BC Liberal exodus is a non-confidence vote in premier's leadership, no matter the spin.

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Clark. Haakstad. McDonald. Mentzelopoulos. Millar. White. The power six behind BC's premier.
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Attacked from inside her caucus, the premier hasn't built vital support from everyday British Columbians. What went wrong?
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Why Premier Clark has her hands full keeping her own party in line.
Now, cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do you no good / When the levee breaks, mama, you got to move. -- "When The Levee Breaks," written by Memphis Minnie & Kansas Joe McCoy, later performed by Led Zeppelin.
The BC Liberal levee broke last week and by the end of political hurricane season many of its MLAs will be adrift, not running for re-election.
The sudden resignations of Finance Minister Kevin Falcon and Education Minister George Abbott in just 24 hours only indicates the extreme severity of the storm Premier Christy Clark faces, not its length.
The departure of Clark's two closest leadership rivals in 2011's contest is more than just a case of planned retirement -- it is a non-confidence vote in Clark, no matter how much they deny it.
Add in last week's announcement that Children and Family Development Minister Mary McNeil and Clark's Parliamentary Secretary John Les also won't run, as well as today's announcements that Joan McIntyre and Rob Howard are quitting, and the running total is 12 sitting B.C. Liberal MLAs bowing out.
Cabinet minister Rich Coleman now says he's hanging in to run again, but expect more announcements soon from other BC Liberals who won't run again in the May 2013 election.
After all, with the B.C. NDP at 45 per cent in recent polls and the B.C. Liberals at just 23 per cent with the B.C. Conservatives under leader John Cummins narrowly behind at 22 per cent, most of Clark's MLAs can expect to lose their seats barring a miracle turnaround
"I do expect there will be some more [resignations]. I have had those conversations with those people," Clark herself admitted to media last week.
And those remaining B.C. Liberals face a difficult challenge, according to Vernon-Monashee MLA Eric Foster.
"The ship isn't sinking," Foster has said. "It's our job to make sure people know this isn't the case."
Not sinking? There's an awful lot of water on the decks.
Previous tidal waves
In the last two election tsunamis that all but wiped out the New Democrat government in 2001 and the Social Credit administration in 1991, each party had 15 sitting MLAs decline to face voters.
Odds are the BC Liberals will match or beat that total, making the unflattering comparison inevitable.
On the plus side, 24 sitting MLAs -- including Clark -- have stated their intention to run again, based on media reports.
That leaves eight caucus members yet to announce their plans, including former finance minister Colin Hansen -- co-author of the Harmonized Sales Tax with ex-premier Gordon Campbell, current cabinet ministers Rich Coleman, Mary Polak, Blair Lekstrom, and Ida Chong and backbenchers Joan McIntyre, Randy Hawes, and Rob Howard.
Since Clark will shuffle her cabinet this week and says only those running again will be appointed, some MLAs made their choice this past long weekend and informed the premier.
'We've got a question of leadership'
But there's more trouble than just MLA departures. Former B.C. Liberal strategist Alise Mills suggested on CBC Radio last Wednesday that Falcon's resignation indicates senior government members don't have confidence in Clark.
"If George Abbott leaves tomorrow as is widely rumoured, that adds a lot of credibility on what Kevin Falcon did today and now we've got a question of leadership. We don't have a question of partisan game playing, we have a question of leadership," said Mills, a former Falcon leadership campaign supporter who is no longer a BC Liberal Party member.
"I'm not going to be popular amongst BC Liberals for saying this but I do think there was a break, a crack in ideology between the premier and the finance minister. I think one had one direction, one had another," Mills told host Stephen Quinn.
Another indication of Clark's conundrum is that Falcon publicly pledged during that contest he would run for the BC Liberals in 2013, even goading Clark when she refused to make the same promise.
"Christy, I've made a commitment to run in this election win or lose, so whether I win or lose [the leadership] I'm going to be a candidate for this party," Falcon said.
