- Ms Kaye is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Mary Carlisle is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Prem Gill is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Nancy Flight is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Justin Everett is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- John Westover is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Nora Etches is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Edward Henderson is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Bharadwaj Chandramouli is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Dean Chatterson is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Marius Scurtescu is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Robert Parkes is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- James Murton is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Susan Doyle is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Vincent Strgar is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Helen Spiegelman is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Subir Guin is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Kimball Finigan is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Joanne Manley is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- David Leach is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
Why Christy Clark's Election Decision Is So Tough
She promised an early vote, but the risk is high.
Should she stay or should she go... to the polls.
-
BC Teachers' Strike Adds Twist to Possible Fall Election
Teachers want more pay and funding; government hopes for quick settlement; NDP 'in a tough spot'.
-
Christy Clark's Bad Trip?
Try as she might to wave it on, her BC Rail scandal train has not left the station.
-
Christy Clark's Secrets of Success
Her shocking win demonstrates the Seven Habits of Highly Effective Liberal leaders.
Most pundits have discounted the likelihood of a fall provincial election this year, but Christy Clark has not repudiated her statement that she will violate the set election date specified in Section 23 of BC's Constitution Act. Clark would likely be supported if she amended the Act to change the next election to the fall of 2012, with subsequent elections every four years thereafter. I believe she will call it when the polls show she can win, unless of course she runs out of time and hits the May 14, 2013 required election date.
Public opinion polls provide what we call the horserace numbers (party preferences), sometimes broken down by region, gender and age. The last Mustel Group provincial voting intention poll in May put the Liberals at 38 per cent and the NDP at 35 per cent. The last Angus Reid poll in March put the Liberals at 43 per cent and the NDP at 38 per cent. A new Angus Reid poll is expected in September once the result on the HST referendum is known.
Political operatives are as interested in the horserace numbers as they are in the kind of detailed argument testing that drives advertising campaigns. That kind of polling, and associated focus groups, seeks to determine what arguments, and what precise wording, changes voting intention. The premier could call an election even though behind in the horserace numbers if she were confident that she could move the numbers by election day; she would be foolish to call an election, even if ahead in the polls, if she knew the opposition had arguments that would put them ahead by the time of the vote.
Make or break ridings
Whenever the election is called, particular attention will be paid to the constituencies which were won by narrow margins in 2009. The Liberals and NDP, possibly joined by the Greens and Conservatives, will run candidate in all 85 constituencies but it is unlikely that a Liberal would lose in West Vancouver -- Capilano where Ralph Sultan had a winning margin of 53 per cent (calculated as the excess of his vote over the NDP divided by the total of all valid votes cast). Likewise, the NDP appears to have a solid grasp on Surrey -- Green Timbers where Sue Hammell had a winning margin of 49 per cent. NDP leader Adrian Dix and Conservative leader John Cummins both talk about appealing to people who didn't vote last time, but parties know it is easier to win swing voters who regularly vote than it is to get non-voters to get out to the polls.
In 2009, there were 13 constituencies where the Liberal candidate and eight constituencies where the NDP candidate won by less than 10 per cent. That includes Cariboo North where Bob Simpson, whose winning margin was only four per cent, now sits as an independent.
The 13 weak Liberal constituencies with winning margins shown in parenthesis are: Surrey-Tynehead (nine per cent), Vernon-Monashee (five per cent), Vancouver-Fairview (five per cent), Comox Valley (five per cent), Boundary-Similkameen (five per cent), Vancouver-Fraserview (four per cent), Burnaby-Lougheed (four per cent), Burnaby North (three per cent), Kamloops-North Thompson (three per cent), Oak Bay-Gordon Head (two per cent), Saanich North and the Island (one per cent), Cariboo-Chilcotin (one per cent) and Maple Ridge-Mission (0.4 per cent). Some incumbent MLAs, like Kash Heed, Harry Bloy and Margaret MacDiarmid, are household names because of their records. It will be interesting to see if Terry Lake and Ida Chong, members of the weak group, were helped or hurt by failed recall campaigns. I expect the campaigns strengthened their organizations and put them in a stronger position for the next election.
The seven weak NDP constituencies represented by an NDP MLA are: Delta North (nine per cent), Fraser-Nicola (six per cent), Stikine (five per cent), Coquitlam-Maillardville (three per cent), Burnaby-Deer Lake (three per cent), Saanich South (two per cent), and Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows (one per cent). Harry Lali has won four elections; I expect he'll win again in Fraser-Nicola. Kathy Corrigan has created a high profile; I expect she'll increase her winning margin. The other seats are not safe bets, and the candidates need to spend every possible minute door knocking. Mainstreeting, waving from buses or using phone banks are poor substitutes for the hard work of going door-to-door to meet voters face-to-face. There isn't enough time in a 28-day election campaign for one person to canvass a significant portion of any constituency; the door-to-door work needs to begin now for any candidate who is serious about winning.
