Opinion

Revenge of the Big 'Burbs

City vs. suburbs is the new fault line of Canadian politics.

By Richard Warnica, 24 Aug 2007, TheTyee.ca

Lower Mainland Suburbs

'The big winners in electoral shake-up.' (Google Earth image)

When the electoral boundaries commission released its report last week, the news seemed obvious: it looked like your typical city vs. country story.

After years of urban growth and shrinking populations, the province's northern interior would be stripped of three seats. The bulk of additions to an expanded 81-seat legislature would be bestowed upon the booming Lower Mainland, the engine driving B.C.'s population growth.

But the bigger story, in the long run, may be where those Lower Mainland seats end up. Under the report's recommendations, only one of the four new urban seats would be tacked onto the city of Vancouver. The other three are to be spread among the city's ballooning suburbs and exurbs: Surrey, the Fraser Valley and the Tri-Cities area would each earn an additional member.

Suburbs are driving population growth across Canada. Nowhere more so than in B.C. And as suburban populations blossom and electoral maps are redrawn, the politics of this province -- and this country -- are changing.

Suburbanites vote conservative

How that change reshapes B.C. is a story for another day; if not during the 2009 election, then certainly in 2013. It is, however, already an issue elsewhere in the nation.

Suburban support fuelled the growth of Mario Dumont's ADQ party in this year's Quebec provincial election. The suburbs also provided the core of Mike Harris's support during the conservative revolution that swept Ontario in the 1990s. Federally, meanwhile, Stephen Harper made waves in 2006 when he won a minority government without a single seat in the urban cores of Canada's three largest cities.

The common thread among Dumont, Harris and Harper is that they're all Conservatives. And not old school Blue Tory Progressive Conservatives either. It's no coincidence.

A small but growing body of academic literature -- much of it produced by youngish urban geographer Alan Walks -- suggests suburban and urban Canadians vote in significantly different ways. Put simply, suburbanites are more likely to vote conservative than are their urban neighbours. And as the suburbs grow, so too will the conservative clout of their residents.

When I spoke to Walks on the phone from his lab at the University of Toronto's Centre for Urban and Community Studies, he had no problem imagining the day when a conservative party could win a majority government in Canada without any support whatsoever in inner cities.

"It could happen now," he said. "Oh yeah. Particularly because a lot of rural areas and areas in the West will vote Conservative no matter what."

Cities to lose electoral power

It may soon be possible for a party to take a majority of Canada's Parliament with only suburban seats.

"Depending on how the riding boundaries are drawn, I definitely think it's possible," Walks said. "That's what happened in the U.S. I think about 1990 or so, from that point on, more than 50 per cent of the population lived in the suburbs."

What that means in practical terms is pretty clear, according to Walks.

"It portends less of a voice for the inner city," he said. "We're not likely to see any government step into the breach and meet the city's demands for infrastructure maintenance."

Other issues that get labelled as city concerns could suffer as well. "When you live in inner cities, you see homelessness, you see declines in public transit and other public infrastructure on a daily basis. And you think 'this isn't right,'" Walks said. "But in the suburbs, where you don't see these kinds of things, you're more likely to tune them out. And if you do see them, you think, this isn't a suburban problem, it's an inner city problem, I don't really need to worry about it."

Mature suburbs may diversify

The implications for social policy may not be so obvious.

Consider supervised injection. While some might see the Tories waffling on the trial as an example of them throwing a big city issue under the bus to appease suburban supporters, Walks isn't so sure.

"My guess is that some people in the suburbs might be worried about poverty infiltrating their own neighbourhoods, and they might even want to keep it in Vancouver," he said. "So they might see this as a way of keeping it there."

There's also a danger in over generalizing the suburbs. Yes, overall, right now, they do tend to vote conservative. But that could change, or at least ebb, in the future.

As city centres become more expensive, they're going to become less of an option for many people, Walks said. That might serve to moderate the suburban vote.

"In the Vancouver region, that may very well be," Walks said. "Especially as Vancouver gets so expensive and pushes those who can't afford to live there to the edges, you might start seeing a reversal."