Now he's breaking that word and regardless of changed personal circumstances -- he and wife Jessica expect a second child in February -- Falcon clearly has more than family reasons for leaving.
Will right unite?
And what does the future hold for the political right? Will the BC Conservatives jump past the lackluster Liberals and become official opposition to a BC NDP government and the go-to choice for the centre right in 2017?
Will the B.C. Liberals survive to fight another day? Or will the two parties then merge as has happened before in provincial political history?
Much speculation is taking place amongst right-wing political activists and B.C. Liberal business backers, many of whom are already conceding the 2013 ballot to NDP leader Adrian Dix.
Leave the last word to Mills as to the political future after the election: "I don't think the BC Liberal Party will exist." ![[Tyee]](http://thetyee.cachefly.net/ui/img/ico_fishie.png)
Bill Tieleman is a regular Tyee contributor who writes a column on B.C. politics every Tuesday in 24 Hours newspaper. E-mail him at weststar@telus.net or visit his blog.
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Skywalker
41 weeks ago
Here we go again.
The only thing the NDP has to watch is to be careful not to show the same arrogance as the liberals after they decimated the NDP in 2001. Given the lacklustre performance of the NDP members in the years following the dynamic duo of MacPhail and Kwan I'm not sure they will be able to overcome the land mines left for them. They will be short of money trying to clean up liberal's crap piles all over the place.
uncle george
41 weeks ago
Gov't
NDP = bloated overpaid civil service and TEACHERS Iwould like to see the COST per hour ,wages AND benefits the average working man can't even dream to attain. oops forgot the pensions.
Vox.Pop
41 weeks ago
Sunk, not sinking
"The ship isn't sinking," Eric Foster has said. True, it's already well below the surface. Perhaps, the BC Liberals can sell their vessel to the Feds as Canada's next submarine - last time it was the Brits who seemed able to readily dump their rubbish on the Canadian taxpayer.
Hiss pot
41 weeks ago
Correction
Sorry Bill, "When the Levee Breaks" and these lyrics you've credited to Led Zep are in fact by Memphis Minnie and Joe Mccoy. A minor point perhaps, but I think it is always good to give credit where credit is due, especially when you are writing in public.
irth1st
41 weeks ago
Puuulleeeese Uncle George
UG- Where are your facts? The Liberal government has crippled BC with their failed fiscal policies. The latest audit reports demonstrate how badly they have managed the provinces finances and show they couldn't manage a popcorn stand without going broke! The BC Liberals leak money like an Enbridge Pipeline leaks oil.
It is about priorities and the Free Enterprise coalition has driven down wages and workers rights in BC while giving away our tax dollars to profitable multi-national corporations.
You must have forgotten Gordon Campbells 43% pay increase to MLA's when he entered the position of ultimate power. You must have forgotten the 30 million dollar Boss Power screw-up. There are so many examples of obscene and twisted spending priorities executed by the BC Liberal party that it would take a large volume book to account for them all.
Yes please pay teachers well, they spend money, lot's of it, which keeps money in small towns. This money get's recirculated into the local economy instead of being siphoned out by multi-nationals who don't pay scant of what they should in royalties and taxes. The public service benefits...yes please give them good benefits. When they retire they will remain strong consumers on a local level! They will have better health and less likely to end up on welfare due to rising user fees and costs of living delivered by the BC Liberal government.
Teachers are only one example.
The Liberal government of BC is the dictionary definition of bloated. Bloated with corruption, ignorance and hate (KK). The spittle spewing blathering that has come out of that man's mouth was unreal!
Luckily these fools are fleeing...let's hope most don't get recycled by John Cummins- another total wing nut!
alive
41 weeks ago
Good time Charlie?
So Falcon had "good reasons" to resign?
One commentator mused if those same good reason would have counted, had Falcon been the premier?
Yes he lost to Christy and so that changes the perspective?
No, it proves he is an opportunist!
Watch for his next "opportunity" and which corporate board takes him on.
irth1st
41 weeks ago
How many more required
How many more Liberal MLA's need to leave before Christy HAS to dissolve her failed government and call an election?