Too risky now?
The magic number for forming government is 43 MLAs, although a workable majority requires a few more seats than that. The Liberals currently hold 49 seats, the NDP 33, and there are two independents, one elected as such. To form government, the NDP must defeat at least six Liberal incumbents as well as hang on to all of the current NDP seats, or defeat an additional Liberal incumbent for each NDP incumbent that is defeated. That is not an insurmountable task for Adrian Dix and the NDP. Christy Clark and her advisers know that, which is why she may hesitate before rushing into an early election. ![[Tyee]](http://thetyee.cachefly.net/ui/img/ico_fishie.png){kind=small}
- BC snuffs out AirCare test program
- AFN national chief Shawn Atleo to launch re-election bid
- Citizens group releases video to fight undead Bill C-30
- Conservative MP says he might vote against budget, then 'clarifies' his position
- Genetically modified plants won't take root with councillors in Richmond, BC
- Hundreds at Vancouver rally to support Quebec students
- Could Fort Mac become an eco-tourist hotspot?
- Rick Hansen's Man in Motion anniversary tour concludes in Vancouver
- The Gem of Canadian Science that Harper Killed
- Who Mowed Down the Premier?
- Canada's Economy, Deconstructed (by a 12 year-old)
- Death in Remand: a Tyee Inquiry
- Now Is the Time to Talk up Big Ideas
- Bill C-38: the Environmental Destruction Act
- Sexism Tinges Criticism of Teachers' Job Action
- 'A Gut Feeling'
- Bias in BC's Pesticide Decision? Follow the Bouncing Verbs
- Why Blackberry's Embrace of HTML5 Is Good Karma
- The Gem of Canadian Science that Harper Killed
- Sexism Tinges Criticism of Teachers' Job Action
- Now Is the Time to Talk up Big Ideas
- The Ethics of Addiction Studies
- Bill C-38: the Environmental Destruction Act
- Alberta Fills Pipes with Corrosive Denial
- Bias in BC's Pesticide Decision? Follow the Bouncing Verbs
- How Our Immune Systems Exaggerate Fear
- BC biotech company seeks approval for GM apple
- What's Behind BC's Doors?
- Bias in BC's Pesticide Decision? Follow the Bouncing Verbs
- Death in Remand: A Jail Crammed with Risk
- The Ethics of Addiction Studies
- What's Behind BC's Doors?
- The Gem of Canadian Science that Harper Killed
- Sexism Tinges Criticism of Teachers' Job Action
- Should You Run from that Medical Test?
- 'The Dictator'
- Death in Remand: Stacked Deck
- 'Moonrise Kingdom'
- Double lung recipient dances on Ellen show
- ISS astronauts grab DragonX space capsule by the tail with Canada Arm
- Metro Vancouver gas prices peak at record levels
- Ottawa posts $9-billion deficit in March despite pledge to avoid spending spree
- BC phases out AirCare to focus on fighting bigger vehicle emissions
- Tsunami senors to be dropped into deep sea off of Vancouver Island
- Student groups file court challenge against Quebec protest law
- ...while on the streets, pirates and ninjas put aside mutual animosity to join student protests
57
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DSchreck
40 weeks ago
correction
My mistake on two numbers in the last paragraph; should have written: "The Liberals currently hold 49 seats, the NDP 34, and there are two independents, one elected as such. To form government the NDP must defeat at least 8 Liberal incumbents as well as hanging on to all of the current NDP seats or defeating an additional Liberal incumbent for each NDP incumbent that is defeated."
gsarahs
40 weeks ago
How many times do people have to be lied & deceived to change?
It absolutely amazes me that after what we have gone through over the last decade that there are so many people still willing to overlook the lies and deceit and still vote for the Lieberals! They also have proved that their money managing skills are poor. Your article really saddens me. To think that polling and wording of messages are that important. Are we so stupid?
firefox007
40 weeks ago
NDP Victory?
Just to say "Dix can do it"...win the next election; isn't much of a prognostication. Just how...?...The climb is very steep to beat nearly ten Liberal incumbents, as well as hold onto all the NDP seats. That's not easy at all; in fact it looks all but impossible. Dix is the farthest thing from a house-hold name in BC imaginable. Zero name recognition, no one knows what this person stands for.
What does a socialist Party stand for exactly, when socialism is well past its sell-buy date? They've never come up with a solid raison d'etre after the end of socialism. What exactly are they peddling that's so very different from Liberals, if they're not strong for the Left? One sees no platform of coherent ideas, that are both do-able in reality, and acceptable to enough swing voters to win.