Immigration is another big issue. "The Mike Harris government, here in Ontario, removed much of the regulations on developing green field sites and in turn it led to this huge building boom at the edges," Walks said. "So you might think it would have been this great constituency for the Harris government. But no, it's not true. Most of those moving into these new developments are immigrants who are more likely to vote for the Liberal party. So that cancelled out whatever benefits the expansion would have had for [the Conservatives]."

Suburbs vs. everyone else?

Canadian politics have traditionally been viewed as the product of conflict among various cleavages: French vs. English; East vs. West; urban vs. rural. But with the nation fast suburbanizing, the defining cleavage for the next generation of Canadians may well be city vs. suburb.

Of course, as the shrinking hinterland support recommended by the B.C. electoral boundary commission suggests, it's not just city dwellers who may lose out to the coming suburban tide.

"Things aren't likely to get better for the cities," Walks warned. "But they're not likely to get better for rural areas either."

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26  Comments:

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  • rac

    4 years ago

    The Burbs are Screaming for Transit

    At least around Vancouver, the Burbs are becoming more urban every day. There are a lot of high-rises going up in the Tri-cities.

    The suburbs are screaming for transit as well.

    An Aldergrove senior recently collected 6,000 signatures successfully petitioning for transit between Aldergrove and Abbotsford.
    http://www.abbynews.com/portals-code/list.cgi?paper=38&cat=23&id=1050154&more=0

    Coquiltam, Port Moody and Port Coquitlam are demanding the Evergreen Line be completed soon.

    South of the Fraser, people are tired of poor public transit. A facebook group, "The Fraser Valley needs passenger rail service NOW" has reached over 700 members in a couple of months:http://sfu.facebook.com/group.php?gid=3327190136

    VALTAC, http:// www.valtac.org is also calling for transit improvements in the valley.

  • vicki

    4 years ago

    Urban creep.....

    I'm not sure I'd agree with the suggestion that social problems are still concentrated in urban areas and ignored in the suburbs. Five years ago maybe. Surrey and Maple Ridge spring immediately to mind, but I also know that rural BC has its own issues around addiction, mental health, crime and poverty. It just gets less media coverage.

  • harry

    4 years ago

    issues like this are why politics smells so bad

    i'm no expert here, but i thought the whole idea of a democracy was one person one vote...

    all this politicking of speculating and redrawing lines and such shuffling stinks so terribly badly of stacking the deck.

  • RickW

    4 years ago

    I see our government

    Quote:
    The bulk of additions to an expanded 81-seat legislature would be bestowed upon the booming Lower Mainland, the engine driving B.C.'s population growth.

    ...is taking the environmental bull by the horns, and reining in the kind of sprawl that uses up unrenewable resources lickedy split!

  • biscotti

    4 years ago

    Where does BC's wealth originate?

    Quote:
    ...the booming Lower Mainland, the engine driving B.C.'s population growth.

    Really? Let's not forget the 2002 Urban Futures Institute report by David Baxter and Andrew Ramlo:

    "Compared to the provincial average annual international exports of $8,659 per capita, the average originating in non-metropolitan regions is $14,290 per person, while that originating in metropolitan regions is only $4,278 per person, half the provincial, and 30% of the non-metropolitan, averages. Non-metropolitan areas produce a $6,261 per capita surplus from international exports while metropolitan areas have a $4,176 per capita deficit."

    http://www.urbanfutures.com

    Revenge indeed.

  • flattax

    4 years ago

    Disagree with article completely

    If the northern BC loses three seats and the go to Suburban areas, voting pattern changes will likley be more liberal than conserative. Since rural areas are WAY more likely to vote conservative and suburban a LITTLE more likely to vote conservative.

    I also thing the divide is between the urban/suburban and the rural. Since as the population decreases in the rural areas the densly populated areas have to subsidize them mroe and more.

    Vancouver and Surrey have more in common with each other than Vancouver/Peace River.

    And contrary to what many people seem to think. There ARE more issues out there than Public Transit.

