those asked said Harper should stay, and this mirrors the approximate support Canadians gave the Tories and their leader in the Oct. 14 election, says Leger vice-president Dave Scholz.

In other words, support or condemnation of Harper breaks down along party lines, with Tory supporters generally content while those who don't normally vote for him say he should get his pink slip if the Tories lose power.

In fact, among identified Conservative voters, only 16 per cent feel he should step down in the event of his party's defeat, the poll shows.

Seventy-six per cent of Tory supporters would prefer Harper to stay, with eight per cent undecided.

The fact that all three coalition leaders were born in Quebec may factor into the West's disenchantment with Ottawa.

Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe was born and raised in Montreal, while Liberal Leader Stephane Dion was born and raised in Quebec City. NDP Leader Jack Layton, the sole Anglophone of the three, was born and raised in Hudson, Quebec, although he is currently the MP for the riding of Toronto-Danforth.

POLL RESULTS

- An exclusive Sun Media-Leger Marketing poll finds that if the Tories are toppled in a non-confidence vote, 43% would prefer to return to the polls while 40% would opt for a coalition.

Other results:

- In B.C., 54% prefer to go to an election while 29% support a coalition.

- 71% of Albertans oppose coalition, preferring election.

- Those in the east and central Canada are more open to a coalition, especially in Quebec where 58% want it.

- Ontarians are the most deeply divided in the land, with 43% picking an election and 39% preferring a coalition."

Election versus coalition

In fact, a lot of people who want the Cons to fall also want an election so there is no reason to believe that people that want an election are automatically Conservative supporters.

In fact, since a new election would not produce a Conservative majority the Coalition might be quite happy going with yet another election.

A new election would see either a new Liberal leader or the Cons running against a "progressive" coalition.

Either way, the Conservative chances would be much worse than they were in the last election.

That and the fact that the economic crisis Harper said wouldn't happen has happened which doesn't help him either.

I think the GG will prorogue

I think the GG will prorogue Parliament until January. She will not say no to Harper which is unfortunate as I think this coalition could of done some good.

If the opposition brings down the Government on the Throne Speech, I think the GG will send us back to the polls in Feb.

The cons will get a majority even with losing most if not all Quebec seats. The libs will still have Dion at the helm and will be lucky to win 60 seats.

French

Why is it that uneven Steven is all vitriolic about the separatists in English and then tones it down when speaking in French

this is over. the coalition

this is over. the coalition is crumbling and how can it not?
stephane dion as prime minister with jack 'the used car salesman' layton at his side and gilles 'i hate canada' looking over their shoulders with a wobbly stick?
give me a break. harper is screwing up by proroguing now. he should let this vote go ahead on monday and see how many liberals actually show up for the vote. the liberals have embarrassed and humiliated themselves once again. clowns.

prorogued

Is a dictatorship.

The Conservatives want to rule without being held accountable in parliament.

If Harper follows this path I assume we may as well crown him king.

Dictatorship?

Er...strong words. How is proroguing fundamentally different than just not scheduling a session of Parliament, which has always been the prerogative of the party that has formed the government?

That said, it is hardly consoling to fans of rhetorical consistency that Harper's plea for democracy is coupled with a move to rule by fiat.

WWID?

What will Iggy do? Bourque is reporting that Ignatieff is strongly considering NOT backing the Lib coalition, despite, I suppose, having as strong a chance as anyone of being PM in six months.

Come to think of it, a coalition of pinkos, reeling centerists, and obdurate contrarians could be right up his alley, having skillfully navigated the shoals of academe so lengthily and well.

He could, therefore, not just accept this coalition but seize the opportunity it presents to show that progressives can work together for their own benefit and ours, as opposed to their deeply ingrained splitterism.

Ron

Proroguing with the confidence of the House is completely different than doing so without it.

When the representatives of the people of Canada don't want you to govern but you do anyway, well if that's not a dictatorship I'd like to know why not.

On the bright side we have a small army and a lot of guns inside of homes. It may be the only way to get Harper to relinquish power since he may not do it democratically.

Causes of the English Civil War

"From 1625 to 1629, Charles argued with parliament over most issues, but money and religion were the most common causes of arguments.

In 1629, Charles copied his father. He refused to let Parliament meet. Members of Parliament arrived at Westminster to find that the doors had been locked with large chains and padlocks. They were locked out for eleven years - a period they called the Eleven Years Tyranny.

Charles ruled by using the Court of Star Chamber. To raise money for the king, the Court heavily fined those brought before it. Rich men were persuaded to buy titles. If they refused to do so, they were fined the same sum of money it would have cost for a title anyway!"

Fairness

IMO, if the GG allows Harper to continue, and THEN in January insists that an election be held, that would be a travesty of justice and fairness. Little wonder the neocons are drooling in hopeful anticipation.

If she denies the Coalition tomorrow, she should also be prepared to give a ruling on an election too, since nothing will have changed in the interim.

Mob

Some suggest that the coalition should rule right now, even going as far as to say that a vote isn't needed! I guess hearsay is enough! Another suggests that the courts demand it. Turning over the decision of who should form government from the people to the courts! Wow, is that what we want?

Another says that the representatives of the people of Canada, the Party leaders, should have the right to change the government just because they say so. Forget the people voting, if the party leaders say they want to govern then that's the way it should be.

Forget process.

Yet we also read that in a poll of 2,226 Canadians there is a majority for a new vote - not a coalition takeover! One would hope that this is the democratic favourite and not the hearsay and anecdotal choice.

Could it be that this glorious rainbow coalition is cracking and fragmenting and may well suffocate if someone doesn't use one of the knives they are sharpening for their foes but applies it quickly for a cesarean section?

Will the Three Québec Stooges fifteen minutes of fame be up before they have a chance to entertain us with their Sarah Palin-like spending spree with our tax money? The pseudo-intellectuals are frothing with justifications that are outside of established procedures in what is becoming a mad-dash panic that we hand over our Government of Canada Gold credit card. The Bloc has already jumped the gun and presented one huge post-dated invoice.

Yet, the biggest problem in the world today is reckless and deficit spending that has brought the whole planet a gigantic crisis that is costing us all.

forget process?

Realisticman, have you no shame - the process my friend is this: In order to govern, the Prime Minister (normally the individual at the head of the party with the most seats in Parliament - but not always even that) must command the majority of the votes in the House of Commons.

At the moment Stephen Harper cannot do that - this is the only important fact upon which all else rests.

There is one party and one leader playing games here - and it is a sordid spectacle.

If you prefer to turn this country into a republic I suggest you start your own party and begin a political campaign to convince Canadians to do so - otherwise, you ought to at least recognize this is not a 'takeover' it is simply the operation of the system we current operate under.

It isn't deficit spending that has got us to this sorry place and I'd suggest you know that.