Frank Lee
40 weeks ago
He's Glen Clark's Best Friend
Just explain that to people. And the NDP plays interest group politics, just with a different client base than the Liberals.
Actually, I have long favoured moving to a fall election date--May dates from 1996 when the other premier Clark, seeing economic clouds and diminished revenues on the horizon, wanted to avoid a new budget and and a fresh round of estimates.
September 2012 is a risky time, because we could still be in a slow economy then. But I think it is a worthwhile gamble.
G West
40 weeks ago
First of all
Stop apologizing for being socialist. The social democratic countries of northern Europe are the most successful and egalitarian countries in the world.
On the other hand, the capitalist/free market bullshit from the US, Canada and Great Britain have been shown to be bankrupt in terms of ideas except for increasing the concentration of wealth in fewer and fewer hands.
The Liberals in BC are a prime example of this abject failure.
Just tell the truth.
The rest will follow.
dave0ferg
40 weeks ago
Sticky Wicket, Indeed
If the HST referendum passes (ie Yes wins), it is a loss of confidence on a money matter and the Lt Governor would be justified in calling an immediate election—but it would be politically unwise for the Executive Council to recommend that action.
On the other hand if the HST referendum does not pass, it could be considered a vote of confidence in the government and the Executive Council would have no good excuse for recommending to the Lt Governor to overrule the fixed election date even if it might be politically advantageous for the Liberal Party.
Our real problem is that we have become a quasi-republican system where the Premier has more power than all the other elected MLSs combined.
Vox.Pop
40 weeks ago
Broken promises
David Schreck calmy proposes that Christy Clark will break a law (the BC Constitution Act) so that she can call an election whenever she thinks she can win. Can anyone explain how this is any different than never passing that law in the first place? This is the kind of BS that turns people off politics: naked cynicism.
Schreck's whole analysis is just "business as usual" with 'messaging' & moving a few election points in a few constituencies; this is just pathetic thinking & bodes ill for the NDP.
Come on, people. Defeating this rotten government in the HST is a political event of the first magnitude. This HST victory was driven by a rejection of Gordon Campbell's contempt of the voters AND a sense that the people's wishes should be paramount; i.e. populist democracy. If the NDP don't know how to seize & build on this unique opportunity then they do NOT deserve to be the government of BC.
anarcho
40 weeks ago
No Socialism here...
Firefox, "What does a socialist Party stand for exactly..." should read "What socialism?"
The NDP is not a socialist party, it is a SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC party. Nowhere in its platform will you find a demand for the abolition of capitalism. All it wishes to do is ameliorate some of the worst cruelties of the capitalist system, which I should add in this day and age of rampant kleptocracy, is nothing to sneer at.
Matt T.
40 weeks ago
anarcho
"the NDP is not a socialist party"
anarcho, the constitution of the ndp clearing states that we are a democratic socialist party from the tommy douglas tradition.
ndp constitution here: The principles of democratic socialism can be defined briefly as follows: a) the production and distribution of goods and services shall be directed to meeting the social and individual needs of people and not for
profit"
It's plain and simple and that's what differentiates us from the right-wing neo-con parties.
dorothy
40 weeks ago
Not the same story
"The social democratic countries of northern Europe are the most successful and egalitarian countries in the world."
OK, but their brand of social democratism is not that same as we see in action here. First, how will we explain that they (notably Denmark) participated in invasions of both Afghanistan and Iraq, when this runs completely contrary to social democrat ideology as we obviously understand it here? You might say Denmark of today has not a socialist government, but the loyalty in its alliance with the US has cut across all party lines and government shifts as far back as I recall, which is fifty-odd years. Secondly, as a person who has grown up in Denmark and came here as an adult, I can vouch that the Northern European brand of social democrat thinking is liberally shot with that hard-nosed pragmatism that is so characteristic of the region. Therefore, things would not necessarily play out as anything near a carbon copy here, even should the NDP win majorities anywhere, including in BC.
Anarcho has a good point in pressing the distinction between 'socialist and 'social democrat' philosophies. The party needs to work harder on making that distinction clear to voters. It might start with doing less Israel-bashing and peace-nick posturing.
woodworker
40 weeks ago
NDP is socialist
The NDP and the unions are one and the same. The unions are very socialist and have become more so over the years. The unions/NDP care absolutely nothing about the working class execpt to extract dues/taxes. Their main focus is social reconstruction away from free market/capitalism.
rantnic
40 weeks ago
SOCIALISTS ARE PEOPLE!
"Romney" said the other day, "Corporations are people too" and he would like to be the next president of the U.S.A.
Are N.D.P."s not people, because they might be socialist?
We are not trying to govern a business here we are trying to govern a society.