Please Mr. Lake do us all a favour and join your friends in the public sector. Don't you want to spend more time with family too?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/09/04/bc-liberal-mla.html?cmp=rss&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Sine Nomine
41 weeks ago
Anachronism
The party is already dead. All that is left, is for the self-congratulatory nonsense as they transition into their private lives.
Thanks for coming out. Thanks for the mess you left. Enjoy the pensions.
archer2006
41 weeks ago
Who's next
Prediction: Hawes and Chong next, Hansen by the end of the month.
seth
41 weeks ago
Be careful
Coming News Item.
" Christy Clark will announce in the Feb 2103 budget that due to BC's financial crisis there will be no time for an election that year and pass legislation moving the election date to the statutory May 2014."
This will be a Hail Mary pass for her hoping the Fascists and/or NDP implode, but at the very least giving the corporates an extra year to rape and pillage. In the latter case she will be richly rewarded.
azub
41 weeks ago
Uncle George, If you believe
Uncle George,
If you believe the public servant package is all it is cracked up to be, I encourage you to apply for a job with them.
Many jobs classified as "working" earn far more in both cash & benefits (especially in the North) than a public servant can ever hope to receive.
Bob Watts
41 weeks ago
Pensions.
For her it is about a Gold Plated Pension.
For the MLA's it is about taking a fat pension, getting out of the way as your fellow MLA's climb the greed ladder for a few months as cabinet ministers and also max out the penions.
Fact is their is far more money to steal from the public sector than the private sector.
Will the NDP be any better?
The NDP are in lockdown saying nothing, they are about to win the lottery of life and are not going to brag!!!
Davey
41 weeks ago
Uncle George
I'm curious too UGeorge and agree whole heartedly, let's see what teachers really make per hour. Let's be fair though and not forget after school tutorials and meetings, oh and the sports stuff, you know the travel to and from games, practices and set up time etc.. and clubs. Once you get home George don't forget to thoughtfully mark each assignment and make 4 new lessons for tomorrow including all supplies and materials. All this to help your grandkids while you complain? I see the BC teacher's hourly wage hourly shrinking George because you didn't think it through. Oh and how can we forget the pension that every teacher pays approx $1000-$1100 net wages a MONTH into. Remember if it seems too good to be true than it probably is.
OwlRol
40 weeks ago
Libs n teachers
1. The complete demise of the Christy Libs would worry me, it only further polarizes and creates a less cooperative and so less functional system. Just superimpose the Ottawa scenario onto BC 2017 or 2021.
Like to see an NDP crack at power in BC, but watch the MSM attacks on them, and their backing of BC Cons, likely minus John Cummins.
2. Different note in this comment.
Uncle George wouldn't likely last 2 months in a public school classroom, Gr. 2,7 or 12.
50% of young teachers leave within 5 years. And it really ain't so much the kids, even though they can be very trying (consider Arnold's Disneyfied "Kindergarten Cop" for 35 years), but it's the system that drives many down.
A meticulous, Business Ed. dept. head I knew calculated that most teachers' salaries, given the mandated student contact hours, but also including the many non-contact hours requirements and time donations, even more than those so well presented by Davey, they earn only a couple of dollars more than minimum wage. Regardless of love, many educaters do their best to climb out of these trenches.
He liked the job, working with kids, but he could never run his own businesses that way, expecting that his employees would ever tolerate similar requirements unless truly desperate.
But Davey, check your pension numbers.
Teachers contribute a considerable amount to their pensions each year (35 years of contributions and interest throughout those years surely ads up if kept completely seperate from general revenues or hyper-risky investments).
But teachers don't pay 12 to 14 thousand dollars a year for their pensions, or they would surely be millionaires when they retired.
freebear
40 weeks ago
The wheels on the BC Liberals bus fell off-Lekstrom bails too!
Pathetic and reveals we live in a demockery!
freebear
40 weeks ago
Exodus!
Movement of ja Liberals!