Can NDP Tiptoe to Victory?
Polls show BC's Liberals are wounded. Carole James had better not assume they are dead.
NDP leader James: the tiger's bite?
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BC Liberals' 'Political Suicide Note'
What Premier Campbell won't tell you about the disastrous HST. How to help stop it.
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BC residents fuming over HST, survey finds
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NDP a positive alternative to Liberal lies: BC NDP leader James
The latest polls put Gordon (Pinocchio) Campbell in deep doo-doo at 23 points behind the NDP.
First, let's talk about what this means for the NDP. As Carole James looks at the numbers she will note that while the Liberals are way down, neither she nor her party have much benefited in the new numbers. In fact, the Green Party and the moribund Conservatives get more than one fifth of the action and though neither of them shows any ability to win seats, they can split the vote.
It also shows a remarkable opportunity for a new party of the centre. In spite of the idiotic blatherings of former Tory MP Randy White, the Conservatives are not going to get heaps of support because those angry voters won't vote NDP thus rocketing some as yet unnamed Conservative into the Premier's office.
Because Mr. White evidently doesn't understand B.C. politics, here are some reasons why the local branch of Mr. Harper's party is not even in the picture.
1. As Gordon Wilson understood and acted upon when he became leader of the BC Liberals, he immediately shed all connections to the federal party. British Columbians don't like federal parties in their provincial elections. This doesn't apply to the NDP because they have no chance of forming a federal government.
2. As emphasis to number one, a provincial Conservative party will forever be blamed for what Stephen Harper is doing and has done.
3. The political vacuum is at the centre, not the far right. British Columbia is not a right-wing province. Though we have elected lots of Conservatives and before them Reform Party MPs, that's because we wanted reform and, given the stark choices, the Tories seemed a better bet than either of the other parties. Rafe's Axiom II applied -- "You don't have to be a 10 in politics, you can be a 3 if everyone else is a 2."
Campbell will not be the opponent
Back to James. What does she do?
Her present policy, evidently, is to avoid the arena but to tiptoe around the spectators, telling chambers of commerce that she and her party are safe to vote for. I believe that's a naïve approach.
She must judge the next election with the realistic strategy that since the Liberals will have a new leader, probably Carole Taylor, Diane Watts or Mike DeJong, she must govern herself accordingly. As long as James evades the issues of this day (more on issues in a moment), she's really no better off than a Carole Taylor or Diane Watts who will be able to say "I wasn't part of the past; let us deal with the future of this great province, blah, blah, blah" In essence their position will be "new pitcher, new strikes."
Since most Liberal candidates will not have been in the present caucus, the Campbell baggage will be reduced, leaving James to face a newly branded Liberal party. She should prepare with that in mind.
Here's the important part for the NDP. Either they take a stand against the James strategy or they get rid of her. They must make this decision before the end of this year. The NDP have a glorious history of eating their whelp in the manner of a frightened mother mink, a habit they must break now by either support for James' policy or get it over with and install Adrian Dix or Mike Farnworth.
NDP's great opportunity
Assuming the NDP does get its act together, why will a Liberal comeback be difficult if not impossible?
The answer is contained in what will hereafter be called "Rafe's Axiom III," namely, "never create an unpopular issue that will still be around at election time."
To do so, is tantamount to suicide.
When I was in government an eon ago, we had an example of Rafe's Axiom III. We had just been elected and had to clean up an NDP mess. The finance minister, the late Evan Wolfe, brought his proposed budget to cabinet, which called for raises in the price of rye, scotch, vodka, gin and beer.
Premier Bill Bennett gave one of his famous black scowls and said "don't tax the workingman's beer -- do you want every voter in his watering hole reminded, every day from now until voting day, of our unpopular 1976 budget, which they otherwise would have forgotten?"
Lousy logic but great politics.
Let's look at Premier Campbell's violations of Axiom III:
1. Thanks to the Basi-Virk trial, the offloading of BC Rail to CN will still be an issue in 2013 -- so will the fact that he had sworn in two elections that he wouldn't do it.
2. Because of his spectacular election falsehoods about the huge deficit B.C. had, relying on ancient but much more digestible numbers, the Liberals will not be able to rely upon the myth that they know best how to manage our financial affairs.
3. The Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) will be a constant reminder, as beer would have been in Bill Bennett's day, of this hated tax, an issue spliced with election untruths about it. In this latter regard, let me tell you that no deal like this with Ottawa can happen suddenly. In my experience, to put this whole deal together would required at least three months, perhaps longer.
4. One can only guess at what consequences will flow from Bill Vander Zalm and Chris Delaney's successful campaign against the HST but, sure as God made little green apples, they won't help the government!