Governing a "society" is something that seems to have been forgotten by the politicians that have a majority mandate and thus garner favors from supporters.
anarcho
40 weeks ago
What are you smoking?
"The unions are very socialist and have become more so over the years." If only that were true!
anarcho
40 weeks ago
I stand corrected
I stand corrected Matt T. - perhaps I was thinking about the Federal NDP, but to be honest the BC NDP certainly hasn't lived up to that Tommy Douglas ideal since about the days of Dave Barrett don't you think?
anarcho
40 weeks ago
No Dorothy!
Dorothy one of the good things about the NDP is that it tends not to pander to whatever imperial war the kleptocrats have started. And you want to get rid of that?
G West
40 weeks ago
Disagree dorothy
Things would have panned out better if Canada hadn't hitched its wagon to the worn out market dominated capitalism of the US...which is the only point under discussion here...in my view.
Furthermore, Denmark isn't the only country which has managed to avoid the dangerously high and growing levels of inequality in the US and, increasingly, in Canada.
There are no perfect systems, no perfect countries - to suggest we can't do better by emulating at least some of the elements which have achieved better results in places like your homeland is defeatism, in my view.
anarcho, you're right about the provincial party here in BC - the leadership candidates in the recent contest practically turned themselves into pretzels trying to avoid the 'socialist' label.
They'd have been better to admit that they believe in real change and not simply avoid the issue.
In many ways, Obama has fallen into the same trap of trying to be all things to all people.
Such mealy mouthed attitudes belong to the washed up federal Liberals - let them have them.
zalm
40 weeks ago
It is to laugh...
When the leader of a major authoritarian party like the BC Fiberals calls for more state intervention in the lives of its people by paying them to quit smoking with taxpayer dollars, whether they need the money or not, one can only stand open-mouthed in awe.
When the so-called free-enterprise party determines that it's necessary to provide subsidies to businesses like the subsidies to the Truck Loggers association in the event of a business deal gone bad, one can only wonder what the definition of "free enterprise" can be.
When the Fiberals decide that it's necessary to raise the minimum wage rate "because it's been held down too long", one can only ask who's kidding whom?
In Canada, a land where the roads are free to drive and make money on, (except for the few that have been privatized to subsidize a "capitalist" economy); where schools are free to Grade 12 and greatly subsidized beyond that; where you don't have to bankrupt your family to get emergency health care, yet doctors themselves may incorporate as profit-making corporations to shelter much of their average $190,000 salary from tax; where your tax dollars pay your military to not only shelter under the nuclear umbrella of another country, but also project your power overseas into business that does not concern you; where businesses still seek (and receive!) massive subsidies to build cars and jetliners and trains and buses for domestic and export markets that are themselves so uneconomic as to be abandoned by most other countries; when one looks at the total intervention of the state into the lives of ordinary Canadians in order to give it a GINI the envy of only a few dozen other countries in the world....
...it's hard to complain about socialism. Unless you really don't know anything at all about socialism. And it appears a couple of commenters here know nothing at all.
anarcho
40 weeks ago
Ah Zalm!
You are talking about the socialism for the rich. But that kind is OK and it is called capitalism. The problem arises when you have socialism for the ordinary folks like you or me - now that's really bad!
Grumpy
40 weeks ago
The NDP are neither
socialist (what ever that mens) or social democratic; it is an opportunistic labour party.
The previous two NDP governments were anti-Social Credit and when the stink of that party rose to an inexcusable level, the public voted accordingly.
The Glen Clark government was far from being socialist, as it cut welfare to the bone, etc. The Clark NDP came to grief basically on one major issue, "fast ferries", which the ruling Liberal party still desperately try to make the NDP wear the issue like an Albatross around their neck.
The previous NDP leader, what's her name. clearly didn't understand politics and blundered on and on, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in two elections and was finally tossed by the party as unelectable.
The new boy on the block, clearly has a tough road to hold, but he is neither a socialist or a social democrat, rather he is an opportunist who seeks to gain favour from the government unions, hence the BCTF's outrageous and silly demands.
It is the secret promises that the NDP have made with government unions that shapes their party's agenda and nothing more.
Sadly, the corrupted mainstream media, especially in the USA has made the word socialist and socialism on par with NAZI style fascism, while at the same time making the terms freedom, democracy and free-Enterprise religious nirvana.
If the BC NDP wish to gain power in BC, they must cut their apron strings with the federal party and run on a BC first campaign, something I just do not see happening.
G West
40 weeks ago
@Grumpy
Please, pray tell, what actual 'evidence' do you have for this statement:... "the secret promises that the NDP have made with government unions that shapes their party's agenda and nothing more"?