Express referendum

Could we not in 2008 ask Canadians to solve the deadlock before the house resumes in January: "Do you support the new government coalition?"

No need for a long and/or expensive campaign. How much money does such a simple question has to cost and how long does it have to take to setup such a referendum? Can the GG not ask for this given the deadlock? Canadians should decide.

Should Canadians decide not to support this coalition, MPs would then have to support the house when it resumes. Should they support, the problem is solved and we have from this point on a mechanism to solve these deadlocks.

I thought the old Reform was all for this kind of consultation. No?

In regards to Harper carrying a different story in French and in English, most Québécois understand sufficiently english to understand that he is a basic hypocrite. Not much of a basis to run the House.

Gaulois

Privy Council Office
PCO - Quebec Costs for Charlottetown Referendum

$millions
1994-95

$34.6

Extrapolated and based on today's costs; approx $160 million.

*******

So, GWest, are you again suggesting that the courts should have the power to decide or are you now backtracking and saying the process in place is acceptable - to you?

How Harper can get out of his conundrum

He should start wearing a sweater vest again.

$160 million

This figure is %$% sick as we just went through an election and one would think there is a lot of reuse. No wonder we are so backward. Too many people are taking advantage and certain elites luv it that we cannot decide ourselves...

Please, realisticman

Simply READ what I wrote.

I'm perfectly happy with the Westminster Parliamentary system - I just can't have any respect for a Prime Minister who fails to recognize his obligations and responsibilities under that system.

There is no need, at present, to involve the Courts and I didn't suggest there is. I pointed out, in an earlier context, that a statement YOU made was inaccurate.

If Stephen Harper were to ignore the advice of the Governor General then we would have a Constitutional crisis and no doubt the courts would be involved.

He is almost there and his contempt for democratic parliamentary process is profound - but so far he is just on the side of legality.

Morality? Sorry, he lost that some time ago,

a question

Gaulois,

My friends in Quebec seem to think that Mme Marois' chances in the general election on Monday have improved significantly since a week ago.

Do you think that has anything to do with the Prime Minister's obvious contempt for the electoral wishes of more than a million Quebec citizens who voted for the Bloc so very recently?

Further, do you sense, as I do, that the opprobrium the Prime Minister has been heaping on the Bloc - a group he was more than willing to work with just a few months ago, is going to create a renewed atmosphere of bigotry and hatred in Western Canada toward the citizens of Quebec?

a response

It is clear that the spectrum of ethnic hatred is raising its ugly head once again as it always does when economies compress. Politicians of ALL sides have always taken advantage of these sentiments. Some are more obvious than others. Quebec and the ROC are not exempt from these forces.

I think that rushing through a coalition governement or carrying on with the PCC as if nothing has happened would be a very serious mistake, if not fatal. Some healthy collective therapy is needed here more than anything else. I stick to my story of the need of a referendum-express to solve the deadlock and provide this collective reflexion.

It is quite possible that the oucome would be just as divisive. But at least we could proceed from firmer ground.

Yep Marois standings have dramatically improved IMO and I think it is a fairly normal behaviour from this increasing ethnic hatred we are all noticing. Simply disregarding this coalition as illegitimate because it has the support of the Block has got to be the biggest slap in the face that Québécois have ever taken before. Don't you think? Harper has been a horrible bully and his behaviour needs to be properly exposed.

GWest

The problem with giving Harper a month to fiddle with his budget, is that no one knows what the original budget would have covered (or not covered). Now that "Canadians have spoken form coast to coast to coast", he can rearrange his budget to show that he has been "reasonable" all along, and that the "separatist coalition" was only trying to stage a coup.

Perhaps we could begin a list of lies

Lies the Prime Minister tells, facts he ignores or denies:
1) The Prime Minister has accepted and sought the support of the Bloc numerous times - he has written letters to the Governor General pleading (if only he could defeat the government in the house) for exactly the same kind of remedy the coalition now seeks;
2) He denies or ignores the facts, including the fact that his party, under leader Stockwell Day, encouraged a similar action (actually a coalition which included the BLOC - years before - again to use the same constitutional remedy for a government which has lost the confidence of the House;
3) He has lied and distorted virtually continuously relative to the make up, the staging and the role of the parties to the coalition and he has done it shamelessly;
4) He has lied about the character and effect of the per vote contribution of public money toward electoral financing;
5) His disrespect for the electoral traditions and practices of this nation includes his party's suit against Elections Canada - as a defence against the abuses his own party has made relative to electoral financing;
6) Instead of accepting the will of the House, he has subverted it and pretended that this is a responsible action.
7) He has, and is, giving aid and comfort to ignorant bigots who do not understand what kind of government and system this country has.

I could go on - but I have to get to work.

Fiat Lux

"It is written.....!"

He can do a tremendous amount of damage in and out of office. One thing we can be sure of is that the generals will back him up and so will any US government.

This was mentioned over in Vive le Canada as well. It is not entirely without foundation, given that Obama will not be his own man entirely in the decision-making about what to do with their looming depression.

And, while we think the notion of civil war is ludicrous in Canada, Frank presented the historical example of the English Parliament.

Combine Ed Deak's and Franks' nations, and it becomes fertile ground for a US intervention "to restore stability along the world's longest undefended border"......

Rick and Gaulois

I agree with both of you - We are in a real mess.

Even if Mme Jean decides not to permit Harper to prorogue - which she could legitimately and constitutionally do - this is very bad for the country.

Why didn't Harper just accept the decision of the House and move on?

Or, he could have stood up in the House and apologized and the coalition would have disappeared - his silence and unwillingness to speak up and say something, his arrogance and lack of concern for the future and the unity of this country is incomprehensible.

I just hope we still have a country a year from now....

gaulois

"WILLIAM JOHNSON

From Thursday's Globe and Mail

December 4, 2008 at 3:06 AM EST

There is a Quebec political syndrome. It inspired the decision of Stéphane Dion, Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe to seize power, dumping the Conservatives.

Is it coincidence that all three are from Quebec? Even Mr. Layton was born and bred there, graduating from McGill University. His father was a Quebec MP in the Mulroney government. ...

True, there is outrage west of Ottawa. People voted for a leader and a party, not a three-headed bait-and-switch substitute. The Conservatives won more seats than the combined opposition in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and New Brunswick. In Ontario, the Conservatives won 13 more seats than the Liberals, 34 more than the NDP. Now the people see their victory snatched from them under obscure rules that supposedly justify an illegitimate outcome."

That's Entertainment

Almost every opinion you read about this coalition govt/power grab is tainted with political bias- that is, I can smell the writer's bias and then the argument built to support it.

The most unusual aspect of this coalition govt- unlike many others, is that it is comprised of a party that is at worst separatist or at the least disinterested in the rest of Canada.