5. As I predicted back in 2002, the destruction of wild salmon by lice emanating from fish farms will be very much in play in 2013 and, rightly, the Liberals will wear it. It's now clear that Pinocchio and his minions knew about the sea lice problem before they removed the moratorium on increasing the number or capacity of fish cages and that they then hid the scientific evidence about that problem from the public while maintaining that all the science was on their side.
6. Pinocchio's unbelievable rivers policy, where large international companies are destroying our rivers to create power at a time when BC Hydro doesn't need it, forcing Hydro to export it for half or less than what they paid for it, will be front and centre -- especially if, as I suspect, it results in civil disobedience.
7. More and more the Campbell decision to destroy wild habitat and farmland with his idiotic Gateway decision will be seen not only as environmentally destructive but lousy economics as it becomes obvious to all that Deltaport will not need to expand now that the Northwest Passage is open and the huge Panama Canal upgrades are finished.
8. A very antsy bunch of voters will, every day it pays a large toll on the new Highway 1, be reminded of why it hates the Campbell government.
9. Above all, Campbell and his government will be seen as serial tellers of blatant falsehoods.
Pussycat politics won't win
Does all of this bode so evil for the Liberals that they will be facing a 2002-like wipeout?
On the merits it should, but merit doesn't always count in politics. However they face this dilemma -- if Campbell goes, the leadership contest will serve, as did the NDP convention that elected Ujjal Dosanjh, a public display of very soiled linen indeed.
On the other hand, if they do not replace Campbell, the next election could be a wipeout, especially if a new version of the old Social Credit Party with a credible leader (John Cummins and Vicki Huntington come to mind) appears on the scene.
Finally (no saying thank God!) all of this makes the issue of NDP leadership and policy the deciding factor.
Can pussycat politics prevail in this province? Or does winning require a snarling tiger? It's one or the other, folks.
The New Democratic Party must answer that question soon.
Very soon. ![[Tyee]](http://thetyee.cachefly.net/ui/img/ico_fishie.png){kind=small}
freebc
18-07-2010
What about Refed?
Rafe is showing his age and unwillingness to abandon British Parliamentary rule when he discounts BC Refederation as a viable centrist party in BC.
Last election, the BC Conservatives which the king maker columnists are attempting to crown, ran 24 candidates. BC Refederation ran 22.
No where was BC Refed given a fair shake. All of the talk show hosts, the columnists, especially you Rafe, would not even say our name in case people actually took a look at us and gave us our due credibility.
BC Refederation is all about democracy and most of all CONTROL of politicians.
How is legislated controls on politicians a bad thing. How is binding initiatives a bad thing?
How is easier recall of rogue politicians a bad thing?
How is a voter-veto of any legislation a bad thing?
Arrogantly ignoring BC Refed is not commenting on the true political scene. BC Refed is the most centered party in BC right now. Compare others to us. We are unbought, and unbossed.
samuidave
19-07-2010
"British Columbia is not a right-wing province"
... and after nine years and counting of Gordon Campbell's regional fascism, that is the political understatement of the decade.
For a province that has, quite literally, just about everything an area could possibly need to be self-sustaining, a central party could not undue his regime's damage quickly enough.
We need to look after our 'BC community', first and foremost. The province needs change that is going to re-democratize the political landscape so the people's will is represented.
Since the government has shown no earnest desire to govern conscionably over the last 100-odd years, and the general public has shown no desire to inform itself on most all things politic, we need safeguards put into place to protect our provincial community and it's individuals.
Now if this is the case, as I suggest it is, then how can we possibly have a "political vacuum at the centre"? Let's try:
* proportional representation for MLAs;
* effective recall legislation;
* corporate lobbyists banned;
* a free vote in the House on all matters; and
* Party and campaign donations limited to a nominal amount
provided by constituents only; consider a maximum of $100 to remove the money politics.
No, what we do have in BC, and across Canada, is the fraudulent exploitation of a loophole in our democratic process. We have experienced a succession of politicos each increasingly exploiting this hole, each taking turns ripping it open wider and wider for the benefit of fewer and fewer.
Our historical Gradualist approach to social-democratic reform has been swamped by the repeated poundings of unconscionable political behaviour. Either we fix the problem while there is a chance to do so without resorting to a people's revolution or, if history shines a light, we will predictably become a failed state after a term of tyranny.
Although he is not a complete despot, Gordon Campbell behaves as though he has an inalienable right to govern. We have only ourselves to blame, for our foolish behaviour has given him that impression.
pwlg
19-07-2010
stripping away local and regional government rights
Added to the list of improvemnts needed to BC politics is the rewriting of some of the worst centralized legislation that Campbell and his cabinet have created, the stripping of powers of local and regional governments and the downloading of provincial social responsibilities not to mention the worst child labour laws in the free world.
pwlg
19-07-2010
carny slang
Carnival slang has some very revealing parallels to the Campbell government.