I'd suggest you have none.
raging senior
40 weeks ago
NDP AND UNIONS ONE AND THE SAME re: woodworker
If the Unions could deliver all their members votes to the NDP, they would have governed more than 13 years of BC history. Contrary to public opinion very few Union members vote NDP. This is probably because of the Right Wing Media. If the NDP had done one tenth of what the Liberals have done in the last decade there would be rioting in the streets. If the Media would publish the BC HYDRO mandate on buying IPP power the same as they did the NDP fast ferries, I do not think the Liberals polling numbers would be as high as they are.
metacomet
40 weeks ago
Christy Clark vs the BC Liberal Party
Christy Clark wants to be the boss of BC but before she can do that she has to be the boss of the BC Liberal Party where there is a decided lack of enthusiasm for her (virtually none of their caucus supported her leadership bid) and especially for her early election promise (many of them stand to lose their seats.) It might also have something to do with her being a fly in the ointment with regard to shady arrangements between the party and some of its favourite friends in the private sector, arrangements made before she won the leadership and which she might only now be apprized. She has already indicated that she'd be willing to sacrifice the most egregious ones as part of a populist campaign.
One way to bridge this gulf is to reach some sort of compromise, caucus loyalty and enthusiasm in return for postponing an election, providing enough time to make compromise arrangements that protect the interests of private sector friends of the party or to cement deals that have not yet become fully entrenched. To some extent this would narrow Christy's freedom of movement and might also underscore the party's already sullied reputation as dishonest.
Another way would be to call an early election, effectively culling BC Liberal MLAs (those who would not run for re-election and those who would lose their incumbency.) Christy might end up leader of the Official Opposition, but at least she'd be boss of her own party. And she'd be absolved from "honouring" all those shady deals made by her predecessors, letting the NDP take the heat. The question is whether Christy has that kind of long-term commitment. If she goes for an early election it would suggest that she does.
Grumpy
40 weeks ago
@ G West
CN CEO, a great contributer to the BC Liberals, he gets a railway when they gain power.
BC unions contribute to the NDP and I'll bet there are nudge, nudges - wink, winks for better contracts, etc.
Why then would unions contribute to the NDP?
No one gives monies to political parties unless they want their ear, contracts, railways, highways, etc. if and when they gain power.
It is the way of BC politics.
G West
40 weeks ago
@ Grumpy
Still no proof.
Just idle speculation.
How come?
Grumpy
40 weeks ago
And did the public know.....
about the Campbell CN deal for BC Rail before the election?
Nope, Nada.
Sadly our politics are such that secret deals become unsecured a few month after an election.
Union/BC NDP deals will be clearly evident if Dix wins and with Cummins in the mix, that if is becoming bigger every week.
Dan the socialist
40 weeks ago
Why have a fixed election
Why have a fixed election date law when it can be changed on a whim?
Unless John Cummins and the cons can go up in polling and steal support from the Libs and split the vote, the Libs will win again. The NDP also screwed up picking Dix. It is not that he is bad but he has to much baggage from the Glen Clark days and the anti NDP media in this province will jump on that and how he had to resign yet they will be quiet on all the Liberal shenanigans...Don't forget the NDP has never won a two way race ever in BC...Also strange that the 3 times the NDP won (all due to vote splitting) they get less popular support than when it is basically a two party race...
shepsil
40 weeks ago
One BC Liberal MLA supports Christy & its not Kevin Falcon!
Its well known that Kevin Falcon wants CC's job and his best bet is to have an election where she loses. The knives are out for CC. 3 BC Liberal MLAs do not support BC Liberal supported Incinerators. Blair Lekstrom & CC couldn't get their stories staight on the gas tax & the Evergreen Line, Barry Penner just resigned to make way for someone else to represent his riding and riding nominations for BC Liberals are popping up in local newspapers across the province.
Odds are we are having a fall election!
kmdyson
40 weeks ago
"Stop apologizing for being socialist."
I could not AGREE more...
I am a socialist and never use the euphemism 'progressive' except in sarcastic parody. We are what we are and should be proud of it...
John Corman
40 weeks ago
GWEst - Second of All
I'm surprised that you would make the statement:
"On the other hand, the capitalist/free market bullshit from the US, Canada and Great Britain have been shown to be bankrupt in terms of ideas except for increasing the concentration of wealth in fewer and fewer hands."
Isn't it a fact that what has got countries like the UK, the PIGS and the US into problems is the socialist concept itself. That is that governments can cure all the human problems by spending money on them. It's now obvious that it doesn't work.
We're fortunate that in Canada, Trudeau got us into financial difficulties early enough that we had to address them by the early nineties. The problems were fairly easy to fix then with rapidly growing economies. (excepting BC obviously) Now, it's virtually impossible for many countries, including the US to get from under their debt catastrophe, imho.
G West
40 weeks ago
John Corman
In a word, you're WRONG.