Ultimately, if Canadians are okay with Bloc as a member of the ruling coalition then it's the will of the people. That is unclear at the moment.

So the GG should let the govt fail under a non-confidence vote and call an election. The controversy of having a separatist party in charge of Canada is so incendiary that only another election can clarify this. Sure, Canada looks like one of those Italian govts, but it's gotta be done.

I was wondering and writing

I was wondering and writing about when the "problem" of all 3 originating in PQ comes up ? CONSPIRACY !!!!!!!!!!

RM you're still missing the official party line by not repeating the "separatist coalition" crap.

I spent 3 years in Austria after the war, listening to people crying how good they had it under Hitler. If there had been elections with Hitler running, both in Germany and Austria, he would have received a good majority.

Harper a leader? The guy is a creepy, phony puppet of the multinationals who are pulling his strings.

By the way, why is the other "leader" by the name of Campbell doing his best to hold up and kill the Basi/Virk affair? What is he afraid of?

Some leaders!

Ed Deak.

Ah yes, William Johnson - a fine avatar

Perhaps Tyee readers would care to know a little more about Mr Johnson. Such folks might also be cocerned about another particular Tyee poster who would quote those words without a little context.

At a news conference on February 1, 2000, William Johnson announced he will not run for a third term as the president of the English-rights lobby group.
Johnson says he will focus his attention on putting together the biggest constitutional challenge to Quebec language laws.

Johnson was voted president in 1998 in what many saw as a hostile takeover. His hard-line approach attracted many new followers while alienating many long-time supporters.

Johnson long labelled moderates within the group "the lamb lobby". When he was named president, many of those moderates renounced the organization. English-rights lobby groups in several regions of the province also cut their ties with Alliance Quebec.

Quebec's French-language media has dubbed Johnson an "extremist";
When Quebecers think of Johnson, they think of:
1)His campaign against Eaton's. Johnson rallied hundreds of people to protest in front of Eaton's downtown store, demanding the store remove its French-only signs and replace them with bilingual ones.
2) his decision - worthy of an Orangeman in Northen Irelans during the 'troubles' to walk in Montreal's annual St-Jean-Baptiste parade.
3) the widespread resignations of member of Alliance Quebec in oppositioin to Johnson's 'style'.

Bobby Peru

The "separatist" thing is a red herring. The majority of the people of Quebec vote for the Bloc, because it is the only party they perceive as serving the best interests of Quebec - a Quebec within Canada. And they are right! Neither the Cons nor Libs think of Quebec as anything more than a key element to get into Ottawa.

Now, if Michaëlle Jean has "balls", she won't allow a prorogation.............

In favoir of prorogation

I disagree with RickW even though I *do* support the coalition. I think the GG should grant the prorogation with the caveat that Canadians themselves should decide by referendum whether the coalition is legitimate before resuming in January.

The House is totally dysfunctional and there is no point resuming on Monday. Canadians should make it functional!

gaulois

since we're all on 'door watch' here I'll try to respond to your point about referendum politics.

I know you are coming at this from a positive and constructive point of view but I'd ask you to consider that government by plebiscite - which is what that might amount to - was the method a certain Austrian Corporal used to legitimize his hold on democratically gained power.

I don't believe you can change the rules in the middle of the game and I'd worry - as I did in the case of the Campbell/Plant referendum on aboriginal treaty rights - that it's a slippery slope the leads to real problems both for the country and minorities within it.

As a 'special' case in this instance? I'm not sure it makes much difference.

The severe depletion of good will towards Quebecers by people such as William Johnson and Realisticman and, I'd argue, Stephen Harper and western conservatives (especially) is not something I think is a positive development.

I'm not certain that a referendum will help that - in fact, perhaps quite the contrary...

There goes the baby

Out with the bathwater.

We no longer have a parliamentary democracy here in this country - The Prime Minister has subverted the will of the people - we are no longer a 'real' democracy.

Unless there are serious and definitive restrictions on the limits of this action we might just as well forget about calling ourselves a representative democracy.

Shame...Harper will now launch a four-front offensive of lies along the lies of a Karl Rove campaign for George Bush.

We are in very dire straits...

Harper taking away

the right to strike could be positioning in his favour in order to bring on the wage reduction for federal workers.

A Brian

Brian Peckford letter to Michaelle Jean: Coalition is 'outside the constitution of this country'
Posted: December 03, 2008,
...
As a former first minister of a Province of this country, a participant in the formulation of the 1982 Constitution, and as a Privy Councillor, I feel that it is my duty to provide you with my views on the present political crisis facing our country.

... the Leader of the Bloc Quebecois and his party do not believe in the continuation of this country as presently constituted. So it is a contradiction in terms to have a Government of this country whose very existence depends on people who do not believe in this country.

I would submit, therefore, that the coalition proposal is outside the constitution of this country."

Gaulois

quote"
"The severe depletion of good will towards Quebecers by people such as William Johnson and Realisticman ..."

I posted opinions that others make and your assumption is unwarranted. You are presumptuous and fanning flames you guess exist. Some of my immediate family are Québecers. Good debates are based on hearing all sides.

"In 1982, William Johnson was made a Member of the Order of Canada with the citation that his "daily reports from Quebec on social, cultural, and political affairs have given Anglophone readers new insights into the problems and aspirations of Francophones and have contributed notably to Canadian unity." He has written about the role that attitudes and misconceptions have played in the history of the Quebec sovereignty movement."

The Austrian Corporal

G West: I think we need to have more confidence in our democracy and the tools it come woth to make it work. I would think that our situation is much better (it is not totally incomparable) to pre-Nazi Germany. I although do recognize that we all share the same DNA, and the problems this come with. Our DNA also comes with the ability to seek solutions to complex problems. We can do it!

Prorogation official now

Our brave GG has apparently caved to the bully.
Harper has abused Parliamentary process by using a procedural trick to avoid a crucial scheduled democratic vote. Poroguing Parliament has never before been invoked in to dodge accountability.

A craven GG, whose primary responsibility is to respect Parliament and its stability, has decided the easiest way out for her is to enable Harper in denying and evading the legitimate will of the majority of Parliament.

Meanwhile, we'll be watching 7 weeks or more of deteriorating national unity, and increasing uncertainty in the economy and financial markets.

Thanks GG. You shall go down in history
for this terrible precedent you just set today. What a mess.

Bobb999

I don't believe that's necessarily the case although I'm not sure it makes much difference.

We don't actually 'know' what went down behind those doors - certainly, the length of the consultation indicates it was far from a slam dunk.