The term BC in carny slang means to "be cool" in that one needs to stop whatever scam your doing or trying to get the rubes to believe. In B.C. this term is used by Campbell's Propaganda Affairs Bureau (PAB) to stop Cabinet Ministers from telling the truth.
So whenever you here the term Believe BC or such other dribble containing the acronym BC coming out of the PAB you know that its a cloaking device to inform cabinet ministers to check in with the PAB to get their latest spin to depart to the midway masses.
Ramona777
19-07-2010
The NDP Are NOT the Alternative
Last week, after Ida Chong's exorbitant per diem costs were revealed. She charges almost $7,000 for meals for one year, on top of her $150,000 plus salary.
Unbelievably the NDP came to her defence.
What that says is that the NDP are at the trough too and they're not being very honest about how many of their MLAs gobble up the $61 per day meal allowances.
While this is a small matter in the scheme of things, it's indicative of a certain kind of attitude isn't it?
Entitlement. Arrogance. Dishonesty.
Where is the third party that will save BC from these two duplicitous gangs?
Van Isle
19-07-2010
Rafe, I disagree with you on
Rafe, I disagree with you on the comment about BC not being right wing. Maybe the ordinary voter isn't but the establishment is and they're the ones who control our policies and politics. Occassionaly I listen to the CKNW (yes, that's right, your old stomping grounds) and hear some of the comments by the average caller. It is as if most of the callers are in a bubble and think that the Liberals are doing a wonderful job in running this province. Just listen on Saturday mornings to Gordo's nitwit brother do his spleen-venting about financial/economic matters. His latest schtik is blaming the European 'socialist' countries for the global economic crisis and the sad thing is that there are a whole lot of people who believe in that crap.
offended
19-07-2010
The "average" caller to NW
isn't touting the Liberals right now save for the few that work at the Public Affairs Bureau. Or their friends.
Carol James needs to go. Terrible leader. Hiding out, hoping to get elected by default, does not inspire me.
I used to donate to the party regularly. No more. Not since Ms. James refused to give any support to a union that was involved in a labour dispute with a company that had replacement workers come in from the States to do the work of BCer's. Shameful disregard for workers' rights; and boo out of Carol.
This latest act of substerfuge by her, hiding out while everyone else rails against the HST, is par for the course.
Not a leader. Get a new one, and there might be some support.
Oh, and quit taking outrageous meal allowances, as mentioned by Warbler.
Buy yer own darn dinner. You can certainly afford it.
CanadianLatitude
19-07-2010
The NDP need the centre and
The NDP need the centre and right to split the vote. Even Barrett so called landslide in the 70's the NDP only won because of a 4 party split with a hair above 38% of the vote.
The NDP can not win with Carole James. She is to nice and the lojnger she stays on the more she hurts the party.
Look at the polls Libs way down yet NDP only up 2-4% from last election depending on what poll...
Plus Campbell will be gone and a pretty face like Dianne Watts will take over, all will be forgotten, and we will have BC's first elected female Premier (Rita was ordained not elected by the people)
The HST rantings will be a distant memory come next election. What happened to all the outraged people over the carbon tax? Nothing as less than a year later Campbell wins again...
Matt T.
19-07-2010
Carole James - Mother Teresa
Carole James is BC's own version of Mother Teresa. The LIEberals are collapsing and with a 23-point NDP lead, what's not to like?
Why would our party even think of getting rid of a leader with such a huge political lead? Nowhere else would one think along those lines.
David Schreck puts it succinctly: "New Democrats approach leadership races like gladiators going at each other with meat axes at a distance of two feet."
A leadership convention could tear the party apart and leave the door open for another LIEberal government win. Does that make any sense?
warbler
19-07-2010
Matt T.
Even Schreck is astute enough to know that 23-point leads 3 years before an election mean absolutely nothing. If anything, such a big lead dangerously gives the opposition a false sense of security.
I do wonder if it's getting a bit late for a leadership change. The time for that would have been right after the election; James should have stepped down on election night. The party has rolled the dice on her, and it's a big gamble. I say NDP loss in 2013 if she stays. She's been nowhere to be seen in the HST debate, nowhere to be seen in most other issues since the last election. I think you could have a mascot dog at the helm of the BC NDP right now and still have a 25 point lead. This lead reflects Campbell's arrogant, bone-headed ways, more than Carole's skills as an opposition leader. Trust me, the Liberals may be bad, but they aren't stupid and have some very clever dark knights currently plotting their way out of this mess. This plot will be a very deliberate, well-timed strategy to put in place a new Campbell replacement just when Carole and her NDP gladiators are least expecting it or wanting it. That's when you will really see Carole crumble under the weight of the political pressure of the day. Just imagine Carole vs. Watts or Taylor in a televised debate or even in the daily post-QP scrums.... 'nuff said.
A leadership convention does carry risks, but at this point the risks associated with a convention seem lesser than the risks associated with maintaining an inept leader.