Capitalism has become, for lack of a simpler explanation, little more than corporate welfare.
It isn't socialism that is the problem - countries like Denmark, Sweden and Norway - with the highest marginal tax rates - are not suffering these problems.
You should ask yourself why.
And, while you're thinking about it, have a look at what Warren Buffett said in an Oped in the New York Times:
here's a link for you...http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/15/opinion/stop-coddling-the-super-rich.html
G West
40 weeks ago
here, I'll post it again
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/15/opinion/stop-coddling-the-super-rich.html?_r=1
John Corman
40 weeks ago
GWest - Maybe You're Right but, maybe not
Just maybe the major problem facing our western democracies is that our governments aren't spending enough money for welfare programs for their citizens.
Just a friendly word of advice. You can advocate that position all you want in this group but, don't make a big pitch in front of adults. You'll be laughed out of where ever you are.
You often bring up the wonders of Sweden. Are you aware that their corporate tax rates are lower than Canada's and that their GST rate is 25% except for food at 12%.
Their personal tax rates aren't goofy by any means. It appears that the highest rate in Sweden is about 55%. Low income people get hit more hashly than in Canada by the looks of it.
Frank
40 weeks ago
John
If you don't want to get laughed out of every room you may find yopurself in, you shouldn't post nonsense claiming it was George Bush's "socialist" policies that brought the world's finances down.
Or perhaps it was those nasty communists running Wall Street eh?
Lay down and put a cold cloth on your forehead and wait for sanity to return.
John Corman
40 weeks ago
Frank
If you don't have anything intelligent to add then don't bother and then neither of us will be wasting our time.
Frank
40 weeks ago
John
I figured you'd attack me for pointing out the obvious. Its a right-winger thing isn't?
Don't worry, I never expect you to say anything remoptely intelligent and thus I'm never surprised.
The next thing out of your mouth will probably be to blame the financial problems of the world on sun spots or Martians.
G West
40 weeks ago
@John Corman
One might have thought that just once you could actually try to engage in something other than personally offensive commentary.
I've pushed the offensive button on you again.
This is the relevant rule about posting here:
Maybe you should read it and take it to heart.
Now, what do you think about what Warren Buffett said in his Oped?
G West
40 weeks ago
As for the suggestion that you think Sweden's tax rates are fine
I'm pleased to hear that.
Denmark's top marginal rate is 62.8%, Norway's is 47.8% and Sweden's is 56.5%.
You might not be pleased to know that the level at which those taxes cut in is considerably lower than the situation here in Canada.
In fact, in terms of the per country average wage for a single taxpayer the top marginal rate hits folks in Denmark at 1.0 times their average wage; in Sweden it is 1.5 and in Norway 1.6.
In Canada, the top marginal rate of tax doesn't hit until earnings are 2.9 times the average wage.
If you want more data, I can provide it if you'll send me an email to
Have a nice weekend.
zalm
40 weeks ago
John Corman
What's your solution to the increasing disparities in wealth in most Western countries? I'm sure you know what a GINI is - look at which way most of them are going on that Nationmaster site I told you about.
I don't see the billionaires working any harder or smarter than the guys collecting bottles and cans outside my own house.
Frank
40 weeks ago
zalm
He thinks government is the problem and that we need as little of it as possible. In other words we should follow Somalia's example, they're the shining example of all the good things that can happen when you don't have a government.
John Corman
40 weeks ago
GWest - Another of your diversions.
Three of your constant themes are (1) the evils of low corporate tax rates, (2) the evils of Value Added Taxes (HST) and (3) your admiration for anything Swedish.
So, when you bring up Sweden as a beacon for the world it's, in my opinion, reasonable to remind you of Sweden's low corporate tax rate and high HST rates.
But, you keep finding a way to avoid having to address these little inconvenient facts, don't you?
I'll repeat you words of wisdom to me a while back;
"Next time see if you can actually keep your remarks to the issue at hand..."
G West
40 weeks ago
John Corman
Don't go away mad.
Denmark's also rated the 'happiest' place in the world.
You can read about that here - where their high taxes are also mentioned:
http://abcnews.go.com/2020/story?id=4086092&page=1
Cheerio!
John Corman
40 weeks ago
Zalm - A Solution?
I didn't realize I was looking for a solution to changes in your GINI coefficients. But, since you ask, isn't this another example of a stat that can be used as many ways as there are users. Sweden - 25, USA - 43. Obviously, all the Swedes that wanted to be high tech billionaires went to the states. Somalia - near zero, obviously a wonderful place to leave except the stat means that everyone is equally poor. (the USSR likely had a very low GINI much to your liking, I presume)
This brings to mind the LICO stat used in Canada by groups to moan of the social injustices in this country. Using that same stat in Somalia would indicate there are no poor people living there.