What I would say is this:
1) We live in a constitutional democracy - parliament is, and has been, supreme since the time of the English Civil War;
2) The monarch (or the Governor General in this case) is a figurehead only and the will of the parliament is supreme;
3) Therefore, except in a very few cases, the monarch's representative has to go along with the request of the PM;
4) The tradition, to prorogue, is generally pro forma - I'm sure she was distressed at the request but I think she had no choice;
5) Because the confidence of the house has NOT been tested in a vote - therefore, although it is tendentious, Stephen Harper still had the 'technical' right to direct the monarch to prorogue.

gaulois

I hope you are correct - the next few weeks are going to test your thesis sorely - I don't much like polls and I like referenda even less.

Particularly in the era of media concentration and saturation advertising, I'm not sure that we aren't more subject to manipulation than the German people were from 1932/33 forward.

I hope Ed will have seen our discussion and may weigh in with his thoughts about the idea.

Breaking Ranks...

So the house is prorogued. A throne speech/budget will be presented in January.

And then the vote.

Will Harper then have the confidence of the House of Commons???

Probably.

Liberal MP Frank Valeriote has come out openly opposing the coalition. Liberal MP Ignatieff is also reported to be against the coalition.

Other Liberal/NDP MP's are suggesting that if the January 26 budget includes a stimulus package they could support the Harper government.

And then this from Bourque:

With all of that beginning to play behind the scenes, it looks like Harper will have the confidence of the house in January afterall.

Harper's (Short?) Tyranny

Locking up Parliament to avoid an inconvenient vote; sounds like England - 1629.

uninformed voters

My own biggest concern now is that in the next election - probably late February or early March - there will be a significant increase in the number of Canadians who actually vote.

This would be good, except for the fact that most Canadians don't pay enough attention to what's going on to make an informed decision. They're swayed more by headlines and gossip than by issues or philosophies.

There are a lot of people across the country who do not support a conservative agenda, but want "stability" at any cost and/or want to stop the mythical separatist scourge, so much so that they'll re-elect Harper with so large a majority that he'll be able to do anything he wants for at least four years.

Good-bye social programs, women's centres, gay marriage ... the list will be endless.

'There are a lot of people

'There are a lot of people across the country who do not support a conservative agenda, but want "stability" at any cost and/or want to stop the mythical separatist scourge, so much so that they'll re-elect Harper with so large a majority that he'll be able to do anything he wants for at least four years.'
sounds good. thanks for making my day.
perhaps when this happens they'll be able to get down to some serious business and undo some of the terrible policies entrenched by far too many years of panty-wasted liberal rule, especially the 'justice' system.

No democracy in Canada under King Harper

As Jeffrey Simpson says, Harper has demonstrated why nobody trusts him with a majority. He's an ideologue and is interested only in shoving his own opinion down our throats.

So now he's become the Dictator-in-Chief of Canada, ruling without parliamentary support a la 1629.

He doesn't have a majority of the vote nor of the seats yet he refuses to face parliament and instead continues to govern.

I have a question Frank

What would have happened if the house had failed to vote to adjourn yesterday?

Wouldn't they have been able to keep the place in session continuously until Monday when the vote would have HAD to take place?

As long as the coalition kept more members on hand they couldn't use closure either, could they?

Seems to me Harper has set the bar for behaviour pretty damned low.

Litter in the GG's office!

"Nova Scotia NDP MP Peter Stoffer told CBC News before Harper's meeting that each member of the NDP and Liberal parties had been asked to sign a letter to hand over to the Governor General that all members have accepted the decision to form a coalition."

Maybe if they'd included nicely wrapped gifts of Gold Frankincense and Myrrh this would have thrown it. Bluster alone just doesn't cut it anymore. What can you do?

Jack seems determined to not enjoy the holiday season and celebrate with friends and family. Time to relax and get into the spirit, Jack.

"NDP Leader Jack Layton suggested that his party may even try to topple the government at the first opportunity — voting against a speech from the throne even before the Conservatives table the budget."

That's called pre-meditated Jack. Someone tell him to cool it and respect our Parliamentary traditions, please.

The Dollar's up:
Sal Guatieri, a senior economist BMO Nesbitt Burns.

“The political heat has been turned down a few notches for now, allowing the Canadian dollar to strengthen moderately after the decision,” he said.

G

I don't know if they could have kept the "parliamentary day" going till Monday or not.

I suppose its possible that some day we could have a 4 way tie in an election and the NDP or whoever with one seat more than everybody else will be able to count on right-wingers supporting them if they just shut down Parliament for 4 years.

I think the Coalition isn't perfect, the NDP made too many concessions but unlike the Conservatives, they have the majority of the number of seats, something that apparently is a technicality in right-wing political circles.

realisticman

The Canadian dollar is down what since the election? 25 cents?

That's not 0.25 cents, that's 25 cents.

GG Stomps on Will of Parliament

G WES, You wrote:
"...2) The monarch (or the Governor General in this case) is a figurehead only and the will of the parliament is supreme;
3) Therefore, except in a very few cases, the monarch's representative has to go along with the request of the PM;"
-Firstly, this crisis has proved she is not a mere figurehead. She has real powers and makes real decisions.
I find your point3 doesn't necessarily follow from point2. I agree the will of Parliament is supreme, and should be seen as such in the eyes of the GG. But the PM is not the Parliament.Nor does he represent the Will of Parliament.

Surely, in this case, the way to respect the will of Parliament - which means the will of the Parliamentary majority - was to reject the PM's call for Prorogation as the blatant ruse to evade the will of Parliament it is.
-It's true, the state of non-confidence was not yet official. But it had been made clear to her, in no uncertain terms, in a letter to her signed by the 3 opposition leaders, that that needed confidence had in fact been lost, and the 3 requested they be given a chance to make it official in the crucial scheduled vote, after which they were prepared to govern in an already worked out and agreed upon coalition arrangement.

-I think the GG has just aided and abetted Harper in stomping on the will of Parliament which is supposed to be supreme. It's an appalling decision.

Ms. Jean, as far as I can tell, is an otherwise intelligent, personable person. So it's a shame she will from this day forward be a despised figure in the eyes of so many, viewed as a GG who abused her office, and a betrayed our Parliamentary system.

CBC TV says that since the decision hit the news, they've been receiving emails 4 to 1 against, with many emailers expressing not just disappointment, but outrage.
The remainder of her tenure as GG won't be very comfortable for her, I don't think.

FRANK: I agree with you Simpson's so right that Harper has zero chance now of ever getting a majority. His economic statement proved he remains at heart a Reform Party extremist. His fuzzy blue sweater camouflage will not hide his true colours.
Plus he's completely alienated Quebecers this past week, while ironically serving to boost the dreaded "separatists" fortunes there, the same ones he's been screaming warnings about all week.

whiff of tyranny

"That's not just a whiff of tyranny - it's a full on onslaught of sulphur and brimstone."
writes G West.