  • RickW

    4 years ago

    Whoa up there, Flattax

    Quote:
    Since as the population decreases in the rural areas the densly populated areas have to subsidize them mroe and more.

    I disagree completely with your statement!
    If the revenues for the resources that are being extracted in record quantities remained in those areas, people would be moving to "anywhere but Vancouver". As it stands though, the rural areas for the most part subsidize the urban areas, because the wealth goes there, and only a little is returned.

    If I took a $100 from you, 'cause you weren't using it, then gave you $1 back, I am sure you would be quite pi$$ed about it.

    That's like saying Calgary is subsidizing Alberta, when we all know it's the tarsands, with the wealth going (mostly) to the urban areas.

  • srfl

    4 years ago

    vicki

    Quote:
    rural BC has its own issues around addiction, mental health, crime and poverty. It just gets less media coverage.

    Absolutely right, Vicki! Much of rural BC is not doing well. Suicides, poverty, and crime are plentiful.

  • RickW

    4 years ago

    srfl

    Which seems to hand-in-hand with Flattax's notion of rural BC's "welfare" status......

  • rangergord

    4 years ago

    its all urban to me

    I have to agree with flattax. The divide in BC is between rural and urban/suburban.
    Every suburb surrounding Vancouver proper is just a degree away from being a new urban centre. I am a rural resident and I know the truth about how rural resources pay the bills for the urban areas. The rest of the dough goes into the pockets of the corporate cronies the government is in bed with. I don't vote conservative or liberal but the majority here certainly do. Genetic predisposition to stupidity I guess. There are big problems with representation by population in BC. The population base is obviously skewed by geography and history to the point where the majority are clearly in two tiny pockets of the Fraser Valley/Vancouver island and the Okanogan. Meanwhile the interior and northern hinterlands hold the bulk of the resource commodities that drive the economy. Given the economic and environmental importance of the rural areas there needs to be a legislative mechanism that addresses the demographic and geographic differences.

  • flattax

    4 years ago

    Subsidizing rural areas

    Agreed that the resources in rural areas are vast and with current commodity prices worth alot. They are big income generators and are basically funding the province and providing the surplus that that provincial government sleazingly tries to take credit for.

    However, my point is simply that providing services to rural areas costs more than providing services to urban areas. And my beef is that urban areas are forced often by legislation to subsidize rural areas. For example:

    Phone service in urban areas costs more since Telus cannot charge more to rural customers than they do to urban customers.

    Postal services cost more in the city since Canada Post cannot charge more for pick up and delivery in one horse towns.

    I would like to see a more accurate "Transfer Pricing" mechanism in place to track the costs and split them out. Easpecially for crown corps and regulated monopolies like Telus.

  • G West

    4 years ago

    flattax

    You haven't heard of the social contract apparently, nor the deregulation of local phone service either....I think rural BC is going to have to start sending you an annual bill for everything from water to the air around your head and the cartage on the shoes on your feet - I doubt they were made in Vancouver but they either came here in a truck, on a train or plane or via boat. So, when you decide you want some accounts rendered you might remember you'll likely get a few bills in your mail slot too....