These stats are very important to people that believe, as you likely do that the economy is a zero sum game. I personally don't believe it as the likes of Bill Gates actually created wealth and I don't begrudge him a dime.
G West
40 weeks ago
Let's stick to the facts then
Since you're so convinced things are just ducky here in BC AND you're apparently unconvinced by statistics that people the world over recognize and value as accurate and meaningful, perhaps you'd care to get your teeth into this:
http://www.firstcallbc.org/pdfs/EconomicEquality/3-status%20report.pdf
Bill Gates, essentially, stole the operating system he sold to IBM as DOS...I guess that's just part of what you deem to be 'creative' eh?
Maybe you'd be interested in 'that' bit of news too.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_43/b3905109_mz063.htm
Come back when you've actually understood how the system you seem to be in thrall to actually works.
As for me, I’ll take Warren Buffett’s word for it that the rich and the ultra rich are getting a free ride.
Cheers.
RickW
40 weeks ago
Question:
And then there is (was) Pablo Escabar:
While seen as an enemy of the United States and Colombian governments, Escobar was a hero to many in Medellín; he was a natural at public relations and he worked to create goodwill among Colombia's poor. A lifelong sports fan, he was credited with building football stadiums and sponsoring little league football teams in the city. Pablo Escobar was also responsible for the construction of many churches in Medellin gaining popularity inside the local Roman Catholic Church. He worked hard to cultivate his Robin Hood image and frequently distributed money to the poor. He would also build houses for the poor, gaining followers on his way. The population of Medellín often helped Escobar by serving as lookouts, hiding information from the authorities, or doing whatever else they could do to protect him
http://www.medellintraveler.com/escobar.html
So I ask Mr. Corman et al: What is the difference between these gentlemen when it comes to (John Corman's words) "creating wealth"?
Cool Hand
40 weeks ago
G West
Ya know. For once you are actually right!!! haha. Denmark, Sweden, and Norway ALL have centre/centre-right governments!!!!!
Yeah. I know. Again, Denmark has a centre/centre right government! Who woulda thunk! haha
G West
40 weeks ago
Lukie
Sorry you missed what was an interesting discussion.
I don't care what the current flavour du jour is, the countries in question are high-tax socialistic welfare states.
Too bad we don't have the same here - we'd be better off - the current right wingbats in charge in Denmark wouldn't dare touch the system which works so well for the majority of Danes.
Fact is, I don't care what the flavour is as long as the results aren't rotten and getting worse - as ours are here in BC under Miss Christy (Campbell in a skirt).
And, I'll push the offensive button on you once again...
Have a nice weekend!
Cool Hand
40 weeks ago
G West
I always alert folk to read your comments here on the Tyee. Priceless. haha
Intellectually dishonest extraordinaire. That's their take.
And you should also be the "poster boy" for the BC NDP. Santa, that's all I want for Christmas. haha
G West
40 weeks ago
Lukie
I've just pushed it one more time.
zalm
40 weeks ago
John Corman
"Obviously, all the Swedes that wanted to be high tech billionaires went to the states. "
Obviously, you're wrong again. Old news, but indicative.
http://www.forbes.com/global/2001/0319/034.html
Newer research indicates that all the "entrepreneurial" types so hard at work in the US have actually not been making money or improving the lot of society, but have actually been trying too hard to tie up patents in order to ensure profit, rather than progress.
http://www.economist.com/node/21526370
"I didn't realize I was looking for a solution to changes in your GINI coefficients."
You aren't. You wouldn't look for anything that might damage your precious tooth-fairy belief in "free markets" (in whatever bizarre way you define them) as your reward for being born into the right stratum of society. But when I point the indicators out to you and show you that they're going the wrong way year-over-year, increasing inequality, you haven't the shame to admit that maybe your precious "free markets" don't have the answers that people are looking for.
Yap about Bill Gates and his predatory ways all you like, I'm not impressed. The fact remains that:
"These stats are very important to people that believe, as you likely do that the economy is a zero sum game."
...and what's absolutely true is the things people purchase are the zero-sum game, because various parties in the world are restricting, not expanding, peoples' choice in necessities like shelter, healthy food, fuel, education, health care and public transportation. Trickle-down only seems to work for luxuries, and that rather badly, as the current recession-cum-depression well proves.
The few oats that fall through the horse for the sparrows aren't enough to keep a roof over the head or hunger from the dinner table.
But you go ahead believeing your personal tooth fairy and I'll go on ignoring you. This was a waste of time.
John Corman
40 weeks ago
GWest - Denmark
I suspect after this post you'll bring up Bulgaria or something else as obscure to our discussion.
You state:
"Denmark's also rated the 'happiest' place in the world"
Their corporate tax rate is 25%, lower than Canada and their HST is 25%.