I agree. The fact Harper was able to wrest a prorogation out of Michaelle Jean is scary. I’m not looking forward to the next few weeks of backbiting bitter fighting that will ensue before the coalition can out vote Harpers budget in late January.

Paul Martin

I wonder how he's feeling today after finding out the reason he lost power in 2005 was because he didn't shut down parliament until "cooler heads" could prevail.

I wonder if Harper's worshippers would have enjoyed that?

Bobb999

No worries!

It's a technical thing - as long as the House hasn't voted no confidence - and it hadn't, then Harper is still the PM. He still has the power to 'tell' the sovereign to end the parliament and the sovereign, if she values her 'head', can't refuse:
I realize it may be a seemingly technical thing but, it's still important.

This prorogation ended Canada's 40th Parliament - at least I think that's the number. We start the 41st with the Throne Speech in January - I'd defer to more learned folks to say whether or not the adoption of the Throne Speech is a matter of confidence - but I'm pretty sure it’s not.

So the next opportunity to defeat the government will come on the new budget - which is going to make plum pudding look like oatmeal.

If the coalition holds and the House votes no confidence then it seems likely that Harper will have to face the music then and - again if the coalition holds - they will get a chance to govern.

I suspect you're right about the Governor General - but I believe her hands were tied although I think the length of the meeting (these things normally are pro forma) indicates that she has also let Stevo know that she won't be his trick pony.

Frank makes an excellent point about 2005 - whatever one says about Paul Martin, he was at least a man of honour.

The key now is for the public - since that's the forum where this is going to have to be fought - rains down a shit storm of opprobrium on Harper for what HE has done.

Blaming the Governor General is a waste of time and energy.

All, respectfully, in my view...

Bravo!

Thank you for this excellent, accurate and ballanced article.

I know she had a tough call

I know she had a tough call but she set a very bad precedent.

There was no need at all for this. The only reason is is because Harper knew his days were numbered, nothing else.

The opposition other than the BQ will be finished now for many many years. Harper will get them. The GG has inadvertently created one hell of a monster and the opposition has not seen anything yet.

If they bring Harper down in January, we will go to the polls, Harper will get a majority (even though he will lose Quebec seats) and totally destroy the opposition, everything in Flaherty's plan and more (for good measure) will be added and we will have a one party state outside of Quebec for many years with Harper and his band of misfits running and ruining the country.

I really do not know if the Liberals will ever recover from this, the NDP should be ok and not hurt as bad but the libs are going to be finished I think.

I am not surprised as she let Harper break his own election law by having last election. Plus she is good friends with Harper's wife. I wonder if the GG really knows how a parliamentary system works?

Today was a very very very bad day for Canada.

I agree Dan

But I think the die, as it were had been cast - somehow or other the coalition parties (and I'd include the Bloc) have to find a way to work together.

Divided Harper will pick them off one by one - as much as socialists like you and I will hate the idea of making common cause with Liberals - (and I use the capital 'L' on purpose) I don't see as how there's much choice any longer.

For the moment though, I think it's important not to forget that this was just round one - the battle continues

Dan the Socialist

I don't think Harper would get a majority. He's not only pissed off Quebec I think he's lost support throughout the East.

As Gary Mason points out in the Globe, support for Harper and what he's done here is concentrated in the West.

Well, there's no majority for Harper in picking up the last few seats he could get in the West while losing the East.

What he has done and will be doing is dividing this country like never before.

Ekos Poll...

Con: 44% (+6.5% from election)
Lib: 24% (-2% from election)
NDP: 14.5% (-3.5% from election)
BQ: 9% (-1% from election)
Grn: 8% (+1% from election)

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/12/04/parliament-poll.html

And that 44% is majority government/landslide territory for the Cons. Unfortunate.

Has anyone considered...

...the danger of havng Harper still control the PMO and all the cabinet still making decisions whilke everyone sits and waits to see what happens at the end of January. I wonder how great the temptation will be to make political mischief against the opposition with Orders in Council and such. Or are we to think that all decisions till Jan 28 will be honorable and fair and non partisan. I wonder if that is what the Governor General expected?

I think the Harper gang is salivating at the power they have with nothing to loose but "government".

A question for Mr. Byers

As a lawyer, can you advise the feasibility of amending the standing orders to prevent the abuse of the convention of prorogation for purposes of avoiding non-confidence votes?

Hmm

I think the coalition should start budget consultations, draft legislation and name a Cabinet, schedule meetings with stakeholder groups and the premiers - somebody needs to act as the REAL GOVERNMENT now since Pee Wee's decided to suspend democracy.

How better to counter a tyrant?

Bush, Harper, Campbell

One bully down, two to go. Civil disobedience is next. Democracy must be restored and we can only restore it without Harper.

Another analysis for mars.

"And that 44% is majority government/landslide territory for the Cons."

you guys that want to get

you guys that want to get rid of harper should be careful what you wish for.
with a kinder, gentler conservative leader that is more difficult to demonize the conservatives could hold an overwhelming majority for a very long time.
love those ekos numbers, by the way.

Accordng to the poll, it backfired

but did anyone ever hear of a coup being announced in advance before? Perhaps we should get back to looking at what is around the bend.I think my surmise that this caper was a test of public opinion on the part of the coalition was correct. It may also have been a deliberate diversion from this:

Cap and burn Canada

North American cap-and-trade carbon controls, supported by all parties in Ottawa, could wreck Canada

Excerpt
"The U.S. Democrats’ cap-and-trade rule-making intentions are outlined, in detail, in two bills that passed second reading (with the support of Obama, McCain and Clinton) in the U.S. Senate in Nov. 2007, in the “Dingell-Boucher” draft climate change bill that was tabled in the U.S. House on Oct. 8, 2008, and in a couple of new U.S. laws that came into full effect in Sept. 2007 and Jan. 2008. These bills, in combination, leave little about the U.S. cap-and-trade system design to the imagination. They combine to establish unilateral U.S. Congressional authority to veto the level at which Canada’s initial and future national carbon quota caps are set, and require Congress to remove U.S. approval of or dictate changes to Canada’s quota levels any time it is in the U.S.’s economic interest to do so."

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2008/12/02/cap-and-burn-canada.aspx

Dangerous Driver

Thanks, Michael, for some very insightful
comments.

It's sad that so many do not understand what 'Parliamentary democracy' actually means.

I agree the G-G should not have allowed for prorogation, but when you are merely an appointed official, what do you do?

I only hope the Tory caucas collectively come to their senses and stage 'a very Canadian coup' by showing Mr. Harper the door. Question is: do they have it in them to do just that?

Many more people should read your comments and think very long and very hard about what is happening here.

Frank...

And have I got some insight for you. ;)

It's not everyday that we receive unsolicited video from inside Harper's war... ummmm... cabinet room in order to see what really goes on. :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xe-DFZA6pR0

On the other hand...