  • rangergord

    4 years ago

    Rural subsidy

    I agreed with you on one point flattax, you should have quit while you were ahead.
    I cannot agree that rural areas should be free of subsidy. It is subsidy that pays for the development that is badly needed. Bennett Sr. understood this very well and he was an unapolagetic capitalist. Even with small subsidies we still have far less service and convenience in the hinterland. Capitalists have no desire to help a "few people living in the sticks" So the fair thing to do is to share these costs across the entire nation and provide a better standard of living for everyone including those who labour to provide the commodities on which those in the city depend. Not only that the examples you cite are lame. Postal service in my one horse town means no door to door delivery, no rural routes and is the only way I can economically obtain many needed goods by mail order from the city. The lower costs of postal service versus private courier benefit everyone equally in this country thank god.
    Telephone service in rural BC used to be less expensive than in Vancouver. I remember when I paid $4-8 per month for a party line (yahoo, lets celebrate!) and very high long distance charges. Now I pay more than $25 per month for a private line and much lower long distance rates (isn't equality great) Not much difference from what you pay in the city I think. Then there is BC Hydro. I live a few kilometres from the second largest dam in the province. At the time of its construction the power was of great benefit to the local development of our community as well as the jobs. If we decided cut the power lines to the south because we were tired of supporting "city slickers" I am sure it be a problem. Not to mention all the valuable wilderness and timber that was wasted and flooded out because we had too much of those things at the time. How about ICBC? Still want to privatize it? No matter that the private companies make millions denying policyholders their rightfull claims and charge more for the privledge. Then there are the hospitals, those expensive houses of death sprinkled throughout the province. Unfortunately it often takes longer than an hour to reach one when you need to and your chances of dying go through the roof. If we are lucky we will be airlifted to a city hospital where most of the doctors are because it is cheaper to fly and drive the almost dead to the city than provide a network of good rural hospitals. While we are brought back to life in the city our relatives can visit us at their expense by driving and flying to the city to stay in expensive hotels. Since most rural people are simpletons anyways, we could save money by downsizing the schools to one room, keeping the girls at home in the kitchen and teaching the boys using online education.

  • sthrendyle

    4 years ago

    good topic for debate...

    as someone who recently considered moving back to the lower mainland for ostensibly a 'better paying job' than out here in The Heartland(s), i must say that there is likely lots to write about and study in this urban/suburban divide. housing in vancouver proper is ridiculously unaffordable - and, to a large degree, the housing stock is not reliable - y'know, houses aren't that much different than cars or other consumer items - they plumb wear out, and cost more than they're worth to fix up a lot of the time. so, you decide to consider the 'burbs, but soon realize that you'll be sitting for hours in your single-occupancy car because it take ninety minutes on public transit (one way from White Rock - i looked it up on translink!) - burning two or three hours per day sitting in traffic! some people want their kids to attend 'better schools' in the suburbs, and they want a nice sized lots for playing soccer with the kids and letting 'em run around - tyee posters may not know it but families - white, liberal, asian, conservative - whatever families - crave space more than just about anything else. space from their kids, their spouses, their work colleagues, and the suburbs offer that.
    interestingly, i just returned from toronto. those vancouverites whining about 'overcrowding' in a 33 x 125 foot lot would be stunned to see Victorian row housing in Leslieville (12 foot wide townhomes, anyone??)... still, gotta love that TTC transit. well, to quote christine lavin 'if you want space, go to fort st john...'
    on another note, - don'tcha love these private healthcare clinic ads on the Tyee??

  • RickW

    4 years ago

    rangergord

    Quote:
    Genetic predisposition to stupidity I guess

    Good one!

    BTW, how's Red Green doing these days?

  • VancouverPointGreen

    4 years ago

    Missing the point...

    More importantly, the whole idea behind the new boundaries better represents the proportionality of the province by region and city. This article only states the opinions of a "youngish urban geographer" as the basis for the opinion. Here are some key points to consider:
    Our current First-Past the Post electoral system is a sham. Here's why:
    · Denies representation for all voters
    Winner-take-all voting systems provide representation only for those voters who support the most popular party in their riding. The majority of votes cast in BC
    elections elect no one.
    · Distorts the will of the voters
    Because many voters do not win representation, overall election results are distorted. A party winning only 40% of the vote may gain 60% or more of the seats and 100% of the power. Smaller parties that may attract 5% or 15% of the vote will almost never be represented (like the current BC Green Party).
    · Produces phony majority governments.
    Because of these distortions, BC is generally ruled by phony majority governments – i.e., by parties that captured a majority of seats without winning a
    majority of the popular vote.
    · Fails to produce accountable governments
    Governments that win with less than majority support nonetheless claim a “mandate from the people”. Once any party controls a majority of seats, nothing can stop a premier from enacting unpopular laws that are not supported by a majority of voters.
    · Gives us stagnation or wild swings
    BC often has periods where one party is entrenched in power for an extended period (like the present with the BC Liberals). Then, even with a relatively small shift in voter attitude, the composition of the legislature can swing wildly from one side of the ideological spectrum to the other. Neither trend is responsive to the evolving political will of citizens.
    · Results in low percentages of women and visible minority MLAs
    Every voting system produces incentives for parties to bring forward certain types of candidates. In a winner-take-all system, parties have little incentive to field a diverse range of candidates. Other voting systems in which parties must bring forward lists of candidates for larger regions have the opposite incentive.
    · Promotes apathy, cynicism and negativity among voters
    In BC, nearly 40% of eligible voters do not
    bother casting ballots. Countries using fair voting systems generally have higher voter turnouts.
    Hopefully, Ontarians will vote in the MMP and British Columbians will have the choice to bring in STV in the next provincial election with pre-determined boundaries.