It's very apparent to me that the Scandinavians and a large percentage of us Canadians understand that low corporate tax rates and a value added tax are keys to a good economy. (I would resist getting the HST that high though)
You don't seem to want to come to grips with that, do you?
G West
40 weeks ago
You really DON'T know what you're talking about, do you?
Here are the rates of federal tax on corporate profits for the past several years:
* 21% before January 1, 2008
* 19.5% effective January 1, 2008
* 19% effective January 1, 2009
* 18% effective January 1, 2010
* 16.5% effective January 1, 2011
* 15% effective January 1, 2012
The (Jan 2010) rate of provincial tax on corporate profits in BC is 4.5% or 12%.
At the moment the US federal corporate tax rate is 35%...I assume you'll stop crying the blues for corporations in B.C whether the HST stays or goes.
I assume you can do the math..
John Corman
39 weeks ago
GWest - ?????????????????
The debate you and I are having is that I'm trying to get you to acknowledge that the countries you're so enamored with have corporate tax rates less than Canada. And, that you should at least consider why these countries would legislate such measures.
You apparently will not even discuss the issue.
So, what do you do. You find some stats that you were previously unaware of and, assume that I wasn't aware of either. And yet, several times I've told you that the Canadian corporate rate is higher than in Sweden and Denmark at about 28% versus 25% there. So, why would you go to this effort to prove me right.
Am I dealing with someone about fourteen years old?
G West
39 weeks ago
John Corman - I didn't - here, I'll do the math for you...
I'm sick and tired of you and your nonsense.
The current rate of corporate tax, federal plus provincial (at the lower rate) is 21% - 16.5 + 4.5 = 21%....as of January 1, 2012 the rate will be 1.5% less.
Agreed?
The vast majority of corporate entities in British Columbia pay this rate - which is less than the rate for Denmark which you cited.
Agreed?
The Canadian corporate rate in British Columbia IS NOT HIGHER THAN THE DENMARK RATE.
Period.
I'm sich and tired of this. You have not once posted anything which is factually correct about ANY aspect of taxation in this country to date.
You are waating my time and the time of the others who read the material here.
I already told you if you want me to send you the materials you need to read to actually LEARN about the system of tax and what's wrong with it here in Canada that I'm willing to do that - privately. I posted my email address for you to use and you refuse to take up my offer.
I posted nothing that I was NOT AWARE OF - as for what you actually know, I have no confidence whatever that you actually KNOW anything.
And, you end your post above me here with another personal reference that violates the rules here at Tyee.
For that, I'm pushing the offensive button on you one more time.
You are clearly incapable, for whatever reason, of engaging in any kind of a rational discussion without resorting to ad hominem insults.
G West
39 weeks ago
Oh, and one other tiny point
The lower rate for BC is actually 2.5% (not the 4.5% I quoted above).
The income eligible for the lower rate is determined using the British Columbia business limit of $500,000 - this also changed on January 1, 2010 from $400,000.
The higher rate of British Columbia income tax was
* 11% effective July 1, 2008;
* 10.5% effective January 1, 2010; and is now 10% effective January 1, 2011.
The higher rate applies to all income not eligible for the lower rate.
Obviously, for the small businesses which make up the majority of BC companies - even if they have some portion of their income taxed at the higher rate - they will not be paying the kind of rates you claim they will.
There is a huge difference 'average' tax and marginal tax and people who quote the top marginal rate as if it applied to all income (personal or corporate) are in the business of deception. Pure and simple.
Corporations in BC do very nicely - too nicely for the good of the average British Columbian citizen and certainly too nicely for the good of the people who ought to benefit from taxation in this province.
For too long people in the board rooms (and the people who defend them) have had the ear of people like Gordon Campbell and Christina Clark, Kevin Falcon and Rich Coleman.
It is long past time that every British Columbian understand who's really benefiting from the current tax policies in this province and this country.
Canadians are decent people - they deserve better.
They deserve to know the truth.
Frank
39 weeks ago
Luke
Are you saying the governments in Scandinavia are right-wing like Bush and Harper?
I find that hard to believe.
Frank
39 weeks ago
John Corman
Still waiting for the day you guys on the far right that complain about Canada being "socialist" move to a place like Somalia which should be a libertarian wet-dream.
Frank
39 weeks ago
Plumbing the depths
"I always alert folk to read your comments here on the Tyee. Priceless. haha"
That probably explains why BC Liberal support has tanked.
"Intellectually dishonest extraordinaire. That's their take."
Always good to know Jock Finlayson is reading the Tyee.
"And you should also be the "poster boy" for the BC NDP. Santa, that's all I want for Christmas. haha"
Posting "haha" and "LOL" and other nonsense on the internet in order to look superior is so 1995.