...can Harper wake up canadian democracy the same way Bush did (indirectly) by the outrageousness of his actions? And then who would be our "Obama"?

I thought this piece I wrote on my Canard back in mid October may remain timely:
"The second term of Stephen Harper : a quagmire in sight"
at http://lecanardreincarne.freesoul.ca/content.php?article.139

GG has done the "coalition"

GG has done the "coalition" a good turn.
Imagine the difficulties they would have had putting together a program under the pressure of major media attack -- finding and exploiting weak points, starting with those Liberals (including the scary Ignatief) who even at this moment haven't come clean on where they stand. Or my own MP , Keith Martin, ex-reformer, ex-alliance, ex-Conservative, and now Liberal who seems to be calling for a time-out.
Also, the pathetic performance by Dion last night did not augur well for effective performance in coming weeks if a Coalition were indeed installed at this time.
The opposition can now spend Xmas doing the hard work to put together a real workable coalition AND keeping the heat on the Conservatives to come up with a reasonable program. If the benchmarks are made clear and supported by the public -- and Harper falls short -- there will be publically supportable case for rejecting the gov't
If, on the other hand, Harper is clever enough to accept sound proposals from the opposition, fair enough.
The Liberals can sort out their leadership properly. And Liberals and NDP (and Greens) can search their souls whether the really want a coalition, and if so, the electoral strategy that will be necessary to defeat the Tories (starting, at a minimum, with agreeing on which ridings not to contest against each other).

give it up guys. it's over.

give it up guys. it's over. the polls show canadians soundly rejecting the 'coalition for canada and quebec'. today's rhetoric by the three stooges is designed to save face. by next week none of them will want to talk about this fiasco.

Hummm

There was one other time that a government used the prorogue power to avoid a defeat in the House...I expect that may have been the precedent Her Excellency the Right Honourable Michaëlle Jean had to respect when she allowed Pee Wee to become the acting dictator of Canada today.

Once before in Canadian history, as far as I can ascertain, a Prime Minister requested a mulligan from the Governor General to avoid a defeat in the House of Commons...

In 1873, as a result of the Pacific Scandal (when evidence that the Prime Minister had accepted bribes from the man who was building the Railway) Sir John A Macdonald lost so many of his own members in disgust to the opposition and no longer had the confidence of the house.

Just like Harper his scuttled like a skunk to the Governor General and saved his skin - only to lose it later in the general election.

Perhaps there are some members of Harper's caucus who are not polecats - but the fact they're standing by the dictator of Canada doesn't indicate so.

Anyway, we shouldn’t blame the Governor General – it must have been sufficiently embarrassing to have to watch Pee Wee cry on her couch for 90 minutes as it is.

Ipsos Poll...

Con: 46% (+8.5% from election)
Lib: 23% (-3% from election)
NDP: 13% (-5% from election)
BQ: 9% (-1% from election)
Grn: 8% (+1% from election)

Mirrors the Ekos poll posted above.

And again that's majority/ landslide territory for the Cons.

Coalition:

Support: 37%
Oppose: 60%

Governor General:

Prorogue Parliament: 68%
Accept Coalition: 29%

And 62% of Canadians are angry at the coalition attempt to take-over.

http://www.globaltv.com/globaltv/national/d
ocuments/CrisisTables1.doc

Bill Tieleman was obviously both instinctively as well as politically correct (no pun intended) with his observation in his previous article:

Orchestrated chaos

From the beginning, Harper and his corporate cohorts have had a calculated plan to destabilize Canada. What we are witnessing is the purposeful attempt to do so. An intentional set-up orchestrated to weaken and divide our country.

How else can the complete privatization and americanization of Canada occur under Mr. Continual Minority Guy? His drooling cohorts are getting impatient:"Not another damn minority government, Stevie?!"

I would watch carefully over the next few months if suddenly unforeseen and conveniently timed "homeland security issues" take center stage as this cowardly prorogation suspends and shuts down democracy in this country.

This is a truly fine article by Michael Byers... and a much needed one.

I agree with SharingIsGood that this article should be shared with as many others as possible.

Luke

Bill Tielmann's advice is always for NDPers to sit quietly at the back and not make any noise.

If 25% of our supporters (or whatever the number is) believe the same then good riddance.

Because some of us, unlike Tielmann and others, don't mind being in the minority when the cause is worth fighting for.

Look at the Greens, they supported the Coalition too and yet supposedly gained support.

A serious question for you Luke, do you think our institutions and laws should be subject to polling results?

If Harper were to come out and ban strikes, deny pay equity for women, demonize 23% of the country and set the political landscape to his advantage would that be okay with you if 46% of Canadians approved?

if it's broken ...

... stop wasting time pretending you can fix it.

Maybe Harper should quit the Tories and start an Alberta Bloc. Then the vote would be fragmented enough for the Greens to win some seats, creating a 6-way split, not counting the independents. More, if Danny Williams gets cocky enough from his oil riches.

When the storm's over, we need to get serious about proportional representation. How come no one's talking about that, eh? Biggest slice of pie (a.k.a. first-past-the-post)is anti-democratic, especially if the winning slice is only 25 or 30 per cent of the whole pie.

I have noticed in the last

I have noticed in the last couple of days that Steveboy keeps changing hair colour. Today, suitably grey for a fellow in charge and a couple of days ago way darker. Heck he had the limo window open and was waving at selected folks. A man of the people. BS It's a guy on life support. If I hear one more time how he advised the GG, I'm gonna gag. The PR teams are hot on the job doing their best to slag the other three parties. I await the speach from the thorne, which is a Vote of Confidence item. Then he will be grovelling for another election. The man has no shame and a bold faced liar to boot

Frank...

Public opinion is a very important facet in democracy. It should never be discounted by any entity.

Tieleman is no dummy and certainly knows that where there is smoke, there is fire. The old adage "Fools jump in, where angels fear to tread" certainly rings true here.

Too much analysis why to go into this arena again right now.

g west:

Incorrect. Ipsos' finding was that 62% of Canadians are angry at the way the coalition is attempting to take-over. (Inclusive of Liberal/NDP/Green supporters)

Very important distinction.

I doubt if anyone is still

I doubt if anyone is still reading comments, but...wouldn't it have been great if in the U.S., when George bush won a second time, if there had been someway for others to stand up and say...NO FUCKING WAY! What a different and better world we would have had.
Either there was no way, or no one with the balls to do it.
In the same vain, perhaps the world would have better off if Hitler had been stopped....
Congrats to our three opposition leaders for attempting to stop Harper instead of letting him carry on with his right-wing vision.

It's just a delay of the inevitable

If the coalition stays together Harper falls at the end of January.