  • G West

    4 years ago

    Why don't we get a real choice in BC

    Bring on a referendum but not just the single option STV - it is better than FPP - but not by much and multi-member ridings are a BAD idea.

    And how about making voting compulsory?

  • flattax

    4 years ago

    Lets get rid of first past the post and

    then we can have deadlock and a new government every year. Yeah! Just like Italy!

    Then we WILL have to make voting compulsory since we will be so tired of voting every year, nobody will bother anymore.

  • Step easy

    4 years ago

    STV

    As much as i agree with the notion of overhauling the electoral system, i have to wonder if the people of BC actually even care. Remember our last election when we ticked off the ballot not only for who we wanted as provincial representative's but also that simple Y/N question on whether or not we personally opted for a change to the electoral system, particularly the STV? That little thing was voted down, just barely mind, but voted down it was. It seems the people of this province are just not ready for change.

  • RickW

    4 years ago

    G West

    Quote:
    And how about making voting compulsory?

    I think it is Germany which has certain benefits a voter can receive from the state, that a non-voter is denied.

    I think an incentive of this kind would work better than compulsory.

    Of course, in either case, you can be sure there will be rat/lawyers ready to whip out the Charter............

    Also, in 25 words or more, have the voter explain WHY (s)he votes for who (s)he votes for.....that would make some interesting commentary........

    However, I thnk in the overall spirit of democracy, we need a system that encourages continuing citizen participation. Never mind this lethargic arousal once every 4 years.

  • G West

    4 years ago

    RickW

    I think it's compulsory in Australia too...with a fairly nominal fine...for not complying:
    Australia

    Voting has been compulsory in Australia since 1924. Like Belgium, once at the polling station, there is no obligation to complete a ballot paper.

    Also like Belgium, a good excuse circumnavigates a punishment.

    The set fine for non-attendance is $A20. About 5 per cent of non-voters pay this straight away, with almost everyone else providing a valid reason for not voting. A few people take their case to court, where, if they lose, the fine rises to $A50 plus costs. Refusal to pay this can result in community service or a couple of days in jail.

    Under compulsory legislation countries like Australia and Belgium get between 90% and 95% turnout in general elections.

  • RickW

    4 years ago

    Does Attendance = Voting?

    Quote:
    Under compulsory legislation countries like Australia and Belgium get between 90% and 95% turnout in general elections.

    I wonder what the percentage of spoiled ballets are, if actual voting is not compulsory, and only attendance is......

  • G West

    4 years ago

    I wondered about that too

    I think I read somewhere that most of the 5 - 10%% who don't vote are either spoiled ballots or citizens who plop down the 20 bucks, flip all the parties and bird and go on their merry way.

  • RickW

    4 years ago

    Anything BUT FPTP

    ...would likely be an improvement for, of, and by the people.

    When was the last time we actually had a governing party concerned for, of, and by the people..........?

  • rangergord

    4 years ago

    proportional rep

    Definitely needed ASAP. I voted for STV simply because we need something better than FPP. Then percentage of voters who did not vote in my riding could easily sway the results of any recent election if they could be motivated to do so. Not in favour of legislating voting mandatory however. Democracy must be nurtured not bludgeoned.

  • RickW

    4 years ago

    Democracy must be nurtured not bludgeoned

    Beginning to think though that the electorate is dumb as the proverbial post.....maybe a little bludgeoning now and then is a good thing (sorry, Mr. Jefferson, wherever you are!).

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