If Harper stays in power, whether through election, or other MPs crossing the floor, his policies will destroy Canada. Someone who blatantly lies to the public, and sows hatred is clearly unfit to govern. We face an economic crisis, an event Harper, with his market fundamentalist policies, is not equipped to handle. I suppose, once Canada is in tatters, people may begin to realize their mistake in providing him support.

I was surprised the GG placed technicality over principle, especially given Harper's behavior. But really the only solution now is to fight on. In the face of bullying, lies and hatred, the only response is to persevere.

Bill Tieleman says thanks - but now for the reckoning

There are now three separate polls out from three different polling companies - all with the same results - the Coalition Government idea is opposed by the clear majority of Canadians.

If an election were held today, Stephen Harper and the Conservatives would easily win a majority government.

To Luke Skywalker and others - thanks for the kind words. I've been around awhile and like to think I have decent political instincts. Certainly enough to know that this plan was not going to fly.

To Frank - my friend, I've been in the minority as a social democrat most of my life.

You are the one arguing for working with the federal Liberals who have done more damage to Canadian social programs in the past 20 years than any other party, period. You are arguing to work with the separatists who want to break up Canada.

And you are the one arguing for a coalition of the so-called 62% who didn't vote Conservative - not me.

My position has been very clear - however, noble the goals, the approach taken by the Liberal-NDP coalition, supported by the Bloq Quebecois, was wrong and was inevitably going to be seen as wrong by a majority of the public.

The Governor-General has granted Harper an extended leave from Parliament, which also has the approval of most Canadians who were sickened by the last week's events - sickened, I might add, by the behaviour of all parties.

Now there will be a day of reckoning for the Liberals and the NDP. It may come through an election in early winter, it may be later.

But a heavy price will likely be paid and there is no joy in my saying it - because that was my warning from the start.

Watch for a new article Friday, either here or on my blog or both.

Rocky road ahead

If these polls are accurate in the ROC, I think we have a *major* breakdown on the horizon, starting as early as Monday with the election of a majority PQ Marois government.

Think about this

Although I think the Coalition would have been a good thing, I think they're out of the running now, and that thinking of a no confidence vote in January is unwise.

My first reason for this is that in the next seven weeks, Harper will successfully portray himself as the embodiment of sweetness and light, aided by his cheerleading MSM and taking advantage of the predictably short memory of the sheeples.

He will present a budget so full of candy for everyone, only a grinch could turn it down, and you can be certain there'll be plenty of "leaks" beforehand about the goodies to come.

In their hubris, probably spurred by a perceived need for haste, the NDP blundered by agreeing to the Corporate tax cuts, thereby neutering its traditional "Corporate Welfare Bums" strategy. And you can be sure - in this budget anyway - Harper won't give them a wedge issue by attacking Social Programs.

The last and critical issue is Dion, whom Harper has correctly counted as one of his Ace cards. This man has demonstrated little ability to lead, and hasn't the confidence of either his Party or the Country.

A no confidence vote in January will only anger the electorate, and the Coalition will be unstable anyway, with defections being talked about even now, and the chances of such happening becoming more likely.

Better to wait until the Libs have a new leader, and he / she is proven capable. Then, I think, the chances of success will be far better.

Harper being who he is, the chance WILL come.

Prime Minister Dion

It does have a pleasant ring to it, millions of Americans will think that he's Celine's dad. But that just means more press.

Let's all write to this great Canadian and tell him to stay on. Tear up that resignation letter and let bygones be bygones. Canada needs Stéphane Dion. Hang in there Stephie!

In the interests of not offending our francophone's sensitivities and vice versa the coalition should perhaps now conduct its public persona in that other great language of the Americas, Spanish.

Viva La Coalitión has a catchy ring to it. Viva Dión works OK too. Branding is paramount these days.

There is one question that seems worth considering, that is whether a perhaps unwanted precedent is being set. This popped up on-line:

"Imagine if you will, if these professors were confronted with a situation in which their favorite Party, the NDP, had won more than 140 seats in the House of Commons. Imagine if the NDP had double the seat total of the Conservatives. Imagine what would happen if the Conservatives had then gotten together with two other parties, one of them being an Alberta Only party and then perhaps the Christian Heritage Party, one that would be supporting Capital Punishment and Opposing Abortion. Imagine if the Conservative Party with their right of centre coalition partners including a party dedicated to the Independence of Alberta. Imagine if the Conservatives signed a document with these smaller parties and presented that to the Governor General and said, "We have ourselves a legitimate, constitutional, coalition of elected members who have lost confidence in the government led by Jack Layton. He must face the house. He must face defeat, and we must now come to you Governor General, your excellency and pick up the keys to a new government."

Can you imagine the professors of our elite universities going on the National TV Newscasts, saying "This coalition is very much in keeping with Constitutional Values, Canadian values and there is no reason to go back to the polls. These coalition partners ought to be given a chance to make government work.

If you can imagine the professors giving their intellectual and moral consent to that, then you can also imagine Pigs flying, Cows barking, and Cockroaches coming up with a cure for cancer."

http://www.640toronto.com/StationShared/BlogAdler.aspx

Bill Tieleman is courageous to write against the coup schemers, knowing full well that his postulations would meet with substantial opposition from his contemporaries. The short sighted clamour of the plotters and their discordant acolytes seems to have fizzled quicker than a Warhol fame experience. Perhaps it will smolder over the holidays and flicker to life next year but, contrary to my sympathies with his philosophical bedrock, this time my money is on Tieleman's long-sighted viewpoint.

What an utter waste of both time and money...

So first we had a pointless and costly election that was a blatant power-grab by Harper while Canadians were unprepared.

Then the government sat down for two weeks to get to work, during which time Harper's Conservatives came up with this blatant shock doctrine-esque "economy in the shitter, let's push through what we can" budget. (very Bush government neocon - Harper's been paying attention)

Then the majority of representatives for the Canadian people said, "Actually, no, that's not cool, you can't do that. As a group, we're bigger than you and we'll work together for what the majority of Canadians really want."

At which point Harper ran to a figurehead of the British crown and asked for - and received - a 7 week regroup to dig his head out of his ass and his foot out of his mouth in an in-camera meeting (ironic, after the NDP wiretapping).

How much (or little, to be more precise) work is actually getting done in the Canadian Parliament?
How does 33% of the popular vote constitute a "mandate", as Harper is referring to it?
How does a group of people planning to work together constitute a "crisis" instead of a "bold new era"? (and I ask this question primarily of CanWest Global, the organization that's been spewing this "crisis" crap for the last several days, thus unnecessarily panicking instead of energizing the electorate)
How much have we spent on elections over the last few years?
How much are these guys getting paid?
Did the Conservatives really think they were going to just slip this by everyone?

Remember everyone: as Harper knows, there's no I in "team", but there is an M and an E.

Bill

Your points and political instincts may be accurate - those facts, under the current circumstances, amount to little more than an acknowledgment that truth and rules have no currency in this country any longer.

I think that's something your next column should deal with - because in the end, it's more important than who was correct in their instincts.

We have sunk to the level of a Bush autocracy and that is a sad thing.

You may have been correct but surrendering principles to expediency wasn't right.

The coalition may fail to bring down Harper but at some point people who care about truth and goodwill ARE going to have to unite in some way to end the tyranny of lies and hatred this man has brought to the stage.

Whatever you say about Paul Martin and Jean Chretien (and I agree with you about their legacy for ordinary Canadians) neither of them stooped to the levels of corruption of Brian Mulroney and none of them (Mulroney included) have behaved toward the rules and traditions of Parliamentary Democracy as Stephen Harper has.

Anarchy is a bad thing - no matter how many ignorant people think it is in the short run.
We are no longer a country run by rules. Truly something to think about before we move any further along this track – there be dragons.

erratum That last bit needs a tweak -

Anarchy is a bad thing - no matter how many ignorant people think it is 'good' in the short run.

We are no longer a country run by rules, we are now a country ruled by ignorance and emotion - and the oft-repeated lie.

Thieleman is right

More opposition to the 'coalition' is likely going to be the result from this.

Should the opposition decide to vote them out no matter what in January, then to the polls we will go.

I cannot see the GG accepting the coalition as formed and even less can I see the Liberals accepting Dion as continuing to 'lead' with his resignation letter 'on file'.

The Liberals are getting ready for a blood-bath. There are at least three camps forming that I have observed, with the largest organized group coming from the old Martin supporters...and we all know what they managed to accomplish.

The NDP would do well to back away from the pit before being pulled in with a rudderless Liberal party. Ultimately this may be even a better hit for the Dippers, who knows they may even get more than the 52 seats that the BQ is likely to get and form the 'official opposition'.

The war chests are depleted, the troops are tired. Look for a lack-lustre campaign in med-February with the pissed off electorate sending the Conservatives to Parliament with a Majority.

Not because I like it that way.

Because I see it that way.

Libs have no money and no leader.
Dippers have less $$ and bigger debt$.
BQ are as strong as ever and likely to sweep Quebec.
Conservatives, while they are not likely to get many gains in eastern canada will hold their own...possibly picking up some seats in vital Ontario.

Bill Tielmann

Thank you Bill for your post. But this crisis isn't about the image on our nickel, its about equity, the right to strike, the refusal to allow fellow Canadians to be demonized and a level playing field during elections. Watching polls and playing politics has no place in it.

If there's anyone on this website that has attacked the Liberals for their record in the 1990's more than I have then please point them out to me.

And of course it was bad to cut health care, housing and social programs in order to balance the books on the backs of those who could least afford it.

And of course it was rubbing salt in the wound to then reduce taxes on corporations and the rich while child poverty, waiting lists and homelessness increased.

But the Conservatives didn't argue against those things either, Manning cheering them on.

So now we have Martin's heirs on the Right picking up where he left off and attacking human rights such as the right to strike and pay equity for women while at the same time trying to tilt the democratic playing field in its own favour.

And your response has been to play politics, to say the NDP will be reduced in support.

Who cares? The NDP is nothing more than a political vehicle for those of us that think the above policies are wrong (if not evil). The NDP is a means, not an end.

Standing by when polls are used to justify running roughshod over our laws and institutions that are their to protect our human rights is playing politics.

Canadians may indeed gleefully support the marginalizing of their fellow citizens in the name of economic efficiency. But that doesn't make it right.

The worst that will happen to those that speak up and demand better is being ignored and yet you think we should stand aside and say nothing in the hopes the Conservatives, when they've finished taking us back to the 1830's, will allow us to contest the next election, albeit without any money.

Thumbs Up for Frank

I totally agree with Frank.

Aided and abetted by the complicit media, this entire event been co-opted to try to turn a very serious matter into an idiotic debate questioning MPs' patriotism, politicians personalities, books on shelves, poor video taping techniques, flags behind tables, renegade party members, and my laugh for the week - the singing Conservative Choir in the Parliament building (as though that proves ANYTHING).... all red-herring diversions to avoid the important, critical issues.

Those who care about the public good need to push back in the mainstream media and to politicians across the country. If you write a letter, send it everywhere.

strong within a coalition

I think we are on to something here Frank and G West!
NDP has tried too hard to become more mainstream, and failed!
But if we get to have coalitions governments, then NDP can and should represent its true ideals!
No compromises in policy, but a willingness to work in co-operation with other parties.
At least when NDP speaks it will represent us, and it will be clear to all that we have a serious plan for the future.
True, there will have to be trade-offs in order to get any of our proposals passed, but that is how most modern democracies have gained at least some benefits for the average citizens.
It should be obvious that if NDP just hopes to replace the Liberals, we will wind up with a centre party and a new labour party will spring up.

Illuminating

This article was clear and concise. The people I have forwarded it to have found it very helpful in understanding the framework of a Coalition government in Canada.

Cnfession

It's interesting what a huge difference a few days can make in politics. Events unfold and information expands.

At least that's my excuse, for I've switched my position stated above, and now feel enthusiastic about the chances of the Coalition succeeding in the upcoming election.

I guess I'll have to quit blaming the public for being fickle, eh? :-)

But he still has the Keys!

Harper is now ruler without the confidence of the house and we can thank the gg for that. IF this blows over and normality returns, we need to have comprehensive rules for the gg office to make it idiot proof.

But please be aware of the danger that it will not blow over. The worst rats in the soup right now are harper liberals who think they can bargain with him and make a deal that will stick. Did appeasment work with hitler? nope. Will it work with harper? same answer. Harper is not a normal politician. He is one of those flukes of nature that destroy weak democracys at random.
The other 200 pound rat in the soup is how the gg office will react if presented with the coalition or election option.
I have a horrible feeling that this GG will chose election. I have no idea why she gave in to harper the first time and the second time.
Judges explain their decisions, she does not. Has the gg office been compromised?
Perhaps. But it surely reveals itself as a weak link in our system. One which must be repaired quickly IF our system survives the Harper coup attempt.

Excellent article

It's slightly scary how many Canadians seem to misunderstand how parliamentary democracy works. Partly it's the fault of the news media: racing to declare "The Winner" five minutes ahead of the other network, they can't handle an election with no winner.

We saw that in Ontario in 1985, when the Progressive Conservatives won four seats more than the Liberals but David Peterson soon became Premier, thanks to the Liberal-NDP Accord. For a time after that, the media in Ontario knew better than to declare a winner too soon, but they have forgotten. The Ontario NDP, however, have not forgotten the 1987 Liberal landslide after the Liberals took credit for everything the NDP made them do; our mistake was not getting our share of the Ministers' positions.